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 Post subject: March 7th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +45.80
PostPosted: Mon Mar 07, 2011 10:20 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
The third trade of the day as a short position around 1037am est was a poor entry via the fact that I enter about 5mins after the re-entry signal. However, I though I chased it via about 1 points...it had enough volatility to traverse into my best trade of the year and my last contracted exited in that trade was a WRB pt4 target. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +45.80 points or $4580.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=774.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=965

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Sink On Oil Fears
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter
March 7, 2011: 4:36 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Surging oil prices continued to rain on the stock market's parade at the start of the week. Add a lagging tech sector and Greece's latest debt woes to the mix, and Monday was a downer to say the least.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) sank 80 points, or 0.7%; the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 11 points, or 0.8%; and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) shed 40 points, or 1.4%.

"It's pretty clear that we're dealing with international and Middle East tensions here," said Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede. "The reality is, oil is getting into the price range now where people are going to start questioning its impact on the broader economy."

Investors are keeping a close eye on commodities, after crude oil rose to more than $106 a barrel early Monday on continued tensions in Libya. Oil finished the day at about $105.44, an increase of more than a dollar.

"The stock market wants to bask in the recent slew of good economic data, but its Achilles' heel is this oil market right now," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with PFG Best. "This is really a situation that we're going to have to monitor every day."
Speculators double down

Meanwhile, gold set a new intraday record in early trading, rising to $1,445 an ounce, as investors sought safety in the precious metal. It pared back those gains later in the day though, settling at $1,434.50 an ounce on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

U.S. stocks managed to claw out gains last week, despite a sharp sell-off on Friday.

* Video - Big oil stocks spike on crude surge

Companies: Tech stocks dragged on the entire market after Wells Fargo downgraded the semiconductor sector Monday. Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) fell 1.6% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped 2.7%.

Western Digital's (WDC, Fortune 500) stock climbed 15.6%, after the company agreed to acquire Hitachi's (HIT) hard disk drive business. The stock and cash transaction is valued at $4.3 billion.

Western Digital's top rival, Seagate Technology (STX), rose 9% on the news.

Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) stock rose 1.5%, after Morgan Stanley analysts upgraded the company's price target and CEO Howard Schultz told the Wall Street Journal the coffee company is planning several acquisitions over the next 12 to 18 months to bolster its consumer products division.

Starbucks is kicking off a campaign celebrating its 40th anniversary this week, starting with newspaper articles Monday and rolling out with television ads and in-store promotions Tuesday.

World markets: Analysts at Moody's slashed Greece's credit rating three notches Monday to B1.

"The country's very large debt burden and the significant implementation risks in its structural reform package both skew risks to the downside," Moody's wrote in its report.

European stocks finished lower. Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.3%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.7% and the DAX in Germany eased 0.2%.

* Video - The U.S.'s tortoise vs. hare problem

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite jumped 1.8%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slid 0.4% and Japan's Nikkei tumbled 1.8%.

Economy: Consumer credit increased by $5 billion in January, according to a report by the Federal Reserve released Monday afternoon. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected consumer credit to have increased by $3.3 billion in January.
Dollar doom bets hit new high

Currencies: The dollar gained against the euro and the British pound, but fell versus the Japanese yen.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.50% from 3.55% late Friday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : The Nasdaq Composite led its counterparts lower as participants dumped semiconductor stocks and other tech related issues. However, the ability of the S&P 500 to hold steady above last week's lows helped pull the Nasdaq back above its 50-day moving average.

The major U.S. averages logged losses last Friday, but they all made a strong upward push in the final minutes of that session. That and a pullback by oil prices from a two-year high of almost $107 per barrel at the start of pit trade helped stocks start the new week on a positive note. It didn't take long for sellers to step in, though.

At first, sellers were focused on tech stocks. Their effort took the Nasdaq down to a 2.0% loss so that it traded below its 50-day moving average once again. As selling spread, the broader S&P 500 flirted with last week's low, but its ability to hold steady above that mark caused selling pressure to ease a bit so that it could slowly pare its loss. That helped lift the tech-rich Nasdaq back above the key trend line.

Semiconductor stocks still finished with a collective loss of 2.7%, but Ciena (CIEN 25.98, -2.83) suffered a near 10% loss after it issued disappointing guidance. Its upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter was completely ignored.

Consumer credit data made up the only item on the economic calendar, but the figures were of little consequence to the broader market. Consumer credit for January increased by $5.0 billion, which is greater than the $3.3 billion increase that had been expected among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. December's consumer credit was revised downward to reflect an increase of about $4.1 billion.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+0.4%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-1.8%), Tech (-1.4%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.0%), Health Care (-0.9%), Industrials (-0.8%), Financial (-0.7%), Energy (-0.7%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%), Telecom (-0.1%)DJ30 -79.85 NASDAQ -39.04 NQ100 -1.4% R2K -1.5% SP400 -1.3% SP500 -11.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 610/2.19 bln/2050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 702/1.04 bln/2315

3:40 pm : Commodities were mixed today, with grains (-2.2%), livestock (-0.9%), and industrials (-0.8%) all closing in negative territory, while precious metals (+1.2%), softs (+1.1%), and energy (+0.4%) all finished with gains.

April crude oil closed higher by 0.9% to $105.44 per barrel, well below its overnight highs at $106.95 per barrel, a fresh ~2.5 year high. There was a report that Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi was negotiating with the rebels to his departure and that sent crude oil back toward the flat line. April natural gas rallied for 2.5% to end at $3.93 per MMBtu, its best levels in a week.

The pull back in crude oil and a rebound in the dollar index weighed on April gold, which closed higher by 0.5% to $1434.50 per ounce, and May silver, which closed up 1.9% to $35.87 per ounce. In early session trade, gold prices traded to a new all-time high at $1445.70 per ounce, while silver put in fresh 30 yr highs at $36.70 per ounce. DJ30 -47.49 NASDAQ -32.47 SP500 -7.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 597/1.7 bln/2032 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 731/710.6 mln/2218

3:00 pm : Stocks are slowly working their ways off of session lows, but they are still down sharply for the day.

The latest consumer credit data was just posted. According to that data, consumer credit increased by $5.0 billion in January. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, that consumer credit would increase by $3.3 billion. Data for December was downwardly revised to reflect an increase of about $4.1 billion, not the $6.6 billion increase that had been reported initially.

Neither the stockmarket, bond market, the dollar has reacted to the consumer credit numbers. DJ30 -99.07 NASDAQ -46.49 SP500 -12.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 542/1.59 bln/2105 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 633/637 mln/2315

2:30 pm : Stock may have opened on a mildly firmer note as they rode Friday's late session bounce and reacted to oil's pullback from its morning high, but that early momentum proved short lived as the major averges started to roll over within after the first 30 minutes of action.

Steady pressure has left the S&P 500 down markedly, but support has kept it from penetrating last week's low around 1302. Technical traders point out that it will take a sustained push back through 1308 and the 1312-1313 zone to begin to neutralize the negative pattern off recent highs. Below the psychologically significant 1300 there is support in around 1297 and 1294, which align with the stock market's 50-day moving average. The lagging Nasdaq is already back below its 50 moving average; it has not closed under that average in about six months. DJ30 -94.11 NASDAQ -47.02 SP500 -12.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 529/1.48 bln/2110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 583/586 mln/2354

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 continues to trade just two points above its session low, which was set at the 1304 line. At last week's low the S&P 500 probed similar depths.

Many commodities have pulled back in recent trade, such that the CRB Commodity Index is now flat after it had been up 1% this morning. On the line is the CRB's seventh straight gain. Although many other commodities have pulled back in recent trade, natural gas prices are at session highs with a 2.6% gain at $3.91 per MMBtu. DJ30 -101.45 NASDAQ -51.85 SP500 -13.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 525/1.37 bln/2116 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 586/541 mln/2358

1:30 pm : Oil prices have pulled back a bit in recent trade, but the market has made no real reaction to the commodity's turn lower. Oil prices, though still up 0.7% for the session, now trade at $105.15 per barrel.

With stocks stuck at session lows amid steady pressure, volatility has continued to climb. The Volatility Index is now up 13% amid the widespread weakness. DJ30 -113.30 NASDAQ -57.56 SP500 -15.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 523/1.24 bln/2099 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 556/484 mln/2366

1:00 pm : Stocks opened in higher ground after oil prices pulled back from new two-year highs, but subsequent selling interest has taken stocks into the red to trade with varied losses. Tech issues have been hit particularly hard.

Although overall gains were only modest in the early going, the general tone was broadly positive. The improved mode came after oil prices pulled back from levels near $107 per barrel to start pit trade with only a modest gain. Oil prices have since reclaimed some of their gains; they are up 1.2% to $105.70 per barrel. Oil's strength is still largely underpinned by concerns about social and political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa.

The positive tone of early trade was short lived, though. As participants put pressure on tech stocks the Nasdaq drifted into negative territory. Selling therein quickly intensified so that the tech-rich Index soon led its counterparts lower. All three major averages now sit at session lows, although the Nasdaq's loss is double that of the Dow.

Selling has stoked expectations for volatility, such that the Volatility Index is up more than 10% at the moment.

The tech sector, which is the largest by market weight, is leading losses. It is down 1.9%. Semiconductor stocks, down 3.4%, are especially weak. Their descent only slowed when the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index came into contact with its 50-day moving average.

Defensive-oriented sectors telecom and utilities represent the only two sectors that are still in higher ground. Their gains currently stand at 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.

The dollar has made a modest move into higher ground amid the stock market's downturn. It is now up just 0.1% against a basket of competing currencies.

Treasuries have also turned higher, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now a few basis points below 3.50%.

Precious metals, also traditional safe havens, have also fared well this session. In fact, gold in the continuous contract hit a new record high near $1446 per ounce before pulling back to $1434 per ounce to trade with a 0.4% gain. Silver prices set a new 30-year high above $36.70 per ounce before pulling back to $36.18 per ounce to trade with a 2.4% gain. DJ30 -108.30 NASDAQ -56.01 SP500 -15.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 557/1.13 bln/2050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 644/442 mln/2259

12:30 pm : Stocks recently made a halfhearted attempt to lift off of session lows, but sellers were quick to keep them at session lows.

Telecom and utilities, both defensive oriented, have managed to put together gains, though. The two sectors are up 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively. Other defensive-oriented sectors like consumer staples (-0.2%) and health care (-1.0%) haven't been as fortunate.

Tech stocks and materials stocks represent this session's worst performing sectors. Both are down 1.7% at the moment. DJ30 -72.26 NASDAQ -48.23 SP500 -11.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 575/1.0 bln/2022 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 677/393 mln/2211

12:00 pm : Stocks have extended their downturn so that all three of the major equity averages are at fresh session lows. Pressure continues to be concentrated around tech stocks. In turn, the tech-rich Nasdaq is down with a loss that is at least double that of its counterparts.

Semiconductor stocks continue to succumb to selling pressure so that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 3.5%. The lack of support has left the Semiconductor Index to trade near its 50-day moving average. DJ30 77.73 NASDAQ -47.15 SP500 -11.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 670/872 mln/1903 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 804/341 mln/2069

11:30 am : Recent selling pressure has stoked volatility, such that the Volatility Index is up 7%. It is still shy of the levels that it reached amid last week's volatile action, though.

Semiconductor stocks have sunk deeper into the red so that the sector is now down 3.0%, but Ciena (CIEN 25.92, -2.89) is the worst performing name among tech issues. The stock's 10% slump follows the company's downside guidance, which has completely overshadowed news of better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. DJ30 -50.48 NASDAQ -35.68 SP500 -8.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 653/699 mln/1872 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 829/273 mln/1994

11:00 am : Stocks have fallen into negative territory. The Nasdaq's descent has been more steep and more rapid than either of its counterparts. Its weakness stems from pressure against tech issues, namely semiconductor stocks, which are down 2.5% after the space had been given an analyst upgrade late last week.

The broad market pullback has undercut the energy sector, which is now up just 0.3% after it had been up more than 1% at its morning high. Utilities, up 0.7%, make up the only other major sector in higher ground. Treasuries have attracted interest amid the stock market's downturn.

In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is now near the neutral line so that its yield is fractionally below 3.50%. DJ30 -35.38 NASDAQ -37.48 SP500 -7.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 821/594 mln/1657 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1029/235 mln/1748

10:30 am : Oil prices have rebounded from the slip that was made at the open of pit trade. Oil prices are back to a 1.2% gain at $105.70 per barrel, but still about $1 shy of the morning highs that they set.

Natural gas prices have swung to a 1.2% gain at $3.85 per MMBtu. They had been down in the early going.

Precious metals continue to perform well. Gold prices set a new record high of $1445.70 per ounce in the continuous contract this morning. The yellow metal has since eased back to trade with a 0.7% gain at $1438.30 per ounce. As for silver, it set a new 30-year high of $36.73 per ounce this morning; it has since eased back to $36.55 per ounce, which translates to a 3.5% gain.

Cotton futures prices are limit up again. The move takes cotton prices to $3.29 per pound.

The CRB COmmodity Index is off of its session high, but still up 0.8%. That puts it on pace for its seventh straight advance. DJ30 +26.98 NASDAQ -10.14 SP500 +0.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1127/368 mln/1280 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1391/152 mln/1321

10:00 am : Energy stocks have moved out in front of the broader market. The sector is now up 1.0% as Newfield Exploration (NFX 73.36, +1.35), Occidental Petroleum (OXY 104.88, +1.73), and Peabody Energy (BTU 70.48, +1.13) provide leadership.

Energy stocks have also provided support to overseas markets. More specifically, Total (TOT 62.24, +0.65) has helped France's CAC climb to a 0.7% gain after it had wavered earlier today. BP Plc (BP 49.07, +0.51) has been a leader in Britain's FTSE, which is presently up 0.8%. PetroChina (PTR 141.23, +1.98) led China's Shanghai Composite to an overnight gain of 1.8%.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+1.0%), Utilities (+0.9%), Materials (+0.5%), Industrials (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.3%), Financial (+0.3%), Telecom (+0.3%)
Unchanged: Tech
Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.1%)DJ30 +62.21 NASDAQ +0.65 SP500 +5.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1364/168 mln/877 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1769/86 mln/843

09:45 am : Stocks are extending an opening advance as oil prices pull back to trade below $105 per barrel after they had been up near $107 per barrel in electronic trade this morning.

Although overall gains are relatively modest, overall strength is broad as nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 sport gains. Health care, which is down fractionally, is the only major sector currently in the red. Pharmaceuticals, down 0.4%, are presently the heaviest drag on the health care space. DJ30 +55.78 NASDAQ +7.24 SP500 +5.99

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.60. Stock futures point to a solid start for the week, although ongoing social and geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa has sent oil prices another leg higher. Since the open of pit trade oil prices have pulled back a bit so that they are now up 1.3% at $105.60 per ounce; they had been near $107 per barrel at their morning high. Precious metals have also been bid higher. While precious metals are widely regarded as safe havens, neither the dollar nor Treasuries have seen buying interest this morning. Of course, that dichotomy has prompted some to postulate that U.S. is losing its position as the leader in reserve currency. With that theme in mind, China's Shanghai Composite climbed sharply overnight as participants there responded positively to a new economic outline from the country's officials. Other major markets abroad have seen mixed action.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.80. Oil prices have pulled back with the open of pit trade. The energy component now trades with a 1.4% gain at $105.90 per barrel after it had been near $107 per barrel only minutes ago. In contrast, natural gas prices are down 0.5% to $3.79 per MMBtu. Precious metals continue to perform well. As such, gold prices are up 0.9% to $1441.60 per ounce after they set a new record high of almost $1446 per ounce earlier this morning. Silver prices are up 3.1% to $36.40 per ounce, but down about $0.30 from the 30-year high set earlier this morning. Meanwhile, cotton futures prices are limit up again, so that they trade just below $2.20 per pound. Amid such broad strength in the commodity space, the CRB Commodity Index is up 1.0%, which puts it on pace for its seventh straight gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.60. Futures for the S&P 500 currently trade with a narrow lead over fair value. As for action abroad, Germany's DAX is currently up 0.4% after drifting off of its session high. BASF and Infineon Tech continue to provide it with support, but Volkswagen and Commerzbank have under mined their efforts in recent action. France's CAC overcame a lower start to put together a modest gain, but has wavered in recent trade. After a slip back into the red it now trades with a 0.1% gain. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) has been a source of weakness following news it has revised its offer for Genzyme (GENZ) for $74 per share in cash without interest and less any required holding taxes and one contingent value right. Meanwhile, energy giant Total (TOT) has shown strength amid the latest spike in oil prices. Higher oil prices have also helped BP Plc (BP), which has helped keep Britain's FTSE in positive territory with a 0.5% gain. HSBC (HBC) has also helped, but Lloyds Group (LYG) has been a laggard. In other regional news, Greece's debt has been downgraded to B1 from Ba1 by analysts at Moody's. The outlook on the country's debt remains negative, although a bailout has already been issued.

More than 90% of the names in the Nikkei ended lower in Japan's latest round of trade. Amid such widespread weakness the Nikkei suffered a 1.8% loss. News of the resignation of a Foreign Minister in response to illegal political donations further undermined sentiment. Fast Retailing, Honda Motor (HMC), Softbank, and Kyocera (KYO) led the move lower. Konami, OKI Electric, and Inpex Corp led the short list of advancing issues. In stark contrast, China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1.8% gain. Buying was largely encouraged by a positive response to the latest economic plan from the country, and comments from officials that pointed to softened inflation expectations. That news combined with higher oil prices helped PetroChina (PTR) and China Shenhua lead the upward push. Industrial & Commercial Bank complemented the effort. PetroChina was also a source of support in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which fell to a 0.4% loss. CNOOC (CEO) was also strong. However, their gains were more than offset by weakness in HSBC, Tencent Holdings, and Sun Hung Kai Properties.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.10. Broad market stock futures have slipped to the neutral line as oil prices push higher ahead of pit trade. Crude oil prices in the generic contract are now up 2.4% to a new two-year high of $106.90 per barrel amid ongoing social unrest and political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. Consumer credit data for January are due at 3:00 PM ET. No other items are on the economic calendar for today. Action abroad has made for a mixed backdrop to morning trade, although China's Shanghai Composite spiked overnight by 1.8% in response to economic policies from China's officials. Analysts at Moody's downgraded Greece's debt to B1 from Ba1 and issued a negative outlook.

06:47 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.60.

06:47 am : Nikkei...10505.02...-188.60...-1.80%. Hang Seng...23313.19...-95.70...-0.40%.

06:47 am : FTSE...6021.82...+31.40...+0.50%. DAX...7192.20...+13.30...+0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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