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 Post subject: March 30th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +12.80
PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:47 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
I was a little more aggressive today in my trading of the Emini TF futures although I had one entry error and two position size errors that caused me to leave about $400 on the table instead of banking it. Best trade of the day was Long position around 1044am est even though I exited the trade early in contradiction to my WRB Analysis. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +12.80 points or $1280.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=797.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=965

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Gain On Jobs and Energy Optimism
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter
March 30, 2011: 4:35 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended Wednesday with solid gains, as investors welcomed two reports on job growth.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 71 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) added 8 points, or 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 19 points, also 0.7%.

Meanwhile, smaller stocks reached pre-recession highs. The Russell 2000 Index, a measure of small-cap stocks, rose 1.2%, reaching its highest level since October 2007.

Wednesday was all about jobs, as investors look ahead to the government's payroll numbers on Friday. Before the opening bell, one report showed that employers announced fewer planned job cuts in March, even as government sector layoffs mounted.

A second report showed private sector employment rose by 201,000 in March, according to payroll processor ADP (ADP, Fortune 500). The figure came in slightly below forecasts but remained above 200,000.

Investors look to the ADP report as a guide for what's coming in Friday's government report.

"The market started off the day embracing the ADP report for payrolls, which came in pretty solid," said Howard Ward, portfolio manager for GAMCO Growth Funds. "There's a strong likelihood they won't be disappointed when Friday's number comes out."

A CNNMoney survey of 18 economists forecast an 180,000 jump in payrolls. They also expect the unemployment rate to hold at 8.9%.

* Video - Underemployed and looking for work

So far this week, investors have shrugged off ongoing global concerns in the Middle East, Libya and Japan. Stocks in Japan rallied overnight, while shares in Europe were higher in active trading. The Dow has gained about 1% since Friday's close.

Energy: The energy sector pushed ahead after President Obama called for an increase in U.S. oil and ethanol production, to reduce the country's dependence on energy imports.

"It'll create more jobs in the U.S., which is a shot in the arm for markets," said Dan Flynn, energy trader with PFG Best.

ConocoPhillips (COP, Fortune 500) surged 2.4%, Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) rose 1.5% and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) gained 0.6%.

Natural gas stocks also continued their rally, as Obama renewed his push for alternative energy sources.

"We have to discover and produce cleaner, renewable sources of energy," Obama said in a speech at Georgetown University. "And we have to do it quickly."

Shares of Chesapeake Energy (CHK, Fortune 500) and National Fuel Gas (NFG) each gained more than 3%.

Meanwhile, crude oil for May delivery slid 52 cents, to settle at $104.27 a barrel, after a government report showed U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected last week.

Natural gas futures for May delivery surged 2.4% on Wednesday, and have jumped more than 13% since early March.
0:00 /01:09Priceline takes off

Companies: Shares of Cephalon (CEPH) surged nearly 28% after specialty pharmaceutical firm Valeant (VRX) launched a hostile bid for the U.S. drugmaker.

Shares of private equity firm Apollo Global (APO) fell 4.2% after the firm priced its initial public offering at $19 a share -- the top end of its expected range.

Qihoo 360 Technology (QIHU), the third-largest Internet company in China, started trading on the NYSE Wednesday, a day after pricing its initial public offering at $14.50 a share. Shares surged 135% to $33.54.

Qihoo's debut marks the largest Chinese IPO in the U.S. this year, following successful IPOs by Chinese tech firms Dangdang (DANG) and Youku (YOKU) in December.

BlackRock's (BLK, Fortune 500) stock rose 6.6%. The investment firm is replacing Genzyme (GENZ, Fortune 500) on the S&P 500.

World markets: European stocks ended higher. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.3%, the DAX in Germany jumped 1.8% and France's CAC 40 added 0.9%.

Asian markets ended mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei rallied 2.6% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 1.7%, while the Shanghai Composite was little changed.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the Japanese yen, but fell versus the euro and the British pound.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $7.40 to $1,424.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.45% from 3.49% late Tuesday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Renewed buying interest has the stock market on pace for its best first quarter performance since 1998.

Robust gains abroad provided a spark that helped stocks extend their prior session advance. No real reaction was made to the latest ADP Employment Change, which indicated that private payrolls increased by 201,000 in March. The Briefing.com consensus had called for an increase of 210,000.

Support continues to be broad based, but telecom has consistently been a top performer during the course of the past few sessions. In fact, the sector is up about 5% week to date. Integrated plays AT&T (T 30.71, +0.66) and Verizon (VZ 38.46, +0.17) have hit new 52-week highs in the process.

Strength in both shares of T and VZ helped the Dow climb to within about 20 points of the two-year high that it set little more than a month ago. Meanwhile, strength among small-cap stocks took the Russell 2000 to its highest level since 2008. The broad-based S&P 500 is back near its one-month high, which has it on pace for a quarterly gain of more than 5%. It encountered some resistance in the 1330 zone, though.

Energy stocks experienced some volatility with President Obama's outline of the U.S. energy policy. Energy stocks had been up about 1%, but gave up all of that gain in the minutes leading up to the speech. A lack of surprises enabled the sector to rebound to a 0.8% gain.

Tech stocks traded with relative weakness all session. Although the sector settled in positive territory, its 0.2% gain paled in comparison with what the broad market scored. Despite that, the tech-rich Nasdaq actually edged out its counterparts. Biotech play Cephalon (CEPH 75.44, +16.69) was a top performer after Valeant Pharma (VRX 50.08, +5.69) announced an all cash takeover offer of $73 per share for the company. Both stocks set 52-week highs.

Even though the end of the first quarter is close at hand, participation remains unimpressive in that share volume failed to break 1 billion on the NYSE again. Part of the reluctance among portfolio managers to rearrange their holdings is owed to caution ahead of the official nonfarm payrolls report, which is due this Friday.

Treasuries settled the day with solid gains. Their advance came in the face of a stronger stock market and lackluster results from an auction of 7-year Notes. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.79, dollar demand of $80.9 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 49.4%.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+1.4%), Materials (+1.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.1%), Materials (+1.0%), Energy (+0.8%), Financials (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.7%), Consumer Staples (+0.6%), Industrials (+0.4%), Tech (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +71.60 NASDAQ +19.90 NQ100 +0.5% R2K +1.3% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +8.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1826/1.81 bln/779 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2191/918 mln/811

3:30 pm : Grains (-0.6%) and softs (-0.1%) were the two declining sectors today. Precious metals (+0.9%) led the advancers. May cocoa shed an additional 2.3%, to close at $2987.00 per metric ton, adding to yesterday's sizeable losses.

May natural gas rallied for 2.1% to close at $4.36 per MMBtu. Today's gains come on the heels of a two session sell off. May crude oil finished lower by 0.5% to $104.27 per barrel. This morning's inventory data sent crude oil to its lowest levels of the morning, but it was able to recoup most of those losses ahead of the close.

April gold ended higher by 0.5% to $1423.80 per ounce, while May silver gained 1.4% to finish at $37.51 per ounce. Both metals retraced mid-morning sell offs to close in positive territory. DJ30 +87.99 NASDAQ +21.53 SP500 +10.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1779/1.4 bln/818 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2224/588.1 mln/757

3:00 pm : Only an hour remains in today's trade. That has traders turning their focus to tomorrow, which will be the final session of the quarter. As things currently stand, the S&P 500 heads into that session with a quarter-to-date gain of more than 5%, which makes for the stock market's strongest first quarter performance since 1998.

As for tomorrow's calendar, it features weekly initial jobless claims, the Chicago PMI for March, and factory orders for February. Mosaic (MOS 80.02, +1.17) and CarMax (KMX 34.27, +0.32) are the two most widely held names scheduled to report earnings between tonight and tomorrow morning. DJ30 +95.40 NASDAQ +20.15 SP500 +10.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1755/1.30 bln/840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2239/545 mln/743

2:30 pm : A favor for risk has caused participants to push small-cap stocks sharply higher. In turn, the Russell 2000 is up more than 1% to its best level since 2008. However, the 5.8% year-to-date gain currently sported by the Russell 2000 matches that of the S&P 500.

Despite the strong tone currently displayed in the broad market, Family Dollar (FDO 52.21, -0.19) is under pressure. The stock's slip comes in the face of an upside earnings surprise and a strong forecast. In contrast, fellow discount retailer Dollar General (DG 31.52, +1.00) is up more than 3%. DJ30 +96.27 NASDAQ +21.17 SP500 +11.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1722/1.20 bln/858 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2235/504 mln/732

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently attempted a push up to the 1332, but it has since eased back from that mark. The stock market's hesitation near the one-month high comes after a near 6% climb in only two weeks.DJ30 +92.98 NASDAQ +19.19 SP500 +10.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1725/1.11 bln/851 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2232/468 mln/711

1:30 pm : Treasuries haven't made much of a reaction to the outcome of the 7-year Note auction, which drew a bid-to-cover of 2.79, dollar demand of $80.9 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 49.4%. For comparison, the prior auction had a bid-to-cover of 2.86, dollar demand of $82.9 billion and an indirect bidder participation rate of 49.7%. An average of the past six sessions makes for a bid-to-cover of 2.88, dollar demand of $83.6 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 51.4%.DJ30 +95.14 NASDAQ +20.51 SP500 +10.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1725/1.03 bln/833 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2243/435 mln/692

1:00 pm : Another round of broad-based buying has the stock market back near its one-month high and on pace for a quarterly gain of about 5%.

The S&P 500 has paused at the 1330 line, which hasn't been seen since the start of the month. The stock market's ability to recoup the losses that it suffered in the first half of the month has it on pace for a gain of about 5% for the first quarter. That puts the S&P 500 on pace for its best first quarter performance since 1998.

Telecom stocks have been the best performers over the past few sessions. Week to date the sector is up almost 5%. Blue chips Verizon (VZ 38.84, +0.55) and AT&T (T 30.87, +0.82) have been leaders in the space. Their strength has also helped take the Dow to within close reach of the 33-month high that was set in February.

Energy stocks are back up to a 1% gain after they had slipped ahead of President Obama's speech regarding U.S. energy policy. Oil's recovery to $104.90 per barrel has also helped the sector. Earlier this session oil had been down about a buck amid a greater-than-expected oil inventory build.

Although strength has been broad today, tech has trailed all session. Heavyweight Apple (AAPL 348.65, -2.31) has hampered the sector following its downgrade by analysts at Jeffries. Tech may be trading with relative weakness, but that really hasn't hurt the Nasdaq. Cephalon (CEPH 75.34, +16.59) has been a leader in the Nasdaq following news that it received a takeover offer of $73 per share in cash from Valeant Pharma (VRX 48.29, +3.90).

Participants got a preview of the official nonfarm payrolls report with the ADP Employment Change. It indicated that private payrolls increased by 201,000 in March. Since the number was on par with what had been expected, participants had only a muted response. DJ30 +90.54 NASDAQ +19.93 SP500 +10.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1728/920 mln/811 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2224/390 mln/703

12:30 pm : The top of the hour brings results from an auction of 7-year Notes. Treasuries have actually traded higher ahead of the announcement, despite strength in the stock market.

As was the case with auctions earlier this week, the current yield is just a couple of basis points above where it was for the previous auction, so value buyers are less likely to show up. Briefing.com's fixed income analysts are looking for a bid-to-cover of around 2.76, but anything below 2.66 would be considered weak while a number above 2.98 would be strong. The prior auction had a bid-to-cover of 2.86. DJ30 +89.95 NASDAQ +19.96 SP500 +10.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1742/848 mln/789 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2214/358 mln/674

12:00 pm : Energy stocks have rebounded with the opening comments of President Obama's speech regarding U.S. energy policy. Energy stocks had pulled back from a gain of about 1% to a gain of only about 0.3%, but they now sport a 0.8% gain.

Materials stocks have rallied, too. The sector actually traded with a slight loss about an hour ago, but it is now up 0.7%. PPG Industries (PPG 94.73, +4.14) is a top performer in the basic materials space, thanks to upside guidance. DJ30 +73.57 NASDAQ +15.63 SP500 +8.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1672/735 mln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2157/310 mln/708

11:30 am : The S&P 500 is back near its one-month high, but it is having some trouble extending today's gains up to the 1330 line. Nonetheless, stocks continue to sport strong gains.

Tech has been lagged noticeably today, though -- the sector is up just 0.1%. Heavyweight Apple (AAPL 348.43, -2.53) has been a source of weakness in the sector. Computer maker Dell (DELL 14.51, -0.26) has also been a drag.

Despite relative weakness among tech issues, the tech-rich Nasdaq isn't very far behind its counterparts. Primary support has been provided by Internet retailers Amazon.com (AMZN 178.70, +4.12) and eBay (EBAY 31.43, +0.35), but Cephalon (CEPH 75.25, +16.50) has scored one of the strongest gains in the Nasdaq following news that it received a takeover offer of $73 per share in cash from Valeant Pharma (VRX 48.97, +4.60). DJ30 +68.91 NASDAQ +13.13 SP500 +7.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1600/610 mln/837 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2049/265 mln/769

11:00 am : The drop in oil prices below $104 per barrel, which makes for a loss of almost 1%, has undercut the energy sector. As a group, energy stocks had been up almost 1% in the first half hour of trade, but they are now up a much more modest 0.3% for the day.

Schlumberger (SLB 92.76, -1.60) is a primary source of weakness in the sector after it scored a new 52-week high in the prior session. Fellow oil services plays Baker Hughes (BHI 72.79, -1.37) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV 80.75, -1.51) are also grappling with selling pressure. DJ30 +79.47 NASDAQ +15.01 SP500 +7.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1557/493 mln/828 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2024/213 mln/764

10:35 am : Strength in the dollar index this morning is pressuring select commodities.

Overnight and ahead of the open, April crude was in the red. Shortly after pit trading began crude pushed higher, barely moving into positive territory at $104.81/barrel. This was short-lived, however, as it quickly sold-off to new session lows of $104.02/barrel ahead of inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 2945K versus consensus of a build of 1500K, crude ticked higher and is now at $103.64/barrel, down 1.1%.

After losing 5% in a two-day sell off, April natural gas is modestly higher this morning, showing gains of 1.3% at $4.32 MMBtu.

Precious metals have been higher all morning, but pulled back in currently activity. April gold pulled back to the unchanged line and is now at $1418.80/oz and May silver is at $37.30/oz, up 0.8%.DJ30 +61.38 NASDAQ +9.49 SP500 +6.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1485/334.9 mln/807 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1995/151.0 mln/717

10:00 am : Shares of homebuilder Lennar (LEN 18.73, -0.34) failed to participate in the prior session's advance, despite an upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter. Its weakness continues this morning as the stock works its way down to a new one-month low. The weakness has spread to other homebuilders, which are collectively down in excess of 1%.

Internet retailers are having another strong session, though. The likes of Amazon.com (AMZN 179.26, +4.64) and Netflix (NFLX 240.55, +3.17) have led the group to a 2% gain this morning. More impressive is the 7% gain that the group has staged during the course of the past five trading sessions.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+1.5%), Utilities (+1.0%), Energy (+0.9%), Materials (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%), Consumer Staples (+0.6%), Industrials (+0.3%), Financials (+0.3%), Tech (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +67.97 NASDAQ +14.60 SP500 +7.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1530/165 mln/644 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1997/85 mln/627

09:45 am : Telecom continues to trade higher. The sector is up another 1.0% after it advanced 1.5% yesterday and 1.4% the day before. Integrated plays continue to lead the way. As such, shares of Dow component Verizon (VZ 38.75, +0.46) are at fresh 52-week highs.

In contrast, financials continue to lag. Although the sector is in positive territory, its 0.2% gain this morning is less than half of what the broader market has already achieved. Heavyweights Bank of America (BAC 13.33, -0.02), Citigroup (C 4.43, -0.02), and Goldman Sachs (GS 158.14, -0.33) are hampering the sector this morning. DJ30 +53.25 NASDAQ +13.39 SP500 +6.53

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.90. Overseas strength has provided a spark to stock futures, which point to an opening gain. Such a start would at the very least help solidify the stock market's near 5% gain for the first quarter. As things currently stand, that would make for the strongest first quarter performance for the S&P 500 since 1998. Premarket strength persists in the wake of an in-line ADP Employment Change report, which somewhat of a precursor to the official nonfarm payrolls report that will be posted Friday morning. Caution ahead of that report has put a cap on participation and, in turn, share volume in recent sessions, despite typical end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing and window dressing.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.60. Europe's major bourses are up with heady gains after a lackluster session yesterday. Germany's DAX is leading Europe's bourses with a 1.6% gain. France's CAC has advanced only half of that, but the 0.8% gain is still impressive in its own right. GDF Suez, ArcelorMittal (MT), and Total (TOT) are among the CAC's top performers. Financial outfits BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole are caught up in a flurry of selling interest, though. Britain's FTSE is currently up 0.4%. Lloyds Group (LYG) has run into some selling interest following its latest quarterly report, which featured a light revenue figure that has overshadowed stronger-than-expected earnings. More generally, European Auto Suppliers ratings were left unchanged by Moody's in the wake of Japan's earthquake. As for data, the eurozone Business Climate Index came in at 1.41 for March after a reading of 1.46 in February. The final Consumer Confidence reading for March remained unchanged at -10.6.

Japan's Nikkei advanced 2.6%. Hitachi (HIT) was a top performer after it reassured investors that efforts are in place to return production to capacity. Nissan (NSANY) also announced that production will be at full capacity in coming months. The comments came amid news that Moody's said that Japanese automakers are expected to be weakened in the aftermath of the country's massive earthquake. Meanwhile, analysts at Fitch put insurers Mitsui Sumitomo, Aioi Nissay Dowa, Sompo Japan, and Nippon KOA on Rating Watch Negative. Economic data featured preliminary February Industrial Production, which increased by 0.4% after a 1.3% increase in January. Hong Kong's Hang Seng ascended to a 1.7% gain. Hutchison Whampoa surged following its latest quarterly report. Agricultural Bank also had a strong reaction to its latest report. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite failed to follow the other major Asian averages; it slipped 0.1%. China's Leading Index for February came in at 101.05, barely changed from January.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.60. Stock futures are off of their morning highs, but they continue to trade with strength. The ADP Employment Change for March was of little surprise. It indicated that 201,000 private payrolls were added during the month. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had been pegged at 210,000. The report's February figure was revised downward to 208,000 from 217,000, though.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.20. Buying momentum has extended into premarket trade so that stock futures point to a positive start. Strength among the major averages abroad has added a positive backdrop. Corporate news flow is somewhat slow this morning, but the latest merger and acquisition activity features word that Cephalon (CEPH) has been approached by Valeant Pharma (VRX) with a buyout offer valued at about $5.7 billion, or $73 per share of CEPH. The offer represents a premium of about 24% over CEPH's prior session closing price. The ADP Employment Change Report is due shortly -- 8:15 AM ET, to be exact. Weekly oil inventory data is due later this morning (10:30 AM ET) and results from an auction of 7-year Notes are scheduled for this afternoon (1:00 PM ET). A handful of regional Fed Presidents -- Lacker, Hoenig, and Bullard -- are slated for separate speeches throughout this afternoon.

06:40 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.40.

06:40 am : Nikkei...9708.79...+249.70...+2.60%. Hang Seng...23451.43...+391.10...+1.70%.

06:40 am : FTSE...5959.86...+27.70...+0.50%. DAX...7036.41...+102.00...+1.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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