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 Post subject: August 24th Tuesday 2010 Emini TF (No Trades)
PostPosted: Mon Aug 30, 2010 6:51 pm 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from Youtube Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=77&t=603

Quote:
Today's results are NO TRADES (see above #FuturesTrades log). On vacation (no trading) from Aug 23rd Mon - Aug 25th Tues. Then will only trade the first hour of trading on Aug 26th Thurs and Aug 27th Fri because I have personal appointments that includes getting the kids ready for their first week of school.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about any thing related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=119. However, you must join the TSL Support Forum to access the free study guide. To register...click here.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=120&t=731

------------------------------

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

U.S. Stocks Fall on Record Drop in Existing Home Sales: Video
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks declined, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a seven-week low, as a record plunge in home sales cast further doubt on the viability of the economic recovery. Bloomberg's Pimm Fox also speaks.

Stocks Lose Big On Home Sales Shock
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By Blake Ellis, staff reporter
August 24, 2010: 5:11 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Tuesday after a report showing showing a worse-than-expected plunge in existing home sales reignited fears about an economic slowdown.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) sank 134 points, or 1.3%, the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 15 points, or 1.5%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) composite fell 36 points, or 1.7%.

"Economic reports have been close to disastrous," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading. "People are very concerned about the economy and everyone is talking about a double-dip [recession] at this point."

Disappointing economic news has sent investors flocking to the perceived safety of Treasurys and the Japanese yen, which hit a 15-year high against the dollar early Tuesday.
Global economy going nowhere fast

Losers outnumbered winners by three to one on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq.

Declines were led by tech, finance and health care stocks, with General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) and Sony (SNE) sliding more than 2%, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) dropping more than 1% and Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) slipping 2%. Among the biggest losers, Medtronic (MDT, Fortune 500) shares sank 11% after the medical device maker booked disappointing quarterly earnings and lowered its full-year outlook.

Wall Street struggled through another choppy session Monday, with stocks finishing lower as ongoing worries about the global economy pushed excitement about deal-making talks to the backburner.

Economy: The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales plummeted 27% last month to an annual rate of 3.83 million units, marking the lowest sales pace since the association began tracking the figure in 1999. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast a rate of 4.72 million units.
Plunging home sales could sink recovery

"This number coming in lower than even the most bearish expectations just confirms the same deteriorating economic conditions we've been seeing," said Ryan Detrick, a senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "The economy seems to be very quickly slowing down and not showing signs of life."

A report on new home sales is due Wednesday, and economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect a slight increase to an annual rate of 334,000 units in July from 330,000 in June.

Meanwhile, a report released Tuesday showed that disagreements among the 17 key Federal Reserve officials about how to handle the economy peaked at a meeting earlier this month, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Currencies, bonds and commodities: The dollar fell to a 15-year low against the Japanese yen in early trading, slipped against the euro, but climbed against the British pound.

"The yen is extremely strong, giving people real concern about our economy," said Saluzzi. "And with the 10-year yield this low, it shows people are really willing to put their money into Treasurys. All of this together means the risk trade is definitely off."
0:00 /:56Yen surge could hurt exporters

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note approached a 17-month low Tuesday, falling to 2.50% from 2.6% late Monday.

Treasury yields have been holding near historic lows recently as economic jitters have boosted the appeal of so-called "safe" investments such as government-backed debt.

In other markets, oil futures for October delivery fell $1.47 to settle at $71.63 a barrel. Gold for December delivery added $4.90, settling at $1,233.40 an ounce.

World markets: European shares finished sharply lower. The CAC 40 in France dropped 1.7%, Britain's FTSE 100 lost 1.5% and the DAX in Germany fell 1.3%.

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index ended down 1.3% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 1.1%. But the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.4%.

Companies: Barnes & Noble (BKS, Fortune 500), which put itself up for sale earlier this month, posted a quarterly loss that widely missed expectations and said same-store sales fell in the first quarter.

Shares of the bookseller ended more than 2% lower.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Economic uncertainty has led stocks lower in four straight sessions for a cumulative loss of 3.9%. Paltry existing home sales figures for July only added ambiguity to the economic outlook.

The major equity averages opened trade with losses of about 1%. The opening slide reflected the weak action of markets overseas, where Germany's DAX dropped below its 200-day moving average for the first time in more than one month and Japan's Nikkei entered bear market territory. The Shanghai Composite mustered a modest gain, but it also near bear market territory.

Sellers intensified their efforts with the release of existing home sales figures for July. Sales plummeted 27% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 3.8 million units. Not only is that far below the 4.7 million units that had been expected, but the rate of decline and the actual sales level were the worst since records began in 1999.

Hope for a revival in housing was further dashed with news that the total supply of homes now stands at 12.5 months. That said, some believe a double dip in housing is likely.

Such pessimistic headlines sent the three major indices set fresh one-month intraday lows - the Dow even briefly dropped below 10,000 - but some near-term support helped stocks stem their losses.

Only defensive-oriented telecom stocks and utilities stocks staged gains. Both sectors advanced 0.3%.

The dollar had been strong in the early going, but concerns about the health of the U.S. economy undercut the currency. It was up 0.5% at its high and retreated into the red before finishing flat. Amid the dollar's downturn, the Japanese yen set a fresh 15-year high of 83.6 yen per dollar.

The dollar's drop and an interest in safety squeezed gold prices higher. The precious metal had been down more than 1% in early pit trade, but it settled with a 0.3% gain at $1233.40 per ounce.

In contrast, oil prices on October contracts fell 2.0% to close at $71.63 per barrel. In relation to the continuous contract, that's the lowest close since early June.

A strong bid for Treasuries drove yields to new annual lows, but Treasuries pulled back after stocks started to stem their losses.

Results from an auction of 2-year Notes did little to alter the preferences of participants. Both the auction's bid-to-cover ratio of 3.1 and its dollar demand of $115.4 billion were below averages of recent sessions.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+0.3%), Telecom (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-2.3%), Health Care (-2.0%), Industrials (-2.0%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.7%), Financials (-1.7%), Tech (-1.6%), Energy (-1.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%)DJ30 -133.73 NASDAQ -35.87 NQ100 -1.8% R2K -1.2% SP400 -1.6% SP500 -15.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 670/2.17 bln/1965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 730/1.17 bln/2286

3:30 pm : Precious metals were the sole advancing sector in the CRB Commodity Index today, as they gained 1.3%. Sept silver rallied for 2.2% to close at $18.38 per ounce, while Dec silver gained 0.3% to finish at $1233.40 per ounce. Both metals were beneficiaries of a flight to safety.

Energy was one of the five sectors that finished in negative territory today, all hindered by concerns about the economy. Oct crude oil closed down 2% to $71.63 per barrel as risk averse money left the risk-asset to look for safer havens. Sept natural gas shed -0.4% to close at $4.04 per MMBtu.DJ30 -79.50 NASDAQ -24.10 SP500 -10.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 908/1.7 bln/1714 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 900/829.8 mln/2102

3:00 pm : Utilities stocks and telecom stocks make up the only two sectors that are in higher ground. Both have managed to make 0.5% gains.

Electric utilities are strong for the second straight session. For example, Dominion Resources (D 44.59, +0.24), Duke Energy (DUK 17.23, +0.17), and Southern (SO 36.41, +0.53) have found favor. Shares of DUK were actually downgraded by analysts at Citigroup.

As for the telecom sector, investors have shown interest in the high dividend yield currently sported by shares of the stodgy, stable integrated telecom giants AT&T (T 26.72, +0.23) and Verizon (VZ 29.62, +0.21). Based on their current share prices, their dividend yields stand at 6.3% and 6.5%, respectively. DJ30 -107.16 NASDAQ -29.64 SP500 -12.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 768/1.52 bln/1832 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 799/740 mln/2189

2:30 pm : The stock market is headed for its fourth straight loss. As things currently stand, that would make for a cumulative slide of about 3.5%. Stretching the span, stocks are also down for their eighth time in 11 sessions for a cumulative loss of around 6.5%. That makes for the stock market's worst streak since early July.

Trade of late hasn't been much better overseas.

Weakness in Europe has Germany's DAX down more than 6% from its summer and 2010 high. It settled today's trade below its 200-day moving average for the first time in more than one month. France's CAC has closed its latest session more than 8% below its summer high and 15% below its 2010 high. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE has fallen almost 5% from its summer high and about 12% from its 2010 high.

As for Asia, Japan's Nikkei is down more than 12% from its June high. It is also down 21% from its 2010 high. Hong Kong's Hang Seng has shed more than 5% since it set a summer high two weeks ago; it is down almost 9% from its 2010 high. The Shanghai Composite just booked its summer high last week, but it has already pulled back close to 2% from that level. The Shanghai Composite is also down almost 20% from its 2010 high. DJ30 -116.21 NASDAQ -32.78 SP500 -14.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 695/1.43 bln/1902 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 739/690 mln/2248

2:00 pm : Stocks are still down sharply. They also continue to lack any real direction.

This morning the S&P 500 was able to stabilize itself as it approached a loss of about 2%, thanks to near-term technical support. Stocks then swung more than 1% higher, but they still never came close to making their way out of the red. Any attempt to extend the upturn has since been rebuffed and stocks have been left to oscillate in negative territory. DJ30 -117.00 NASDAQ -31.82 SP500 -14.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 729/1.322 bln/1857 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 734/635 mln/2238

1:30 pm : An auction of 2-year Notes produced a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.1 and dollar demand of $115.4 billion. The indirect bidder participation came in at 29.2%. For comparison, the prior session's bid-to-cover was 3.3 on dollar demand of $126.5 billion and indirect bidder participation of 32.8%. For the past five auctions the average bid-to-cover has been close to 3.2, dollar demand near $130.3 billion, and indirect bidder participation has been about 35.3%.

Diminished demand at the auction suggests that conviction has waned amid the low yields currently offered by Treasuries, at least on the shorter end of the yield curve. The 2-year Note is currently flat and its yield stands at 0.47%. Farther out, the 10-year Note and the 30-year Bond remain solidly higher, but they are still off of their session highs. DJ30 -88.55 NASDAQ -24.97 SP500 -10.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 868/1.20 bln/1702 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 878/580 mln/2063

1:05 pm : Soured sentiment among market participants has stocks on track for their fourth straight loss. An ugly housing report has only exacerbated weakness.

An uncertainty about the pace and sustainability of the economic recovery has fueled selling in recent sessions. Such was also the case this morning as the preference for safety and capital preservation led to a selloff in equities.

Stocks had already been down more than 1% before existing home sales figures for July were released. Monthly sales plummeted 27% to an annualized rate of 3.8 million units, which is below the 4.7 million unit that had been expected. What's more, both the rate of decline and the actual sales level were the worst since records began in 1999. Total supply of homes now stands at 12.5 months. Such bleak conditions fail to offer encouragement to those hoping for a housing-led recovery.

The downbeat data spurred further selling, such that the Dow broke below 10,000 for the first time in more than a month and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sank to monthly lows of their own. Since the broader market was able to hold near-term support levels just above 1045, some relief buying has helped stocks trim some of their losses, but the rally effort has begun to fade.

The data also drove selling against the dollar, which had been quite strong in the early going. The greenback is still down fractionally against a basket of competing currencies. Amid the dollar's downturn, the Japanese yen set a fresh 15-year high of 83.6 yen per dollar.

Precious metals have found favor after displaying weakness in early pit trade. Gold prices were down more than 1%, but the yellow metal now sports a 0.6% gain at $1233.80 per ounce.

A strong bid for Treasuries drove yields to new annual lows. Treasuries have since handed back a chunk of their gains, though. DJ30 -106.45 NASDAQ -28.19 SP500 -12.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 787/1.11 bln/1785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 775/528 mln/2173

12:30 pm : Stocks have started to turn lower after making a strong push up from session lows. The move actually took the S&P 500 up more than 1% from its low near 1046 to the 1060 line, but resistance has kept the stock market from extending the advance. DJ30 -94.19 NASDAQ -25.38 SP500 -11.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 782/1.04 bln/1769 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 797/500 mln/2116

12:00 pm : Despite a negative tone among market participants, small-cap stocks have managed to limit their losses to just 0.5%, according to the Russell 2000. The relatively modest loss comes even though many consider small caps to be riskier than the larger, more stable names of the Dow or S&P 500.

Diamond Management (DTPI 12.45, +2.91) is a leading performer among small-cap stocks. The consulting firm will be acquired by PricewaterhouseCoopers for $12.50 per share, which is a premium of roughly 30% over the stock's prior session closing price. DJ30 -92.03 NASDAQ -23.56 SP500 -10.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 819/942 mln/1704 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 833/455 mln/2060

11:30 am : The stock market continues to work its way up from its morning low. The effort recently put the S&P 500 in touch with the 1057 line, which marks key point on the retracement path. Resistance at that point has caused stocks to pause.

Volatility has cooled a bit. In turn, the Volatility Index is now up roughly 6% after it had been up 12% at its session high, which was registered during the release of the ugly existing home sales report. DJ30 -85.82 NASDAQ -23.79 SP500 -10.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 698/804 mln/1791 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 703/398 mln/2188

11:00 am : Stocks have bounced back to the levels that they had traded at before the release of the dour housing data. Overall losses remain steep, though.

Treasuries have pulled back a bit as the stock market gets some relief, but they remain in good shape.

Meanwhile, the dollar has slumped in recent trade. It had been up as much as 0.5% against a basket of competing currencies, but it is now down to a 0.1% loss. The dollar's downturn has driven the Japanese yen even higher, such that the currency recently set a fresh 15-year high of 83.6 yen per dollar. DJ30 -103.38 NASDAQ -30.24 SP500 -12.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 516/646 mln/1934 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 532/334 mln/2322

10:30 am : Select commodities extended losses at the top of the hour following poor housing data. Around the same time, a sharp decline in the US Dollar Index pushed precious metals into positive territory.

After trading in negative territory all session, December gold rallied back into positive territory just before 10:00am ET and is currently trading 0.78% higher at $1235.80 per ounce. September silver also rallied hard, pushing to new session highs of $18.48 per ounce and is currently just below that level at $18.43 per ounce, up 2.4%.

October crude oil has been in negative territory all session and just hit new session lows of $71.45 per barrel in recent trade. Currently crude is 1.3% lower at $72.12 per barrel. September natural gas has spent most of its time in the red this morning and also hit its own new session lows of $4.03 per MMBtu, around the same time crude did. Currently, the energy component is 0.4% lower at $4.05 per MMBtu.DJ30 -125.86 NASDAQ -33.43 SP500 -14.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 422/508.7 mln/1994 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 430/268.5 mln/2413

10:00 am : Stocks have dropped another leg lower with the release of the latest existing home sales figures. The knee-jerk reaction briefly sent the Dow below 10,000 for the first time in more than one month.

According to the latest data, existing home sales for July plummeted 27% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 3.8 million units, which is well below the annualized rate of 4.7 million unit that had been expected , on average, by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com.

The drop in stock prices has spurred further buying in Treasuries, such that the benchmark 10-year Note is now up a full point and the 30-year Bond is now up more than two points.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Industrials (-2.6%), Consumer Discretionary (-2.1%), Health Care (-2.0%), Materials (-1.9%), Financials (-1.8%), Tech (-1.7%), Energy (-1.4%), Telecom (-0.8%), Consumer Staples (-0.6%), Utilities (-0.3%)DJ30 -159.16 NASDAQ -39.60 SP500 -17.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 341/284 mln/1999 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 298/135 mln/2464

09:45 am : Sharp pressure has each of the major equity averages down by 1% or more in the first few minutes of trade. Only defensive-oriented stocks have managed to limit their losses -- consumer staples (-0.2%), utilities (-0.4%), and telecom (-0.6%).

Leading up to the existing home sales report at 10:00 AM ET, shares of homebuilders are down a collective 1.3% and home improvement retailers are down 1.5%. Their weakness has made the consumer discretionary sector (-1.5%) one of this morning's worst performing sectors.

Precious metals were down in early pit trade, but they have since put together a rally. Gold has trimmed its loss so that it is now down just 0.2% at $1226.60 per ounce and silver is up 1.2% to $18.21 per ounce. DJ30 -114.73 NASDAQ -29.57 SP500 -13.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 350/190 mln/1936 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 294/98 mln/2442

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.50. Stocks have already fallen in three straight sessions, but further selling this morning has stock futures pointing toward the market's lowest open in more than a month. The downturn in sentiment comes amid a rekindled sense of uncertainty regarding the pace and sustainability of the economic recovery. Participants get their latest dose of data with the latest existing home sales figures at 10:00 AM ET. Uneasiness among investors has sent many into Treasuries, many of which now offer their lowest yields in more than a year. The dollar has also advanced, but so has the yen. The yen actually hit a 15-year high against the greenback earlier this morning.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.30. Selling pressure has extended to the commodities pits, where the price of oil has dropped 1.7% to a new one-month low of $71.85 per barrel in the first few minutes of trade. Despite its role as a safe haven, gold has fallen out of favor. The precious metal was recently quoted with a 1.3% loss at $1211.50 per ounce, about a dollar above its 50-day moving average. General weakness among commodities has the CRB Commodity Index down 1.3%, which puts it on pace for its worst single-session performance of the past month. Such a slide has the CRB below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early July.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.50. Domestic stock futures currently point to a sharply lower start that would put the S&P 500 at its worst level in over a month. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is already down 1.6% to a new one one-month low. It is also below its 200-day moving average for the first time in more than a month. The weak action follows the final second quarter GDP report, which indicated that the German economy grew 2.2% quarter-over-quarter. Ensuing weakness has been widespread, such that 29 of the bourse's 30 components are in the red - only Fresenius Medical has managed to muster a gain. Meanwhile, the yield on Germany's 10-year Bund is down to 2.18%, which is its lowest level in more than a decade. In France, the CAC has fallen to a 2.0% loss. Only Lagardere and Suez Environnement are in higher ground. Britain's FTSE is off by 1.8%. Though all 10 major sectors are in the red, a 3.0% slide by materials stocks has made them the session's worst performers. The British pound is also under pressure; it is currently down 0.7% against the greenback. Weakness in the currency comes after an official from the Bank of England stated that there is real risk of a second recession.

In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite managed to put together a 0.4% gain. It was led higher by PetroChina (PTR). China Petroleum (SNP) finished flat. Its shares were recently upgraded by analysts at HSBC. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Shed 1.1% to settle below its 50-day moving average for the first time in more than a month. Materials stocks sank 4.4% and tech plays dropped 4.2%. Consumer staples plays put together a 1.5% gain. In Japan, the Nikkei fell 1.3% to its lowest level in 15 months. Kyocera (KYO) and Fast Retailing were the heaviest drags. Meanwhile, weakness among exporters was exacerbated by a stronger yen, which ascended to a 15-year high of 83.7 yen per dollar. It is currently just shy of that mark.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.00. Stock futures are under sharp pressure. Losses are also pronounced among overseas markets, though the Shanghai Composite managed to climb 0.4%. Such widespread weakness has bolstered safety plays like the dollar and the yen, which recently hit a 15-year high of 84.2 yen per dollar. Treasuries are also strong, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note now stands at a 15-month low of 2.53%. The yield on the 2-year Note hasn't quite returned to its all-time low of about 0.45%. Results from an auction of 2-year Notes are due this afternoon (1:00 PM ET). Prior to that, existing home sales figures for July will be released (10:00 AM ET).

06:53 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.30.

06:53 am : Nikkei...8995.14...-121.60...-1.30%. Hang Seng...20658.71...-230.30...-1.10%.

06:53 am : FTSE...5177.09...-57.80...-1.10%. DAX...5953.46...-57.50...-1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
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