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 Post subject: July 22nd Thursday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +14.40
PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:09 pm 
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U.S. Stocks Rise as UPS, AT&T, Qualcomm Lift Forecasts
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gaining the most in two weeks, after companies from United Parcel Service Inc. to AT&T Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. increased profit forecasts @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Xnf5ZTVtvc

Dow's 200-Point Rebound
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
July 22, 2010: 6:44 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Thursday after better-than-expected earnings and forecasts from 3M, Caterpillar, AT&T and UPS helped reassure investors about the pace of the economic recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 202 points, or 2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index jumped 24 points, or 2.3%. The Nasdaq (COMP) composite gained 58 points, or 2.7%.

Stocks slumped Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress the outlook for the economy was "unusually uncertain," adding to worries about the pace of the recovery.

But the tone was positive Thursday, on the back of improved earnings, better-than-expected housing market news and a surge in European markets.

After the close, Dow component Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates, thanks to strong sales of its Windows 7 and a better personal computer market than in recent months. Shares were barely changed after the close.

Also after the close, Dow component American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped expectations. But AmEx's CEO said the company remains cautious about the economic outlook and shares dipped 1% in after-hours trading.

Quarterly results: Dow component Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates due to better sales of gear for the mining, infrastructure and energy industries. Caterpillar also boosted its 2010 profit forecast. Shares gained 1.7%.

Fellow Dow component 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings and said that full-year 2010 profit will exceed its earlier targets, thanks to strong demand in both the United States and abroad. The company is seen as a good proxy for the economy due to the breadth of its business, which includes everything from Scotch tape to films for flat-screen TVs. Shares gained 3%.

UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates and said that 2010 earnings will surpass its earlier forecasts. The delivery company cited an increase in package revenue in both the United States and abroad. Shares gained 6%. UPS is often seen as an economic bellwether due to the nature of its business.

Dow component AT&T (T, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates and higher revenue that was shy of estimates. The company also lifted its 2010 forecast, citing cost cutting and a surge in wireless business, thanks to its exclusive iPhone deal with Apple. Shares gained 2.4%.

Late Wednesday, eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates, thanks to strength at its PayPal only payments unit. The online auctioneer also lowered the high end of its full-year 2010 profit forecast, citing the impact of the weaker euro. Shares gained 3.8% Thursday.

Housing: Sales of existing home sales fell 5.1% in June from May levels, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors released Thursday. But the drop was smaller than expected. Sales rose nearly 10% from a year earlier.

Jobs: The House voted to extend jobless claims benefits until November, ending a seven-week old debate between lawmakers that saw federal benefits for the long-term unemployed run out. President Obama is expected to sign the extension shortly.

Earlier, the Department of Labor reported that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose to 464,000 last week from a two-year low of 427,000 in the prior week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought claims would rise to 445,000.

Continuing claims, a measure of Americans who have been receiving benefits for a week or more, fell to 4,487,000 from 4,710,000 in the previous week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 4,600,000.
0:00 /4:3820% of American's hit by loss

Deals: General Motors said it will buy auto financing firm AmeriCredit (ACP) in a $3.5 billion all-cash deal. The deal gives GM a lending unit after selling its majority stake in GMAC in 2006. The deal was also seen as a key step as GM prepares its initial public offering for later this year, after the government restructured it in bankruptcy. AmeriCredit shares jumped 23%.

Dell: Computer maker Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) agreed to pay $100 million to settle fraud charges with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Chairman Michael Dell and former CEO Kevin Rollins will pay $4 million each. Dell shares finished 2.5% higher.

Leading indicators: The index of leading economic indicators fell 0.2% in June, the Conference Board reported, after rising 0.5% in May. Economists expected the index to have fallen 0.4%.

World markets: European markets rose, with Britain's FTSE 100 up 1.9%, Germany's DAX up 2.5% and France's CAC 40 up 3%.

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.1% and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.3%.

Currencies: The euro gained versus the dollar. The dollar rose versus the Japanese yen.
Oil spill czar: 'It's my call'

Commodities: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery rose $2.46 to $79.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $2.80 to $1,194.60 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 2.93% from 2.89% late Wednesday. Debt prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth: Breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by over six to one on volume of 1.18 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners by five to one on volume of 2.28 billion shares.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : A sharp rebound sent the S&P 500 back above its 50-day moving average, but the benchmark index couldn't quite make it to 1100, which marks a formidable point of resistance.

Stocks booked steep losses in the prior session as uncertainty undermined trade, but a rebound began to take shape in early morning futures trade as Europe's major bourses rallied amid a stronger-than-expected eurozone PMI reading and retail spending numbers for the United Kingdom. The euro also responded positively; it retraced its prior session slide to settle 1.1% higher against the greenback on Thursday.

In contrast to recent sessions, market participants appeared to cheer the latest round of earnings results, which featured more than 100 reports and were generally better-than-expected.

Some of the strongest gains were made by industrial plays, like Union Pacific (UNP 72.40, +3.28) and UPS (UPS 63.15, +3.14). Both bested expectations for the bottom line, but UPS complemented its report with an increased outlook.

Fellow industrial issues and Dow components 3M (MMM 84.75, +2.45) and Caterpillar (CAT 68.00, +1.13) also reported better-than-expected bottom line results. 3M also issued upside guidance, while CAT raised its forecast so that it is in step with what Wall Street has forecast.

Among other blue chips, AT&T (T 25.51, +0.59) posted an upside surprise and raised its outlook, but and Travelers (TRV 49.29, -0.58) came short of the consensus earnings estimate and even cut its forecast.

A battery of regional banks was also out with earnings. SunTrust Banks (STI 24.58, +2.16), Fifth Third (FITB 12.43, +1.15), KeyCorp (KEY 7.95, +0.41), PNC Bank (PNC 59.78, +1.24), and Huntington Banc (HBAN 5.85, +0.18) each beat, but BB&T Corp (BBT 25.34, -0.57) was a let down.

Banks will likely remain in close focus tomorrow, when results from a series of stress tests on European banks will be released.

Health care stocks generally lagged throughout the session, even though both Eli Lilly (LLY 35.15, +0.20) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 24.93, +0.18) beat earnings expectations.

Nonetheless, all 10 major sectors advanced. Most had heady gains. That helped the S&P 500 sprint past its 50-day moving average, but stocks struggled to push the move to within reach of the 1100 line.

Once again, trading volume wasn't very impressive. It came short of 1.2 billion shares on the NYSE, which has averaged almost 1.4 billion shares per session during the past 50 trading days.

Fed Chairman Bernanke triggered selling in the prior session, when he spoke of unusual uncertainty in the economy before the Senate Banking Committee, but his comments to the House Financial Services Committee today had no real impact on trade since they were consistent with what he had already stated. Interestingly enough, his comments generally reflected what had already been indicated by the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting.

Keeping a focus on the economy, the latest initial jobless claims count climbed 37,000 week-over-week to 464,000, which is more than the 445,000 initial claims that had been widely expected. Continuing claims dropped 223,000 week-over-week to just below 4.49 million, but that is likely due to the expiration of jobless benefits. To help support unemployed workers, the House approved today a bill to extend jobless benefits.

As for housing, existing home sales for June fell 5.1% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 5.37 million units. That is a better rate than the 5.09 million units that had been widely expected. News that total months supply climbed to 8.9 from 8.3 was disregarded.

Leading indicators for June got little attention. They reportedly slipped 0.2%, which is slightly less severe than the 0.4% decline that had been widely expected.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+3.1%), Industrials (+3.1%), Consumer Discretionary (+3.1%), Tech (+2.7%), Materials (+2.3%), Energy (+2.2%), Telecom (+2.0%), Utilities (+1.6%), Consumer Staples (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.5%)
Declining Sectors: (None) DJ30 +201.77 NASDAQ +58.56 NQ100 +2.5% R2K +3.7% SP400 +2.9% SP500 +24.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2206/2.27 bln/432 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2673/1.18 bln/396

3:30 pm : It was a sizeable up day for the CRB Commodity Index, which rallied for 2%. Energy was the leading index after it rallied for 3.3%, led by a 3.6% gain in Sept heating oil futures. The rally in equity indices, helped by better-than-expected earnings out of blue chips and some better-than-expected economic data in Europe, pushed Sept crude oil to put in highs at $79.42, its best levels since May 6. It finished the session higher by 3.6% to $79.30 per barrel. August natural gas finished higher by 2.7% to $4.634 per MMBtu. A tropical depression projected to head into the Gulf of Mexico helped natural gas futures higher.

Aug gold finished higher by 0.3% to $1195.60 per ounce, while Sept silver closed up 1.8% to $18.12. DJ30 +230.22 NASDAQ +63.20 SP500 +27.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2169/1.7 bln/458 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2684/775.2 mln/375

3:00 pm : The final hour of trade has arrived. Stocks enter it with their best single-session percentage gain since a 3.1% surge two weeks ago. Though the S&P 500 has been in a six point range since 10:00 AM ET, many market watchers will pay close attention to whether the gains hold steady into the close. Such a finish would give the broader market a close above its 50-day moving average. DJ30 +224.47 NASDAQ +59.63 SP500 +26.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2159/1.59 bln/466 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2675/715 mln/374

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 recently moved modestly upward to notch a fractionally improved session high. Though the move wasn't much, it marks an attempt by the stock market to break free from the sideways drift that has made for range bound action in the past few hours.

Announced only a few minutes ago, the House of Representatives has passed a bill intended to extend unemployment benefits. The Senate approved the bill last night. DJ30 +229.09 NASDAQ +58.42 SP500 +26.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2170/1.46 bln/440 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2680/650 mln/356

2:00 pm : The stock market continues to move sideways, but strong gains are still in hand.

Despite such steady strength, there hasn't been much volume behind this session's surge. Specifically, fewer than 600 million shares have been traded so far on the NYSE. With only a couple hours left in the session it is unlikely that total trading volume on the Big Board will reach its 50-session average of almost 1.4 billion shares. Such thin trade can often lead to exagerated moves in the market. DJ30 +213.76 NASDAQ +53.70 SP500 +24.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2139/1.35 bln/455 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2652/591 mln/374

1:30 pm : Gains remain impressive, but the S&P 500 remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range. Whether that is the result of resistance near the 1100 line or the consolidation of this session's heady advance.

Nonetheless, the steady gains have kept consistent pressure on Treasuries, such that the benchmark 10-year Note has spent almost the entire session grappling with a loss of more than 10 ticks. DJ30 +222.81 NASDAQ +56.24 SP500 +25.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2147/1.25 bln/436 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2642/548 mln/365

1:05 pm : Stocks have been sharply higher for the entire session. The broadly positive tone comes in stark contrast to the uncertainty that had undermined trade in the prior session.

Market participants were motivated in the early going by strong gains in Europe and the euro's rally against the greenback -- Europe's primary bourses booked gans that ranged from nearly 2% to just above 3% and the euro is currently up 1.2% versus the U.S. dollar. Those moves came largely in response to some upbeat data out of that continent.

Though the latest earnings results would appear to provide a positive backdrop to this session's action, market participants have frequently had mixed-to-underwhelming responses to this quarter's announcements. Despite that, numbers from rail carrier Union Pacific (UNP 73.51, +4.39) have inspired buying among industrial plays. UPS (UPS 63.50, +3.49) has provided additional support with its upside surprise and increased outlook.

Dow components 3M (MMM 84.90, +2.60) and Caterpillar (CAT 68.13, +1.26) also reported better-than-expected bottom line results. 3M also issued upside guidance, while CAT raised its forecast so that it matches that of Wall Street.

Strength among industrial plays has helped the industrial sector to a 3.2% gain, which puts it out in front of the broader market for the second straight session.

AT&T (T 25.73, +0.81) and Travelers (TRV 49.40, -0.48) are a couple of other blue chips that have recently reported results. Their announcements contrasted in that AT&T posted an upside surprise and raised its outlook, while Travelers came short of the consensus earnings estimate and trimmed its guidance.

A battery of regional banks came out with better-than-expected earnings of their own. That has helped The KBW Bank Index climb to a gain in excess of 3%. Banks have also been helped by the expectation that European bank stress test results, which will be released tomorrow, will be solid.

Worth noting is that this session's advance has come in the face of a relatively mixed bag of data, which included a worse-than-expected initial jobless claims count and a sharp decline in continuing jobless claims. The sharp drop likely stems from the expiration of jobless benefits - reports indicated last night that the House is expected to vote today on whether to extend jobless benefits.

In other data, existing home sales for June fell less than had been widely expected and the total sales median price climbed to a multimonth high, but total sales months supply climbed also climbed to a multimonth high.

Separately, leading indicators for June slipped slightly less than had been expected.

Fed Chairman Bernanke testified before the House Financial Services Committee. His comments were consistent with those issued yesterday to the Senate Banking Committee, including remarks about unusual uncertainty in the economy. DJ30 +208.27 NASDAQ +51.43 SP500 +23.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2148/1.12 bln/428 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2639/505 mln/360

12:30 pm : The KBW Bank Index is up 3.4% following some better-than-expected earnings from a battery of regional banks. Among those that reported since the prior session's close, SunTrust Banks (STI 24.46, +2.04) topped Wall Street's earnings estimate by $0.24 per share, Fifth Third (FITB 12.37, +1.09) exceeded expectations by $0.14 per share, KeyCorp (KEY 7.88, +0.34) bested the consensus by $0.17 per share, PNC Bank (PNC 60.03, +1.49) posted a beat of $0.19 per share, and Huntington Banc (HBAN 5.86, +0.19) had an upside surprise of $0.03 per share. BB&T Corp (BBT 25.10, -0.81) became the odd man out after it came $0.04 short of the consensus earnings estimate.

Strength from bank stocks, along with broader market support, has helped the financial sector put together a 2.6% gain. DJ30 +200.86 NASDAQ +50.63 SP500 +22.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2118/1.09 bln/440 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2615/470 mln/364

12:00 pm : The major averages have handed back a few points in recent minutes, but gains remain rich.

Industrial stocks continue to outperform. The sector is up 3.0% as 54 of the sector's 56 members sport gains -- Danaher (DHR 36.91, -0.89) and Stericycle (SRCL 63.71, -0.20) are laggards. Danaher's weakness flies in the face of a better-than-expected bottom line for the latest quarter and increased guidance. UPS (UPS 64.07, +4.06) also beat expectations and raised its forecast, but it has been a leader among industrial plays. DJ30 +199.65 NASDAQ +50.96 SP500 +22.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2105/992 mln/425 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2610/430 mln/354

11:30 am : The stock market has entered into a rather narrow range that runs along session highs. That has helped it preserve its best single-session percentage gain of the past two weeks.

Small-cap stocks are even stronger, though. Specifically, the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is up 3.2% as its advancing issues outnumber its decliners by 25-to-1. While that is impressive, the ovrall move isn't quite as strong as the 3.4% gain that the Russell 2000 staged just last week. DJ30 +217.74 NASDAQ +56.62 SP500 +25.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2123/855 mln/369 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2610/378 mln/312

11:00 am : The mood among market participants remains decidedly positive. That has helped all 10 major sectors put together gains of at least 1%. Possibly more impressive is that seven of those 10 sectors are up in excess of 2%.

Commodities continue to benefit from the upbeat tone, too. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is up 1.7% in its best single-session advance of the past two weeks.

Such strength has caused volatility to cool. Specifically, the Volatility Index is down 7%. DJ30 +215.62 NASDAQ +57.39 SP500 +25.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2130/710 mln/339 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2608/312 mln/273

10:35 am : Commodities have rallied in recent activity, mainly due to weakness in the dollar index and broad market strength today.

August natural gas traded along with most other commodities this morning. It traded modestly higher ahead of the open of pit trading, but rallied sharply at the open of pit trading to new morning highs of $4.68 per MMBtu. Today's strength is also being helped by a strengthened tropical storm in the Caribbean that has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center. Ahead of inventory data, natural gas was just below that high at $4.64 per MMBtu. But, following the data, which showed a build of 51 bcf versus consensus, which called for a build of 50 bcf, natural gas initially pulled back from highs and is now 2.5% higher at $4.63 per MMBtu.

September crude oil was trading modestly higher earlier this morning, but rallied when pit trading opened, pushing to new session highs of $78.47 per barrel. In current activity, crude is trading just under those levels at $78.16 per barrel, up 2.1%.

Precious metals rallied sharply in the last hour, largely due to weakness in the dollar index. August gold rallied ~$15 into positive territory and to new session highs of $1201.20 per ounce, while September silver rallied into positive territory to new session highs of $18.20 per ounce. Gold is currently 0.6% higher at $1198.40 per ounce, while silver is 2.1% higher at $18.18 per ounce.

DJ30 10311.85 NASDAQ 2238.90 SP500 1092.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2066/516.3 mln/312 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2588/235.6 mln/242

10:00 am : The stock market has modestly extended its opening climb. However, market pundits posit that it is now entering a resistance zone that ranges from 1088 to 1092 zone. Some believe that if the S&P 500 can push through that mark then it could have a legitimate shot at 1100.

Just released, existing home sales for June fell 5.1% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 5.37 million units, which is above the 5.09 million annualized units that had been widely expected. Additionally, the total sales median price climbed to $183,700 from $174,600, but total sales months supply climbed to 8.9 from 8.3.

Separately, leading indicators for June slipped 0.2%, which is slightly less than the 0.4% decline that had been widely expected after a 0.5% monthly increase in May.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+2.6%), Industrials (+2.5%), Financials (+2.5%), Consumer Discretionary (+2.4%), Tech (+2.1%), Energy (+2.0%), Telecom (+1.9%), Utilities (+1.5%), Health Care (+0.9%), Consumer Staples (+0.8%)
Declining Sectors: (None) DJ30 +180.43 NASDAQ +46.92 SP500 +22.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1980/284 mln/301 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2501/139 mln/253

09:45 am : The stock market has sprinted out to a strong gain in the first few minutes of trade. The early advance has not only erased the prior session's loss, but it has taken the S&P 500 back above its 50-day moving average.

Strength is broad based, but industrial plays are showing leadership for the second straight session. The sector is up 2.2% at the moment. Railroad stocks, up 4.0% collectively, are a key source of support after Union Pacific (UNP 72.25, +3.13) posted a better-than-expected bottom line. DJ30 +135.85 NASDAQ +38.04 SP500 +17.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1910/174 mln/251 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2434/86 mln/226

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.00. Stock futures had been flat overnight, but they got an early morning boost as both the euro and major bourses in Europe began to rally on the back of some upbeat data, which included a stronger-than-expected eurozone PMI figure and retail sales in the United Kingdom. The euro has held strong to its gain so that it remains near its session high with a 0.9% gain against the dollar. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX (+1.7%), France's CAC (+1.8%), and Britain's FTSE (+1.0%) are either at or near their session highs. Domestic averages appear to be positioned for opening gains of more than 1%. Such strength persists in the face of the latest weekly jobless claims figures, which featured a higher-than-expected initial claims count of 464,000 and a sharp decline in continuing claims to approximately 4.49 million. More data is due at 10:00 AM ET, when existing home sales figures for June and leading indicators for June are released. Shortly before that, Fed Chairman Bernanke will testify before the House Financial Services Committee (9:30 AM ET) in what will likely be a rehash of yesterday's comments to the Senate Banking Committee. Market participants have been inundated with a barrage of earnings reports, the bulk of which have been better than expected.

08:45 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.30. Stock futures continue to sport a strong overall lead against fair value as they recover from a recent slip that followed the latest weekly jobless claims figures, which were released at 8:30 AM ET. Initial jobless claims for the week ended July 17 totaled 464,000, which is up 37,000 from the prior week and more than the 445,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com. The four-week average for initial claims now stands at 456,000, up from 454,750. Meanwhile, continuing claims dropped 223,000 week-over-week to just below 4.49 million.

08:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.00. Stock futures point to a rebound from the prior session's selloff. The move has been helped by strong gains in Europe, which posted some better-than-expected data. The euro has also rallied to a near 1% gain against the greenback. Market participants have been digesting a barrage of earnings reports, including widely-held names like UPS (UPS), Caterpillar (CAT), 3M (MMM), eBay (EBAY), Travelers (TRV), and AT&T (T). There is also news that General Motors will acquire AmeriCredit (ACF) for $3.5 billion in cash. The latest weekly jobless claims count is due at 8:30 AM ET. Fed Chairman Bernanke will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 9:30 AM ET. His comments should reflect those issued in his testimony yesterday. The latest round of existing home sales figures is due at 10:00 AM ET, along with the latest in leading indicators. Natural gas inventory data is due at 10:30 AM ET.

07:23 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.50.

07:22 am : Nikkei...9220.88...-58.00...-0.60%. Hang Seng...20589.70...+102.50...+0.50%.

07:22 am : FTSE...5267.12...+52.30...+1.00%. DAX...6087.93...+97.70...+1.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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