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 Post subject: January 6th Thursday 2011 (No Trades Personal Day Off)
PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:09 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
I had a personal day off to spend the day with my son doing a new activity he wanted to do...visiting local comic book stores and just reading them. A father and son activity. Simply, no trades today and I'll be back tomorrow in trading the Emini ES futures..

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0 dollars in the S&P 500 Emini ES ($ES_F) Futures.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=86&t=723. However, be advised that I'm frequently testing new trade signal methods or new trade management rules (e.g. stop/loss, trailing stops, profit targets, order types, time frames, workstation templates et cetera) after entry of existing profitable trade signal methods whenever market conditions change. Thus, adapting is a critical variable to my consistent profits along with preventing me from becoming complacent in my trading...this helps avoid trading account drawdowns.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=128&t=854

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg (Youtube) - U.S. Stocks Retreat on Valuations, Retailers Decline



Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Stall Ahead Of December Jobs Report
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporter
January 6, 2011: 4:20 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended mixed Thursday afternoon, as the dollar strengthened and investors mulled a rise in jobless claims and softer-than-expected same-store retail sales ahead of the December jobs report due Friday.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) finished down 26 points, or 0.2%, with shares of Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500), Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500), and AT&T (T, Fortune 500) leading the decline. Meanwhile Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), and Hewlett Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) posted the biggest gains.

The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 3 points, or 0.2%, as weak retail sales weighed on the broad index. Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) and Target (TGT, Fortune 500) were among the biggest losers.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) gained 8 points, or 0.3%, led by a 13.8% jump in shares of chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).

Stocks have trended upward this week, as positive economic reports have buoyed investor confidence about the recovery. Wednesday's strong report on private sector payrolls from ADP helped push the Dow to a fresh two-year high for the third day in a row.

Though investors are hoping that the government's monthly employment figures due before the opening bell Friday will also show signs of a brightening jobs pictures, they hesitated to take big positions Thursday.

"Yesterday's report on private sector payrolls was extremely strong, but today's data on unemployment claims puts the reliability of that number in question," said Dave Hinnenkamp, CEO of KDV Wealth Management. "It's crucial that the monthly figures tomorrow come in strong. Anything less than expected will be a major disappointment to the market."

Economy: The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits ticked back above 400,000 last week -- rising by 18,000 to 409,000 in the latest week.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected jobless claims to increase to 405,000.
2011: Happy New Job!

On Friday, the government's monthly jobs report is expected to show employers boosted payrolls by 150,000 last month, following a 39,000 increase in November, according to a CNNMoney survey of 27 economists.

That comes on the heels of a report from payroll processor ADP issued Wednesday, showing that private-sector employers added 297,000 jobs in December. Economists had been looking for a rise of 100,000.
0:00 /3:46Economy in 2011: Another roller coaster?

Companies: Monthly same-store sales figures are due throughout the morning from major retailers. So far sales results are coming in weaker-than-expected, with retailers citing the major snowstorm that hit the East Coast, extra deep discounts and shopper fatigue. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected an overall gain of 3.4% from a year ago.

Before the opening bell, Costco (COST, Fortune 500) logged a 6% jump in December same-store sales, beating the 6.2% increase expected by a Thomson Reuters consensus of analysts. Shares of the retailer finished slightly lower.

Shares of Target (TGT, Fortune 500) and Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) fell almost 7% after the retailers' December same-store sales missed big. Sales at discounter Target rose just 0.9% compared to estimates for a 4% increase, and No. 1 clothing chain Gap's sales fell 3% despite heavy discounts in December.

Shares of MetroPCS Communications (PCS) sank 6.7% after the prepaid wireless provider said its fourth-quarter subscriber growth slowed from the prior quarter, when it tripled the number of customers it signed up.

Shares of BP (BP) edged lower after the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling released a report spreading the blame for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. The commission said that problems with deepwater drilling are "systemic" and that only "significant reform" will prevent another disaster.

World markets: European stocks finished mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.4%, while the DAX in Germany rose 0.6%. France's CAC 40 finished unchanged.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.5%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong edged up 0.1% and Japan's Nikkei rose 1.4%.

Late Wednesday, Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang said China will buy about 6 billion euros ($7.9 billion) of Spanish government debt, according to news reports citing Spanish newspaper El Pais.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro for a fourth consecutive day, rising more than 1% to $1.3016. It also rose 0.3% against the British pound. The greenback edged up slightly versus the Japanese yen. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of rival currencies, rose 0.6%.

A stronger buck weighs on commodity prices, which are priced in dollars.

Oil for February delivery lost $1.92, or 2.1%, to settle $88.38 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $2.00, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,371.70 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.41%, from 3.47% late Friday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks lacked direction for the entire session and, appropriately, finished in mixed fashion.

Overseas gains had offered mild support to stock prices this morning, but buying failed to generate any meaningful momentum before the open. Support waned with an uninspiring initial jobless claims count for the week ended January 1. Initial claims totaled 409,000, which is on par with the 405,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Initial claims were up 18,000 from the prior week while continuing claims were down 50,000 from the prior week to 4.10 million.

December same-store sales disatisfied as only a few firms met or exceeded expectations. That left the lot of retailers to slide to a 1.6% loss. Target (TGT 54.93, -4.01) was among the worst performing retailers after it reported that its same-store sales increased by less than 1% during December. The stock found support at its 200-day average, which was last touched two months ago, but it still settled with its worst single-session loss in more than a year.

Telecom stocks were also shunned. In turn, the telecom sector lost 2.8%, which made it the worst performing sector of the session.

At the other end of the spectrum, tech scored a 0.9% gain, which made for the sector's fourth straight advance and puts it on pace for a 2.9% weekly gain. Semiconductor plays underpinned the sector's most recent advance. Semiconductor stocks collectively advanced 1.8%. Such strength also helped prop up the Nasdaq.

Though the negative correlation between the dollar and the stock market has diminished in recent days, the broader market ran into some late morning selling that coincided with a bounce by the greenback against the euro. The euro violated its 200-day moving average to set a one-month low after the release of a report that offered a framework for future eurozone bank failures in the eurozone. No report was issued on sovereign debt in the eurozone.

A stronger dollar certainly didn't help the case for commodities, which were clipped for further losses today. In broad terms, the CRB Commodity Index fell 1.3%. Crude oil prices tumbled 2.1% to settle at $88.38 per barrel. Natural gas prices logged a 1.1% loss at $4.43 per MMBtu after they had swung to a gain of more than 2% following news of a greater-than-expected draw of 135 bcf.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.4%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-2.8%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%), Energy (-0.7%), Financials (-0.6%), Materials (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Industrials (-0.2%)
Unchanged: UtilitiesDJ30 -25.58 NASDAQ +7.69 SP500 -2.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1148/2.11 bln/1469 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1165/1.09 bln/1821

3:30 pm : Commodities, save for livestock (-1.2%), sold off today. Grains (-2.1%) and industrials (-1.8%) led the way lower for the sector. Sugar futures fell 6.1% to close at $0.3024 per pound.

It was a quiet session for Feb gold and March silver, which closed lower by $2.00 to $1371.70 per ounce and 7.2 cents to $29.13 per ounce respectively. Despite sizeable strength in the dollar index, both metals closed near the flat line.

Feb crude oil shed 2.1% to end at $88.38 per barrel, closing sharply lower for the second time in two sessions. Since trading to fresh ~2 yrs highs earlier this month, crude oil prices have dropped over 4%. Feb natural gas ended down 1.1% to $4.43 per MMBtu after it gave back all of its gains from this morning's inventory data.DJ30 -40.37 NASDAQ +4.50 SP500 -4.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1068/1.7 bln/1550 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1083/794.5 mln/1880

3:00 pm : Recent selling has knocked stocks down to new afternoon lows. Tech (+0.7%) and health care (+0.2%) are still the only two sectors that have successfully held on to their gains.

Though trade has been without clear direction today, volatility is only up slightly, according to the Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX is currently up 1.3%. DJ30 -37.04 NASDAQ +4.45 SP500 -3.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1084/1.60 bln/1519 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1089/725 mln/1874

2:30 pm : Tech stocks continue to tick higher. The sector now sports a 0.9% gain, which puts it on pace for its fourth straight advance and its best weekly performance since a 3.4% climb during the week that ended November 5. Tech is currently up 2.9% week to date.

In contrast, consumer staples stocks are down 0.4% this session and down 0.6% this week. That makes them one of the weakest performing sectors of the new year. That follows the sector's subpar performance in 2010, when it recorded a 10.7% annual gain. DJ30 -26.30 NASDAQ +9.44 SP500 -2.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1267/1.45 bln/1329 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1226/665 mln/1707

2:00 pm : A recent flurry of buying has sent the Nasdaq to a fresh afternoon high. Its overall gain remains modest, though.

The Nasdaq's recent drive higher comes at the hand of semiconductor stocks and also of large-cap tech issues like Microsoft (MSFT 28.49, +0.49), Yahoo! (YHOO 17.28, +0.37), and Google (GOOG 614.36, +5.29). DJ30 -23.91 NASDAQ +8.38 SP500 -1.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1181/1.32 bln/1399 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1215/618 mln/1715

1:30 pm : Treasuries are in solid shape. The benchmark 10-year Note has benefited from a slightly stronger bid than what has been given to the 30-year Bond. Their yields stand at 3.41% and 4.52%, respectively.

As for action among stocks, the Dow and S&P 500 continue to trade in negative territory. Their losses remain moderate. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is still holding on to a slight gain.

The dollar has pushed up to a new session high, where it now sports a 0.7% gain against competing currencies, namely the euro. DJ30 -44.38 NASDAQ +2.97 SP500 -4.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1152/1.22 bln/1394 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/580 mln/1794

1:00 pm : The broader market is mired in the red following a lackluster start and a bounce by the dollar, but semiconductor stocks have helped keep the Nasdaq in positive territory.

Stocks started the session on a flat note after an in-line initial jobless claims tally of 409,000 was unveiled. Participants were also generally unimpressed with retailers' December same-store sales results. Dissatisfaction in the retail space has subsequently led the SPDR Retail ETF (XRT 47.16, -0.60) down more than 1%.

Following the uninspiring action of the early going, stocks ran into some selling pressure that coincided with a drop by the euro against the dollar. The euro has set a one-month low beneath its 200-day moving average and continues to trail the dollar by 0.9%. The euro's retreat followed a report that offered a framework for future bank failures in the eurozone, but it should be noted that the report had been expected.

Though the broader market's overall loss is moderate, weakness is relatively widespread. Telecom stocks are under the most pressure as they contend with a 3.0% loss.

Tech is outperforming as it sports a 0.7% gain. Most of that is owed to a 1.2% bounce by semiconductor plays. Strength in that space has helped give the tech-rich Nasdaq a modest gain while its counterparts remain mired in the red.DJ30 -33.49 NASDAQ +4.89 SP500 -3.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1173/1.12 bln/1362 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1175/535 mln/1738

12:30 pm : Only two sectors are currently in higher ground -- tech (+0.5%) and health care (+0.1%). Both have been in relatively solid shape for most of the day.

Selling has intensified against the energy sector in recent trade. In addition to broader market weakness, a 2.0% drop in oil prices to $88.50 per barrel has exacerbated the sector's weakness. Drillers and equipment plays are among the sector's worst performers; they are down 1.9% and 2.5%, respectively. DJ30 -43.78 NASDAQ +2.58 SP500 -4.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1134/1.02 bln/1382 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1124/498 mln/1768

12:00 pm : Despite the generally lackluster state of today's trade, semiconductor stocks are in strong shape. Their gains have propeled the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to a 1.3% gain. Strength among semiconductor plays like NVIDIA (NVDA 18.33, +1.35), Marvell Tech (MRVL 19.17, +0.61), and Applied Materials (AMAT 13.98, +0.22) has helped keep the Nasdaq in positive territory, although the Nasdaq's gain is only fractional.DJ30 -38.90 NASDAQ +3.69 SP500 -3.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1127/922 mln/1383 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1158/455 mln/1716

11:30 am : Telecom stocks are under sharp pressure today. The sector has sunk to a 3% loss, which stems mostly from a precipitous drop in MetroPCS (PCS 13.33, -0.93). Disappointment in the stock follows the company's latest quarterly report on subscriber growth. Analysts at Oppenheimer had actually selected PCS as one of their top telecom picks for 2011.

Integrated telecom giants AT&T (T 28.98, -0.57) and Verizon (VZ 36.27, -0.91) are also under sharp pressure and, in turn, adding to the telecom sector's weakness. There are no headlines to account for the couple's weakness.DJ30 -36.26 NASDAQ +3.40 SP500 -3.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1114/805 mln/1366 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1124/400 mln/1728

11:00 am : Stocks recently made a push to fresh morning highs, but the effort has failed to gain traction. In turn, stocks have succumbed to a flurry of selling that has taken both the Dow and S&P 500 back into negative territory.

Though the inverse relationship between the stocks and the dollar has dissipated during the past couple of weeks, the stock market's recent slip comes as the greenback pushes to its best level of the day. With the dollar now up 0.6% against a basket of competing currencies, it is on pace for its fourth straight gain. That stretch follows seven straight losses. DJ30 -20.28 NASDAQ +2.24 SP500 -2.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/635 mln/1299 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1212/325 mln/1597

10:30 am : Selling pressure against commodities has the CRB Commodity Index down 0.3%, but natural gas prices have pushed higher in recent trade.

Oil is one of the weakest performing commodities this morning. The energy component is currently priced at $89.15 per barrel, down 1.3% today.

Natural gas prices have swung to a 2.0% gain at $4.56 per MMBtu in recent trade. The move follows news that natural gas inventories for the week ended December 31 had a draw of 135 bcf, which contrasts with the consensus call for a draw of 131 bcf. Prices had been flat ahead of the data.

Precious metals prices remain mired in red. Specifically, gold prices are down 0.3% to $1369.70 per ounce while silver prices are off by 0.5% at $29.03 per ounce. DJ30 +5.26 NASDAQ +6.86 SP500 +0.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1110/450 mln/1245 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1288/235 mln/1492

10:00 am : After an early slip the stock market attempted to recover to the neutral line, but it was met with resistance there. The early gyrations have made for a rather choppy start.

The stock market's underlying action remains generally mixed, but materials stocks have made a nice move higher. The sector, which slipped to an early loss of 0.2%, has since swung to a 0.4% gain. Dow Chemical (DOW 35.12, +0.44) and Monsanto (MON 71.95, +2.82) are leaders in the group. Monsanto posted this morning better-than-expected earnings and reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2011.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+0.4%), Health Care (+0.3%), Tech (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-0.4%), Energy (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%), Financials (-0.1%)DJ30 -13.09 NASDAQ +1.46 SP500 -0.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 986/284 mln/1260 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/168 mln/1536

09:45 am : An underwhelming batch of same-store sales results for December has shares of retailers down 1.2% as a group. That has undercut the consumer discretionary sector, which is off by 0.6% in the early going.

Though health care (+0.3%), tech (+0.2%), and industrials (+0.1%) make up the only three sectors to trade with any kind of a gain this morning, the broader market remains near the neutral line.

As for the Dollar Index, it has stabilized just above the unchanged mark since a recent bout of selling threatened to dash its morning gain.DJ30 -5.90 NASDAQ -0.17 SP500 -0.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 830/169 mln/1316 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1001/117 mln/1628

09:15 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30. Stock futures have drifted off of their morning highs so that a rather flattish start to trade appears to be in order. Support has waned amid an underwhelming batch of monthly same-store sales results and an in-line weekly initial jobless claims tally. The dollar has also drifted lower in recent trade, too, but it is still up fractionally against a collection of competing currencies. Heading into today the dollar has settled with gains in three straight sessions.

09:00 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Europe's major bourses remain in strong shape. As such, Germany's DAX currently sports a 1.2% gain. Bayer AG and Daimler (DAI) are leaders in the move. Defensive-oriented issues like consumer staples stocks (+0.2%) and utilities (+0.3%) are lagging, however. France's CAC has climbed to a 0.7% gain. The advance has been led by energy giant Total (TOT) and pharmaceutical play Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), which announced last evening positive phase II results for a breast cancer drug. In contrast, Air Liquide and Danone top a list of laggards. Britain's FTSE is up 0.4%. BP Plc (BP) is a leader there, despite a White House report that has faulted the firm's management, as well as that of Halliburton (HAL) and Transocean (RIG), in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill this past year. However, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) has fallen under selling pressure. As for data, the PMI Services Index for December from the United Kingdom came in at 49.7, down from 53.0 in the prior month. Eurozone data showed a drop in the Consumer Confidence reading to -11.0 from -9.4 in November, but the Economic Confidence reading improved to 106.2 from 105.3 in November.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei spiked 1.4% in a broad based move that saw nearly 90% of its components stage gains. Fanuc and Kyocera (KYO) were leaders while Fast Retailing plummeted 5% to a new one-month low beneath its 50-day moving average. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.5%. That loss was driven by PetroChina (PTR), Ping An Insurance, and Inudstrial & Commercial Bank. Poly Real Estate and Commodities City. Separately, China's Commerce Ministry stated that it is increasing its holdings of eurozone debt, but the euro continues to trail the dollar by a modest margin. Hong Kong's Hang Seng mustered a 0.1% gain. CNOOC (CEO) and HSBC (HBC) led the move. China Construction Bank and China Life Insurance hampered action, however.

08:35 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.30. Not much of a reaction has been made to the latest weekly jobless claims count. In turn, stock futures have held on to a modest lead over fair value. Initial jobless claims for the week ended January 1 totaled 409,000, which is on par with the 405,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The latest initial claims tally is up 18,000 from the prior week. That puts the four-week average at 410,750, down from 414,250 in the prior week. As for continuing claims, they fell week over week to 4.10 million from 4.15 million.

08:00 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.80. Stock futures are up modestly this morning, but they aren't yet in line with the prior session's high. The bid precedes the latest weekly jobless claims tally (8:30 AM ET), but comes amid renewed strength abroad, especially in Europe, where the latest dose of data varied. However, China's Commerce Ministry stated that it is increasing its holdings of eurozone debt. Overnight action in Asia was more mixed. The flow of monthly same-store sales results across newswires is starting to pick up. Thus far the picture is a bit muddled.

06:46 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50.

06:46 am : Nikkei...10529.76...+149.00...+1.40%. Hang Seng...23786.30...+28.50...+0.10%.

06:46 am : FTSE...6086.61...+42.90...+0.70%. DAX...7016.03...+76.40...+1.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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