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 Post subject: March 17th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.90
PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2011 5:28 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
I was a lot more careful today in Emini TF because I was still trading the March H contract that lacked volume and volatility in comparison to the June M contract. Hopefully tomorrow with the expiration of March H, things will get back to normal and I'll be trading the June M contract with charts. With that said, usually big gap days are very profitable for me if I can catch good trades prior to any low volatility tight trading range shows up. I was able to do just that today. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +10.90 points or $10.90 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=783.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=965

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Dow Jumps 160 After Two Days Of Losses
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
March 17, 2011: 4:39 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed broadly higher Thursday, after two days of heavy losses on Wall Street, as investors cheered an upbeat outlook from economic bellwether FedEx.

Despite today's gains, trading has been volatile this week as investors remain jumpy about the nuclear crisis in Japan.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) jumped 161 points, or 1.4%, to 11,775. The Dow had 26 out of its 30 members close higher during the session, led by shares of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) and Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500).

The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 17 points, or 1.3%, to 1,274, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 19 points, or 0.73%, to 2,636.

Among the best performers in the S&P 500 were Federal Express (FDX, Fortune 500) and United Parcel Service (UPS, Fortune 500). FedEx issued earnings guidance that topped analysts' forecasts and said it still expected moderate economic growth this year.

Investors typically view FedEx and UPS as good indicators about the economy because of their roles in transporting billions of dollars worth of goods every year.

Railroad stocks also rose, with shares of CSX (CSX, Fortune 500), Norfolk Southern (NSC, Fortune 500) and Union Pacific (UNP, Fortune 500) all up 2.5% or more.

The recovery came a day after U.S. stocks posted steep losses, with all three major indexes hitting their lowest levels of the year on ongoing concerns about Japan's nuclear reactor.

"The news continues to be frustratingly unclear out of Japan," said Kate Warne, investment strategist with Edward Jones. "It's been a lot of selling and asking questions later, but there's more going on in the world than just Japan."

Japan has been aggressively working to avert a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, following last week's devastating earthquake and tsunami. (CNN.com's Japan coverage)

Warne said she believes Japan's problems will not spill over into the global economy.

"People have been reacting to the pictures on the screen, not to what Japan means six months forward," Warne said. "I don't think longer-term impact of the tsunami and reactors will derail global growth or derail corporate earnings."

World markets: Asian markets fell, with the Nikkei in Japan (NKY) falling 1.4%, the Shanghai Composite sliding 1.1%, and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong losing 1.8%.

But stocks in London, Frankfurt and Paris closed higher after French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde initiated a Group of Seven conference call to discuss ways to support Japan. The U.S. dollar hit an all-time low against the yen on Wednesday.

The G7 call -- which includes finance and central banking leaders from the United States, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Canada, Italy and Germany -- is scheduled for later Thursday.

Lagarde told reporters that the group will discuss buying Japanese bonds as one possible way to shore up the world's third-largest economy.

Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.8%, the DAX in Germany gained 2.2% and France's CAC 40 added 2.4%.

Companies: Shares of The New York Times (NYT). rose as much as 4% Thursday after the company revealed details about its much-anticipated pay wall system. Shares closed up only 0.3% at the end of the day, however.

Shares of Nike (NKE, Fortune 500) dropped 6% after the market close after the athletic apparel maker said it had a third-quarter profit of $1.08. The earnings were well short of the $1.12 a share analysts were looking for, according to Briefing.com.

Economy: The U.S. consumer price index has risen 2.1% in the past year, according to the Commerce Department. That marked the fastest rate since April 2010. Underlying inflation remained low.

In other reports, the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 385,000 last week. Continuing claims hit their lowest level since September 2008.

Currencies and commodities: The disaster in Japan has driven the yen sharply higher against the dollar on demand for safe-haven assets and speculation that more cash will flow back into the country as it rebuilds. After the dollar hit an all-time low versus the yen on Wednesday, it edged about 1% higher early Thursday.

Meanwhile, the dollar fell against the euro and the British pound.

Oil for April delivery jumped $3.60 or 3.7%, to $101.56 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $8.90 to $1,405.00 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.27%.

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Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks staged a strong bounce after they had logged sizable losses for three straight sessions in reaction to a massive earthquake in Japan, subsequent failures at that country's nuclear facilities, and ongoing social and political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa.

Buyers stepped back into action today with a broad-based bid that took the Dow and S&P 500 up more than 1%. The Nasdaq also staged a strong gain, but lagged its counterparts amid weakness in Amazon.com (AMZN 160.97, -3.73), which descended to a new three-month low.

Energy stocks were leaders in the broader market. As such, the Energy Select SPDR (XLE 76.00, +2.25) spiked to a 3% gain. The sector was helped by a spike in crude oil prices, which settled pit trade with a 3.5% gain at $101.42 per barrel.

Despite the spike in oil prices, global delivery outfit FedEx (FDX 87.89, +2.61) was a top performer following its strong forecast, which overshadowed an earnings miss for the latest quarter.

Disappointing guidance from Guess? (GES 37.71, -6.16) overshadowed the retailer's upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter. Weakness in the stock caused retailers to trail the broader market. As such, the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT 47.99, -0.18) fell firmly.

A deluge of data was released this morning, but none of it was met with much of a reaction.

Initial weekly jobless claims for the week ended March 12 totaled 385,000, which is on par with the 386,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Initial claims for the prior week were revised upward to 401,000.

Consumer prices for February increased by 0.5%, which is greater than the 0.4% that had been widely expected. The stronger-than-expected increase follows a 0.4% increase for the prior month. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices increased by 0.2%, which is more than the 0.1% increase that had been broadly anticipated. Core consumer prices also increased by 0.2% in the prior month.

The Philadelphia Fed Index for March surged to a 25-year high of 43.4, which blew out the Briefing.com consensus 28.1.

Leading Indicators for February increased by 0.8%, but that is less than the 1.0% that had been broadly expected. Industrial production decreased by 0.1% in Februay. It had been broadly expected to increase by 0.6%.

None of today's data was able to help generate support for the dollar, which continued its descent against Japan's yen. The yen's rapid ascent to record levels against the greenback has stirred speculation about an intervention by Japan's Minister of Finance and central bank. DJ30 +161.29 NASDAQ +19.23 NQ100 +1.0% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.6% SP500 +16.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1569/1.99 bln/1002 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2198/1.03 bln/806

3:30 pm : Commodities finished higher across the board today, led by a 5.4% rally in grains. May wheat surged 7.9% to close at $7.14 per bushel, while May corn ended limit up at $6.46, higher by 4.9%.

The Energy sector added 3.4%, led by a 5.7% rally in April natural gas, which closed at $4.16 per MMBtu. It notched highs at $4.16, its best levels in close to 1.5 months. This morning's larger than expected draw down in inventories acted as the catalyst to today's rally. April crude oil surged 3.5% to close at $101.42 per barrel, its best close in around a week. Today's session was substantially less volatile than the previous, evidenced by the absence of short volatile moves in prices. With the risk trade back for the time being, markets once again refocused on the Middle East.

Precious metals, which gained 0.2% on the day, were the laggard sector today. It was a relatively quiet session for the precious metal as April gold finished higher by 0.5% to $1403.80 per ounce and May silver ended lower by 0.5% to $34.25 per ounce. DJ30 +134.30 NASDAQ +19.43 SP500 +14.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1698/1.5 bln/861 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2232/675.2 mln/744

3:00 pm : Stocks have reclaimed some of the gains that they lost in afternoon trade. The positive tone among traders this session has given advancing issues a near 3-to-1 advantage over decliners on the NYSE. Still, stocks remain shy of the session highs that were set earlier today.DJ30 +138.35 NASDAQ +25.39 SP500 +15.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1648/1.41 bln/887 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2154/615 mln/793

2:30 pm : Stocks remain off of session highs, but they continue to sport broad-based gains. However, retailers have had a hard time participating in today's bounce. As a group, shares of retailers are up only fractionally. A disappointing earnings report from Guess? (GES 39.00, -4.87) has weighed on the space.

Outside of equities, oil prices have extended their push into the final minutes of pit trade. Oil prices were recently quoted with a near 4% gain at almost $102 per barrel. DJ30 +110.92 NASDAQ +20.91 SP500 +12.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1595/1.29 bln/927 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2080/570 mln/851

2:00 pm : Stocks have extended their recent downturn so that the major equity averages are now at session lows. Still, overall gains remain relatively strong.

Despite the stock market's recent slip, Treasuries have retreated. Yields had been approaching session lows, but they have since retraced that move.

Participation hasn't been as strong today as it was yesterday -- about a half billion shares have been exchanged on the NYSE up to this point.DJ30 +97.79 NASDAQ +20.47 SP500 +11.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1674/1.19 bln/836 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2187/515 mln/742

1:30 pm : A recent flurry of selling has pulled stocks back a bit, but the major equity averages continue to boast strong gains for the session.

Amid the stock market's recent slip, Treasuries have trimmed a substantial portion of their losses. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is now down only a few ticks. That has yields near their lows for the day. DJ30 +101.16 NASDAQ +25.24 SP500 +12.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1856/1.06 bln/649 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2375/460 mln/571

1:05 pm : Stocks suffered a cumulative loss of 3.6% over the past three sessions. The sell-off left the S&P 500 to settle below its 100-day moving average yesterday for the first time since September, but buyers have stepped back in to provide stocks with some relief.

The S&P 500 is down 5% from the two-year high that it set one month ago amid ongoing headline risk related to social and political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and more recently from the fears that have stemmed from the massive earthquake and subsequent failures at nuclear facilities in Japan. Today, though, the mood among participants has improved considerably, such that the stock market is on pace for its best single-day performance in two weeks.

Energy stocks have provided the most leadership. Strength in the sector is broad, but oil and gas equipment and exploration plays have exhibited the most strength.

FedEx (FDX 89.01, +3.73) is another top performer following a strong forecast, which has overshadowed an earnings miss for the latest quarter. The global delivery company's strength also comes in the face of a bounce by oil prices back toward $101 per barrel.

In contrast, utilities stocks have failed to find any meaningful support. The sector has been in the red all session with a modest loss as electricity generation plays come under pressure.

While the broad market has put together an impressive performance today, the dollar's doldrums continue. Its weakness in recent sessions comes as the yen climbs to record levels. The yen's rapid ascent has stirred speculation about an intervention by Japan's Minister of Finance and central bank.

Participants got a big dose of data today, but the broad market seemed to take it in stride. The latest initial weekly jobless claims tally totaled 385,000, which is on par with what had been broadly expected.

Overall consumer prices for February increased 0.5%. Core prices increased by 0.2%. Both were on the order of what had been widely anticipated.

The Philadelphia Fed Index for March surged to a 25-year high of 43.4, which blew out the Briefing.com consensus.

Leading Indicators for February increased by a slightly smaller-than-expected 0.8%, but only industrial production for February really disappointed with its 0.1% slip in the face of consensus forecasts for an increase of about 0.6%. DJ30 +152.54 NASDAQ +36.77 SP500 +18.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1840/990 mln/636 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2330/425 mln/599

12:30 pm : Steady buying continues to keep stocks up with heady gains. Though impressive, the move does little to offset the losses suffered in recent weeks. In fact, the S&P 500 is still down 5% from the two-year high that it set one month ago. The descent from that point has come mostly amid social and political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and more recently from the fears that have stemmed from the massive earthquake and subsequent failure at nuclear facilities in Japan. Headline risk related to those events remains.DJ30 +148.38 NASDAQ +37.00 SP500 +18.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1843/879 mln/638 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2319/388 mln/586

12:00 pm : Energy stocks are collectively up nearly 3%, as measured by the Energy Select SPDR (XLE 75.72, +1.97). Energy issues make up this session's top performing sector. In contrast, utilities stocks continue to underperform as the only major sector that failed to stage a gain -- the Utilities SPDR (XLU 30.85, -0.14) is down about 0.4%.

Among energy plays, oil and gas exploration plays like Schlumberger (SLB 86.68, +3.58) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV 77.51, +3.11) are the top performers. As for utilities, energy generation giant Exelon (EXC 39.44, -0.51) continues to trade lower; it set a new six-month low this morning.DJ30 +133.51 NASDAQ +35.78 SP500 +16.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1829/800 mln/625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2306/345 mln/570

11:30 am : Stocks have eased off of session highs, but they continue to trade with impressive gains. As things currently stand, the stock market is on pace for its best single-session performance in two weeks.

In contrast, the dollar continues to trade with weakness. That has left the Dollar Index to trade with a 0.9% loss to set a new four-month low that is within close reach of its 52-week closing low. The dollar's decline comes as the carry trade between the greenback and the Japanese yen is unwound. DJ30 +128.55 NASDAQ +37.29 SP500 +16.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1890/668 mln/537 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2373/290 mln/483

11:00 am : Stocks continue to preserve robust gains. Apple (AAPL 338.70, +8.70) is a primary leader following news that analysts at Credit Suisse assigned an Outperform rating to the stock. Just yesterday the stock fell to its lowest level in more than a month amid broad market weakness and a downgrade by analysts at JMP Securities.

However, Wireless Ronin (RNIN 1.38, +0.31) is this session's strongest performer by percent gained. The small-cap stock has surged almost 30% following news that the company has entered into a teaming and co-marketing agreement with Sprint (S 5.01, +0.14). DJ30 +160.98 NASDAQ +40.57 SP500 +20.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1891/531 mln/514 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2413/230 mln/425

10:30 am : The dollar index remains weak this morning, which is providing strength to most commodities. In the CRB Index, 16 of its 19 components are trading higher led by sugar +3.3%, wheat +3.0% and copper +2.9%.

Natural gas futures trended higher overnight, hitting session highs an hour before pit trading began. Ahead of inventory data it was $0.03 higher at $3.96 per MMBtu. Following the data, which showed a draw of 56 bcf versus consensus of a draw down of 42 bcf, natural gas pushed to new session highs and is now +0.096 at $4.03 per MMBtu.

Crude oil is back near the $100 level as commodities are seeing a broad-based rally. Ongoing events in Japan, a weak dollar and strength in the Nikkei are providing additional strength in crude this morning. In current trade, its +2.2% at $100.13 per barrel.

Precious metals are mixed after gold erased its overnight losses. Gold moved into positive territory near the end of the overnight session and has been in positive territory since. It has pulled back somewhat, but remains above the $1400 level at $1400.40 +4.30 (+0.3%). Silver has gained modestly in recent trade, but remains slightly lower at $34.38 -0.08 (or -0.2%).DJ30 +167.79 NASDAQ +39.71 SP500 +21.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1889/345.4 mln/450 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2363/166.5 mln/413

10:00 am : Stocks continue to trade with strength. The Philadelphia Fed Index for March has provided support to this morning's bid. It surged to a 25-year high of 43.4, which blew out the Briefing.com consensus.

Leading Indicators for February were less impressive. They increased by 0.8%, which is less than the 1.0% that had been broadly expected. DJ30 +122.31 NASDAQ +30.83 SP500 +15.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1802/195 mln/455 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2317/105 mln/417

09:45 am : Strong buying in the first few minutes of trade has all three of the major equity averages up in excess of 1%. Although the bid has been broad based, utilities stocks have failed to find support. In turn, the Dow Jones Utility Average is down 0.4%.

Meanwhile, a strong forecast from FedEx (FDX 89.40, +4.12) has helped the Dow Jones Transportation Index climb to a 1.6% gain, which has come in the face of higher oil prices. Futures contract prices for the energy component recently cleared $100 per barrel, but it has since eased back by about a dime. DJ30 +124.58 NASDAQ +30.06 SP500 +15.78

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +20.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +34.40. Stock futures suggest that a strong opening is in order. The bid comes amid renewed strength among Europe's major bourses, which have rebounded sharply after suffering several sizable losses during the past week. Strength in Europe comes despite another round of losses among Asia's major equity averages. Initial weekly jobless claims came down in line with expectations and increases to February CPI were of little surprise. However, industrial production decreased by 0.1% in Februay. It had been broadly expected to increase by 0.6%.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +20.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +36.70. Europe's major bourses are up with impressive gains following broad weakness in recent sessions. Germany's DAX logged losses in each of the last six sessions, but is up 1.8% this session. Of its 30 components, Commerzbank is the only issue that has failed to put together a gain. France's CAC is currently up 1.7%. Britain's FTSE is up 1.4% after falling in 11 of the last 13 sessions. Real estate plays have provided leadership in the latest round of trade. Unable to preserve their rebound in the prior session, Asia's major averages succumbed to renewed selling pressure. Japan's Nikkei logged a 1.4% loss, but only after it had rallied back from a much sharper drop. Concerns related to radiation leaks at compromised nuclear facilities continue. Hong Kong's Hang Seng suffered a 1.8% drop.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +17.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +28.00. Stock futures continue to trade with strength in the wake of the latest dose of data. Initial weekly jobless claims for the week ended March 12 totaled 385,000, which is on par with the 386,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Initial claims for the prior week were revised upward to 401,000. Continuing claims came down to 3.71 million from 3.79 million. Consumer prices for February increased by 0.5%, which is greater than the 0.4% that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The stronger-than-expected increase follows a 0.4% increase for the prior month. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices increased by 0.2%, which is more than the 0.1% increase that had been broadly anticipated. Core consumer prices also increased by 0.2% in the prior month.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +23.70. Stocks have logged losses in seven of the past nine sessions, but some relief appears to be in order this morning as stock futures point to a positive start to trade. This morning's bid comes as Europe's major bourses bounce after further losses overnight among Asia's major averages. Although Japan's stock market succumbed to further selling, the yen continues to gain ground against the greenback -- it was last quoted with a 0.5% gain at about 78.50 yen per dollar. Oil has added to its price gain from the prior session by climbing 1.8% to $99.73 per barrel in electronic trade amid continued tumult in the Middle East and North Africa. Reports indicate that the UN has drafted a resolution to impose a No-Fly Zone over Libya. In corporate news, FedEx (FDX) came short of the consensus earnings estimate for its latest quarter, but issued strong guidance. The stock is up about 4% ahead of the open. Fifth Third (FITB) is up only modestly in premarket trade following news that the bank has repurchased the warrant issued to the Treasury Dept. The bottom of the hour brings the latest CPI figure and weekly jobless claims. Industrial production data are due at 9:15 AM ET. Leading Indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Survey follow at 10:00 AM ET.

07:32 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.20.

07:32 am : Nikkei...8962.67...-131.10...-1.40%. Hang Seng...22284.43...-416.50...-1.80%.

07:32 am : FTSE...5638.68...+40.50...+0.70%. DAX...6569.98...+56.10...+0.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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