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 Post subject: September 21st Tuesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +21.20
PostPosted: Tue Sep 21, 2010 9:35 pm 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from Youtube Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading to provide that context to better understand the trading day. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=78&t=625

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Trade Performance for Today: +21.20 points or $2120 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.

Quote:
Personal View of Today's Volatility: I came out of the gate being aggressive and it was costly due to the fact that Emini TF lost it's volatility and then begin to range. Simply, I became dependent upon the FOMC Announcement to create the needed volatility to dig me out of the red so that I could close the day at a profit...the FOMC did just that...produced consistent volatility that I was able to exploit the price action after the interest rate announcement. In fact, most of my trades after the announcement were profitable along with a very large winner. In comparison, my trades in the morning prior to the announcement were mostly losers. Simply, today is a good example of how important volatility is to my trading.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about any thing related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=119. However, you must join the TSL Support Forum to access the free study guide. To register...click here.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=121&t=761

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Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Stocks End Mixed After Fed Rally Cools
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By CNNMoney.com staff
September 21, 2010: 4:56 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended the session mixed after giving up gains posted during a short-lived afternoon rally sparked by the Federal Reserve's signal that it will take any action necessary to support the recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) finished up 7 points, or 0.1%. Earlier, it had added as many as 79 points.

The S&P 500 (SPX) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP), which had spiked about 0.5%, pulled back to finish 0.3% lower. The S&P lost 3 points and the Nasdaq slipped 7 points.

Stocks had been drifting lower for most of the session as investors awaited news from the Fed, which left interest rates unchanged near historic lows between 0% and 0.25%, where they have been since December 2008.

But investors looking for references to quantitative easing, the central bank's recent policy of buying bonds to stimulate the economy, cheered after Federal Reserve said it was "prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery."

That marked the first time the Fed has used quantitative easing type language, heartening investors. Stocks recouped the losses and surged into positive territory.

"The market liked the fact that the Fed said it will take whatever measures are necessary to keep the economy from slipping further," said Tom Schrader, managing director at Stifel Nicolaus. "Investors viewed that as sign that the Fed may implement further quantitative easing measures in the future if they need to."

But the rally lost steam, as investors considered the Fed's economic outlook and the effectiveness of the possible stimulus measures.

* World's most inept central bankers

The central bank warned that the recovery has "slowed" in recent months and is "likely to be modest in the near-term."

"Investors are also concerned the about the pace of the recovery and fear that quantitative easing measures are the only tool the Fed has left," Schrader said. "They're not sure if those are enough, or even if they were all that effective the first time around," he said.

At its previous meeting, the Federal Reserve was cautious about the recovery, saying it plans to reinvest its debt into longer-term Treasury securities.

Stocks had closed at their highest levels since mid-May on Monday as the S&P 500 index crossed technical levels after a key group of economists called an official end to the recession.

Economy. The government released one of several readings on the housing market due this week.

Housing starts hit a four-month high, surging 10.5% to an annual rate of 598,000, the Commerce Department said. Economists were expecting the annual rate to rise by a modest 1.7%, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com.

Building permits also rose, edging up 1.8% to an annual rate of 569,000.

Companies: Shares of Adobe sank almost 12% in after hours trading after the software maker's fiscal fourth quarter sales outlook missed analysts' expectations.

Adobe said it expects to earn between $950 million and $1 billion in revenue during the current quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast the San Jose, Calif.-company to rake in over $1 billion.

Hewlett-Packard said late Monday that it has settled its lawsuit against Mark Hurd, the company's ousted CEO, after the tech giant claimed he breached his separation agreement by taking a job at rival Oracle.

Hurd resigned from HP (HPQ, Fortune 500) in August after he was cleared of sexual harassment charges but accused of violating the company's code of ethics. Shares of HP ended down 0.3%.

World markets: European closed mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 0.1% lower, while the CAC 40 in France rose 0.2% and Germany's DAX gained 0.1%.

In Asia, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong and Shanghai Composite finished the session slightly higher. Japan's Nikkei index fell about 0.3%.

* Video: Dodging a double-dip

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the Japanese yen and was up slightly against the British pound.

The expiring October oil futures contract fell $1.34 to settle at $73.52 a barrel. Oil futures for November delivery, which will be the active contract beginning Wednesday, fell $1.27 to $74.93 a barrel.

Gold for December delivery fell $6.50 to settle at $1,274.30 an ounce, but surged in electronic trading to a new record high following the Fed's announcement. The precious metal spiked to $1,292.40 an ounce in the late afternoon.

Gold settled at a record-high close at $1,280.80 an ounce on Monday.

Bonds: The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 2.62% from 2.72% late Monday as prices moved higher. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks shook off a listless start to extend their four-month highs, but they failed to sustain gains in the face of resistance. Not even a pledge of support from the FOMC and better-than-expected housing start and building permit data could prop up the major averages.

Trade started on a rather dull note as the major averages made a modest slip in the opening minutes. Losses were generally contained as the S&P 500 was supported at the 1136 to 1138 zone.

Action was also constricted by caution ahead of the latest FOMC policy statement, but the major averages made some sharp swings with the release of the statement. To no surprise, the target interest rate was left unchanged at the range 0.00% to 0.25%. Consistent with past statements, the Fed stated that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. However, the statement went on to indicate that the Fed is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed.

Though no specific measures were stated, the Fed's expression of support attracted enough buyers to drive the S&P 500 to its best level since May. However, buyers backed away as the benchmark index lost momentum near the 1150 line.

Treasuries also swung higher with the release of the policy statement, but they maintained their gains into the close. The benchmark 10-year Note netted a full point and saw its yield drop back below the 2.60% level for the first time in about 10 days.

The dollar was dropped for a 1.0% loss. It had already been down before the FOMC made its announcement because of a stronger euro following a series of successful sovereign debt offerings from Ireland, Greece and Spain.

Better-than-expected housing starts and building permits during August were overshadowed by the FOMC announcement, though construction materials plays (+3.1%) benefited from the data. Housing starts climbed 10.5% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 598,000, and building permits increased 1.8% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 569,000.

Financials comprised the worst performing sector of the session. The sector's 1.0% loss ate into its 2.0% gain from the prior session.

In contrast, airline stocks were strong. An increased profitability forecast for 2010 from The International Air Transport Association sent the Amex Airline Index up 1.9% to its best level in almost three years.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.2%), Health Care (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-1.0%), Utilities (-0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%), Materials (-0.4%), Energy (-0.1%), Tech (-0.1%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)DJ30 +7.41 NASDAQ -6.48 NQ100 +0.00% R2K -0.8% SP400 -0.6% SP500 -2.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 983/2.14 bln/1636 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1063/1.05 bln/1900

3:30 pm : Soft commodities were the largest advancing sector in commodities today as it posted a 1.9% gain, led higher by a 6.2% rally in Nov orange juice futures.

Today's pit session for Dec gold -which finished lower by 0.4% to $1274.30 per ounce, and Dec silver -which shed 0.7% to settle at $20.64 per ounce, was pretty quiet for both precious metals. However, in after-hours trade, a sell off in the dollar index, prompted by the FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged, both metals spiked into positive territory. The continuous gold contract traded to a new all time high at $1288.50.

Nov crude oil ended lower by 1.4% to $74.94 per barrel. It sold off to its lowest levels heading into the close of pit trade. Oct natural gas rallied for 1.8% to close at $3.93 per MMBtu. It recouped some of its losses from yesterday's sizeable sell off. DJ30 +28.68 NASDAQ -2.43 SP500 -0.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1191/1.7 bln/1393 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1251/728.4 mln/1720

3:00 pm : Stocks made some sharp swings shortly after the release of the latest FOMC policy statement, but they were soon able to stabilize and rally to a fresh four-month high. Since running into resistance near the 1150 line, the S&P 500 has since handed back a chunk of its gains, though. The Dow has also backed down a bit, but it continues to sport a much healthier gain than the S&P 500.

Trading volume also spiked with the release of the FOMC policy statement, though overall volume is still on track for an unimpressive final count.

Meanwhile, Treasuries continue to tick higher. In fact, the 10-year Note is almost up a full point. The move has taken its yield back below 2.60% for the first time in about 10 days. DJ30 +49.40 NASDAQ +3.05 SP500 +1.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/1.56 bln/1266 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1470/648 mln/1481

2:30 pm : Whipsaw trade has followed the release of the latest FOMC policy statement, which was released at 2:15 PM ET. The statement indicated that the target range for the federal funds rate will be maintained at 0.00% to 0.25% and that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The statement also indicated that the Fed is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed.

Stocks now stand at their best levels of the day, though gains are only modest at the moment. The move puts the stock market back at the prior session's high, which also marked a fresh four-month intraday high.

Treasuries have also ticked higher in recent minutes. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is at its best level of the day and its yield is down to 2.65%. DJ30 +55.55 NASDAQ +4.82 SP500 +2.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1186/1.37 bln/1378 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1411/560 mln/1525

2:00 pm : Stocks have bounced off of their session lows without any catalyst or headline crossing newswires.

The move comes as participants prepare for the latest FOMC statement, which is expected to be read in just 15 minutes. DJ30 -3.45 NASDAQ -6.85 SP500 -3.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 982/1.17 bln/1543 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1059/459 mln/1888

1:30 pm : Stocks are still near session lows. Overall losses remain modest, though.

Of the major sectors, only industrials are in higher ground. The sector's 0.1% gain stems from strength in trucking (+2.0%) and building products (+1.3%), which have been helped by this morning's strong housing starts data and building permits data. DJ30 -14.19 NASDAQ -7.12 SP500 -4.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 964/1.09 bln/1564 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1033/421 mln/1891

1:05 pm : Despite better-than-expected August housing start and building permit data, stocks have been in the red for virtually the entire session. Caution ahead of the latest FOMC policy statement, which is expected at 2:15 PM ET, has contained trade, though. Since changes to target interest rates are unlikely, many will look for new clues about the economic outlook or potential plans to protect the recovery from setbacks.

Losses have also been limited by near-term technical support around 1138 line in the S&P 500.

Still, broader market support hasn't done much to help materials stocks. The sector, which is currently down 1.2%, has lagged all session. Most of its weakness is owed to renewed selling against steel stocks and diversified metals and mining plays. Fertilizer and agricultural chemicals stocks are also weak.

Airline stocks have risen above the broader market following news that The International Air Transport Association expects improved profitability for 2010. The Amex Airline Index is up 1.1%.

With stocks still mired Treasuries have attracted interest. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now down to 2.66%.

The dollar has been down all session and currently trails a basket of competing currencies by 0.3%. Most of that is owed to a strong gain by the euro following some successful sovereign debt offerings from Ireland, Greece and Spain. That news initially helped Europe's major bourses, but lackluster action in the U.S. undermined sentiment there. DJ30 -10.86 NASDAQ -6.49 SP500 -3.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 991/1.01 bln/1530 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1099/385 mln/1812

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 has slipped back toward its session low. Losses are still modest, though.

The generally choppy, listless, and restrained action comes ahead of the FOMC policy statement, which is expected to be released at 2:15 PM ET. Participants will likely take their trading cues from the statement's actual verbiage since no rate actions are expected. DJ30 -13.78 NASDAQ -6.28 SP500 -3.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/930 mln/1489 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1103/358 mln/1807

12:00 pm : Support at the 1138 line has helped the S&P 500 retrace a small part of its recent slide, but volatility has picked up a bit with the Volatility Index up 3.5%.

The dollar has stayed under steady pressure this session. It is currently down 0.4% against a basket of competing currencies. The euro has been the best performer against the greenback; it is up 0.6% following a series of successful sovereign debt offerings out of Europe. DJ30 -7.57 NASDAQ -6.39 SP500 -2.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 970/825 mln/1508 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1101/322 mln/1795

11:30 am : A sudden flurry of selling pressure has sent the S&P 500 to a fresh session low. Though overall losses remain relatively modest, weakness has become widespread with eight of the 10 major sectors now in the red -- only health care and industrials have managed to hold on to fractional gains.

The slide by stocks has helped Treasuries climb a couple of ticks, such that the benchmark 10-year Note is now up 10 ticks with a yield of 2.66%. Farther out on the yield curve, the 30-year Bond is up about 23 ticks with a yield of 3.83%. DJ30 -18.70 NASDAQ -8.08 SP500 -3.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 935/710 mln/1522 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1065/283 mln/1790

11:00 am : Steel stocks are down 1.1%. The slide marks their fourth loss in six sessions. The cumulative loss in that time currently stands at 7%. Most of that is due to analyst downgrades on names like U.S. Steel (X 45.16, -0.28) and Nucor (NUE 38.17, -0.59). With steel stocks in such sorry shape, the materials sector is down 0.8% and underperforming the broader market. DJ30 -9.01 NASDAQ -4.57 SP500 -1.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 992/585 mln/1417 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1144/240 mln/1651

10:30 am : Despite weakness in the dollar index, a number of commodities are in the red this morning.

October crude oil has traded in the red all session and just fell to fresh session lows of $73.54 per barrel in recent trade. Currently, crude is 1.5% lower at $73.72 per barrel.

October natural gas, however, is trading near session highs of $3.98 per MMBtu, which were hit after the top of the hour. The energy component began to trend high around 6:00am ET and has been in positive territory since. Currently, natural gas is trading 3.6% higher at $3.96 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are lower this morning. December gold and December silver hit new session lows just after the open of pit trading of $1273.50 per ounce and $20.53 per ounce, respectively. Currently gold is down 0.3% at $1277.50 per ounce, but still just under all-time highs of $1283.70 per ounce. Silver is 0.7% lower at $20.65 per ounce.

In the shipping industry, the Baltic Dry index declined for a seventh consecutive session, losing 2.5% to 2,562 in the overnight session.DJ30 -4.58 NASDAQ -2.71 SP500 -1.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/431.4 mln/1298 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1161/184.5 mln/1602

10:00 am : The broader market continues to chop along in negative territory. Financials have even slipped into the red to trade with a fractional loss after displaying modest strength in the first few minutes.

Airline stocks remain strong, though. As such, the Amex Airline Index is up 1.1%. The advance comes amid news that The International Air Transport Association revised higher its 2010 industry outlook so that it reflects improved profitability.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-0.7%), Telecom (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%), Tech (-0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Financials, Health Care, IndustrialsDJ30 -6.17 NASDAQ -4.29 SP500 -1.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 848/244 mln/1404 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1048/117 mln/1642

09:45 am : Despite a modestly positive tone to premarket trade, stocks slipped a bit at the start of trade. The major equity averages are now down with slight losses.

Materials stocks are under some of the most pressure this morning. The sector's 0.6% slide stems mostly from weakness among fertilizer and agricultural chemicals stocks (-2.6%) like Monsanto (MON 54.21, -1.33). Meanwhile, Potash (POT 148.00, -0.47) is down more modestly after BHP Billiton (BHP 73.59, -0.34) extended its tender offer for POT to November 18, but has maintained the $130 per share bid price, though that price is well below POT's current price. DJ30 -2.20 NASDAQ -4.88 SP500 -0.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 729/150 mln/1444 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1070/85 mln/1560

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.80. Stock futures point to a higher start for the session, thanks largely to better-than-expected housing starts data for August and continued strength in Europe following some successful sovereign debt offerings. However, enthusiasm has been contained by a looming FOMC policy statement, which is expected at 2:15 PM ET. Since changes to target interest rates are unlikely, many will look for new clues about the economic outlook or potential plans to protect the recovery from setbacks.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80. Europe's major bourses are building on the big gains of the prior session as traders respond positively to some successful debt offerings from Ireland, Greece and Spain. The success of those auctions has also spurred buying in the euro, which currently leads the dollar by 0.5%. Specific to Germany, its DAX is up 0.6% after it climbed 1.4% on Monday. Deutsche Lufthansa and Deutsche Post are primary leaders this time around. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale have helped France's CAC climb 0.8% on top of its 1.8% bounce in the prior session. In Britain, the FTSE is up 0.5% amid leadership from BP Plc (BP), Barclays (BCS), and Lloyds Banking (LYG). The latest leg of gains follows a 1.7% spike in the prior session.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei reopened in lackluster fashion following a holiday on Monday. It fell 0.3% as NTT Data and Fast Retailing outweighed gains by Fanuc LTD and Canon (CAJ). As for data, Japan's Leading Index for July was revised up to 100.0, which is essentially where it has been for the past couple of months. Machine tool orders for August surged 170% after a 145% increase in July. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite mustered a 0.1% gain. It was led by SAIC Motor, Bank of China, and China Petroleum (SNP). Air China was a laggard. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also managed to make a 0.1% gain as advancing issues narrowly edged out decliners. Advancers were led by Cheung Kong and Ping An Insurance, while HSBC (HBC) and China Construction Bank topped the list of laggards.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30. Index futures have made a modest push higher with the release of the latest housing data. Housing starts climbed 10.5% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 598,000 for August. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for an annualized rate of 550,000. Building permits for August increased 1.8% month-over-month to 569,000, which is slightly stronger than the rate of 560,000 permits that had been widely expected. While S&P 500 futures are only up slightly, the better-than-expected data has helped shares of homebuilders extend their rally from the prior session into this morning's premarket trade.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. Stocks made their way to fresh four month highs in the prior session, but the mood this morning is more neutral as participants await the latest FOMC policy statement, which will be released at 2:15 PM ET. Given that rate changes are unlikely, many will look for an updated outlook and clues about further support measures. Also of interest is the latest housing start data, which will be released at 8:30 AM ET. In overseas action, Asia's markets were mixed, but Europe's bourses continue to climb. The euro is also up against the dollar again.

06:45 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00.

06:45 am : Nikkei...9602.11...-24.00...-0.30%. Hang Seng...22002.59...+25.30...+0.10%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5620.61...+18.10...+0.30%. DAX...6320.30...+25.50...+0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
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questions@thestrategylab.com
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