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 Post subject: February 25th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +18.10
PostPosted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 11:22 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
The profit goal today was $1500 or about $500 more than my usual profit goal being used this year 2011 with the increased volatility. However, today with a few key economic reports and the growing unrest in the Middle East with violence along with Oil prices making headline news...it was a good day to have a higher profit target. However, the only problem I had in my trading today was the last 4 trades that got "pick pocketed" (trailing stop hit) to only see the price suddenly reverse and go higher without giving me any re-entry signal...that was very frustrating. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +18.10 points or $1810.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=87&t=765. However, be advised that I'm frequently testing new trade signal methods or new trade management rules (e.g. stop/loss, trailing stops, profit targets, order types, time frames, workstation templates et cetera) after entry of existing profitable trade signal methods whenever market conditions change. Thus, adapting is a critical variable to my consistent profits along with preventing me from becoming complacent in my trading...this helps avoid trading account drawdowns.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=131&t=921

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks: Worst Week Since November
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
February 25, 2011: 4:44 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed solidly higher on Friday, but fears about Libya and the oil markets translated into the worst week for stocks since November.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 62 points, or 0.5%, to 12,130; the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 13.8 points, or 1.1%, to 1,320; and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 43 points, or 1.5%, to 2,781.05.

The Dow was led higher by shares of Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), which rose 2.2% after the aerospace giant won a $35 billion tanker contract from the Air Force. Shares of Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) also led the blue chips higher, closing up up 2.7%.

Today's gains come after the Dow posted losses for three consecutive sessions following the increased violence in Libya and rapidly rising oil prices. The S&P 500 is down 1.7% this week, the Dow Jones fell 2.1% and the Nasdaq lost 1.9%. It was the worst week for stocks since the week of Nov 12.

Part of today's market gain was related to the price of oil, investors said. Crude swung between modest gains and losses on Friday, trading at around $98 a barrel in late-morning trading. While still hovering near $100 a barrel, crude is now about $5 below the high it hit earlier this week.

Marc Pado, chief market strategist for Cantor Fitzgerald, said he believes the oil market has calmed from its "panic mode" earlier this week. Even if oil does continue to rise above $100, Mado said he isn't as worried as he was three years ago during the commodities bubble of 2008.

"I don't think $100-a-barrel oil prices are as a big of a concern for the market as they were [then] because we have the economic growth to absorb some of these higher prices," Pado said.

But Paul Zemsky, head of asset allocation with ING Investment Management, said he doesn't expect today's stock gains to hold going into next week if Libya remains in turmoil.

"I see this as a short-term bounce, if violence in oil producing countries continues, it's going to easily bring more fear into the stock and oil markets," Zemsky said.

On Thursday, stocks rebounded from afternoon lows to finish with small losses, as oil prices retreated from two-year highs above $100 a barrel.

Economy: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the fourth quarter. This is a revision from a preliminary report.

The GDP revision was much less than the 3.3% increase economists forecasted, according to a consensus survey by Briefing.com.

A final read on February's University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey also is on the docket. The index is expected to remain unchanged at 75.1.

Companies: Autodesk (ADSK) shares jumped 6% after the company reported a 23% rise in earnings after Thursday's closing bell.

Shares of Salesforce.com (CRM) rose 3.4% on Friday after the company reported a 29% jump in fourth-quarter sales.
0:00 /01:13Buying Boeing

World markets: European stocks closed broadly higher on Friday. Britain's FTSE 100 added 1.4%, the DAX in Germany ticked up 0.8% and France's CAC 40 gained 1.5%.

Asian markets ended the session mostly higher. The Shanghai Composite was flat, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 1.8% and Japan's Nikkei added 0.7%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained strength against the euro and the British pound, but slipped against the Japanese yen.

Oil for April delivery closed up rose 91 cents, or 0.94%, to $98.19 a barrel.

Motorists are feeling the spike. The nationwide average price for gasoline rose nearly 6 cents overnight, according to AAA. This means that prices have jumped nearly 12 cents this week.

Gold futures for April delivery dipped $6.50, or about 0.5%, to $1,408.30 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged higher, with the yield hitting 3.43%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:05 pm : Buyers stepped back in after watching the broader market fall more than 2% during the course of the prior session. Although headline risk related to social and political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa continues, the flow of news out of the region has been less unsettling to investors. That had a hand in dropping the Volatility Index, often euphemistically dubbed the Fear Gauge, for a 9.3% loss.

Despite the stock market's strong gain and the drop in volatility, Treasuries still managed to attract some buying interest. That sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note down to 3.412%.

All 10 of the stock market's major sectors staged gains this session, but financials and materisld were the best performers. They both swung to a 1.4% gain.

Energy lagged in the early going, but rallied in the afternoon to settle with a 1.2% gain. Its swing higher came after oil prices advanced 0.7% to settle at $97.97 per barrel. Though that makes for a solid gain, oil's trade today was less volatile than it had been in recent sessions.

Fourth quarter GDP was revised downward to reflect growth of 2.8% after the advance reading showed a 3.2% growth rate. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, growth of 3.3%. Despite the surprisingly large downward revision, participants continued to pursue stocks.

The final Consumer Sentiment Survey for February from the University of Michigan bolstered buying. It came in at 77.5, which is the best reading since January 2008.

Corporate news was still of little overall concern, but it caused some stock-specific swings. Autodesk (ADSK 42.75, +2.32) staged one of the strongest moves after it posted better-than-expected earnings.

Gap (GPS 22.75, +0.26) and J.C. Penney (JCP 34.16, -2.39) posted upside earnings surprises of their own and announced share repurchase plans. Gap complemented its report with a dividend hike. Despite that, retailers advanced a relatively tame 0.3%.

Participation hasn't been as strong today as it has in the past three sessions, when total share volume on the NYSE exceeded 1 billion shares with ease. DJ30 +61.95 NASDAQ +43.15 SP500 +13.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2023/1.62 bln/604 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2458/721.0 mln/526

3:50 pm : Some of the more widely watched commodities put on a mixed performance today, but the CRB COmmodity Index still swung to a 1.6% gain, which makes for its best single-session performance in more than a month.

Oil futures prices were less volatile than they have been in the past couple of days. After a couple of pullbacks to the neutral line the energy component still managed to settle at $97.97 per barrel with a 0.7% gain.

Natural gas had an impressive session. The commodity closed 3.5% higher at $4.01 per MMBtu.

Gold prices finished pit trade fractionally lower at $1409.70 per ounce. Silver shed 0.5% to settle pit trade at $33.01 per ounce.

Cotton futures were limit up to trade at $1.84 per pound after their prices had tumbled in each of the past four sessions. DJ30 +62.52 NASDAQ +41.61 SP500 +13.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2041/1515.3 mln/587 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2456/661.3 mln/531

3:00 pm : Stocks have been drifting along in a narrow range for the past couple of hours. Though that has made for some rather dull theatre, it allows for broad market gains to consolidate.

Steady gains continue to keep down volatility, though. As such, the Volatility Index is down more than 10%.

Participation hasn't been that strong this session, however. Only an hour remains before trade will close for the week and less than 600 million shares have traded hands on the NYSE. DJ30 +66.68 NASDAQ +40.49 SP500 +13.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1972/1.31 bln/631 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2436/570 mln/546

2:30 pm : This week has been characterized by instability in the Middle East and North Africa, fears of inflation, and a slew of quarterly reports. Though the former two themes continue to carry more headline risk than the latter item, it is worth checking up on the corporate scorecard.

Of the 369 companies Briefing.com covered this week, 50% of companies beat expectations for the top line. Some 54% beat EPS expectations.

Approximately 250 companies will be covered next week. There are a few widely held names in that bunch, but the overall quality of the names scheduled to report is inferior to what has been seen earlier this earnings season. DJ30 +72.39 NASDAQ +41.05 SP500 +13.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1960/1.24 bln/634 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2422/530 mln/547

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 is having some difficulty pushing past the 1320 line. Still, strength remains broad based.

Although the broader market is sitting at its session high, financials, tech stocks, and materials stocks -- early leaders -- are back a bit from their best levels of the day. Nonetheless, the trio continues to sport gains in excess of 1%.

Participation hasn't been as strong today as it has in the past three sessions, when total share volume on the NYSE exceeded 1 billion shares with ease. DJ30 +67.89 NASDAQ +40.83 SP500 +13.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1954/1.13 bln/616 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2416/482 mln/554

1:30 pm : Stocks have made a move to fresh session highs. The latest leg higher marks an extension of the push that stocks made from the midsession low that they set shortly before noon ET.

Treasuries have had a quiet session today. The subdued action surrounding that space stems from a new sense of calm among market participants. That calm is apparent in the precipitous drop in volatility, which has taken the Volatility Index down more than 10%. DJ30 +73.98 NASDAQ +40.40 SP500 +13.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1894/1.05 bln/673 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2400/445 mln/558

1:00 pm : The broad market fell in each of the past three sessions for a cumulative loss of 2.6%, but buyers have stepped back in with a strong bid as oil prices steady and news flow out of the Middle East and North Africa slows.

Social and political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa continues to carry considerable headline risk, but after suffering through the selling of the past few sessions participants are scooping up stocks. The improved mood among traders has taken the Volatility Index down 10%.

The willingness to return to riskier trades has come in the face of a significant downward revision to fourth quarter GDP. Fourth quarter GDP had been expected to show a 3.3% increase after the advance reading showed 3.2% growth, but instead it showed growth of just 2.8%.

The final Consumer Sentiment Survey for February from the University of Michigan proved stronger than expected, though. It came in at 77.5, which is the best reading since January 2008.

Financials, basic materials, and tech stocks have found the most favor among participants today. Each of the three sectors is up in excess of 1%.

Autodesk (ADSK 43.12, +2.69) is one of today's top performers. Better-than-expected earnings have helped the stock recover all of its losses this week. It has also provided leadership to the Nasdaq, which is out in front of the other headline indices for the second straight session.

Gap (GPS 22.79, +0.30) and J.C. Penney (JCP 34.80, -1.75) posted upside earnings surprises of their own and announced share repurchase plans. Gap complemented its report with a dividend hike. Despite that, retailers are up a relatively tame 0.5%. DJ30 +60.43 NASDAQ +37.06 SP500 +11.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 698/768 mln/698 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2354/400 mln/583

12:30 pm : The major equity averages continue to gradually reclaim their gains, but they haven't yet returned to the session highs that were set almost two hours ago.

For the second straight session the Nasdaq Composite has a nice lead over its two counterparts. In fact, its gain is more than triple that of the Dow. The Nasdaq's strength is largely owed to a rebound in tech issues, namely semiconductor stocks, which are collectively up 2.0%. DJ30 +53.35 NASDAQ +36.07 SP500 +11.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1814/880 mln/719 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2296/372 mln/632

12:00 pm : Stocks started to extend a recent pullback, but buyers were quick to step back in to provide support and help the major averages reclaim gains. Stocks are still off of session highs, however.

Retailers have been backed down to only a fractional gain. The group's relative weakness comes after it had outperformed in the prior session and follows strong reports from Gap (GPS 22.67, +0.18) and J.C. Penney (JCP 34.97, -1.58).DJ30 +37.81 NASDAQ +29.79 SP500 +9.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1738/785 mln/765 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2203/334 mln/697

11:30 am : A sudden flurry of selling has abruptly pulled stocks down from their recent trading range. The overall market is still up nicely for the session, but stocks are now at their lowest level in about 90 minutes.

The recent slip coincided with an upward push by oil prices, which recently made their way to a 0.5% gain. Oil prices have since handed back that gain so that they are now flat at $97.30 per barrel. DJ30 +45.15 NASDAQ +32.42 SP500 +9.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1850/662 mln/632 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2297/280 mln/564

11:00 am : The Volatility Index is down a sharp 10% as participants return to stocks after the losses of the past three sessions. Interest is broad, but the strongest buying has been seen in the basic material and financial sectors.

Materials stocks fell more than 4% during the course of the three previous sessions. The sector has rebounded to a 1.5% gain today. Even though all 30 names in the sector are in positive ground, CF Industries (CF 138.94, +4.92) and DuPont (DD 54.19, +1.15) have been primary leaders in the move.

As for financials, they fell nearly 4% over the past three sessions, but are up 1.4% today. Wells Fargo (WFC 32.66, +1.22), which was upgraded and added to a Conviction Buy List by analysts at Goldman Sachs, is a standout among financials. Fellow regional banks SunTrust (STI 30.86, +0.92), Fifth Third (FITB 14.84, +0.53), and KeyCorp (KEY 9.27, +0.24) are sharing in its strength. Of the 81 issues that make up the financial sector, only AIG (AIG 38.91, -1.52) is in the red. DJ30 +65.43 NASDAQ +36.73 SP500 +11.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1763/499 mln/663 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2255/225 mln/559

10:35 am : The dollar index is near session highs, but this is only pressuring select commodities this morning. April crude oil rose to overnight highs of $99.20 per barrel, but lost steam following news that Saudi Arabia was raising production. Supply shortfalls in Libya are still a concern though. On its pullback, crude fell into negative territory and new session lows of $96.17 per barrel. In current trade, crude is just below the unchanged line at $97.18 per barrel.

April natural gas trended lower from the overnight session and into the morning session. After hitting current session lows of $3.83 per MMBtu about 40 minutes before pit trading began, it rallied back into positive territory and just popped to new session highs of $3.90 per MMBtu a few minutes ago. Currently, it's up 0.5% at $3.89 per MMBtu.

Precious metals have been in the red all session as equity markets continue to trade near session highs. Gold is currently up 0.2% at $1405.40 per ounce, while silver is down 2% at $32.82 per ounce.DJ30 +58.85 NASDAQ +31.53 SP500 +10.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1768/350.1 mln/594 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2238/167.5 mln/512

10:00 am : Stocks recently started to chop along in a narrow range, but a better-than-expected Consumer Sentiment Survey has taken the broad market to a fresh morning high. The final Consumer Sentiment Survey for February from the University of Michigan came in at 77.5, which is not only better than the 75.1 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com, but the best reading since January 2008.

Advancing Sectors: Financial (+1.2%), Materials (+1.2%), Tech (+1.1%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.9%), Industrials (+0.6%), Energy (+0.6%), Telecom (+0.3%), Utilities (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +48.10 NASDAQ +25.46 SP500 +9.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/143 mln/748 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2105/90 mln/535

09:45 am : Strong buying in the first few minutes of trade has the major equity averages up nicely. Support is broad based, but consumer discretionary stocks and financial stocks have attracted the most interest -- both sectors are up about 1%.

Defensive-oriented issues are early laggards. Specifically, utilities and health care stocks are up 0.1% while consumer staples stocks and telecom stocks are up 0.2%.

Support for energy stocks is also lacking this morning. As such, the sector is only up 0.1%. The subdued action comes after a volatile few days for the sector. On Tuesday energy stocks collectively fell 0.7%, but rallied to a 1.9% gain on Wednesday. Yesterday they tumbled 1.4%. DJ30 +34.40 NASDAQ +20.13 SP500 +6.53

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.80. Stocks head into Friday facing their worst weekly loss in six months, but renewed support ahead of the open has helped prop up stock futures so that a strong start to this week's final session looks to be in order. Strength is underpinned by a positive tone among most major overseas markets and more stable oil prices. After climbing to a new two-year high above $103 per barrel less than 36 hours ago, oil futures prices currently trade at $97.35 per barrel with only a fractional gain. Corporate news flow has slowed, but it has been generally good -- Gap (GPS) and J.C. Penney (JCP) both posted upside earnings surprises and announced plans to add to their share repurchase plans. Data today featured a significant downward revision to fourth quarter GDP, which increased 2.8%, but early morning buying interest has been undeterred. Still to come is the final consumer sentiment reading for February from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.30. Germany's DAX is up 0.5% at the moment. Automakers BMW and Volkswagen have been primary leaders. Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY) has been a laggard following the firm's fourth quarter operating results. France's CAC has climbed to a 1.3% gain amid broad-based buying. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale have led the advance. EADS and Essilor International are the only two names in the 40-member Index that have failed to put together any kind of a gain. Britain's FTSE is up 0.9%. HSBC (HBC) has been a key source of strength, but Lloyds Group (LYG) has been a laggard following its six-month results through December. Metals and mining plays Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Anglo American continue to attract strong support. Fourth quarter GDP for the United Kingdom fell 0.6%, according to the preliminary reading. That follows a 0.5% decline in the third quarter. The Gfk Consumer Confidence Report for the United Kingdom came in at -28 for February. That follows a -29 reading for January.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei put together a 0.7% gain. It was led by Fast Retailing, Softbank, and Honda Motor (HMC). Fanuc Corp and CSK Corp were laggards. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite finished flat after a wavering during the session. Strength in Industrial & Commercial Bank and Citic Securities was offset by weakness in PetroChina (PTR) and China Petroleum (SNP). China's MNI Business Confidence Survey for February came in at 58.2 after a reading of 61.1 in January. Hong Kong's Hang Seng benefited from broad-based support. It settled with a 1.8% gain after 43 of its 45 members staged gains. Belle International and Wharf Holding were the only two names to log losses. Banking issues HSBC, Industrial & Commercial Bank, and China Construction Bank led the long list of advancing issues.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.30. Stock futures initially slipped in response to the second reading on fourth quarter GDP, but they have since stabilized. The second reading indicated that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% from October through December. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for growth of 3.3% after the advance reading showed growth of 3.2%. Personal consumption for the fourth quarter was revised downward to reflect growth of 4.1% after it had initially been reported as growth of 4.4%. Core personal consumption expenditures were revised upward to a 0.5% increase from a 0.4% increase in the advance reading. The GDP Price Index for the fourth quarter increased by 0.4% after the advance reading had reported a 0.3% increase. Economists surveyed by Brieifng.com had expected, on average, that the GDP Price Index would go unrevised.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.00. Stock futures have steadily worked their way higher overnight. They now point to a strong start to this week's final trading session. Stocks head into Friday with a week-to-date loss of 2.6%, though. That currently makes for the stock market's worst weekly performance since August. Renewed support this morning comes amid solid gains abroad. It has also helped that headlines out of the Middle East and North Africa have slowed, at least for now. Even though oil prices are up 0.6% to $97.90 per barrel, the energy component is still more than $5 below the heights that reached less than 36 hours ago. Corporate news this morning hasn't been terribly exciting, but nonetheless positive. More specifically, Autodesk (ADSK) posted an upside earnings surprise and issued in-line guidance. Applied Materials (AMAT) issued upside guidance after it posted an upside earnings surprise of its own. Gap (GPS) also bested earnings expectations then announced plans to put $2 billion into its share repurchase program and raise its dividend by 13%. CIGNA (CI) added $500 million to its share repurchase plan. As for data, the second reading on fourth quarter GDP is due at the bottom of the hour. The final February Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan follows at 9:55 AM ET.

06:28 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00.

06:28 am : Nikkei...10526.76...+74.10...+0.70%. Hang Seng...23012.37...+411.30...+1.80%.

06:28 am : FTSE...5934.39...+14.40...+0.20%. DAX...7163.54...+32.80...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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