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 Post subject: March 25th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +7.80
PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2011 7:21 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
The Emini TF futures volatility was contracted today and very low overall. Simply, very few trade opportunities and that's been the theme all week as the Emini futures and Eurex futures have contracted dramatically in their volatility. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +7.80 points or $780.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=794.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=965

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Post Third Straight Day Of Gains
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
March 25, 2011: 4:41 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose for a third straight day Friday, as investors shrugged off geopolitical concerns and focused on positive news out of the technology sector.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 50 points, or 0.4%, to 12,221. The S&P 500 (SPX) index climbed 4.1 points, or 0.3%, to 1,313.80; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 6.6 points, or 0.2%, to 2,743.

For the week, the Dow rose more than 3% while the S&P 500 gained 2.7% and the Nasdaq surged 3.7%. It was the best weekly performance for the Dow since mid-July.

Tech stocks were among the biggest movers. Shares of Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) gained 1.5%, after the software company reported results late Thursday that were mostly in line with expectations. Dow component IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) closed up 1.5%. IBM, like Oracle, is a big seller of software to businesses.

The earnings news helped offset what was generally an uneventful day for the market.

"No news is good news these days," said Daniel Morgan, portfolio manager with Synovus Trust Company.

Though unrest in the Middle East and Libya is spreading and Japan continues to deal with the effects of an earthquake, U.S. stocks still performed extremely well this week.

"The market looked for an excuse for a correction, and got one in the Libya unrest and Japanese earthquake. But I suspect now we'll continue to trend higher," said Harry Clark with Clark Capital Management.
0:00 /01:16RIM in downward motion

Mostly positive earnings news from the technology sector boosted U.S. stocks on Thursday as well.

Economy: Investors reacted little to the third and final reading of fourth-quarter U.S. GDP, which showed an annual growth rate of 3.1%, up from a prior estimate of 2.8%.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for March came in at a reading of 68.2, in line with economists' expectations.

Companies: Research in Motion (RIMM) shares plunged more than 11% after the BlackBerry maker gave weak guidance late Thursday.

Electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) was among the worst performers in the S&P 500, falling 3% after Wall Street analysts downgraded the company following its earnings report earlier this week.

Shares of Darden Restaurants (DRI, Fortune 500), operator of Red Lobster and Olive Garden, dropped 5% despite the fact that the company's earnings beat analyst estimates. Darden hinted that rising food costs could be a problem down the road.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked up by 0.3%, the DAX in Germany gained 0.2% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.1%.

Asian markets ended the session higher. The Shanghai Composite, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong and Japan's Nikkei all gained about 1.1%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for May delivery fell 8 cents at $105.52 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery dropped by $8.70, or 0.6%, to $1,426.20 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.40% from 3.39% late Thursday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks surrendered some of their gains, but the broad market still settled in higher ground for the sixth time in seven sessions.

Another round of broad-based buying took stocks to their highest level in a dozen days. The ascent has come in the face of political and social instability in the Middle East and North Africa, not to mention Japan's radiation risk two weeks after massive earthquakes damaged nuclear facilities.

As a group, energy stocks staged some of the strongest gains today. The sector's 0.9% gain was led by the likes of Newfield Exploration (NFX 75.68, +2.91) and Valero Energy (VLO 29.93, +1.14). Schlumberger (SLB 86.89, -1.21) was one of only a few names in the sector that failed to put together a gain.

Tech had initially displayed leadership following an upside earnings surprise and strong forecast from Oracle (ORCL 32.64, +0.50), but a loss of support in afternoon trade left the sector to finish with a gain of less than 0.2%. That caused the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite to drift to a rather lackluster finish after it been up about 1% at its session high. Research In Motion (RIMM 56.89, -7.20) was a primary source of weakness; its dramatic drop stemmed from disappointment over the firm's forecast and a subsequent downgrade by analysts at Deutsche Bank.

The only data of consequence today was the third estimate for fourth quarter GDP, which was revised upward to reflect growth of 3.1%. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for a 2.9% increase.

That news came before Philadelphia Fed President Plosser acknowledged that an improving economy needs for a strategy to normalize monetary policy. Plosser expressed favor for a strategy that involves raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet concurrently and tying the pace of asset sales to the pace and size of interest rate increases. Although economists continue to believe that any such move is unlikely in the near term, the statement was a more direct indication that the Fed is thinking about the day when it will need to act.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.9%), Telecom (+0.8%), Materials (+0.5%), Industrials (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.3), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%), Tech (+0.2%), Financial (+0.2%)
Unchanged: Utilities, Consumer Staples
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +50.03 NASDAQ +6.64 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +0.8% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +4.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1512/1.86 bln/1092 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1969/823 mln/1015

3:30 pm : A late run up made natural gas one of today's top performing commodities. The energy component settled pit trade with a 3.6% gain at almost $4.40 per MMBtu.

Oil had a relatively quiet session. Prices settled just 0.2% lower at $105.39 per barrel.

As for precious metals, gold prices closed with a 0.6% loss at $1426.30 per ounce and silver settled at $37.18 per ounce with a 0.5% loss. Both encountered selling pressure after Philadelphia Fed President Plosser stated his proposal for normalizing monetary policy. DJ30 +56.42 NASDAQ +8.90 SP500 +5.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1745/1.48 bln/838 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2128/552 mln/816

3:00 pm : Support had started to fade in recent trade, but stocks have since stabilized. In turn, the major equity averages continue to sit on solid gains.

Only an hour remains before trade will close for this week. Next week's calendar brings the latest earnings from Lennar (LEN 20.05, +0.18), Family Dollar (FDO 52.00, +0.05), and Mosaic (MOS 79.05, +1.50). Economic items include personal income and spending, consumer confidence, the latest ADP Employment Change, weekly initial jobless claims, monthly nonfarm payrolls, ISM data, and construction spending numbers. DJ30 +63.23 NASDAQ +13.15 SP500 +6.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1666/1.38 bln/907 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2093/512 mln/864

2:30 pm : Selling interest has started to surface. The change in tone has caused the Nasdaq to surrender about half of its gain.

The Nasdaq's pullback stems from a downturn among tech stocks, which are now up just 0.2% for the session. Even Oracle (ORCL 32.78, +0.64) has drifted to a session low after it had displayed early leadership and had traded near $34 per share. Initial strength in the stock was underpinned by better-than-expected earnings and a strong forecast. DJ30 +57.75 NASDAQ +11.07 SP500 +5.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1773/1.26 bln/792 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2146/469 mln/774

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to sport solid gains, but they are back near afternoon lows. There really hasn't been any sign of selling pressure, rather buying interest has waned a bit.

However, Treasuries have encountered increased selling pressure in recent trade. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is now down 10 ticks, which has lifted its yield to a two-week high of 3.45%. DJ30 +64.33 NASDAQ +17.18 SP500 +6.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1805/1.17 bln/734 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2198/430 mln/725

1:30 pm : Discretionary plays casinos and gaming stocks are benefiting from some strong buying interest today. In addition to broad market support, their advance stems partly from the decision by analysts at UBS to upgrade Las Vegas Sands (LVS 42.61, +0.65), which is a new two-week high. Wynn Resorts (WYNN 127.97, +3.73) has made an especially strong bounce in the wake of the LVS upgrade, but it is still several dollars shy of its 52-week high.DJ30 +66.87 NASDAQ +20.65 SP500 +7.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1779/1.09 bln/749 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2138/400 mln/783

1:05 pm : The stock market is on pace for its sixth gain in seven sessions as participants continue to move back into stocks. Buying has even held steady in the face of hawkish comments from a regional Fed president.

Stocks have staged impressive gains in recent sessions as market participants look past military conflict in Libya and social unrest in the rest of the region, as well as challenges in nuclear facility restoration and radiation containment in Japan. The stock market's ability to shrug off such ominous news stories has encouraged participants to chase the tape.

Broad-based buying in recent sessions has the stock market at a two-week high. The latest leg of gains has also been broad-based, but materials stocks are seeing some of the strongest interest. The sector is up 1%, even after commodities were clipped amid comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser about monetary policy normalization. Plosser said he proposes a strategy that involves raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet concurrently and tying the pace of asset sales to the pace and size of interest rate increases.

Plosser's comments come after the third estimate for fourth quarter GDP was revised upward to reflect growth of 3.1%.

The latest dose of corporate news consists of an upside earnings surprise from both Oracle (ORCL 33.16, +1.02) and Accenture (ACN 54.34, +2.38). However, Research In Motion (RIMM 56.88, -7.21) was downgraded by Deutsche Bank in the wake of a mixed forecast, which has overshadowed better-than-expected earnings. That has the stock at a four-month low. DJ30 +65.62 NASDAQ +20.45 SP500 +7.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1817/1.00 bln/675 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2174/369 mln/735

12:30 pm : Comments from Philadelphia Fed President Plosser about a strategy for the normalization of monetary policy have been hitting newswires. Plosser stated that recent global events may have created some uncertainties, but strengthening of the U.S. economy suggests that it is prudent for policymakers to develop a strategy to normalize monetary policy. Plosser proposes a strategy that involves raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet concurrently and tying the pace of asset sales to the pace and size of interest rate increases.

Plosser's comments have induced selling among commodities. That has clipped the materials sector, which is still up nicely with a 1.0% gain, though. The broader market hasn't made much of a reaction to the statement. DJ30 +72.00 NASDAQ +21.65 SP500 +7.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1865/912 mln/625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2249/330 mln/644

12:00 pm : Financials had traded with a slight loss in the early going, but the sector has since worked its way to a 0.6% gain. The move has been led by bank stocks like Wells Fargo (WFC 32.14, +0.60), U.S. Bancorp (USB 27.00, +0.32), BB&T (BBT 27.23, +0.56), and Fifth Third (FITB 13.99, +0.21). However, Bank of America (BAC 13.48, +0.00) remains mired near the neutral line and investment banks like Goldman Sachs (GS 158.10, -1.81) and Morgan Stanley (MS 27.25, -0.36) are down markedly.DJ30 +72.58 NASDAQ +24.64 SP500 +8.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1844/800 mln/626 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2222/288 mln/659

11:30 am : The Nasdaq Composite is outperforming its counterparts for the second straight session, thanks to strength among large-cap tech issues like Oracle (ORCL 33.36, +1.22). The enterprise software outfit complemented an upside earnings surprise with strong guidance.

Research In Motion (RIMM 57.23, -6.86) was a leader in the Nasdaq during the prior session, but today the stock has been dogged. Its dramatic drop to a four-month low comes in the wake of a mixed earnings forecast, which has overshadowed better-than-expected earnings for the most recent quarter. In the wake of the report, shares of RIMM have been downgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank. DJ30 +72.62 NASDAQ +22.93 SP500 +7.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1825/680 mln/606 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2176/245 mln/664

11:00 am : Stocks sputtered along in the first few minutes of trade, but they have since rallied to strong gains. Once again, the bid has been broad based.

Natural resource plays have garnered some of the strongest interest. As such, materials stocks are up 1.3% while energy stocks are up 0.9%. Energy's advance comes after the sector had actually slipped to a slight loss in the first few minutes of trade. It also flies in the face of a modest dip in oil prices to $105.25 per barrel. DJ30 +72.69 NASDAQ +24.57 SP500 +8.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1659/510 mln/713 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2026/185 mln/778

10:30 am : The dollar index has been in positive territory all morning and extended gains in recent activity, which has pressured select commodities. However, most commodities remain higher in morning trade.

May crude oil began to sell off about two hours ago, falling into negative territory and to new session lows of $104.50 per barrel. It has since erased most of those losses and is now trading at $105.24 per barrel, down 0.3%.

April natural gas is trading just above the unchanged line currently, now at $4.26 per MMBtu.

Precious metals have been choppy this morning. April gold continues to trade between $1430.50 to $1438.00 per ounce in today's session and is now just above the unchanged line at $1436.60 per ounce, May silver is up 0.5% at $37.575 per ounce.

Overnight, grains posted decent gains with corn futures leading. May corn rose 1.5% to $7.1275/bu, May wheat rose 9 cents (or +1.2%) to $7.485/bu and May soybeans gained 7.25 cents (or $0.5%) to $13.6175/bu.DJ30 +45.52 NASDAQ +9.48 SP500 +3.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1367/332.7 mln/928 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1723/129.4 mln/969

10:00 am : The stock market continues to trade just north of the neutral line. Stocks have been unfazed by the final March Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan. The Survey came in at 67.5, down from the preliminary reading of 68.2.

Earlier this week analysts at Moody's downgraded about 30 banks in Spain. Moody's is now out with downgrades on multiple covered bonds from Spain.

In a similar vein, analysts at Standard & Poor's downgraded Portugal's rating to BBB following the inability of the country's Parliament to pass austerity measures. The country's rating remains on CreditWatch Negative.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+0.8%), Tech (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.4%), Energy (+0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%), Industrials (+0.1%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%), Health Care (+0.1)
Declining Sectors: Financial (-0.1%), Utilities (-0.1%)DJ30 +31.79 NASDAQ +8.87 SP500 +9.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1298/185 mln/882 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1531/78 mln/1079

09:45 am : Each of the three major equity averages is up with a narrow gain in the early going, but financials continue to trail. This is the third straight session that the financial sector has lagged the broader market.

Although the financial sector is down a relatively tame 0.2% this morning, the sector continues to lack buying interest. Bank of America (BAC 13.43, -0.05) continues to be a burden in the wake of the Fed's decision earlier this week to deny the bank's proposal to distribute capital in the second half of 2011. Meanwhile, British banking play Barclays (BCS 18.67, -0.33) has been aggressively backed down following reports that the outfit is the target of a Libor probe. DJ30 +23.73 NASDAQ +5.80 SP500 +1.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1493/58 mln/645 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1844/40 mln/632

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. Stock futures have given back some of their gains, but they continue to point to a positive start for the final session of the week. Stocks have already advanced in five of the past six sessions and are on pace for a weekly gain of more than 2%. The stock market's recent climb has come largely by its own volition, considering that military engagements in Libya remain escalated and Japan continues to face radiation risk and challenges related to the restoration of damaged nuclear facilities. Recent data hasn't been very inspiring either, although this morning it was reported that the third estimate for fourth quarter U.S. GDP was revised higher to reflect growth of 3.1%. Corporate news has been of less concern to many broad market participants in recent weeks, but it continues to drive action around individual names. For instance, shares of Oracle (ORCL) are up almost 5% following the company's upside earnings surprise and strong forecast. Accenture (ACN) is up almost 8% after it announced similar accomplishments, whereas Research In Motion (RIMM) was last quoted with an 11% loss as mixed guidance overshadows better-than-expected earnings.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30. Europe's major bourses are all near the neutral line. Data there has been a bit mixed. Specifically, Germany's IFO Business Climate reading for March came in at 111.1, which is hardly changed from the 111.2 that was posted in the previous month. the IFO Expectations reading slipped to 106.5 from 107.9. France's fourth quarter GDP was revised upward to reflect a 0.4% increase, but its consumer confidence reading for March slipped to 83 from 85. Overnight action in Asia was helped by Wall Street's ability to advance yesterday in the face of numerous negative headlines. Japan's Nikkei pushed to a 1.1% gain. Concerns about radiation and restoration of damaged nuclear facilities linger, though. The country's CPI was flat in February. Core CPI actually fell 0.6%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also advanced 1.1% while mainland China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80. The third esitmate for fourth quarter GDP was revised upward to reflect a 3.1% increase, which is greater than the 2.9% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The news hasn't done anything to spur additional buying interest this morning. In turn, stock futures remain off of morning highs. Still on today's calendar is the final monthly consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.10. Stock futures point to a positive start to today's trade. That would add to the stock market's weekly gain, which already exceeds 2%. Large-cap tech is a source of early support following an upside earnings surprise and forecast from Oracle (ORCL), which is up more than 4% ahead of the open. However, Research In Motion (RIMM) shares have dropped about 12% in premarket trade. The company's latest quarterly announcement featured better-than-expected earnings on light revenue and a mixed forecast. The stock had seen strong buying ahead of its report. Accenture (ACN) also saw strong buying ahead of its announcement, but news of a bottom line beat and strong forecast have hiked its shares another 5% this morning. Today's economic calendar features the third GDP reading for the fourth quarter (8:30 AM ET) and the final monthly reading on conumer sentiment from the University of Michigan (9:55 AM ET).

06:34 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.10.

06:34 am : Nikkei...9536.13...+101.10...+1.10%. Hang Seng...23158.67...+243.40...+1.10%.

06:34 am : FTSE...5914.31...+33.40...+0.60%. DAX...6979.69...+46.20...+0.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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