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|August 11th Wednesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.10
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|Author:||wrbtrader [ Thu Aug 12, 2010 11:27 am ]|
|Post subject:||August 11th Wednesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.10|
Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from Youtube Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.
Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=77&t=594
Today's results are 8 wins : 6 losses (see above #FuturesTrades log). No personal commentary today about my trading of Emini TF of the general market itself. However, you can still read my trades and commentary that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room at the above link.
FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about any thing related to today's trading or related to your own trading.
In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).
WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm
Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm
Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=120&t=731
Trade Performance for Today: +10.10 points or $1,010 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.
The market summaries below are courtesy of Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance.
U.S. Stocks Join Global Slump on Concern About Recovery: Video
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks dropped the most in three weeks as equities retreated from Tokyo to Moscow and London amid speculation the Federal Reserve's stimulus plan indicates the economic recovery is in jeopardy.
Stocks Get A Beatdown On Global Concerns
By Julianne Pepitone, staff reporter
August 11, 2010: 5:45 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slid to close sharply lower Wednesday after a report showed the U.S. trade gap widened, and foreign data cast doubt on overseas demand for American goods.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) tumbled 265 points, or 2.5%, to close at 10,378.83. The Nasdaq (COMP) sank 69 points, or 3%, to end at 2,208.63, and the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 32 points, or 2.8%, to close at 1,089.47.
Earlier Wednesday, the government reported the trade deficit widened in June to $49.9 billion, much more than economists had expected.
Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics, called the trade figures "spectacularly terrible."
Meanwhile, the Bank of England lowered its forecast for U.K. economic growth, and said inflation is likely to be below the 2% target in 2012.
A raft of data from China reflected a dour July -- inflation rates missed expectations, industrial production eased to the lowest level this year and retail sales slowed.
The global bad news unnerved investors, with the CBOE volatility index (VIX) -- known as the VIX -- jumping 13% to 25.29.
"We're seeing a reaction to major economic powerhouses showing signs of lower economic activity, and that's raising the fear factor on the global recovery," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.
Stocks fell Tuesday after the Federal Reserve issued a cautious outlook about the recovery.
World markets: European markets tumbled, with Britain's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX all closing more than 2% lower.
In Asia, Japan's benchmark Nikkei plunged 2.7% after some disappointing manufacturing data. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.8%, while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5%.
* What the Fed didn't say: Video
Companies: After the closing bell, tech bellwether Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) posted a 79% jump in fiscal fourth-quarter profit, but revenue missed expectations.
The network equipment maker posted net income of $1.9 billion, or 33 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters were expecting 42 cents a share. Cisco shares fell almost 5.5% in after-hours trading.
A federal judge ordered Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) to pay more than $200 million in restitution to California customers for manipulating and multiplying overdraft fees. The 90-page ruling said "a bookkeeping device" allowed the bank to multiply the number of fees it could collect from a single mistake.
AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) said it will sell most of its consumer finance unit to investment manager Fortress (FIG). Further terms weren't disclosed, but it should allow AIG to raise cash as it seeks to pay down its obligations to taxpayers stemming from its 2008 bailout. AIG shares dropped to close 5.9% lower.
Shares of Macy's (M, Fortune 500) rallied to close almost 6% higher Wednesday after the department store chain posted a quarterly profit that beat estimates and boosted its earnings forecast for the year.
Toyota (TM) said an investigation has so far found no problems with its cars beyond those the company has already recalled. Researchers for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration looked into 58 crashes of Toyota cars and have not found any further safety defects but shares ended 2.8% lower.
Economy: The National Association of Realtors released a report showing the median price of a single-family home in the second quarter rose 1.5% over the year to $176,900.
According to the Office of Management and Budget, the nation had a $165.04 billion budget deficit in July. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected the Treasury budget to have a $180.7 billion deficit.
Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained against the euro and U.K. pound, but touched a 15-year low versus the Japanese yen.
Oil futures for September delivery fell $1.76 to settle at $78.49 a barrel.
Bonds: Prices for Treasurys were higher, moving the corresponding yields lower. The yield on the 10-year note fell to 2.7% from 2.77% late Tuesday. Investors submitted bids of almost $73 billion for the government's sale of $24 billion worth of 10-year notes.
4:30 pm : A loss of confidence in the economic recovery led to a deep, broad-based selloff that sent stocks reeling. Though the broader market suffered its worst loss of the past few weeks, it was able to secure support just above a key technical line.
Market participants turned pessimistic after China reported some weaker-than-expected retail sales figures and a slight dip in industrial production during July. Japan's lackluster machinery orders report and moderate economic outlook didn't help.
The Bank of England also failed to counter waning confidence in a steady global recovery with its statement that risks to growth are still to the downside.
Those announcements come after the Fed stated again yesterday that the economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term.
Coupling the underwhelming announcements with the stock market's inability to build on the gains of recent weeks, investors took the opportunity to rotate out of stocks. The selling effort was largely indiscriminate as 495 of the 500 members of the S&P 500 fell to a loss - Macy's (M 20.52, +1.14) was one of the few to stage a gain after it reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and raised its outlook.
Such widespread weakness caused the S&P 500 to slice through its 200-day simple average, but it held steady just above its 50-day average of 1088.
Treasuries ticked higher as participants sought safety. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note dropped to a 14-month low and ended the day around 2.68%.
Treasuries showed a muted response to results from a $24 billion auction of 10-year Notes. Dollar demand for the auction was a solid $73 billion, up from the prior auction and above recent averages, but the bid-to-cover came in at 3.0, which is below the prior auction and recent averages. The yield on the auction came in at 2.73%.
The dollar also found favor among investors. After the close the Dollar Index continued to sport a 1.9% gain, its best performance of the past year. Most of that move came against the euro, which plummeted 2.4%. In contrast, the yen set a fresh 15-year high versus the dollar early this morning, but it eased back above the widely watched level of 85 yen per dollar in afternoon trade. DJ30 -265.42 NASDAQ -68.54 NQ100 -2.8% R2K -4.0% SP400 -3.4% SP500 -31.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 283/2.26 bln/2348 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 442/1.16 bln/2622
3:30 pm : Oil prices plummeted 2.8% to close pit trade just above $78 per barrel, and also just above the commodity's 200-day simple moving average as concerns about economic growth came into play.
Natural gas showed strength, though. The commodity was able to advance 0.7% to $4.33 per MMBtu.
Precious metals prices diverged as gold prices climbed as high as $1208 per ounce before pulling back to $1199.70 per ounce, where they settled with a fractional gain, and silver prices sank 1.3% to $17.82 per ounce. DJ30 -252.55 NASDAQ -66.70 SP500 -30.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 274/1.81 bln/2331 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 423/775 mln/2616
3:00 pm : Both the Dow and S&P 500 recently slipped a few points to fresh session lows. The move puts the Dow even deeper beneath its 200-day moving average, but not quite near its 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is now in touch with its 50-day moving average after it violated its 200-day moving average with ease earlier today.
As for the Nasdaq Composite, it has breached both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. The Nasdaq 100 has done the same -- Seagate Tech (STX 11.11, +0.01) is the only component in the Nasdaq 100 currently trading with a gain and it is only up by one penny.
Trading volume is up a bit from the prior session, but overall participation remains unimpressive. DJ30 -263.18 NASDAQ -68.68 SP500 -30.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 276/1.65 bln/2328 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 400/690 mln/2628
2:30 pm : Telecom (-1.3%), consumer staples (-1.4%), and utilities (-1.6%) are the only major sectors that have managed to limit their losses to less than 2%. The defensive-oriented trio were also relative outperformers in the prior session.
In contrast, cyclical plays are under some of the most pressure this session. Specifically, industrial stocks are down 3.5%, materials are down 3.2%, and financials are down 3.0%. DJ30 -226.89 NASDAQ -62.85 SP500 -27.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 277/1.51 bln/2309 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 404/618 mln/2616
2:00 pm : The stock market continue to crawl along session lows, which remain just above key support levels around 1088.
The July Treasury budget was just released. It showed a $165.0 billion deficit, which is slightly narrower than the $169.0 billion deficit that had been widely anticipated. DJ30 -237.11 NASDAQ -67.62 SP500 -1091.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 260/1.40 bln/2326 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 369/568 mln/2633
1:30 pm : Treasuries remain strong in the wake of a $24 billion auction of 10-year Notes. The results, which were released at 1:00 PM ET, showed that dollar demand was a solid $73 billion, up from the prior auction and above recent averages. The bid-to-cover came in at 3.0, but that is below the prior auction and recent averages. The yield on the auction came in at 2.73%, which is a bit below what had been anticipanted. At the moment, the 10-year Note is up 17 ticks and its yield is fractionally below 2.70% and near 14-month lows.
The 30-year Bond has been an even better performer today. It is currently up more than a full point. In turn, its yield is down to 3.94%, but that is still above its summer low of 3.83%. DJ30 -227.05 NASDAQ -64.91 SP500 -28.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 266/1.30 bln/2302 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 365/522 mln/2625
1:00 pm : Rekindled concerns about economic growth in the wake of the stock market's inability to build on recent gains have sellers out in full force. In turn, stocks are on pace for their poorest performance of the month.
The S&P 500 had climbed almost 12% from the beginning of July to the start of August, but the benchmark index struggled to push past the 1128 zone in recent days. That resistance set the stage for the concerted selling that has controlled stocks for the past couple of sessions.
Today's selloff follows another dose of disappointing data from China, along with lackluster machinery orders and moderate recovery expectations in Japan. Japan's Nikkei dove 2.7% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng surrendered 0.8%. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite managed to make a 0.5% gain on a relief bid that followed its 2.9% drop in the prior session.
The Bank of England also dampened the mood among participants with its statement that downside risks to growth persist. Europe's major bourses all booked losses in excess of 2%.
U.S. market's aren't in any better shape. The Dow has been dropped more than 2% so that it is back below its 200-day simple moving average. The Nasdaq is down nearly 3% to trade below both its 200-day and 50-day simple average. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has fallen roughly 2.5% to push through its 200-day simple average and test its 50-day average.
Such severe weakness has stoked volatility, such that the Volatility Index is up 15% at the moment.
Steep losses and heightened volatility have prompted many participants to pursue safety. In turn, the U.S. dollar has surged to a 1.7% gain, which is its best single-session percentage advance of 2010. Most of the move comes at the expense of the euro and the British pound.
In contrast, the yen set a fresh 15-year high versus the dollar early this morning. It has since eased back above the widely watched level of 85 yen per dollar.
Treasuries have also found favor. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is down around 2.70% for the first time in 14 months. Due at any minute are results from a Treasury auction of 10-year Notes. DJ30 -230.75 NASDAQ -66.94 SP500 -29.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 257/1.21 bln/2291 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 361/485 mln/2623
12:30 pm : The stock market is trending sideways in a tight trading range along session lows. Such steady losses have stoked volatility, such that the Volatility Index is up 14% to its highest level of the month.
Though stocks remain near session lows and volatility is high, Treasuries have eased back from their session highs. Specifically, the benchmark 10-year Note is up about a dozen ticks after it was up around 20 ticks this morning. Still, its yield remains near 2.7%. Coming up at the top of the hour are results from a Treasury auction of 10-year Notes. DJ30 -224.62 NASDAQ -65.92 SP500 -28.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 256/1.10 bln/2282 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 352/437 mln/2617
12:00 pm : Stocks appear to have steadied, for now at least. The break in downside action came as the S&P 500 came within just a few points of the key 1088 to 1086 support zone.
Gold has given back almost all of its gains. The yellow metal was up above $1205 per ounce earlier this morning, but it is now up just fractionally at $1197 per ounce.
Silver prices have succumbed to a much stiffer selling effort. The precious meatal is now down 1.6% to $17.87 per ounce. DJ30 -220.84 NASDAQ -63.62 SP500 -27.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 259/993 mln/2250 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 346/393 mln/2611
11:30 am : Stocks are sinking, such that the Nasdaq Composite is now down 3.0%. That marks its worst single-session slide by percent since a 3.1% drop almost one month ago.
Semiconductor stocks have been a heavy drag on the tech-rich Nasdaq. As a group, shares of semiconductor and semiconductor equipment companies are down 4.4% in their worst selloff since late June. Cree (CREE 60.17, -8.88) is among the hardes hit names in the space following its underwhelming revenue outlook, which has completely overshadowed news of better-than-expected bottom line results for the latest quarter. DJ30 -23318 NASDAQ -67.13 SP500 -28.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 231/860 mln/2228 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 303/340 mln/2618
11:00 am : Selling pressure has slowly intensified so that stocks are now down to fresh session lows. The move has put the Dow fractionally below its 200-day simple moving average and the Nasdaq well below its 50-day simple moving average. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is between its 200-day simple moving average and its 50-day moving average.
The dollar continues to appreciate against competing currencies. It is now up 1.6% in its strongest single-session percentage gain since December. DJ30 -224.17 NASDAQ -63.87 SP500 -27.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 239/712 mln/2186 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 318/275 mln/2581
10:35 am : The US Dollar is trading higher again this morning and currently near session highs of 81.952.
Sept crude oil moved into the red overnight and has been in a rather steady downtrend since. Crude hit new session lows of $78.65 per barrel ahead of today's oil inventory data. Following the data, which showed a draw of 2988K versus consensus of a draw of 2000K, crude showed little reaction and is currently 2.2% lower at $78.48 per barrel.
Sept natural gas was chopping around the unchanged line in recent trade. After spiking in recent trade to new session highs of $4.38 per MMBtu, natural gas is 0.3% higher at $4.31 per MMBtu.
December gold is currently 0.8% higher at $1207.40 per ounce, while Sept silver is 0.5% lower at $18.08 per ounce.DJ30 -192.99 NASDAQ -53.69 SP500 -23.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 267/551.7 mln/2116 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 299/215.5 mln/2547
10:00 am : The dollar's role as a safe haven from economic uncertainty has sent it 1.2% higher this session. That's its best percentage move in two months and enough to put the greenback at a one week high.
An interest in the safety of gold has trumped concerns about implications of a stronger dollar on precious metals prices. Futures contracts for gold currently price the yellow metal at $1202.50 per ounce, up 0.5%.
Despite the relative strength of gold prices, market participants are dumping shares of diversified metals and miners, which are currently down more than 4%, collectively. That has undermined the materials sector, which has plummeted to a 2.4% loss.
Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Industrials (-2.5%), Materials (-2.4%), Energy (-2.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-2.2%), Tech (-2.1%), Financials (-2.0%), Health Care (-1.6%), Utilities (-1.5%), Telecom (-1.4%), Consumer Staples (-1.3%)DJ30 -192.25 NASDAQ -51.64 SP500 -22.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 220/340 mln/2075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 269/142 mln/2571
09:45 am : A wave of selling has sent stocks reeling at the open. The effort has been so severe that each of the three major indices is down around 2%.
None of the major sectors have gone unscathed by the selloff; all 10 are down with losses of at least 1% and half of them are down more than 2%.
With concerns about growth in mind, many participants have sought safety. That has given gold prices a 0.6% lift to $1203 per ounce, and Treasuries such strength that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now below 2.70% for the first time in 14 months. DJ30 -205.48 NASDAQ -55.76 SP500 -21.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 180/201 mln/2043 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 234/96 mln/2478
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -17.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -31.30. Stocks look like they're headed for an opening loss of approximately 1.5%. The negative tone is the result of renewed concerns about economic growth after China reported its second straight dose of disappointing data, Japan posted some lackluster numbers of its own amid comments from the country's central bank that the economy is making a moderate recovery, and the Bank of England stated in its quarterly report that risks to growth are still weighted to the downside.
With the latter remark in mind, the British pound has dropped 1.1% against the dollar. The euro is in even worse shape as it grapples with a 1.6% loss against the greenback. In contrast, the yen set a fresh 15-year high versus the dollar and is currently a bit below the widely watched level of 85 yen per dollar.
Treasuries continue to climb, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note hit a new annual low of 2.70% earlier this morning. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes are scheduled for release at 1:00 PM ET.
The pace of earnings announcements has slowed since the rush of reports that had hit newswires in previous weeks. Disney (DIS) and Macy's (M) are among the more widely held names to present since the prior session's close - both bested expectations for the bottom line.
09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -16.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -31.00. S&P 500 futures are at new morning lows. Meanwhile, the EuroStoxx 50 is down 1.8% and down 1.1% week-to-date. Its decline comes as a result of renewed weakness among Europe's major bourses, like Germany's DAX, which is down 1.7% at the moment. Its losses are both deep and broad, but industrials are under the most pressure as they grapple with a 2.5% loss. In France, the CAC is down 1.8%. Tech stocks and financial plays, two pivotal economic sectors, are down 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively. There isn't one name in the 40-member index that has managed to muster a gain. Britain's FTSE has fallen to a 1.6% loss. Tech stocks, down 2.6%, are also its weakest plays. Adding to weakness among the bourses, the Bank of England has kept its inflation target at 2%, but stated in its quarterly report that risks to growth remain weighted to the downside. Britain's Expectations Index also dropped markedly in July to its lowest level since February.
In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite managed to put together a 0.5% gain in the face of disappointing retail sales data and in-line industrial production numbers. The advance came after the index had dropped almost 3% in the prior session. Industrial & Commercial Bank, Bank of China, and China Pacific provided leadership. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.8% as tech stocks dove 3.8%. Industrials offset part of that loss and broader market weakness with a 1.7% advance. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan said in its monthly report that its economy shows further signs of a moderate recovery. Coupling that with news of weaker-than-expected machine orders for June dampened expectations for the country's second quarter GDP reading on Friday and left the Nikkei to drop 2.7%. Losses were broad, but weakness among exporters was exacerbated by the yen's overnight climb. The yen actually hit a 15-year high of 84.73 yen per dollar. The yen is currently at 84.97 yen per dollar.
08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.80. Stock futures are still under heavy pressure. They showed no real reaction to news that the trade balance for June ballooned to $49.9 billion after a $42.0 billion trade deficit for the prior month. The deficit for June marks the greatest net difference between imports and exports since October 2008.
08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.80. Stock futures are down sharply this morning. The negative tone follows the second straight dose of disappointing data from China and Japan's weaker-than-expected June machine orders tally, which has dampened the mood among the country's market participants ahead of the country's second quarter GDP reading on Friday. Japan's Nikkei dove 2.7% as weakness among exporters was exacerbated by the yen's climb to a 15-year high of 84.73 yen per dollar. The yen is currently at 84.97 yen per dollar. In contrast, the greenback has shown strength against the euro, such that the euro has fallen 1.2% versus the dollar this morning. Europe's major bourses are all currently down more than 1.5%. Earnings and other corporate announcements generally remain of secondary concern.
07:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.80.
07:38 am : Nikkei...9292.85...-258.20...-2.70%. Hang Seng...21294.54...-179.00...-0.80%.
07:38 am : FTSE...5298.45...-78.00...-1.50%. DAX...6186.35...-99.90...-1.60%.
Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
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