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 Post subject: March 16th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points -0.10
PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2011 7:02 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
I'm still having data problems but I did trade today. However, a few missed trade opportunities and not wanting to be aggressive while having data problems produced a losing trading day of being down $10 dollars before commissions. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: -0.10 points or ($10.00) dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=782.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=965

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Rough Day For Stocks: S&P 500, Nasdaq Erase Year's Gains
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The S&P 500 lost nearly 25 points, or 2%, Wednesday. That steep drop put the benchmark index down 0.1% for the year.

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporter
March 16, 2011: 5:49 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- A sell-off in U.S. stocks accelerated Wednesday, with all three major indexes ending at their lowest levels of 2011.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite erased their gains for the year, while the Dow is barely hanging on, up only 0.3% in 2011.

Trading was extremely choppy as investors tried to sort out disappointing U.S. housing data against the backdrop of developments in Japan.

It didn't help that European Union energy commissioner Günther Oettinger sounded a warning bell about increased risks related to Japan's crippled nuclear reactors at a meeting in Brussels.

Moreover, the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo cautioned American citizens who live within 50 miles of the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant to evacuate or take shelter indoors.

"Today's not a good news day, and the market is reacting emotionally," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) tumbled 242 points, or 2%, with all 30 components of the blue chip index in the red. IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) and American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) led the decline. The index was down almost 300 points at its low for the day.

The S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 25 points, or 2%, to end at 1,256.88. The broad index closed 2010 at 1,257.64.

The Nasdaq (COMP) lost 51 points, or 1.9%, to finish at 2,616.82. The tech-heavy index closed at 2,652.87 last year.

* Dollar matches all-time low against yen

Global concerns also pushed the dollar below ¥80 briefly, hitting ¥79.75, matching the record low hit in April 1995 (More on currencies).

Wall Street's most widely cited measure of volatility, the VIX (VIX), surged more than 20% to 29.40. Earlier, it climbed above 30 for the first time since July.

Dickson is advising his clients to get to the sidelines until the picture of the nuclear threat in Japan becomes clearer.

Wednesday's declines came on the heels of a sharp sell-off in the previous session, which was dominated by worries about Japan.

Japan in crisis: In a televised speech Wednesday, Japan's emperor told citizens not to give up hope as the country grapples with an epic earthquake.

"It's quite rare of the emperor to appear on television, and that has made investors a little nervous," said David Jones, chief market strategist with IG Markets in London.

Prior to the speech, Tokyo's Nikkei index rose 5.7%, rebounding from two days of losses that had drained more than 16% from the index.

* Video 2:33 mins -Putting Fukushima in context

The increasingly desperate situation at Japan's nuclear plants is keeping investors on edge.

Stunned by the devastation in Japan, they have been reducing their exposure to risky assets and flocking to investments that are considered safe, including U.S. Treasuries. Investors continued to buy up U.S. government debt Wednesday, sending the 10-year yield down to 3.23% from 3.32% late Tuesday.

Aside from Japan, Moody's Investors Service cut Egypt's rating by one notch, further into non-investment grade quality.

And late Tuesday, Moody's downgraded Portugal's credit rating from A1 to A3 -- a lower investment grade status. And Fitch downgraded Bahrain's debt to below investment grade, following a government clash with protesters.

Asian markets ended higher, with the Shanghai Composite index rising 1.2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index edging up 0.1%.

European markets closed sharply lower. The FTSE 100 dropped 0.8%, and France's CAC 40 and DAX in Germany tumbled more than 1%. (World markets)
0:00 /1:09Nasdaq has eyes on NYSE

Economy: The government said new home construction fell 22.5% in February, more than economists were expecting, while the number of permits for future housing construction fell 8.2% to all all-time low.

Separately, the government's Producer Price Index showed that prices at the wholesale level jumped 1.6% in February, which was much more than expected.

Commodities: Oil prices -- which fell nearly 4% on Tuesday -- were higher Wednesday, as concerns about the ongoing turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East were revived. Oil for April delivery gained 80 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $97.98 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery climbed $3.30 to settle at $1,396.10 an ounce.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Soured sentiment amid ongoing headline risk caused stocks to set a new low for 2011. Although the market worked its way up from that point, it still suffered its seventh loss in nine sessions.

Market participants continue to grapple with threats of nuclear fallout in Japan and further instability surrounding the social and political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. Uncertainty regarding portfolio positioning amid those themes has made many become defensive, or even skittish.

Fret among investors became most apparent during an aggressive midday selling effort that dropped the S&P 500 to a new two-month low of 1249. The Volatility Index, often euphemistically dubbed the Fear Gauge, simultaneously spiked to its highest level since last summer.

Even though stocks logged another loss, the major averages were able to work their way off of session lows. Some participants continue to abide by the buy-the-dip philosophy that had frequently proven so successful in previous weeks.

While the dollar traded with strength amid losses in the stock market, the greenback actually lost ground against the yen. The Japanese currency actually hit 79.72 yen per dollar, which makes for its highest level in more than 15 years. Many pundits attribute the yen's strength to an unwind in the carry trade.

Data generally disappointed today. First on the list of releases is a housing starts report that showed a 22.5% drop in February to an annualized rate of 479,000 units, which is not only considerably less than the 575,000 units that had been forecasted, on average, by economists surveyed by Briefing.com, but also the slowest rate in almost two years. Building permits for February were also discouraging. They fell 8.2% from the prior month to an annualized rate of 517,000, which is less than the 573,000 that had been broadly expected.

Excluding food and energy, producer prices for February increased by 0.2%, as had been expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. However, the headline PPI number spiked 1.6%, which is far more than the 0.6% that had been broadly expected. DJ30 -242.12 NASDAQ -50.51 NQ100 -2.5% R2K -1.2% SP400 -1.0% SP500 -24.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 730/2.58 bln/1899 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 703/1.46 bln/2323

3:40 pm : Events in Japan continued to dominate the focus of the market, which included commodities. Headlines about the situation in Japan were around all day and those created volatility, especially in crude oil. April crude oil finished higher by 0.8% to $97.98 per barrel. Commentary from the EU Energy Chief, apparently taken out of context, pushed crude oil back toward the flat line. An AP story, however, reported that Tokyo Electric Power has almost completed a new power line that could restore electricity to the complex and solve the crisis that has threatened a meltdown. This report sent crude oil back toward the $99 area, where it remains in electronic trade. April natural gas finished near the unchanged mark at $3.94 per MMBtu.

April gold finished higher by +0.3% to $1396.10 per ounce, while May silver gained 0.6% to end at $34.47 per ounce. Both metals gave back most gains from earlier in the session after spending the afternoon session pulling back. DJ30 -215.78 NASDAQ -39.87 SP500 -20.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 966/2.1 bln/1625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 925/1.1 bln/2057

3:00 pm : For the third straight session stocks were knocked down dramatically, but have successfully trimmed their losses in afternoon trade. Although stocks have repeatedly worked their way up from session lows, the market continues to end the day lower than where it started. In fact, the stock market is on pace for its seventh loss in nine sessions. The intraday trend is largely owed to a buy-the-dip philosopy that has governed trade for the past several weeks.DJ30 -168.40 NASDAQ -30.86 SP500 -16.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 864/1.94 bln/1725 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 866/940 mln/2118

2:30 pm : Another aggressive round of selling recently took the S&P 500 all the way down to the 1249 line. The drop coincided with the yen's spike to a new multi-year high of about 79.75 yen per dollar. Many pundits attribute the yen's climb in recent sessions to an unwind in the carry trade.

Selling pressure continues to stoke the Volatility Index, which is now up more than 25% to its highest level since July.

The recent selling frenzy has settled down so that stocks have started to lift up from the lows recently set. DJ30 -210.71 NASDAQ -39.96 SP500 -22.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 697/1.78 bln/1891 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 645/830 mln/2336

2:00 pm : Stocks have fallen another leg lower so that the S&P 500 now sits beneath the depths probed in the prior session at a new two-month low.

Underlying share volume has been robust this session. There are still two full hours before the toll of the closing bell and more than 700 million shares have already traded hands on the New York Stock Exchange. The increase in activity comes as investors juggle their portfolios amid ongoing headline risk related to Japan's nuclear facilities and the political and social tumult in the Middle East and North Africa. DJ30 -200.23 NASDAQ -40.22 SP500 -20.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 843/1.52 bln/1718 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 824/713 mln/2130

1:30 pm : The dollar has attracted additional buying interest in recent trade. It is now up approximately 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Although the greenback is currently up against a collection of competing currencies, it was recently down against Japan's yen to 80.15 yen per dollar, which marked the dollar's lowest level against the yen since 1995.DJ30 -180.59 NASDAQ -35.06 SP500 -18.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 924/1.40 bln/1608 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 932/650 mln/2004

1:05 pm : Ongoing headline risk continues to weigh on stocks and has prompted market participants to maintain a protective posture. Data today has only supported their defensiveness.

The overall mood among morning participants was weakened by reports of increased violence and instability surrounding the social and political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. That news helped prop up oil prices, which are currently up 1.3% to $98.45 per barrel. The advance has come in the face of a greater-than-expected build in weekly inventories.

Data disappointed this morning. Housing starts for February made a surprisingly dramatic drop of more than 20% to an annualized rate of 479,000, which is the slowest pace in almost two years. Building permits for February fell 8.2% in an unexpected drop.

As for Producer prices, the headline PPI number for February increased by 1.6% for its sharpest spike since June 2009, but core producer prices increased by a much more tame 0.2%, which matched the Briefing.com consensus.

Uninspiring headlines in the early going left stocks without any form of real leadership for the first hour of trade. In turn, there was little support for stocks when an EU energy official expressed his concern for the possibility of catastrophic events stemming from the many explosions at Japan's nuclear facilities. Stocks fell sharply amid aggressive selling pressure, but began to rebound when it was learned that the comments were not based on any special knowledge and were reflective of comments the official had already made.

Despite the clarification, stocks remain under the control of sellers, who redoubled their efforts shortly after noon ET to take the stock market to within a point of its prior session low. Stocks have since eased up from that mark, but weakness remains widespread. DJ30 -143.61 NASDAQ -25.38 SP500 -13.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 939/1.30 bln/1583 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 938/600 mln/1979

12:30 pm : Sellers recently redoubled their efforts to drop the S&P 500 to a fresh session low that was only about a point above the prior session's lowest levels. Stocks have since made a modest up from that mark, but widespread weakness remains.DJ30 -149.93 NASDAQ -29.41 SP500 -14.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 782/1.17 bln/1710 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 838/525 mln/2054

12:00 pm : Stocks are still stuck in the red with sizable losses. Tech-related issues are under the most pressure. As such, IBM (IBM 153.64, -5.38) and Apple (AAPL 334.29, -1.14) are among this session's worst performers. Large-cap tech issues are also seeing some of the strongest trading volume.

As for advancing issues, they are still outnumbered by a considerable margin. Still, energy plays Peabody Energy (BTU 68.07, +2.99) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK 34.73, +1.12) have attracted a strong bid; they are this session's top performers by percent gained. DJ30 -143.01 NASDAQ -33.38 SP500 -14.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 904/967 mln/1569 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1045/446 mln/1816

11:30 am : The stock market has rebounded from its recent drop, but it still has a ways to go before it will be back at the session highs set less than an hour ago. The stock market's recent drop was widely attributed to stirring comments about potential for catastrophic events by an EU energy official, but follow-up reports have indicated that those comments are similar to some already made the day before.

Nonetheless, recent swings in the stock market have stoked volatility so that the Volatility Index, often euphemistically dubbed the Fear Gauge, is now up almost 9%. That takes the VIX to its highest level since August. DJ30 -99.53 NASDAQ -21.71 SP500 -9.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1023/810 mln/1386 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1186/370 mln/1666

11:00 am : A sudden flurry of selling pressure has sent stocks down sharply. Pressure behind the move is becoming increasingly aggressive.

The move lower coincides with headlines about comments from an EU energy official regarding the possibility of catastrophic events. It also comes after the S&P 500 failed to extend its morning climb above 1281, which is within striking distance of where stocks closed the prior session.

Weakness in stocks has sent participants running into Treasuries. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note dropped beneath yesterday's lows to fresh three-month lows. DJ30 -140.55 NASDAQ -23.05 SP500 -12.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1314/545 mln/1034 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1575/230 mln/1202

10:35 am : Despite strength in the dollar index, most commodities are trading higher this morning. In the CRB Index, 15 out of its 19 components are higher. The laggards include nickel -4.3%, aluminum -2.6%, orange juice -0.9% and live cattle -0.5%.

April crude oil has been steadily higher during this morning's session and just put in new session highs of $99.35 per barrel at the top of the hour. Strength is largely being driven by new events in the Middle East as the situation in Bahrain has taken a turn for the worse. Ahead of inventory data, crude remained just below that level. Following the data, which showed a build of 1745K versus consensus which called for a build of 1300K, crude traded put in new session highs of $99.59 and is now up 2.4% at $99.52 per barrel.

April natural gas has been higher all session and is currently up 1.3% at $4.00 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are also higher despite strength in the dollar index. April gold is up 0.8% at $1403.80 per ounce, while May silver is 2.3% higher at $34.89 per ounce.

Grains are higher as losses yesterday, which were largely due to lower demand from Japan due to their crisis, was overdone. Wheat +2.9%, soybeans +2.1% and corn +1.7%.DJ30 -56.96 NASDAQ -2.00 SP500 -3.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1119/391.2 mln/1160 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1304/169.9 mln/1438

10:00 am : Stocks have worked their way up from opening lows, but trade in the early going remains choppy.

Materials stocks helped lead the broader market up from its low in the prior session by rallying from a loss of more than 3% to end the session with a loss of less than 0.2%. The materials sector is showing relative strength again today as it pokes into positive territory. Energy stocks have also caught a bid in recent trade so that the sector now sports a slight gain.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+0.1%), Energy (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Tech (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.6%), Financial (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.3%), Utilities (-0.2%), Industrial (-0.1%), Telecom (-0.1%)DJ30 -61.12 NASDAQ -8.12 SP500 -4.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 957/165 mln/1190 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1082/90 mln/1557

09:45 am : Sellers hit stocks at the open to send the major equity averages markedly lower. Stocks have made modest attempts to rebound from the gap down, though.

Leadership is lacking in the early going. Tech, the largest sector by market weight in the S&P 500, is down 0.8%, which makes it the worst performing sector.

General weakness among stocks has helped refresh the bid for Treasuries, but the yield on the 10-year Note is still above the three-month low of about 3.20% that was set yesterday. DJ30 -74.74 NASDAQ -11.08 SP500 -6.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 857/50 mln/1188 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 841/45 mln/1584

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.00. A lackluster start appears to be in order for today's trade, according to stock futures at least. The relatively mixed mood comes amid ongoing social and political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as continued concerns about nuclear facilites in Japan. Domestic data hasn't done anything to improve the mood of premarket participants. Housing starts for February suffered their worst month-over-month drop in more than 25 years to an annualized rate of 479,000, which is the slowest pace in almost two years. Building permits for February fell 8.2% in a weak follow-up to a 10.2% drop in January. Overall producer prices for February increased 1.6% in their sharpest spike since June 2009, but core producer prices increased an in-line 0.2%. Oil prices are down from their early morning highs, but they are still up 1.2% to $98.35 per barrel in early pit trade. Weekly inventory data are due at 10:30 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.30. Stock futures have yet to return to recent morning highs. Action has improved a bit in Europe, where Germany's DAX is now up 0.3%. Infineon Tech and Muenchener Rue have offered leadership. SAP AG and Allianz (AZ) continue to undermine their efforts, though. France's CAC is currently off by 0.5%. Financial outfits BNP Paribas and Societe Generale have been the heaviest drags on trade. Total (TOT) continues to come under pressure, too. Danone and Pernod-Ricard have offered some support. Banking plays HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS) have dragged Britain's FTSE to a 0.5% loss. Natural resource plays BP Plc (BP) and Rio Tinto (RTP) have helped limit broad market losses, though. There hasn't been much market moving data released from Europe, but Moody's did announce a two-notch downgrade to Portugal's debt, which is now ranked A3. Spain's debt was just downgraded last week.

Action in Asia improved considerably from the prior session, but concerns related to Japan's nuclear facilities continue. Japan's Nikkei rallied to a 5.7% gain after it suffered a 10.6% loss in the prior session. Softbank, Kyocera (KYO), Fast Retailing, and KDDI Corp led the advance. Only a few names failed to advance; Secom Co., Japan Steel, and Tokyo Electric were atop that short list. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite advanced 1.2%. China Shenhua, Industrial & Commercial Bank, and Aluminum Corp were leaders. Sinovel Wind was a notable laggard. Hong Kong's Hang Seng traded with much more modest strength; it gained just 0.1%. Industrial & Commercial Bank was a leading issue, but HSBC offset its strength. PetroChina (PTR) was also a source of support while China Mobile moved markedly lower.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.80. Stock futures recently made a move to their best levels of the past couple of hours, but they have pulled back in the wake of the latest data release. Housing starts for February dropped 22.5% month over month to an annualized rate of 479,000 units, which is a surprise since a rate of 575,000 units that had been forecasted, on average, by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Building permits for February fell 8.2% from the prior month to an annualized rate of 517,000, which is less than the 573,000 estimated by economists polled by Briefing.com. Separately, the February Producer Price Index for February increased 1.6% month over month. It had been broadly expected to increase by just 0.6%. Excluding food and energy, producer prices increased by a much more tepid 0.2% month over month, as had been generally expected. As for the fourth quarter current account deficit, it was reported at $113.3 billion. The third quarter deficit was revised downward to $125.5 billion.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.80. Stocks trimmed losses for the second straight session yesterday, but futures point to another lower start for today's trade. Troubles at Japan's nuclear facilties continue, but the country's Nikkei rallied 5.7% after a 10.6% drop in the prior session. Asia's other major averages saw more moderate buying interest. Europe's major bourses are mostly lower once again. After a downgrade of Spain's debt last week, analysts at Moody's have taken Portugal's rating down to A3 from A1 and assigned a negative outlook. Corporate news has been light this morning, but a healthy dose of data is on its way. The bottom of the hour brings the latest in housing starts, building permits, and producer prices. The fourth quarter current account balance is also due at 8:30 AM ET. Later this morning (10:30 AM ET), weekly oil inventory data will be posted. Crude oil futures prices are presently up 1.9% to $99 per barrel ahead of pit trade.

06:45 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50.

06:45 am : Nikkei...9093.72...+488.60...+5.70%. Hang Seng...22700.88...+22.60...+0.10%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5650.94...-44.30...-0.80%. DAX...6630.07...-17.60...-0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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