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 Post subject: November 1st Monday 2010 Emini TF (No Trades)
PostPosted: Tue Nov 02, 2010 6:23 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)

Quote:
I took a schedule personal day off from the markets today as stated on October 29th Friday that I would do such. Thus, no trades today and I'll be back at trading tomorrow November 2nd Tuesday.


Trade Performance for Today: +0 points or $0 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=667

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=119. However, you must join the TSL Support Forum to access the free study guide. To register...click here.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=125&t=825

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg Video - U.S. Stocks Rise on Manufacturing Data, Fed Speculation
Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, recovering from a late-day tumble, as growth in Chinese and American manufacturing and speculation the Federal Reserve will pump cash into the economy overshadowed a report that JPMorgan Chase & Co. was being probed for mortgage deals. Bloomberg's Pimm Fox also speaks.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks At A Standstill Ahead Of Fed
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click on the above image to view normal size

By Blake Ellis, staff reporter
November 1, 2010: 4:54 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended a choppy session little changed Monday as investors remained jittery ahead of the week's three big events -- the midterm elections, the Federal Reserve meeting and the October jobs report.

After soaring more than 100 points earlier in the session, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) ended just 6 points higher. The S&P 500 (SPX) edged up 1 point, and the Nasdaq (COMP) fell 3 points.

Stronger-than-expected readings on U.S. and Chinese manufacturing growth sparked an early buying spree.

But gains were muffled as investors turned their focus back to the upcoming election and the Fed's policy statement on Wednesday.

Expectations of additional stimulus from the Federal Reserve and bets that Tuesday's congressional elections will favor the Republicans have buoyed markets since late August. But this is a pivotal week.

"All that really matters now is the Fed coming in with a boat-load of money," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading. "The only reason the market has been going higher for the past two months is because of these expectations of Fed money-pumping."

* Don't rule out Fed 'shock and awe'

The Dow is coming off its best October since 2006, but stocks have moved sideways over the last week.

Economy: The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index jumped to 56.9 in October from 54.4 in September. That easily beat the reading of 54 expected by economists. Any reading above 50 indicates growth in the sector.

"Regional manufacturing surveys leading up to this report had indicated a slowdown, so the fact that this hasn't occurred is encouraging," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

Strong manufacturing numbers out of China, the world's second-biggest economy, also provided a lift to the market and sent Chinese stocks higher overnight.

"China is seen as the growth engine for the world, so this data coming in positively adds support to the fact that their economy is continuing to grow," said Luschini.

A report on personal income and spending before the bell showed that personal income declined 0.1% while personal spending increased 0.2% in September.

Economists had expected the Commerce Department to report that spending by individuals rose 0.4% in September, according to a consensus estimate from Briefing.com. Personal income was expected to have risen 0.2% in the month.

Separately, government data showed that construction spending unexpectedly rose 0.5% in September, while economists had expected a 0.7% drop.

Companies: JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) shares slipped nearly 1% amid reports that the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the bank's $1.1 billion deal with hedge fund Magnetar.

Shares of Exco Resources Inc. surged 30% after the company's chairman offered to buy the company in a $4.4 billion deal.

Cablevision Systems Corp. announced over the weekend that it has reached an agreement with News Corp. to return Fox programming to Cablevision. That sent shares of Cablevision (CVC, Fortune 500) up 1.7%, and shares of News Corp. (NWSA) edged slightly higher.

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) said early Monday that it has raised nearly $37 billion by selling off one insurance subsidiary, and the initial public offering of a second, AIA Group Ltd. AIG's stock edged down slightly.

Before the bell, Loews (L, Fortune 500) reported that its net income dropped in the third quarter to $36 million, compared to $468 million in 2009. That included a one-time charge of $328 million stemming from CNA Financial Corporation, a subsidiary. Excluding that charge, Loews reported earnings of 13 cents per share, topping analyst expectations. Shares were little changed.

Shares of Wilmington Trust (WL) sank 41% on news of a bigger-than-expected third quarter loss. The bank also agreed to be bought by M&T (MTB).
CNN Poll: Economy is No. 1 issue

Companies scheduled to post results this week include BP (BP), MasterCard (MA, Fortune 500), Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500), CVS Caremark (CVS, Fortune 500) and WellPoint (WLP, Fortune 500).

World markets: European shares finished slightly higher. The CAC 40 in France closed 0.2% higher, the DAX in Germany rose less than a percent and Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.3%.

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index dropped 0.5%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 2.4%. The Shanghai Composite ticked up 2.5%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil futures for December delivery rallied, gaining $1.52, or nearly 2%, to settle at $82.95 a barrel.

Gold for December delivery tumbled $7 to settle at $1350.60 an ounce.

Bonds: Prices on U.S. Treasuries fell Monday, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up to 2.63% from 2.61% late Friday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Strength in the early going had the stock market up 1% to trade near its five-month high, but the mix of a stronger dollar, technical resistance, and uncertainty ahead of this week's major events left stocks to slide and nearly finish with a loss.

Trade ended on a flat note last week, but buyers were brought back into the mix by data. Manufacturing data out of China was impressive as the country's PMI improved to a six-month high of 54.7. That was complemented by domestic data that showed an October ISM Manufacturing Index of 56.9, which marked also marked a six-month high and exceeded the 54.0 that had been widely expected.

U.S. construction spending for September was also strong. It increased 0.5% when a 0.7% decline had been expected to follow a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in the prior month.

Income and spending data was rather disappointing, but participants shrugged it off anyway. September personal income slipped 0.1% and spending increased a tepid 0.2% -- the consensus had called for a 0.2% increase in income and a 0.4% increase in spending. Core personal consumption expenditures for September were flat, as expected, though.

The collective body of data helped drive the S&P 500 to within less than one point of its best level since May, but the move was unable to push through resistance in that zone.

At the same time stocks ran into resistance they had to grapple with a bounce by the greenback, which was also spurred higher by today's data since it could help make the case for smaller steps toward further quantitative easing.

It is widely expected that the FOMC will announce some sort of plan to augment monetary policy on Wednesday, but the size and scope of the plan remains a mystery. Participants are also brooding over the implications of midterm elections and the latest monthly payrolls report on Friday.

Uncertainty about what will unfold this week also kept many investors on the sidelines. In turn, trading volume on the NYSE did not even break 1 billion shares.

Those that did trade left to surrender all of their gains and then some as the stock market actually fell to a modest loss in late trade. Though it recovered, the stock market's fractional gain paled in comparison to what it had sported in the early going.

Energy stocks had been early leaders with a 1.5% gain at their session high, but they settled just 0.3% for the better. Baker Hughes (BHI 48.37, +1.95) was one of the best performers in the group, thanks to an upside earnings surprise.

Though defensive oriented, utilities underperformed by a wide margin. The sector's 0.9% slide was also its worst loss in more than a month.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.4%), Energy (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.2%), Industrials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.9%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Consumer Discretionary, Materials, FinancialsDJ30 +6.13 NASDAQ -2.57 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.7% SP400 -0.2% SP500 +1.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 971/1.92 bln/1684 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1556/958 mln/1405

3:30 pm : Dec natural gas shed 4.9% today to settle at $3.84 per MMBtu. It was quite an interesting session for natural gas futures, which traded to its best levels, at $4.187, before falling over 9% throughout the day to its lowest levels at $3.825. The dramatic sell off ended a three session rally for natural gas prices. Dec crude oil finished higher by 2% to $82.95 per barrel. It spiked to its highs of the session, at $83.86, shortly after the open of pit trade and spent the remainder of the day chopping around just shy of those highs.

Dec gold finished lower by 0.6% to $1350.60 per ounce, while Dec silver closed off 0.1% to $24.55 per ounce. Both metals were pressured lower throughout the day as the dollar moved higher. In overnight trade, Dec silver futures traded to a fresh 30-year high at $25.05 per ounce. DJ30 -33.80 NASDAQ -9.40 SP500 -2.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 845/1.6 bln/1793 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1292/702.4 mln/1667

3:00 pm : Stocks recently extended their gradual drift lower. The leg down left the stock market at its worst level of the day. There was no clear cause or catalyst.

As an aside, earnings season continues with another barrage of announcements scheduled for after the close, though there are no market movers in the bunch. However, a few more widely held names like AmerisourceBergen (ABC 32.57, -0.26), Archer-Daniels (ADM 33.47, +0.15), Clorox (CLX 66.33, -0.22), Kellogg (K 50.55, +0.29), MasterCard (MA 239.68, -0.38), Newmont Mining (NEM 61.13, +0.27), and Pfizer (PFE 17.58, +0.16) are due to report tomorrow morning. DJ30 -2.73 NASDAQ -2.93 SP500 +0.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 961/1.41 bln/1662 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1484/612 mln/1462

2:30 pm : Utilities continue to descend deeper into negative territory. The sector is now down 0.8% and it is still the only sector in negative territory.

In contrast, energy stocks continue to outperform. That sector is up 0.7%. Integrated oil giant and Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM 67.08, +0.59) has been a primary leader in its pack. The stock is now at its highest level in close to six months. DJ30 +29.59 NASDAQ +1.88 SP500 +3.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1046/1.29 bln/1561 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1649/554 mln/1282

2:00 pm : Stocks are chopping around a bit as they come up from their afternoon lows. Though the general tone of trade remains positive ahead of this week's major events -- midterm elections, FOMC statement, and monthly payrolls report -- stocks are still well off of their session highs, which actually had the S&P 500 within a point of its five-month high. DJ30 +42.28 NASDAQ +4.20 SP500 +4.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1129/1.20 bln/1463 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1784/513 mln/1135

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 was recently grinded down to a fresh session low, but remains moderately higher for the session.

Materials stocks have come under considerable pressure in recent action. The sector is now up just 0.1% after it had sported a gain of more than 1% in the early going.

Still, utilities stocks are in the worst shape. The defensive-oriented sector is now down to a 0.5% loss. What's more, it is the only sector currently in the red.DJ30 +44.84 NASDAQ +2.86 SP500 +4.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1065/1.13 bln/1518 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1720/475 mln/1194

1:00 pm : Strong data drove the stock market higher in the early going, but gains have been slashed by a bounce by the dollar and resistance near multi-month highs.

Stocks got a nice bid this morning. Initial strength was largely underpinned by a strong manufacturing report out of China. The Shanghai Composite responded with a 2.5% surge while Hong Kong's Hang Seng spiked 2.4%.

Domestic income and spending numbers ahead of the open were a bit disappointing, but the October ISM Manufacturing Index came in at a better-than-expected 56.9 and construction spending made a surprise increase.

The data drove the S&P 500 to within less than one point of its five-month high, but resistance in that area caused stocks to pullback a bit. The downturn accelerated as the dollar began to rally, also likely in response to the data -- the greenback is now up 0.4% against competing currencies.

Notably, the reaction of the dollar and the market to data come ahead of the latest FOMC announcement on Wednesday, when an outline for further quantitative easing is expected. However, it is feared that strong data would justify smaller steps toward quantitative easing. Also hanging over the market are mid-term elections tomorrow and the latest jobs report on Friday.

With stocks backed down from their highs the S&P 500 and Dow are holding on to modest gains. Energy continues to be a pivotal source of support; the sector is up 0.7% as oil and gas equipment plays, explorers, and drillers display strength amid a 2.2% rise in oil prices to $83.20 per barrel.

The Nasdaq has barely been able to stay positive, though. It is currently up only fractionally as internet retailers retreat and large-cap tech lacks leadership. DJ30 +43.14 NASDAQ +2.06 SP500 +3.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1080/1.03 bln/1481 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1724/436 mln/1174

12:30 pm : Stocks are slowly trying to reclaim the gains that they handed back during a rebound by the dollar.

Treasuries are still near their session lows with modest losses. They had actually been up solidly in the early going. DJ30 +54.22 NASDAQ +4.35 SP500 +5.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1151/960 mln/1393 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1820/400 mln/1074

12:00 pm : Stocks have steadied their descent, which actually took the Nasdaq into negative territory for a moment. Support, though more moderate now, remains broad.

Of the major sectors, only defensive-oriented utilities are without a gain -- the sector is currently flat. Dominion (D 42.99, -0.47) has been the heaviest drag on the sector, but Hawaiian Electric (HE 22.36, -0.18) has also hampered the sector following its earnings miss. However, Northeast Utilities (NU 31.51, +0.23) has managed to make a solid advance following its latest report, which featured an upside earnings surprise and upside guidance. That report was among the best of any utility this earnings season. DJ30 +55.32 NASDAQ +3.91 SP500 +6.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1124/870 mln/1379 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1871/368 mln/1004

11:30 am : The Nasdaq has surrendered almost all of its gain. Its retreat comes from sharp weakness in the likes of Amazon.com (AMZN 161.64, -3.59) and eBay (EBAY 29.43, -0.43). Apple (AAPL 303.15, +2.29) continues to provide some support, though.

The broader market has seen about half of its gain slashed, but it is still up nicely for the session. Energy remains a primary source of support as it sports a 1.0% gain.

The pullback by stocks comes largely in response to a rally by the dollar, which is now up 0.5% to a fresh session high against competing currencies. DJ30 +50.06 NASDAQ +0.70 SP500 +4.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1199/735 mln/1256 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1923/320 mln/934

11:00 am : A combination of technical resistance at the stock market's multi-month high and a bounce by the dollar to a 0.3% gain has caused stocks to surrender a few points in their pullback from their morning highs.

Still, the major averages continue to trade with solid gains. Those gains remain broad based too, as all 10 major sectors hold steady in positive territory.

Energy continues to outperform as a group. The sector is up 1.2% with oil and gas equipment, exploration, and drilling plays providing the most support. As such, Halliburton (HAL 32.31, +0.45) is a leader. It has been helped by an upgrade at Oppenheimer. Meanwhile, Schlumberger (SLB 69.98, +0.09) has been hampered near the neutral line after it was downgraded at Oppenheimer. DJ30 +77.38 NASDAQ +7.83 SP500 +6.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1353/617 mln/1076 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2039/268 mln/786

10:35 am : December crude traded just above the unchanged line overnight and through the morning until pit trading opened. When oil futures trading began, it immediately popped almost $2 per barrel to just below the $84 mark. The energy component hit new session highs of $83.86 per barrel and is currently at $83.39 per barrel, up 2.4%.

Natural gas hit a contract low of $3.67 per MMBtu a week ago and has since gained 8% to just below the $4.00 mark. The contract hit session lows of $3.93 per MMBtu minutes ago and is now 2.0% lower at $3.96 per MMBtu.

December gold and December silver fell back into the red in recent trade, hitting new session lows (Gold $1352.20, SIlver $24.67). Gold is now down 0.4% at $1352.10 per ounce, while silver is 0.5% lower at $24.68 per ounce.DJ30 +113.30 NASDAQ +21.31 SP500 +10.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1618/468.8 mln/783 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2273/210.0 mln/514

10:00 am : The stock market recently pulled back a bit since coming within four points of the multi-month high that it set one week ago. The slight slip by stocks comes as the dollar's fight for a gain took it up fractionally against competing currencies. However, stocks have since reclaimed those gains and have made a move to fresh morning highs with the release of the October ISM Manufacturing Index, which came in at 56.9. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, an ISM reading of 54.0 after a 54.4 was registered for September.

Construction spending data was also just released and it, too, proved better than expected. Spending for September increased 0.5% when a 0.7% decline had been expected to follow a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in the prior month.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+1.3%), Tech (+1.1%), Industrials (+1.1%), Telecom (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.9%), Materials (+0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%), Financials (+0.7%), Consumer Staples (+0.5%), Utilities +0.5%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +99.60 NASDAQ +20.11 SP500 +10.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1509/300 mln/775 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2201/140 mln/513

09:45 am : Stocks have sprinted out to a strong gain as the dollar eases back into negative territory. Support is broad, but energy stocks, up 1.1%, are out in front with help from a 2.8% spike in oil prices to $83.70 per barrel.

Though stocks are up nicely in the early going, that hasn't stopped Treasuries from attracting a bid of their own. Strength in that space has the benchmark 10-year Note up about nine ticks so that its yield is just below 2.57%. DJ30 +85.22 NASDAQ +17.44 SP500 +8.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1395/163 mln/776 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2120/93 mln/519

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. A solid start looks to be in order as market participants respond positively to strong PMI data out of China. A bounce by the dollar out of the red had threatened to take a cut out of the expected gain, but the greenback has since paused so that it now trades with just a fractional gain. The latest domestic data has not been too impressive. It has featured a surprise slip in personal income and lackluster spending. Still to come, though, is the latest ISM Manufacturing Index and construction spending (10:00 AM ET).

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. Germany's DAX is currently clinging to a 0.2% gain after it been up markedly this morning. BMW has been a primary source of support, but fellow automaker Volkswagen has been a drag. France's CAC has fallen to a 0.3% loss amid weakness among financial issues like Societe Generale and BNP Paribas. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) has been a source of support, however. Britain's FTSE is flat. Bank stocks like HSBC (HBC) and Lloyds Group (LYG) have been strong. Metals and miners Xstrata (XTA) and BHP Billiton (BHP) have also provided support, but BP Plc (BP) and Anglo American have hampered action.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei closed 0.5% lower as consumer discretionary stocks and financials fell. Honda Motor (HMC) plummeted 5.0% after it announced a tepid outlook. Health care (+0.1%) was the only sector to close higher. In China, the Shanghai Composite settled climbed 2.5% following a strong PMI number. Materials made the most of it as they collectively climbed 4.1%. China Shenhua was a big gainer after it reported an 11% rise in net profit. Almost 90% of the stocks in the index finished higher. As for Hong Kong's Hang Seng, it finished 2.4% higher. Tech was strong with a 4.1% gain, collectively, but energy giant CNOOC (CEO) was an individual leader. China Unicom and China Overseas were the only two stocks in the 45-member index to log losses.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50. Stock futures are still up against fair value, but the past couple of hours have seen them gradually grind down from their morning highs. Little has been made of the latest data. Personal income slipped 0.1% in September, when it had been widely expected to increase 0.2%. The surprise decline came after a 0.4% increase in the previous month. As for spending, it increased 0.2%, which is less than the 0.4% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The smaller-than-expected increase comes on the heels of a 0.5% increase in August. Core personal consumption expenditures for September were flat, as expected.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30. Stock futures are up nicely following a flat week. The newly placed bid comes with help from some strong PMI data out of China, where the Shanghai Composite rallied 2.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng mirrored the move with a 2.4% spike. Japan's Nikkei failed to follow as it fell 0.5%. Subsequent action in Europe has been more mixed. The dollar is now up to a fractional gain after it had been under pressure overnight. Its upward move has taken stock futures off of their morning highs. Participants get a nice dose of data this morning. The bottom of the hour brings the latest in personal income and spending. Thatis followed by ISM Manufacturing data for October at 10:00 AM ET, which is also when construction spending data for September will be released. The pace of earnings announcements has slown a bit since last week. Though results generally remain solid, their influence in the market has been rather minimal.

06:54 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30.

06:54 am : Nikkei...9154.72...-47.70...-0.50%. Hang Seng...23652.94...+556.60...+2.40%.

06:54 am : FTSE...5678.38...+3.30...+0.10%. DAX...6601.50...-0.30...0.00.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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