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 Post subject: March 23rd Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +8.10
PostPosted: Sat Mar 26, 2011 6:54 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
I missed a few trade opportunities today due to personal reasons but I did manage to catch a price movement that reached a WRB pt1 level exit. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +8.10 points or $810.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=791.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=965

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Finish Higher Thanks To Afternoon Boost
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporter
March 23, 2011: 4:30 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks finished higher Wednesday, thanks to a late-day advance, as investors shrugged off jitters about turmoil in the Middle East and Japan's nuclear issues.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) closed 67 points higher, or 0.6%, led by a 3% jump in shares of Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500). Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) was the worst performer on the blue-chip index. The bank said it will need to revise its dividend plan after the Fed rejected the bank's initial proposal.

The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 4 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added 14 points, or 0.5%.

Traders spent most of Wednesday and the previous session on the sidelines, unwilling to place any big bets as global concerns linger.

"Investors are waiting to see if things will get worse or smooth out," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

But with a lack of any significant developments, investors began to tiptoe their way back into the market late Wednesday afternoon.

"We've been watching for more news out of Japan and the Middle East, but there's not much new information, so that's improving some confidence," said Paul Radeke, vice president at KDV Wealth Management. "There's a lot of pent-up demand, and a lack of further bad news will lift the market."

* Jobless benefits may be cut

Prior to the afternoon upturn, investors had been taking a wait-and-see approach, and volume has remained light.

A disappointing housing report didn't help matters much, but after a brief blip, investors largely shrugged off the data, which showed new home sales tumbled to a record low last month.

World markets: The Egyptian market plunged Wednesday. The stock market in Egypt had been closed since Jan. 27, and most traders had already anticipated the sharp drop.

Other world markets were stronger. Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite added 1%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong edged down 0.1%.

* Earthquake could cost $309 billion

Japan's Nikkei closed 1.7% lower, but it was the smallest percentage change in the index since the massive earthquake and devastating tsunami.

On Wednesday, the Japanese government said the quake would cost the nation $300 billion -- more than double the cost of the Kobe quake in 1995, according to published reports.

European stocks ended higher. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.6%, the DAX in Germany rose 0.4% and France's CAC 40 increased 0.5%.

Companies: Shares of General Mills (GIS, Fortune 500) dropped 1.8%. The cereal maker, which raised prices in October, said its fiscal third-quarter earnings rose 18%, though U.S. sales were slightly lower.

Adobe Systems (ADBE) was the biggest decliner on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Shares sank 3.7% after the software maker lowered its second-quarter earnings forecast, saying the earthquake and tsunami in Japan will curb sales.
0:00 /01:02General Mills under pressure

Shares of homebuilder PulteGroup (PHM) rose 3.6% after Goldman Sachs raised its price target on the stock.

Jabil Circuit's (JBL, Fortune 500) stock jumped almost 11%, leading the gainers in the S&P 500. The electronics manufacturing company posted a profit and sales figures above expectations late Tuesday.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro and British pound, but fell versus the Japanese yen.

Meanwhile, commodity prices gained across the board.

Oil for May delivery, which became the front-month contract Wednesday, settled up 78 cents, or 0.7%, to $105.75 a barrel as fighting in Libya continued. Natural gas prices also rose, climbing almost 2% to $4.34 per thousand cubic feet.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $10.40, or 0.7%, to settle at a fresh record high of $1,438 an ounce as unrest in the Middle East and concern about Europe's debt crisis spurred demand for an alternative investment, said Sameer Samana of Wells Fargo Advisors.

The price of silver rose to its highest level in over 30 years, topping $37 an ounce. Platinum, palladium and copper prices also advanced.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was slightly lower, pushing the yield up to 3.35% from 3.33% late Tuesday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:20 pm : Stocks slipped to modest losses in the early going, but the gradual accumulation of buying interest helped stocks work their way to strong gains. Although the S&P 500 still couldn't push past the 1300 line, the advance offset losses dealt during the prior session.

Morning participants opted to put pressure on stocks. Early efforts were generally broad based, but financials were hit the hardest after the Fed refused a proposal by Bank of America (BAC 13.65, -0.23) to distribute capital to shareholders in the second half of 2011. That headline completely overshadowed an upside earnings surprise and dividend hike from Discover Financial (DFS 23.44, +1.19).

Financials were down more than 1% at their morning low, but slashed that in afternoon trade. The sector settled with a relatively tame loss of 0.3% as materials stocks helped lead buyers back into the market.

Materials stocks were only down slightly in early trade, but swung to a 1.4% gain with help from metals and mining issues, namely Freeport McMoRan (FCX 54.94, +2.66) and Newmont Mining (NEM 54.83, +1.66). DuPont (DD 53.46, -0.21) was one of the few materials sector members that failed to move higher.

Despite the sector's overall strength, it lacks the weight necessary to take the S&P 500 above the 1300 line, which has represented a formidable point of resistance for the past couple of sessions. The S&P 500 had hugged the 1300 line during the last hour of trade, but pulled back a couple of points in the final few minutes. The late slip coincided with headlines that indicated Portugal's Parliament rejected government austerity measures.

In terms of individual performances, Jabil Circuit (JBL 20.99, +2.06) was one of today's top performers. The stock posted its strongest percentage gain in months on high share volume following an upside earnings surprise and upside guidance.

Cree (CREE 42.90, -6.10) was pummeled after the company cut its forecast. A disappointing outlook from Adobe Systems (ADBE 31.68, -1.20) brought about a strong push against its shares.

Economic data was limited to new home sales figures for February. They fell 17% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 250,000, which is a record low and considerably less than Briefing.com consensus for 288,000. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 18.01, +0.12) managed to shake off the news and stage a strong gain.

Tomorrow's economic calendar features weekly jobless claims and the latest durable goods orders data. Tomorrow also brings the latest weekly natural gas inventory report and results from an auction of 10-year TIPS.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+1.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%), Tech (+0.6%), Industrials (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Telecom (+0.2%), Energy (+0.2%)
Unchanged: Utilities
Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.1%), Financials (-0.3%) DJ30 +67.39 NASDAQ +14.43 NQ100 +0.6% R2K +0.3% SP400 -0.1% SP500 +3.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1386/1.76 bln/1216 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1624/868 mln/1334

3:30 pm : Commodities ended mixed on the session, with precious metals (+1.7%), energy (+0.6%), and industrials (+0.1%) all posting gains, while grains (-1%), softs (-0.9%) and livestock (-0.7%)all posted losses.

May crude oil rallied for 0.7% to close at $105.75 per barrel. Today's closing price marks crude oil's best in ~2.5 yrs. Continued uncertainty about how the situation in Libya will play out, coupled with heightened tensions in other parts of the country -including in Gaza, supported prices in crude. April natural gas rallied for 1.9% to end at $4.41 per MMBtu.

Global unrest, including recent attacks in Israel, sent the precious metals higher in a flight to safety. April gold rallied for 0.7% to finish at $1438.00 per ounce, while May silver surged 2.5% to end at $37.19 per ounce. Silver traded to a fresh ~30 yr high at $37.29, while gold put in highs at $1441.20, about 4 points shy of its all time. DJ30 +91.35 NASDAQ +19.79 SP500 +6.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1392/1.4 bln/1160 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1676/594.6 mln/1276

3:00 pm : Stocks have pushed to fresh session highs as they enter the final hour of today's trade. Despite the effort, financials and health care stocks remain mired in the red -- both sectors are down 0.3%.

With just 60 minutes left before the toll of the closing bell, the focus starts to turn to tomorrow's agenda. The economic calendar features weekly jobless claims and the latest durable goods orders data. Tomorrow also brings the latest weekly natural gas inventory report. Results from an auction of 10-year TIPS are also scheduled for release on Thursday. DJ30 +79.80 NASDAQ +16.60 SP500 +4.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1288/1.25 bln/1253 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1521/540 mln/1412

2:30 pm : Shares of Starbucks (SBUX 36.45, +1.50) are up sharply after analysts at Deutsche Bank resumed their Buy rating on the stock. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR 63.06, +1.09), which announced a strategic alliance with Starbucks a couple of weeks ago, has also caught a bid this session. Although the gain isn't quite as strong as that of SBUX, shares of GMCR are at a new record high.DJ30 +43.21 NASDAQ +5.26 SP500 +0.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1230/1.14 bln/1289 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1489/498 mln/1414

2:00 pm : After taking a breather just below the neutral line, the stock market has regained its upward momentum so that it is now at a fresh session high in positive territory with a modest gain.

The stock market's upturn comes amid relatively broad-based buying, such that eight of the 10 major sectors are now in higher ground after all of them had been in the red earlier this morning. Only financials (-0.4) and health care (-0.2%) are still in negative territory.

Treasuries haven't made much of a reaction to the stock market's upward push. Rather, the benchmark 10-year Note continues to trade just a couple of ticks in the red. DJ30 +54.03 NASDAQ +6.74 SP500 +1.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1175/1.06 bln/1337 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1436/455 mln/1449

1:30 pm : Stocks have been unable to add to their recent advance. That has left the S&P 500 mired in the red with a very narrow loss. The benchmark index also had a hard time turning positive in the prior session and was ultimately backed down for a modest loss.

In recent news, headlines have suggested that Cameron (CAM 58.57, -1.43) has been identified in a government commissioned report on the Gulf oil spill for its role in manufacturing the blowout preventer while Transocean (RIG 79.77, -0.51) was responsible for maintaining it. The report's circulation caused shares of CAM to fall to fresh session lows, but they have started to recover. DJ30 +31.22 NASDAQ +1.93 SP500 -0.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1045/970 mln/1440 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1289/419 mln/1591

1:00 pm : Stocks are now mixed after overcoming some moderate selling pressure this morning.

Participants renewed their selling efforts in the early going, although none of the major averages was backed down very far. The Dow actually did a good job of limiting its move lower, but the broader market was weighed down by weakness in financial stocks. Financial stocks have since pared their losses, but the sector is still down 0.8% amid news that Bank of America (BAC 13.53, -0.35) had its proposal to distribute capital to shareholders in the second half of 2011 refused by the Fed. Meanwhile, Discover Financial (DFS 23.26, +1.01) will hike its dividend. The banking and payment services company also posted an upside earnings surprise.

Jabil Circuit (JBL 21.03, +2.10) posted an upside earnings surprise of its own and also issued upside guidance. That has the stock on pace for its best single-session performance since December.

In contrast, disappointing guidance from Adobe Systems (ADBE 31.09, -1.79) has dropped shares of the software maker sharply so that they trade near 2011 lows. Cree (CREE 43.33, -5.67) has also been cut down following a trimmed forecast. Materials stocks have attracted a strong bid.

Strength in metals and mining plays and agricultural chemical issues has pushed the sector up 0.8%. The sector's lack of market weighed has limited its influence over broader action, however.

The worst new home sales report on record didn't do much for traders this morning. New home sales for February fell to an annualized rate of 250,000 from the prior month's upwardly revised rate of 301,000. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com was pegged at 288,000.DJ30 +23.61 NASDAQ +1.08 SP500 -1.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1076/902 mln/1412 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1311/388 mln/1553

12:30 pm : A recent bout of buying has sent both the Dow and the Nasdaq Composite into higher ground. The S&P 500 has yet to poke into positive territory, though.

Although they don't weigh very much in terms of market cap, materials stocks have been leaders in the market's upturn. The sector now sports a 0.8% gain, thanks mostly to strength among metals and miners as well as agricultural chemical plays.

Financials continue to trail, however. The sector is still down 0.7%. That's more than double the loss of health care (-0.3%), which is the next worst performing sector. DJ30 +26.45 NASDAQ +4.70 SP500 -0.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 941/800 mln/1534 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1057/345 mln/1789

12:00 pm : Disappointment over the downside forecast from Adobe Systems (ADBE 31.09, -1.79) has overshadowed the software maker's upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter. As a consequence of the market's forward looking nature, shares of ADBE have dropped sharply so that they are in close contact with their 2011 lows. Underlying share volume has been robust; in fact, just a few hours into the session trading volume in the stock is at its highest level in several months.

Meanwhile, an upside earnings surprise and an upside forecast from Jabil Circuit (JBL 20.96, +2.03) has the stock on pace for its best single-session percentage gain in three months. Trading volume in JBL is strong, but unlikely to set any kind of record. DJ30 -4.20 NASDAQ -5.27 SP500 -4.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 925/722 mln/1521 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1092/305 mln/1749

11:30 am : Stocks have successfully trimmed their losses. The effort has taken the Dow to within close reach of the neutral line, but both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite continue to trail with larger losses.

Treasuries have caught a bid in recent trade, too. Buying in that space has sent the yield in the benchmark 10-year Note a few basis points back above 3.30%.

The dollar is up modestly after its slip yesterday to a new 52-week low against a basket of major foreign currencies. Today it is up about 0.1% against the yen and up about 0.4% against the euro. DJ30 -2.69 NASDAQ -7.44 SP500 -4.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 694/598 mln/1698 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 854/265 mln/1940

11:00 am : Financials, now down 1.2%, continue to trade with the worst loss of any major sector. Bank stocks have been the biggest burden for the financial sector; the KBW Bank Index is currently down 1.4%.

Materials stocks are down only 0.1%. Newmont Mining (NEM 54.45, +1.28) is a leader in that space for the second straight session. Today's run-up in gold and silver prices has helped rekindle support for the mining play, which now sits at a new two-week high. DJ30 -32.21 NASDAQ -18.66 SP500 -7.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 586/472 mln/1767 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 756/212 mln/2005

10:35 am : Oil inventories for the week ended March 18 had a build of 2.13 million barrels, which is greater than the consensus call for a build of 1.5 million barrels. Oil prices haven't shown much reaction to the report. In turn, they continue to trade with a solid 0.5% gain at $105.50 per barrel. Prices had slipped below $105 per barrel to trade with a slight loss shortly after pit trade's open.

Natural gas is having a rather unexciting session. Futures contract prices are currently up by a single penny to $4.26 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are putting together an impressive performance. More specifically, the price of gold is up 0.8% to $1439 per ounce while silver prices are up 1.5% to $36.80 per ounce. DJ30 -21.46 NASDAQ -15.21 SP500 -6.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 593/363 mln/1699 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 719/166 mln/1988

10:05 am : New home sales for February fell to an annualized rate of 250,000 from the prior month's upwardly revised rate of 301,000. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com was pegged at 288,000.

The lower-than-expected tally is close to a record low and has caused stocks to pull back from a recent upturn. The broad market now sits at its morning low.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-1.1%), Utilities (-0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%), Telecom (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.6%), Industrials (-0.5%), Energy (-0.5%), Materials (-0.5%), Tech (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%)DJ30 -31.60 NASDAQ -15.95 SP500 -8.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 576/185 mln/1586 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 725/98 mln/1889

09:45 am : Selling at the open has taken the S&P 500 down markedly, but the Dow has managed to limit its decline so that it trades with only a moderate loss. Alcoa (AA 16.60, +0.15) is currently a leader among blue chips.

Fellow Dow component Bank of America (BAC 13.69, -0.19) has been hit rather hard following news that Fed refused the bank's proposal to distribute capital to shareholders in the second half of 2011. Weakness in the heavyweight has imbued the rest of the financial sector so that it trades with a 1.0% loss. DJ30 -22.71 NASDAQ -16.37 SP500 -6.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 682/36 mln/1231 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 760/33 mln/1424

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.20. Stock futures point to a narrow loss at the open. That would be consistent with the lackluster action displayed in the prior session. The pause among buyers comes after stocks had strung together a series of strong performances, which actually gave the Dow its best three-session gain since September. Catalysts necessary to drive follow through buying interest have been limited, although a few individual names have seen some swings following earnings announcements. Among those that have reported most recently, Adobe (ADBE) is down ahead of the open, but Jabil Circuit (JBL) is up sharply in premarket trade. Cree (CREE) cut its guidance, so its shares have fallen under pressure. Discover Financial (DFS) has benefited from an upside earnings surprise and its decision to hike its dividend. Shares of Bank of America (BAC) are expected to open lower after the bank's proposal to distribute capital in the second half of 2011 was denied by the Fed.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. Commodities are generally stronger this morning. Oil prices had pushed back above $105 per barrel ahead of pit trade, but the commodity has since pulled back to trade with a fractional loss at $104.93 per barrel. Weekly oil inventory data are due at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are up 0.7% to $4.28 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices are up 0.3% to $1431.80 per ounce while silver is up a more impressive 0.6% to $36.49 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50. Futures for the S&P 500 have turned lower in recent trade. Meanwhile, Europe's major bourses are mixed at the moment. Both France's CAC and Britain's FTSE are up fractionally, but Germany's DAX is down 0.4%. In the backdrop is a vote by Portugal's parliament on an amended austerity package. Among the more widely followed names in Europe, BP Plc (BP) has agreed to sell its America Production Company's 93% interest in the Wattenberg Processing Plant to Anadarko Petroleum (APC) for about $575 million. Also, Unilever Plc (UL) will sell its Sanex personal care brand to Colgate-Palmolive (CL) for about $940 million. Financial plays in France have been weak. As such, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole are both down about 2%. In economic related news, the minutes from the latest Bank of England Meeting indicate that the members voted 6-to-3 in favor of holding rates steady. The vote to keep intact the country's quantitative easing plan was 8-to-1.

Japan's Nikkei fell 1.7% overnight. Reports attribute the retreat to rekindled concerns about the country's progress in restoring damaged nuclear facilities. Estimates from the country peg the cost of damage from recent earthquakes at 25 trillion yen. During the latest round of trade Fujitsu was the worst performer; it tumbled almost 7%. Tokyo Electric Power dove more than 4% after it had rallied in each of the past two sessions. Canon (CAJ) was a strong performer, though; it gained 2.3%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed just 0.1%. China Coal proved to be a heavy drag as it tumbled close to 8% in the wake of its latest quarterly report. China's Shanghai Composite bucked the negative trend to climb 1.0%. Despite disappointment over the latest report from China Coal, coal miners were helped by news of an emergency coal stockpiling plan out of Beijing. As such, Yanzhou Mining and China Shenhua Energy outperformed.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. Stocks posted narrow losses in the prior session and are back under a mild fit of selling pressure amid generally lackluster action among the major averages abroad. Bank of America (BAC) shares are under sharper pressure after it was disclosed that the Fed objected to the company's proposed increase in capital distributions during the second half of 2011. Premarket trade has taken Adobe (ADBE) shares down about 2% in the wake of the company's downside forecast, which has overshadowed a better-than-expected bottom line. In contrast, Jabil Circuit (JBL) shares have spiked more than 8% higher ahead of the open. The action comes on the heels of the company's latest quarterly report, which features an upside earnings surprise and upside guidance. Discover Financial Services (DFS) posted its own upside earnings surprise along with a dividend hike to $0.06 per share. Earnings from General Mills (GIS) were in line with expectations. The latest new home sales figures are due at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly oil inventory data are due at 10:30 AM ET. Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to give the Independent Community Bankers of America at 12:00 PM ET.

06:39 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.50.

06:39 am : Nikkei...9449.47...-158.90...-1.70%. Hang Seng...22825.40...-32.50...-0.10%.

06:39 am : FTSE...5791.90...+28.20...+0.50%. DAX...6796.27...+15.30...+0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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