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 Post subject: February 4th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +7.40
PostPosted: Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:54 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
I'm very disappointed in my trading day. I missed several profitable trading opportunities due to not being properly prepared to followed the outlined trading plan I had to exploit the opening gap. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +7.40 points or $740.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=87&t=749. However, be advised that I'm frequently testing new trade signal methods or new trade management rules (e.g. stop/loss, trailing stops, profit targets, order types, time frames, workstation templates et cetera) after entry of existing profitable trade signal methods whenever market conditions change. Thus, adapting is a critical variable to my consistent profits along with preventing me from becoming complacent in my trading...this helps avoid trading account drawdowns.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=131&t=921

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (Youtube) - U.S. Stocks Advance as Jobless Rate Drops to 9%



Image CNNMoney.com - Wall Street Books Gains For The Week
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ben Rooney, staff reporter
February 4, 2011: 5:24 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks rose near the end of choppy session Friday, ending the week with gains of more than 2%, as investors looked past a muddy report on the U.S. job market.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 30 points, or 0.2%, to close at 12,092. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained nearly 4 points, or 0.3%, to end at 13,11. The Nasdaq (COMP) added 15 points, or 0.5%, to 2,769.

For the week, the Dow gained nearly 2.3%, while the S&P 500 was up 2.7%. The Nasdaq added better than 3% over the last five trading days.

Stocks made a late-session advance after bouncing between small gains and losses for most of the day following mixed signals from the government's all-important jobs report.

The Labor Department said employers added 36,000 jobs in January, which fell far short of expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9% -- down from 9.4% the month before.

Economists had forecast a gain of 149,000 jobs in January, but many analysts said severe winter weather hindered hiring last month.

"There's a bit of confusion about what these numbers actually mean," said Brian Gendreau, market strategist at Financial Network. "And it comes in the context of many reports indicating a strengthening economy and job market."

Friday's jobs data came after encouraging reports on private sector payrolls and weekly jobless claims earlier this week. And monthly sales figures from retailers and automakers came in better than expected.

A robust reading on the manufacturing sector on Tuesday sent stocks soaring above two key psychological barriers: 12,000 on the Dow and 1,300 on the S&P 500.

In addition, quarterly reports from a range of big U.S. companies have shown continued gains in earnings and surprisingly strong revenue growth.

After 11 days of violent turmoil in Egypt, traders said the market has priced in the geopolitical risk associated with the anti-government protests there.

"To the extent it doesn't deteriorate significantly, I think investors have come to the conclusion that Egypt is not an immediate concern," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller, Tabak and Co.

Stocks ended higher Thursday, as investors digested comments about the economy from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke -- who said a weak job market continues to weigh on the recovery.

* Video - World Bank: U.S. jobs will come back

Companies: Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) slipped nearly 2% after allegations late Thursday that the investment bank was warned about Bernard Madoff's Ponzi scheme years prior to its collapse, but did nothing to stop it.

Early Friday, Aetna (AET, Fortune 500) also reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and boosted its dividend, sending shares of the company 12% higher.

* Consumers spend like it's 2006 - The Buzz

Shares of JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) surged 23%, after the communications equipment maker logged quarterly earnings late Thursday that widely beat expectations.

Food company Tyson (TSN, Fortune 500) reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that topped expectations. Shares were up 6% in mid-day trading.

After the market close Thursday, Las Vegas Sands (LVS, Fortune 500) posted disappointing earnings, sending shares of the casino company 8% lower. Other casino stocks, including Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and MGM Resorts International (MGM, Fortune 500), shared the pain. Shares of Wynn fell 2%, while MGM shares slumped 1.4%.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 climbed 0.2%, the DAX in Germany ticked up 0.3% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.2%.

Japan's Nikkei rallied 1.1%. Other Asian markets, including Shanghai and Hong Kong, remained closed for the lunar new year holiday.

* Wall Street's biggest paydays

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for March delivery fell $1.62 to $88.88 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery was down $3.30 to $1,349.70 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.58%, from 3.54% late Thursday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : The January jobs report did little to spark traders into action today. That made for a largely lackluster session full of sideways chop, until a late bit of buying helped the three major equity averages set fresh two-year closing highs.

The only piece of data on today's calendar was the official payrolls report for for January. Nonfarm payrolls reportedly increased by 36,000, but that is considerably less than the 148,000 additions that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Private payrolls increased by only 50,000, which is far from the 163,000 additions had been widely expected.

However, the headline unemployment rate fell sharply to 9.0% from 9.4% in December. It had been expected to increase to 9.5%. Many attribute the drop in the unemployment rate to changes in prevailing population estimates and inclement weather.

Average hourly earnings made a surprise increase of 0.4%, which is the strongest monthly spike since 2008. The threat of wage inflation stirred a specter related to broader inflation, which acted as an additional catalyst in the five-day slide suffered by Treasuries -- the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note hit a multi-month high of 3.65% today.

Stocks were without clear of leadership for the third straight session. Despite that, the broader market still mustered another gain, which propped the S&P 500 up by 2.7%. That makes for the stock market's best weekly performance in nine weeks.

Although broad market action was largely lackluster, semiconductor stocks has an impressive session. The group spiked 2.1% and is already up 12.5% year-to-date. Strength among semiconductor plays made tech (+0.8%) the strongest sector of the session and gave the Nasdaq a lead over its counterparts.

There weren't a whole lot of earnings to digest, but news of an upside earnings surprise, upside guidance, and a dividend hike from Aetna (AET 37.42, +4.15) helped shares of the health care benefits provider stage strongest single-session surge in more than a year. The stock settled at its best level in 27 months.

Lack of motivation among investors made for unimpressive share volume once again. Specifically, trading volume on the NYSE failed to exceed 1 billion shares for the third straight session.

The Dollar Index advanced 0.3% for its third straight gain. It still ended logged a fractional loss for the week, though.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%), Consumer Staples (+0.5%), Health Care (+0.5%), Industrials (+0.3%)
Unchanged: Financial, Materials, Telecom
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.6%), Energy (-0.3%)DJ30 +29.89 NASDAQ +15.42 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +0.2% SP400 +0.6% SP500 +3.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1255/1.97 bln/1349 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1477/919 mln/1492

3:50 pm : Commodities finished mixed on the session, with grains, precious metals, and livestock posting modest gains, while energy, softs and industrials all moved to the downside.

March crude oil shed 1.7% to settle at $89.03 per barrel. Prices dropped sharply in mid-morning trade, giving up modest gains and breaking below the $89 level to notch lows at $88.45 per barrel. The sell off in crude coincided with chatter that Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak would resign ahead of his last day in September. That was never confirmed and prices bounced modestly into the close. For the week, crude dropped 0.4%. March natural gas closed off 0.4% to $4.31 per MMBtu.

April gold finished lower by 0.3% to $1349.50 per ounce, while March silver ended higher by 1.1% to $29.01 per ounce. DJ30 +26.90 NASDAQ +15.43 SP500 +3.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1229/1.8 bln/1362 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1464/723.4 mln/1488

3:00 pm : Only an hour remains before the trading week ends. As things currently stand, the stock market is on pace for a weekly gain of more than 2%.

Next week brings another bevy of earnings, although the number of widely-held names has already begun to wane. There is also a dearth of data slated for next week. Monday brings consumer credit figures for December, but there really isn't anything pivotal until weekly jobless claims are posted on Thursday. Trade balance data and a consumer sentiment survey are due on Friday. DJ30 +11.99 NASDAQ +13.50 SP500 +1.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1192/1.50 bln/1367 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1356/600 mln/1587

2:30 pm : The stock market continues to chop along with a narrow gain. Action has been both listless and lackluster all session long.

Market participants have been unmotivated by the January jobs report, which featured smaller-than-expected growth in both nonfarm and private payrolls. The headline unemployment number tumbled unexpectedly to 9.0% from 9.4%, but prevailing population estimates played a part in that drop.

Lack of motivation among investors has also made for a lull in trading activity. As such, trading volume on the NYSE has yet to hit 550 million shares and only 90 minutes remain today. DJ30 +10.25 NASDAQ +12.83 SP500 +1.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1146/1.38 bln/1397 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1307/548 mln/1628

2:00 pm : The stock market is holding steady in higher ground, but it has yet to turn the move into anything material. However, the consumer discretionary sector is up 0.6% with help from retailers (+1.2%) while the tech sector is also up 0.6% with help from semiconductor issues (+1.9%).

Utilities have underperformed almost all session. The sector is down 1.0% at the moment. DJ30 +6.93 NASDAQ +13.54 SP500 +1.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1210/1.27 bln/1315 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1336/505 mln/1576

1:30 pm : Some buying interest has begun to surface in the broader market. That has the S&P 500 at its highest level in about three hours. As for the Nasdaq, it has climbed to a session high, where it sports a solid gain. The Nasdaq continues to be helped by tech stocks (+0.6%), namely semiconductor issues (+1.8%).DJ30 +5.86 NASDAQ +13.50 SP500 +1.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1201/1.17 bln/1304 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1290/470 mln/1610

1:00 pm : The January jobs report has done little to drive stocks this session. That has left the major equity averages stuck in a sideways chop all session. However, the dollar has staged another advance and Treasuries have resumed their descent.

During January nonfarm payrolls increased by 36,000 and private payrolls increased by 50,000, but both were well short of what had been widely expected. That made the drop in the headline unemployment rate to 9.0% from 9.4% a complete surprise. However, many attribute the dramatic reduction in the unemployment rate to changes in prevailing population estimates. Just yesterday Fed Chairman Bernanke reiterated that the economic recovery hasn't been strong enough to significantly reduce unemployment.

The jobs report featured a surprisingly strong 0.4% monthly increase in average hourly earnings. It was the sharpest monthly increase in more than two years. Some analysts have cited that increase as a catalyst for further selling in Treasuries, which are down markedly.

Treasuries have been stuck in a week long descent. That has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note comfortably above 3.60% to its highest level in several months.

The major equity averages have been chopping along all session, but semiconductor stocks have attracted considerable support. Their collective 1.4% gain has helped the Nasdaq Composite maintain a modest lead over its counterparts.

The pace of earnings announcements slowed a bit over the past 24 hours. However, Aetna (AET 36.40, +3.13) was out with its latest quarterly report, which featured an upside earnings surprise and upside forecast that have helped the stock stage its best percentage move in more than a year to trade at a fresh two-year high.

The dollar continues to advance against competing currencies after it had set a two-month low earlier this week. The Dollar Index is up 0.4% today, but down 0.1% for the week. DJ30 +1.70 NASDAQ +8.06 SP500 -0.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1080/1.07 bln/1416 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1189/435 mln/1709

12:30 pm : The Nasdaq has managed to remain in positive territory while its counterparts chop along with fractional losses. The tech-rich Nasdaq continues to be helped by semiconductor issues, which are collectively up 1.2% at the moment. Semiconductor stocks are already up more than 11% this year.

Oil prices have come under increased pressure over the past hour. In turn, generic futures contract prices currently put oil at $88.90 per barrel, down 1.8% for the day.

The drop in oil prices has weighed on the energy sector which had spent about the first hour of trade near the neutral line, but it has since descended to a 0.5% loss. Although that isn't a dramatic drop, it is enough to make energy one of this session's worst performing sectors. DJ30 -8.25 NASDAQ +2.97 SP500 -1.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 914/975 mln/1558 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1090/400 mln/1782

12:00 pm : Overall trade remains lackluster, but shares of Aetna (AET 36.24, +2.97) are having an impressive session. Following an upside earnings surprise and upside forecast, the stock is on pace for its best percentage move in more than a year and already at a fresh two-year high.

In contrast, Life Technologies (LIFE 52.28, -2.52) is down sharply to a near two-month low, even though the firm reported last evening better-than-expected earnings and issued in-line guidance. DJ30 -12.60 NASDAQ +1.74 SP500 -1.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 882/894 mln/1571 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1069/365 mln/1802

11:30 am : Listless trade has made for some rather choppy action, which continues to keep stocks in a generally narrow trading range.

Despite the dullness that surrounds equities today, the dollar has turned higher. Recent buying in the greenback has the Dollar Index up 0.4%, which puts it on pace for its third straigth gain. During that time the Dollar Index has advanced 1.3%, which makes for its best three-session performance in about a month. The dollar is still down a bit more than 1% against a collection of competing currencies this year, though. DJ30 -12.57 NASDAQ +0.51 SP500 -2.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 820/785 mln/1597 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1061/320 mln/1790

11:00 am : Stocks have turned lower in recent trade. The slide has the three major equity averages back into the red.

However, semiconductor stocks are puting together an impressive performance. Their collective strength has the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 0.9%. Marvell Tech (MRVL 19.85, +0.37) is a primary leader in the semiconductor space.

Strength among semiconductor issues has helped prop up the broader tech sector, which is up 0.1%. Tech is currently the only major sector of the S&P 500 to sport a gain. DJ30 -18.92 NASDAQ -0.86 SP500 -3.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 805/650 mln/1582 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1029/265 mln/1796

10:35 am : The dollar index is trading near session highs, but this is only weighing on select commodities as half of the commodities in the CRB Commodity Index are higher. Most commodity segments are mixed this morning such as soft, energy, industrial, grains and livestock.

Sugar futures are leading the CRB Index this morning after plunging over 10% during yesterday's trading session. It closed about 9.3% lower. Volatility in sugar over the last few days initially stemmed from Cyclone Yasi near Australia, which threatened the country's sugar crop. In current trade, sugar is up 2.4% at 32.82 cents/lb.

Energy markets are mixed with crude in positive territory and RBOB gasoline, heating oil and natural gas lower. March crude oil moved into positive territory over four hours ago and hit session highs of $91.67 per barrel just after pit trading began. Crude is currently up 0.8% at $91.24 per barrel.

March natural gas pulled back around the top of the hour, falling back in to negative territory. It's now back near session lows of $4.29 per MMBtu, currently at $4.32 per MMBtu, down 0.3%.

Precious metals are trading higher this morning with silver the second best performer in the CRB Index. April gold began to move higher when pit trade opened and pushed into positive territory. It hit new session highs of $1358.50 per ounce and is now 0.3% higher at $1358.00 per ounce. March silver is up 1.8% at $29.25 per ounce.DJ30 +9.84 NASDAQ +7.22 SP500 +1.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1002/475.2 mln/1302 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1324/200.8 mln/1457

10:00 am : Stocks have recovered from an early slip. The S&P 500 and the Dow are now flat, but the Nasdaq is actually up to a modest gain. The Nasdaq is currently led by large-cap tech issues like Apple (AAPL 346.25, +2.84) and Research In Motion (RIMM 64.28, +1.61).

With stocks catching a bid, Treasuries have extended their recent slide. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now to a multi-month high above 3.60%.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%), Tech (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.2%), Materials (+0.1%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Energy, Health Care
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.7%), Telecom (-0.4%), Financial (-0.4%)DJ30 +4.47 NASDAQ +5.96 SP500 +0.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1011/315 mln/1231 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1281/140 mln/1429

09:45 am : The major equity averages have slid to slight losses in the first few minutes of trade. Financials are currently the heaviest drag; they are down 0.7%.

Weakness among financial issues is rather broad. Diversified financial services are down 1.1%, diversified banks are down 1.0%, investment banks and brokerages are down 0.9%. However, insurance brokers are up an enviable 2.0%. Retail has attracted support for the second straight session.

The group advanced more than 1% in the prior session, but is up a much more tame 0.2% this morning. DJ30 -10.67 NASDAQ -2.75 SP500 -2.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 786/174 mln/1334 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1007/94 mln/1631

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. The stock market is up more than 2% for the week, but stock futures suggest that a flat-to-slightly higher start Friday is in order. The flow of earnings announcements has slowed a bit and the only economic item on the calendar -- the January jobs report -- was already released. Both nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls had smaller-than-expected increases, but the headline unemployment rate still made an unexpected drop to 9.0% from 9.4% in December. Part of that drop has been attributed to updated population estimates. The dollar has resumed its advance against competing currencies. In the prior session it posted its best percentage gain in almost one month. It is up modestly this morning, though. Action abroad has provided a generally positive backdrop to premarket trade; Europe's bourses are up modestly and Japan's Nikkei climbed more than 1% while China and Hong Kong's markets remained closed for holiday observance.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50. The tone abroad has been generally positive, but gains have varied. Germany's DAX is up 0.1%. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a leader for the second straight session; the stock now trades at a five-month high on the German bourse. Automakers BMW and Volkswagen are back under pressure. France's CAC is currently up 0.2%. Saint Gobain has been a primary leader this session. Its effort has been complemented by Societe Generale and BNP Paribas, both of which have made nice rebounds from their prior session slides. Britain's FTSE is up 0.3%. Vodafone (VOD), Anglo American, and Barclays (BCS) have been driving forces behind the move. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) has been a source of weakness for the second straight session; the cumulative effect of its slide in this session and in the prior session is a loss of more than 4%.

Markets in China and Hong Kong remain closed for holiday observance, but Japan's Nikkei was open for trade. The Nikkei scored a 1.1% gain. Softbank outperformed as it ascended to a 30-session high following its upwardly revised profit forecast. That helped the telecom sector swing to a 2.6% gain. Sony (SNE) also made a gain following its latest quarterly report. In merger and acquisition activity, Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal announced that they will combine.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Stock futures saw some whipsaw action in the minutes surrounding the release of January nonfarm payrolls, but they have since stabilized near the neutral line. Nonfarm payrolls for January increased by 36,000, which is a far cry from the increase of 148,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Private payrolls increased just 50,000, when 163,000 additions had been widely expected. Despite the smaller-than-expected increases, the headline unemployment rate fell sharply to 9.0% from 9.4% in December. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for an unemployment rate of 9.5%. It should be noted, though, that the drop in the unemployment rate is mostly due to changes in prevailing population estimates. After all, Fed Chairman Bernanke just stated yesterday that the economic recovery hasn't been strong enough to significantly reduce unemployment.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Stock futures have been bouncing around since the prior session's close. Their lack of direction has left them narrowly above the neutral line. The dollar is also flat after it staged a strong gain in the prior session. Listlessness comes ahead of the official January nonfarm payrolls report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. The flow of earnings announcements has slowed since yesterday, but Aetna (AET) has distinguished itself with better-than-expected results and upside guidance. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) had an upside earnings surprise, but its top line was light. UPS (UPS) had already reported its latest quarterly results earlier this week, but announced last evening an 11% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.52 per share. As for overseas action, the tone has been generally positive, but markets in China and Hong Kong remain closed for holiday observance.

06:53 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80.

06:53 am : Nikkei...10543.52...+112.20...+1.10%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:53 am : FTSE...6006.81...+23.50...+0.40%. DAX...7214.73...+21.00...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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