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 Post subject: September 29th Wednesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +14.10
PostPosted: Wed Sep 29, 2010 11:45 pm 
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Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Stocks Stumble At The Close
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By Blake Ellis, staff reporter
September 29, 2010: 4:54 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks ended slightly lower Wednesday, as uneasiness about the global economy continued to hang over the market and a light economic calendar gave investors little reason to jump in.

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) slipped 23 points, or 0.2%, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 3 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) lost 3 points, or 0.1%.

After rallying to 4-month highs and gaining for a fourth straight week last week, stocks have been stuck in a rut, swinging between small gains and losses.

"The economy still hasn't improved measurably," said Brian Battle, director of Performance Trust Capital Partners. "If there is a recovery taking place, it's very uneven."

Stocks finished modestly higher Tuesday, but trading was choppy as a disappointing reading on consumer morale fueled worries about the recovery.

While the economy may not be headed for a double-dip recession, economic and political uncertainty ahead of midterm elections and new tax policies is making it hard for stocks to keep up their momentum, said Tom Schrader, managing director at Stifel Nicolaus.

"Markets hate uncertainty, and the government has created a tremendous amount of uncertainty, so that's gotten the market frozen," he said. "It's not that we're going to get a double-dip recession, it's much more likely that we flatline for some time as small businesses and individuals are very cautious about what the government has done and what it's going to do."

* Stocks: So far from their highs

World markets: With little in the way of economic news on tap Wednesday, concerns about the health of the euro zone pressured global markets.

European stocks slumped. Britain's FTSE 100 finished 0.2% lower, Germany's DAX declined 0.5% and France's CAC 40 dropped 0.7%.

Amid austerity measure protests in Spain, Ireland and Brussels, news reports Wednesday said Allied Irish Banks PLC may need an additional capital boost to protect it from future losses. Moody's downgraded Anglo Irish earlier this week.

"The weakness of European markets is all about concerns in Europe in terms of what the Irish are going to do with [Allied Irish Banks], we have strikes in Spain, and just the whole upheaval in the European continent," said Schrader.

Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives was considering a bill that could punish China for manipulating the yuan's value, despite China's pledge Wednesday to increase the flexibility of its exchange rate.

"The U.S. Congress wanting to tick off our largest trading partner certainly doesn't bode well for the market," Schrader said.

Asian markets ended mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei added 0.7% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rallied 1.2%. The Shanghai Composite finished near breakeven.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar also suffered Wednesday, as worries about the recovery boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve will step in sooner rather than later to provide additional support to the U.S. economy.

The greenback fell against the euro and the Japanese yen, but rose versus the British pound. The U.S. Dollar Index -- which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies -- fell 0.4% after sinking to its lowest level in eight months earlier in the day.

Gold for December delivery continued to break records Wednesday, gaining $2 to settle at an all-time high of $1,310.30 an ounce after hitting an intra-day trading record earlier in the session.

* Video - Gold: So precious these days

Crude oil futures for November delivery gained $1.68 to settle at $77.86 a barrel.

Bonds: The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose to 2.5% from 2.46% late Tuesday.

Companies: AIG is reportedly preparing to sell two of its Japanese life insurance divisions to Prudential Financial Inc. for $4.8 billion in cash, according to Bloomberg News. Shares of AIG edged slightly higher on Wednesday.

The U.S. government and AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) are also reportedly working out a deal that would allow the Treasury Department to gradually exit its majority stake in the insurer.

Shares of AOL (AOL) climbed 4.6% Wednesday after the media giant added another blog to its portfolio on Tuesday, buying technology blog TechCrunch.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The major averages slipped modestly on Wednesday as the broader market followed the financial sector.

Financial stocks completely reversed a 1% loss in the going only to give up the move and finish with a 0.8% loss, which was largely the result of weakness in bank stocks.

Bank stocks had also undermined action in Europe, where Germany's DAX dropped 0.5%, France's CAC fell 0.7%, and Britain's FTSE finished 0.2% lower.

With the financial sector unable to fight off sellers, the broader market faltered with the arrival of the final hour.

Resistance along the top end of recent trading ranges didn't help the case for stocks. Even at their best levels of the day the major averages were hung up near the neutral line.

Energy stocks booked relatively big gains, however. The sector's 0.7% advance was broad in that 35 of the 39 sector members advanced. Only Exxon Mobil (XOM 61.59, -0.47), Murphy Oil (MUR 61.26, -0.28), and Spectra Energy (SE 22.50, -0.01) logged losses. BP Plc (BP 40.00, +0.71) was among the better performers in the sector, despite contradicting reports regarding settlement talks related to the company's recent oil spill.

Only a fractional gain was made by the tech sector, despite strong guidance from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 42.53, +0.91) and strength among semiconductor stocks (+0.7%). Xerox (XRX 10.29, -0.26) and Electronic Arts (ERTS 16.23, -0.32) ended up dragging down the sector.

There were no major economic releases today, but tomorrow brings the third reading on second quarter GDP. No changes to the economy's 1.6% annualized second quarter growth rate are expected.

Ahead of the data, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser stated that he does not favor additional asset purchases at this time. Those comments sent bonds lower in afternoon action. The benchmark 10-year Note ended with a loss of about eight ticks. Treasuries had trimmed some of their midday losses amid results from an auction of 7-year Notes. The auction drew a yield of 1.89%, a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.04, and had indirect bidder participation of 50.2%. The bid-to-cover was the best in more than a year.

The dollar dropped to a new eight month-low this session and finished with a 0.3% against a basket of competing currencies. Most of its weakness was owed to a bounce by the euro and a gain by the yen.

A lack of direction over the past few sessions has stocks flat for the week. Should that theme hold into tomorrow it will mark a rather anticlimactic close to the third quarter. Despite such a finish, the S&P 500 is on track for a third quarter gain of almost 10%. Most of that is the result of a 9% by the S&P 500 so far this month. The strong month-to-date move has the stock market on pace for its best monthly gain since April 2009.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.7%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-0.9%), Financials (-0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%), Telecom (-0.5%), Utilities (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.3%)
Unchanged: Industrials, TechDJ30 -22.86 NASDAQ -3.03 NQ100 -0.2% R2K +0.3% SP400 +0.00% SP500 -2.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1378/2.09 bln/1215 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1650/1.01 bln/1317

3:30 pm : Energy was the largest advancing sector in commodities today, after it posted a 2.1% gain. Nov heating oil futures finished higher by 3.4% to $2.19 per gallon. Nov crude oil gained 2.2% to finish at $77.86 per barrel. This morning's inventory data showed a large, unexpected build in gasoline, and that sent crude oil futures into positive territory. From there, they extended their rally all session and closed just shy of highs at $78.13 per barrel. Nov natural gas gained 0.4% to end at $3.97 per MMBtu, in what was an uneventful session.

Despite sizeable weakness in the dollar index, Dec gold only managed to close higher by 0.2% to $1310.30 per ounce. The continuous gold contract did trade to a new all-time high, which is becoming an every day occurrence, at $1312.50. Dec silver, on the other hand, ended up 0.8% to $21.95 per ounce. The continuous silver contract set a new ~30 yr high above the $22 level at $22.075. DJ30 -32.89 NASDAQ -6.74 SP500 -4.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1276/1.6 bln/1302 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1566/667.1 mln/1390

3:00 pm : Industrial stocks have poked into positive territory so that the sector now trades with a 0.1% gain. Office services and suppliers (+1.2%) and environmental and facilities services (+1.0%) have underpinned the sector's strength.

Of the major sectors, only tech (+0.3%) and energy (+1.1%) represent the other two sectors in higher ground.

Though the end of the third quarter is near, window dressing among portfolio managers hasn't had much of an impact on share volume. In turn, trading volume on the NYSE remains below 600 million shares. DJ30 +2.00 NASDAQ +1.39 SP500 +0.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1397/1.49 bln/1165 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1763/590 mln/1198

2:30 pm : Treasuries recently slipped to fresh session lows. The slide has caused the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note to rise to 2.50% and the yield on the 30-year bond to climb to 3.69%.

Pressure against the greenback has resumed. It is now down to a 0.4% loss against competing currencies. Earlier losses took the dollar all the way down to a new eight-month low. The dollar's latest drop is mostly due to a 0.4% bounce by the euro and a 0.3% advance by the yen. DJ30 +6.13 NASDAQ -0.12 SP500 +0.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1365/1.36 bln/1181 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1746/546 mln/1186

2:00 pm : Stocks have bounced back to the neutral line, despite a lack of apparent trading catalysts. Energy continues to provide a primary source of support; the sector is up 1.0% to a fresh session high.

Energy's climb follows a run up by oil prices, which are now up 2.3% to $78 per barrel. The energy component had been down with a marked loss in the early going. DJ30 +7.03 NASDAQ +0.91 SP500 +0.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1339/1.26 bln/1207 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1709/505 mln/1205

1:30 pm : Treasuries have trimmed some of their recent losses in the wake of results from an auction of 7-year Notes. The auction drew a yield of 1.89%, a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.04, and had indirect bidder participation of 50.2%. The bid-to-cover was the best in more than a year.

As for stocks, they have slipped a bit, and even though overall losses are modest the major indices are at afternoon lows. DJ30 -18.21 NASDAQ -4.39 SP500 -2.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1294/1.15 bln/1218 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1607/465 mln/1287

1:00 pm : For the third straight session stocks have overcome early weakness, but resistance at the top end of recent trading ranges has made it difficult for the major equity averages to actually advance.

Continued caution subjected stocks to further selling in the early going. The S&P 500 was down about 0.6% at its low.

Not even upside guidance from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 42.53, +0.91) could inspire broader market buyers, though the stock has helped the tech sector outperform this session. Tech stocks are currently up 0.2%. Supplemental support has been given by semiconductor stocks, which are collectively up 1.2%.

Energy stocks have been strong, too. The sector's 0.8% gain makes it the strongest sector of the session. A rally by oil prices from an early loss to a 1.8% gain at $77.50 per barrel has helped. Oil's move comes in the face of a smaller-than-expected draw in weekly inventory data.

The widely watched financial sector was an early source of weakness. The sector was down as much as 1.0% amid weakness in bank stocks, but it actually reversed all of its losses in late morning trade. Such a swing helped inspire broader buying, such that the major averages briefly poked into positive territory.

The stock market has struggled to extend this session's rebound. Resistance against the S&P 500 remains near the 1150 line, which is the four-month high that was set in the prior session.

Despite the difficulty of pushing past recent ranges, September is shaping up to be one of the best months for the stock market in more than a year. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 9.4%.

With September coming to an end, end-of-quarter window dressing by portfolio managers could bring about some interesting action. It could also lift trading volume.

Due at any moment are results from an auction of 7-year Notes. Treasuries are down with mild losses ahead of the announcement. DJ30 -6370 NASDAQ -0.53 SP500 -0.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1337/1.06 bln/1160 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1690/430 mln/1226

12:30 pm : Each of the three major equity averages recently pushed into positive territory, but none has managed to stay there.

Energy stocks now boast a big lead over the broader market, though. The sector is up 0.7% at the moment. It has helped that oil prices have rallied to a 1.8% gain at $77.50 per barrel after starting pit trade with a loss. DJ30 -7.80 NASDAQ -0.77 SP500 -1.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1338/977 mln/1139 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1651/396 mln/1226

12:00 pm : Stocks have made a strong, upward swing over the past half hour. The move has yet to take the major averages into positive territory, though.

Financials have been a source of leadership in recent action. Outsized losses in the sector had been hampered broader action, but the sector has since rallied. Financials even poked into positive territory for a moment, but they have since slipped back to a 0.1% loss.

Treasuries have turned lower in response to the stock market's improved position. The benchmark 10-year Note is now down about seven ticks. DJ30 -11.96 NASDAQ -2.73 SP500 -1.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1292/865 mln/1162 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1571/350 mln/1274

11:30 am : Energy stocks make up the only major sector to sport a gain. The sector's 0.2% advance is being led by oil and gas drillers (+2.2%), oil and gas equipment plays (+1.2%), and oil and gas explorers (+1.0%). Intetraged giant and Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM 61.69, -0.37) has been a laggard, however.

Despite general strength in the sector this session, energy stocks are the worst performing sector of 2010. They are down 3.0% year-to-date. For comparison, the S&P 500 is up 2.6% year-to-date and consumer discretionary stocks, which so far make up the best performing sector of 2010, are up 12.5% year-to-date. DJ30 -26.42 NASDAQ -5.11 SP500 -3.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1091/732 mln/1326 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1343/294 mln/1485

11:00 am : Stocks recently retreated to fresh session lows. Though relatively tame, overall weakness is widespread with declining issues outnumbering advancers by about 4-to-1 on the S&P 500.

Financials are in some of the worst shape. The sector's 0.8% slide comes amid relatively sharp losses among diversified bank stocks (-1.2%), regional banks (-1.0%), and investment banks and brokerages (-1.1%).

As for insurers, Prudential (PRU 57.03, +1.23) is up more than 2% following headlines that have suggested the company will purchase Japanese units from AIG (AIG 38.36, +1.04) for $4.8 billion. Elsewhere in that space, Liberty Mutual Group has postponed its initial public offering of stock in Liberty Mutual Agency Corp. DJ30 -41.89 NASDAQ -8.45 SP500 -5.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 978/625 mln/1394 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1187/245 mln/1606

10:30 am : Oil inventory data for the week ended September 17 showed a draw of 475,000 barrels, which is smaller than the draw of 700,000 barrels that had been widely expected. Oil prices were at morning lows near $75.60 per barrel ahead of the data, but they have since recovered to the neutral line at $76.20 per barrel.

Natural gas prices remain under pressure. The energy component was last quoted with a 0.6% loss at $3.93 per MMBtu.

Gold prices have moved up to $1307.70 per ounce, which makes for a fractional gain. The continuous contract set a new record high of $1312.50 per ounce overnight in electronic trade.

Silver prices have bounced back from their slide in the prior session. The precious metal was last quoted at $21.79 per ounce, up 0.4%. DJ30 -28.16 NASDAQ -6.37 SP500 -4.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 984/476 mln/1323 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1201/190 mln/1555

10:00 am : The Nasdaq recently poked into positive territory with help from tech stocks, but broader weakness undermined that move and has since caused the major averages to retreat a bit. Overall losses remain modest, though.

Despite the stock market's early failing, Treasuries have yet to show any real direction. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is flat. That has its yield at 2.46%, which puts it just above the monthly low that it set in the prior session. Due this afternoon are results from an auction of 7-year Notes. DJ30 -28.76 NASDAQ -4.68 SP500 -4.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 869/260 mln/1322 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1021/115 mln/1639

09:40 am : The major equity averages are down slightly in the first few minutes of trade. Underlying weakness is relatively widespread as nine of the 10 major sectors contend with losses.

Only tech is in higher ground. The sector's 0.2% gain is largely underpinned by renewed strength in semiconductor stocks, which are up 0.7%, collectively. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 42.53, +0.91) has been an individual leader following news of its strong forecast. DJ30 -14.61 NASDAQ -1.58 SP500 -2.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 807/98 mln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1043/62 mln/1492

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.50. Premarket trade remains lackluster. Participants remain selective in the headlines they accept as cues and catalysts with stocks facing resistance at the top end of recent trading ranges. As such, upside guidance from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) really hasn't done anything for the broader market's mood. Overseas action has also failed to inspire. There isn't any data scheduled for release today either. However, end-of-quarter window dressing could play a part in action of the next couple of sessions. That could also lift trading volume, which just yesterday broke above 1 billion on the NYSE for only the fifth time this month.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.80. European markets opened slightly higher early this morning, but they are now stuck near the neutral line. Germany's DAX is now down 0.2%. Deutsche Bank (DB) and Commerzbank have weighed on action while BMW and Infineon Tech have provided support. France's CAC is off by 0.1%. Financial issues Societe Generale and BNP Paribas are primary sources of weakness, but Axa (AXA) has helped offset their losses. As for data, France's Consumer Confidence Index for September came in at -35, which is a slight improvement from the upwardly revised -38 of August. Britain's FTSE is down 0.2%. Global banking giant HSBC (HBC) has hampered trade, but BP Plc (BP) has been a source of support following reports that the company may be in settlement talks related to its recent oil spill. However, other reports have contradicted that. Recent data indicates that a contraction in consumer credit during August made for the weakest reading since November 2009. Data for the broader eurozone showed that the Consumer Confidence Index for August came in at -11, unchanged month over month. The Eurozone Economic Confidence Index for August improved to 103.2 from 102.3 in July.

In Asia, the Tankan Survey, which measures corporate sentiment, came out better-than-expected, but the forecast for the next three months was negative. Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.7% amid strength in Canon (CAJ) and Fast Retailing. Central Japan Railway was among the more notable laggards. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite finished flat even though declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 2-to-1. Shtrength in large-cap plays like PetroChina (PTR), Bank of China, and China Shenua helped offset weakness in SAIC Motor and China Southern. As for data, the HSBC PMI for China improved to 52.9 for September from 51.9 in August. That precedes the government's figure tomorrow night. Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1.2% higher. China Construction Bank and Industrial & Commercial Bank were leaders. Losses were limited, though Tencent Holdings succumbed to some rather stiff selling.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50. A tepid tone continues to surround broader market futures. However, shares of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) are up more than 1% following upside guidance from the company. Shares of BP Plc (BP) are up nearly 1% after a strong finish in the prior session. There are contradicting reports regarding settlement talks related to its recent oil spill. Shares of Boeing (BA) are up more than 1% following word from the Department of Defense that the company has been awarded a $5.3 billion modification contract. Family Dollar (FDO) is up almost 4% ahead of the bell after the discount retailer reported better-than-expected earnings and issued in-line guidance. At the other end of the spectrum, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) shares are down about 14% in premarket trade. The pressure follows reports of an SEC investigation related to revenue recognition practices and the company's relationship with one of its fulfillment vendors. Additionally, the company disclosed an immaterial accounting error.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.80. Stocks put together a strong finish in the prior session, but there hasn't been much follow through. Instead, the present tone of premarket trade is flat. Meanwhile, the downturn in the dollar continues, such that the Dollar Index set a new seven-month low overnight and is presently off by 0.3%. Treasuries are under a slight fit of pressure. As for action abroad, Europe's major bourses are stuck near the neutral line after Asia's averages saw mixed interest that left the Shanghai Composite flat and the Hang Seng up 1.2%. Weekly oil inventory numbers are due at 10:30 AM ET and results from an auction of 7-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET, but no major pieces of economic data are due today. Several Fed speakers are on the slate, starting with a speech from Minnesota Fed President Kocherlakota at 10:15 AM ET, then Philadelphia Fed President Plosser at 12:30 PM ET and Boston Fed President Rosengren at 1:15 PM ET.

06:43 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80.

06:43 am : Nikkei...9559.38...+63.60...+0.70%. Hang Seng...22378.67...+268.70...+1.20%.

06:43 am : FTSE...5564.51...-13.90...-0.30%. DAX...6258.60...-17.40...-0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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