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 Post subject: October 25th Monday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +5.10
PostPosted: Mon Oct 25, 2010 10:52 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)

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Trade Performance for Today: +5.10 points or $510 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=82&t=656

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=119. However, you must join the TSL Support Forum to access the free study guide. To register...click here.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=123&t=791

Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image Bloomberg Video - U.S. Stocks Climb as G-20 Fuels Fed Easing Speculation
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a fourth straight gain, after the Group of 20 nations pledged to avoid "competitive devaluation" of currencies and investors bet the Federal Reserve will announce further bond purchases next week. Bloomberg's Pimm Fox also speaks.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Rally To 6-Month Highs
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By Julianne Pepitone, staff reporter
October 25, 2010: 4:48 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks climbed to 6-month highs Monday after a report on housing sales came in much better than expected.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 31 points, or 0.3%, to close at 11,164, its highest level since April. The S&P 500 (SPX) increased 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,185 and the Nasdaq (COMP) was up 11 points, or 0.5%, to 2,491.

All three indexes had been up nearly 1% earlier in the morning, after the release of a strong report on existing home sales. Gains receded slightly as the day continued, but most sectors were still strong -- 23 of the 30 blue-chip Dow components were higher at the closing bell.

It marked the second time in the past week that the Dow has eclipsed its highest closing level this year, only to quickly pull back. It rose as high as 11,247.60 earlier Monday; the year's highest close was 11,205.03 on April 26. The intraday peak for the year was 11,258, also on April 26.

In addition to the strong housing data, stocks have recently gotten a boost from strong corporate earnings and bets that Republicans will win control of the House next week -- a shift that market participants believe will further lift stocks.

"President Obama has come out and said, 'I'm pro-business,'" said Kenny Landgraf, principal and founder at Kenjol Capital Management. "But if you have to keep insisting something over and over, it starts to sound like it isn't true."

Experts thought the election bets were already baked into the market, Landgraf said, but stocks have continued a somewhat steady climb throughout October.

Stocks ended mixed Friday, as investors balanced strong U.S. corporate earnings against currency tensions at the G-20 summit in South Korea.

Economy: Before Monday's open, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that a federal agency review of foreclosure procedures at the nation's largest mortgage servicers should be completed next month.

Bank stocks have been under pressure in recent weeks, though, as mortgage servicers reviewed documents after allegations of sloppy paperwork surfaced. Bank stocks felt the blow, with JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) down 1.7% and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) off 2.5% Monday.
0:00 /:56More BofA foreclosure woes?

In its October industry survey, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said Monday that employment conditions improved in the third quarter to the highest level since the start of the 2008-2009 recession. The survey also showed expectations for hiring over the next 6 months rose to the highest level since 2006.

The National Association of Realtors released a report that said existing home sales shot up 10% over the month, to an annual rate of 4.53 million in September. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expected an increase to a rate of just 4.25 million.

Companies: After the bell, Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500) reported third-quarter earnings per share of 71 cents, stronger than the 69 cents per share expected by analysts. Shares of the company rose 0.2% in evening trading.

Office Depot (ODP, Fortune 500) announced that CEO Steve Odland, who has led the company since 2005, is resigning his post effective Nov. 1.

The office supplies retailer also said it expected earnings per share of 18 cents for the third quarter. Shares of Office Depot rose 3.5%.

World markets: European stocks closed higher Monday. Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.2%, Germany's DAX rose 0.5% and France's CAC 40 gained less than 0.1%.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite rose 2.6%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was up 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.3%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar edged lower against the euro and British pound, and it fell against the yen to as much as ¥80.41 -- a 15-year low.

Oil for December delivery gained 83 cents to settle at $82.52 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $13.80 to settle at $1,338.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell slightly late in the afternoon, pushing the yield up to 2.57% from 2.56% on Friday.

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Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : An overnight drop in the dollar and some strong existing home sales data sent stocks to five-month highs, but technical resistance and a slide by financials caused the broader market to surrender a good deal of that gain.

The dollar dropped 1.0% overnight so that it traded at a 15-year low against the yen. Its weakness was widely attributed to the inability of the G-20 to devise a specific plan supportive of the greenback in global trade.

The decline by the dollar drove buyers to action in the early going. Their efforts were emboldened with the release of existing home sales for September. Sales reportedly surged at an unprecedented pace of 10% to an annualized rate of 4.53 million units, which is greater than the annualized rate of 4.25 million units that had been widely expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Buyers took the S&P 500 to its highest level since May, but it lost momentum as it approached the psychologically significant 1200 line. Resistance in that region caused some to sell.

An upturn in the dollar, which settled with a 0.5% loss, led stocks to surrender even more of their gains.

Financials failed to provide any sustainable support to the broader market. The sector was actually up almost 1% in the opening minutes, but finished with a 0.4% loss as bank stocks were backed down. Financials have been largely absent from the stock market's recent advances.

Utilities make up the only other sector to slide to a loss. They finished the day 0.3% lower.

Positive breadth helped keep the major equity averages in positive ground all session. Fading support left the stock market to finish at its session low, though. The rather underwhelming finish caused the Volatility Index to climb about 6% at the close.

Despite the broader market's downward drift, materials stocks still booked big gains. They advanced 1.7% as participants poured money into diversified metals (+2.2%) and fertilizer and agricultural chemicals (+2.2%). While basic materials stocks were strong, commodities were too. Commodities collectively gained 1.0%, according to the CRB Commodity Index.

Treasuries had been up nicely in the early going, but pulled back. Their slide steepened following results from a $10 billion auction of 5-year TIPS. The auction drew a yield of -0.55%, which is the first negative yield on record. It was widely expected, though.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+1.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%), Health Care (+0.5%), Telecom (+0.4%), Tech (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Industrials (+0.2%), Energy (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.3%)DJ30 +31.49 NASDAQ +11.46 NQ100 +0.4% R2K +0.6% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +2.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1599/1.76 bln/1043 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1793/1.01 bln/1181

3:30 pm : Precious metals led commodities higher today after they rallied for 1.6%. Dec silver, which gained 2.1% to settle at $23.54 per ounce, was the largest advancing precious metal today. Dec gold closed up 1.1% to $1338.90 per ounce. Both metals spent the entire session trading in positive territory, but did close well below their respective highs as the dollar was able to trim some of its losses.

Dec crude oil settled higher by 1% to $82.52 per barrel. It gave up all of its gains heading into the afternoon session, but bounced off the unchanged mark to close in positive territory. Nov natural gas finished lower by 0.6% to $3.32 per MMBtu.DJ30 +89.12 NASDAQ +22.21 SP500 +8.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1713/1.4 bln/914 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2092/663.2 mln/883

3:00 pm : Stocks set a five-month high this morning, but support has since faded a bit. There hasn't been much trading volume behind any of this session's action either. In fact, only an hour remains before the close and hardly 600 million shares have been traded on the NYSE this session. The drop in share volume comes immediately after it broke above 1 billion shares for three straight sessions.

Treasuries have come under increased pressure during the past hour. The benchmark 10-year Note is now flat after it was up more than a half point at its session high. Its downturn started in the minutes leading up to the release of the 5-year TIPS auction results then intensified thereafter. The Note's yield has returned to 2.55% after it was fractionally below 2.50%. DJ30 +60.44 NASDAQ +17.09 SP500 +5.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1674/1.23 bln/958 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1979/599 mln/970

2:30 pm : Though earnings season is in full swing, the flow of announcements this morning was rather slow as fewer than 20 names appeared on Briefing.com's calendar. That number increases this evening as Briefing.com covers more than 40 announcements. Among them, Amgen (AMGN 57.99, +0.44) and Texas Instruments (TXN 28.94, +0.28) both step to the podium.

Tomorrow morning brings an even bigger flurry as about 100 companies are given coverage. ArcelorMittal (MT 34.91, +0.37), Biogen Idec (BIIB 59.92, +1.17), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 27.06, +0.10), DuPont (DD 47.81, +0.98), National Oilwell Varco (NOV 48.55, -0.04), and US Steel (X 42.39, +0.11) are among the more widely held names that are slated to release their results in the morning. DJ30 +66.61 NASDAQ +19.61 SP500 +6.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1739/1.15 bln/891 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2021/547 mln/921

2:00 pm : Stocks have stagnated since a recent attempt to reclaim gains. Still, the tone of this session's trade remains upbeat as the major equity averages stand firmly in positive ground.

Volatility is still up, though. More specifically, the Volatility Index is up 4.3%. DJ30 +62.26 NASDAQ +17.69 SP500 +5.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1689/1.07 bln/935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1975/505 mln/954

1:30 pm : Results from a $10 billion auction of 5-year TIPS drew a yield of -0.55%. Though that was the first negative yield on record, it was widely expected. The auction's bid-to-cover came in at 2.84 with the indirect bidder participation at 39.4%.

Treasuries have been backed down a bit in the wake of the auction. The benchmark 10-year Note now trades with a gain of eight ticks so that its yield is back up to 2.52%.

Meanwhile, stocks have reclaimed some of their gains. The major indices are still off of their session highs, though. DJ30 +63.96 NASDAQ +17.46 SP500 +6.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1722/990 mln/889 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2029/471 mln/899

1:00 pm : Another downturn in the dollar and a bit of upbeat data stoked enough buying to drive the S&P 500 up markedly to within close reach of the psychologically significant 1200 line, but stocks have since handed over a chunk of those gains.

Failure at the G-20 conference to devise a specific plan to support the U.S. dollar in global trade left the greenback weakened against competing currencies. So stiff was pressure that the dollar dropped to a 15-year low against the Japanese yen. The dollar has since cut its loss, but still trails a basket of competing currencies by 0.5%.

Initial weakness in the dollar helped bring about a broad bid for stocks this morning. Though every major sector climbed, materials stocks made the biggest bounce with a gain of more than 2%.

The early advance was complemented by news that existing home sales for September had a record monthly increase of 10%, which is stronger than what had been widely expected.

However, resistance kicked in as the S&P 500 pushed up to a new five-month high just shy of the 1200 line. The dollar's improved position has also taken away some of the enthusiasm of market participants.

Stocks are still in positive territory, but they have spent the past couple of hours steadily drifting slower. Financials have undermined the action by dropping to a 0.4% loss after the sector had been up almost 1% at its session high.

Most of the financial sector's weakness is owed to bank stocks, but diversified financial services giant Citigroup (C 4.18, +0.07) has been strong following news that the stock was added to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.

Treasuries have been strong all session. They are off of their highs in the moments ahead of results from an auction of 5-year TIPS. Results are due at any moment. DJ30 +43.26 NASDAQ +12.83 SP500 +4.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1633/906 mln/956 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1925/434 mln/967

12:30 pm : Sellers have redoubled their efforts to take stocks lower. The S&P 500 has now handed back about two-thirds of the near 1% gain that it had sported at its session high.

The latest move lower has been broad in scope, but financials are becoming an even bigger burden. The sector is now down to a 0.5% loss, which means it is still the worst performing sector this session.

Despite the stock market's recent downturn, Treasuries haven't made any attempt to push to new session highs. Their hesitance comes ahead of results from an auction of 5-year TIPS at 1:00 PM ET. DJ30 +44.01 NASDAQ +12.39 SP500 +3.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1645/824 mln/895 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/401 mln/964

12:00 pm : Financials have retreated into the red, where they now trade with a 0.3% loss. That makes it the worst performing sector as utilities, down 0.2%, make up the only other sector to trade with a loss.

Materials stocks remain strong, though. The sector is still up 2.0% with Dow Chemical (DOW 31.50, +1.30) providing the most support. Of the 31 members in the materials sector, Airgas (ARG 69.95, -0.18) and Pactiv (PTV 33.16, -0.01) are the only two that reside in the red. Airgas is actually scheduled to report its latest earnings results tomorrow morning ahead of the open. DJ30 +69.10 NASDAQ +17.52 SP500 +6.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1719/735 mln/831 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2036/365 mln/834

11:30 am : Financial stocks have fallen under a fit of selling pressure that has taken the sector down to the unchanged line. The sector was up 0.9% at its morning high.

The downturn among financials has been largely led by diversified banks (-0.7%), regional banks (-0.6%), and investment banks and brokerages (-0.3%). In contrast, consumer finance stocks (+1.1%) and multi-line insurers (+1.4%) have provided support to the sector.

Financials haven't really been a part of the stock market's advance in the past couple of weeks. In fact, for the past 10 trading days financials are only up fractionally, whereas the tech sector is up about 5% in that same time. Tech stocks are up another 0.6% this session. DJ30 +80.08 NASDAQ +19.31 SP500 +7.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1725/642 mln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2095/328 mln/755

11:00 am : The S&P 500 came within four points of the 1200 line, but it failed to hold that gain. Selling has since intensified to undercut the stock market's gain. However, the overall tone of trade remains broadly positive with all 10 major sectors still in higher ground.

Despite the positive bias, the Volatility Index is actually up 2.7%. Treasuries are still strong, too. DJ30 +66.68 NASDAQ +15.91 SP500 +7.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1663/520 mln/815 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2087/275 mln/729

10:30 am : Commodities continue to trade with strength, thanks partly to renewed weakness in the dollar. As a whole, commodities are up 1.2%, which has been enough to put the CRB Commodity Index back near its 52-week high.

Among the more widely tracked commodities, oil prices are up 1.8% to $83.15 per barrel, but natural gas prices are down 1.7% to $3.28 per MMBtu.

As for precious metals, gold prices have eased back a bit since this morning so that they now trade with a 0.9% gain at $1336.00 per ounce. Silver prices are just shy of their session highs as they trade with a 2.7% gain at $23.73 per ounce. DJ30 +96.58 NASDAQ +23.48 SP500 +10.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1884/387 mln/568 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2307/212 mln/492

10:00 am : The latest dose of data has helped stocks are extend their opening advance. The S&P 500 is now within close reach of the psychologically significant 1200 line.

Existing home sales for September increased 10% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 4.53 million units, which is greater than the annualized rate of 4.25 million units that had been widely expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. The 10% month-over-month climb is among the strongest on record.

The data has helped drive the broader market to a fresh morning high, but shares of home improvement retailers actually lag a bit as they trade with a 0.9% gain. Shares of homebuilders are up a much more impressive 2.5%, though.

Advancing Sectors: Materials +2.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.3%), Energy (+1.2%), Industrials (+1.1%), Health Care (+1.0%), Tech (+0.8%), Financials (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Utilities (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +113.45 NASDAQ +27.64 SP500 +13.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1893/240 mln/442 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2405/145 mln/332

09:45 am : A broad-based bid has the stock market up to a new five-month high in the early going. Treasuries are up solidly, too.

Among the major sectors in the S&P 500, basic materials stocks are up the most. The materials sector is currently up 2.1%, which is twice the size of the next best performing sector (energy, +2.0%). Materials stocks are currently led by diversified metals and mining plays (+3.3%). Metals and mining plays were also strong in Britain, where they have helped drive the FTSE to a 0.6 gain.

While broad strength has all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 in positive ground this morning, Treasuries have also managed to attract support. Specifically, the benchmark 10-year Note is up 15 ticks so that its yield is just below 2.50% while the 30-year Bond is up almost a full point so that its yield is just below 3.88%. Results from an auction of 5-year TIPS are due at 1 PM ET. DJ30 +77.54 NASDAQ +23.58 SP500 +9.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1851/172 mln/446 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2351/112 mln/347

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.50. Stock futures have drifted off of their morning highs, but a solid start to the week still looks to be in order. The positive tone has been supported by another pullback in the greenback, which currently trails competing currencies by 0.8%. Most of the dollar's decline is owed to strength in the yen, which is up 1.1% after it set a fresh 15-year best versus the dollar overnight. The euro is also up a strong 0.5%, but it is not quite back to the multi-month high that it set just a couple of weeks ago. The pullback in the dollar and the positive tone to premarket trade has also supported a bid for commodities, which are collectively up 1.0% based on the CRB Commodity Index. Existing home sales for September make up the only item on the economic calendar for today. That data will be released at 10:00 AM ET. Earnings have been rather light and inconsequential.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.00. Commodities have caught a strong bid this morning. That has the CRB Commodity Index up 1.0%. Underpinning that move is a 1.2% rise in oil prices to $82.70 per barrel, a 1.4% spike in gold prices to $1343.30 per ounce, and a 2.8% surge in silver prices to $23.75 per ounce. Natural gas has failed to participate in the bounce, though; it is down 1.5% to $3.28 per MMBtu.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.80. Futures for the S&P 500 are still strong. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is up 0.6% amid leadership from Volkswagen and Infineon Tech. The German bourse had been up 0.8% at its session high. France's CAC has come down a bit from its high so that it now trades with a 0.3% gain. LVMH Moet Hennesey, L'Oreal, and Danone have been its best sources of support. BNP Paribas has been a prime laggard, though. Britain's FTSE is currently up 0.6%. Metals and miners Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), Xstrata (XTA), and Anglo American are leaders whereas banking plays Lloyds Group (LYG) and Standard Chartered are laggards. As for eurozone data, new industrial orders for August climbed 5.3% after a 2.4% decline in July.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei fell to a 0.3% loss after it chopped along for most of the session. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 2-to-1 with Kyocera having had the most damaging impact. Fast Retailing attracted support as it extended its rebound up from a multimonth low last week, however. In currency action, Japan's yen hit a 15-year high of 80.4 yen per dollar following the G-20 meeting this past weekend. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng staged a 0.5% gain. It was led by Hong Kong Exchange. Energy plays PetroChina (PTR) and CNOOC (CEO) also provided support, but broader action was somewhat undermined by Industrial & Commercial Bank. Energy plays PetroChina and China Petroleum (SNP) helped mainland China's Shanghai Composite climb 2.6%. Broad supported helped advancing issues outnumber decliners by about 20-to-1.

In emerging and developing economies of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), the International Monetary Fund projects the region's output in 2010 to expand by 4.2%, up from the 2.3% recorded in 2009. Growth in 2011 is projected at 4.8%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.50. Stock futures are up solidly amid another drop in the dollar. The greenback is currently down 0.7% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Among those currencies the yen set a 15-year high against the dollar overnight. Some attribute the moves to a lack of agreement regarding treatment of the dollar in global trade during the G-20 talks this past weekend. Trade in Europe is modestly upbeat at the moment. Action in Asia saw mixed interest, but the Shanghai Composite climbed 2.6% to a six-month high with help from energy plays. Less than 20 names are on Briefing.com's earnings calendar this morning. Not one is likely to move markets. The flow of announcements picks up after the close, when more widely held names like Amgen (AMGN) and Texas Instruments (TXN) report their latest results. Existing home sales numbers for September are due at 10:00 AM ET. Results from an auction of 5-year TIPS are due at 1:00 PM ET.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.50.

06:18 am : Nikkei...9401.16...-25.60...-0.30%. Hang Seng...23627.16...+110.40...+0.50%.

06:18 am : FTSE...5775.27...+33.90...+0.60%. DAX...6651.25...+45.50...+0.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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