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 Post subject: January 21st Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points -18.60
PostPosted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 10:21 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
Tough trading day and I wasn't able to exploit a few trade opportunities that represented key changes in supply/demand. However, I did stick to the overall trading plan. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: -18.60 points or ($1860.00) dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=86&t=735. However, be advised that I'm frequently testing new trade signal methods or new trade management rules (e.g. stop/loss, trailing stops, profit targets, order types, time frames, workstation templates et cetera) after entry of existing profitable trade signal methods whenever market conditions change. Thus, adapting is a critical variable to my consistent profits along with preventing me from becoming complacent in my trading...this helps avoid trading account drawdowns.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=128&t=854

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Dow Boosted By Earnings, Tech Shares Lag
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click on the above image to view today's price action

By Ben Rooney, staff writer
January 21, 2011: 5:13 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks closed mixed Friday, with technology shares lagging the broader market, as investors weighed strong earnings from General Electric against a quarterly loss from Bank of America.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 49 points, or 0.4%, to close at 11,872, the highest level since June 2008. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 3 points, or 0.2%, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) fell 15 points, or 0.5%.

For the week, the Dow gained 1.2%, while the S&P was flat. The Nasdaq lost about 1.7% over the last five trading days.

General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) led gainers on the Dow after the conglomerate reported a fourth-quarter profit that topped Wall Street forecasts, sending its stock up 7%. Energy stocks Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) were also strong after an industry group suggested oil prices will continue to rise in 2011.

"The profit news is pretty favorable today," said Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research at MF Global. "GE is probably the poster child for that, but Google certainly did well last night."

Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) reported late Thursday that quarterly profits and sales rose from year-ago and beat analysts' forecasts. But shares of the search giant sank over 1% as investors digested news that Eric Schmidt is stepping down as chief executive, with co-founder Larry Page taking over in April.

Shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) dropped 1.6% after it reported quarterly results that disappointed investors. But a better-than-expected quarterly report from SunTrust (STI, Fortune 500) bank in Atlanta helped temper ongoing worries about the banking sector, according to Kalivas.

The technology sector has been under pressure this week, despite strong earnings from tech leaders IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Apple (APPL) and Google. Some traders say the sector is "overbought" and that strong tech earnings may not be enough to push the market higher.

"It's getting harder to surprise investors who already have elevated levels of enthusiasm related to equity investments," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott.

On Thursday, stocks closed modestly lower as technology shares remained weak, and worries about the downside of China's robust economy hung over the market.

But overall, stocks have been on an upward trajectory this year -- with the Dow Jones industrial average now less than 200 points shy of 12,000.

Companies: Fairfield, Conn.-based GE said its fourth-quarter earnings rose 31% to $3.9 billion, driven by strong performance in its finance arm and growth in equipment orders.

Bank of America reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $1.2 billion, or 16 cents per share. The latest results included a previously announced goodwill impairment charge of $2 billion. .

SunTrust said it earned $84 million, or 17 cents per share, in the bank's fiscal third quarter. That compares with a loss of $377 million, or 76 cents per share, in the third quarter of 2009.

Oilfield services company Schlumberger (SLB) said Friday that it earned net income of $1.16 billion in the fourth quarter, up 42% from last year. Earnings per share were 85 cents, versus a forecasted 83 cents. Shares tumbled 2.6%.

In other corporate news, Warner Music (WMG) said it retained Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) to find a buyer for all or part of the company, according to news reports. Shares of Warner Music surged 24%.

Hewlett-Packard (HP) announced late Thursday that four directors are stepping down. Five new directors will join the computer product company's board, including eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500)'s ex-CEO Meg Whitman. Shares of HP edged up 0.8%.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.5%, the DAX in Germany ticked up 0.5% and France's CAC 40 gained 1.3%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite soared 1.4%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.5% and Japan's Nikkei tumbled 1.6%.

Economy: There are no market moving economic reports on tap for Friday.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar slipped against major international currencies, including the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for March delivery was flat, slipping 48 cents to settle at $89.11 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $5.50 to close at $1,341 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.42% from 3.45%.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks ended the week mixed. The lackluster finish resulted in the stock market's first weekly loss since November.

Better-than-expected earnings from both General Electric (GE 19.74, +1.31) and Google (GOOG 611.83, -14.94) initially brought buyers back into the fold after the stock market had suffered back-to-back losses. While GE was a steady source of support for the Dow and the S&P 500, GOOG slid at the open of trade and settled at its session low with a sizable loss. Sellers pressed several other large-cap tech issues, too, leaving the Nasdaq to lag its counterparts yet again.

Bank of America (BAC 14.34, -0.20) failed to meet the consensus earnings estimate, but given that its challenges are largely company specific, the rest of the sector was shielded from its weakness. Upside earnings surprises from BB&T (BBT 28.39, +1.31) and SunTrust (STI 29.50, +1.63) also helped prop up bank stocks. The KBW Bank Index bounced to a 1.6% gain.

Though financials have often been leaders of the broader market, their 0.8% gain was offset by a 0.7% loss by the technology sector, which is the largest sector by market weight. The conflicting forces left the major averages to finish mixed after a strong start that saw the Dow score a new two-year high. As gains faded a weekly loss of almost 1% was locked in for the stock market.

The dollar had no real impact on trade today, though it dropped 0.9% to set a new two-month low against a collection of competing currencies. It has lost ground in eight of the past 10 days.

The expiration of monthly options brought plenty of participants into the fold. That made for strong share volume, but nothing too extreme.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials (+1.2%), Financials (+0.8%), Energy (+0.7%), Telecom (+0.4%), Health Care (+0.1%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.1%) Unchanged: Consumer Staples
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.1%), Materials (-0.2%), Tech (-0.7%)DJ30 +49.04 NASDAQ -14.75 NQ100 -0.8% R2K -0.6% SP400 -0.3% SP500 +3.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1073/1.94 bln/1549 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1578/1.26 bln/1424

3:30 pm : The CRB Commodity Index closed out the week with a 0.6% gain. That helped feed a 0.3% weekly gain for the CRB.

Among the more widely watched commodities, gold prices fell 0.4% to finish the session at $1346.50 per ounce. Silver prices shed 1.0% to close at $27.20 per ounce.

Oil prices fell 0.4% to close pit trade at $89.22 per barrel, but natural gas prices put together a 0.8% gain to close at $4.73 per MMBtu. DJ30 +50.97 NASDAQ -10.47 SP500 +3.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1173/1.57 bln/1443 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1650/938 mln/1335

3:00 pm : Stocks enter the final hour of the week with mixed results and on pace for a weekly loss of close to 1%. Though afternoon action has been subdued, things are expected to pick up next week, when a deluge of quarterly reports a made.

Briefing.com will cover results from about 400 different companies.

Next week also brings some important economic data: Monday is void of economic events, but Tuesday brings home price data; Wednesday unveils new home sales and the latest FOMC policy statement; Thursday brings durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, and pending home sales, and; Friday serves up the advance reading on fourth quarter GDP. DJ30 +54.34 NASDAQ -5.13 SP500 +4.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1241/1.44 bln/1364 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1709/865 mln/1271

2:30 pm : The major equity averages have been range bound for the past couple of hours. The lackluster action has made for rather dull theater.

Industrials continue to sport the best gains of the session; the sector is up 1.4%. Tech is at the other end of the spectrum; the sector's 0.2% loss, though modest, makes for the poorest performance of any major sector.

Outside of stocks, the dollar has turned down to a fresh session low. It now trails a basket of competing currencies by 0.8%. Most of its loss is owed to strength in the euro, which is up 0.9% to $1.359.

Treasuries continue to trade quietly with narrow gains. DJ30 +53.35 NASDAQ -6.25 SP500 +4.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1190/1.33 bln/1402 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1700/813 mln/1263

2:00 pm : Stocks have been slow to recover from session lows. That has left the major averages to trade with mixed results -- the Dow and S&P 500 are up nicely, but the Nasdaq Composite is in the red with a modest loss.

Despite the decline from highs this morning and the trading of monthly options, the Volatility Index hasn't really made any kind of a swing. Instead, it is up just 0.4% at the moment. DJ30 +48.96 NASDAQ -3.86 SP500 +4.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1260/1.24 bln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1741/765 mln/1206

1:30 pm : Stocks have managed to move up from session lows, but the overall tone is still mixed as participants keep the Nasdaq in the red and prop up the Dow and S&P 500.

Treasuries have had a relatively quiet session. The benchmark 10-year Note has been drifting sideways for the past couple hours with a gain of only a few ticks. That has its yield range bound between 3.40% and 3.45%. DJ30 +47.94 NASDAQ -4.59 SP500 +4.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1283/1.15 bln/1273 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1734/720 mln/1222

1:05 pm : Solid gains in the early going have faded so that the major averages are mixed at midday. General Electric continues to provide a boon to the broader market following its latest earnings report, though.

In the absence of economic data General Electric (GE 19.73, +1.30) got things going this morning with a better-than-expected earnings report. Shares of the conglomerate have responded with their best single-session percentage gain in eight months so that they now trade near nine-month highs. Such strength has helped prop up both the S&P 500 and the Dow, which actually hit a new two-year high this morning.

Bank of America (BAC 14.34, -0.20) also reported earnings this morning, but the results weren't as strong as what had been expected. Upside surprises from regional plays BB&T (BBT 28.31, +1.23) and SunTrust (STI 29.44, +1.57) have more than offset the weakness in BAC so that the financial sector sports a 0.7% gain.

Google (GOOG 627.00, +0.23) reported last evening better-than-expected earnings and a shake up in its executive order. The stock made a nice gap higher at the open, but that move has been unwound as participants resume selling against large-cap tech issues. Relative weakness in large-cap tech has caused the Nasdaq to underperform its counterparts in recent sessions. Such is the case again today.

All three major averages are now at session lows. The downward drift hasn't come as a result of any particular catalyst, but rather from dwindling support after stocks failed to extend their opening advance in the face of calls that stocks have become near-term overbought. The expiration of monthly options may also be playing a part in the volatility of the day; it has certainly stoked share volume. DJ30 +27.51 NASDAQ -6.01 SP500 +3.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1246/1.09 bln/1299 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1698/690 mln/1236

12:30 pm : Stocks have made an upward turn in recent trade. The move has enabled the Dow and S&P 500 to reclaim gains while the Nasdaq tries to push back into positive territory.

However, airline shares have descended deeper into negative territory. That has left the Amex Airline Index to trade with a 1.1% loss for the session and a 6.5% loss for this week. That steep slide has the Index at a three month-low. DJ30 +56.15 NASDAQ -0.81 SP500 +5.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1290/980 mln/1239 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1809/635 mln/1122

12:00 pm : Stocks have fallen to fresh session lows. The slide has left the major equity averages to trade in mixed fashion.

Tech has become a heavy drag not only on the Nasdaq, but also on the broader market. Tech is the largest sector by market weight in the S&P 500 and it is now down 0.2%, which is the worst of any major sector.

Among tech issues, semiconductor stocks are showing particular weakness. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had been up as much as 1.0% this morning, but it is now down 0.4%. The reversal has put the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index on pace for its fourth straight slide, or a weekly loss of about 4%, which would be its worst weekly performance since August. DJ30 +40.86 NASDAQ -3.27 SP500 +3.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1268/885 mln/1241 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1705/590 mln/1190

11:30 am : The Nasdaq Composite recently slipped into negative territory, but it was quick to pull itself out. The tech-rich Index now sits just above the neutral line after it had been up as much as 0.7%.

The dollar has also come under increased selling pressure, which has taken it deeper into negative territory. The dollar is now down 0.7% against a basket of competing currencies. For several months stocks traded inversely with the dollar, but that trend has become disjointed during the past few weeks. DJ30 +48.55 NASDAQ +1.87 SP500 +5.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1352/775 mln/1107 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1828/530 mln/1031

11:00 am : Selling pressure has been dragging down stock prices for the past hour, but the the Dow and S&P 500 are still up comfortably for the day. The Nasdaq has had a harder time fighting off sellers; in turn, it is quickly approaching the neutral line.

This is the third straight session that participants have pushed harder against the Nasdaq than either of its counterparts. Most of that is due to a rejection of large-cap tech issues. Apple (AAPL 331.70, -1.02) is a good example of this. Its shares were shunned earlier this week when it reported that its CEO, Steve Jobs, will take another medical leave of absence. That news overshadowed a blowout quarter from the company. DJ30 +58.43 NASDAQ +6.07 SP500 +6.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1499/655 mln/937 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1933/475 mln/901

10:30 am : The CRB Commodity Index is up 0.7% this session, but up just 0.3% for the week. Its latest leg higher has been helped by another surge in cotton futures prices, which went "limit up" this morning; cotton was last quoted with a 2.6% gain, or up $4, to $156.94 per pound.

Oil prices recently retreated to a session low of $89.15 per barrel. They have made a slight lift off of that low to trade at $89.27 per barrel with a 0.4% loss.

Natural gas prices are clinging to a 0.1% gain at $4.70 per MMBtu. At their session high natural gas prices traded at almost $4.78 per MMBtu.

Precious metals have been under steady pressure just about all morning. Silver prices were last quoted with a 0.7% loss at $27.25 per ounce. Gold prices are down 0.5% to $1339.40 per ounce.DJ30 +55.17 NASDAQ +8.57 SP500 +6.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1538/525 mln/832 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1952/410 mln/848

10:00 am : Stocks wavered shortly after the open, but a flurry of buying quickly followed. Stocks are now sitting at their best levels of the morning, but they are still shy of the two-year highs that were set earlier this week.

The stock market's latest leg higher comes amid an upward push by the financial sector to a 1.3% gain. The sector is currently led by regional banks, which are up 2.5% following better-than-expected earnings from BB&T (BBT 28.25, +1.17) and SunTrust (STI 29.44, +1.57).

Advancing Sectors: Industrials (+1.7%), Financials (+1.3%), Energy (+1.2%), Materials (+1.0%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%), Telecom (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.5%), Tech (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.1%)DJ30 +79.65 NASDAQ +17.95 SP500 +10.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1630/345 mln/662 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2117/335 mln/648

09:45 am : Stocks have slipped a bit from their opening push higher. The major equity averages are still up nicely, though.

Industrial stocks are in the best shape. The sector is up 1.4% amid leadership from General Electric (GE 19.36, +0.93), which is flirting with multi-month highs following a better-than-expected earnings report.

Internet search giant Google (GOOG 635.00, +8.23) also posted a positive earnings surprise. Its shares have pulled back about six points from their opening gap up, though. DJ30 +59.67 NASDAQ +11.96 SP500 +7.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1548/250 mln/680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1992/290 mln/677

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.80. Stocks appear to be headed for a higher start, but futures suggest that the move won't be enough to offset losses from the past couple of sessions. Declines in the past two days have the S&P 500 entering today's trade with a 1.0% weekly loss. That threatens to be the stock market's first weekly retreat since November. Such a streak of gains has led many to state that the market is overbought in the near term. In turn, the prospect for profit taking and the propensity of participants to buy the market's dips come together amid the expiration of monthly options. It all could make for a rather volatile session. For now, though, market participants are pleased with bottom line beats from General Electric (GE) and Google (GOOG); they've shrugged off a miss by Bank of America (BAC).

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.30. The more widely-watched commodities are mixed this morning. Specifically, oil prices are up 0.1% to $89.70 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices are up 0.5% to $4.72 per MMBtu. Precious metals are under a bit of pressure at the moment. In turn, gold prices are down 0.3% to $1342.90 per ounce while silver prices have shed 0.5% to trade at $27.33 per ounce. Strength in other commodities has propped up the CRB Commodity Index, so that it sports a 0.6% gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.30. Domestic stock futures continue to trade with strength. The mood in Europe is also upbeat. That has helped Germany's DAX advance to a 1.0% gain. Metro AG and Commerzbank have been primary leaders in recent trade. Volkswagen is a laggard once again. It has fallen in all five sessions of this week for a cumulative loss of 9.9%. That puts shares of the automaker at a two-month low. As for data, Germany's January IFO Business Climate Index came in at a record high of 110.3. France's CAC is up to a 1.6% gain amid leadership from BNP Paribas, Total (TOT), Societe Generale, and ArcelorMittal (MT). GDF Suez, Publicis Groupe, Alcatel-Lucent, and EDF are the only issues in the 40-member Index that have failed to put together a gain. Britain's FTSE is up 0.6%. Natural resource plays BP Plc (BP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and BG Group are primary leaders there. Rio Tinto (RIO) has also caught a nice bid, which has helped its shares rebound from the one-month low that they set in the prior session. According to data, retail sales in the United Kingdom fell 0.8% in December after a 0.3% increase in November.

Action in Asia was mixed. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.6% as about 85% of its components logged losses. Fanuc, Fast Retailing, and Softbank were key in the downturn. Utilities plays managed to attract support; they settled with a collective gain of 0.7%. According to data, Japan's All Industry Activity Index fell 0.1% in November after a 0.3% decline in October. Action in China was much stronger. As such, the Shanghai Composite climbed 1.4%. It was led by China Petroleum (SNP), Industrial & Commercial Bank, and PetroChina (PTR). Industrial & Commercial Bank and PetroChina (PTR) were actually sources of weakness for Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which shed 0.5%. CNOOC (CEO) was also a drag. HSBC (HBC) provided some support, as did China Mobile.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. Stock futures are up nicely in response to upside surprises from Google (GOOG) and General Electric (GE). Bank of America (BAC) came short of the consensus earnings call, though. There is no economic data to trade on today, but the expiration of monthly options could induce participation. Pressure has resumed against the greenback so that it is down 0.5% against a collection of competing currencies. The decline hasn't been enough to take the Dollar Index below the near two-month low that it set earlier this week, however.

06:46 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.50.

06:46 am : Nikkei...10274.52...-162.80...-1.60%. Hang Seng...23876.86...-126.90...-0.50%.

06:46 am : FTSE...5900.04...+32.00...+0.50%. DAX...7056.70...+32.40...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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