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 Post subject: August 6th Friday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.30
PostPosted: Sat Aug 07, 2010 9:29 am 
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The market summaries below are courtesy of Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance.

U.S. Stocks Fall on Weaker-Than-Estimated Jobs Growth: Video
Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Gigi Stone reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks tumbled, paring a weekly advance for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, after weaker-than-forecast growth in company payrolls suggested a rebound in corporate profits may stall.

Stocks End Lower As Job Concerns Weigh
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By Ben Rooney, staff reporter
August 6, 2010: 5:00 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks closed lower Friday as concerns about unemployment continued to weigh on the market, although all three major gauges ended the week with gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 21 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index slid 4 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) composite lost 4 points, or 0.4%.

Stocks opened lower after a government report showed the tepid pace of hiring in the private sector failed to offset the loss of thousands of public sector jobs in July. The selling gained momentum as stocks fell through key technical levels, with the Dow shedding 160 points in the morning. But the market recovered late in the day to close near session highs.

All three indexes ended the week higher. The Dow and the S&P both rose 1.8% over the last five days, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.

The dour jobs data added to concerns about the economic recovery, which is turning out to be less robust than many analysts had anticipated. In particular, investors are worried that consumer spending, the main engine powering the U.S. economy, will suffer as unemployment remains high.

"We are still seeing jobs growth but at a much slower pace than expected," said Ryan Larson, head of U.S. equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management. "It's going to be hard to support earnings going forward without jobs growth."

Better-than-expected corporate earnings helped boost the Dow 7% in July, which was the best month for stocks in a year. But the cloudy outlook for the U.S. economy has weighed on the market so far in August, which is historically a bad month for Wall Street.

Friday's jobs report raised speculation that the government may take additional steps to shore up the recovery as previous economic stimulus measures fade.

"Traders may be thinking that this will spur the Fed into action," said said Quincy Krosby, financial market strategist with Prudential Financial.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to make a policy announcement next week and the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady. But some analysts say the Fed could signal more aggressive plans to support the economy, such as resuming its various asset purchase programs.

Meanwhile, investors flocked on Friday to less risky assets such as U.S. Treasurys and gold futures. The U.S. dollar slumped in the currency market, and oil prices tumbled.

Stocks closed moderately lower Thursday as investors avoided big moves ahead of Friday's payrolls report.

* Labor secretary sees job growth: Video

Jobs: The Labor Department reported that the economy lost 131,000 jobs last month, as the government shed 143,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census. Economists polled by Briefing.com were expecting 87,000 job losses during the month.

The report showed that private sector added 71,000 jobs, less than the 83,000 gain economists were looking for.

"The direction for the private sector is positive, but the gain is not robust enough at this point in the recovery," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, adding that private employers need to be adding 125,000 jobs each month for the economy to be considered healthy.

* Jobs must lead, not lag, the recovery

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5%. It was forecast to rise to 9.6%.

Investors were also disappointed by the revision to the losses in June. The report showed that the economy lost 221,000 jobs in June, far more than the 125,000 the government previously reported.

Companies: Fannie Mae said it lost $1.2 billion in the second quarter, down significantly from an $11.5 billion loss in the prior quarter. The government-run mortgage finance company said that its financial condition has vastly improved over previous quarters, but it still requested more government assistance.

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) reported a quarterly net loss of $2.7 billion due to the sales of some of its divisions, a continuation of its restructuring following its disastrous losses. But its income from continuing operations more than doubled. Shares of the insurer rose 2.6%.

World markets: Shares in Europe ended lower. France's CAC lost 1.3%, while Germany's DAX slid 1.2%. Britain's FTSE 100 closed 0.6% lower.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite jumped 1.4% and the Hang Seng rose 0.6%, but Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.1%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

* Dollar near bear market territory

U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell $1.16 to settle at $80.85 a barrel.

COMEX gold's December contract rose $8.50 to $1,207.60 per ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices turned higher Friday. The 10-year note's yield fell to 2.86% from 2.91% late Thursday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The two-year note's yield dropped below 0.5% for the first time ever Friday, but then pared back some of those losses to trade at 0.52% later in the day.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The week of August 6 began with plenty of promise, but disappointment over the July jobs led to a lackluster finish.

The stock market started the week with a 2.2% surge that saw it close above its 200-day moving average for the first time since June. Participants were encouraged by the latest ISM Manufacturing Index, which pulled back for the third straight month to hit 55.5 for July, but still exceeded the 54.2 that had been widely expected.

Midweek action was much more muddled. Participants digested a better-than-expected July ISM Service Index of 54.3, a worse-than-forecast 1.2% drop in June factory orders, a surprise decline in June pending home sales, and flat personal income and spending figures for June.

Some took hope that the job market was seeing improvement since the latest ADP Employment Change stated that private payrolls for July increased by 42,000 when only 25,000 additions had been expected. However, news that initial jobless claims for the week ended July 31 climbed more than expected to a three-month high of 479,000 weighed on sentiment.

Trade on Friday was mostly dictated by the government's official monthly jobs report, which showed that 131,000 nonfarm payrolls were slashed in July. A sample of economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, a more moderate decline of 87,000 jobs. Combining the worse-than-expected July jobs report and the downward revision to June data, nonfarm payrolls had their worst pair of payrolls reports in eight months.

Despite that development, the headline unemployment rate stayed at 9.5%, but that is because the labor force continues to shrink as discouraged job seekers suspend their efforts.

The dour data at the end of the week turned many participants into sellers, such that stocks were down as much as 1.6% Friday. That took the S&P 500 back below its 200-day moving average and encouraged a flight to safety the drove the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note as low as 2.81%, which is almost a 16-month low. A late rebound helped stocks move back above the 200-day average and book a less feeble finish.

Though the unemployment report removed an element of uncertainty from trade, it didn't pull any players off of the sidelines. Plenty of retail investors remain cautious about returning to the stock market due to concerns about weakening economic conditions and the prospect of further market corrections. In turn, trading volume remains depressed. Share volume on the NYSE didn't even break 1 billion Friday and it averaged just 960 million this week. Prior to this week, the 50-day moving average on the Big Board stood at 1.3 billion shares.

Corporate earnings continued to come in above expectations, but their influence over broader trade remained negligible. Among the more widely held names to report this past week, Dow components Pfizer (PFE 16.24, +0.05) and Kraft (KFT 30.36, +0.70) exceeded earnings expectations, while MasterCard (MA 207.42, +5.79) had an upside surprise of its own. Consumer staples giant and Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG 60.02, +0.16) stood out for being one of the few notable names that missed Wall Street's consensus earnings estimate.

European banks BNP Paribas and HSBC (HBC 53.08, -0.25) both reported strong earnings this week, while embattled energy giant BP (BP 41.33, +0.65) made progress toward permanently capping its leaking oil well in the Gulf.

Retailers reported same-store sales figures for July. The results were generally mixed, but retailers still finished the week 2.4% higher, collectively.

A 1.5% drop during the course of the past five sessions gave the greenback its ninth consecutive weekly loss. Such weakness has the dollar down 10% since its June high and at its lowest level in almost four months. The dollar's decline has come amid concerns about a weakening U.S. economy. Conversely, there has been a surge in the yen to a near 15-year high and a bounce by the euro to its best level in three months. DJ30 -21.42 NASDAQ -4.59 NQ100 -0.1% R2K -0.7% SP400 -0.2% SP500 -4.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1058/1.88 bln/1530 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1384/949 mln/1604

3:30 pm : Commodities sold off just over 1.0% this session following the disappointing jobs number.

Losses were led by the energy complex. September natural gas closed 3.0% lower at $4.46 per MMBtu; it shed nearly 10% on the week. September crude oil futures shed 1.6%, but were able to stay above the $80 level. They closed at $80.70 per barrel.

Precious metals benefitted from a weaker dollar and a flight to safety. December gold rose 0.5% to $1205.00 per ounce. September silver closed 0.7% higher at $18.444 per ounce.

December Wheat futures closed limit down ($0.60 -- 7% in this case) at $7.5525. This moves follows a roughly 70% surge in what prices since July 1.DJ30 -51.24 NASDAQ -9.95 SP500 -6.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 888/1.55 bln/1673 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1206/697 mln/1776

3:00 pm : Stocks have started to gap higher as they enter the final hour of trade. The move comes after more than three hours of sideways trade and without any clear catalyst or news item. Nonetheless, stocks have almost halved their losses and are back near the levels where they started the session. DJ30 -63.12 NASDAQ -13.52 SP500 -8.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 803/1.44 bln/1757 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1107/637 mln/1875

2:30 pm : This morning's disappointing jobs report has certainly turned participants into sellers, but it hasn't brought in any additional players from the sidelines. Some pundits suggest that retail investors remain cautious about getting back into the stock market since data has left many unconvinced that economic conditions have turned from tenuous to stable and that the stock market is less prone to further corrections. In turn, trading volume remains depressed. DJ30 -121.92 NASDAQ -26.79 SP500 -14.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 646/1.29 bln/1919 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 879/559 mln/2090

2:00 pm : The stock market is range bound near its session low. In fact, it has been stuck in a three-point range for almost three hours.

Energy stocks have come under increased pressure, though. The sector is now down 2.5% to a fresh session low. Its loss comes from a confluence of broader market weakness and a 2.2% drop in oil prices to $80.20 per barrel. DJ30 -139.03 NASDAQ -29.14 SP500 -16.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 633/1.20 bln/1918 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 837/515 mln/2123

1:30 pm : The stock market is hugging the 1110 line as it drifts along just above session lows.

Energy prices have come under increased pressure. Specifically, oil prices are down 2.3% to $80.10 per barrel and natural gas prices are now down 2.3% to $4.50 per MMBtu. DJ30 -139.62 NASDAQ -28.97 SP500 -15.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 605/1.12 bln/1944 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 819/475 mln/2115

1:00 pm : More than 90% of the S&P 500 is in the red after the July jobs report proved worse than expected.

The tone of trade has been weak all session. Sellers were prompted by news that nonfarm payrolls for July fell by a steeper-than-expected 131,000 jobs. It hasn't helped that the prior month's jobs data was revised lower to reflect a drop of 221,000 nonfarm payrolls. Those declines combine for the worst pair of payrolls reports since 449,000 nonfarm payrolls were slashed during September and October.

Despite such an ominous development, the headline unemployment rate surprised some by going unchanged at 9.5%. However, that is only because the labor force continues to shrink as discouraged job seekers end their efforts.

The dour data has dropped all 10 major sectors into the red. Half of them have shed at least 1%. The breadth and steepness of those losses has the S&P 500 back below its 200-day moving average.

Though commonly regarded as a safety play, the dollar is down 0.5% after it eased up from its lowest level since April. The dollar's decline comes as investors speculate that any interest rate increases by the Fed will have to be put on hold so as to ensure that economic recovery can remain on track and promote an improved job market.

Treasuries have found favor, though. That has sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note to its lowest level in about 15 months.

Gold has also garnered support, though the precious metal has pulled back since its session high of $1211 per ounce earlier this morning. Gold was last quoted at $1205 per ounce, up 0.6%.

Earnings continue to have little sway with participants. Dow component Kraft (KFT 30.29, +0.63) and former Dow member AIG (AIG 40.89, +0.98) were both among the latest to announce - both bested expectations for the bottom line. DJ30 -143.48 NASDAQ -29.24 SP500 -15.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 611/1.05 bln/1912 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 824/436 mln/2104

12:30 pm : Stocks have started to drift back toward their session lows as a pessimistic tone continues to permeate trade.

While broader market weakness has taken its toll on more than 90% of the names in the S&P 500, Harman International (HAR 29.46, -4.34), Autodesk (ADSK 28.15, -2.15), and Jabil Circuit (JBL 13.35, -0.88) are this session's three worst performers by percent lost. DJ30 -148.47 NASDAQ 32.23 SP500 16.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 572/980 mln/1936 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 801/400 mln/2122

12:00 pm : Stocks are off of their lows, but losses remain deep and broad based, such that more than 90% of all stocks in the S&P 500 are in the red and half of the major sectors are down by 1% or more.

Energy stocks and financial issues are currently in the worst shape. Both sectors are down 1.9%. Between the 119 components that make up the two sectors, only Massey Energy (MEE 33.41, +0.96), SLM Corp. (SLM 11.81, +0.06), and AIG (AIG 40.47, +0.57) are the only names that have managed to advance.

Such weakness has fueled volatility. In turn, the Volatility Index is up almost 6%. That makes for its biggest bounce in two weeks. The Volatility Index is up almost 8% year-to-date. DJ30 -129.72 NASDAQ -26.77 SP500 -15.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 597/875 mln/1876 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 811/368 mln/2088

11:30 am : Stocks remain under stiff pressure. That has given a strong, steady lift to Treasuries, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has moved closer to 2.80%. The yield hasn't been that low in more than 15 months. DJ30 -134.56 NASDAQ -31.34 SP500 -15.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 538/785 mln/1918 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 736/328 mln/2142

11:00 am : Stocks recently rolled over after they had failed to sustain a move that took the major averages up from their opening lows. The downturn has taken the S&P 500 back below its 200-day moving average.

The latest leg down does not come in response to any particular news item. Rather, it is largely the result of the stock market's failure to overcome the negative bias that has been underpinned by a disappointing July jobs report, which was released ahead of the open. DJ30 -134.26 NASDAQ -35.86 SP500 -16.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 487/640 mln/1926 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 678/265 mln/2165

10:30 am : The commodities space is a bit mixed this morning. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.3%.

Oil has been a primary drag on the CRB. Prices for contracts of crude oil were last quoted at $81.80 per barrel, down 0.3%.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices are essentially flat at $4.60 per MMBtu.

Gold prices have garnered support in the wake of this morning's disappointing jobs report. The yellow metal was last priced at $1211 per ounce, up 1.2%.

Silver prices are also up 1.2%, recently quoted at $18.55 per ounce.

Wheat prices continue to climb amid supply concerns. Prices were last quoted 1.2% higher at $8.25 per bushel. DJ30 -45.71 NASDAQ -10.55 SP500 -5.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 790/425 mln/1513 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1050/175 mln/1688

10:00 am : Stocks have trimmed some of their losses, but the major equity averages remain in the red.

Materials stocks continue to show relative strength, but the sector has actually surrendered some of its early gain. It is now up a tame 0.2%.

Health care stocks have cracked into higher ground. The sector is now up 0.1%. It is currently led by managed care providers (+0.5%) and life science tools stocks (+1.1%). DJ30 -29.97 NASDAQ -3.57 SP500 -4.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 957/273 mln/1272 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1169/115 mln/1523

09:45 am : Stocks are off to a weak start, such that nine of the 10 major sectors are in negative territory.

Only materials stocks, up a collective 0.5%, have attracted any real support. The sector's advance comes as the likes of Mosaic (MOS 52.40, +1.11) and Potash (POT 115.85, +1.61) spike in response to rising wheat prices, which were last quoted at $8.25 per bushel, up 1.2% for the session and up approximately 20% for the week.

Precious metals plays are also strong this morning. Newmont (NEM 57.53, +0.82) and Barrick Gold (ABX 43.50, +0.77) are up sharply as gold prices climb 0.8% to $1207 per ounce and silver prices spike 1.1% to $18.52 per ounce as investors seek safety following a disappointing jobs report. DJ30 -33.15 NASDAQ -8.72 SP500 -4.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 700/172 mln/1425 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 912/82 mln/1719

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.00. Disappointment over a worse-than-expected July jobs report has stocks positioned for a negative start that will cut into what had been a weekly gain of more than 2%. The data has also dropped the dollar to a 0.5% loss after it had been up fractionally just one hour ago; the greenback is now at its worst level since April. Meanwhile, buyers have rotated into Treasuries, so much that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is down to 2.85%, which marks its lowest level since April 2009. The action that has followed the release of the jobs report has completely overshadowed earnings, which included better-than-expected bottom line results from AIG (AIG) and Kraft (KFT).

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.80.

A disappointing jobs report for July has kept futures for the S&P 500 under stiff pressure. The report has also undercut Europe's major bourses so that Germany's DAX has reversed to a 0.5% loss. Of its major sectors, only health care (+0.4%) is in positive territory, while utilities (-1.1%) and tech stocks (-0.8%) are in the worst shape. France's CAC has fallen to 0.7% loss. Shares of utilities (-1.1%) are also weak there, but consumer goods stocks (-1.3%) and health care shares (-1.3%) are in the worst shape. Financial plays Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, and Credit Agricole have provided some support, however. In Britain, the FTSE is now down 0.3%. Shares of consumer goods plays (-1.7%) are sharply weaker, but telecom stocks (0.7%) have shown resilience. Despite strong earnings from Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), banks are split as Standard Chartered climbs and HSBC (HBC) and Lloyds Group (LYG) decline. BP Plc (BP) has also attracted support after the company reported that it has completed the cementing of its leaking oil well in the Gulf. As for the British pound, the currency is now up 0.2% after it had been down fractionally earlier this morning. Much the same, the euro has climbed from a slight loss to a 0.6% gain against the greenback.

In Asia, the China Banking Regulatory Committee stated that stress tests will not be done on banks, but only risk control measures will be taken. The statement contrasts recent rumors. China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.4%. It was led by PetroChina (PTR) and China Petroleum (SNP). The yuan logged its strongest close against the dollar since the mid-June revaluation. Meanwhile, Japan's yen recently climbed in the wake of the dour employment report from the U.S. That puts the yen even closer to the multiyear highs that it recorded in November. Japan's Nikkei closed 0.1% lower amid weakness in telecom (-0.7%) and health care (-0.7%). Financials (+1.1%) offered a counterbalance, though. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced 0.6% amid strength in industrial issues (+2.9%). Tech stocks (-0.1%) and materials plays (-0.1%) lagged.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.80. Stock futures have dropped in response to the latest official payrolls figures. Nonfarm payrolls for July fell 131,000, which is far worse than the decline of 87,000 that had been expected, on average, by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com. That makes for a disappointing follow up to the prior month's downwardly revised decline of 221,000 nonfarm payrolls. Despite the larger-than-expected decline for July and the downward revision to June data, the unemployment rate remained at 9.5% when it had been expected to rise to 9.6%. The lower unemployment rate is most likely the result of discouraged job seekers exiting the labor force.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.80. Stock futures are flat ahead of the official nonfarm payrolls figures for July. On average, a drop of 87,000 payrolls has been forecast by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com. The actual numbers will be released at the bottom of the hour and are expected to act as a key trading cue for the session. The dollar is also little changed as the euro and pound slip modestly. Trade in Europe is generally solid with the continent's major bourses sporting healthy gains. Asia had a mixed finish as Japan's Nikkei slipped to a slight loss, but China's Shanghai Composite closed with a 1.4% gain. Not that they have had any real influence over trade in recent weeks, but earnings announcements have begun to wane. Among the more widely-held issues to recently report, Dow component Kraft (KFT) posted better-than-expected earnings and reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2010. AIG (AIG) had another messy quarter, but managed to post an upside earnings surprise.

06:58 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.00.

06:58 am : Nikkei...9642.12...-11.80...-0.10%. Hang Seng...21678.80...+127.10...+0.60%.

06:58 am : FTSE...5404.74...+39.00...+0.70%. DAX...6364.84...+31.30...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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