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 Post subject: July 14th Wednesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +6.10
PostPosted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:06 pm 
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4:30 pm : Better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance from tech bellwether Intel drove the Dow and Nasdaq higher for the seventh straight session, but the S&P 500 settled fractionally below the neutral line for an anticlimactic end to its recent streak of gains.

A stellar report from Dow component Intel (INTC 21.36, +0.35) provided investors with a picture of an improved business environment and sent tech stocks to a 0.8% gain, collectively. The tech sector couldn't quite extend its gain above its 200-day moving average, though.

Meanwhile, the tech-rich Nasdaq outperformed the broader market for almost all of the session as the S&P 500 was mired in choppy, mixed trade. Broader market participants failed to rally around Intel's announcement. Their lack of interest was partly owed to the notion that the stock market had become overbought after it had advanced in six straight sessions for a cumulative gain of more than 7%.

Financials weighed on the broader market for the entire session. As a group they fell to a 0.9% loss as bank stocks showed weakness ahead of a quarterly report from Dow component and banking bellwether JPMorgan (JPM 40.35, -0.13) Thursday morning. The KBW Bank Index dropped 1.6%.

Economic data did little to help extend the recent buying effort. After all, the latest FOMC meeting minutes indicated that real GDP for 2010 is now expected to range from 3.0% to 3.5%, which is down from the previous range of 3.2% to 3.7%, while the projection for 2011 GDP ranges from 3.5% to 4.2% after it had previously ranged from 3.4% to 4.5%.

As for unemployment, the 2010 projection rate ranges from 9.2% to 9.5% after it had ranged from 9.1% to 9.5%. The expected unemployment rate for 2011 ranges from 8.3% to 8.7% after it had ranged from 8.0% to 8.5% before.

FOMC members agreed that it would be appropriate to keep the target federal funds rate at a range of 0.00% to 0.25%.

Advance Retail Sales for June fell a sharper-than-expected 0.5% and sales less autos slipped 0.1% when no change had been expected.

Import prices for June fell 1.3% month-over-month after a 0.5% monthly decline in May.

Business inventory data for May increased by 0.1%, which is slightly softer than the 0.2% increase that had been widely expected.

Results from the latest 30-year Treasury Bond auction saw strong dollar demand of $37.6 billion and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.9. Indirect bidder participation was 37%. The prior auction saw dollar demand of $37.3 billion and a bid-to-cover of 2.9 and indirect bidder participation of 36%.

Treasuries didn't make much of an immediate response to the numbers, but they were able to settle with strong gains, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note moved below 3.05% and the yield on the 30-year Bond moved closer to 4.00%.

The euro managed to swing from a loss to fractionally improved two-month high against the greenback, but it eased back a bit to settle the session with a 0.1% gain.

Participation was underwhelming as hardly 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE. The 50-day moving average stands between 1.4 billion and 1.5 billion shares per session.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+0.8%), Industrials (+0.2%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Health Care (+0.1%), Materials (+0.1%), Telecom (+0.1%), Utilities (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.5%), Energy (-0.3%) DJ30 +3.70 NASDAQ +7.81 NQ100 +0.5% R2K -0.4% SP400 -0.2% SP500 -0.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1092/2.16 bln/1505 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1331/1.06 bln/1629

3:30 pm : Today's modest (0.1%) gains in the CRB Commodity Index were led by the 1.7% rally in grains. Sept corn futures closed the session higher by 2.4% to $3.84 per bushel.

The precious metals sector had a relatively choppy session, as it closed higher by 0.1%. Aug gold shed 0.3% to finish at $1207.00 per ounce, while Sept silver closed up 0.5% to $18.29 per ounce. Both metals retraced their mid-morning rallies -spurred by weakness in the dollar index- to close near the flat line.

This morning's inventory data was a non-event for Aug crude oil, which finished lower by 0.1% to $77.04 per barrel. Aug natural gas had another very quiet session as it chopped around the flat line. It closed lower by 0.8% to $4.32 per MMBtu. DJ30 -13.02 NASDAQ +7.87 SP500 -1.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1058/1.80 bln/1522 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1223/741 mln/1740

3:00 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 have begun to trim their losses. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has successfully made its way back into higher ground.

The stock market's upturn comes even though the euro has surrendered a chunk of its gains. The currency is now up less than 0.1% against the greenback.

Meanwhile, Treasuries have ticked to session highs, such that the benchmark 10-year Note is now up 20 ticks. Its yield stands at 3.05%.

Participation is paltry, once again. To be specific, fewer than 700 million shares have thus far traded hands on the NYSE. Though there is typically an acceleration in activity during the final hour, it is very unlikely that total share volume will spike so much that the end of the day total is on par with the 1.5 billion shares that have been traded, on average, over the course of the past 50 sessions. DJ30 -23.92 NASDAQ +3.27 SP500 -3.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 952/1.64 bln/1628 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1033/658 mln/1895

2:30 pm : According to the latest FOMC meeting minutes, which were released at 1:00 PM ET, recent data on production and spending were broadly in-line with expectations. However, the pace of the expansion over the next year and a half is expected to be somewhat slower than previously predicted as the participants see real GDP for 2010 at 3.0% to 3.5%, which is down from the previous range of 3.2% to 3.7%, while the projection for 2011 ranges from 3.5% to 4.2% after it had previously ranged from 3.4% to 4.5%.

As for unemployment, the 2010 projection rate ranges from 9.2% to 9.5% after it had ranged from 9.1% to 9.5%, while the 2011 rate is expected to range from 8.3% to 8.7% after it had ranged from 8.0% to 8.5% before.

In a discussion of monetary policy, FOMC members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range of 0.00% to 0.25% for the federal funds rate.

There wasn't much of an immediate reaction to the release of the minutes, but stocks have drifted to session lows in the wake of the report's release. DJ30 -50.11 NASDAQ -4.94 SP500 -6.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 856/1.53 bln/1693 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 913/605 mln/2034

2:00 pm : The stock market has slipped back to a loss. Though moderate, weakness is once again relatively widespread with eight of the 10 major sectors in the red.

Financials continue to find themselves under the stiffest of selling efforts. The sector is down 1.2% with its declining issues outnumbering its advancers by 6-to-1. Regional banks are among the worst performers as Regions Financial (RF 7.09, -0.29), SunTrust (STI 25.17, -1.01), and Zions Bancorp (ZION 23.23, -0.97) lag.

Tech (+0.6%) and industrials (+0.1%) are the only two sectors still in higher ground. DJ30 -13.67 NASDAQ +4.35 SP500 -2.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1077/1.36 bln/1452 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1207/521 mln/1716

1:30 pm : Results from the latest 30-year Treasury Bond auction were released at 1:00 PM ET. The auction saw strong dollar demand of $37.6 billion amid a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.9 and indirect bidder participation of 37%. The prior auction saw dollar demand of $37.3 billion and a bid-to-cover of 2.9 and indirect bidder participation of 36%. For comparison, the 12-auction average had dollar demand of $35 billion, a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.6, and indirect bidder participation of 39%.

Treasuries haven't shown much of a response to the release of the results. Their gains remain solid, though. DJ30 +5.37 NASDAQ +12.37 SP500 +0.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1211/1.25 bln/1314 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1390/475 mln/1494

1:00 pm : Though the broader market was initially slow to follow the tech sector to a gain, it has since made its way higher to flirt with the prospect of a seventh straight advance.

A mild fit of selling pressure met stocks at the open as market participants questioned whether the recent relief rally had become overextended after climbing some 7% during the course of six sessions. Such concern diminished the overall impact of a stellar report from tech bellwether Intel (INTC 21.76, +0.75), which not only posted better-than-expected earnings, but also issued an upside forecast that suggests its management is confident in the business environment and broader economy going forward.

Intel has led the tech sector to a 1.3% gain. The climb puts the sector face-to-face with its 200-day moving average of roughly 359.

The tech sector's ability to hold its gain in the face of formidable technical resistance has helped provide the broader market with leadership. Though the S&P 500 has made its way into positive territory to trade above its 50-day moving average, its overall gain remains slight.

A bounce by the euro has also helped improve the tone among market participants. The euro managed to swing from a loss to a gain of roughly 0.3% against the greenback put the euro at a fractionally improved two-month high.

Financials have hampered action since the opening bell. The sector is currently down 0.9% as market participants prepare for tomorrow morning's quarterly report from JPMorgan (JPM 40.21, -0.27).

Retailers also remain weak. They are down a collective 0.7% following news that Advance Retail Sales for June fell a sharper-than-expected 0.5% and sales less autos slipped 0.1% when no change had been expected.

Import price data was given little attention. Prices for June reportedly fell 1.3% month-over-month after a 0.5% monthly decline in May.

The midmorning release of business inventory data for may coincided with the stock market's session low. Inventories for May increased by 0.1%, which is slightly softer than the 0.2% increase that had been widely expected.

Due at any moment are results from an auction of 30-year Bonds.

Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are scheduled for release at 2:00 PM ET. DJ30 +8.62 NASDAQ +13.32 SP500 +0.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1187/1.16 bln/1302 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1413/438 mln/1466

12:30 pm : The major equity averages have eased back a bit in recent trade, but they remain in positive territory. Gains are more enviable in the Nasdaq 100, which is currently up 0.9% as large-cap tech issues tick higher following a stellar report from semiconductor giant Intel (INTC 21.79, +0.78). DJ30 +20.05 NASDAQ +16.22 SP500 +2.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1212/1.06 bln/1265 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1517/402 mln/1340

12:00 pm : The tech sector is now up 1.5%. The climb marks its seventh straight advance and gives it a cumulative gain of more than 9% over that span. Though the sector's streak of gains has taken it above its 50-day moving average, it faces a much more formidable line of resistance at its 200-day moving average of roughly 359, which is where it currently trades.

As for the broader market, it is back above its 50-day moving average, which currently stands around 1093, but it has a ways to go before it can test its 200-day moving average, which currently stands at 1112. DJ30 +31.93 NASDAQ +17.53 SP500 +3.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1245/965 mln/1204 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1548/363 mln/1282

11:30 am : The S&P 500 has poked into positive territory amid a pullback by the greenback -- the dollar is now down 0.3% to trade at a session low against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Most of the dollar's downturn has been to the benefit of the euro, which is now up 0.3% against the greenback. That gain extends the euro's 1% advance in the prior session and takes the currency to a fractionally improved two-month high relative to the dollar. DJ30 +16.61 NASDAQ +11.91 SP500 +1.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1084/850 mln/1326 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1362/318 mln/1442

11:00 am : The S&P 500 recently worked its way to the neutral line, but choppy action has taken it back to a modest loss. The tone to trade has been generally lackluster since the opening bell, even though tech bellwether Intel (INTC 21.76, +0.75) gave market participants a strong quarterly report that not only featured better-than-expected earnings, but also an upside forecast. Many market participants are expected to take their cues from corporate outlooks, given that they convey a sense of confidence or diffidence in the business environment and broader economy going forward.

Though the broader market has failed to follow, Intel has led the tech sector to a 0.9% gain. Industrials (+0.3%) make up the only other sector to trade in higher ground. DJ30 +6.58 NASDAQ +6.06 SP500 -0.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 905/688 mln/1459 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1022/258 mln/1759

10:30 am : The US Dollar Index pulled back to the unchanged line in recent trade, which provided price support to some commodities. However, the energy and precious metals markets are still trading in negative territory.

August crude oil has been trading in the red since the middle of the overnight session. Crude just hit fresh session lows of $76.38 per barrel. Ahead of today's inventory data, crude was trading just above that level at $76.67 per barrel. Following the data, which showed a draw of 5.06 million barrels versus the consensus, which called for a draw of 1.5 million barrels, crude pushed back near the flat line, but is now trading 0.5% lower at $76.75 per barrel.

August natural gas chopped around the unchanged line during the overnight session. In recent trade, natural gas fell to new session lows of $4.31 per MMBtu, but is back near the flat line in current trade at $4.36 per MMBtu.

Precious metals continue to trade in negative territory as the dollar index is just modestly higher. August gold has been trading in the red for the last few hours. Gold hit morning lows of $1206.10 per ounce in recent activity and is near that level in current trade at $1209.40 per ounce, down 0.3%. September silver also hit lows in recent trade of $18.12 per ounce and is currently 0.1% lower at $18.23 per ounce. DJ30 +1.89 NASDAQ +8.77 SP500 -1.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 915/512.9 mln/1386 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 863/192.0 mln/1848

10:00 am : Business inventories for May increased by 0.1%, which is slightly softer than the 0.2% increase that had been widely expected after inventories climbed 0.4% in the prior month.

Stocks have fallen to fresh session lows in the few minutes that follow the data's release. Pressure remains most pronounced among financials, which are now down 1.3%.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+0.6%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-1.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.2%), Energy (-1.1%), Utilities (-1.0%), Materials (-0.8%), Health Care (-0.7%), Industrials (-0.6%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Telecom (-0.2%) DJ30 -39.28 NASDAQ -1.97 SP500 -6.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 654/330 mln/1558 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 572/130 mln/2118

09:45 am : The major equity averages are mixed at the moment. The muddled action comes as the tech sector spikes 0.9% on the back of a strong quarterly report from Intel (INTC 21.90, +0.89) and the financial sector drops to a 1.1% loss as regional banks fall 1.7% and diversified financial services plays are pushed to a 1.2% loss.

Meanwhile, Treasuries have moved higher. Specifically, the benchmark 10-year Note is up a dozen ticks.

Coming up is another dose of data is due at the top of the hour, when the latest business inventory data will be released. DJ30 -8.97 NASDAQ +7.40 SP500 -2.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 767/250 mln/1367 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 696/100 mln/1950

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. Six straight advances have resulted in a cumulative gain of more than 7% for the S&P 500, but stock futures currently suggest that the market may have some difficulty extending that string of gains. Overnight trade had shown promise as investors reacted positively to better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance from tech bellwether Intel (INTC), but index futures have since gradually given up their gains in the past few hours. Advance retail sales figures for June failed to re-inflate the morning mood - overall sales saw a sharper-than-expected 0.5% slide, while sales less autos declined a more moderate 0.1%. Import prices for June fell 1.3%, more than expected, as inflation remains non-threatening. Still to come, though, is the latest in business inventory data (10:00 AM ET), results from an auction of 30-year Treasury Bonds (1:00 PM ET), and FOMC minutes (2:00 PM ET).

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30. S&P 500 futures continue to chop along the neutral line, while Europe's major bourses have fallen under a fit of weakness that has the EuroStoxx 50 down 0.6%. As for Germany's DAX, it is down 0.3%. BMW is a primary source of weakness among consumer goods stocks, which are down a collective 1.3%. In France, the CAC has fallen to a 0.8% loss after it had been up 0.5% in earlier trade. Financials, down 1.6%, are primary culprits in the index's reversal. The FTSE, a weighted index of the most highly capitalized companies on the London Stock Exchange, is down 0.8%. While its weakness is widespread, tech stocks are still up 1.0% as a group following an exceptional report from Intel (INTC). In Asia, Japan's Nikkei spiked overnight to a 2.7% gain. Intel inspired the tech sector to surge 3.5%. Utilities lagged with a 0.2% loss. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.8% higher. It was led by energy plays like China Petroleum (SNP) and PetroChina (PTR) and banking issues like Bank of China and Industrial Bank. Insurers lagged, though. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced 0.6% as consumer goods stocks climbed 2.4%. Tech plays were actually weak, such that the sector lost 0.8%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. Stock futures had shed a few points ahead of the latest monthly retail sales figures, and even though they have since steadied their descent, they remain well short of overnight highs. Advance retail sales for June fell 0.5%, which is a slightly sharper decline than the 0.2% decline that had been expected, on average, by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com. Though the decline was sharper than expected, it was not as severe as the prior month's 1.1% slide. Excluding autos, retail sales for June slipped 0.1%, though a sample of economists had expected no change after a 1.2% decline in the prior month. Separately, import prices for June fell 1.3% month-over-month after a 0.5% monthly decline in May. Year-over-year, import prices for June were up 4.5% and 8.7% in the prior month.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.50. Semiconductor bellwether Intel (INTC) posted after the prior session's close better-than-expected earnings and issued upside guidance. The strength of the report has shares of INTC up more than 6% in premarket trade. The report has also propped up broader market stock futures, especially those of the tech-rich Nasdaq. As for overseas action, Asia's major averages made strong gains in the wake of Wall Street's spike on Tuesday, but Europe's major bourses are currently mixed. The dollar is up fractionally amid choppy action in the euro, which had climbed to a fractionally improved two-month high against the greenback yesterday. Still to come this morning are retail sales figures for June and June import price data at 8:30 AM ET. Business inventories for May follow at 10:00 AM ET. In the afternoon, results from an auction of 30-year Bonds will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, followed by minutes from the latest FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET.

06:29 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.80.

06:29 am : Nikkei...9795.24...+258.00...+2.70%. Hang Seng...20560.81...+129.80...+0.60%.

06:29 am : FTSE...5245.83...-25.10...-0.50%. DAX...6189.40...-1.70...0.00.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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