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 Post subject: August 19th Thursday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.90
PostPosted: Fri Aug 20, 2010 5:03 pm 
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Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

U.S. Stocks Decline; S&P 500 and Dow at Lowest in Month: Video
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks retreated, with benchmark indexes closing at the lowest in a month, as jobless claims increased to the highest level since November and an index of Philadelphia-area manufacturing fell.

Stocks Socked By Economic Trifecta
stock_chart[1].png [ 16.53 KiB | Viewed 97 times ]

By Annalyn Censky, staff reporter
August 19, 2010: 4:58 PM ET

NEW YORK ( -- Investors were hit with a triple whammy of bad economic news Thursday: manufacturing still stinks, more people are jobless and confidence in the future is less than hoped.

As a result, stocks finished sharply lower: the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) tumbled 144 points, or 1.4%, to 10,271 and the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 19 points, or 1.7% to 1,076. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) composite fell 37 points, or 1.7%, 2,179.

Stocks were coming off two days of gains, driven by solid earnings outlooks from retail giants Wal-Mart, Home Depot and Target. But even during this week's earlier rallies, traders were saying they were remaining cautious given fears about a double-dip recession -- or at least, a slower recovery.

Thursday's disappointing numbers on weekly jobless claims, manufacturing in the Philadelphia region and leading indicators just fanned the flames on those gloom-and-doom fears.

"Today's news on the U.S. economy has been nothing but awful," Paul Ashworth, senior economist with Capital Economics said in a note to investors.

A report that showed manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region slowed to a 13-month low "suggests the industrial recovery is teetering on the brink," he said.

Economy: A report from the government showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance unexpectedly jumped 12,000 to 500,000 last week from an upwardly revised 488,000 the previous week. The figure was the highest level since the week ended Nov. 14.

Economists surveyed by were expecting claims to drop to 475,000.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's economic index took an unexpected dive in August, turning to negative 7.7 when analysts had expected a positive 7.5. The index measures manufacturing activity in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware, and any number below zero indicates business activity in the sector is slowing down.

Meanwhile, the index of leading economic indicators - a measure of the economy's future performance - increased a mere 0.1% in July, the Conference Board said. Analysts had forecast a 0.2% increase for the month.

Companies: After the close, Dell reported higher quarterly earnings and revenue that surpassed analysts' forecasts. But shares of Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) fell about 1% in after-hours trading after losing 1.2% during regular hours.

Also after the bell, Hewlett-Packard reported quarterly earnings and sales that strongly topped its year-ago results. HP's (HPQ, Fortune 500) stock dipped 0.3% in after-hours trading, after it fell 1.5% during the day.

Earlier Thursday, Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) said it will acquire security software maker McAfee (MFE) for $7.68 billion. Shares of Intel slipped 3.3%, while McAfee's stock spiked about 57%.
0:00 /2:16GM IPO's unanswered questions

World markets: European stocks closed lower. The FTSE 100 in Britain slipped 1.7% and the DAX in Germany moved down 1.8%. The CAC 40 in France fell 2%.

Asian shares finished the session in positive territory. The Nikkei in Japan climbed 1.3%. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.8% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.2%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro but fell against the U.K. pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil futures for September delivery slipped 99 cents to settle at $74.43 a barrel. Gold for December delivery rose $4 to settle at $1,235.40.

Bonds: Prices for Treasurys were higher. The yield on the 10-year note fell to 2.58% from 2.63% late Wednesday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth: Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers outnumbered winners five to one on volume of 810 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers five to one on volume of 1.8 billion shares.


Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Some ugly data sent stocks spiraling lower Thursday. The selloff slowed when the stock market approached its monthly low, though.

The tone on trading floors turned uneasy with this morning's release of initial jobless claims figures for the week ended August 14. Not only did the tally hit a half million for the first time since November, but it also exceeded the 475,000 claims that had been widely expected.

Early weakness was exacerbated by the worst Philadelphia Fed Index in just over a year. The Index's August reading was widely expected to come in at 7.5, but it dropped to -7.7 instead.

A gradual selloff ensued. The breadth of the selling effort took stocks through support levels of the two prior sessions and only eased when the S&P 500 came within reach of the August low that was set this past Monday.

Though technical support helped stocks stem their losses, pressure persisted into the close and stocks failed to squeeze higher in the final hour.

Widespread weakness stoked volatility, such that the Volatility Index spiked back above its 50-day moving average. The VIX was up about 7% at the close.

Heightened volatility coupled with the stock market's selloff sent participants into Treasuries. A preference for safety sent the yield on the 2-year Note to another new low - this time to almost 0.47%. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note hit a new 15-month low just under 2.56% and the yield on the 30-year Bond dropped to a 14-month low of 3.62%.

The dollar had started the session in the red as dour data and an improved GDP forecast from Germany's central bank initially led many to the euro. The currencies eventually reversed course so that the euro dropped to a 0.3% loss against the greenback and the Dollar Index settled with a 0.3% gain.

Consistent with the action of recent weeks, corporate news carried little sway with trade.

The latest round of earnings announcements featured a raft of retailers. Their numbers were generally mixed relative to expectations. As a group, shares of retailers gave up 1.5% this session.

Tech stocks, which collectively account for the heaviest sector by market weight, shed 1.3%. That was actually one of the least severe downturns of the day. The sector's story of the day came early, when Intel (INTC 18.90, -0.69) announced that it will acquire McAfee (MFE 47.01, +17.08) for $48 per share in cash, or a 60% premium over the prior session's closing price. News of the buyout spurred a bid for other software companies, which topped today's short list of advancers.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-2.4%), Materials (-2.2%), Industrials (-2.1%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.8%), Health Care (-1.7%), Energy (-1.5%), Telecom (-1.4%), Utilities (-1.4%), Tech (-1.3%), Consumer Staples (-1.1%)DJ30 -144.33 NASDAQ -36.75 NQ100 -1.5% R2K -2.7% SP400 -1.7% SP500 -18.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 500/2.10 bln/2134 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 551/1.07 bln/2452

3:30 pm : The CRB Commodity Index finished lower today, shedding 0.6%, weighed on by concerns about economy. Four out of the six groups closed to the downside today, lead lower by a 1.4% decline in energy.

Sept crude oil settled lower by 1.3% to $74.43 per barrel, marking its seventh losing session in eight tries. Weakness in the equity markets pulled crude oil lower today. Sept natural gas finished down 1.6% to $4.17 per MMBtu.

Dec gold closed higher by 0.2% to $1235.40 per ounce, while Sept silver finished lower by 0.5% to $18.33 per ounce. DJ30 -120.68 NASDAQ -27.65 SP500 -15.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 517/1.7 bln/2092 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 587/754.1 mln/2403

3:00 pm : Just an hour remains in the session and stocks have yet to show any sign that a late squeeze higher might be in the making. Instead, the stock market is just a few points above its session low.

This session's loss puts stocks down 2.4% for the month. If weakness lingers next week, stocks will likely log their third monthly loss in the past four months of trade. DJ30 -160.71 NASDAQ -36.19 SP500 -19.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 420/1.55 bln/2167 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 520/683 mln/2489

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 recently drifted lower to retest its session lows near the 1070 line, but support there remains steady. Stocks have since made a modest bounce back to afternoon highs, though that really isn't saying much.

Meanwhile, the greenback has made a move to its best level of the day. In turn, it currently sports a 0.4% gain against a basket of competing currencies.

The dollar's advance comes as volatility heats up, such that the Volatility Index, often euphemistically dubbed the "fear gauge," is up more than 8%. DJ30 -156.06 NASDAQ -35.59 SP500 -18.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 418/1.44 bln/2152 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 500/622 mln/2500

2:00 pm : The stock market continues to drift sideways. There hasn't been any source of leadership or positive support to help lift stocks out of their afternoon funk. Instead, the major equity averages remain only slightly above their session lows.

Fewer than 20 companies are scheduled to report their latest quarterly results after the close, but the short list includes retailers Gap (GPS 17.61, -0.37) and Aeropostale (ARO 23.49, +0.00), along with tech plays Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 40.54, -0.82) and Dell (DELL 12.01, -0.18). DJ30 -186.11 NASDAQ -41.96 SP500 -22.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 402/1.34 bln/2149 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 483/575 mln/2501

1:30 pm : Stocks are up a bit from their session lows, but they haven't done much to trim losses. Instead, they have spent the past hour confined to a tight trading range.

Share volume this session is very low, yet again. Specifically, only a bit more than a half billion shares have been traded on the NYSE this session. Volume on the NYSE has averaged less than 1 billion shares per session this month. DJ30 -159.28 NASDAQ -37.00 SP500 -19.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 431/1.25 bln/2102 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 499/532 mln/2477

1:05 pm : Disappointing data has hammered stocks this session, but technical support near August lows has helped stem losses.

A surprise increase in initial jobless claims to a half million for the first time since November and the worst Philadelphia Fed Index, -7.7, in a year completely overshadowed a 0.1% increase in the latest index of leading economic indicators. The dour data also spurred a selloff that sent the S&P 500 down more than 2%.

Though the stock market's slide slashed right through near-term support levels, the S&P 500 steadied when it came within a point of the August lows that were set this past Monday. Still, the tone among traders is decidedly negative as all 10 sectors in the broader market are down by more than 1% and half of them are down by more than 2%.

Corporate news has been of secondary interest as earnings have done nothing to excite. Announcements have revolved around a raft of reports from retailers, which served up some rather mixed results. As a group, retailers are down 1.3%.

Intel (INTC 18.95, -0.64) announced that it plans to acquire McAfee (MFE 47.04, +17.11) for $48 per share in cash. The purchase price represents a 60% premium to MFE's prior session closing price, but some analysts question whether the price is too rich.

Heightened volatility and sharp selling among stocks has sent many into Treasuries. In turn, the yield on the 2-year Note has fallen to almost 0.47%, which puts it at a new record low, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back at 2.57%, near 15-month lows, and the yield on the 30-year Bond is at 3.63%, its lowest level in 14 months.

The dollar has also attracted support. Despite losing ground to the euro as a result of disappointing U.S. data and an increased forecast for German GDP, the greenback has since made its way to a 0.2% gain. DJ30 -157.35 NASDAQ -37.67 SP500 -19.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 418/1.19 bln/2110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 477/505 mln/2489

12:30 pm : Stocks appear to have stabilized from their morning descent. Losses were stemmed as the S&P 500 came close to the August low of 1069 that it set earlier this week.

Meanwhile, the dollar has attracted support, such that it now trades at a fresh session high with a 0.3% gain against competing currencies. DJ30 -166.35 NASDAQ -38.65 SP500 -19.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 402/1.09 bln/2088 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 452/462 mln/2480

12:00 pm : Stocks are still on the slide, such that the S&P 500 recently came in contact with the 1070 line, which is just above the August low of 1069 that was set this past Monday. However, the benchmark index is still well above its summer low of about 1011.

Weakness has been widespread since the start of trade, but industrial stocks have been hit by some of the harshest selling in recent trade. In turn, the sector is down 2.6% at the moment. Despite such pronounced weakness, its shares are still up 4.0% year-to-date. That makes it the best performing sector of 2010.DJ30 -184.36 NASDAQ -44.08 SP500 -22.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 393/990 mln/2078 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 407/409 mln/2496

11:30 am : Stocks remain under sharp pressure. Losses are especially pronounced among small-caps, which are collectively down 2.0%, according to the Russell 2000. 1-800-Flowers (FLWS 2.07, -0.35) is among the worst performing small-cap plays. The company reported this morning a loss for its latest quarter. DJ30 -146.30 NASDAQ -32.71 SP500 -17.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 454/849 mln/1979 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 477/340 mln/2393

11:00 am : The Volatility Index is up 5.0% as stocks trade near session lows with sharp losses. The selloff comes in response to some negative data, namely a worse-than-expected weekly jobless claims count and the worst Philly Fed Index in one year.

Treasuries have ticked higher as a result of heightened volatility and selling. In turn, the yield on the 2-year Note has fallen below 0.48%, which puts it at a new record low, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back at 2.57%, near 15-month lows, and the yield on the 30-year Bond is at 3.63%, its lowest level in 14 months. DJ30 -158.94 NASDAQ -34.02 SP500 -18.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 427/740 mln/1970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 473/294 mln/2372

10:35 am : Commodities are mixed this morning. Crude is in the red, while natural gas and precious metals are higher.

September natural gas traded just under the unchanged line for the overnight and morning session. The energy component hit session lows of $4.21 per MMBtu just before the open of pit trading. However, it quickly rallied after hitting those lows and pushed into positive territory and new morning highs of $4.27 per MMBtu ahead of inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 27 bcf versus consensus, which called for a build of 31 bcf, natural gas spiked to new session highs of $4.38 per MMBtu and is now 1.9% higher at $4.32 per MMBtu.

Sept crude oil fell back into the red around 9:00am ET and rapidly fell at the top of the hour, giving up over $1 per barrel, hitting new session lows of $74.26 per barrel. Currently crude is 1.2% lower at $74.52 per barrel.

Dec gold and Sept silver began to trend higher earlier this morning from the unchanged line. Gold pushed to session highs of $1239.50 per ounce and is currently 0.6% higher at $1238.70 per ounce. Silver rose to new session highs of $18.59 per ounce earlier this morning and is currently 0.5% higher at $18.50 per ounce.DJ30 -143.12 NASDAQ -29.64 SP500 -15.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 440/563.5 mln/1894 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 474/218.7 mln/2305

10:05 am : Stocks recently steadied their morning slide near the 1085 line, which also provided support early in the prior session, but the technical line has since been breached with the release of some more disappointing data.

The Philadelphia Fed Index for August just hit newswires. It came in at a one-year low of -7.7, which contrasts sharply with the 7.5 reading that had been expected, on average, by a sample of economists polled by

Meanwhile, the Leading Economic Indicators Index for July increased a mere 0.1% when a 0.2% increase had been expected. DJ30 -133.73 NASDAQ -26.38 SP500 -15.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 439/365 mln/1818 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 488/140 mln/2237

09:45 am : Stocks are down modestly in the early going. The slide has been broad based, such that all 10 major sectors are in the red.

Health care stocks are in the worst shape. The sector has already shed 0.7%. Most of that is owed to a 1.1% decline in managed care names and a 1.0% loss among health care tech plays.

Meanwhile, materials stocks have limited their loss to 0.3% as steel stocks like U.S. Steel (X 50.95, +1.36) and AK Steel (AKS 14.38, +0.22) provide support. DJ30 -36.74 NASDAQ -6.34 SP500 -4.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 866/181 mln/1244 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 891/69 mln/1706

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.50. Stock futures have managed to make their way up from morning lows, but a disappointing weekly jobless claims count continues to weigh on the mood of premarket participants. The report's weakness has also imbued Europe's major bourses, which had been boosted by an improved economic outlook from Germany's central bank. The outlook also provided a lift to the euro, which has since extended its advance as the dollar declines in response to the dour dose of jobs data. Earnings haven't done anything to excite morning traders as a raft of retailers report some rather mixed results. In the latest merger and acquisition news, Intel (INTC) will pay cash to acquire McAfee (MFE) for $48 per share, a premium of about 60% to MFE's prior session closing price. Participants get the latest results from widely-held tech plays Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) after the close. Still to come this morning, the Philadelphia Fed Index for August and the Leading Economic Indicators Index for July are due at 10:00 AM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.50.

Futures for the S&P 500 have moved up from morning lows, which were set after a disappointing weekly jobless claims count. The dour data has also dragged down Europe's major bourses, which had actually overcome an early fit of selling to sport solid gains. As such, Germany's DAX now trades with a 0.5% loss after it had been up as much as 0.6% before the jobless claims tally hit newswires. The previous gains came in response to news that Germany's Bundesbank, its central bank, increased its GDP forecast for 2010 to 3.0% from 1.9%. France's CAC is currently down 0.6% after it was up 0.7% just a half hour ago. Its declining issues now outnumber its advancers by more than 2-to-1. Energy giant Total (TOT) is a key source of weakness. In Britain, the FTSE has fallen to a 0.5% loss after it had been up modestly earlier. Retail sales in the U.K. grew 0.9% month-over-month, while the country's budget deficit came in at only 3.2 billion pounds, which is below the near 5 billion pounds that had been expected.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei advanced 1.3% overnight. It was led by Tokyo Electron, Fanuc LTD, and Kyocera (KYO). Meanwhile, mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed a healthy 0.8% higher even though advancers had just a slight edge over declining issues. PetroChina (PTR) and China Petroleum (SNP) recovered from back-to-back losses to provide leadership. Industrial & Commercial Bank also rebounded. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 0.2% as China Shenhua and Sun Hung Kai Properties spiked. Energy plays were also strong. In contrast, heavyweight China Mobile was dogged; it acted as a drag on broader trade.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.80. Stock futures are under pressure following news that initial jobless claims for the week ended August 14 totaled 500,000, which is not only worse than the 475,000 claims that had been widely expected, but also the highest tally since November 2009. Week-over-week, initial claims climbed 12,000, while continuing claims came down 13,000 to 4.48 million.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.80. Stock futures have seen some whipsaw action since the close of the prior session. Though they appear to trade with moderate strength, their position is actually in-line with the prior session's closing levels. The paradox comes as a result of a sharp, unexplained drop by futures ahead of their close in after-hours trade. Currencies are also near the neutral line this morning, although the euro has improved its position since Germany's central bank provided an encouraging GDP forecast. The announcement also helped improve the tone of trade among Europe's major bourses. Those gains complement advances by Asia's major market averages. Earnings announcements haven't had much sway with early trade, but many anxiously await the latest from Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) this evening. Coming up, though, are weekly initial jobless claims at the bottom of the hour. The Philadelphia Fed Index for August and the Leading Economic Indicators Index for July are due at 10:00 AM ET.

06:52 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00.

06:52 am : Nikkei...9362.68...+122.10...+1.30%. Hang Seng...21072.46...+49.70...+0.20%.

06:52 am : FTSE...5316.08...+13.10...+0.30%. DAX...6219.68...+33.30...+0.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

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M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
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