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 Post subject: October 21st Thursday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +13.10
PostPosted: Sat Oct 23, 2010 12:06 pm 
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Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Stocks Eke Out Gains
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By Blake Ellis, staff reporter
October 21, 2010: 5:04 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks ended a shade higher Thursday after seesawing throughout the session, as investors balanced strong earnings with building speculation that the Fed's next round of asset-buying won't be as dramatic as anticipated.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 39 points, or 0.35%, the S&P 500 ticked (SPX) up 2 points, or 0.2%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) edged up 2 points, or 0.1%.

Stocks have been on a roller coaster this week -- starting with gains on Monday, diving to 2-month lows on Tuesday, and ending sharply higher Wednesday. Investors have been taking in mixed earnings results, and waiting for clues about the next round of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve.

There has been growing speculation over the past month that the Fed will launch more quantitative easing. The move -- known as QE2 -- would mark the second round of large-scale asset purchases of U.S. Treasuries by the Fed, as part of its effort to get the economy moving.

But comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday suggested that the Fed's action won't be as large as expected, sending the dollar higher and taking steam out of the stock market's early rally.

"Geithner hinting that the dollar isn't as weak as we thought is making people start to think quantitative easing is going to be smaller than expected," said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams. "Markets have been banking on a huge printing of money, so if it's smaller, that's good for the dollar but bad for stocks."

China's growth cools: Helping to spur the market's early run-up, government figures released Thursday showed China's economic growth slowed for the second quarter in a row, easing fears that its economy is growing at an unsustainable pace.

"The report on China's growth was kind of like the story of the three little bears -- [the porridge] wasn't too hot, it wasn't too cold, it was just right," said Tom Schrader, managing director at Stifel Nicolaus.
Global trade wars: China turns up the heat

China's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, grew at an annual rate of 9.6% during the third quarter of 2010.

While that number was still higher than many analysts expected, investors welcomed the report as a sign that China's economy will continue to lead the world recovery.

"If it was too weak it would have scared everyone that their economy is weakening," Schrader said.
Will the markets tank in November?

Economy: The government's weekly jobless claims report showed that the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment insurance was lower than expected, with 452,000 claims filed in the week ended Oct. 16.

A consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 455,000 jobless claims.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.3% in September -- in line with expectations, and up from a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in August.

The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional reading on manufacturing, rose to 1 in October, from a negative 0.7 in September. While a step in the right direction, economists were expecting a slightly higher reading of 1.4.

"The economic data is not so strong that it will eliminate the possibility of QE2, but it lessens the chances," Schrader said. "And markets would definitely prefer not to see the necessity of QE2."

Companies: Traders also welcomed a slew of upbeat earnings reports Thursday.

After the market close, Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) posted a 39% jump in sales and third-quarter earnings per share of 51 cents, topping the 48 cents expected by analysts.
Earnings: So far, so very good - The Buzz

Before the opening bell,McDonald's Corp (MCD, Fortune 500). logged a 10% jump in third-quarter profit -- beating expectations and sending the fast-food chain's stock up 2.6% to a record high of $79.48 per share in early trading.

Nokia (NOK) beat estimates when it announced a third-quarter profit of $737.9 million, compared with a $783 million loss a year earlier. But the mobile phone maker also said it will cut as many as 1,800 jobs as it streamlines its operations. Shares of Nokia rose 4%.

UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) also both beat forecasts on income and revenue. AT&T (T, Fortune 500) beat estimates on revenue, but its profit was skewed by a $8.3 billion gain related to its acquisition of Cingular Wireless in 2006.

Netflix (NFLX) shares surged 13%, after it posted stronger-than-expected earnings after the closing bell Wednesday.
0:00 /1:17Netflix: A big hit

EBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) reported better-than-expected earnings results after the market close Wednesday, sending shares of the company up 6% Thursday.

World markets: Asian markets finished mixed. Japan's benchmark Nikkei was a few points lower, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 0.4%. Shares in Shanghai eased 0.7%.

European markets posted strong gains. The DAX in Germany and the CAC 40 in France both surged 1.3%, while Britain's FTSE 100 jumped 0.5%.

Commodities and Currencies: The dollar climbed against the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound.
Downtrodden dollar near rock bottom

Oil prices for December delivery slipped $1.98 to settle at $80.56 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery dropped $18.60 to $1,325.60 an ounce.

Meanwhile, coffee futures settled more than 2% higher after soaring to the highest level in 13 years amid supply crunch concerns.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, boosting the yield to 2.55%.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The stock market climbed as much as 1% to set a new five-month high, but the move failed to hold amid a bounce by the dollar.

Stocks staged a strong climb in the early going. The only pause came as the S&P 500 came in contact with the five-month high that it had set on Monday, but stocks quickly regained momentum and extended their push to reach their best levels since May.

Initial strength in the stock market was partly owed to a weaker dollar, which surrendered an overnight gain to trade with a loss of 0.4% at its session low. However, the dollar's rally to a 0.4% gain caused market participants to turn against stocks, such that all three major indices retreated into the red before making a mild recovery into the close.

Earnings were also in focus. And even though most companies posted strong reports, participants had a rather fickle reaction.

Industrial giant and Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 78.89, -0.99) posted better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter and augmented that announcement with upside guidance. Eli Lilly (LLY 35.50, -0.51) and UPS (UPS 69.59, -0.06) did the same. However, none of the three was able to muster a gain.

In contrast, eBay (EBAY 27.19, +1.53) bested on the bottom line and issued upside guidance. The stock set a new 52-week high, but finished at its session low. McDonald's (MCD 78.44, +1.03) also set a fresh 52-week high after it served up its own positive earnings surprise.

Despite the broader market's tepid finish, defensive-oriented stocks failed to find much support. That left the utilities sector and the telecom sector to finish with a 0.5% loss. Dow component AT&T (T 28.34, -0.27) was a laggard in the bunch even though it posted in-line earnings results.

Financials also faltered. Their 0.2% loss stemmed from weakness in diversified financial services stocks (-1.8%) and investment banks and brokerage plays (-1.0%), which offset gains among regional banks (+1.1%) following better-than-expected earnings from Fifth Third (FITB 12.80, +0.40), PNC Bank (PNC 53.56, +0.82), SunTrust (STI 26.59, +1.14), and Huntington Banc (HBAN 5.62, +0.02).

Data did not get much of a response out of market participants this session. The latest jobless claims tally fell 23,000 week-over-week to 452,000, which is in stride with the 455,000 initial claims that had been expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. The October Philadelphia Fed Index hit 1.0, which is only slightly below the 1.5 that had been widely forecast. Meanwhile, Leading Indicators for September increased 0.3%, as expected.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%), Industrials (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Tech (+0.1%), Materials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.5%), Utilities (-0.5%), Financials (-0.2%), Energy (-0.1%)DJ30 +38.60 NASDAQ +2.28 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.6% SP400 -0.2% SP500 +2.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1006/2.14 bln/1597 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1450/1.05 bln/1507

3:30 pm : The energy group led commodities lower today after it shed 2.5%. The precious metals group was right behind it, with a 2.4% sell off. Nov natural gas dropped 3.6% to finish at $3.37 per MMBtu, in the wake of the this morning's bearish inventory data. It traded to fresh 13-month lows at $3.72 per MMBtu. Dec crude oil ended down 2.4% to $80.56 per barrel. Strength in the dollar, coupled with weaker equities, weighed on crude oil throughout the session.

Dec gold shed 1.5% to finish at $1325.10 per ounce, while Dec silver ended down 2.9% to $23.14 per ounce. Both metals dropped sharply on the strength in the dollar. DJ30 +34.85 NASDAQ +1.30 SP500 +1.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 982/1.8 bln/1618 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1474/785.4 mln/1485

3:00 pm : Treasuries are at their worst levels of the session as selling has picked up across the complex. Yields across the curve are elevated with the 10-yr yield higher by more than 5 basis points to 2.533%.

The yield curve has steepened over the course of the session; with the 2-10-yr spread swinging to 218 from yesterday's closing print of 213.4. After tightening to 138.1, the 10-30-yr spread has climbed back to unchanged on the session at 141.DJ30 6.85 NASDAQ -8.03 SP500 -1.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 766/1.64 bln/1832 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1208/716.3 mln/1732

2:30 pm : The major market indices have bounced off their lowest levels of the session, but still remain in negative territory. The Nasdaq (-0.6%) is seeing the heaviest losses while the Dow (-0.1%) is the best performing of the major indices. Selling has been broad based with some of the traditionally safer sectors (telecom and utilities) seeing the biggest declines.

The selling pressure in telecom stocks has been the strongest with the S&P 500 Telecommunication Services Index down 1.0%. AT&T (T 28.16 -0.45) is one of the weakest components of the index despite posting earnings in-line with expectations. Its rival, Verizon (VZ 32.27 -0.37), is also slipping on the report. DJ30 -14.38 NASDAQ -15.55 SP500 -4.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 693/1.52 bln/1901 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1048/662.5 mln/1881

2:00 pm : After stabilizing for not quite an hour the stock market has succumbed to another wave of selling, which has taken the stock market to a session low in the red.

The latest leg down has come amid a broad-based selling effort. As such, seven of the major sectors are now in the red -- only consumer discretionary (+0.4%), consumer staples (+0.3%), and industrials (+0.2%) are still in positive territory.

Natural resource plays have been hit hardest. In turn, energy stocks are collectively down 0.8% and materials stocks have fallen to a 0.7% loss as a group.

The Volatility Index has moved higher in response to the stock market's latest round of selling. It had been down more than 4% this morning, but it is now just fractionally in the red. DJ30 -6.36 NASDAQ -12.49 SP500 -3.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 738/1.36 bln/1842 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1089/592 mln/1819

1:30 pm : The stock market was able to steady its recent slide by attracting support at the neutral line, but commodities have come under increased pressure, such that the CRB Commodity Index is now down 1.0%.

Weakness in the commodity space is broad as oil prices drop to a 2.0% loss at $80.85 per barrel, natural gas prices dive 4.4% to $3.38 per MMBtu, gold prices drop 1.4% to $1324 per ounce, and silver prices slide 2.9% to $23.18 per ounce. DJ30 +44.88 NASDAQ +2.44 SP500 +2.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 936/1.25 bln/1625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1416/541 mln/1487

1:00 pm : Buying on the back of another strong batch of earnings had generated enough momentum to take the stock market to a new five-month high this morning, but stocks have since rolled over amid gyrations in the dollar.

Caterpillar (CAT 78.11, -1.77), eBay (EBAY 27.86, +2.20), Eli Lilly (LLY 35.37, -0.64), and UPS (UPS 69.20, -0.45) all generated better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter and augmented their announcements with upside guidance, but their shares have been mixed. Meanwhile, McDonald's (MCD 78.81, +1.40) served its own upside earnings surprise that helped the stock set a fresh 52-week high.

Gains have been more consistent among regional banks like Fifth Third (FITB 12.70, +0.30), PNC Bank (PNC 53.8, +1.14), SunTrust (STI 26.21, +0.76), and Huntington Banc (HBAN 5.78, +0.18). Each of them exceeded the consensus earnings estimates from Wall Street. Despite their strength, the financial sector has retreated to a loss of 0.3% after it had been up about 1% at its session high.

The broader market was also in much better shape this morning. At its session high, it was up about 1%. That was enough to take it to its best level since May.

The stock market has failed to hold that gain in the face of a bounce by the greenback, which has spent most of the session swinging between positive and negative territory until it recently pushed to its highest level since overnight trade. The dollar is now up 0.3% against competing currencies.

The dollar's swings come despite in-line data. Among the pieces, initial jobless claims fell to 452,000, September Leading Indicators increased 0.3%, and the October Philadelphia Fed Index hit 1.0. DJ30 +39.68 NASDAQ +3.53 SP500 +2.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 950/1.14 bln/1597 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1464/498 mln/1429

12:30 pm : The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 0.6%, which puts it at a fresh session low. Xilinx (XLNX 25.16, -0.85) has been among the heavier drags on the space due largely to a recent downgrade.

Despite the weakness of semiconductor issues, the broader tech sector has still managed to stage a 0.3% gain. Most of that is owed to eBay (EBAY 27.98, +2.32), which posted an impressive report for its latest quarter.

Consumer discretionary plays are in the best shape, though. That sector is up an enviable 1.2%, which is twice as much as what the next best performing sector (industrials, +0.6%). Home improvement retailers (+3.2%) and homebuilders (+2.3%) are primary leaders within the discretionary sector. DJ30 +49.76 NASDAQ +6.75 SP500 +4.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1084/1.06 bln/1427 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 16216/450 mln/1230

12:00 pm : Sellers recently intensified their efforts and, in doing so, took the stock market back to where it started the session. Stocks have since stabilized and are now attempting to reclaim gains.

While the recent slide was broad based, financials, tech, and energy stocks were among those that were hit the hardest. Each of the three sectors momentarily dipped into the red after they had all been up about 1% at their session highs. The three sectors now trade with gains of 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.1%, respectively. DJ30 +53.81 NASDAQ +9.00 SP500 +5.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1154/968 mln/1340 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/405 mln/1158

11:30 am : The major equity averages recently rolled over from their session highs. They handed back about half of their gains in the process.

The downturn among stocks coincided with a bounce by the dollar. Though the greenback's upward move was mild, it was enough to undo its loss. As such, the Dollar Index is now flat for the session.

Treasuries remain under pressure, even after the stock market's recent swing lower. Specifically, the benchmark 10-year Note is down 10 ticks. DJ30 +62.51 NASDAQ +14.04 SP500 +6.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1460/810 mln/979 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1963/335 mln/868

11:00 am : Telecom stocks have been lagging all morning. The sector's 0.2% loss makes it the only major sector currently in the red.

Among telecom plays, integrated giants Verizon (VZ 32.56, -0.08) and AT&T (T 28.46, -0.15) have been the heaviest drags. Their slip comes in the wake of in-line earnings results from AT&T.

Notably, this isn't the only session in which telecom has traded with relative weakness. Over the course of the past 10 trading sessions telecom has advanced a mere 0.5% while the S&P 500 has gained 2.6%. DJ30 +102.69 NASDAQ +23.53 SP500 +10.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1762/650 mln/648 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2265/268 mln/537

10:30 am : After taking a bit of a breather the S&P 500 has extended its morning advance to a fresh session high, which also puts it at its best level since May.

Action among commodities has been a bit more mixed, though.

Natural gas inventory for the week ended October 15 showed a build of 93 bcf when a build of 90 bcf had been widely expected. Prices pushed to new morning lows around $3.40 per MMBtu in response. They have since recovered a few pennies to trade at $3.43 per MMBtu with a 3.3% loss.

As for oil, it was last quoted with a 0.4% loss at $82.25 per barrel after it had surged close to 3% in the prior session.

Among precious metals, gold prices were last quoted with a 0.1% gain at $1344.50 per ounce and silver was last seen at $23.92 per ounce with a 0.3% gain. DJ30 +96.34 NASDAQ +22.15 SP500 +10.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1697/491 mln/626 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2240/212 mln/532

10:00 am : The stock market's opening climb took the S&P 500 to the multi-month high that it had set on Monday, but resistance there has caused it to take a bit of a breather.

There has been no immediate reaction to the latest dose of data, which includes an October Philadelphia Fed Index reading of 1.0 and September Leading Indicators that showed a 0.3% increase. Both were basically on par with what had been expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+1.3%), Financials (+0.6%), Energy (+0.6%), Industrials (+0.6%), Tech (+0.6%), Materials (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Health Care (+0.3%), Utilities (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.3%)DJ30 +61.38 NASDAQ +15.59 SP500 +6.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1554/288 mln/682 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1945/130 mln/734

09:45 am : Stocks are climbing sharply in the opening minutes of trade. The sudden run up comes as the dollar drops back into negative territory to trade with a 0.2% loss.

Among the major sectors in the broader market, consumer discretionary plays are the strongest. The sector is up 1.2%. However, eBay (EBAY 28.24, +2.58) is among the best performers on an individual basis. It posted better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter and augmented that announcement with an upside earnings forecast. The stock's 10% surge has taken it to its best level in about seven months. DJ30 +63.04 NASDAQ +17.50 SP500 +6.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/166 mln/622 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2093/84 mln/543

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.30. A positive start to trade is portended by stock futures, though the optimistic tone of premarket trade has waned a bit with the dollar's move out of negative territory to a slight gain. There haven't been any headlines to account for the greenback's reversal. In fact, the only data out this morning -- initial weekly jobless claims -- were on par with expectations. Earnings continue to exceed expectations, generally speaking. Many of the more widely held names have also issued strong forecasts. Though macro concerns persist for many investors, companies continue to show improved fundamentals.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50. The dollar's move into positive territory has undercut futures for the S&P 500. Europe's major bourses have also pulled back a bit in recent action. Germany's DAX opened with a narrow loss, but it has since staged a steady ascent so that it now sports a 0.8% gain. Henkel AG and Volkswagen have been the primary drivers of broader gains. Bank stocks have been weak, though. As such, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are both laggards. As for data, Germany's PMI Manufacturing improved to 56.6 in October from 55.1 in September. France's CAC has climbed to a 0.9% gain. Food and beverage plays like Danone, LVMH Moet Hennesey, and Pernod-Ricard are currently leaders. Financial issues Axa (AXA) and Societe Generale are in the red, though. As for Britain's FTSE, it is up 0.6% amid strength in metals and mining plays like Rio Tinto (RIO), Anglo American, and BHP Billiton (BHP). Health care plays, collectively down 1.3%, have hampered action. Data out of the United Kingdom indicated that Retail Sales in that zone slipped 0.2% in September after a 0.7% slide in the prior month. Eurozone data featured an October Manufacturing PMI of 54.1, up from 53.7 in September.

Stocks in Asia closed mixed after China reported that its GDP increased 9.6% year-over-year - slower than the 10.3% clip that was posted in the previous quarter. The Shanghai Composite finished 0.7% lower, though materials stocks (+2.0%) showed strength. Financials (-2.2%) acted as a drag with Agricultural Bank of China among the primary laggards. Banking plays like China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and HSBC (HBC) actually helped Hong Kong's Hang Seng gain 0.4%. China Mobile weighed on trade as telecom stocks collectively lost 1.5%. Japan's Nikkei finished fractionally lower as its 50-day moving average provided support for the second straight session. TDK Corp and Canon (CAJ) both dragged on trade as exporters continued to grapple with a stronger yen, but Softbank and Kyocera (KYO) offered support. Japan's latest data indicated that an index of all industry activity fell 0.4% in August after a 1.0% increase in the prior month.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.80. Stock futures recently drifted off of their morning highs, but they have since made a modest uptick with the release of the latest dose of data. Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 16 totaled 452,000, which is down 23,000 week-over-week and largely in stride with the 455,000 initial claims that had been expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. The four-week moving average eased to 458,000 from 462,250. Continuing claims came in at 4.44 million, down about 9,000 from the prior week.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.00. Strength from the prior session has extended into this morning's premarket action with the help of renewed weakness in the dollar, which is currently down 0.2% against a basket of competing currencies. Another big batch of better-than-expected earnings has also helped sentiment. Among the more widely-held names, eBay (EBAY) bested expectations and issued upside guidance. Eli Lilly (LLY), UPS (UPS), and Caterpillar (CAT) each did the same. Also, regional banking plays Fifth Third (FITB), PNC Bank (PNC), SunTrust (STI), and Huntington Banc (HBAN) all beat on the bottom line. The latest initial jobless claims tally is due at the bottom of the hour. Then come the Philadelphia Fed Index for October and leading economic indicators at 10:00 AM ET.

07:53 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.00.

07:49 am : Nikkei...9376.48...-5.10...-0.10%. Hang Seng...23649.48...+93.00...+0.40%.

07:49 am : FTSE...5775.54...+46.60...+0.80%. DAX...6583.94...+59.10...+0.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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