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 Post subject: March 8th Tuesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +6.70
PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 6:00 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
I had a big profitable trading day yesterday and decided to take it easy today even though there was a strong directional up movement in the markets in the morning trading session. Also, I'll be doing fewer trades on Wednesday and Thursday due to personal time with my kids that's on a week long school break (no classes). If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +6.70 points or $670.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=776.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=965

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Surge As Banks Lead Gains, Oil Drops
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
March 8, 2011: 4:20 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed broadly higher Tuesday, led by a strong performance in the financial sector.

Easing oil prices lent further support. Crude prices retreated following reports that Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi is working to step down and exit the country safely.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) advanced 124 points, or 1%, to close at 12,214; the S&P 500 (SPX) added 11.7 points, or 0.9%, to 1,321.80; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 20 points, or 0.7%, to 2,766.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) sparked a rally in financial shares after CEO Brian Moynihan issued a rosy multi-year outlook at the bank's first shareholder meeting in four years. Moynihan also said the banking giant plans to increase its buyback program and may raise its dividend.

Shares of Bank of America jumped 5%; American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) rose 3.5%; and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, Fortune 500) rose 2.7%. The jump in BofA shares is a change of pace for the Charlotte N.C.-based bank, which has seen its stock price fall 12% from a year ago despite the S&P 500 being up 16%.

Shares of other retail banks were also higher, with SunTrust (STI, Fortune 500), USBancorp (USB, Fortune 500) and Hutchington Bancshares (HBAN) each rising 3% or more.

"The whole financial sector was way oversold, so this move could be just a technical bounce," said David Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams. "There's still a ton of risk in the financials and BofA still has the mortgage processing problems."
0:00 /03:22Invest in toothpaste and toilet paper

Oil prices: Investors continue to monitor developments in Libya and the civil war's effect on energy prices. Oil futures lost 53 cents or 0.5%, to $104.91 a barrel Tuesday. The retreat came a day after prices spiked to almost $107.

Shares of major oil drilling and refining names also fell with Chesapeake Energy (CHK, Fortune 500) falling 2%, ConocoPhilips (COP, Fortune 500) dropping 1% andTesoro (TSO, Fortune 500) shares falling 4%.

Gold also eased from the prior session's highs, with prices closing down $7.30 to $1,427.20 an ounce. Gold settled at a record high of $1,434.50 an ounce Monday, as investors sought perceived safety in the precious metal.

Investors have been focusing on geopolitical developments and oil prices across North Africa and the Middle East. Traders are worried that spreading unrest will keep commodities at these elevated levels and will undermine the economic recovery.

"When you throw together high oil with increases in cotton, soy and food, you have a nasty combination that will impact earnings," Rovelli said. "The whole key is how long commodities stay up there. If they don't start to decline, it's going to be a burden on stocks."
Oil and gold: Rally won't last

Over the long term, however, analysts surveyed by CNNMoney agree that the oil and gold volatility will fade as the crisis in Libya abates.

In the meantime, Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist with Northern Trust, said investors should remain overweight the materials and energy sectors.

"The situation in North Africa and the Mid East is a wild card but it remains a situation that you don't want to disrupt your portfolio for," McDonald said. "Stick with companies with solid balance sheets who are positioned for strong economic growth."

Companies: Urban Outfitters (URBN) shares plunged 17% after the retailer reported a profit late Monday that widely missed forecasts, saying its margins were hit by increased markdowns.
0:00 /01:05Urban Outfitters falls out of fashion

Shares of Sprint Nextel (S, Fortune 500) jumped 5%, on reports that the company was in early negotiations with Germany's Deutsche Telekom to sell Deutsche's T-Mobile business to Sprint.

Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) began rolling out its new logo Tuesday, as the coffee company celebrates its 40th anniversary this week. Shares rose 1.2%.

Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) is considering dropping the Smith Barney name from its brokerage business, according to sources cited in the Wall Street Journal. Shares gained 1.7%.

Economy: There were no major reports on Tuesday's calendar.

World markets: European stocks closed mostly flat. Britain's FTSE 100 rose less than 0.1%, and the DAX in Germany ticked up 0.1%, while France's CAC 40 added 0.6%.

Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite ticked up 0.1%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong jumped 1.7%, and Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.2%.

Currencies: The dollar gained against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, with the yield rising to 3.55%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : The major equity averages scored strong gains as oil prices failed to fight off selling efforts and financials offered leadership.

Stocks stumbled in the early going as oil prices rallied back from overnight selling pressure. Oil had been hit by news reports that OPEC would increase production. Although later reports indicated that the organization has no plans for an extraordinary meeting, oil still failed to sustain its move and spent the rest of the day oscillating in negative territory. It closed with a 0.4% loss near $105 per barrel.

Financials showed strength from the onset of trade. Even as the broader market made an early dip into negative territory the sector traded higher. Once oil proved unable to sustain a push into positive territory financials attracted additional buying interest. Support for a wide range of financial issues helped drive the sector to a 2.2% gain. Specialized finance (-0.5%) failed to fined favor, though.

Even more impressive, airline stocks soared to a 4.8% gain. That made for the strongest single-session move by the Amex Airline Index in more than four months. The Airline Index is still down almost 6% year to date though.

Of the major sectors, only energy finished in the red. The sector's 0.6% loss was largely the result of weakness in oil and gas refiners, which dropped 2.4%.

There were no economic releases today and earnings announcements were without any real broad market concern. That may have kept some on the sidelines, but total share volume was still close to 1 billion on the NYSE.

The decidedly positive bias among afternoon traders helped the S&P 500 and the Dow undo yesterday's loss. However, relatively lackluster performances by a few large-cap tech issues hampered the Nasdaq today, so it is still down a bit for the week.

While Wall Street had a strong session, action abroad was a bit mixed. Germany's DAX and Britain's FTSE both finished flat, but France's CAC climbed to a 0.6% gain. The Bank of France kept its first quarter GDP forecast unchanged at 0.8% growth. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei and China's Shanghai Composite closed with minor gains, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng surged 1.7% as buyers there were encouraged by news that some banks will have their reserve requirements eased.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+2.2%), Telecom (+1.6%), Industrials (+1.5%), Utilities (+1.0%), Materials (+1.0%), Consumer Staples (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.7%), Tech (+0.6%)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-0.6%)DJ30 +124.35 NASDAQ +20.14 NQ100 +0.4% R2K +1.5% SP400 +1.2% SP500 +11.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1898/1.85 bln/745 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2243/987 mln/717

3:30 pm : Another mixed session for commodities, with livestock (+1.9%) and softs (+1.3%) the only advancing sectors. Lean hogs added 2.4% to close at $1.01925 per pound.

April crude oil shed 0.4% to close at $105.02 per barrel. A rumor that leaders of the rebel party are considering a conditional offer from Muammar Gadhafi to step down, coupled with talk from OPEC that they were considering an output hike, weighed on crude today. Despite later headlines that conflicted with both of the earlier reports, crude oil finished the day modestly lower. April natural gas shed 1.4% to close at $3.87 per MMBtu.

A rebound in the dollar and a pullback in crude oil caused for April gold to finish lower by 0.4% to $1427.20 per ounce and May silver to end down 0.4% to $36.66 per ounce. DJ30 +141.80 NASDAQ +23.94 SP500 +13.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1905/1.5 bln/714 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2300/676.4 mln/694

3:00 pm : Stocks have recovered from a recent slip so that the S&P 500 is now back near its session high. Financials continue to provide leadership as they sport a gain in excess of 2%.

Within the 81-member financial sector, only IntercontinentalExchange (ICE 131.76, -2.96), Assurant (AIZ 38.50, -0.55), and NYSE Euronext (NYX 35.15, -0.44) are in the red. Bank of America (BAC 14.64, +0.61) is still a primary leader in the financial space. DJ30 +148.12 NASDAQ +24.65 SP500 +13.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1842/1.34 bln/781 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2252/626 mln/725

2:30 pm : Stocks recently slipped out of their afternoon trading range, but they have stabilized so that the S&P 500 is sitting on the 1320 line. Strength remains broad based in that advancing issues in the broad market outnumber decliners by more than 5-to-1.

Semiconductor stocks are back in the red. The group dove sharply in the prior session then encountered some renewed pressure this morning before a broader market bounce took semiconductor issues into higher ground. They have since turned downward so that they trade with a 0.2% loss. DJ30 +125.60 NASDAQ +18.18 SP500 +10.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1919/1.23 bln/694 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2291/583 mln/679

2:00 pm : Stocks spent the past two hours stuck in a narrow range, but a sudden flurry of selling has started to take the major averages down from that range. There is no clear catalyst to account for the slip.

Oil prices aren't quite at afternoon highs, but they continue to oscillate in negative territory. The commodity is currently down a relatively tame 0.4% at $105 per barrel. Lingering weakness in oil prices continues to keep the energy sector in the red, where it trades with a 0.5% loss. DJ30 +129.15 NASDAQ +22.31 SP500 +12.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1958/1.14 bln/657 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2322/545 mln/632

1:30 pm : Treasuries haven't done much since the release of results from the latest auction of 3-year Notes. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.22 for dollar demand of $103.0 billion. The indirect bidder participation rate came in at 34.4%. For comparison, the prior auction produced a bid-to-cover of 3.01, dollar demand of $96.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 27.6%. An average of the past five auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.04, dollar demand of $97.2 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 33.5%.DJ30 +139.90 NASDAQ +27.51 SP500 +13.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1954/1.06 bln/640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2297/509 mln/647

1:00 pm : The broad market is up with a strong gain as oil prices oscillate in negative territory and financials offer leadership.

Stocks stumbled in the first few minutes of trade as participants reacted negatively to a rebound by crude oil prices. Oil prices had been as low as $103.33 per barrel in response to overnight news that OPEC would increase production, but oil prices were able to bounce back to a modest gain by the open of pit trade. Oil's inability to hold that move has rekindled some selling, which has led to volatility in the commodity. Oil prices are currently down 0.5% at $104.90 per barrel.

Although oil is off of its low, stocks have responded positively to its dip today. That has helped the broad market recover from its slide yesterday.

Financials have been especially strong this session. The sector is up 2.0% as banking issues and diversified financial services stocks spike. Bank of America (BAC 14.60, +0.57) has been a top performer in its space; the company is hosting an Investor Day Conference today.

Of the major sectors, only energy has failed to find higher ground. The sector's 0.6% loss comes as oil and gas equipment plays, exploration names, and drillers turn downward in response oil's decline.

Apparel and accessories retailer Urban Outfitters (URBN 32.18, -5.81) has also failed to take part in this session's broad market bounce. The stock is at a multi-month low following news of an earnings miss. In contrast, Hot Topic (HOTT 5.51, +0.10) has overcome a weak start that stemmed from an earnings miss of its own. DJ30 +144.14 NASDAQ +27.26 SP500 +13.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1966/981 mln/629 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2308/477 mln/626

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 is within reach of its prior session high, but it has had a little bit of trouble pushing past the 1325 line. The Dow has successfully erased all of its loss from the prior session and now trades at a two-day high. As for the Nasdaq Composite, it suffered an outsized loss yesterday, so it still ha a ways to go before it can turn positive for this week.

Strength among stocks this session has put pressure on Treasuries. Still, losses in that space are relatively modest as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note trades at 3.54%. Results from an auction of 3-year Notes are due at the top of the hour. DJ30 +145.09 NASDAQ +28.40 SP500 +13.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1957/892 mln/606 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2322/437 mln/600

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to climb. As such, the major equity averages are now all up in excess of 1%. That's still not enough to fully offset the losses suffered in the prior session, though.

The stock market's latest push coincides with renewed selling in oil contracts. Oil is now down to $104.15 per barrel with a 1.2% loss.

Volatility is down markedly amid the improved tone of trade. Specifically, the Volatility Index has shed 6% in the wake of its 8% climb in the prior session. DJ30 +152.99 NASDAQ +28.66 SP500 +14.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1892/783 mln/645 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2238/385 mln/658

11:30 am : Stocks just moved another leg higher. That puts all three major equity averages at their best levels of the day.

The upward push has come in the face of a rebound by oil prices, which have pared losses so that they are down a relatively tame 0.5% at $104.90 per barrel.

Although oil prices are paring losses, their general weakness this session has hurt energy stocks. The sector is down 0.4%, which makes it the only major sector that has failed to find higher ground.

Meanwhile, financials remain comfortably out in front of the broader market. The sector is now up 2.3%. DJ30 +126.21 NASDAQ +25.36 SP500 +12.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1800/669 mln/698 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2131/321 mln/722

11:00 am : The Nasdaq had lagged both the Dow and S&P 500 in the early going, but it has since caught up with counterparts so that all three of the major headline indices sport strong gains. Large-cap tech issues, which had been weak at the onset of trade, are now in strong shape. As such, Oracle (ORCL 32.55, +0.45), Google (GOOG 595.34, +3.68), and Microsoft (MSFT 25.86, +0.14) are leaders.

The recent broad market bounce and pullback in oil prices have helped airline socks ascend to a 3.6% gain, as measured by the Amex Airline Index. In a similar vein, the Dow Jones Transports Index is up 2.0%. DJ30 +73.61 NASDAQ +14.78 SP500 +7.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1762/511 mln/680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2068/250 mln/744

10:35 am : Overnight news that OPEC has plans for production increases sent oil down to $103.33 per barrel, but the commodity rebounded so that it traded with a narrow gain in the first few minutes of pit trade. Even though CNBC reported that OPEC currently has no plans for an extraordinary meeting, a recent spell of selling knocked oil prices down to about $104 per barrel. The commodity has since recovered to $104.50 per barrel so that its loss is now 0.9%.

Natural gas prices have been under pressure all morning. The energy component is currently down 1.8% to about $3.86 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are mixed after extending their recent climb in the prior session. Specifically, gold prices are down 0.3% to $1430.10 per ounce while silver is up 0.3% to $35.95 per ounce.

Generally lackluster action among commodities has the CRB Commodity Index down 0.3%. It advanced for seven straight sessions before a flat finish yesterday. DJ30 +73.38 NASDAQ +17.04 SP500 +7.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1679/400 mln/716 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2027/204 mln/764

10:00 am : Financial stocks have run ahead to a collective 1.2% gain. Bank of America (BAC 14.22, +0.19) has been a leader in the move, but regional plays Regions Financial (RF 7.48, +0.07) and PNC Financial (PNC 61.67, +0.97) have complemented the effort.

Leadership from the financial sector has helped lift the broader market out of negative territory. Recent pressure against oil prices has also been a catalyst for broad market buying. DJ30 +29.67 NASDAQ +0.93 SP500 +2.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1039/138 mln/1171 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1333/88 mln/1290

09:45 am : As of the first few minutes of trade, the Nasdaq is underperforming its counterparts for the second straight session. Its weakness stems largely from losses among large-cap tech issues as well as renewed selling interest against semiconductor stocks (-0.8%).

Energy stocks have been hit with some of the stiffest selling pressure, though. The sector is already down 1.1%. Pressure therein is largely the result of a recent downturn in oil prices, which are now at $104 per barrel with a 1.3% loss.

Financials are showing strength, however. The sector is up to an enviable 0.6% gain as bank stocks and diversified financial services plays attract bidders. DJ30 -11.05 NASDAQ -12.08 SP500 -2.95

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.10. Stock futures are mixed ahead of the opening bell. The muddled action comes amid a rebound by oil prices, which are now narrowly positive at $105.50 per barrel after they had been down near $103 per barrel in response to overnight reports that OPEC has plans to increase production. CNBC has since reported that OPEC currently has no plans for an extraordinary meeting. Although China has opted to ease reserve requirements at certain banks, the news hasn't been particularly motivating to domestic traders. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied in response to the news, however. Varied gains in Asia and broad losses in Europe have further muddled this morning's backdrop. Outside of equities, the dollar has caught a strong bid in recent trade; it is now up 0.5% against a basket of competing currencies. Treasuries are currently stuck in lackluster trade ahead of results from an auction of 3-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET. There are no economic items on tap for today.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.10. Oil prices recently turned positive, but they have since slipped back to a 0.1% loss at $105.35 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Prices had been down near $103 per barrel in overnight trade. Weakness was mostly underpinned by reports that OPEC has plans to increase production, but CNBC recently reported that the organization currently has no plans for an extraordinary meeting. Natural gas prices are under pressure, though; the energy component was last quoted at $3.88 per MMBtu with a 1.1% loss. As for precious metals, gold prices are down fractionally to $1443.20 per ounce while silver is up an impressive 0.7% to $36.10 per ounce. Silver has yet to return to the 30-year high of $36.73 per ounce that it set yesterday.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.60. Germany's DAX is now down 1.0% after it had started its session in positive territory. BASF and SAP have been the heaviest drags, but shares of Volkswagen are showing strength following an analyst upgrade from UBS. France's CAC has also failed to hold an opening gain. It is now down 0.4%. Total (TOT) has weighed heavily on action after it had offered leadership in the prior session. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is weak for the third straight session. During that time the stock has cumulatively lost 2.8% so that shares are now back below their 50-day moving average. In a display of strength, Axa (AXA) has made a strong move higher in the latest round of trade. Britain's FTSE is off by 0.5% as its declining issues outnumber its advancers by 3-to-1. Vodafone (VOD) and HSBC (HBC) have been sources of strength, but their efforts have been more than offset by weakness in natural resouce plays like Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and BP Plc (BP).

Even though its decliners edged out its advancing issues, Japan's Nikkei mustered a 0.2% gain in its latest round of trade. That made for a rather tepid recovery effort from the 1.8% dive that was suffered in the prior session. Fast Retailing was a leader in the effort. Tokyo Electron was a laggard. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite gained just 0.1% amid strength in China Shenhua and Inner Mong Bao. China Petroleum (SNP) and PetroChina (PTR) were a couple of key sources of weakness. Action in China closed before any real reaction could be made to news that regulators have decided to lift reserve requirement restrictions on certain banks. However, that news helped shares in Hong Kong's Hang Seng climb to a collective gain of 1.7%. HSBC and China Construction Bank were primary leaders. China Mobile and Tencent Holdings also staged strong gains. Not a single stock in the 45-member Index suffered a loss.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.60. Stock futures have drifted off of overnight highs so that they now trade near the neutral line. Dwindling support comes as oil prices work their way up from overnight lows, which were set near $103 per barrel amid reports that OPEC may increase oil production. Oil prices are now near $105 per barrel with a 0.5% loss. A downturn by Europe's major bourses has also weakened the tone of premarket trade. Each is now in the red after trade had opened in higher ground. Asia's major averages made advances overnight, though. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was especially strong as it swung to a 1.7% gain following news that China has lifted punitive reserves on certain banks. There are no meaningful items on today's economic calendar and earnings announcements have limited to only a handful of names, including Hot Topic (HOTT) and Urban Outfitters (URBN). Both came short of the consensus earnings estimate, but shares of URBN are down more than 12% ahead of the open. In contrast, Brown-Forman (BF.B) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) each exceeded earnings expectations and issued strong guidance.

06:42 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00.

06:42 am : Nikkei...10525.19...+20.20...+0.20%. Hang Seng...23711.70...+398.50...+1.70%.

06:42 am : FTSE...5978.12...+4.30...+0.10%. DAX...7181.90...+20.00...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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