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 Post subject: September 28th Tuesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +21.40
PostPosted: Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:13 pm 
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Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Stocks Claw Out Gains
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By Blake Ellis, staff reporter
September 28, 2010: 4:51 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks finished higher Tuesday as a drop in consumer confidence and a mixed reading on home prices failed to sink recovery hopes.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) climbed 46 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 (SPX) added 5.5 points, or 0.5%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) gained 10 points, or 0.4%.

After rallying for a fourth straight week last week, stocks slipped from 4-month highs and ended the day lower Monday amid a flurry of deal-making activity and ongoing economic jitters.

Despite a disappointing report on consumer morale early Tuesday that initially sent stocks tumbling, investors haven't given up hope that a recovery is gradually gaining pace, said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

"The sentiment is that economic data has not necessarily improved significantly from summer months, rather it has stopped showing signs of deterioration," said Luschini. "But that's enough for some people to suggest that the risk of a double-dip recession is receding."

Economy: The Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 48.5 in September from a downwardly revised 53.2 in August, the Conference Board reported. Economists had been expecting the number to edge to 53. The index is a far cry from 90 -- a level that typically indicates a stable economy.

"This is further evidence that the consumer is still not feeling particularly upbeat about what they see going on in the market or in the foreseeable future, which obviously impacts their spending behavior," said Luschini. "That's enough to hold markets back."
Consumers less confident. So?

But the disappointing reading on consumer morale was countered by a slightly encouraging report on home prices.

The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed home prices inched up 0.6% in July compared with June, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 3.2% compared with July 2009. Experts polled by Briefing.com had forecast a year-over-year rise of 3.3%.

"It wasn't robust, but the [reading] represents more normalized traffic coming into the market, which is helping to put a floor into housing prices," said Luschini. "It's too soon to suggest a recovery in the housing market, but this at least suggests we're bringing some stability to this beleaguered but critical area of the economy."

Stuck in a rut?: While a double-dip recession may be becoming less of a concern, it's going to take more than a slew of lackluster economic readings to push the market significantly higher, said Ron Kiddoo, CIO at Cozad Asset Management.

"We've had a good move up this month and economic readings have been slowly getting better," he said. "But we still need to see much better economic numbers, and that just isn't happening."

With midterm elections around the corner and as investors await the government's closely-watched jobs report on tap next week, political and economic uncertainty is likely to keep stocks in a tight trading range.

"I don't expect [economic] numbers to get a lot better for a while, which could mean the remainder of the calendar year," said Kiddoo. "Attempts of government spending and bringing in jobs aren't working and businesses are spending a lot of cash and doing well but are afraid to invest because they don't know what the future is going to bring in terms of taxes and legislation."

Companies: AOL (AOL) shares gained nearly 3% after the media giant announced plans to acquire news outlet TechCrunch.

Shares of Barnes & Noble (BKS, Fortune 500) closed slightly higher after the bookseller said shareholders rejected investor Ronald Burkle's bid to expand his ownership of the company.

Meanwhile, BlackBerry maker Research in Motion (RIMM) on Monday unveiled the PlayBook, a new tablet computer to compete with Apple's (AAPL, Fortune 500) iPad.
0:00 /3:17Meet the BlackBerry PlayBook

Shares of RIM slipped 3% Tuesday, and the stock is down about 30% this year due to concerns that the company is falling behind Apple, as well as smartphone makers using Google's (GOOG, Fortune 500) Android operating system.

Shares of Walgreens (WAG, Fortune 500) surged more than 11% after the drugstore chain reported its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue rose 7.4% to a record $16.9 billion, driven by strong prescription drug sales. The company's quarterly earnings rose 7.8% to $470 million, or 49 cents per share.

World markets: European stocks ended mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%, France's CAC 40 lost 0.1%, and Germany's DAX was flat.

Early Tuesday, European markets tumbled after a Spanish newspaper pointed out that Moody's deadline for reviewing its investment grade AAA credit rating for Spain runs out this week. The country could be facing a downgrade due to its sovereign debt troubles.

Asian markets ended the session in negative territory. Japan's Nikkei and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong each lost more than 1%. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.6%.
0:00 /1:10Japan's $55 billion boost

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the Japanese yen, but rose versus and British pound.

Gold futures for December delivery surged $9.70 to settle at a new record of $1,308.30 an ounce, after hitting an all-time intraday trading high of $1,311 earlier Tuesday.

The price of crude oil for November delivery fell 34 cents to settle at $76.18 per barrel.

Bonds: Prices for U.S. Treasurys rose, with the yield on the 10-year note falling to 2.47% from 2.53% late Monday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Despite an early slide, stocks were able to settle with solid, broad gains Tuesday.

The major averages opened with narrow gains after a member of the Bank of England made the case for further monetary stimulus. The comments, along with speculation that European central banks will purchase troubled debt, helped relieve worries about sovereign debt.

However, sellers were quick to step into the action. Their efforts intensified with the September Consumer Confidence Index, which made a surprise drop to a seven-month low of 48.5.

The stock market attracted support as it came within close contact of its summer trading range top. Technical support provided a floor from which stocks could rebound, but a lack of actual leadership left stocks to spend most of the afternoon hugging the neutral line until a late spurt of buying helped stocks finish near their session highs.

Thanks to better-than-expected earnings, Walgreen (WAG 33.81, +3.46) was the best performer of the day. Its spike made for its best single-session performance in more than a year.

In contrast, Monsanto (MON 48.75, -4.32) was the worst performer of the day. Its dive came amid cautious comments about the company's seeds products and some negative numbers from an Australian agricultural chemical company. The stock weighed on the broader materials sector, which had lagged for most of the session and only mustered a fractional gain in the moments ahead of the close.

Though the broader market's overall gain was a bit restricted, advancing issues outnumbered decliners by 4-to-1. More upbeat were small-cap stocks, which helped the Russell 2000 advance 1.1%.

Treasuries had a strong session as the 30-year Bond climbed a full point, the 10-year Note tacked on 16 ticks, and the 5-year Note gained about eight ticks. Results from the latest 5-year Note auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.96, dollar demand of $103.6 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 50.1%. Though the latest auction saw slightly better demand than the sale did in August, dollar demand still was not that strong since it was the third lowest of the last twelve auctions.

The dollar dropped to a new seven-month low as the euro rallied 1.0% against the greenback. From its session low to its session high the euro swung 1.6% to end the day near $1.36.

Advancing Sectors: Health Care (+0.9%), Consumer Staples (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%), Energy (+0.8%), Industrials (+0.5%), Financials (+0.3%), Utilities (+0.2%), Tech (+0.1%), Telecom (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: (None)
Unchanged: MaterialsDJ30 +46.10 NASDAQ +9.82 NQ100 +0.1% R2K +1.1% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +5.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1760/2.14 bln/853 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2114/1.03 bln/870

3:30 pm : The grains sector was the largest decliner in commodities today. It shed 2.4%. That selloff was led by a 3.1% drop in December wheat futures, which settled at $6.85 per bushel. December corn shed 2.5% to end at $5.00 per bushel.

Weakness in the dollar helped precious metals finish in positive territory. December gold gained 0.8% to settle at $1308.60 per ounce. It was another record day for the continuous gold contract, which set a fresh all time high at $1309.80 per ounce. December silver rallied from a marked loss to a 1.3% gain to end at $21.73 per ounce. The continuous silver contract traded to a fresh 30-year high at $21.65 per ounce.

As for energy, November crude oil settled higher by 0.4% to $76.18 per barrel, while November natural gas gained 1.2% to $3.95 per MMBtu.DJ30 +36.41 NASDAQ +3.18 SP500 +3.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1480/1.75 bln/1120 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1848/730 mln/1110

3:00 pm : The stock market is back at the flat line as trade turns listless. A lack of leadership and the absence of any clear direction in the near term has also kept participants on the sidelines. Though trading volume isn't quite as paltry as it was in the prior session, share volume on the NYSE remains unimpressive. DJ30 +17.15 NASDAQ -1.75 SP500 +0.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1267/1.60 bln/1311 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1545/653 mln/1383

2:30 pm : Stocks have been unable to build on their recent advance. That has left the major averages holding on to modest gains.

Amid the stock market's pause, financials have slipped back into the red. The sector is now down 0.1% as diversified bank stocks (-1.0%) come under pressure.

Retailers have also pulled back. They were recently up more than 1%, but they now trade with a 0.7% gain.

Semiconductor stocks continue to outperform, though. As such, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.1%. DJ30 +57.86 NASDAQ +10.54 SP500 +5.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/1.35 bln/1044 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1924/539 mln/1004

2:05 pm : Stocks have stretched to a fresh session high. The move has been broad based.

Retailers are looking particularly strong. The group is now up 1.1%, which has helped the consumer discretionary sector put together a 0.8% gain. Only the health care sector (+0.8%) is up as much.

Materials stocks remain mired in the red, though. The sector's 0.1% loss stems largely from weakness among the likes of Monsanto (MON 48.15, -4.92) amid cautious comments about the company's seeds products and some negative numbers from an Australian agricultural chemical company. DJ30 +57.86 NASDAQ +10.54 SP500 +5.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/1.35 bln/1044 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1924/540 mln/1004

1:30 pm : Results from the latest 5-year auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.96, dollar demand of $103.6 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 50.1%. For comparison, the prior auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.83, dollar demand of $101.9 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 50.8%. An average of the past six auctions has a bid-to-cover of 2.75, dollar demand of $107.4 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 43.7%.

Though the latest auction saw slightly better demand than the sale did in August, dollar demand still wasn't that strong since it was the third lowest of the last twelve auctions. Still, the 5-year Note has held on to a solid gain of about nine ticks, which has its yield at 1.23%. Farther out on the yield curve, the 10-year Note is up 20 ticks so that its yield is down to 2.45% and the 30-year Bond is up more than a point so that its yield is down below 3.65%. DJ30 +21.16 NASDAQ +1.50 SP500 +1.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1372/1.24 bln/1153 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1674/490 mln/1252

1:00 pm : For the second straight session stocks slipped to a loss at the open, but were able to recover. Trade is now mixed.

A mild fit of selling sent the major indices into negative territory shortly after the open. Losses were extended with the release of the September Consumer Confidence Index, which made a surprise drop to a seven-month low of 48.5.

Despite the absence of any apparent catalyst, stocks were able to stage a rebound that has left the major equity averages just above the neutral line.

Consumer staples stocks have been among this session's best performers. The sector's 0.5% gain comes amid leadership from Walgreen (WAG 33.93, +3.58), which is on pace for its best single-session performance in more than a year following better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter.

Jabil Circuit (JBL 13.29, -0.60) also announced better-than-expected earnings, but it issued a tepid outlook for its top line.

Apple (AAPL 288.08, -3.08) has been subjected to seesaw-like trade amid rumors about the departure of its Chief Operating Officer, though statements were made on CNBC that no such departure is in the works.

Steady gains among Treasuries have the benchmark 10-year Note up 15 ticks and the 5-year Note up seven ticks ahead of results from an auction of 5-year Notes (1:00 PM ET).

Meanwhile, the dollar has dropped to a 0.6% loss. That puts it at a fresh seven-month low. The greenback's weakness comes after the euro rallied in response to speculation that European central banks will purchase troubled debt and news that a member of the Bank of England made the case for further monetary stimulus, all of which followed renewed worries about sovereign debt. DJ30 +25.02 NASDAQ +0.90 SP500 +1.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1375/1.15 bln/1133 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1694/452 mln/1223

12:30 pm : Electronic manufacturing services and solutions provider Jabil Circuit (JBL 13.29, -0.60) is under stiff pressure despite better-than-expected earnings. Disappointment is largely due to downside revenue guidance.

In contrast, NetApp (NTAP 50.98, +1.59) is a leader among tech issues. Its strength has helped the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climb to a 1.0% gain.

As for the overall tech sector, it is stuck at the neutral line. DJ30 +28.84 NASDAQ -0.93 SP500 +1.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/1.05 bln/1141 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1680/416 mln/1210

12:00 pm : Stocks recently lost their upward momentum. In doing so they have handed back some of their recent gains. That has left the major averages to trade in mixed fashion.

Walgreen (WAG 33.55, +3.20) continues to outperform, though. The stock is up more than 10% in its best single-session performance of the past year following better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. Shares of CVS (31.47, +0.86) are up solidly in conjunction with WAG's solid report. DJ30 +16.09 NASDAQ -2.36 SP500 +1.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1191/946 mln/1264 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1555/372 mln/1333

11:30 am : A spurt of buying has sent the major equity averages into positive territory. Though gains are modest, the stock market's position is much improved from when it was down 0.9% at its session low.

The improved tone of trade has benefited all sectors in the broader market, such that nine of the 10 are now in higher ground. Only materials (-0.2%) have yet to stage a gain.

Treasuries continue to trade with strength, though they are off of their session highs. For example, the benchmark 10-year Note now trades with a 12-tick gain, which has its yield down to 2.48%. Early strength had the Note's yield as low as 2.46%. DJ30 +39.02 NASDAQ +4.14 SP500 +3.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1338/820 mln/1084 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1735/328 mln/1087

11:00 am : The broader market has rebounded form its morning slide, but defensive-oriented sectors consumer staples (+0.3%), health care (+0.3%), and telecom (+0.2%) are the only ones to muster gains. Materials stocks remain in the worst shape, but the sector's 0.5% loss is only about one-third of the loss that it had faced at its session low.

Commodities have extended their recent run into positive territory. As such, oil, natural gas, gold, and silver are all sporting gains. That has teh CRB Commodity Index up to a 0.3% gain. DJ30 +2.37 NASDAQ -4.08 SP500 -1.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1118/680 mln/1279 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1346/270 mln/1441

10:30 am : Commodities have improved from earlier levels. That has helped put the CRB Commodity Index in positive territory with a 0.1% gain.

Oil prices are still in the red, though. The energy component was last quoted with a 0.3% loss at $76.30 per barrel. Prices had been as low as $75.53 per barrel earlier.

Natural gas prices are down 0.1% to $3.80 per MMBtu. It was actually up to $3.85 per MMBtu just recently.

As for precious metals, gold prices are down a narrow 0.1% to $1295.50 per ounce. Silver is under sharper pressure as it contends with a 0.8% loss at $21.30 per ounce. Should silver's loss persist, it would be the first slide in the price of the precious metal in one week. DJ30 -24.74 NASDAQ -12.99 SP500 -3.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 826/512 mln/1494 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/210 mln/1649

10:00 am : Stocks have come under another wave of selling. The latest slide follows news that the Consumer Confidence Index for September came in at 48.5, which is well below the consensus call for 53.0 from economists polled by Briefing.com. What's more, the latest confidence reading is the worst since February.

Weakness has become widespread with all 10 major sectors in the red. Only health care (-0.1%) and consumer staples (-0.2%) have managed to limit their losses.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-1.4%), Tech (-1.0%), Industrials (-1.0%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.9%), Financials (-0.8%), Energy (-0.7%), Telecom (-0.6%), Utilities (-0.5%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%), Health Care (-0.1%)DJ30 -69.09 NASDAQ -25.80 SP500 -9.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 529/339 mln/1732 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 647/140 mln/2071

09:45 am : For the second straight session stocks have rolled over in the opening minutes of trade. This morning's move lower has been led by the materials sector, which is already down 1.3% as fertilizer and agricultural chemicals drop 4.9% and diversified metals and miners slump 2.0%.

Tech stocks are under stiff pressure, too. The sector is currently off by 0.8%. Apple (AAPL 284.49, -6.67) is a primary source of weakness in the sector. The stock started the session below the $280 level, though there have been no official news items to account for its initial weakness. DJ30 -37.76 NASDAQ -16.19 SP500 -4.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 631/200 mln/1550 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 692/88 mln/1952

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. Stock futures now point to a solid start to the session. They had displayed early weakness, which was underpinned by renewed worries about sovereign debt. However, those concerns have been alleviated by speculation that European central banks will purchase troubled debt so as to keep debt markets moving. Such speculation has also helped Europe's major bourses erase losses of more than 1%. Just hitting newswires, a member of the Bank of England has made a case for further monetary stimulus as he advocates further bond purchases. The British pound has since slide to a 0.2% loss while the euro has rallied to a 0.3% gain. News and data out of the U.S. remains light, but 10:00 AM ET brings the release of the September Consumer Confidence Index. Results from an auction of 5-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80. Stock futures continue to improve gradually, though little immediate response has been made to the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for July. It came in at 148.9, which is a narrow improvement from the 148.0 recorded for June. The seasonally adjusted 20-city composite slipped 0.1% month-over-month after a downwardly revised 0.2% monthly increase for June.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. Futures for the S&P 500 have improved a bit. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX had been off by as much as 1.2% amid rekindled concerns about sovereign debt in Spain and renewed worries about the overall cost of a bailout of nationalized Anglo Irish Bank. However, the German bourse is now up 0.3% following speculation that European central banks are buying troubled debt. Deutsche Lufthansa has been a leader in the rebound. As for data, Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for October came in at 4.9, up from 4.1 in September. France's CAC fell as much as 1.5%, but it has cut that to a fractional loss. LVMH Moet Hennes has been a primary source of support. Consumer spending for August fell 1.6%, which is a sharp reversal from the 1.4% increase of July. Britain's FTSE is up 0.3% after it had been down 1.2% at its session low. Decliners still have a substantial edge over advancers. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has been a heavy drag, but Xstrata (XTA) has provided some support. The final reading for United Kingdom second quarter GDP showed a 1.2% in economic output, unchanged from the prior reading.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei fell 1.1% as declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 3-to-1. TDK Corp and Kyocera (KYO) were among the poorest performers. Japan's Small Business Confidence Index for September slipped to 47.3 from 48.4 in August. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed with a 0.6% loss. Reports indicate that officials stated companies that are unable to develop land within a year of taking ownership will not be allowed to participate in future auctions, but China Petroleum (SNP) and PetroChina (PTR) led the list of declining issues. Aluminum Corp showed resilience, though. The company recently stated it would invest in rare earth metals. The stock was also a standout in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which shed 1.0%. Heavyweights HSBC (HBC) and China Mobile hampered action the most.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.80. Stocks finished the prior session near their lows, but the tone of trade this morning is rather flat. Asia's averages fell overnight in response to Wall Street's weak finish, but Europe's major bourses are back near the neutral line after each fell about 1% amid renewed concerns about sovereign debt. The euro has also mended its early morning loss so that it now sports a slight lead over the dollar. Corporate news flow is light with both Walgreens (WAG) and Jabil Circuit (JBL) out with better-than-expected earnings. Home prices under the S&P/CaseShiller Index for July are scheduled for release at 9:00 AM ET. The September reading on consumer confidence is due at 10:00 AM ET. Results from an auction of 5-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET.

06:46 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50.

06:46 am : Nikkei...9495.76...-107.40...-1.20%. Hang Seng...22109.95...-230.90...-1.00%.

06:46 am : FTSE...5558.20...-15.20...-0.30%. DAX...6295.20...+16.50...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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