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 Post subject: February 14th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +9.50
PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 12:48 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
Poor entry on the first trade of the day that was larger than what I normally trade as the first trade when volatility increases was almost a disaster after getting caught chasing. Luckily I was able to minimize the loss prior to my -2 point initial stop/loss being picked pocketed. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +9.50 points or $950.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=87&t=756. However, be advised that I'm frequently testing new trade signal methods or new trade management rules (e.g. stop/loss, trailing stops, profit targets, order types, time frames, workstation templates et cetera) after entry of existing profitable trade signal methods whenever market conditions change. Thus, adapting is a critical variable to my consistent profits along with preventing me from becoming complacent in my trading...this helps avoid trading account drawdowns.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=131&t=921

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks End Quietly After Obama's Budget Plan
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
February 14, 2011: 4:41 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended Monday's session mixed, as investors digested President Obama's 2012 budget proposal in a quiet trading session.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 5 points, or less than 0.1%, to 12,268; the S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 3.2 points, or 0.2%, to 1,332; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 7.7 points, or 0.3%, to 2,817.

Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) were among the top performers on the Dow, helped by a Chinese trade balance report that showed a 51% jump in imports last month for the world's now second-largest economy. Copper futures also climbed 2.1% during the session.

"Commodities, along with the long-term inflation story, continue be the primary support for this market," said Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) and Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) were the biggest losers on the blue-chip index.

President Obama unveiled his administration's $3.7 trillion budget proposal, which will cut the nation's long-term deficit by about $1.1 trillion over the next 10 years.

Traders however said there was little for Wall Street to react to in the White House's proposal.

"The budget is not going to have a meaningful impact on equities," said Michael James, senior equity trader at Wedbush Morgan Securities in Los Angeles. "A lot of this was known well in advance."

Stocks hit multi-year highs and ended the week strong on Friday, as investors cheered the resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

For the week, the three major indexes closed 1.5% higher. The Dow and the S&P ended Friday's session at their highest levels since mid-June 2008.

* Obama's wackiest budget cuts

Economy: With no reports on the domestic economy, stocks will probably have a "sideways performance," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners.

Congress will hold budget hearings throughout the week, and investors are likely to focus their attention on deficit levels.

Companies: Shares of Emergency Medical Services (EMS). plunged 11%, after private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice announced plans to buy the company for $3.2 billion.

FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500) and UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) shares fell 1% in aftermarket trading after FedEx lowered its third-quarter outlook, citing the bad weather that plagued most of the nation this year and higher fuel costs.

Shares of General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) rose 0.8%, after the industrial conglomerate said it would purchase an oil-and-gas engineering company for $2.8 billion.

Shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) rose 7% on heavy volume after Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) confirmed it was working on creating branded single-brew coffee products, but declined to say if it was working on a separate product or a partner. Green Mountain, with its Keurig cup system, is the largest producer of single-serve coffee products.
0:00 /2:42China's economy blazes ahead of Japan

Netflix (NFLX) shares rose 7%, after the company's stock was upgraded by two investment firms. Shares also got a boost after chipmaker Qualcomm (QCOM, Fortune 500) said at an industry conference that it planned to bring streaming video onto Google Android-enabled smart phones.

Internet radio site Pandora filed late Friday to raise up to $100 million in an initial public offering.

World markets: European stocks ended mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 was little changed, France's CAC 40 eased 0.1% and Germany's DAX rose 0.3%.

As expected, China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economy. According to government statistics, Japan's economy was valued at $5.47 trillion dollars in 2010, while China was at $5.88 trillion.

China's trade surplus shrunk to $6.5 billion in January, with exports rising 37.7% and imports rising 51%, according to news reports.

Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite jumped 2.4%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 1.3% and Japan's Nikkei gained 1.1%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro and the British pound, but eased versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for March delivery settled down 63 cents to $84.95 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $4.70 to $1,365.10 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged higher, pushing the yield down to 3.61% from 3.64% late Friday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : The absence of any real catalyst kept traders on the sidelines, but a big bounce by energy stocks led the broader market to a modest gain that has left it just a point shy of a 100% gain from its 2008 low.

Stocks chopped along listlessly in the early going. There were neither influential corporate announcements nor data to provide direction. Action abroad also failed to offer any kind of cue.

Although the broader market was mired in a relatively narrow range for most of the day, energy stocks surged. The sector settled with a 2.1% gain, even though energy commodity prices finished mixed -- March crude oil settled 0.9% lower at $84.81 per barrel, but March natural gas gained 0.5% to $3.93 per MMBtu. Oil and gas drillers (+3.0%) and refiners (+3.6%) were the sector's top performers.

Also natural resource plays, materials stocks found favor. The sector finished with a 1.0% gain in the face of a stronger dollar, which settled with a 0.2% gain after it had set a three-week high in the early going.

Every other major sectors was caught up in the broader market's lackluster trade. As a result, they finished mixed. Despite that, the S&P 500 was still able to muster a modest gain, which incrementally extended the stock market's two-year high. With today's gain, the S&P 500 is now up almost 100% from its March 2009 low just beneath 667.

Participation this session was paltry, though. Trading volume on the NYSE barely broke 800 million shares. That makes for the worst share volume total of this year.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+2.1%), Materials (+1.0%), Health Care (+0.3%), Tech (+0.2%), Financial (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Industrials (-0.1%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Telecom (-0.5%), Utilities (-0.8%) DJ30 -5.07 NASDAQ +7.74 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +3.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1439/1.97 bln/1231 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1652/815 mln/1329

3:30 pm : Commodities, save for the grains sector (-0.6%), finished higher today. Energy and precious metals (+0.9%) led the way higher for commodities.

March silver finished higher by 1.8% to $30.53 per ounce. April gold ended up 0.3% to $1365.10 per ounce. Both metals rallied to their best levels in late morning trade but spent the remainder of the session trading sideways below their respective highs.

March crude oil settled lower by 0.9% to $84.81 per barrel. It was a relatively uneventful session for crude oil until approximately 15 min left in pit trade, prices dropped below the $85 level to their lowest levels in 2 months. March natural gas finished higher by 0.5% to $3.93 per MMBtu.

March copper, which settled up 2% to $4.63 per pound, traded to a new intraday high at $4.64 earlier today. Strong import data in China helped copper prices move higher today.DJ30 -7.87 NASDAQ +6.72 SP500 +2.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1391/1.6 bln/1255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1592/561.3 mln/1385

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently broke free from its narrow trading range to set a fresh session high. The overall scope of the move and today's gain remain modest, though.

There weren't many corporate announcements ahead of the open and only a few are expected after the close, which is only an hour away. This evening's earnings announcements include the latest quarterly reports from Agilent (A 44.91, -0.11) and Marriott (MAR 41.06, -0.16), but tomorrow morning brings the latest from Marsh McLennan (MMC 28.79, -0.01) and Qwest (Q 7.43, +0.01). DJ30 +0.04 NASDAQ +6.69 SP500 +2.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1410/1.46 bln/1214 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1593/516 mln/1363

2:30 pm : Overall action remains mixed as the major equity averages continue to chop along in close proximity to the neutral line. Trade has been lackluster from the start.

Small-cap and mid-cap stocks are up with fairly decent gains, though. Specifically, the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is up 0.4% while the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is up 0.3%. Those gains have been enough to put both the Russell 2000 and the S&P 400 at their best levels in three years. DJ30 -12.30 NASDAQ +5.05 SP500 +1.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1392/1.36 bln/1237 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1576/472 mln/13888

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 has repeatedly extended two-year highs during the past two weeks. It closed Friday just off of that peak, which is near the 100% gain level from its 2009 low at 666.79.

However, the market has been unable to build on this momentum this session. Still, no selling interest has been evident. That has left the broader market to drift contently in a relatively narrow range today.

Trading around Treasuries remains quient, but they continue to hover near their best levels of the session. Today's buying has flattened the spread between 2-year and 10-year Notes to 277.3 points, which is a level not seen since the end of January. Meanwhile, the spread between the 10-year Note and the 30-year Bond is little changed at 105.3 points.DJ30 -13.70 NASDAQ +5.19 SP500 +1.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1434/1.26 bln/1170 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1561/435 mln/1383

1:30 pm : Energy stocks have encountered little resistance in their climb today. The sector is now up 1.9%. Meanwhile, the broader market is barely up 0.2%.

Energy's ascent comes in the face of flat energy prices. Specifically, oil prices are unchanged at $85.58 per barrel while natural gas prices are unchanged at $3.91 per MMBtu. DJ30 -8.44 NASDAQ +8.20 SP500 +2.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1440/1.16 bln/1144 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1569/404 mln/1348

1:00 pm : The major equity averages have spent the entire session chopping along in mixed fashion without much direction. However, natural resource stocks and semiconductor stocks have benefited from a strong bid.

A dearth of corporate news and an absence of data left participants without any real trading cues this morning. Action abroad offered little direction, too, since Europe's bourses were mixed in the wake of strong gains in Asia after it was speculated that China's upcoming CPI number wouldn't be too hot.

The lack of catalysts has kept plenty of traders on the sidelines and left stocks to trade largely under their own volition. Overall action has been mostly muddled all session.

However, energy issues and basic materials plays have made enviable bounces. Those two sectors are up 1.7% and 1.3%, respectively, as participants show favor for natural resource plays in the face of a stronger dollar, which is currently up 0.2% after it set a fresh three-week high this morning. Strength within both sectors is broad.

Natural resource plays have put quite a distance between themselves and the rest of the market. For instance, tech is the next best performing sector, but it is only up 0.3%. Almost all of that is owed to a 1.1% gain by semiconductor stocks, as measured by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. DJ30 -6.77 NASDAQ +8.51 SP500 +2.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1470/1.07 bln/1124 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1564/367 mln/1338

12:30 pm : Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at session highs, but their gains remain modest. The Dow has yet to poke into positive territory.

Treasuries have had a relatively quiet session so far. Nonetheless, the benchmark 10-year Note is up slightly so that its yield has moved closer to 3.60%. DJ30 -6.85 NASDAQ +8.93 SP500 +1.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1433/975 mln/1121 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1507/335 mln/1373

12:00 pm : The broader market remains mired in mixed trade, making for a lackluster session.

Bank stocks have had a quiet session after surging 1.8% this past Friday. Regional banks had been big drivers of that move, but they have pulled back today. As such, Regions Financial (RF 7.88, -0.14), BB&T Corp (BBT 28.84, -0.28), and SunTrust Banks (STI 32.30, -0.23) have been laggards.

As for the overall financial sector, it is currently down 0.1%. DJ30 -16.84 NASDAQ +6.72 SP500 +0.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1379/870 mln/1164 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1468/300 mln/1376

11:30 am : The broader market has made its way back to the neutral line. Meanwhile, the energy sector has ascended to a fresh session high, where it sports a 1.3% gain. Strength in the sector has been broad in that equipment plays, drillers, and refiners are all up in excess of 1%. As a collective group, energy stocks are now up more than 10% this year.

Strength among energy issues this sesison comes even though oil prices are only up a narrow 0.1% to $85.65 per barrel at the moment. DJ30 -20.20 NASDAQ +4.83 SP500 -0.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1323/745 mln/1187 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1382/262 mln/1447

11:00 am : Stocks recently began to chop their way higher, but then quickly rolled over in response to a flurry of selling activity. Overall action remains mixed.

Natural resource plays have benefited from a strong bid, though. As such, the materials sector is up 0.9% and the energy sector is up 1.0%. Among basic materials issues, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 55.86, +2.34) and U.S. Steel (X 60.57, +1.65) are primary leaders. Diamond Offshore (DO 72.49, +2.58) and Cameron International (CAM 58.62, +2.08) are leading the energy sector.

Tech, up 0.1%, is the only other sector in positive territory. It continues to benefit from strength in the semiconductor space; semiconductor stocks are collectively up 1.3%. DJ30 -30.46 NASDAQ +3.15 SP500 -1.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1413/580 mln/1074 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1379/213 mln/1397

10:35 am : The dollar index has pulling back from session highs of 78.873, but remains in positive territory. Despite the strength in the index, most of the commodities in the CRB Index are trading in positive territory, lead by the energy complex (+1.7%) and precious metals (+1%).

Precious metals moved higher after pit trading opened this morning, as April gold pushed into positive territory, to current session highs of $1366.60 per ounce, and March silver extended gains to current session highs of $30.44 per ounce. Gold is now up 0.3% at $1365.80 per ounce, while silver is 2% higher at $30.60 per ounce.

March crude oil was back near overnight lows of $85.13 around 30 minutes before pit trading began. However, it's since gained some strength and extended gains when pit trading opened, pushing it to current session highs of $86.37 per barrel. Crude is now up 0.9% at $86.36 per barrel.

March natural gas traded lower overnight and into the morning session. Around 8:00am ET (note pit trade opens at 9:00am ET), natural has rallied off morning lows of $3.86, pushing into positive territory over the next hour. In recent trade, the energy component hit new session highs of $3.93 per MMBtu and is currently back at that level.DJ30 -20.47 NASDAQ +7.97 SP500 +0.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1363/422.9 mln/1079 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1362/160.6 mln/1389

10:00 am : Broader market trade is still mixed, but semiconductor stocks continue to rise. Led by NVIDIA (NVDA 24.01, +0.54), the group is now up 1.2%.

Despite strength among semiconductor issues, the tech sector is only up 0.2%. That's mostly due to weakness in shares of Tellabs (TLAB 5.63, -0.16) and eBay (EBAY 33.97, -0.54).

Defensive-oriented issues like telecom and utilities have come under a rather pronounced spell of selling pressure in recent trade. Those sectors are down 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.8%), Materials (+0.7%), Tech (+0.1%), Industrials (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Financial
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.9%), Telecom (-0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.1%)DJ30 -25.77 NASDAQ +4.07 SP500 -0.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1241/172 mln/1079 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1298/93 mln/1355

09:45 am : The major equity averages are mixed in the first few minutes of trade. However, semiconductor stocks are showing early strength, which has helped the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jump out to a 0.8% gain.

The lack of direction in the early going has kept many traders on the sidelines. In turn, share volume in the opening minutes of trade has been underwhelming. DJ30 -30.04 NASDAQ +2.10 SP500 -0.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1062/55 mln/1114 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1144/42 mln/1067

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Stock futures point to a flat start for today's trade. The lack of direction comes after stocks netted another gain last week that left the broad market at its best level in more than 30 months. The backdrop this morning has featured mixed action in Europe after Asia's major equity averages staged strong gains in response to speculation that upcoming inflationary readings will prove to be cooler than feared. Corporate announcements have been limited and no economic data have been posted, leaving premarket participants with few other cues to follow. The dollar set a three-week high against a basket of competing currencies earlier this morning, but it has since eased back to a 0.3% gain. The greenback's pullback has coincided with a modest upturn by commodities, which now have the CRB Commodity Index up 0.2%. As for Treasuries, they have gradually drifted down from the flat line to fractional losses.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50. Commodities are somewhat mixed this morning. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is up just 0.1%. Among its more widely tracked components, oil prices are down 0.1% to $85.50 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices are down 0.8% to $3.88 per MMBtu. Gold prices have fallen 0.1% to $1358.80 per ounce, but silver prices have advanced 0.8% to $30.22 per ounce. Mixed action among commodities comes amid another bounce by the greenback, which currently sports a 0.4% lead over a collection of competing currencies.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. Futures for the S&P 500 have slipped to morning lows, but only trail fair value by a modest margin. Meanwhile, action in Europe remains mixed. Germany's DAX set a new three-year high earlier this morning, but it has since eased off of that mark so that it trades with a 0.3% gain. Man SE, Linde AG, and BASF have been primary sources of support. In contrast, Allianz SE, Volkswagen, and Deutsche Bank (DB) have been sources of weakness. France's CAC fractionally extended its two-year high earlier, but has since slipped to a 0.1% loss. Axa (AXA), Total (TOT), and Vivendi have been the heaviest drags, but Air Liquide and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) have offered some support to the broader market. Britain's FTSE has fallen to a 0.2% loss after it failed to hold an opening advance that made for an incrementally improved two-year high. Heavyweights HSBC (HBC), Lloyds Group (LYG), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) have hampered recent action and more than offset strength in Standard Charter, BP Plc (BP), and Xstrata (XTA). Data out of the eurozone indicate that industrial production during December fell 0.1% after a 1.2% increase in November.

Action in Asia was very strong overnight. Financial media reports attribute the strength to speculation that China's upcoming CPI reading will not be as high as what has been feared. A smaller-than-expected CPI figure could quell concerns about inflationary threats and, in turn, calls for tighter monetary policy, which could crimp economic growth. Already released, though, are data that indicate China's trade balance for January came in at $6.5 billion, which is down from $13.1 billion in December. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed its latest round of trade with a 2.5% gain, which is its best single-session move in two months. All 10 of its major sectors moved higher. Financials led the way with a 3.3% advance. PetroChina (PTR), Industrial & Commercial Bank, and China Life Insurance were individual leaders, though. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.3% after it set a one-month low this past Friday. China Mobile, Bank of China, and Industrial & Commercial Bank were primary drivers of the move. Hutchison Whampoa was a notable laggard. Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.1% to set a nine-month high. Fanuc Corp, Honda Motor (HMC), and Softbank were key leaders. Fast Retailing faltered and, as a result, fell more than 1% to settle below its 50-day moving average, but just above its 200-day moving average.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. Stock futures are flat at the moment. The lack of direction comes amid a dearth of corporate announcements and mixed action abroad. The earnings calendar has started to thin, but merger and acquisition activity continues to move along. Among the most recent announcements, EchoStar (SATS) plans to acquire Hughes Communications (HUGH) for $60.70 per share. Although the takeover price actually represents a discout of about 2% from where HUGH closed trade this past Friday, the price marks a substantial premium over where the stock had traded prior to initial takeover rumors. Hercules Offshore (HERO) announced that it will acquire certain assets from Seahawk Drilling (HAWK), which plans to file for bankruptcy. Action in Europe has given little direction to premarket participants; the major bourses there are mixed in the wake of robust overnight gains in Asia. Treasuries are flat this morning. However, the greenback continues to gain ground against competing currencies. That has the Dollar Index up 0.5% to a new three-week high. No single dose of data is on tap for today.

06:45 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30.

06:45 am : Nikkei...10725.54...+119.90...+1.10%. Hang Seng...23121.06...+292.10...+1.30%.

06:45 am : FTSE...6051.20...-11.80...-0.20%. DAX...7388.56...+17.30...+0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
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