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 Post subject: August 20th Friday 2010 Emini TF (No Trades)
PostPosted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 2:38 am 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from Youtube Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=77&t=601

Quote:
Today's results are NO TRADES (see above #FuturesTrades log). As stated for the month of August...I'm either taking the entire trading day off from trading or trading only the first hour of the day to spend more time with the family and to re-energize while the notorious August road kills continue. The August road kill is me slapping a label on a part of the summer trading session where traders need to be very careful because the price action usually is crappy. Thus, August is a great month for vacations and/or extra days away from the markets to get personal stuff completed.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about any thing related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=119. However, you must join the TSL Support Forum to access the free study guide. To register...click here.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=120&t=731

------------------------------

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

U.S. Stocks Decline as S&P 500 Drops for Second Week: Video
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. Stocks fell, extending a second straight weekly decline for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as a drop in commodities pulled oil and metals producers down amid concern the economic rebound may be flagging.

Dow and S&P Post 2nd Week Of Losses
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By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter
August 20, 2010: 4:18 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended mostly lower Friday as investors continued to react to the week's downbeat economic reports that have raised concern about a double-dip recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 58 points, or 0.6%, to close at 10,213 and the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 4 points, or 0.4%, to close at 1,072, according to early tallies. It was the second straight week of losses for the two indexes.

Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) composite gained less than a point to 2,180, and up slightly overall for the week.

Stocks tumbled Thursday after three key economic reports slammed confidence. Weekly jobless claims rose to their highest level since November, manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region slowed, and a key measure of future economic activity was less than had hoped.

The Dow lost 1.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both shed 1.7%.

"When the area of great concern in the market place (jobs) gets a dismal report and the bright spot in the economy (manufacturing) gets whacked into oblivion, fear came back into the marketplace," Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst with PFG Best, said in a note to investors. "Some call it the risk aversion trade but I say that's a polite way of saying people are scared."

Weak economic reports have spurred worries about a slower recovery this summer, but bullish traders have been eager to put those fears on the back burner amid some strong earnings from Fortune 500 companies in the last few weeks. Now that the quarterly reports are tapering off, some of those gloomy economic reports are once again taking over the spotlight.

"Investors remain on edge over the direction of the economy," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners. "Recent economic reports, especially employment data, continue to be a worry for the market and overshadow the good news, including the expansion of corporate America."

While takeover activity and merger deals are picking up steam, a sign that companies are preparing for "better times," Cardillo said the market is still debating whether the economy is headed for a double-dip recession.

Companies: Shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) dropped 3.4% to $48.72 after analysts at Morgan Stanley downgraded the BlackBerry maker to a "sell" rating because the company could lose market share more quickly than previously anticipated.

The downgrade sent the stock inching closer to the company's 52-week low of $47.42 a share.

Economy: State unemployment turned gloomier in July, with jobless rates rising in 14 states and remaining unchanged in another 18. But 18 states and the District of Columbia saw a decrease in their unemployment rates, according to the Labor Department's monthly report on state unemployment.

The state unemployment picture was slightly worse than in June, when jobless rates eased in more than half of all U.S. states for a third straight month and only five states reported jobless rate increases.

The report came a day after a separate government reading showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance unexpectedly surged last week.

World markets: European shares closed lower. Germany's DAX fell 1.2% and the CAC 40 in France slipped 1.3%. Britain's FTSE 100 was 0.3% lower.

Asian markets ended the session in negative territory. Japan's Nikkei led declines in the region, sinking nearly 2%. The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.7% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.4%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, the U.K. pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil futures for September delivery settled down 97 cents to $73.46 a barrel. Gold for December delivery slipped $6.60 to settle at $1,228.80.

Bonds: Prices for Treasurys dipped in afternoon trading, sending the yield on the 10-year note up to 2.61% from 2.57% late Thursday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:10 pm : Stocks closed off their worst levels of the session, bottoming around midday and moving higher throughout most of the afternoon trade. The Nasdaq was the best performer closing fractionally higher while the Dow lagged, falling 0.6%.

The utilities sector outperformed, finishing higher by 0.2%. Within the sector, NextEra Energy (NEE 53.26, +1.42), PG&E Corp (PCG 45.85, +0.75), and Southern Company (SO 35.79, +0.30) were among the biggest gainers.

Energy stocks lagged with the sector closing down 1.2%. Denbury Resources (DNR 14.68, -0.54), Nabors Industries (NBR 16.53, -0.65), and Halliburton (HAL 27.82, -0.74) were among the biggest decliners in the space.

Semiconductors closed up 0.4% thanks to leadership from Marvell (MRVL 16.16, +1.25) which reported in-line earnings for the latest quarter, and announced a $500 million share repurchase program.

Elsewhere in the tech space, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 39.84, -0.92) reported earnings that were in-line with their pre-announcement that occurred when former CEO Mark Hurd resigned. Meanwhile, Dell (DELL 12.08, +0.04) saw little movement in shares following an upside earnings surprise and a reaffirmed outlook.

Treasuries saw early interest with the 2-yr yield falling near 0.45%, another record low, while the 10-yr yield fell to a 15-month low of 2.53%. By the end of the session, treasuries turned their gains into losses with the 10-yr ending the day yielding 2.609%.

The dollar index reached its best level since late July, crossing 83.30 before selling off to the 83.00 area. The dollar strength pushed the euro to a low of 1.2664 before it saw a bounce north of 1.2700. The yen traded near 85.30 for much of the overnight session, but weakened to the 85.80 area as the U.S. trading day dragged on.

Volume was strong for a Friday in August due to today's options expiration. More than 1.12 billion shares changed hands on the floor of the NYSE. DJ30 -57.59 NASDAQ +0.81 SP500 -3.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1272/1.90 bln/1721 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1231/1.12 bln/1721

3:30 pm : Energy (-1.2%) and precious metals (-1.2%) lead the commodities sector lower today. Oct crude oil futures finished lower by 1.3% to $73.85 per barrel. Crude was once again marred by concerns about the economy and finished the session in the red for the third consecutive day and for the eighth session in 9 days. Sept natural gas shed 1.5% to close at $4.11 per MMBtu. It traded to its lowest levels in close to three months weighed on by bearish fundamentals.

Dec gold futures shed 0.5% to finish at $1228.80 per ounce, while Sept silver dropped 2% to end at $17.99 per ounce. Strength in the dollar index weighed on both precious metals.DJ30 -62.25 NASDAQ +0.04 SP500 -4.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1212/1.6 bln/1375 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1087/853.3 mln/1863

3:00 pm : The Nasdaq has fought back to the flat line, crossing into positive territory after seeing losses of as much as 20 points. The Dow and S&P have are still lower on the session, but are well off their worst levels. The final hour of trading may see a pick up in volume and volatility as today is options expiration.

The VIX is at its lowest level of the session, falling to 25.82 from 27.00 earlier this morning. The current level represents the 50-day moving average for the VIX, and may provide some support. DJ30 -49.87 NASDAQ +2.81 SP500 -2.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1182/1.43 bln/1392 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1088/784.2 mln /1841

2:30 pm : Earlier this morning, the dollar index pushed to 83.30, its best since late July. The dollar strength sent the euro below 1.2700 before seeing a bounce to its current level near 1.2715. Like the euro, the pound saw a sharp move lower early in the session, but has since pared some of its losses, trading 1.5530. After being unable to penetrate the 85.30 area, the yen has weakened to 85.70 against the greenback as it continues to remain range bound. DJ30 -79.24 NASDAQ -4.81 SP500 -6.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 995/1.30 bln/1585 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 844/729.1 mln/2104

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to chop around on this options expiration Friday. While stocks are off their worst levels of the session, they have so far been unable to recoup the majority of their losses. The Dow is suffering the heaviest losses, down 0.9% while the Nasdaq is the best performing index, only off 0.4%.

Energy stocks have seen the biggest slide thus far with Nabors Industries (NBR 16.41, -0.77), Denbury Resources (DNR 14.59, -0.63, and Halliburton (HAL 27.59, -0.97) lagging. Energy is the worst performing sector in the CRB Commodity Index with crude oil trading at $73.67, down 1.5%. DJ30 -84.91 NASDAQ -7.48 SP500 -7.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 916/1.21 bln/1652 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 782/691.6 mln /2161

1:30 pm : The major market indices are off their worst levels of the session, posting losses between 0.4% and 0.8%.

Utilities are the best performing sector in the S&P 500 with NextEra Energy (NEE 52.82, +0.98), PG&E Corp (PCG 45.51, +0.41), and Southern Company (SO 35.69, +0.20) leading the way.

Due to today's options expiration there has been a surge in volume on the NYSE with more than 650 million shares changing hands. DJ30 -84.69 NASDAQ -3.34 SP500 -7.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 917/1.13 bln/1622 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 752/659.3 mln/2176

1:00 pm : Pressure from the prior session has carried over into today's trade, sending stocks to new monthly lows.

A hangover from the prior session's 1.7% drop put market participants in an early funk. Renewed weakness among overseas markets didn't help. Pressure abroad left the three major European bourses and the major averages of Asia all finish with weekly losses.

Amid the increasingly pessimistic tone of trade, the S&P 500 breached the technical levels that had provided it support in the prior session. In doing so, stocks set fresh lows for August, although they remain above their worst levels of the summer.

A growing sense of uncertainty on the part of participants has stirred an interest in preserving capital. That has driven the dollar to a solid gain. The greenback is currently up 0.7% after setting a fresh one-month high near its 50-day moving average.

Treasuries saw some early interest, but support has begun to fade. Specifically, the yield on the 2-year Note fell to another record low, this time near 0.45%, while the yield on the 10-year Note hit a new 15-month low of 2.53%, but both are now flat. At the far end of the yield curve the 30-year Bond still sports a solid gain; it is currently up 20 ticks with a yield of 3.62%. This morning the yield on the 30-year Bond was actually below 3.60% for the first time in 14 months.

Though the mood of trade has been weak all session, semiconductor stocks have managed to attract some modest support. As a group, semiconductor stocks are up 0.1% at the moment, thanks to leadership from Marvell (MRVL 16.18, +1.27), which reported in-line earnings for its latest quarter and announced that $500 million will be allocated to share repurchases.

Elsewhere in the tech space, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 39.61, -1.15) has been a laggard. The company's weakness comes in the face of an in-line earnings report and reaffirmed forecast. Meanwhile, Dell (DELL 11.99, -0.05) has had a lackluster session following its upside earnings surprise and reaffirmed outlook.

Trading volume is already well above a half billion shares on the NYSE. The surge in share volume comes amid options expirations, rather than the result of any key catalyst that has brought participants in from the sidelines. DJ30 -97.82 NASDAQ -11.95 SP500 -8.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 846/1.06 bln/1679 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 658/627 mln/2263

12:30 pm : Stocks have started to slowly work their way up from session lows. Trade remains listless, though.

Despite persistent weakness in the broader market, semiconductor stocks are showing strength. Specifically, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 0.2% at the moment. DJ30 -103.61 NASDAQ -14.13 SP500 -9.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 782/958 mln/1738 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 625/597 mln/2275

12:00 pm : Stocks have fallen to a fresh session low, which also makes for a new monthly low. Though stocks are still above their worst levels of the summer, the S&P 500's return to the 1065 level puts it in the same spot that it probed during the "flash crash" of early May.

For the second straight session weakness is quite broad, such that declining issues outnumber advancers by more than 5-to-1 and seven of the 10 major sectors are down by 1% or more. Defensive oriented consumer staples (-0.3%) and utilities (-0.3%), along with tech (-0.6%) are the only sectors that have successfully limited their losses to less than 1%. DJ30 -114.05 NASDAQ -18.34 SP500 -11.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 664/873 mln/1824 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 552/561 mln/2335

11:30 am : Stocks recently returned to their lows, but they couldn't extend the move in the face of technical resistance.

The dollar remains a strong performer, though. It is currently up 0.9% against a basket of major foreign currencies, but most of its move has come against the euro, which is down 0.9%. Not to be ignored, the British pound is down 0.6% and the yen is off by 0.4%. DJ30 -90.67 NASDAQ -13.25 SP500 -8.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 781/765 mln/1680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 593/508 mln/2271

11:00 am : Stocks made a push up from their lows this morning, but the move hasn't materialized into anything more than a moment of modest relief. Stocks are now chopping along with varied losses.

Support for Treasuries has faded a bit. In turn, the 2-year Note, 5-year Note, and 10-year Note are all flat. However, the 30-year Bond is sporting a 20-tick gain. DJ30 -78.07 NASDAQ -10.13 SP500 -6.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 828/645 mln/1607 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 602/455 mln/2217

10:35 am : The US Dollar Index is trading just under session highs of 83.217, which has provided selling pressure to most commodities this morning. Crude and precious metals are trading near their session low in morning trade.

Sept crude fell sharply, and into negative territory, during the overnight session around the same time the dollar index began to rally higher. Crude eventually hit session lows of $73.24 per barrel around 7:00am ET and is currently trading 1% lower at $73.69 per barrel.

Sept natural gas hit session lows around 6:30am ET and after an attempted reversal, the energy component is trading 0.6% at $4.15 per MMBtu.

Precious metals have been in the red all morning and hit new session lows in recent activity (Gold $1223.60, SIlver $17.92). Currently gold is trading 0.7% lower at $1227.30 per ounce and silver is 2.1% lower at $17.95 per ounce.DJ30 -75.68 NASDAQ -9.64 SP500 -6.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 730/541.3 mln/1577 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 541/412.4 mln/2212

10:00 am : After extending its August low by a modest margin, the stock market has made a bit of a bounce to improve its position. However, weakness remains widespread as all 10 major sectors trade with losses.

Tech and consumer staples stocks make up the only two sectors that have managed to limit their moves lower. Both are down just 0.1%.

At the moment, tech stocks are being led by Salesforce.com (CRM 109.44, +13.03), which is benefiting from a short squeeze after posting better-than-expected earnings and issuing upside guidance. Meanwhile, consumer staples stocks are currently led by J.M. Smucker (SJM 59.32, +1.29), which posted an upside earnings surprise of its own and reaffirmed its outlook.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-1.2%), Industrials (-1.1%), Telecom (-0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%), Materials (-0.7%), Financials (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.5%), Utilities (-0.4%), Tech (-0.1%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)DJ30 -65.35 NASDAQ -4.59 SP500 -5.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 811/350 mln/1415 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 533/340 mln/2163

09:45 am : Early weakness has led the S&P 500 to a fractionally extended August low, but there hasn't been much conviction behind the move. Instead, the benchmark index is back near the 1068 line, which was the previous monthly low set earlier this week.

Overall losses are a bit modest, but energy stocks are experiencing particular pressure as they drop 1.2%. The energy sector's slide is led by losses among oil and gas drillers (-2.9%) and equipment plays (-2.0%). A 1.0% drop in oil prices to $73.70 per barrel hasn't helped the sector's prospects. Oil prices actually set a fresh one-month low of $73.24 per barrel earlier this morning. DJ30 -76.38 NASDAQ -11.98 SP500 -7.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 604/250 mln/1559 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 444/298 mln/2222

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. The prior session's 1.7% drop has left stocks down 0.3% week-to-date and a negative start to Friday's trade looks to be in order. Renewed weakness comes amid a growing sense of uncertainty about the health of the economy and the state of the stock market. In turn, an interest in preserving capital has bolstered the greenback, which is currently up 0.9% against a basket of major foreign currencies, and boosted bond prices, such that the yield on the 2-year Note set at a new record low and yields on longer maturity Treasuries have dropped to new 52-week lows. There haven't been any data releases this morning and corporate announcements continue to carry little overall weight with the market. Despite such a lack of catalysts, trading volume could see a meaningful spike with the expiration of options today. However, any spike in participation shouldn't be given too much consideration, since it won't take much to surpass the lowly levels of the past few weeks, during which time share volume on the NYSE has averaged fewer than 1 billion shares per session.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. Stock futures have improved their position, but a negative start to trade still looks likely. Commodity futures are also weak, such that the CRB Commodity Index is currently down 0.4%. In the first few minutes of pit trade oil prices are down a sharp 1.3% to $73.45 per barrel, which marks its lowest level in more than a month. Meanwhile, gold prices are down a sharp 0.7% to $1225 per ounce. The pullback by the precious metal comes after it set a one-month high of $1237.60 per ounce in the prior session.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.00.

Germany's DAX has dropped to a 0.9% loss amid broad-based selling. The German bourse is on pace for a weekly loss of 1.5% and down 2.1% month-to-date. This session's slide has been led Allianz and Infineon Tech. Fresenius Medical and E.On AG are the only two names in the 30-member index that have managed to make a gain. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is the only name in France's 40-member index that is currently positive. Weakness in the rest of the index has taken the CAC to a 1.1% loss and down 2.2% week-to-date. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE has fallen to a 0.4% loss. That has the index on track for a 1.6% weekly decline and a 1.2% month-to-date loss. Vodafone and HSBC (HBC) have been the heaviest drags in the latest round of action. As an aside, the euro is presently down a sharp 1.0% against the greenback. Its weakness comes amid comments from a European Central Bank member that suggested stimulus measures should be kept in place through the end of the year, effectively suggesting an exit strategy should be put on hold. A sense of uncertainty and risk aversion has also led global participants to favor the safety of the U.S. dollar.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei dropped to a 2.0% loss. Of its 225 members, only Softbank, Trend Micro, Fuji Electric, and Isuzu Motors staged gains. The drop in the Nikkei resulted in a 0.8% weekly loss for the Japanese index. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite fell to a 1.7% loss in its latest showing. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 7-to-1. Heavyweights PetroChina (PTR), China Petroleum (SNP), and Industrial & Commercial Bank were key sources of weakness, yet again. The trio logged losses in three of this week's five sessions. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.4%. China Mobile provided support, but banking and property plays undermined its leadership. The Hang Seng gave up just 0.4% this week after it fell almost 3% last week.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.80. A hangover from the prior session's selloff and weakness among overseas markets are weighing on stock futures this morning. That has fed a sense of uncertainty and sent many seeking safety in the dollar, which is currently up 0.7%. Treasuries have also benefited from a morning bid. That has the yield on the 2-year Note to a new record low near 0.45% and the yield on the 10-year Note to a new 15-month low of 2.53%. No domestic data is due for release and there are only a few corporate items of interest this morning. Among them, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) posted in-line earnings and reaffirmed its outlook. Marvell (MRVL) also reported in-line results, but Dell (DELL) posted an upside earnings surprise. Apparel retailer Gap (GAP) posted a better-than-expected bottom line and reaffirmed its outlook, while Aeropostale (ARO) reported in-line earnings on light revenue.

06:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.80.

06:31 am : Nikkei...9179.38...-183.30...-2.00%. Hang Seng...20981.82...-90.60...-0.40%.

06:31 am : FTSE...5184.32...-27.00...-0.50%. DAX...6030.53...-44.60...-0.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
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