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 Post subject: April 1st Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +0.40
PostPosted: Mon Apr 04, 2011 1:18 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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040111-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-40.png [ 78.16 KiB | Viewed 274 times ]

click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
Only two trades today due to a personal family problem. In fact, I stopped trading just prior the biggest price move of the trading day...I called it a day around 1:44pm est and then Emini TF made its big move downward around 2:20pm est. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +0.40 points or $40.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=802.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=137&t=1015

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Strong Jobs Report Pushes Stocks Higher
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
April 1, 2011: 4:14 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose moderately on Friday, the first day of the second quarter, bolstered by the government's stronger-than-expected jobs report.

The closely watched report showed the U.S. economy created 216,000 jobs in March -- easily topping forecasts -- and the unemployment rate dipped to 8.8%.

At the preliminary close, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) climbed 56 points, or 0.5%, to 12376; the S&P 500 (SPX) added 6.5 points, or 0.5%, to 1332; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 8.5 points, or 0.3%, to 2790.

Friday's gains were broad, with 23 out of the Dow's 30 members ending higher on the day. The Dow now stands near its 52-week high, a sign of how well this market continues to perform despite the problems abroad, investors said.

"These mildly positive economic reports are going to keep the market moving higher, despite high oil prices and ongoing geopolitical issues," said Stephen Carl, head equity trader with Williams Capital.

Friday's jobs numbers are the latest economic data to show that the U.S. economy remains in a slow, but steady, period of economic recovery. While still elevated, the unemployment rate now sits at its lowest level in two years.

"We are doing modestly better than what most had expected, but the economy is far from perfect," said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank.

* Video - Nasdaq, ICE bid for NYSE

Investors were also digesting a new offer for the NYSE (NYX, Fortune 500) from Nasdaq (NDAQ) and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE). Nasdaq and ICE offered $42.50 a share for NYSE Euronext, topping the bid from rival Deutsche Boerse by nearly 19%. Shares of NYSE jumped 13%, Nasdaq shares closed up 9% and ICE shares fell 3%.

On Thursday, U.S. stocks ended the day narrowly mixed, but the first quarter finished with solid gains despite geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, and the March earthquake and nuclear crisis in Japan.

Companies: Shares of Krispy Kreme (KKD) plunged 21%, a day after the doughnut marketer reported earnings that came in well short of analyst expectations.

Office Depot (ODP, Fortune 500) shares sank 9% after the office supply retailer disclosed that it will have to restate its 2010 financial results after the IRS denied a claim for $80 million in tax benefits.

Ford (F, Fortune 500)'s monthly U.S. auto sales surpassed General Motors' (GM) for the first time since 1998.

Economy: The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell slightly to a reading of 61.2 in March, compared with the 61.4 reading that economists had expected.

The Commerce Department's report on construction spending showed a decline of 1.4% in February, worse than the decline of 0.7% economists were looking for.

World markets: Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite rose 1.3%, and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 1.2%. But Japan's Nikkei eased 0.5%, after a report showed auto sales in the nation plunged 37% in March.

European posted solid gains. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.7%, the DAX in Germany gained 2% and France's CAC 40 climbed by 1.6%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for May delivery rose $1.40 to $108.12 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery slipped $11.20 to $1,428.10 an ounce.

* Why Pimco cut its bond holdings

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.48% from 3.45% late Thursday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks started the second quarter on a strong note as the Dow set a new bull market high on the back of a better-than-expected jobs report. Some late selling interest ate into gains, though.

Uncertainty ahead of the monthly payrolls report kept stocks stuck in a narrow trading range during the prior session, but the mood among traders improved markedly today. Initial buying interest was underpinned by strong gains among many of the major equity averages abroad, but the positive tone was further solidified by an encouraging payrolls report.

According to the latest data, nonfarm payrolls increased by 216,000 in March. Private payrolls increased by 230,000. The consensus call among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for respective increases of 185,000 and 203,000. The greater-than-expected increases helped the headline unemployment rate improve to 8.8% from 8.9% in the face of calls for it to remain unchanged.

The jobs report overshadowed the rest of today's data, which featured a March ISM Index reading of 61.2 and a 1.4% drop in construction spending for February. The ISM was in step with the 61.4 that had been broadly expected, but construction spending was widely anticipated to fall only 0.7%.

Participants responded to the jobs report with a steady, broad-based bid that took the S&P 500 to within a few points of its 52-week high. Meanwhile, the Dow climbed to its best level since June 2008.

However, stocks struggled to hold those levels in the face of a late flurry selling, which actually took the Nasdaq to the neutral line. The Nasdaq's late slip came as participants pressured semiconductor issues. Although renewed interest among buyers helped the tech-rich Nasdaq reclaim some of its gain, semiconductor stocks still settled with a 1.0% loss.

Financials offered leadership after they had lagged during the first part of the week. The sector's 0.8% gain was led by NYSE Euronext (NYX 39.60, +4.43) following news that Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ 28.23, +2.39) and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE 119.75, -3.79) offered to pay $42.50 per share in cash and stock to acquire the company. Deutsche Boerse already made a bid for the company, but the rival offer represents a premium of about 19% over the initial tender.

The financial sector's strength comes after it ended the first quarter with a gain of little more than 3%. That pales considerable to the 16% first quarter gain scored by the energy sector, which advanced a less impressive 0.4% this session. Energy's first quarter run was mostly helped by the rapid rise in oil prices, which actually extended their climb today by setting a new two-year high above $108 per barrel.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials (+0.9%), Financials (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.6%), Consumer Staples (+0.6%), Energy (+0.4%), Materials (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: Tech (-0.1%), Telecom (-0.1%)DJ30 +56.99 NASDAQ +8.53 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +0.4% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +6.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1452/2.12 bln/1149 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2079/910 mln/923

3:45 pm : Trade in commodities was largely based on movement in the dollar, following this morning's NFP number. The dollar index sold off throughout the session to give back gains. Commodities finished mixed on the session, but the grains (+1.4%) sector was once again the leading sector. May corn rallied for 6.1%, following yesterday's 4.5% rally, helped by strength in crude and margin concerns.

May crude oil gained 1.1% to close at $107.94 per barrel. It traded to a fresh ~2.5 yr high, at $108.05, heading into the close of pit trade. May natural gas ended lower by 0.8% to $4.35 per MMBtu.

The pullback in the dollar index helped gold and silver recoup some of their losses. Both metals did finish in negative territory despite their bounce. June gold shed 0.7% to $1428.10 per ounce, while May silver closed down 0.4% to $37.73 per ounce. DJ30 +58.16 NASDAQ +4.63 SP500 +6.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1361/1.7 bln/1248 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1966/610.2 mln/1024

3:00 pm : A recent bout of selling interest has knocked stocks down from afternoon highs. The Nasdaq has actually fallen to the neutral line as tech stocks take one of the harder hits dealt by sellers. Tech stocks are now down 0.1% for the session. Tech was also one of the weakest performing sectors in for the first quarter, during which they achieved only a 3% gain compared to the broad market's 5.4% advance.DJ30 +26.69 NASDAQ +2.01 SP500 +4.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1322/1.56 bln/1268 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2058/515 mln/945

2:30 pm : The Dollar Index has drifted to a session low of 75.85. Its downturn comes as the euro sports a 0.6% gain against the greenback. The euro was last quoted at $1.424. The British pound is up 0.6% against the greenback, too. It was last quoted at $1.612. However, the dollar has climbed 0.9% gainst the yen, which was last quoted at 84.06 yen per dollar.DJ30 +87.19 NASDAQ +17.22 SP500 +10.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1526/1.28 bln/1050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2153/478 mln/815

2:00 pm : Auto sales have been released intermittently throughout the session. The results haven't done much to spur their shares higher, however.

Hyundai is among the most recent to post March results. The company experienced a 32% surge in its America force. Toyota (TM 80.61, +0.36) said that its US sales for March fell 9.2% from the prior year. Honda Motor (HMC 36.96, -0.55) reported an 18.9% increase in sales for its America division. Nissan Motor (NSANY 17.56, -0.09) had a 26.9% increase in March U.S. sales for a company record. Ford (F 15.36, +0.45) reported a 19% increase in sales for the month.DJ30 +85.79 NASDAQ +17.50 SP500 +10.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1506/1.19 bln/1049 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2132/445 mln/814

1:30 pm : The stock market continues to sport a strong gain. The action build's on the S&P 500's first quarter gain of 5.4%, which was its best first quarter performance since 1998. It wasn't as impressive as the 10.2% that it gained during the fouth quarter, though. For comparison, the Dow put together a first quarter gain of 6.4% after it advanced 7.3% in the fourth quarter while the Nasdaq advanced 4.8% in the first quarter following its 12.0% climb in the fourth quarter.DJ30 +75.00 NASDAQ +15.81 SP500 +9.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/1.10 bln/1055 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2118/418 mln/818

1:00 pm : A better-than-expected jobs report has encouraged another round of broad buying interest. The effort has taken the S&P 500 to within a few points of its 52-week high and the Dow to a new bull market high.

Strength among many of the major overseas markets helped propped up stocks this morning. The positive tone was further supported by news that nonfarm payrolls for March increased by 216,000 and that private payrolls climbed by 230,000. Both were better than what had been broadly expected. In turn, the headline unemployment rate eased down to 8.8% from 8.9%, which is where many economists had been expected it to remain.

Other data received less attention. The ISM Index for March came in at 61.2, which is on par with what was expected, but construction spending for February fell a steeper-than-anticipated 1.4%.

Although strength this session is broad, financials have caught one of the strongest bids after lagging for the first part of the week. The sector is up 1.1%. Financials are currently led by NYSE Euronext (NYX 39.22, +4.05), which received a takeover offer from Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ 27.50, +1.66) and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE 118.93, -4.61) to acquire the company for $42.50 per share in cash and stock. The offer represents a premium of 19% over that made by Deutsche Boerse.

Telecom has turned lower after outperforming for most of the week. The sector is down 0.2% to trade as the only major sector with a loss. DJ30 +85.30 NASDAQ +16.66 SP500 +10.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1511/1.01 bln/1026 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2195/385 mln/737

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 still has a few points to go before it will eclipse the 52-week high set in February. However, the Dow is now at a new bull market high. Bank of America (BAC 13.53, +0.20) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.60, +0.50) have been primary drivers of the Dow's advance today. The two financial plays had lagged during most of the past week.DJ30 +90.56 NASDAQ +18.02 SP500 +10.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1544/923 mln/995 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2222/355 mln/697

12:00 pm : Telecom stocks have drifted deeper into negative territory. They are now down 0.4%, collectivly. Telecom remains the only major sector to trade with a loss today. It has been weighed down by integrated plays.

There's a considerable gap between telecom and the next worst performing sector, which is tech. However, tech's 0.4% gain is still relatively solid. Google (GOOG 594.93, +8.17) is a primary leader in the tech space. Its gain is also one of the strongest.

For the week, though, telecom stocks are up almost 4% while tech is up only 0.4% week to date. DJ30 +95.14 NASDAQ +19.97 SP500 +11.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1556/821 mln/960 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2230/318 mln/668

11:30 am : Oil prices are back up to $107.64 per barrel, which is just $0.20 shy of the two-year high that was set earlier this morning. The run up in oil prices has helped the energy sector put together a 0.8% gain.

Cabot Oil (COG 54.34, +1.37) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD 104.20 +2.32) are top performers in the energy space. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A 73.46, +0.60) isn't necessarily a leader, but the stock is still up solidly. The company announced that it has agreed to sell most of its downstream business in Chile to Quinenco for a total consideration of $614 million. DJ30 92.18 NASDAQ 19.13 SP500 11.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1525/690 mln/933 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2202/275 mln/671

11:00 am : Tech stocks had been stuck near the neutral line in the early going, but they have since worked their way up to a 0.3% gain. However, telecom stocks have drifted into the red so that the sector now trades with a 0.1% loss. Telecom's slip comes after the sector had outperformed in recent sessions.

During telecom's climb during recent sessions financials often lacked leadership, but financial issues have garnered support today. In turn, financials are up 1.2%, which makes them today's top performers. Financials are currently led by NYSE Euronext (NYX 39.22, +4.05), which is up almost 12% following news that the company received a rival bid for $42.50 per share in cash and stock from Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ 26.53, +0.69) and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE 119.48, -4.06). The offer represents a premium of 19% over that made by Deutsche Boerse. DJ30 +84.54 NASDAQ +15.74 SP500 +9.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/550 mln/890 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2171/230 mln/655

10:30 am : Continuous crude oil futures rose to an approx. 2.5 year high in trade today, touching $107.84/barrel. It quickly sold off on no identifiable news to fresh session lows of $106.30/barrel. Currently, the May contract (most active) is at $106.98/barrel, up 0.2%.

May natural gas has pulled back since pit trading began. About 45 minutes ago, the energy component hit fresh session lows and is now 1% lower at $4.35 per MMBtu.

In overnight trade, May corn futures rose 6% to $7.3475/bushel, extending strong gains from yesterday when corn rose the exchange limit (30 cents to $6.9325/bushel).

Precious metals sold off around the time pit trade began. April gold shed approx. $20/ounce, falling to morning lows of $1413.00/ounce and is currently 1.2% lower at $1421.30/ounce. May silver sold off with gold, falling about 1.7% to current session lows of $37.08/ounce. Silver is currently down by 1.6% at $37.27/ounce.
DJ30 +85.18 NASDAQ +15.02 SP500 +9.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1416/380.9 mln/891 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2186/172.2 mln/605

10:05 am : Stocks have slipped a bit since opening with a solid gain. In particular, tech stocks have run into selling pressure. The sector is now mired near the neutral line after it had already lagged in the prior session.

Just posted, the ISM Index for March came in at 61.2. On average, economists polled by Briefing.com had expected the reading to remain unchanged from the 61.4 that was posted for the prior month.

Construction spending for February fell 1.4%, which is double the drop that had been expected by many economists.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+0.9%), Industrials (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%), Energy (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.5%), Materials (+0.4%), Health Care (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.1%), Tech (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +40.42 NASDAQ +7.10 SP500 +6.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1353/183 mln/821 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2090/105 mln/637

09:45 am : Broad-based buying has the S&P 500 at a new one-month high. The Dow is also up nicely, but it hasn't quite returned to the prior session's high. As for the Nasdaq, it is at a three-week high.

Strength among stocks has stirred renewed selling interest among Treasuries. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has moved back towards its three-week high of 3.50%. DJ30 +44.28 NASDAQ +9.23 SP500 +7.07

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.20. Stock futures point to a strong start to the second quarter. A better-than-expected monthly payrolls report has helped support the positive tone among premarket participants, as have strong gains among many of the major overseas markets. Corporate news has been less of a catalyst, although IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) and Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ) have announced a rival bid of about $11.3 billion for NYSE Euronext (NYX). Still on today's calendar are construction spending figures and the latest ISM Index -- both are due at 10:00 AM ET. Traders are also pushing oil prices higher. The energy component recently set a new two-year high of $107.84 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold and silver prices continue to come under pressure. Both are down in excess of 1%.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.80. Europe's major bourses are up with impressive gains this morning. The action makes for a strong start to the second quarter. Germany's DAX is up 1.5% on the heels of a 1.8% first quarter gain, which followed an 11% climb in the fourth quarter of 2010. France's CAC is up 0.9% today. It scored a 4.8% first quarter gain, which added to the 2.4% gain scored in the fourth quarter. BNP Paribas and Carrefour are currently top performers within France's CAC. GDF Suez has fallen out of favor; its 1.5% loss makes it the worst performing stock in the CAC. Britain's FTSE is up 1.2% in the latest round of action. It finished the first quarter just 0.2% after a 6.3% fourth quarter climb. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) has seen a muted response to news that the company will sell most of its downstream business in Chile for a total consideration of $614 million. Several manufacturing reports were posted. Germany's final PMI reading for February was unrevised at 60.9. The United Kingdom's PMI reading for March fell to 57.1 from 61.5 in February. Broader eurozone PMI for March came in at 57.5 in the final reading, down from 57.7.

China's Manufacturing PMI for March improved to 53.4 from 52.2 in February, but that wasn't quite as strong has some economists had expected. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1.3% gain after underperforming in recent sessions. Financials provided the strongest push to the advance. The strong start to the second quarter adds to the Composite's 4.3% first quarter gain, which follows a 5.7% gain in the fourth quarter. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.2% to extend its 2.1% first quarter gain. The Hang Seng had scored a 3.0% gain in the fourth quarter. Japan's Nikkei failed to follow the other major Asian averages. Instead, it fell to a 0.5% loss. The slide extended Nikkei's 4.6% first quarter drop, which ate into the 9.2% gain that it had scored in the fourth quarter.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00. Stock futures have added modestly to their morning gains with help from the latest jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls for March increased by 216,000, which is greater than the 185,000 additions that had been expected, on averages, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Private payrolls came in at 230,000, which exceeds the 203,000 that had been broadly anticipated. The headline unemployment rate eased down to 8.8% from 8.9%, which is where many economists had been expected it to remain. Despite the stronger-than-expected increases to monthly payrolls, hourly earnings were unchanged in March. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had been pegged at a 0.2% increase.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.80. Trade was restrained in the prior session, but participants are back with a bid ahead of the official nonfarm payrolls report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. The latest ISM Index and construction spending figures are also on the agenda -- both are due 10:00 AM ET. Part of this morning's positive tone is owed to strong gains among Europe's major bourses after China and Hong Kong rallied overnight (Japan retreated to a 0.5% loss). Gains in Asia came China's latest Manufacturing PMI, which improved to 53.4 from 52.2 in the prior month. Manufacturing PMI figures out of Europe produced little surprise. Corporate news has been light this morning. However, after a few weeks of speculation, Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ) and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) have proposed to acquire NYSE Euronext (NYX) with cash and stock for $42.50 per share, which represents a 19% premium to the takeover proposal already offered by Deutsche Boerse. Outside of equities, crude oil prices have continued to climb. The continuous contract set a new two-year high earlier this morning at $107.65 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold and silver prices are under pressure as the dollar ticks higher.

07:51 am : Nikkei...9708.39...-46.70...-0.50%. Hang Seng...23801.90...+274.40...+1.20%.

07:51 am : FTSE...5965.53...+56.80...+1.00%. DAX...7122.79...+81.50...+1.20%.

07:50 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.20.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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