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 Post subject: March 2nd Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +6.20
PostPosted: Thu Mar 03, 2011 8:35 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
Today's price action was very unusual after the release of the 0815am est ADP economic report. There was a volatility spike in the Emini TF futures that took prices upwards and then suddenly prices dropped like a hot tomato. It was that particular price area area that became a key supply/demand area that gave me deep concerns (fear). Simply, I tried very hard not to open any trade positions within that unusual price area along with using it to mange my initial stop/loss protection on many trades. Anyways, I caught one runner (big profit as a Long position around 1033am est) that got me profitable for the day and I just held on for the remainder of the trade. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +6.20 points or $620.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=770.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=965

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks: $102 Oil Has Investors On Edge
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporter
March 2, 2011: 4:32 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended slightly higher Wednesday, as nervous investors focus on oil prices, which rose above $102 a barrel on renewed concerns about oil and the Libyan conflict.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 9 points, or 0.1%, with Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) posting the biggest gains.

The S&P 500 (SPX) added 2 points, or 0.2%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) gained 11 points, or 0.4%.

Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) was a big winner on both of those indexes, with the stock popping 3.3% amid reports that the online portal company is in talks to sell its 30% stake in its Yahoo Japan venture.

U.S. stocks sank Tuesday, with all three major indexes falling more than 1%, as oil prices spiked almost 3%.

* Oil prices are too high. Period.

"We're seeing a bit of a recovery in the market from yesterday, but we're still in a tug of war period," said Karl Mills, president and chief investment officer at Jurika Mills & Keifer. "The swing factor is what's happening with the price of oil."

Oil prices continued to advance Wednesday, rising $2.60, or 2.6%, to settle at $102.23 a barrel, the highest since September 2008.

"The key is to watch how far and how quickly oil prices rise," Mills said. "The economy can handle where oil is now, but nobody sees the geopolitical uncertainties going away, and higher oil prices could curb economic growth here and in Europe."

Gold futures for April delivery also rose, as investors made a play for safety. The yellow metal touched an intraday all-time high of $1,441 an ounce, before easing slightly to settle at a fresh record of $1,437.70 an ounce.
0:00 /00:55Gold rush

World markets: World markets slumped Wednesday, a day after the big U.S. sell-off, as forces loyal to leader Moammar Gadhafi attacked rebels in eastern Libya.

European stocks posted losses. Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 0.4%, the DAX in Germany lost 0.6% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.8%.

Asian markets ended sharply lower. The Shanghai Composite slid 0.2%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong tumbled 1.5% and Japan's Nikkei sank 2.4%.

Economy: ADP released its latest private-sector jobs report, showing a gain of 217,000 jobs for February. Economists had forecast the ADP report to show that private businesses hired 165,000 new workers last month.

Employers announced plans to cut 50,702 jobs in February, a 32% increase over last month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

In the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report, a reading of the economic situation from the regional Fed banks, the central bank said manufacturers and retailers across all 12 of the Fed's districts are passing on rising commodity prices to consumers, but the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace.

Companies: Shares of Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) rose 0.8% after the company's CEO Steve Jobs made a surprise appearance on stage in San Francisco to debut the iPad 2, which received a new, thinner design and an updated "A5" dual-core microprocessor.

Currencies and bonds The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound but rose versus the Japanese yen.

The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.46% from 3.40% late Tuesday.

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Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks settled with narrow to modest gains after spending the session bouncing around under the beguile of oil, which pushed to a new two-year closing high amid ongoing geopolitical concerns related to the Middle East and North Africa.

Gradual buying helped stocks head higher in the first couple of hours of trade, but the tone deteriorated as oil attracted renewed interest. Traders had a muted response to bullish inventory data, but reports surfaced that Libyan fighter jets fired on the oil terminal city of Masra El Brega propeled prices in the continuous contract as high as $102.37 per barrel. They settled just off of that mark.

Oil's ability to hold its gain into the close of pit trade and even afterward in electronic trade undermined strength in the stock market, which had traded to afternoon highs only an hour before the close. Stocks drifted downward during the last leg of trade for a rather underwhelming finish.

Despite that, semiconductor stocks scored a 1.4% gain after analysts at JPMorgan upgraded the space. Retailers were relatively strong ahead of their monthly same-store results -- they collectively climbed 0.6%.

More stiff selling sent the Amex Airline Index down 0.9%, which comes on top of its 3.0% loss in the prior session. Higher oil prices remain the primary culprit.

Corporate news was of little concern to the overall market, but a stronger-than-expected ADP Employment Change attracted attention. The report indicated that private payrolls increased in February by 217,000, which is considerably greater than the increase of 163,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Although the positive ADP Change portends well for the official nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, Fed Chairman Bernanke reminded the House of Representatives during his semi-annual monetary policy testimony that unemployment remains stubbornly high.

That said, the Fed's latest Beige Book states that wage pressures remain steady, even though overall economic activity improved across the various Fed districts.

Despite an improving picture of economic activity and varied gains by stocks, precious metals continued to attract safety seekers. In turn, gold gained 0.6% to close pit trade at $1437.70 per ounce. Along the way it set a new all-time high of $1441.00 per ounce. Silver advanced 1.0% to finish at $34.82 per ounce after it notched a fresh 30-year high at $34.97.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.5%), Tech (+0.5%), Industrials (+0.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.4%), Health Care (+0.3%), Materials (+0.2%), Utilities (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Financial (-0.7%)DJ30 +8.78 NASDAQ +10.66 NQ100 +0.5% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +2.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1454/1.99 bln/1159 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1890/1.02 bln/1078

3:30 pm : Softs led the commodities complex higher today, posting a 1.4% gain. May sugar futures rallied 3.8% to close at $0.3038/pound, on news that JP Morgan reportedly takes delivery of nearly 1 mln tons of raw sugar.

Headline risk from the Middle East sent April WTI crude oil higher by 2.6% to $102.23 per barrel, marking its first close above the $100 level since late Sept of 2008. There were numerous unsubstantiated reports indicating that fighting in the oil terminal city of Masra El Brega had escalated. April natural gas shed 1% to close at $3.81 per MMBtu.

April gold settled higher by 0.6% to $1437.70 per ounce. It traded to a new all-time high at $1441.00 per ounce. May silver gained 1% to finish at $34.82 per ounce. It notched a fresh ~30 yr high at $34.97. Both metals moved higher again on a flight to safety as well as weakness in the dollar.DJ30 +21.12 NASDAQ +15.36 SP500 +3.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1478/1.6 bln/1137 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1917/725.1 mln/1040

3:00 pm : Stocks have worked their way to afternoon highs amid broad-based support. The effort has given the major averages modest to solid gains with only an hour remaining before the toll of the closing bell.

Share volume has been solid this session, such that trading volume on the NYSE is quickly approaching 700 million shares. Volume on the Big Board has averaged more than 1 billion shares per day for the past week or so. DJ30 +37.35 NASDAQ +16.95 SP500 +5.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1336/1.48 bln/1252 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1851/668 mln/1079

2:30 pm : The Dow and the S&P 500 continue to trade near the neutral line while the Nasdaq holds on to a narrow gain.

Semiconductor issues remain generally supportive of the Nasdaq, but NVIDIA (NVDA 20.45, -1.20) has been hobbled in afternoon trade. TiVo (TIVO 9.12, -0.70) has also been a laggard following news of the company's earnings miss. Both stocks are now at a one-month lows. DJ30 +10.95 NASDAQ +7.23 SP500 +1.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1227/1.35 bln/1375 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1683/610 mln/1244

2:05 pm : The Fed just released its latest Beige Book, which states that overall activity improved across the various districts. Additionally, the Beige Book states that input costs have increased, but wage pressures remain steady. It also notes that several districts showed improvements in commercial and real estate leasing, even though overall loan demand remains mixed and lending standards remain tight.

The broad market hasn't made much of a reaction to the statements found in the Beige Book. Instead, the S&P 500 is sitting at the flat line. DJ30 -3.18 NASDAQ +6.69 SP500 +0.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1165/1.24 bln/1430 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/560 mln/1358

1:30 pm : The broad market has paused at afternoon highs to take a bit of a breather, but shares of Apple (AAPL 352.64, +3.33) recently set a fresh session high following news that Steve Jobs made an appearance at the company's latest event. The event has, so far, focused on the latest version of the iPad.

With help from Apple, large-cap tech is looking strong. As such, the Nasdaq 100 is up 0.6%. DJ30 +10.25 NASDAQ +11.80 SP500 +2.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1275/1.12 bln/1295 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1701/514 mln/1191

1:00 pm : Ongoing concerns about geopolitical tension in the Middle East continues to stoke volatility in oil prices, which are providing broader market participants with trading cues.

Oil were up only modestly early this morning, but began to push toward $100 per barrel before pit trade. Weekly inventory data showed a draw of 364,000, which is bullish compared to the consensus call for a build of 750,000 barrels, but no real reaction was made to that announcement. However, oil prices did extend their move higher shortly before noon ET, when reports surfaced that Libyan fighter jets fired on Masra El Brega, which is home to an oil terminal. Oil prices in the continuous contract were as high as $102.37 per barrel earlier, but they have since pulled back to $101.50 per barrel to trade with a 1.9% gain.

Oil's late morning rally sent stocks from solid gains into the red, but the pullback in oil prices has helped bring buyers back to the stock market so that the major equity averages now trade with varied gains.

Semiconductor stocks have been strong all session. The group is presently up 1.8%, thanks largely news that analysts at JPMorgan upgraded the space.

Financials continue to be challenged, though. The sector is down 0.4%. Thrifts and mortgage lenders are in especially weak condition as they trade with losses on the order of about 6%.

Participants got their hands on a strong ADP Employment Change this morning, but it did little to direct action. According to the report, private payrolls increased by 217,000 in February. That is much greater than what had been widely expected.

Despite the encouraging report, Fed Chairman Bernanke reminded the House of Representatives unemployment remains stubbornly high during his semi-annual monetary policy testimony. He also noted, though, that the overall economy has strengthened.

Still on the agenda for today is the Fed's latest Beige Book, which is due at 2:00 PM ET.DJ30 +13.17 NASDAQ +13.29 SP500 +2.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1362/1.03 bln/1205 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1768/477 mln/1109

12:30 pm : Stocks have rebounded back into positive territory trade with solid gains. The move comes as oil prices ease off of their session high of $102.37 per barrel -- oil is about $0.70 off of that mark at the moment.

Despite this session's swings, the Volatility Index is actually down a little more than 1%. It had spiked about 15% during the prior session's sell-off. DJ30 +10.67 NASDAQ +13.39 SP500 +2.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1179/930 mln/1356 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1531/430 mln/1323

12:00 pm : Stocks have extended their downturn so that the Dow and S&P 500 are now in the red. The Nasdaq, now barely positive, continues to find support from semiconductor stocks, which are up 1.1% as a group.

Oil prices continue to drive action among stocks. The energy component recently pushed past $102 per barrel, which makes for a fresh session high.

Oil's hike hasn't helped energy stocks, however. Instead, the sector is down 0.5% as it gets caught up in broader market selling pressure. DJ30 -30.08 NASDAQ +2.89 SP500 -2.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1442/788 mln/1060 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1753/368 mln/1080

11:30 am : Stocks are rolling over, but they continue to sport varied gains. Their pullback from session highs coincides with a spike by oil prices. Oil prices are currently up 1.9% at $101.55 per barel, but they were recently as high as $101.79 per barrel. Some reports have surfaced saying that Libyan fighter jets have fired on Masra El Brega, which is home to an oil terminal.DJ30 +23.65 NASDAQ +16.97 SP500 +3.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1578/675 mln/907 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1950/309 mln/886

11:00 am : Stocks are at session highs following a pullback in oil prices. Oil prices recently fell below $100 per barrel, but they have since rebounded to $100.20 per barrel so that they sport a 0.6% gain. Oil prices are still off of their session high near $101.50 per barrel.

Semiconductor stocks continue to climb, which has helped give the Nasdaq a nice lead over its counterparts. Their 2.5% advance this session follows an industry upgrade from analysts at JPMorgan. Semiconductor stocks are already up 12% this year. DJ30 +43.90 NASDAQ +22.77 SP500 +6.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1433/509 mln/1003 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1844/237 mln/945

10:35 am : Crude oil futures continue to gain as fighting in Libya continues as well as turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East. April crude oil traded higher overnight and quickly rallied for about $2/barrel one hour before pit trading began. The energy component hit new session highs of $101.47 per barrel at the open, but has since pulled back and was modestly higher ahead of inventory data. Following the data, which showed a draw of 364K vs. consensus of a build of 750K), crude has little reaction and is now up 0.8% at $10.045 per barrel.

Natural gas, on the other hand, is the worst performing commodity in the CRB Index currently. This morning was volatile in natural gas, which lost steam earlier this morning, then fell sharply (over 2%) over an hour before pit trade was set to begin. However, it quickly reversed and erased it's losses. It current activity, its 0.9% lower at $3.84 per MMBtu.

Cotton futures rose the exchange limit overnight on news that South Africa was cutting production estimates, in combination with strong China demand. The May contract is currently up 7 cents (or 3.6%) at $2.006/lb. Grains were mixed in overnight trade with soybeans +1.1%, corn +0.5% and wheat -0.1% (all May contracts).

Precious metals are higher this morning. April gold is currently up 0.4% at $14370.40 per ounce, while May silver is up 1.3% at $34.79 per ounce.DJ30 +19.37 NASDAQ +10.30 SP500 +2.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1229/361.4 mln/1130 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1588/179.5 mln/1141

10:00 am : The broader market has started to bounce to a modest gain. The move has been relatively broad, but Joy Global (JOYG 93.86, -3.14) has been left behind. Its loss, which is currently near 3%, is one of the worst in the S&P 500 this morning. The stock's slump follows news of an earnings miss for the latest quarter.

Meanwhile, Yahoo! (YHOO 16.76, +0.65) is up close to 4%, which makes it one of this morning's strongest performers. The spike follows word that the company is looking to divest its stake in its Japan venture.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.9%), Industrials (+0.6%), Tech (+0.6%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%), Utilities (+0.1%), Financial (+0.1%), Health Care (+0.1%), Materials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)DJ30 +18.58 NASDAQ +6.78 SP500 +2.11

09:45 am : A lack of early leadership has left stocks to move in mixed fashion during the first few minutes of trade.

Energy stocks, collectively down 0.9%, are early laggards. Their weakness comes even though oil prices are at $100.50 per barrel with a 0.9% gain. Oil prices were up to $101.47 per barrel earlier this morning.

Semiconductor stocks are showing early strength. As a group they are up 1.1% in the wake of news that analysts at JPMorgan upgraded the sector. DJ30 +2.38 NASDAQ +1.16 SP500 -0.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1046/64 mln/1049 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1247/57 mln/1300

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.60. Action ahead of the open has been rather choppy. The premarket gyrations come mostly in response to renewed strength in oil, which has pulled back a bit from its morning high above $101 per barrel to trade with a 1.0% gain at $100.65 per barrel. Oil had been up only modestly about an hour ago, but its upward push offers a tacit reminder that there continue to be concerns about the social and political environment of the Middle East. After all, Saudi Arabia's stock market fell another 4% after it suffered a 7% drop in the prior session. The latest dose of data has been solid, though. Specifically, the latest ADP Employment Change said that in February private payrolls increased by 217,000, which is much greater than what had been widely expected. The better-than-expected reading supports expectations for a strong nonfarm payrolls report this coming Friday. Corporate news has been of little consequence to the overall market, and even though participants will keep tabs on Fed Chairman Bernanke's monetary policy report to the House of Representatives at 10:00 AM ET, he is unlikely to offer any new take on the economy or its outlook. With oil prices elevated, the latest weekly oil inventory report will be of particular interest when it is released at 10:30 AM ET. Also on the agenda for today is the Fed's latest Beige Book, which is due at 2:00 PM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.10. Futures for the S&P 500 have recovered back to the flat line, although oil continues to trade at $101 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Germany's DAX is down 0.9% at the moment. Its slide stems from a broad-based selling effort that comes in the wake of Wall Street's tumble in the prior session. Automakers Daimler (DAI), Volkswagen, and BMW have been the heaviest drags on the German bourse. Volkswagen reported that its sales in America during February were up almost 19% year over year. BMW said its U.S. sales for February were up almost 11% from the prior year. Meanwhile, Adidas has managed to attract renewed support in the face of broader weakness. It has had difficulty sustaining a move above its 50-day moving average, however. France's CAC has also been hit with a broad-based selling effort; in turn, the French exchange is down 1.0%. Of its 40 members, only Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), Bouygues SA, Vinci, and Saint Gobain have managed to put together gains. Total (TOT) and BNP Paribas are the two heaviest drags on trade. Britain's FTSE is off by 0.6% at the moment. Natural resource plays Rio Tinto (RIO), BP Plc (BP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and Anglo American have had the most detrimental impact on overall action. Banking issues like Standard Charter and Lloyds Group (LYG) have exhibited strength, however. The February Construction PMI for the United Kingdom came in at 56.5, up from 53.7 in the prior month.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei dropped 2.4% overnight to its 50-day moving average. Of its 225 members, 222 logged a loss. Fast Retailing, Softbank, and Honda Motor (HMC) were atop the list of losing issues. Nippon Telegraph finished flat, but Showa Shell and Yahoo Japan Corp were able to boast the only gains. Recent speculation posits that Yahoo! (YHOO) wants to sell its stake in its Japan joint venture. Hong Kong's Hang Seng sank 1.5% as it, too, was hit with a concerted selling effort that left all but three of its 45 components to close lower. PetroChina (PTR) and China Resources Enterprise were able to stage gains while Hong Kong & China Gas finished flat. Heavyweights HSBC (HBC), China Mobile, and China Petroleum (SNP) hurt overall trade the most. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite managed to limit its loss to a tame 0.2%. China Merchant Bank and PetroChina were primary sources of support as China Petroleum, CSR Corp, and China Railway led a broader retreat.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.60. Stock futures have slipped to their lowest level of the last few hours. The move lower is more in response to a spike in oil prices past $101 per barrel in electronic trade, rather than any kind of reaction to the latest ADP Employment Change, which indicated that 217,000 jobs were added to private payrolls in February. That reading compares favorably to the Briefing.com consensus forecast, which had called for just 163,000 private payroll additions.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.10. The major equity averages sank in the prior session. That has stirred selling abroad, such that the Dow Jones World Index, excluding the U.S., is down 0.8%. Stock futures aren't quite pointing to a rebound, though. Their flat position relative to fair value is underscored by a sense of caution ahead of the February ADP Employment Change, which is due at 8:15 AM ET. The report is often referenced for directional cues related to the official nonfarm payrolls report, which will be posted this coming Friday. The mood among morning participants also remains challenged by oil prices that continue to trade near the mark of $100 per barrel. Participants get their hands on the latest weekly inventory figures at 10:30 AM ET. Also on today's agenda, Fed Chairman is scheduled to continue his semi-annual monetary policy report at 10:00 AM ET. The Fed's latest Beige Book will be posted at 2:00 PM ET.

06:58 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.70.

06:58 am : Nikkei...10492.38...-261.70...-2.40%. Hang Seng...23048.66...-347.80...-1.50%.

06:58 am : FTSE...5910.28...-25.40...-0.40%. DAX...71777178.16...-45.10...-0.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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