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 Post subject: February 7th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points -4.00
PostPosted: Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:57 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
Today was a losing trading day but I did keep the trading very controlled. However, although not an excuse...it's tax preparation time for me and I spent a large part of the trading session trying to find missing tax documents. Simply, I missed several profitable trade opportunities and may miss an entire trading day this week as a personal day off to finish my tax preparation. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: -4.00 points or ($400.00) dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=87&t=750. However, be advised that I'm frequently testing new trade signal methods or new trade management rules (e.g. stop/loss, trailing stops, profit targets, order types, time frames, workstation templates et cetera) after entry of existing profitable trade signal methods whenever market conditions change. Thus, adapting is a critical variable to my consistent profits along with preventing me from becoming complacent in my trading...this helps avoid trading account drawdowns.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=131&t=921

-----------------------------

Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Rally On Merger Monday
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter
February 7, 2011: 6:16 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Investors started the week in high spirits Monday, welcoming several major mergers as signs that Big Business is more bullish about the economy.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was up 69 points, or 0.6%; the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 8 points, or 0.6%; and the Nasdaq (COMP) gained 15 points, or 0.5%.

The biggest deals of the day include AOL's (AOL) acquisition of news blog The Huffington Post for $315 million, and a merger between oil drillers Ensco (ESV) and Pride International (PDE).

The diversified manufacturing company Danaher (DHR, Fortune 500) will also buy medical device maker Beckman Coulter (BEC) for $6.8 billion.

"Investors are coming in with the attitude, if these business leaders are confident enough to buy other companies, then I'm confident enough to buy stocks," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with Harris Private Bank in Chicago.

Shares of Pride and Beckman Coulter both surged Monday, following the news.

Investors welcomed the Danaher-Beckman Coulter deal as a strong sign for the biomedical industry. Danaher's $5.8 million offer valued Beckman Coulter at a 45% premium.

"We haven't seen too many health care deals, particularly ones done at a premium to market value," Ablin said. "Perhaps this could be a spark to get that sector moving."

Meanwhile, the AOL-Huffington Post deal boosted shares of other media companies. The New York Times (NYT) climbed 2.5% and Gannett (GCI, Fortune 500) shares rose 2.8%.
0:00 /4:45Huffington: Why I sold to AOL

Economy: In a speech to more than 200 members of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Monday, President Obama made the case for ramping up spending on education and infrastructure to promote economic growth. The speech is seen as another sign of the thawing relationship between the administration and business community.

A report by the Federal Reserve showed consumer credit rose more than expected in December, climbing by a seasonally adjusted $6.1 billion in December, after increasing by $2 billion the previous month.

Companies: In addition to some major deals, company earnings were also market movers.

Humana (HUM, Fortune 500) fell 3.1% after the health benefits provider reported fourth-quarter earnings that missed analysts' expectations. The company said it earned 63 cents per share, versus a forecast of 81 cents.

Hasbro (HAS) said its fourth-quarter earnings fell to 99 cents per share from $1.09 a year ago, but its shares rose 1.9%.

U.S.-listed shares of Nokia (NOK) were up 2.1% following reports that a management shake-up is brewing at the Finnish cellphone company.

Sysco (SYY, Fortune 500) said its second-quarter earnings fell 3.8% due to higher commodities prices, sending shares of the food company falling 6.1%.

World markets: European stocks finished the day higher. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked up 0.9%, the DAX in Germany rose 0.9% and France's CAC 40 gained 1.1%.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei ended nearly 0.5% higher, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 1.5%. Shanghai remained closed for lunar new year celebrations.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the British pound and the euro, but rose against the Japanese yen.

Oil for March delivery fell $1.55 to settle at $87.48 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery fell 80 cents to settle at $1,348.20 an ounce on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Three-month copper futures hit $10,160 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, a record high.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.65% from 3.58% late Friday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:25 pm : Another round of broad buying drove stocks to new two-year highs. Share volume was unimpressive, though.

Stocks made a quick move higher in the early going. Strong gains by Europe's bourses had helped to provide a positive backdrop in the absence of any domestic data. Merger and acquisition activity also acted as a boon as many thought it an encouraging sign that deals are being made even as stocks trade at their best levels in more than two years.

Pride International (PDE 39.80, +5.41) will be purchased with a mix of cash and stock for $41.60 per share, a premium of about 21% over its closing price last week, by Ensco (ESV 52.13, -2.28). That announcement helped stoke buying in other offshore drillers and exploratory plays.

Beckman Coulter (BEC 82.65, +7.48) will be acquired with cash by Danaher (DHR 49.03, +1.05) for $83.50 per share, a premium of about 11% over its closing price last week.

AOL (AOL 21.19, -0.75) announced it will acquire Huffington Post for $315 million in a mostly cash transaction. The deal comes after AOL had announced better-than-expected earnings last week.

Financials were this session's best performers; they climbed 1.5%. The move was largely led by multi-line insurers like Loews Corp (L 43.27, +1.87), which posted an upside earnings surprise for its latest quarter.

Humana (HUM 58.74, -1.80) was also out with earnings, but its results came short of the consensus forecast. An improved outlook from the firm failed to offset the offense.

While buying lifted the broader market to its best level since mid-2008, there wasn't a lot of share volume behind the move. In fact, share volume on the NYSE failed to break 900 million.

Today's only piece of data was released late in the afternoon. It indicated that consumer credit during December increased by $6.09 billion, which is far more than the $2.50 billion increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Consumer credit for November had increased by $2.02 billion.

An appetite for risk had initially helped to renew pressure against Treasuries so that yields climbed to levels not seen since May, but they were able to rebound. The benchmark 10-year Note still finished with a fractional loss, but the 30-year Bond scored its first gain in a week.

The dollar finished flat after it had staged gains in the previous three sessions. It had been on pace for another gain, but fell in afternoon trade.

Advancing Sectors: Financial (+1.5%), Industrials (+1.0%), Utilities (+0.7%), Tech (+0.6%), Energy (+0.6%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%), Materials (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.2%), Telecom (-0.2%) DJ30 +69.48 NASDAQ +14.69 NQ100 +0.5% R2K +1.0% SP400 +0.9% SP500 +8.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1803/1.77 bln/863 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2073/88 mln/917

3:30 pm : Commodities were, once again, mixed on the session. Industrials (+1.5%) led by a 4.3% rally in cotton, were the largest advancing sector. Energy (-1.5%), led by a 4.5% decline in natural gas, was the largest declining factor.

March natural gas fell 4.5% to finish at $4.11 per MMBtu. Prices traded to their lowest levels since late Dec at $4.101 on forecasts for milder weather in the weeks ahead. March crude oil settled lower by 1.7% to $87.48 per barrel. Easing tensions in Egypt weighed on prices throughout the day and forced crude oil to its lowest levels, at $87.42 per barrel, in over a week.

It was a relatively uneventful session for precious metals. April gold prices closed near flat at $1348.20 per ounce. March silver finished higher by 1.4% to $29.35 per ounce. DJ30 +65.20 NASDAQ +12.62 SP500 +6.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1733/1.5 bln/919 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1992/639.8 mln/977

3:00 pm : Stocks have surrendered a chunk of their gains in recent trade. There is no clear catalyst to account for the slip, but it coincides with a move by Treasuries to their session high.

December consumer credit, the only item on the economic calendar, was just released. It showed an increase of $6.09 billion, which is far more than the $2.50 billion increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Consumer credit for November was revised upward to $2.02 billion from $1.34 billion. DJ30 +66.64 NASDAQ +12.30 SP500 +7.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1726/1.33 bln/915 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2030/585 mln/938

2:30 pm : The 30-year Bond has caught a bid in recent trade. It is now up six ticks after it had been in the red for the entire morning and early afternoon. The benchmark 10-year Note is still down a few ticks, however. Their yields stand at 4.72% and 3.65%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has turned lower. The greenback had been up nicely against competing currencies earlier today, but it is now flat. Heading into this session the dollar had advanced for three straight days.

Stocks continue to sport strong gains. However, each of the major averages is now at the lower end of its afternoon trading range. DJ30 +74.89 NASDAQ +21.27 SP500 +9.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1845/1.20 bln/787 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2134/528 mln/828

2:00 pm : The stock market has spent the past couple of hours trading in a narrow range, which has allowed this session's gains to consolidate. Though the broader market has become range bound, financials have made a modest move to fresh session highs. The sector is now up 1.6%, which is double what the broader market has achieved. Financials have been out in front of the stock market for virtually the entire session.DJ30 +85.64 NASDAQ +22.65 SP500 +10.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1843/1.12 bln/780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2140/485 mln/794

1:30 pm : Telecom is the only major sector that has failed to stage any kind of a gain. The sector's 0.2% loss stems from weakness in integrated plays like AT&T (T 27.85, -0.12) and Verizon (VZ 36.10, -0.21). Verizon confirmed that the iPhone 4, from Apple (AAPL 353.05, +6.55), will by available at more than 2,000 Verizon Wireless stores and Apple retail stores.DJ30 +83.86 NASDAQ +24.35 SP500 +10.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1871/1.04 bln/734 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2148/450 mln/764

1:00 pm : Unwilling to fight the stock market's upward trend, participants continue to push into equities and shun Treasuries. In the process, all three major equity averages have set new two-year highs while yields on Treasuries have climbed to multi-month highs.

Broad-based buying in the first few minutes of trade helped stocks add quickly to opening gains. Financials didn't take long to take a lead over the other sectors, though. They are currently up 1.5%. Loews Corp (L 43.20, +1.80) is a leader in the group following its upside earnings surprise.

Humana (HUM 59.33, -1.21) had an earnings report out, too. However, its earnings came short of what had been expected. That has overshadowed the firm's improved forecast. Analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded Humana peer UnitedHealth (UNH 42.15, -0.34), but upgraded Aetna (AET 37.20, -0.22).

There were a few corporate deals over the weekend, but the acquisition of Pride International (PDE 39.87, +5.48) by Ensco (ESV 51.93, -2.48) for $41.60 per share in cash and stock has helped bolster support for other offshore drillers and exploratory plays. The takeover price represents a 21% premium over PDE's closing price from last week.

In other merger and acquisition activity, Beckman Coulter (BEC 82.49, +7.32) will be acquired with cash by Danaher (DHR 49.56, +1.58) for $83.50 per share, a premium of about 11% over its closing price last week.

Favor for riskier issues has helped small-cap stocks push the Russell 2000 to a 1.3% gain. That puts the Small-Cap Index at a new three-year high. Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite are all up less than 1%, but still up markedly to their best level in more than two years.

Amid the broad interest in stocks, Treasuries have extended their descent to a sixth session. The prolonged selling effort had the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note flirting with 3.70% earlier today. It hasn't touched that mark since May.DJ30 +77.84 NASDAQ +24.05 SP500 +10.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1868/972 mln/718 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2141/420 mln/773

12:30 pm : Stocks have drifted off of their sesion highs, but gains remain impressive. Barring any kind of a sell-off, the Dow is on pace for its sixth straight gain, including an incremental move higher in the middle of last week. During that span the blue chip average has advanced 3.0%, which makes for its best six-session performance since early December.

United Technologies (UTX 83.73, +1.21) is currently a leader in the Dow. It has advanced 2.8% during the course of the six most recent sessions. In contrast, Kraft (KFT 30.81, -0.38) is a laggard among blue chips and up 0.9% during the last six sessions. DJ30 +80.57 NASDAQ +23.48 SP500 +10.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1858/882 mln/714 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2157/375 mln/748

12:00 pm : Natural gas prices have been driven deeper into negative territory so that they now trade with a 3.3% loss at $4.17 per MMBtu. Oil prices also remain under pressure as they contend with a 0.8% loss at $88.35 per barrel.

Despite the pullback in energy prices, energy stocks have collevtively gained 1.0% this session. Pride International (PDE 39.77, +5.38) is a standout in the space following news that it will be acquired by Ensco (ESV 51.75, -2.66) in a cash and stock mix for $41.60 per share, or a premium of about 21% over its closing price last week. News of the acquisition has stoked interest in shares of other offshore drillers and exploratory plays like Seahawk Drilling (HAWK 7.62, +0.62) and Atwood Oceanics (ATW 42.88, +2.08). DJ30 +83.87 NASDAQ +23.77 SP500 +10.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1895/790 mln/677 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2224/340 mln/670

11:30 am : Favor for riskier issues has helped small-cap stocks push the Russell 2000 to a 1.4% gain so that it outperforms the benchmark S&P 500. At the moment, some 85% of issues in the small-cap Index are in higher ground.

Silicon Graphics (SGI 14.71, +1.46) is a primary leader in the group. Its surge today comes after it pulled back about 3% during the prior session following a 26% spike this past Thursday. Its overall strength in recent trade has the stock at a three-year high. DJ30 +86.13 NASDAQ +24.91 SP500 +10.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1897/685 mln/663 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2253/300 mln/622

11:00 am : Following a brief pause, stocks have extended today's advance to a fresh session high. Financials are still out in front; they now sport a 1.4% gain.

Financials have benefited from a rather broad bid that has sent more than 90% of the sector's members to a gain. Multi-line insurers are in the best shape -- they've collectively gained 3.1%, so far, today.

The S&P 500 Financial Sector is up little more than 5% this year. At its current level the sector trades at 15.0x trailing earnings and 12.8x expected earnings. During the past five years the financial sector has traded with a weekly average P/E ratio of about 20.4x trailing earnings.DJ30 +92.71 NASDAQ +24.93 SP500 +11.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1913/566 mln/588 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2274/250 mln/576

10:35 am : The Dollar Index is 0.3% higher and near current session highs of 78.350. Despite this strength, most commodities in the CRB Commodity Index are trading higher.

Energy commodities are mixed, but is the worst performing segment in the CRB Index with natural gas futures down 3.2%. RBOB Gasoline is 0.4% higher, while crude is 0.4% lower and heating oil is 0.1% lower.

March crude oil fell into negative territory about two hours ago and hit session lows of $88.11 per barrel at the top of the hour. Currently, it's down 0.4% at $88.68 per barrel. March natural gas has been in negative territory all session and hit new session lows of $4.15 per MMBtu about an hour ago after quickly selling off about 2%. It's currently down 3.2% at $4.17 per MMBtu.

In other commodities, cotton futures are leading the CRB Index with 2.7% in gains on strong China demand, a current near-term theme, and strong India sales. The Cotton Corp. of India said cotton sales grew by 5.7% in the season from October 1. March sugar prices are 1.4% higher at 33.10 cents/lb on continued supply concerns

Precious metals are modestly higher this morning with April gold just above the unchanged line at $1350.70 per ounce and March silver 0.5% higher at $29.21 per ounce.DJ30 +73.49 NASDAQ +19.37 SP500 +9.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1852/436.4 mln/602 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2170/194.2 mln/603

10:00 am : The broader market has eased back a bit in recent action, but it continues to trade with a solid gain.

However, financials remain at session highs; the sector now sports a 0.9% gain. Loews Corp (L 43.70, +2.27) is a leader in the group following its upside earnings surprise.

In contrast to financials, telecom has dug deeper into negative territory. The sector is now down 0.5%. It is in the worst shape of any major sector.

Advancing Sectors: Financial (+0.9%), Industrials (+0.8%), Materials (+0.8%), Tech (+0.7%), Energy (+0.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%), Utilities (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.5%), Health Care (-0.1%)DJ30 +53.40 NASDAQ +12.89 SP500 +6.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1743/275 mln/641 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2020/130 mln/697

09:45 am : Stocks are up nicely in the first few minutes of trade. The opening advance has taken all three major equity averages to new two-year highs.

Strength is broad based, but defensive-oriented issues like health care (-0.1%) and telecom (-0.3%) are lagging. Energy (+0.8%), industrials (+0.8%), and Financials (+0.7%) are in the best shape.

Strength among stocks has put added pressure on Treasuries, which are down for the sixth straight session. That has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note moving closer to 3.70%, which hasn't been touched since May. DJ30 +57.41 NASDAQ +13.68 SP500 +6.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1702/190 mln/629 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2012/95 mln/651

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Stock futures suggest that this week's trade will start slightly higher. Strength among Europe's major bourses has acted as a positive backdrop in the absence of data and the dearth of earnings reports this morning. There have been a couple of merger-and-acquisition items of interest. In particular, Pride International (PDE) confirmed that it will be acquired by Ensco (ESV) with a mix of cash and stock for $41.60 per share, or a premium of about 21% over its closing price last week. Beckman Coulter (BEC) will be acquired with cash by Danaher (DHR) for $83.50 per share, or a premium of about 11% over its closing price last week. Outside of equities, the dollar is up 0.3% against a collection of competing currencies. Meanwhile, commodities are mixed, and Treasuries continue to grapple with sellers.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50. Commodities are a bit mixed at the moment. Specifically, oil prices are down 0.6% to $88.50 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices are down 2.5% to $4.20 per MMBtu. Precious metals are in better shape with gold sporting a 0.3% gain at $1351.90 per ounce and silver up 0.6% to $29.24 per ounce. Collective action among commodities has the CRB Commodity Index up 0.2%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.80. Futures for the S&P 500 have benefited from a bit of buying in recent activity, but strength still isn't as pronounced as it is in Europe. Germany's DAX is up 0.8%, which puts it at a new three-year high. It is currently led by Adidas, Infineon Tech, and BMW. HeidelbergCement is a laggard. France's CAC set a fractionally improved two-year high earlier this morning. It has since eased back a bit, but broad-based buying has helped it hold on to an enviable 0.9% gain. Total (TOT), Carrefour, and Pernod-Ricard are the only three names in the 40-member Index that have failed to find higher ground. Societe Generale is presently a primary leader in the advance. Natural resource plays like Rio Tinto (RIO), BP Plc (BP), Xstrata, and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) have helped lift Britain's FTSE to a 0.7% gain. Vodafone (VOD) has been left behind, however.

In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite remains closed for holiday observance. Hong Kong's Hang Seng re-opened for trade, though; it fell to a 1.5% loss. HSBC (HBC), Esprit Holdings, Cathay Pacific Air, and Hang Seng Bank were the only four issues in the 45-member Index to make gains. Heavyweights CNOOC (CEO), PetroChina (PTR), China Mobile, and China Construction Bank hampered action the most. Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.5%. Credit Saison and KDDI Corp were a couple of key leaders while TDK Corp and Sony Corp logged losses. As for data, Japan reported that its Leading Index for December came in at 101.4, up from 100.6 in November.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Stock futures followed Europe's major bourses higher earlier this morning. They have since drifted off of their best levels, although action in Europe remains decidedly positive. A renewed bid for dollar has the pulled the Dollar Index out of the red to a narrow gain, which puts it on pace for its fourth straight advance after falling in seven of the eight preceding sessions. The pace of earnings announcements is slow this morning. Among the more notable reports, Humana (HUM) missed earnings expectations, but issued a strong forecast. Loews Corp (L) posted an upside surprise. As for other corporate activity, Beckman Coulter (BEC) will be acquired with cash by Danaher (DHR) for $83.50 per share, or a premium of about 11% over its closing price last week. The only item on today's economic calendar is the December Consumer Credit report, which is due at 3:00 PM ET.

06:42 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.30.

06:42 am : Nikkei...10592.04...+48.50...+0.50%. Hang Seng...23553.59...-355.40...-1.50%.

06:42 am : FTSE...6041.92...+44.50...+0.70%. DAX...7278.29...+62.00...+0.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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