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 Post subject: October 26th Tuesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +7.20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 26, 2010 11:19 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)

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Trade Performance for Today: +7.20 points or $720 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=82&t=660

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=119. However, you must join the TSL Support Forum to access the free study guide. To register...click here.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=123&t=791

Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg Video - U.S. Stocks Retreat as Kimberly-Clark, U.S. Steel Fall
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. Most U.S. stocks fell, led by consumer-staples companies, as results that disappointed investors at companies from Kimberly-Clark Corp. to U.S. Steel Corp. overshadowed higher-than-estimated consumer confidence. Bloomberg's Pimm Fox also speaks.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Claw Out Small Gains
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By Blake Ellis, staff reporter
October 26, 2010: 4:40 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended in slightly positive territory Tuesday after seesawing throughout the session, as investors weighed readings on consumer confidence and housing against a slew of earnings reports.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) ticked up 5 points, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose less than a point, and the Nasdaq (COMP) gained 6 points.

Stocks climbed to six-month highs Monday, propelled higher by a stronger-than-expected report on existing home sales. But with so much uncertainty underlying the daily economic and corporate reports, volatility will continue to dominate.

"We've had a big run-up, so I don't see how they can go much higher," said Karl Mills, president and CIO at Jurika Mills & Keifer.

With the Nov. 2 elections approaching and the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on tap early next month, the possibility of quantitative easing is also in the back of investors' minds.

"The belief is that quantitative easing is a done deal, and to a great extent that's why the market has been as buoyant as it has despite the fact that many leading indicators have stalled or gone down," said Ryan Atkinson, vice president of Balestra Capital. "But it's now late October, so a lot of players are sitting on the sidelines until the elections and FOMC meeting."
Wall Street focuses on the 'three Es.'

Economy: The Case-Shiller 20-City index of home prices in major metropolitan areas indicated that the housing market remained sluggish in August, with prices falling 0.2% from July. From a year earlier, prices edged up a modest 1.7%, missing the 2% rise economists had been expecting.

"[The report] is consistent with what we've been seeing," said Mills. "Housing isn't going to be coming back robustly any time soon here. We're going to have a long recovery period."

After the start of trading, the Conference Board released a report showing that consumer confidence inched up in October, but remained at historically low levels. The index rose to 50.2 from 48.6 in September, coming in slightly higher than the reading of 49 economists had forecast.

"Confidence may be improving, but with the housing market still real early in what may be a turnaround and unemployment running so high, there are still a whole lot of people out there not feeling so confident," said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan.

Companies: After the market close Tuesday, Barnes & Noble (BKS, Fortune 500) unveiled a new full-color, touchscreen version of its Nook e-reader. The company did not immediately announce the price of the new Nook Color.

Shares of Coach Inc. (COH) jumped 12% after the company posted a 34% rise in first-quarter profit and earnings of 63 cents a share -- topping analysts' estimates.

Ford (F, Fortune 500) reported third-quarter earnings that beat analysts' expectations. The automaker reported a profit of $1.7 billion, or 43 cents per share. Ford also announced plans to further pay down its debt. Shares rose 1.5%.
0:00 /1:04Ford fueled by strong earnings

DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) exceeded forecasts by reporting quarterly earnings of 40 cents per share early Monday, despite a decline in pharmaceutical income related to patent expirations. Shares of the company slipped 1%.

Shares of Sony (SNE) rose 1% Tuesday, on media speculation that the electronics maker might be a takeover target for Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500).

Shares of Lexmark (LXK) tumbled 21% after the printer-maker's CEO Paul Curlander announced that he will retire in the spring of 2011.

Late Monday, insurance giant AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) disclosed that its chief executive, Robert Benmosche, has been diagnosed with cancer and is undergoing "aggressive" treatment. AIG shares jumped 2.3%.

World markets: European stocks finished with losses. Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 0.8%, and the DAX in Germany was down 0.4%. France's CAC 40 slipped 0.5%.

Asian markets ended the session lower. The Shanghai Composite was off 0.3%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was 0.1% lower. Japan's Nikkei fell by 0.2%.

* Video 2:53 mins - Weak dollar is a double-edged sword

Currencies and commodities: The dollar strengthened against the euro and the Japanese yen, but fell against the British pound.

Oil for December delivery added 3 cents to settle at $82.55 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery fell 30 cents to $1,338.60 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 2.65% from 2.57% late Monday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Strength in the dollar overshadowed another batch of better-than-expected earnings this morning. While that left stocks to start the session in the red, the broader market was able to recover to the neutral line, where it was mired amid resistance.

The dollar rebounded solidly from its loss in the prior session, such that the Dollar Index settled 0.7% higher today. That move came in the face of a stronger British pound, which was helped by news that the United Kingdom's economic output for the third quarter hit a stronger-than-expected clip of 0.8%. Moreover, Standard & Poor's affirmed the UK's AAA credit rating.

With the dollar a primary catalyst for trade, the broader market was uninspired by the latest round of quarterly reports. The most recent lot included upside earnings surprises from Amgen (AMGN 57.26, -0.69), Biogen Idec (BIIB 59.99, +0.09), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 26.86, -0.30), Johnson Controls (JCI 34.49, -0.25), and Texas Instruments (TXN 28.88, -0.10). Coach (COH 49.78, +5.30), National-Oilwell Varco (NOV 52.03, +4.06), and Ford Motor (F 14.36, +0.21) each posted better-than-expected earnings, too, but their shares set fresh 52-week highs.

IBM (IBM 140.67, +0.83) already reported its results for the latest quarter, but managed to attract support with its announcement that its board has authorized $10.0 billion for share repurchases.

Though moderate, a broadly positive response followed the midmorning release of the Consumer Confidence Index for October. It improved to 50.2 from 48.5, but had only been expected to improve to 49.0, according to economists polled by Briefing.com.

Despite positive data and generally upbeat corporate reports, the stock market never successfully staged an advance. Sellers kept the S&P 500 out of positive territory by standing ready at the neutral line.

Treasuries also had an unimpressive session. The benchmark 10-year Note fell 21 ticks so that its yield climbed to 2.64%. The 30-year Bond fell more than a full point so that its yield returned to the 4.00% mark.

Similar to the prior session, Treasuries extended their losses in the wake of the latest Note auction. Today's auction featured $35 billion of 2-year Notes that drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.43 on dollar demand of $120.1 billion and an indirect bidder participation rate of 40.0%. The 2-year Note ended the day down a couple of ticks so that its yield was last quoted at 0.39%.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%), Energy (+0.3%), Tech (+0.1%), Telecom (+0.1%), Financials (+0.1%),
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.3%), Industrials (-0.3%), Materials (-0.2%), Utilities (-0.2%)DJ30 +5.41 NASDAQ +6.44 NQ100 +0.3% R2K -0.1% SP400 -0.2% SP500 +0.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1298/1.94 bln/1335 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/962 mln/1614

3:30 pm : Despite strength in the dollar, all but two commodities groups finished higher today. Industrials (+1.2%) and grains (+1.1%) led the way higher. Dec cotton surged 2.8% to finish at $1.28 per pound. Dec wheat futures closed higher by 2.7% to $6.92 per bushel.

Precious metals shed weakness in the dollar to recoup overnight losses. Dec gold finished more-or-less flat at $1338.60 per ounce, while Dec silver gained 0.9% to end at $23.83 per ounce.

It was an uneventful session for energy commodities. Dec crude oil settled higher by 0.1% to $82.55 per barrel. It spent the afternoon session chopping around the flat line. Nov natural gas finished higher by 0.7% to $3.34 per MMBtu. DJ30 +20.39 NASDAQ +10.74 SP500 +1.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1346/1.5 bln/1263 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1436/672.8 mln/1521

3:00 pm : Just an hour remains before the close. Participants are preparing for the latest from Aflac (AFL 54.92, -0.33), Broadcom (BRCM 37.14, -0.37), Canadian National Rail (CNI 66.69, -0.23), all of which report tonight. Tomorrow morning brings announcements from Comcast (CMCSA 19.70, -0.07), ConocoPhillips (COP 61.38, +0.04), Northrop Grumman (NOC 61.25, +0.34), Procter & Gamble (PG 62.72, -0.82), Sprint Nextel (S 4.83, +0.08), and Whirlpool (WHR 84.41, -0.40). DJ30 -0.12 NASDAQ +7.26 SP500 -1.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1258/1.42 bln/1330 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1362/622 mln/1585

2:30 pm : Stocks have stabilized since pulling back from the neutral line amid a run up by the dollar. Consumer discretionary (+0.4%) and telecom (+0.2%) plays have provided most of the support, though they haven't historically been big leaders.

Still, the stock market's slip, however modest, has sent the Volatility Index (VIX) higher. The VIX is now up about 6%, which puts it at its highest level since last Thursday. DJ30 -20.63 NASDAQ +5.44 SP500 -2.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1249/1.32 bln/1337 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1297/570 mln/1648

2:00 pm : Stocks have fallen under a sudden flurry of selling pressure, which has sent the S&P 500 down from the neutral line to its lowest level since late morning. Overall losses remain modest, though.

The stock market's downturn coincides with a rise in the Dollar Index, which is now at a fresh session high with a 0.9% gain.

Treasuries continue to trade with weakness, even in the face of the stock market's recent retreat. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is down 15 ticks so that its yield remains comfortably above 2.60%. DJ30 -22.56 NASDAQ +3.89 SP500 -2.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1273/1.19 bln/1277 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1342/520 mln/1588

1:30 pm : Treasuries remain in the red, largely uninspired by the results of an auction of 2-year Notes. The auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.43 on dollar demand of $120.1 billion and an indirect bidder participation rate of 40.0%. For comparison, the prior auction had a bid-to-cover of 3.78 on dollar demand of $136.1 billion with an indirect bidder participation rate of 39.0%. The average of the past three auctions has a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.41, dollar demand of $126.0 billion, and indirect bidder participation rate of 33.7%.

The yield on the 2-year Note was last quoted at 0.383%, while the yield on the 10-year Note is at 2.607% and the yield on the 30-year Bond is at 3.966%. DJ30 +3.03 NASDAQ +10.65 SP500 +0.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1411/1.07 bln/1133 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1522/475 mln/1381

1:00 pm : Stocks have successfully recovered from an early slide, but the broader market continues to struggle to find higher ground.

The tone of trade in the first few minutes was rather weak as market participants ignored another big batch of better-than-expected earnings and, instead, took their cues from the dollar, which has sported a strong gain against competing currencies all session.

Despite the underwhelming start, the stock market has managed to push higher, just not into positive territory. A better-than-expected Consumer Confidence Index for October, which improved to 50.2, had helped relieve some of the stock market's early weakness, but resistance has kept the broader market from making any kind of a gain.

Still, there have been a few pockets of strength this session. Among them, consumer discretionary stocks are up 0.5% following positive earnings surprises from Coach (COH 49.86, +5.38) and Ford Motor (F 14.36, +0.21), both of which have set fresh 52-week highs this session.

In contrast, materials stocks, which had actually outperformed in the prior session, have lagged all day. The sector has managed to trim its loss so that it is now down 0.6%, but steel stocks remain weak in the wake of disappointing reports from U.S. Steel (X 40.65, -1.62) and AKSteel (AKS 12.74, -0.63). Even DuPont (DD 46.75, -0.95) is still down markedly, despite an upside earnings surprise.

As an aside, widely-held names like Amgen (AMGN 56.93, -1.02), Biogen Idec (BIIB 59.48, -0.42), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 26.77, -0.39), and Texas Instruments (TXN 28.73, -0.25) all posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter.

Though the stock market continues to struggle near the neutral line, Treasuries have failed to find any real support. In turn, they remain in the red ahead of results from an auction of 2-year Notes, due imminently. DJ30 -6.89 NASDAQ +6.99 SP500 -0.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1311/985 mln/1226 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1435/442 mln/1443

12:35 pm : The stock market continues to hug the neutral line, unable to push into higher ground.

Treasuries remain under steady pressure ahead of the results from an auction of 2-year Notes. The 2-year Note currently trades with a yield of 0.391%. DJ30 -0.68 NASDAQ +9.30 SP500 +0.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1342/915 mln/1189 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/412 mln/1395

12:00 pm : Even though the S&P 500 has been backed down in each of its three recent attempts to turn positive, the broad market measure continues to hang around the neutral line.

While the broader market continues to trade listlessly, airline stocks continue to ascend. In turn, the Amex Airline Index is up 1.1% this session and up 43% year to date, which puts it up to a new three-year high. DJ30 +3.33 NASDAQ +7.60 SP500 +0.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1222/795 mln/1243 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1418/369 mln/1449

11:30 am : For the third time in the past hour the S&P 500 has attempted to turn positive, but has only met resistance instead.

The stock market's efforts to turn positive have come in the face of a steady strength in the dollar, which continues to trade near its session high with a 0.6% gain.

Despite the stock market's attempts to find higher ground, volatility has increased in the past hour. Specifically, the Volatility Index is now up 3%. DJ30 -1.25 NASDAQ +4.40 SP500 -0.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1225/705 mln/1229 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1414/335 mln/1429

11:00 am : An effort to reverse opening losses helped both the Dow and the Nasdaq to poke into positive territory, but the S&P 500 was rebuffed at the neutral line. The broad market measure's failure to find higher ground has caused stocks to pull back a bit.

Telecom stocks are showing strength, though. The sector is up 0.5%, most of which is owed to renewed strength in integrated giant and Dow component Verizon (VZ 32.63, +0.28).

Consumer discretionary stocks make up the only other sector currently trading with any kind of a gain. That sector is up 0.3% amid leadership from Coach (COH 49.21, +4.73), which set a fresh 52-week high on the back of a better-than-expected earnings report. The stock is currently up more than 10%. DJ30 -3.86 NASDAQ +0.11 SP500 -1.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1011/544 mln/1391 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1234/267 mln/1551

10:30 am : Precious metals are trading lower this morning as the dollar index is trading near session highs. December gold put in fresh lows of $1328.10 per ounce in recent trade and is now 0.3% lower at $1335.20 per ounce. December silver is just under the unchanged line, currently trading at $23.54 per ounce.

Despite the strength in the dollar index, energy markets are higher with November natural gas the leading component in the CRB Index this morning. The energy component began to rally around 7:30am ET, pushing into positive territory and to new session highs of $3.41 per MMBtu. Nat gas is just below that level, currently at $3.40 per MMBtu, up 2.4%.

December crude oil put in new session lows of $81.81 per barrel minutes after pit trading began. Crude rallied following this low, gaining over $1 to hit new session highs of $82.88 per barrel and is currently just under this level at $82.67, up 0.2%.DJ30 -1.70 NASDAQ -0.07 SP500 -1.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1031/419.3 mln/1313 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1265/213.2 mln/1469

10:00 am : The overall tone of trade this morning remains rather weak, but stocks have retraced part of their opening slide. Some of the move has come with help from the latest consumer confidence data.

The Consumer Confidence Index for October came in at 50.2, which is up from the 48.5 that was recorded for the prior month and above the reading of 49.0 that had been widely expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.1%), Energy (+0.1%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-0.8%), Tech (-0.6), Health Care (-0.6%), Utilities (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Industrials (-0.2%), Financials (-0.1%)DJ30 -34.74 NASDAQ -11.04 SP500 -3.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 534/241 mln/1724 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 688/138 mln/2000

09:45 am : Stocks are firmly lower in the first few minutes of trade. The slide has been led by materials stocks, which are collectively down 1.5%. That's worse than any other major sector and comes in stark contrast to the prior session, when the sector had provided leadership and settled with a 1.7% gain.

Steel stocks are among the weakest members of the materials sector. Their retreat follows disappointing reports from both U.S. Steel (X 40.56, -1.71) and AKSteel (AKS 12.54, -0.83). DJ30 -51.66 NASDAQ -17.01 SP500 -5.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 415/134 mln/1773 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 535/90 mln/2097

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.30. Another big batch of better-than-expected earnings reports has failed to impress market participants this morning. Most remain fixated on the swings of the dollar, which has rebounded from its slide in the prior session to sport a 0.6% gain. With the dollar now at its morning high, stock futures are at their worst level of the morning. In turn, a firmly lower start to the trading session looks to be in order. Though the dollar has staged a strong bounce against many competing currencies, the British pound is up an impressive 0.7% against the greenback. Its advance follows news of stronger-than-expected economic growth in the United Kingdom during the third quarter, and an affirmation of the UK's AAA credit rating by Standard & Poor's. While the dollar will likely remain a primary catalyst for trade this session, some could be influenced by the latest Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) and results from an auction of 2-year Notes (1:00 PM ET).

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.30. Stock futures have shown little real response to the latest in home price data, and continue to trail fair value as a result. The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for August came in at 148.6 after a 148.9 reading in the prior month. The 20-city seasonally adjusted composite slipped 0.3% month-over-month after a 0.2% month-over-month slip in the prior reading. Year-over-year, the 20-city composite increased 1.7% after a 3.2% annual increase in July.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00. Futures for the S&P 500 continue to trail fair value by a modest margin. Overseas markets have also slipped amid moderate weakness. More specifically, Germany's DAX is down 0.4%. Thyssenkrupp and Deutsche Bank (DB) have been the heaviest drags on trade. As for data, Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for November stayed at 4.9. Import prices for September increased 0.3% after a 0.2% increase in August. Weakness is more widespread in France, where the CAC has fallen to a 0.8% loss. ArcelorMittal (MT) has weighed most heavily on trade following its disappointing quarterly report. Metals and mining plays have also dragged down Britain's FTSE, which is currently off by 0.9%. Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Anglo American are key laggards. Little has been made of news that the United Kingdom economy grew at a stronger-than-expected clip of 0.8% in the third quarter, and word that Standard & Poor's affirmed the UK's AAA credit rating.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei extended its loss from the prior session with a 0.3% decline on Tuesday. Fanuc Ltd., KDDI Corp, and Canon (CAJ) weighed most on trade. In contrast, Fast Retailing extended its rebound from the 52-week low that it set last week. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite finished 0.3% lower. PetroChina (PTR) attempted to provide leadership, but that was undermined by weakness in Industrial & Commercial Bank, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.1% as HSBC (HBC) and Tencent Holdings slumped. Banking plays and energy issues helped provide some support, though.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50. Stocks and the dollar continue to trade in an inverse relationship. As such, the dollar's 0.3% gain this morning has weakened stock futures. Moves by the greenback have overshadowed a deluge of earnings reports, most of which have been better than expected. Among the more widely held names that exceeded expectations for the bottom line are Amgen (AMGN), Biogen Idec (BIIB), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Texas Instruments (TXN), DuPont (DD), Coach (COH), and Ford Motor (F). Not all announcements proved pleasing, though; metals and mining plays U.S. Steel (X) and ArcelorMittal (MT) both disappointed. The economic calendar is relatively sparse again. Its only items for today include the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for August at 9:00 AM ET and the October Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 AM ET. Results from an auction of 2-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET. The 2-year Note's yield currently stands at 0.367%.

06:50 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00.

06:50 am : Nikkei...9377.38...-23.80...-0.30%. Hang Seng...23601.24...-26.70...-0.10%.

06:50 am : FTSE...5712.39...-39.60...-0.70%. DAX...6630.43...-8.80...-0.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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