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 Post subject: March 18th Friday 2011 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +4.00
PostPosted: Tue Mar 22, 2011 8:19 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
I didn't like the price action of the Emini TF along with being frustrated with the continued data problems involving the Russell 2000 data. Thus, I changed trading instruments for today via trading the Emini ES futures. Hopefully I'll have access to the Emini TF futures charts by Monday of next week. With that said, only took one trade today and then called it quits for the remainder of the trading day. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +4.00 points or $200.00 dollars in the S&P 500 Emini ES ($ES_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=784.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=965

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Fall For Week As Japan Weighs On Markets
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
March 18, 2011: 4:46 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose for a second day in a row on Friday, as news of a cease-fire in Libya eased traders' concerns about developments in the Middle East. However, the ongoing turmoil in Japan led U.S. stocks to fall for the week.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) climbed 84 points, or 0.7%, to 11,859; the S&P 500 (SPX) added 5.5 points, or 0.4%, to 1,279; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 7.6 points, or 0.3%, to 2,644.

For the week, the Dow fell 1.5%, the S&P 500 lost 1.9% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.7%. While the Dow and S&P 500 remain modestly higher for the year, this week's declines have now put the Nasdaq down 0.4% year-to-date.

Stocks were higher throughout Friday's trading session as investors welcomed two pieces of encouraging news: Libya's cease-fire and the G7's Japanese yen intervention plan.

The financial sector kept the momentum going, after the Federal Reserve gave the green light for several big banks to raise dividends and buy back shares. Among the firms to announce dividend hikes were JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and USBancorp (USB, Fortune 500), which each saw their shares climb.

The Libyan government announced an immediate cease-fire after the United Nations voted to impose a no-fly zone over the country. However, witnesses in the besieged city of Misrata told CNN a fierce pro-government assault was persisting.

Oil prices, which had ticked higher on the U.N. vote, turned lower after the cease-fire announcement. Crude prices fell 25 cents to $101.15 a barrel. Earlier in the session, prices neared $104.

And while Japan continues to struggle with its nuclear power plants, the Group of Seven major economic powers announced a coordinated intervention to prevent the Japanese yen from rising further. The announcement helped the yen ease and boosted the Nikkei 2.7%.

"It's good to see leaders acting to provide stabilization in the currency market -- it gives the market confidence," said Anthony Conroy, head trader with BNY ConvergEx.

The Japanese yen had been driven sharply higher in recent days by global uncertainty and the prospect of more cash flowing into Japan.

Because Japan is heavily reliant on exports to drive its economy, a strong yen would put a difficult headwind against what is already a struggling economy, said Bill Stone, chief investment strategist with PNC Financial.

"A little weakness in the yen would be a good thing," Stone said.

U.S. stocks closed broadly higher Thursday, rebounding after two days of sharp declines.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE-100 added 0.4%, the DAX in Germany notched up 0.1% and France's CAC 40 gained 0.6%.

Aside from the Nikkei, other Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added less than 0.1%.

Companies: Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) shares rose 0.8% after the company announced a new 6 cents-a-share dividend.

Nike (NKE, Fortune 500) shares tumbled 9% after the company reported disappointing earnings and said it would raise prices on many of its products because of higher commodity prices.

Celera (CRA) shares soared 34% Friday after Quest Diagnostics (DGX, Fortune 500) announced it would buy Celera for $344 million, or $8 a share.

Shares of tax-software maker Intuit (INTU) rose 3% after the company said that the number of users of its TurboTax software jumped 7% compared to a year ago.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro, but gained versus the British pound.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $11.90, or 0.8%, to trade at $1,416.10 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.26% from 3.27% late Thursday.

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Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Buying faded in afternoon trade after a heavy flow of encouraging headlines had initially helped the major equity averages ascend more 1%. Stocks still settled with varied gains, though.

Given the economic consequences that could arise from a rapidly rising yen, the G7 announced a coordinated plan to intervene on behalf of the Japanese currency after it set a record high against the greenback yesterday. Although the yen pulled back against the dollar, other currencies continued to climb so that the Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level in more than a year. An increase in Japan's nuclear accident alert level from 4 to 5 on a scale of 7 was given less attention.

News that Libya's Foreign Minister announced intentions for an immediate ceasefire following the UN's decision to implement a no-fly zone over the country was also met with a positive response, although it cauised oil prices to retreat and spend pit trade in the red.

The diminution of headline risk encouraged broad-based buying in the early going, such that the stock market was able to extend its rally from the prior session to fully offset the steep loss that was suffered this past Wednesday. However, once the buzz of morning trade started to subside, stocks began to surrender some of their gains then gradually drifted into the close.

Part of the afternoon drift is due to a loss of support from large-cap tech issues. Their weakness caused the Nasdaq Composite to trail its counterparts and actually sent the Nasdaq 100 to a 0.2% loss.

Airline shares were able to climb even though the broader market lost its momentum. As a group, airlines ascended almost 4%.

A few bank stocks were able to hold on to most of their gains following word that the Federal Reserve completed its Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review. Favorable findings prompted JPMorgan Chase (JPM 45.74, +1.18), Wells Fargo (WFC 31.83, +0.47), and US Bank (USB 26.65, +0.30) to approve share repurchase plans and increase regular dividend payments, or at least issue special dividends.

Cisco Systems (CSCO 17.14, +0.14) announced plans for its own quarterly cash dividend, which will be first ever for the firm.

Nike (NKE 77.59, -7.82) found only negative attention this session. The company disappointed its investors by delivering an earnings miss for its latest quarter. Its shares were then downgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Participation was robust this session quadruple witching options expiration. Heightened activity drove share volume on the NYSE to 1.9 billion. DJ30 +83.93 NASDAQ +7.62 NQ100 -0.2% R2K +1.2% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +5.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1786/2.59 bln/843 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2135/1.90 bln/827

3:30 pm : Commodities, save for energy (-0.4%), finished higher today. Grains once again were the largest advancing sector, tacking on 3.2%, and rallying for 8.6% over the past two sessions. May corn closed higher by 5.7% to $6.83 per bushel.

Volatile trade returned for April crude oil, which finished lower by 0.4% to $101.07 per barrel. In overnight trade, crude oil rallied on news that the UN had passed the no-fly zone resolution. Heading into the open of pit trade, however, crude oil sold off after the Foreign Minister of Libya said it would call for an immediate ceasefire. It was a quiet session there after with crude ending near unchanged. April natural gas ended near unchanged at $4.16 per MMBtu.

April gold closed higher by 0.8% to $1416.10 per ounce, while May silver rallied for 2.3% to finish at $35.05 per ounce. Both metals moved higher as money sought a safe haven amidst G-7 intervention on the behalf of the yen. DJ30 +71.21 NASDAQ +5.80 SP500 +3.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1729/1.8 bln/872 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2044/955.5 mln/889

3:00 pm : Buying interest continues to wane. That has left the stock market to drift to a fresh session low with only an hour left in trade.DJ30 +68.94 NASDAQ +8.89 SP500 +4.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1781/1.68 bln/827 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2191/900 mln/759

2:30 pm : Stocks are gradually giving back some of their gains. That has left the major equity averages to trade at session lows. However, airline stocks continue to sport rich gains. Specifically, airline stocks are up 3.7% as a group. Their ascent this session stems from a combination of broad market support and a pullback in oil prices.DJ30 +80.90 NASDAQ +12.00 SP500 +6.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1745/1.58 bln/832 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2122/849 mln/795

2:00 pm : Although the G7 has announced plans to make a coordinated intervention in the yen in order to stymie its climb against the greenback, favor for other foreign currencies has cut down the Dollar Index so that it now trades at 75.6, which marks its lowest level since December 2009.

Weakness in the dollar likely helped spur precious metals higher this session. Gold prices closed pit trade at $1416.70 per ounce, up $12.50, and silver settled at $35.05 per ounce, up $0.79. DJ30 +105.27 NASDAQ +18.09 SP500 +9.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1846/1.47 bln/737 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2239/801 mln/687

1:30 pm : Europe's major equity averages are now closed for the week. Most settled off of session highs, but still successfully extended their prior session advance, which came only after many of them fell in six straight sessions. Among Europe's top performing bourses and indices for Friday, Portugal's PSI spiked 1.3%, France's CAC climbed 0.6%, and Britain's FTSE advanced 0.4%. Germany's DAX advanced only 0.1%.

As for action in Asia, Japan's Nikkei bounded to a 2.7% gain after it had rallied more than 5% in the prior session. Hong Kong's Hang Seng mustered a mere 0.1% gain. China's Shanghai Composite wasn't much better; it gained just 0.3% in its final session of the week. DJ30 +111.33 NASDAQ +16.44 SP500 +9.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1812/1.38 bln/747 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2262/763 mln/658

1:00 pm : Stocks have extended the prior session's bounce as participants return with a broad-based bid following news that the G7 will intervene in the yen's climb against the greenback and UN efforts to quell social turmoil in Libya. Dividend hikes have been of additional support to banking plays.

The Japanese yen set a record high against the greenback yesterday, but in order to prevent negative economic consequences of a continued climb the G7 announced coordinated plans to intervene in the currency. That news helped Japan's Nikkei extend its prior session rally by another 2.7% and overshadowed an increase in Japan's nuclear accident alert level.

The mood among market participants has also been helped by the diminution of headline risk related to social unrest in North Africa after Libya's Foreign Minister announced intentions for an immediate ceasefire following the UN's decision to implement a no-fly zone over the country. The announcement also sent oil prices retreating into the red, where they trade with a 0.8% loss at around $100.60.

Completion of the Federal Reserve's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review has opened the door for many of the more capitalized banks to hike their dividend payments and share repurchase plans. JPMorgan Chase (JPM 45.73, +1.17), Wells Fargo (WFC 32.00, +0.64), and US Bank (USB 26.95, +0.60) all announced plans for either increases to regular dividend payments or special dividend payments as well as share repurchase plans.

Cisco Systems (CSCO 17.22, +0.22) announced plans for its own quarterly cash dividend, which will be the firm's first ever.

In other corporate news, Nike (NKE 77.70, -7.71) posted an earnings miss for its latest quarter. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have downgraded the stock.

Stocks are off of session highs, but strength remains broad based. That has helped suppress volatility for the second straight session. The Volatility Index is now down about 20% from the multi-month high that was set this past Wednesday.

Volatility may be down, but share volume is up sharply with today's quadruple witching options expiration. DJ30 +107.50 NASDAQ +12.42 SP500 +8.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1763/1.29 bln/779 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2223/725 mln/668

12:30 pm : Stocks have reclaimed some of their gains, but remain off of session highs. The Dow continues to sport a lead over its counterparts -- the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite.

Volatility is down for the second straight session. Two consecutive sessions of solid buying interest has the Volatility Index down about 20% from the eight-month high that was set this past Wednesday. DJ30 +119.99 NASDAQ +13.77 SP500 +10.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1769/1.20 bln/756 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2237/681 mln/637

12:00 pm : The Federal Reserve announced that it has completed the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, which is its cross-institution study of the capital plans of the 19 largest U.S. bank holding companies. As a result of the Fed's findings, some firms are expected to increase or restart dividend payments, buy back shares, or repay government capital.

As such, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.15, +1.59) raised its quarterly dividend to $0.25 from $0.05 and announced that it has authorized a $15 billion share repurchase plan. Wells Fargo (WFC 32.14, +0.78) announced that a special dividend of $0.07 will be added it its regular quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share. The bank has also announced authorization for a 200-million share buyback plan. US Bank (USB 27.04, +0.69) increased its quarterly dividend to $0.125 from $0.0425 per share and a 50-million share buyback authorization. BB&T Corp (BBT 27.32, +0.45) hiked its quarterly dividend to $0.16 per share and announced that it will pay a special $0.01 dividend in the second quarter.

Shares of the diversified and regional banks have reacted positively to the news. Most of their shares are now at or near session highs. DJ30 +110.68 NASDAQ +8.05 SP500 +8.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1690/1.09 bln/808 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2147/630 mln/702

11:30 am : Stocks have surrendered some of their gains in recent trade. That has left the major equity averages to trade at their lowest levels since this morning.

Of the headline indices, the Nasdaq Composite has made the deepest downturn. Although it is still up with a healthy gain, it has handed back about half of what it had achieved. Apple (AAPL 331.54, -3.10) has been a particularly heavy drag on the tech-rich Nasdaq. The stock's downturn today hasn't been deep enough to take shares back to the one-month low that was set on Wednesday, but it has nearly offset the gain that it was recorded on Thursday. DJ30 +99.93 NASDAQ +9.91 SP500 +8.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1806/940 mln/665 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2280/565 mln/549

11:00 am : Stocks continue to trade with strength. Cisco Systems (CSCO 17.34, +0.34) is a top performer among blue chips for the first time in several weeks. The stock's upward push this session comes amid news that the companany plans to pay its first ever quarterly cash dividend of $0.06 per share. The dividend will be paid on April 20, 2011 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 31, 2011. As an aside, Cisco has about $40 billion of cash and 5.5 billion shares outstanding.

McDonald's (MCD 73.39, -0.01) is currently the only Dow component to trade with a loss. Shares are only down by a penny, though.DJ30 +127.75 NASDAQ +16.40 SP500 +11.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1761/790 mln/632 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 252/508 mln/519

10:30 am : Crude oil fell sharply about 20 minutes before pit trade was to begin after the Libyan Foreign Minister said it will close all air space and have decided on an immediate ceasefire. That pulled crude ~$2.50/barrel lower to around $101.40, into negative territory and new session lows. Crude put in new session lows of $100.32 in recent trade and is now down 0.2% at $100.48 per barrel.

April natural gas followed crude along, losing ~1.7% and pulling the energy component into negative territory and new session lows of $4.11. It's currently 2% lower at $4.12 per MMBtu.

Precious metals have remained steadily higher this morning. April gold is up 1.1% at $1419.10 per ounce, while May silver is up 2.7% at $35.17 per ounce.

Grains are sharply higher, largely on strong Asian imports and unfavorable weather in the Americas. May corn is +5.1% at $6.7925/bu, May wheat is +4.5% at $7.42/bu and May soybeans are +1.0% at $13.4825/bu.DJ30 103.34 NASDAQ 11.17 SP500 9.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1729/623.0 mln/603 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2190/447.0 mln/538

10:05 am : Retailers are trading as laggards for the second straight session. The group is up only 0.2% following an earnings miss by Nike (NKE 77.70, -7.71) and a subsequent downgrade of the stock by analysts at Goldman Sachs. Shares of NKE now sit near six-month lows.

Share volume in early trade is robust. The near 400 million shares that have already traded hands on the NYSE is due to today's quadruple witching options expiration. In addition to share volume, options trading could also stoke volatility. DJ30 +120.48 NASDAQ +17.40 SP500 +12.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1846/410 mln/413 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2238/380 mln/441

09:50 am : Stocks are up with strong gains in the first few minutes of trade. The bid has been broad based, but airline stocks are seeing some of the strongest interest. In turn, airline shares are collectively up 2.9%. Their ascent comes amid a combination of broad market support and a pullback in oil prices to $101.10 per barrel, which makes for a 0.3% loss.DJ30 +118.33 NASDAQ +20.99 SP500 +12.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1839/264 mln/331 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2076/328 mln/309

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +16.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.10. Stock futures suggest a strong start to the final session of the week is in order. The bid comes amid serveral headlines, including news that concerns about economic implications compelled the G7 to intervene in the yen's climb against the greenback -- just yesterday the yen set a record high against the greenback. Also, Libya's Foreign Minister announced intentions for an immediate ceasefire following the UN's decision to implement a no-fly zone over the country. Those events have helped overshadow an increase in Japan's nuclear accidident alert level to 5 from 4 [on scale of 7] and another 50 basis point increase in China's reserve requirement ratio.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +15.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.70. Oil prices in the April contract had been above $103 per barrel in electronic trade amid news that the UN Security Council established a no-fly zone over Libya, but they have retreated sharply to about $101 per barrel, where they trade with a $0.40 loss, in the wake of reports that Libya's Foreign Minister said all air space in the country will be closed and that an immediate ceasefire will be implemented. Natural gas prices in the April contract are down little more than $0.02 to just below $4.16 per MMBtu. Precious metals have attracted support this morning. Specifically, gold prices in the May contract are up $13.90 to $1418.70 per ounce, while May silver prices are up sharply by $0.84 to $35.10 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.70. Futures for the S&P 500 continue to sport a strong lead over fair value. The tone of trade in Europe also remains upbeat. As such, Germany's DAX is up 0.4%. The country's PPI increased by 0.7% in February after it had increased by 1.2% in January. France's CAC has climbed to a 0.7% gain and Britain's FTSE has advanced to a 0.5% gain. The United Kingdom's Nationwide Consumer Confidence poll for February came in at 38, down from 48 in January. Strength in Europe comes as currency volatility is quelled by news that the G7 will make a coordinated intervention in the yen due to the economic implications of the yen's rapid rise in recent sessions to record levels against the greenback. The news helped Japan's Nikkei extend its prior session bounce by climbing another 2.7% in a broad-based move. Fast Retailing was atop the list of leading issues. Hong Kong's Hang Seng eked out a mere 0.1% gain. PetroChina (PTR) proved to be a heavy drag on trade following the company's latest quarterly report yesterday.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.40. Stock futures suggest that the market will extend its prior session advance. Renewed support comes as overseas markets push higher in the wake of news that the G7 has agreed to coordinated intervention in the yen, which had moved to record highs against the greenback yesterday. Japan also announced that it has raised its nuclear safety alert level to 5 from 4. In response to ongoing social and political turmoil in Libya the UN Security Council has officially established a no-fly zone in the country and has authorized the use of force to protect civilians. In other headlines, China's central bank raised its reserve requirement ratio by another 50 basis points.

06:46 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.40.

06:45 am : Nikkei...9206.75...+244.10...+2.70%. Hang Seng...22300.23...+15.80...+0.10%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5707.98...+11.90...+0.20%. DAX...6676.47...+19.60...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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