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 Post subject: October 7th Thursday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +16.70
PostPosted: Fri Oct 08, 2010 6:03 pm 
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Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Bloomberg Video @ Stocks Decline as Shares of Commodity Producers Retreat
Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lower for a second day, as mining and energy companies fell after commodity prices erased gains and PepsiCo Inc. led consumer-staples shares lower.

Stocks Sag Ahead Of Monthly Jobs Report

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By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporter
October 7, 2010: 4:52 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks finished mixed after a sluggish session Thursday afternoon, as cautious investors paused and geared up for the monthly jobs report due Friday.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) closed down 19 points, or 0.2%. The blue chip index started off the day with a pop and was less than 2 points shy of the 11,000 mark, a level it hasn't traded at since May. But the Dow drifted as the session wore on and sank almost 75 points before recovering.

The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 2 points, or 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) added 3 points, or 0.1%.

Stocks surged earlier this week, with all three major indexes hitting 5-month highs. But investors have had trouble keeping up that momentum, as reports showed continued weakness in the labor market.

Some of that sentiment briefly lifted Thursday morning as weekly jobless claims fell to a 3-month low, but traders remain wary ahead of the the true test -- Friday's monthly payrolls report.

"We're likely to have a muted day on Wall Street because the of September jobs report coming up tomorrow," said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. "We still have incredible weakness in the job market, so there is some concern leading up to the numbers."

According to a consensus of economists polled by Briefing.com, the number of jobs is expected to remain flat in the upcoming monthly report. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to have ticked up to 9.7% from 9.6%.

Ghriskey added that investors will also be cautious as companies begin reporting third-quarter financial results.

While PepsiCo (PEP, Fortune 500) reported results in line with forecasts before the bell Thursday, Ghriskey said the company's performance is not as reflective of broader economic conditions as a company like aluminum maker Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500). Alcoa, which delivered results after the market close Thursday, will also be in focus during Friday's trading session.

Stocks also felt some pressure Thursday afternoon as the dollar gained ground. Though it remained broadly weaker, the buck clawed back and rallied against the euro, which had climbed above $1.40 earlier Thursday. It also moved higher versus the pound.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of rival currencies, gained almost 0.4% before easing back.

Economy: The initial jobless claims number was the lowest in nearly 3 months, providing a breath of fresh air to the market. The Labor Department on Thursday reported that jobless claims totaled 445,000 in the week ended Oct. 2 -- down 11,000 from the prior week.

Economists were expecting the government to report 455,000 Americans filed for unemployment for the first time last week, pointing to continued weakness in the job market.

Investors are also eyeing retailers' September same-store sales figures Thursday for indications about consumer spending. Thomson Reuters, which tracks same-store sales for a group of 28 national chains, said total sales for the group rose 2.8% in September -- better than its initial forecast of a 2.1% gain in the month.

Companies: Rumors that Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) is preparing a version of its iPhone for Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) -- the phone is currently only carried by AT&T (T, Fortune 500) -- started swirling again, after the Wall Street Journal published a report saying the phone may be on shelves early next year. Apple's stock edged higher as Verizon's slipped.

PepsiCo (PEP, Fortune 500) was the first major company to report third-quarter results Thursday. Pepsi earned $1.22 per share during the quarter, in line with analysts' forecasts and up 13% from the year-ago quarter. But the beverage giant reduced the higher end of its profit outlook for the the year. Pepsi decreased about 3%.

Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) was the first Dow component to report results. The aluminum giant raked in $61 million, or 6 cents per share. Excluding certain items, Aloca brought in 9 cents per share, topping forecasts for earnings of 5 cents per share. Sales rose 15% to $5.3 billion, beating expectations for $4.96 billion in revenue.

Adobe (ADBE) shares jumped almost 12% late Thursday after a New York Times blog reported a Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) team, including chief executive Steve Ballmer, held a secret meeting with Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen on a number of topics including the possibility of a merger between the two tech giants.

World markets: European shares finished mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.3%, while the DAX in Germany and France's CAC 40 closed with slight gains.

Asian markets were also flat. Japan's Nikkei index and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong both finished little changed. The Shanghai Composite is closed for a week-long holiday.

Currencies and commodities: As investors anticipate another round of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve, the dollar has continued to fall against the Japanese yen.

But the greenback climbed higher against the euro and the pound after suffering sharp declines Thursday. As the dollar gained ground, commodity prices fell under pressure.

Gold futures for December retreated from record territory. The precious metal's price fell $12.70 to settle at $1,335.00 an ounce. It had touched a new intraday high of $1,366 an ounce earlier.

The price of crude oil for November delivery decreased $1.56 cents to settle at $81.67 per barrel.

Bonds: Despite the bid for safer investments, Treasury prices were flat. The yield for the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury held steady at 2.40%.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Strong same-store sales results and an in-line weekly jobless claims count were offset by the dollar's recovery. In turn, the stock market booked another flat finish ahead of the always-pivotal nonfarm payrolls report.

Stocks started the session in higher ground, but they were quickly cut down as the dollar started to rebound off of an eight-month low. The dollar was down as much as 0.6% and climbed to a 0.4% gain before it settled with a 0.1% gain. Amid the dollar's doldrums the euro set an eight-month high and the yen hit a 15-year high. The dollar's turnaround led many to look past the latest lot of weekly jobless claims.

Initial claims for the week ended October 2 totaled 445,000, which is slightly below the 455,000 claims that had been expected among economists polled by Briefing.com and down 11,000 week-over-week. Continuing claims declined 48,000 week-over-week to 4.46 million, which is a bit more than the 4.45 million claims that had been widely anticipated.

September same-store sales were also shrugged off by the broader market, though a 13% increase in same-store sales by Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 42.03, +3.44) made its shares one of this session's best performers by percent gained. Of the 25 retailers covered by Briefing.com, 19 posted better-than-expected results. As a group, retailers gained 0.4%.

Retailers helped lift the consumer discretionary sector to a 0.3% gain. That tied tech for the best performing sector of the session. Tech's strength came in contrast to the prior session, when its weakness caused the Nasdaq to underperform.

Telecom was at the weak end of things for the second straight session. It tumbled 1.2% today.

Earnings announcements were light ahead of the latest from Dow component Alcoa (AA 12.20, -0.17), which unofficially begins earnings season with its announcement. PepsiCo (PEP 66.10, -2.01) and Immucor (BLUD 16.72, -3.72) both posted in-line earning, but PepsiCo trimmed the top end of its growth outlook and Immucor issued downside guidance. Marriott (MAR 35.67, -2.19) reported a miss, but issued an in-line forecast.

Despite the flurry of announcements, many participants spent the session looking ahead to the official September nonfarm payrolls report, which will be released tomorrow morning ahead of the open. There is an element of uncertainty around the report, especially after the ADP Employment Change for September surprised to the negative side.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+0.3%), Tech (+0.3%), Utilities (+0.1%), Health Care (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-1.2%), Materials (-0.9%), Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Financials (-0.4%), Energy (-0.4%), Industrials (-0.1%)DJ30 -19.07 NASDAQ +3.01 NQ100 +0.3% R2K -0.2% SP400 -0.1% SP500 -1.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1153/1.86 bln/1463 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1357/915 mln/1596

3:30 pm : The energy sector led the way lower for commodities today, after it shed 2.7%. Nov natural gas dropped 4.3% to settle at $3.62 per MMBtu. This morning's larger-than-expected inventory data once again highlighted the bearish fundamentals surrounding natural gas. It finished the session just above its lows at $3.61. Nov crude oil shed 2% to finish at $81.67 per barrel. Strength in the dollar index helped crude pull back from its ~5 month highs.

Profit taking and a rebounding dollar index caused for the precious metals to sell off today. Dec gold shed 0.8% to finish at $1335.00 per ounce, while Dec silver closed down 1.7% to $22.58 per ounce. DJ30 -22.63 NASDAQ +2.80 SP500 -2.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1272/1.5 bln/1332 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1361/674.7 mln/1594

3:00 pm : Consumer credit data for August was just released. Credit contracted by $3.3 billion, which is a bit sharper than the $3.0 billion decrease that had been widely expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Stocks haven't shown any real reaction to the announcement. In turn, their crawl toward higher ground continues to come at a sluggish pace. DJ30 -13.74 NASDAQ +3.15 SP500 -1.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/1.39 bln/1365 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1340/625 mln/1607

2:30 pm : Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 42.49, +3.90) currently sport the greatest gain of any stock in the S&P 500. Their 10% spike comes on the back of news that the company posted September same-store sales growth of 13%, which is far better than the Briefing.com consensus call for an increase closer to 3%. Today's bounce has taken ANF to its highest level since mid-May. It is also the biggest single-session move since a 14.5% rally in early March.

With its advance this session, shares of ANF now trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.1, which is still far greater than the average P/E of 18.4 seen during the past five years. Based on estimates for future earnings, ANF trades at a forward P/E of 24.5 and carries a P/E to growth ratio of 1.4.DJ30 -17.90 NASDAQ +1.58 SP500 -2.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1265/1.30 bln/1306 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1373/578 mln/1564

2:00 pm : The Nasdaq has managed to poke back into positive territory. Meanwhile, the Dow and S&P 500 continue to trail, though they, too, have managed to improve their positions in recent action.

Precious metals plays are weak this session. For example, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD 130.44, -1.37) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV 22.12,-0.57) are down 1.0% and 2.5%, respectively. Their slide comes as participants push back against basic materials stocks after they had outperformed in each of the two previous sessions. DJ30 -27.89 NASDAQ +1.89 SP500 -3.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1228/1.17 bln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1312/535 mln/1612

1:30 pm : Stocks are up a bit from their session lows, but losses persist.

Volatility is only slightly higher this session. Specifically, the Volatility Index is up 2.5%.

Despite the stock market being stuck in the red and volatility up, Treasuries haven't found much favor. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note has spent the session near the neutral line. It is currently up just one tick. Still, its yield remains below 2.40%. DJ30 -50.56 NASDAQ -4.77 SP500 -5.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 988/1.07 bln/1585 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1085/490 mln/1814

1:00 pm : Stocks are in the red with modest losses at the moment. Their slide comes in response to the greenback's gain.

The major averages opened in positive territory, but were quickly sent lower as participants responded negatively to the greenback's rebound. The dollar had been down as much as 0.6% as the euro advanced to a new multi-month high and the yen extended to a new 15-year high. The dollar has since swung to a 0.3% gain against competing currencies.

Typically a widely watched event, weekly jobless claims came with little surprise. Initial claims for the week ended October 2 totaled 445,000, which is only modestly below the 455,000 claims that had been widely expected. At 4.46 million, continuing claims were also close to the consensus.

Market participants have generally been uninspired by the latest round of same-store sales results from retailers. Numbers for September were generally better than expected, but shares in the group are still down 0.5%.

PepsiCo (PEP 65.59, -2.52) and Immucor (BLUD 16.65, -3.80) both posted in-line earnings for the latest quarter, but PepsiCo trimmed the top end of its growth outlook and Immucor issued downside guidance. Marriott (MAR 35.21, -2.65) reported a miss, but issued an in-line forecast. The announcements have done little to build up expectations for Dow component Alcoa (AA 2.24, -0.13), which unofficially kicks off earnings season with its report after the close.

In contrast to the prior session, large-cap tech has helped the Nasdaq limit its loss. Still, it hasn't been able to completely fend off sellers.

Pressure has become broad based, such that all 10 major sectors in the broader market are in the red. Outside of tech, only defensive-oriented health care and utilities have limited losses. The three sectors are down 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1%, respectively. DJ30 -56.35 NASDAQ -8.92 SP500 -7.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 859/990 mln/1718 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 961/455 mln/1944

12:30 pm : The dollar continues to rally. It is now up to a fresh session high, where it sports a 0.3% gain.

Stocks have reacted negatively to the move. In thrun, the S&P 500 is at a fresh session low. Weakness among stocks has become rather widespread in that nine of the 10 sectors are in the red -- only health care has held on to a gain, which currently stands at just 0.1%. Managed care plays like CIGNA (35.28, +0.70), Humana (HUM 50.17, +0.58), WellPoint (WLP 35.28, +0.70), and Aetna (AET 30.74, +0.36). DJ30 -44.28 NASDAQ -3.88 SP500 -5.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1004/886 mln/1517 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1115/408 mln/1777

12:00 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 were both recently backed down to their session lows, but the Nasdaq has remained near the neutral line as it shows some resiliance in the wake of its outsized slide in the prior session.

The dollar continues to mend itself. It had been down as much as 0.6%, which put it at a new eight-month low, but it is now flat against competing currencies. Most of the dollar's rebound has come at the expense of the euro, which is now down 0.1% against the greenback. In contrast, the yen is still up 0.7% against the dollar. That keeps it near the 15-year high that it set earlier today. DJ30 -23.39 NASDAQ +2.17 SP500 -2.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1188/795 mln/1329 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1328/369 mln/1522

11:30 am : Retailers are collectively up just 0.1% despite a rush of strong same-store sales results for September.

Among the companies covered by Briefing.com, Nordstrom (JWN 38.04, +0.50) posted a September same-store sales increase of 7.5%, Macy's (M 23.68, -0.02) reported a monthly same-store sales increase of 4.8%, JC Penney (JCP 28.24, -0.76) posted a 5.1% increase in monthly same-store sales, and Limited (LTD 28.71, +1.12) saw same-store sales increase 12.0% in September. All were better than expected.

Same-store sales from teen retailers Abercrombie (ANF 42.44, +3.85), The Buckle (BKE 29.17, +2.47), American Eagle (AEO 16.20, +1.19), and Aeropostale (ARO 23.60, -0.73) all beat expectations, too.DJ30 -14.46 NASDAQ +4.27 SP500 -1.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1189/690 mln/1297 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1378/322 mln/1456

11:00 am : Stocks have bounced back a bit since slipping in the early going. The move has taken the Nasdaq up to a modest gain -- the Nasdaq had lagged considerably in the prior session as tech stocks fell out of favor.

In contrast, the Nasdaq is currently led by Microsoft (MSFT 24.67, +0.24), Oracle (ORCL 27.75, +0.17), and Intel (INTC 19.38, +0.07). Despite renewed strength among large-cap tech, the tech sector in the S&P 500 is only up 0.2% at the moment. DJ30 -12.87 NASDAQ +5.82 SP500 -0.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1250/567 mln/1210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1450/266 mln/1353

10:30 am : November natural gas fell back into the red around 7:30am ET and has remain there since. The energy component hit session lows of $3.78 per MMBtu a little before the top of the hour and was sitting just above that level ahead of inventory data. The data showed a build of 85 bcf versus a build of 80 bcf, pushing it to new session lows of $3.71 per MMBtu; now down 3.8% at $3.72 per MMBtu

November crude oil was trading in positive territory this morning before spiking ~$1 to new session highs of $84.43 per barrel. However, crude quickly turned around and fell into the red and new session lows of $82.58 per barrel. It is currently trading at $83.00 per barrel, down 0.2%.

Precious metals fell into negative territory in recent activity and currently remain modestly lower. December gold is 0.3% lower at $1343.00 per ounce, while December silver is down 0.2% at $22.99 per ounce. DJ30 -1.51 NASDAQ +7.61 SP500 +0.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1243/414.7 mln/1173 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1473/206.9/1280

10:00 am : Selling pressure has eased a bit, but the major averages are still in the red. The change in tone comes as the dollar swings higher so that it now trades with a loss of just 0.1% after it had been down as much 0.6%.

The dollar's move has also undercut commodities. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is now down to a 0.1% loss after it had been up as much as 1.0% just ahead of the opening bell.

Treasuries have made modest improvements in recent trade. Still, their move has been enough to take yields to morning lows.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+0.3%), Financials (+0.2%), Health Care (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-1.0%), Materials (-1.0%), Energy (-0.7%), Industrials (-0.5%), Tech (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.2%)DJ30 -12.30 NASDAQ -4.57 SP500 -2.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 986/228 mln/1208 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1254/135 mln/1403

09:45 am : Opening gains have been dashed so that the major equity averages are now in the red with modest losses.

Materials stocks are under the most pressure after they put together some of the best gains during the two previous sessions. The sector has already shed 0.9%.

Financials are up solidly, though. The sector's 0.5% gain stems from strength in diversified financial services plays like Citigroup (+4.16, +0.06). DJ30 -12.03 NASDAQ -4.34 SP500 -2.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/160 mln/1107 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1342/98 mln/1304

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.30. The tone of premarket trade has improved so that a solid start to the session now looks to be in order. The bounce by broader market futures has slowed a bit in the past few minutes, though. The pause coincides with the dollar's move up from its session low, which actually marked its worst level in little over eight months. Weekly jobless claims came without much of a surprise as both initial claims and continuing claims were generally on par with expectations. Earnings announcements have been light ahead of Alcoa's (AA) announcement after the close, but a raft of stronger-than-expected same-store sales results from retailers has been a point of interest for participants. Outside of stocks, commodities are strong again as the CRB Index advances 0.6%.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00. Futures for the S&P 500 have made a strong swing higher. That has helped spur buying in Europe, such that Germany's DAX is now up 0.7% after it had been flat just a half hour ago. Volkswagen is atop the list of leaders, but BASF is a more notable name among those causing a drag. France's CAC has managed to advance 0.8% after declining issues had recently outnumbered advancers by 2-to-1. Financial plays like Societe Generale and BNP Paribas have provided leadership while industrials have collectively fallen amid weakness in names like Schneider Electric. Banking plays HSBC (HBC) and Lloyds Group (LYG) have hampered Britain's FTSE, but the British Index has still bounced to a 0.4% gain, thanks largely to strength in GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), AstraZeneca (AZN), and BHP Billiton (BHP). The Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, as expected. It also left its asset purchase program at 200 billion pounds. The European Central Bank also announced that its target interest rate of 1.00% will remain unchanged, as had been widely anticipated. Both the British pound and the euro are up markedly versus the U.S. dollar. They were both last quoted with 0.6% gains against the greenback. That move has helped the pound move fractionally above its summer range to a new eight-month high. The euro is also up to a new eight month high.

In Asia, the Japanese yen is up 0.9% to its best level against the greenback in 15 years. Trade in Japan was lackluster, though. The Nikkei closed with a 0.1% loss as weakness in Fanuc LTD, Softbank, and Canon (CAJ) offset gains by Fast Retailing and Seven & I Hldgs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished flat as HSBC, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank were pressured. Hutchison Whampo rebounded back toward its 2010 high in the face of the broader market's lackluster action.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. Stock futures have seen little movement since the release of the latest weekly jobless claims counts. Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 2 totaled 445,000, down 11,000 week-over-week and slightly below the 455,000 claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Continuing claims declined 48,000 week-over-week to 4.46 million, which is a bit above the 4.45 million claims that had been widely anticipated.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. Broader market futures are near unchanged following a flat finish to the prior session. However, the dollar's doldrums continue as it falls 0.4% to a fresh eight-month low against competing currencies, namely the yen, which is up 0.7% to trade at a new 15-year high, and the euro, which is up 0.4% to a new eight-month high. The euro has not shown much of a reaction to news that the European Central Bank left its target interest rate unchanged at 1.0%, as had been widely expected. A few companies are out with quarterly results ahead of earnings season, which gets its unofficial start when Dow component Alcoa (AA) reports after the close. Among the more widely held names already out, PepsiCo (PEP) posted in-line earnings, but lowered the upper end of its earnings growth guidance. Its shares are down 3% in premarket trade. Immucor (BLUD) posted in-line earnings on light revenue, but cut its earnings forecast to below the current consensus. Its shares are down some 17% ahead of the open. Same-store sales results from September are slowly coming across newswires. They have been generally solid, so far. As for data, weekly jobless claims are due at the bottom of the hour. Consumer credit figures for August are due at 3:00 PM ET.

06:39 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00.

06:38 am : Nikkei...9684.81...-6.60...-0.10%. Hang Seng...22884.32...+3.90...0.00.

06:38 am : FTSE...5690.47...+9.10...+0.20%. DAX...6277.84...+7.20...+0.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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