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 Post subject: November 2nd Tuesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +8.30
PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 9:32 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)

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Quote:
The tricky price action of today was the low volatility price rise from 1030am to 200pm est. However, I was able to get in one Long position for 2 contracts during that tough trading duration for a profit of +1.10 and +1.50 even though my best trade occurred later in the trading day with a Long position around 4pm est.

Trade Performance for Today: +8.30 points or $830 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=668

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=119. However, you must join the TSL Support Forum to access the free study guide. To register...click here.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=125&t=825

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg Video - U.S. Stocks Gain Before Fed Meeting, Election Results
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, sending benchmark indexes to six-month highs, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's plans to bolster the recovery and an election outcome that may hand Democrats their biggest defeat in seven decades. Bloomberg's Pimm Fox also speaks.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Hold Gains On Election Day
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By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter
November 2, 2010: 4:47 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- After an initial boost at the market's open, stocks held steady throughout the day as investors sat on their hands to wait for the outcome of two major events: the mid-term elections and a two-day Fed meeting.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) closed ahead 64 points, or 0.6%, with 23 of its 30 components rising. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 9 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq (COMPX) climbed 29 points, or 1.1%.

Early in the morning, stocks got an upward jolt from optimism about rapid growth overseas, after both Australia and India raised their key interest rates in an effort to fight off inflation. The rate hikes weakened the U.S. dollar increasing demand for riskier assets like stocks.

As investors refocused on the mid-term elections later in the day, stocks held on to those gains rather steadily on light trading volume.

"People are just holding on to their positions, waiting to see what happens overnight and tomorrow, said Brian Lazorishak, portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel of Charlottesville, Va.

Stocks are coming off a lackluster trading day Monday, which was dominated by jitters about the elections and Fed.

Elections and the Fed: Many on Wall Street expect Republicans to win the 39 seats needed to take control of the House. In the Senate, the GOP would need to win 10 of the 37 seats up for grabs to get the majority.

A Republican majority could be perceived as pro-business and therefore give a boost to the market.

"Most of the people I'm dealing with are hoping Republicans get a firm grip on things, and the thinking is that that ultimately helps out the economy," said Phil Streible, a senior market strategist with futures broker Lind-Waldock. "Spending won't be as loose, budgets will be more in line and fiscal responsibility will kick in."

* What the Fed should really be buying

Meanwhile, the Fed ends its two-day meeting, with a highly anticipated policy statement due Wednesday afternoon. The central bank is expected to unveil a new round of asset purchases, as part of a wider quantitative easing plan.

Investors are also looking ahead to Friday's jobs report from the Labor Department. Economists expect the report to show that employers added 60,000 jobs last month.

Companies: BP (BP), recovering from the Gulf oil spill, reported a third-quarter profit of $1.8 billion that included a $7.7 billion pretax charge related to the disaster. While the income was down from $5 billion a year earlier, it was a turnaround from the $17 billion loss posted in the prior quarter due to spill-related charges.

Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) posted a third-quarter profit that fell from a year earlier, but beat analysts' expectations excluding one-time charges. The drug maker said sales of its blockbusters Lipitor and Celebrex fell. Shares of Pfizer fell about 1% in the trading session.

Audio products-maker Harman International Industries (HAR) was the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 Tuesday. Its shares rose 12% on strong earnings.

Agriculture processor Archer Daniels Midland (ADM, Fortune 500) reported fiscal first-quarter profit below expectations. Shares fell 6.6%.

E-commerce software-maker Art Technology Group (ARTG) announced Tuesday that it has agreed to be acquired by Oracle Corp. (ORCL, Fortune 500) for $6.00 per share in cash, or approximately $1 billion. The deal represents a 46% premium over Monday's closing price. Shares of ATG were up 45% and Oracle rose 1.4%.

World markets: European stocks closed the session higher. The CAC 40 in France rose 0.6%, Germany's DAX climbed 0.8%, and Britain's FTSE 100 gained 1.1%.

Asian markets ended little changed. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong each gained less than 0.1%. The Shanghai Composite ended 0.3% lower.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar eased against the euro, but gained against the British pound and the Japanese yen.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of key currencies, fell 0.7%.

Earlier in the morning, the Australian dollar surged to a 27-year high against the American greenback, after Australia's central bank hiked its key interest rate a quarter percentage point.

Oil futures for December delivery rose 95 cents to settle at $83.90 a barrel.

Gold for December delivery gained $6.30 to settle at $1,356.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.59%, from 2.63% late Monday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Steady support gave stocks strong gains Tuesday, but resistance capped the climb.

The dollar was the primary driver of today's action. It slid to a 0.7% loss as the euro rallied in the wake of some strong eurozone PMI manufacturing data that overshadowed wider yield spreads on riskier debt of countries like Greece.

There was no domestic data posted today, but a barrage of reports begins tomorrow. Tomorrow also brings the latest FOMC policy statement, which is widely expected to include plans for further quantitative easing. Though the size and scope of any such plan are not known, the market's reaction to the announcement will be telling of whether there is confidence in the Fed's efforts to keep away a double dip.

With the dollar down markedly ahead of tomorrow's events, stocks were able to attract a broad bid that propped up all 10 major sectors. What is more, the buying effort drove the S&P 500 back to within one point of its five-month high before it encountered formidable resistance in the 1195 to 1196 zone. Though the stock market failed to set a new multi-month intraday high, it did book its best close since early May.

Of the major sectors, defensive-oriented utilities actually settled with the strongest gain. The sector's 1.2% gain came after it had underperformed in the prior session.

With a 1.1% gain energy stocks were not far behind. The sector was led by oil and gas explorers (+1.5%) and oil and gas equipment plays (+1.4) amid a 1.2% rise in oil prices to $83.90 per barrel. BP Plc (BP 41.42, +0.65) outperformed after it posted an upside earnings surprise.

Dow component Pfizer (PFE 17.45, -0.17) posted better-than-expected earnings of its own and issued in-line guidance, but were out of favor for all but the first few minutes of the session.

Financials managed only a modest 0.3% gain. The sector was partly hampered by weakness among bank stocks, which collectively fell to a 0.2% loss after analysts at Moody's downgraded U.S. regional banks' supported ratings. Participation was unimpressive once again.

Fewer than 1 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE this session. That made it clear that many investors would rather wait on the sidelines to see the midterm election results, hear the Fed's latest take on and plans for the economy, and assess jobs data at the end of the week.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+1.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.1%), Energy (+1.1%), Telecom (+0.9%), Materials (+0.9%), Tech (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.8%), Industrials (+0.8%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Financials (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +64.10 NASDAQ +28.68 NQ100 +1.1% R2K +2.1% SP400 +1.1% SP500 +9.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1948/1.93 bln/702 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2209/913 mln/772

3:30 pm : The weak dollar acted as a catalyst for select commodities today. Industrials and soft commodities led the way higher with 1.8% gains. The dollar propped up precious metals as well, with silver gaining 1.3% to settle at $24.84 per ounce, while Dec gold gained 0.4% to finish at $1356.90 per ounce.

Dec crude oil gained 1.2% to end at $83.90 per barrel. Weakness in the dollar, coupled with strength in equities, help priced higher today. Dec natural gas rebounded, following yesterday's sizable sell off, as it closed higher by 0.9% to $3.87 per MMBtu.DJ30 +80.75 NASDAQ +27.26 SP500 +9.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1912/1.5 bln/719 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2202/634.2 mln/766

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to descend steadily from the session highs that were set just about an hour ago. Still, gains remain strong as the general tone of trade stays positive and stocks head for their thirteenth gain in 17 sessions. During the course of that time the stock market has gained about 2.5%.

With only an hour left in the day participants are looking ahead. Midterm election results will be tabulated tonight. Tomorrow brings the latest FOMC policy statement. The latest ADP Employment Change Report is also due tomorrow, along with the ISM Services Index. Weekly initial jobless claims will be published Thursday, as will be productivity data for the third quarter. Friday brings the always pivotal monthly payrolls report and pending home sales numbers.

As for earnings, they continue to come in droves, but the number of market movers has dwindled since a couple of weeks ago. DJ30 +75.30 NASDAQ +25.68 SP500 +9.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1870/1.42 bln/747 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2190/589 mln/761

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 failed to push past resistance in the top end of the 1195 to 1196 zone. That has prompted some to lock in profits by selling. Still, the stock market's subsequent pullback has been slight in scope.

Stocks are still broadly higher with energy (+1.3%) and consumer discretionary (+1.2%) out in front. Financials continue to trail as they trade with a gain of just 0.2%. DJ30 +80.33 NASDAQ +26.00 SP500 +9.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1867/1.30 bln/747 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2215/542 mln/721

2:00 pm : After stalling near 1194, the S&P 500 has recollected itself and made a move to push to new session highs. The move has taken it into the 1195 to 1196 zone, which has been an area of formidable resistance ahead of the psychologically significant 1200 line. The zone also marks the top end of the five-month high that the S&P 500 registered last week. DJ30 +90.06 NASDAQ +29.39 SP500 +11.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1898/1.19 bln/705 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2246/498 mln/677

1:30 pm : Stocks recently ran up to the session highs that were set in the early going, but they failed to extend through that mark as resistance against the S&P 500 in the 1195 to 1196 zone remains formidable.

Though stocks continue to trade just shy of their five-month highs with solid gains, Treasuries at the long end of the yield curve are up solidly with the 30-year Bond up a full point and yielding 3.94%. DJ30 +79.12 NASDAQ +25.17 SP500 +9.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1831/1.08 bln/766 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2174/455 mln/739

1:00 pm : Stocks are a bit off of their highs for the day, but they continue to sport solid gains with help from a downturn by the dollar.

Though trade in the dollar could become increasingly volatile with the midterm election results, FOMC policy statement, and monthly jobs report, the greenback is currently down with a 0.7% loss. Such weakness has supported a broad-based bid for stocks.

Stocks initially failed to generate the momentum necessary to take them back to the best levels of the prior session and, as a result, were hit with some light, consolidative selling, but they remain in strong shape. In fact, some recent buying has helped stocks reclaim most of their gains.

A 1.8% spike in shares of retailers has the consumer discretionary sector is atop the list of best performing sectors. Its 1.3% gain is matched only by the energy sector, which has been helped by BP Plc (BP 41.58, +0.81) in the wake of the company's upside earnings surprise.

Dow component Pfizer (PFE 17.52, -0.10) was out this morning with its latest results. The company posted an upside earnings surprise and went on to issue in-line guidance, but its shares have still fallen to a loss. Despite the heavyweight's weakness, the health care sector is still up 0.8%, in stride with the broader market.

Financials have followed from a distance all session. The sector is currently up 0.3% as regional bank stocks slip to a 0.4% loss following news that analysts at Moody's downgraded U.S. regional banks' supported ratings.

The financial sector's lagging performance is really nothing new; over the past 30 trading sessions the S&P 500 has climbed more than 4%, but the financial sector has actually lost more than 1%.DJ30 +75.36 NASDAQ +22.33 SP500 +9.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1823/1.01 bln/752 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2176/422 mln/722

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to chop along with solid gains. Strength remains broad and mostly the result of a weaker dollar, which currently trails a basket of major foreign currencies by 0.7%.

The dollar's downturn and the positive tone surrounding broader market trade has helped support commodities. In turn, the CRB Commodities Index is up 1.0% to a two-year high. DJ30 +66.30 NASDAQ +19.26 SP500 +7.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1769/909 mln/780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2098/385 mln/781

12:00 pm : Health care stocks are up nicely this session. Their gains are in line with those of the broader market.

One of the biggest names in the space, Pfizer (PFE 17.31, -0.31) posted an upside earnings surprise for its latest quarter and went on to issue in-line guidance for fiscal 2010. Teva (TEVA 50.39, -0.85) also posted better-than-expected earnings, but despite the strength of their reports both stocks are in the red with Tenet Healthcare (THC 4.16, -0.14), which reported a surprise loss. DJ30 +63.38 NASDAQ +19.24 SP500 +7.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1790/819 mln/758 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2105/346 mln/759

11:30 am : Shares of retailers lagged in the prior session, but they have attracted plenty of support today. In turn, retailers are collectively up 1.2%. Home improvement plays Lowe's (LOW 21.80, +0.61) and Home Depot (HD 31.54, +0.83) are primary leaders in that pack.

Strength among retailers has helped prop up the consumer discretionary sector so that it sports a 1.0% gain. That is only matched by telecom (+1.0%), while the other major sectors trail. DJ30 +64.10 NASDAQ +18.87 SP500 +7.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1759/719 mln/751 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2074/306 mln/758

11:00 am : After failing to extend its opening advance through the prior session's high, stocks have pulled back a bit in a consolidative-type move. The pullback is not too surprising since stocks saw such a sharp run up into resistance.

Financials have generally failed to share in this morning's gains. The sector is currently up just 0.1%, which puts it well behind both the broader market and any other major sector in the S&P 500. The financial sector's limited gain stems largely from weakness in regional banks like Zions Bancorp (ZION 20.18, -0.28) and Regions Financial (RF 6.16, -0.07) following word that analysts at Moody's downgraded U.S. regional banks' supported ratings.

The financial sector's lagging performance is really nothing new. In fact, over the past 30 trading sessions the S&P 500 has climbed about 4.5%, but the financial sector has actually lost about 1.2%. DJ30 +60.85 NASDAQ +16.77 SP500 +6.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1684/598 mln/786 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1979/259 mln/832

10:35 am : Most commodities are trading higher today as the dollar index is showing weakness again. The dollar index is currently at 76.75, not far above its year-to-date lows of 76.144, which were hit on October 15.

December crude oil has been in positive territory all session and hit session highs of $84.14 per barrel around 8:30am ET. Crude is currently up 1.1% at $84.05 per barrel.

December natural gas has been volatile in the last two and a half hours. After falling sharply just before 8:00am ET into the red and new session lows of $3.75 per MMBtu, the energy component regained its losses and pushed back above the unchanged line, now at $3.87, 1.1% higher.

Precious metals have been in positive territory all session so far. December gold is up 0.3% at $1354.80 per ounce, while December silver is 1.1% higher at $24.83 per ounce. DJ30 +72.46 NASDAQ +17.03 SP500 +7.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1685/472.2 mln/706 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1998/206.5 mln/746

10:00 am : The materials sector continues to climb. It is now up 1.4%, which puts the overall sector at a new 52-week high. Vulcan Materials (VMC 37.59, +1.64) is the biggest gainer by percent in the sector, even though the company posted an earnings miss last night.

As for the broader market, it is stuck in a narrow, but choppy range that is still just a couple of points below the multi-month high that it set last week.

Though stocks are in strong shape, Treasuries have caught a nice bid. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back below 2.60%.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+1.4%), Tech (+1.0%), Telecom (+0.9%), Utilities (+0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%), Health Care (+0.8%), Industrials (+0.7%), Energy (+0.6%), Consumer Staples (+0.5%), Financials (+0.5%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +76.59 NASDAQ +21.10 SP500 +8.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/319 mln/534 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2159/145 mln/557

09:45 am : The major equity averages are up with strong gains in the first few minutes of trade, but momentum behind the gap up hasn't been enough to take stocks back to the prior session's high.

Early support is broad, just as it was in the prior session. This time around, though, materials stocks are in the best shape; the sector is up 1.0% with help from construction materials (+4.4%), steel (+2.0%), and fertilizer and agricultural chemicals (+1.2%). However, not every stock in that space is strong -- Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM 30.66, -2.73) is under considerable pressure following an earnings miss. DJ30 +80.90 NASDAQ +22.36 SP500 +8.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1726/192 mln/452 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2198/94 mln/445

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.50. Renewed weakness in the dollar has helped recharge buyers, such that a solid start to the session looks to be in order. The dollar's weakness comes largely against the euro, which has climbed sharply amid strong PMI Manufacturing readings for Germany and the broader eurozone. PMI Construction numbers for the United Kingdom were less impressive and acted as a catalyst for selling against the British pound, though. As for stocks in Europe, the continent's major bourses have staged strong gains, even though yields have increased on riskier debt of eurozone countries in a sign of some unease. With earnings playing only a small part in broader market sentiment and without any domestic data on tap for today, participants will likely take most of their cues from the greenback. However, the greenback's moves could become harder to predict ahead of such major events as the midterm election results, FOMC policy statement, and monthly jobs report this week.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.80. Stock futures continue to trade with strength amid a weaker dollar. The dollar's decline has also helped commodities climb nicely. Pit trade has just opened for oil. The commodity has been bid 1.1% higher to $83.90 per barrel. Natural gas prices have extended their retreat from the prior session -- the energy component was last quoted with a 1.5% loss at $3.77 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices are up 0.6% to $1358.70 per ounce and silver prices are up 1.4% to $24.89 per ounce.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.50. The major bourses of Europe have attracted strong support after a rather flat opening. It has helped that the final reading for eurozone PMI Manufacturing for October improved to 54.6 from 54.1 and Germany saw its figure rise to 56.6 from 56.1. Germany's DAX is up 0.9% at the moment. Adidas, BASF, and Daimler (DAI) have been leaders, but BMW is under pressure after it had showed strength in the prior session. France's CAC has climbed to a 0.9% gain amid strength in energy giant Total (TOT). Energy play BP Plc (BP), which posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter, has helped lead Britain's FTSE to a 1.2% gain. BG Group also had strong earnings. The British pound has succumbed to selling pressure following a weaker-than-expected October PMI Construction figure of 51.6. However, the euro is up sharply. It currently sports a 1.0% gain against the greenback. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar spiked to parity against the U.S. dollar by hitting 1.0013 after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash target rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%. The move was a surprise and is widely regarded as a preemptive strike against inflation.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei set a new one-month intraday low, but recovered to a 0.1% gain. It was led by Fast Retailing. Honda Motor (HMC) was a heavy drag, though. It extended its slide from the prior session to settle at its lowest level in more than one month. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed with a 0.3% loss. It was led lower by China Shenhua and China Life Insurance. Sany Heavy Industry provided support, though. Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished just 0.1% higher as continued strength in China Construction Bank, which climbed to a new one-year high, propped up the broader market measure and offset weakness in China Life Insurance and HSBC (HBC).

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.00. Stock futures have staged a steady climb overnight to take a nice lead over fair value. The ascent comes largely in response to renewed weakness in the dollar, which is currently down 0.5%. Overnight action in Asia was mixed, but Europe's major bourses are up with strong gains. Better-than-expected earnings have made BP Plc (BP) a primary leader in Britain's FTSE, which is currently up more than 1%. In other earnings news, AmerisourceBergen (ABC), Pfizer (PFE), Teva Pharma (TEVA), and Newmont Mining (NEM) all exceeded expectations. Preliminary results from MasterCard (MA) look strong. Archer-Daniels (ADM), Tenet Healthcare (THC), and Corinthian Colleges (COCO) came short of the consensus, though. Midterm elections are underway and the FOMC begins its two-day meeting today. The Fed is widely expected to unveil some sort of quantitative easing plan tomorrow afternoon. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced overnight that it raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.75% from 4.50%, which is where it had been expected to remain.

07:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50.

07:30 am : Nikkei...9159.98...+5.30...+0.10%. Hang Seng...23671.42...+18.50...+0.10%.

07:30 am : FTSE...5744.51...+49.90...+0.90%. DAX...6632.37...+27.50...+0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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