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 Post subject: October 8th Friday 2010 Emini TF (No Trades)
PostPosted: Fri Oct 08, 2010 6:09 pm 
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No trades today for me due to a schedule personal day off from the markets in which I'll return to trading on Tuesday.

------------------------------

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Bloomberg Video @ Stocks Rise as Dow Tops 11,000 for First Time Since May
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Elizabeth Faublas reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks gained, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 11,000 for the first time since before the May 6 crash, as worse-than-estimated jobs data raised speculation the Federal Reserve will enact stimulus measures.

Jobs Stink, Dow Surges. What's Up?
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By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporter
October 8, 2010: 4:55 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday, with the Dow crossing 11,000 and closing above the key level for the first time in five months.

The buying frenzy came after a sharp drop in the overall jobs figures in September boosted the chances of the Fed stepping in to stimulate the economy.

"The jobs number was terrible, but it clinches the deal for another round of stimulus from the Fed on Nov. 3, and that's why the markets are screaming today," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose as much as 84 points, or 0.5%, to a fresh-five month intraday high of 11,032. It eased from that level in the afternoon, but still finished with a 58-point gain, led by Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500). The Dow closed at 11,006, its highest level since May 3.

The last time the blue chip index traded above that level was just days before the"flash crash" that sent the Dow tumbling nearly 1,000 points in one day.

The S&P 500 (SPX) also spiked to its highest level since May, gaining 4 points, or 0.6%, on Friday. And the tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) added 18 points, or 0.8%, and to finish at a fresh five-month high.

Markets posted their fifth weekly gain in the last six weeks: the Dow increased 1.6%, the S&P climbed 1.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.3%.
How to earn a cool 4%

All three major indexes had been drifting between small gains and losses during the first two hours of the session before the rally kicked in.

Jobs and the Fed: With unemployment figures remaining one of the defining measures of the recovery, the Labor Department's monthly jobs report has been a major market mover all year.

"The September report is another sign that the recovery remains on shaky grounds," said Peter Tuz, president at Chase Investment Council.

The economy lost 95,000 jobs in September, the government said, though the private sector added 64,000 jobs. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.6%.

"The economy's sluggishness also increases the odds of the Fed pumping more money into the financial system, which is viewed as a positive sign among some investors, because it adds liquidity to the system," Tuz said

He expects the market to continue moving higher, in part on speculation about Fed action. Stocks could also gain some traction if third-quarter financial results start coming out stronger than expected.
0:00 /01:21Farrell: We underrated unemployment

Economy: Investors also eyed a report on wholesale inventories from the Commerce Department. Inventories increased 0.8% in August, following a 1.5% gain in July. Economists were expecting a 0.4% rise.

Companies: After the bell Thursday, Investors welcomed strong earnings from Alcoa -- the first of the Dow components to report third quarter results.

The aluminum giant earned 9 cents per share -- excluding special items -- topping Wall Street's estimates for 5 cents per share. Sales rose 15% to $5.3 billion, beating forecasts for $4.96 billion in revenue. Shares of Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) rose 5.7%.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) dropped 1% in the afternoon, after the bank announced it is suspending foreclosures in all 50 states as its reviews possible documentation problems. Last week, Bank of America froze foreclosures in the 23 states where a court's approval is required to foreclosure on a home.

French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) said that it will cut 1,700 jobs in the United States before the end of the year. The company's stock rose 0.5%.

World markets: European stocks closed mixed Friday. Britain's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 edged lower, and the DAX in Germany added 0.3%.

Asian markets finished the session mixed. Japan's Nikkei index fell nearly 1% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 0.3%. Coming back from a week-long holiday, China's Shanghai Composite soared 3.1% after Moody's said it may raise the nation's debt rating.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar remained under pressure, as the greenback fell against the Japanese yen and the British pound. It was flat against the euro.

The dollar index, which measures the buck against a basket of currencies, has dropped nearly 1% this week.

Gold futures climbed Friday, but remained below record highs hit earlier this week. Prices rose $10.13 an ounce Friday to settle at $1,345.30 an ounce. The precious metal settled at an all-time high of $1,347.70 Wednesday, and touched an intraday high of $1,366 an ounce on Thursday.

The price of crude oil for November delivery added 99 cents to settle $82.66 per barrel.

Bonds: The price rose on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury, pushing down the yield to 2.38%.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks finished the week at their best levels since May as participants regarded disappointing jobs data as fodder for further quantitative easing. Trading volume remained unimpressive, though.

Premarket traders were initially disappointed by news that September nonfarm payrolls fell by 95,000 and private payrolls increased by 64,00, given that the consensus had called for no net change to nonfarm payrolls while private payrolls had been expected to increase by 74,000. However, displeasure was discharged by the realization that most of the drop in nonfarm payrolls was due to government layoffs and that weak economic data could support further quantitative easing.

The latter point caused the dollar to drop from an early gain into the red. Though it fought for a bit, the greenback ultimately succumbed to selling efforts so that it spent the afternoon in negative territory. It settled with a 0.2% loss against competing currencies. The yen made one of the best moves against the greenback to hit a new 15-year high. The yen settled the session with a 0.4% gain and is now up more than 13% for the year.

With the dollar's weakness confirmed, stocks were able to stage a strong gain that took the Dow back above 11,000 for the first time in about five months. The broader S&P 500 also hit its highest level in about five months.

Materials stocks were the best overall performers. The sector's 2.0% gain was led by Dow component Alcoa (AA 12.89, +0.69), which ripped higher through its 200-day moving average with help from better-than-expected earnings and a general support for commodities-related plays.

Commodities were spurred sharply higher amid the dollar's decline. Specifically, the CRB Commodity Index spiked 2.7% to a near two-year high.

An overall positive tone to trade took the Volatility Index down to its lowest level in five months. It pulled up a bit from that mark, but still settled about 4% lower for the session.

Despite the significance of today's headlines, many investors remained on the sidelines. In turn, share volume on the NYSE failed, once again, to meet the 50-day moving average of 1 billion shares. Three months ago the 50-day average was at 1.5 billion.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+2.0%), Energy (+1.1%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.1%), Industrials (+0.8%), Tech (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Financials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.3%)DJ30 +57.90 NASDAQ +18.24 NQ100 +0.8% R2K +1.4% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +7.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1887/2.01 bln/736 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2207/945 mln/748

3:30 pm : Broad strength among commodities helped the CRB Commodity Index spike 2.7% for its strongest single-session surge in about 11 months. The move took the CRB to its highest level in close to two years.

Among the more widely watched commodities, oil prices climbed 1.2% to $82.63 per barrel after some early weakness. Meanwhile, natural gas prices finished 1.0% higher at $3.65 per MMBtu.

Precious metals couldn't quite make it back to the highs of the prior session. Still, gold gained 0.8% to finish pit trade at $1345.50 per ounce and silver settled 1.2% higher at $23.16 per ounce. DJ30 +59.45 NASDAQ +18.36 SP500 +6.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1874/1.65 bln/740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2173/652 mln/783

3:00 pm : Only an hour remains before the trading week is over. At this point, the S&P 500 is up 1.5% for the week, the Dow is up 1.6% for the week, and the Nasdaq is on pace for a 1.2% weekly gain.

Trading volume remains unimpressive as fewer than 600 million shares have been exchanged, so far, on the NYSE. Trading volume for the past 50 sessions stands just above 1.0 billion. Three months ago the 50-day average was at 1.5 billion. DJ30 +53.77 NASDAQ +15.87 SP500 +5.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1798/1.51 bln/788 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2095/596 mln/835

2:30 pm : The broader market continues to sport a solid gain, but shares of PepsiCo (PEP 65.40, -0.70) are down for the second straight session. Yesterday the stock was pressured in response to the company's forecast, which featured a trimmed top end of its growth outlook, but this session's slide comes amid word that the stock was removed from the Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List. DJ30 +55.10 NASDAQ +15.71 SP500 +6.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1764/1.39 bln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2101/550 mln/836

2:00 pm : Stocks recently pulled back a bit from their session highs. The dip comes in conjunction with an uptick in the dollar, which has cut its loss to less than 0.1%. Despite the doldrums of the dollar over the past few months, the greenback is still down just 0.6% in 2010. Meanwhile, the euro, which is largely responsible for recent weakness in the dollar, is actually down 2.9% year to date, and the yen is up 13.4% for the year. DJ30 +49.80 NASDAQ +11.29 SP500 +4.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/1.28 bln/913 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1989/502 mln/933

1:30 pm : The major averages remain near session highs. The advance comes amid broad-based strength in that eight of the 10 major sectors are in positive territory -- only consumer staples stocks, down fractionally, and telecom, down 0.3%, are in the red.

Gains are even more pronounced among small-caps, which are up 1.1%, according to the Russell 2000. Quantum Corp (QTM 2.34, +0.34) is a leader among small-caps after it was given an analyst upgrade.

Such strength has taken the Volatility Index, often euphemistically dubbed the Fear Gauge, down 5.5% to its lowest level in five months. DJ30 +56.84 NASDAQ +14.06 SP500 +6.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1651/1.18 bln/869 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2032/460 mln/862

1:00 pm : Swings by the dollar left stocks without much direction in the early going, but they have since staged a strong climb that has the Dow back above 11,000 for the first time since May.

Ahead of the open, participants were primarily focused on the September payrolls report. The report showed that nonfarm payrolls fell by 95,000, which contrasts sharply with the consensus call for no net change. Most of that miss was owed to government layoffs, though. Still, private payrolls increased a smaller-than-expected 64,000.

The jobs report initially had a negative effect on the mood of participants, but the idea that weak economic data bolsters the case for further quantitative easing caused the dollar to swing. Stocks took their cues from the dollar during the first part of the session.

With the dollar now stuck in the red, currently down 0.1% after it had been up nicely ahead of the open, stocks have made their way markedly higher. In fact, both the S&P 500 and the Dow are at their best levels in about five months.

The dollar's decline has also hiked commodities, such that the CRB Commodity Index is up 2.5% to a two-year high.

Broader market support and higher commodity prices have the materials sector up an enviable 2.2%, double the gains of the next best performing sector (consumer discretionary, +1.1%). Dow component Alcoa (AA 12.97, +0.77) is a leader in the space, not only because of demand for materials-related stocks, but also because of its better-than-expected earnings. Buyers have taken shares of AA up through the stock's 200-day average to a near five-month high.

Though stocks and commodities are in strong shape, Treasuries have also found favor. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note, currently down to 2.35%, fell to a 52-week low of 2.33% earlier. DJ30 +62.10 NASDAQ +14.66 SP500 +6.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1565/1.09 bln/935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2007/425 mln/884

12:30 pm : The stock market remains near session highs into mid-day, which also represent multi-month highs for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. At current levels, the S&P 500 is up 1.5% on the week and up 4.3% year to date.

This week's upward move precedes the start of the third quarter earnings season, with several big names due out with their quarterly earnings reports next week. While Monday's calendar is sparse, the earnings action picks up on Tuesday (10/12) with tech-bellwether Intel (INTC 19.46, +0.07) reporting after the close. On Wednesday (10/13) we get the first earnings report from a major financial, with JP Morgan (JPM 39.65, +0.13) due out before the open. On Thursday (10/14), the market will digest results from Safeway (SWY 21.00, -0.24) before the bell and Google (GOOG 534.33, +4.32) after the close. Finally on Friday, General Electric (GE 17.21, +0.16) and Charles Schwab (SCHW 14.19, +0.04) are due out before the open.DJ30 +48.21 NASDAQ +8.49 SP500 +5.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1394/957.29/1060 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1897/376.94/976

12:00 pm : After a back-and-forth start to the day, the stock market has extended to session highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reclaiming the 11,000 level for the first time since May 4, before the "flash crash."

Today's modest +0.5% gain follows the pre-market employment data, which was headlined by a -95K Nonfarm Payrolls reading. This was well below the consensus expectation for no net change.

Although the headline numbers came in below the consensus expectations, after digging into the data it turns out that the negative headline number was driven by government layoffs, making the report more benign than it may appear at first glance. This interpretation, combined with the idea that weak economic data strengthens the argument for additional quantitative easing (the purchase of financial assets with dollars), has helped stocks find a bid off their initial reaction lows. The dollar, which has recently been under pressure on the idea that further quantitative easing measures will be taken, is marginally lower today with the Dollar Index currently -0.09 at 77.31.DJ30 +55.97 NASDAQ +11.95 SP500 +5.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1463/822.91/963 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1874/336.10/969

11:30 am : While the broader market has improved off the open and is now showing modest gains, the agriculture sector is a notable standout in today's session, with related stocks/commodities trading sharply higher following bullish USDA reports.

The USDA released its October supply/demand report, which is very bullish for corn futures. The Dept. slashed end-of-crop-year inventory (ending stocks) expectations by 19.2% to 902 million in the U.S., from 1.116 billion. Global corn inventory expectations fell 2.4% to 132.36 million metric tons (mmt). The USDA's initial corn inventory estimate for the 2010/11 crop year, which was first issued in May, called for inventory levels of 1.818 billion. This shows that the current 902 million bushel level is 50% below original expectations. The primary driver of the inventory reduction today came from a 4.1% reduction in corn yield expectations (to 155.8 from 162.5).

The report has lit a fire under the ag stocks, with strength in Fertilizer (CF +10.2%, IPI +10.2%, MOS +7.5%, AGU +7.5%, POT +2.4%), Farm equipment (AGCO +8.5%, CNH +6.8%, DE +5.7%), Seed (MON +4.7%, SYT +4.2%) and Irrigation (LNN +6.3%) stocks, as well as ag-related ETFs (JJG 9.6%, DBA 4.3%), both of which are challenging 52-week highs. However, livestock names are negative affected by rising grain prices, which is causing weakness in TSN (-7.0%), SFD (-5.8%) and SAFC (-4.9%).

Separately, when pit trading opened in ag futures at 10:30am ET, corn, wheat and soybean futures all opened limit up on the bullish USDA monthly supply/demand report. Dec wheat is up 60 cents (or +9.1%) at $7.1925 per bushel, November soybeans are up 70 cents (or +6.5%) at $11.45 per bushel and Dec corn is up 30 cents (or +6.0%) at $5.2825 per bushel. DJ30 +50.06 NASDAQ +5.83 SP500 +4.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1253/713.9/1109 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1764/298.92/1082

11:00 am : Stocks have recovered from a recent slip to session lows. The major averages remain mixed, though.

Materials stocks continue to sport a strong lead over the rest of the market. The sector is now up 1.8%. Part of that move is still owed to increasing strength among commodities, which are collectively up 2.4%, according to the CRB Commodity Index. The move has the CRB at a new 2010 high.

Treasuries have found renewed favor. As such, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is down to 2.35%, which makes for its lowest level in more than a year. DJ30 +31.90 NASDAQ -2.55 SP500 +2.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1008/580 mln/1300 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1542/250 mln/1250

10:30 am : Most commodities pushed higher in recent trade after a notable decline in the dollar index, which fell back into negative territory, near session lows of 77.135.

October crude oil rallied at the open of pit trading and moved into positive territory and new session highs of $82.57 per barrel. Crude is now just above the unchanged line at $81.80 per barrel.

October natural gas rallied exactly one hour ahead of crude, hitting its own new session highs of $3.68 per MMBtu. The energy component has since pulled back and is now 0.7% higher at $3.65 per MMBtu.

Precious metals also rallied a couple of hours ago. December silver hit new morning highs of $23.02 per ounce a short while ago and is now 1.5% higher at $22.92 per ounce. December gold is back near session highs of $1346.60 per ounce, now up 0.5% at $1342.00 per ounce.

The USDA issued a bullish monthly supply/demand report this morning for corn futures. Pit trading in corn begins at 10:30am ET. DJ30 -17.71 NASDAQ -12.94 SP500 -2.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 882/419.7 mln/1348 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1196/186.9 mln/1530

10:00 am : The stock market continues to trade in choppy fashion during the opening minutes of trade. Its moves remain largely contingent on the direction of the dollar, which happens to be down about 0.2% at the moment.

The dollar's dip has bolstered buying in commodities, which are collectively up 1.1%, according to the CRB Commodity Index, after they started the session with a slight loss.

Buying among commodities has provided additional support to basic materials stocks, such as steel (+2.1%), diversified metals and miners (+2.7%), and fertilizer and agricultural chemicals plays (+3.6%).

Aluminum stocks are up a hefty 5.5% amid support for commodities and materials-related stocks, but most of that move is actually owed to better-than-expected earnings from Dow component Alcoa (AA 12.85, +0.65). DJ30 +19.90 NASDAQ -1.66 SP500 +1.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/250 mln/975 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1589/120 mln/1052

09:45 am : Materials stocks were pressured in the prior session, but they are up a sharp 1.3% this session. Their rebound builds on the gains they had seen earlier in the week, such that the sector is on pace for a 2.4% weekly gain. For comparison, the S&P 500 is only up little more than 1% for the week.

Telecom continues to lag, though. The sector has now trailed the broader market for three straight sessions -- its 0.3% decline has it on pace for a fifth straight slide for a weekly loss of 1.3%. DJ30 +29.02 NASDAQ +1.57 SP500 +2.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 970/150 mln/953 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/77 mln/1124

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Premarket trade has been mostly directed by the dollar, which has trimmed some of its recent gains to trade just 0.1% higher against competing currencies. Meanwhile, participants have generally shrugged off a better-than-expected bottom line from Dow component Alcoa (AA), which unofficially began earnings season with its quarterly announcement last evening. Disappointment over the latest nonfarm payrolls report has also had little lasting impacton the mood of morning traders. Though not likely to be a major catalyst for trade, wholesale inventory numbers for August are coming up at 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.30. Futures for the S&P 500 are back under pressure, but Germany's DAX has recovered from a 0.5% loss to trade with a fractional gain. Commerzbank and Volkswagen have been a key sources of leadership. Man SE remains a source of weakness, though. France's CAC has cut its loss so that it is now down a relatively tame 0.2%. BNP Paribas and Carrefour continue to act as drags, but GDF Suez and ArcelorMittal (MT) have provided support. Britain's FTSE has had a harder time trimming its loss. It is still down 0.4% as declining issues outnumber advancers by about 3-to-1. Barclays (BCS) has been one of the biggest burdens following word that a Gulf investment fund hedged its position in the company. Weakness in BCS has spread to HSBC (HBC). However, metals plays BHP Billiton (BHP), Xstrata, and Rio Tinto (RTP) have managed to remain strong in the face of broader weakness.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei rolled over in the second half of its session to settle at its low. Its downturn was led by Fast Retailing, Fanuc LTD, and Kyocera (KYO). Secom, Panasonic (PC), and Daiichi Sankyo showed resilience. The Japanese yen set a new 15-year best below 82 yen per dollar earlier this morning. The yen is currently up 0.4% to 82.1 yen per dollar. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced a mere 0.3% as strength in Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Tencent Holdings, and China Life Insurance was offset by weakness in HSBC, China Mobile, CNOOC (CEO), and PetroChina (PTR). As an aside, Moody's has put Hong Kong's ratings on review for possible upgrade. China's ratings are also on review by Moody's for possible upgrade. Moody's put on review for upgrade Development Bank of China and Agricultural Development Bank of China, but PetroChina and China Shenhua were leaders in the Shanghai Composite's 3.1% rally, which followed an extended holiday. The Composite now trades at a five-month high.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Stock futures initially dropped markedly with the release of the latest monthly payrolls data, but they were quick to retrace the move as the dollar ran into selling of its own. According to September data, nonfarm payrolls fell 95,000, which comes in stark contrast to the call for no net change made by economists polled by Briefing.com. Private payrolls increased 64,000, which is less than the 74,000 increase that had been widely expected. The unemployment rate remained at 9.6%, despite calls for it to rise to 9.7%.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80. Dow component Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season last evening with better-than-expected results. Micron (MU) was also out. Its bottom line came short of the consensus. However, most attention remains fixed on the September nonfarm payrolls report, which is due at 8:30 AM ET. Uncertainty ahead of that report has stock futures in the red. It has also propped up Treasuries, such that yields on Notes with 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year maturities set record lows in early morning trade. A stronger dollar has also added to early morning weakness as stocks continue to take cues from the greenback's moves. Most of the greenback's gain has come against the euro, which is currently down 0.3%. Europe's major equity bourses are also down modestly. Asia saw trade diverge overnight as Japan's Nikkei fell 1.0% and China's Shanghai Composite rallied 3.1% after it reopened from a long holiday layoff. Moody's recently placed on review for possible upgrade China's government bond rating of A1.

06:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80.

06:38 am : Nikkei...9588.88...-95.90...-1.00%. Hang Seng...22944.18...+59.90...+0.30%.

06:38 am : FTSE...5621.94...-40.00...-0.70%. DAX...6250.39...-25.90...-0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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