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 Post subject: July 13th Tuesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.20
PostPosted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:04 pm 
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July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. and European stocks climbed for a sixth day, commodities rallied and Treasuries extended their longest losing streak in 11 months as Alcoa Inc.'s forecast of growing global demand and Greece's sale of debt bolstered optimism in the economic outlook. Bloomberg's Pimm Fox also speaks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLUoLBLLB7Q

4:30 pm : A positive start to earnings season and a surge by the euro sent stocks to their sixth straight gain, but the broader market couldn't quite close above its 50-day moving average.

Stocks traded with strength for the entire session. Market participants responded positively to the latest quarterly report from Dow component Alcoa (AA 11.00, +0.13), which unofficially started earnings season on a strong note with better-than-expected earnings and revenue. Fellow Dow component Chevron (CVX 72.23, +1.38) complemented the report with a statement that it expects sequential earnings growth, which is tantamount to upside guidance given what analysts had already forecast.

Though all 10 major sectors staged gains, financials finished with the best gains. The sector settled 2.6% as bank stocks and diversified financial services shares surged. As such, the KBW Bank Index advanced 3.0%.

Meanwhile, the euro gained 1.0% against the greenback to find a fractionally improved two-month high. The had actually been behind the dollar overnight, but it began a steady climb after Greece held a successful debt auction. Little was made of news that Moody's downgraded Portugal's debt since Moody's had the highest rating on the country ahead of the decision.

While stocks spent the entire session with impressive gains, they couldn't quite muster enough momentum to sustain their first push past the S&P 500's 50-day moving average since early May - the 50-day average currently stands at 1096.

Participation was moderate this session. Specifically, 1.1 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE. The 50-day average for trading volume is closer to 1.5 billion shares.

The stock market's strength kept steady pressure on Treasuries this session. They weren't helped by the latest 10-year Note auction, which was met with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.1, dollar demand of almost $65 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 42%. The prior auction produced a bid-to-cover of 3.2, dollar demand of $68.0 billion, and indirect bidder participation of 40%.

The only items on the economic calendar included a June Treasury budget that showed a $68.4 billion deficit, which is not quite as steep as the $70.0 billion deficit that had been expected, on average, by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com. There was also a Trade Balance for May that showed a $42.3 billion deficit when a $39.4 billion deficit had been expected, on average, by a sample of economists.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+2.6%), Consumer Discretionary (+2.5%), Materials (+2.2%), Industrials (+1.9%), Tech (+1.4%), Energy (+1.2%), Telecom (+0.9%), Consumer Staples (+0.8%), Health Care (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: (None) DJ30 +146.75 NASDAQ +43.67 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +3.4% SP400 +2.4% SP500 +16.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2244/2.31 bln/442 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2644/1.13 bln/387

3:45 pm : The rally in the equity markets supported commodity prices today, led by a 2% rally in the energy index. Aug crude oil today, closed up 2.9% to settle at $77.15 per barrel, its best level in around two weeks. Aug natural gas finished the day lower by 0.3% to $4.379 per MMBtu.

This morning's downgrade of Portugal's debt, by Moody's, sent precious metals higher, as the sector finished higher by 1.6%. Aug gold futures rallied for 1.2% to close at $1213.50 per ounce, while Sept silver gained 1.9% to close at $18.257 per ounce. DJ30 +183.83 NASDAQ +46.75 SP500 +19.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2221/1.9 bln/464 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2671/830.7 mln/361

3:00 pm : Stocks are little changed from earlier levels, but only time will tell if the sideways drift is a set up for some dramatic action in the final hour.

The final hour also has market participants gearing up for the latest results from Intel (INTC 21.08, +0.51). The consensus on Wall Street is that the semiconductor bellwether will bring in earnings of $0.43 per share on revenue of roughly $10.3 billion. DJ30 +172.18 NASDAQ +44.83 SP500 +18.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2200/1.72 bln/449 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2666/701 mln/351

2:30 pm : The stock market has spent the past hour or so in a relatively narrow trading range. Though that doesn't make for much excitement, this session's impressive gains remain in place.

Trading volume is unimpressive, however. Low volume is often suggestive that many are still on the sidelines and that the market's movements have been made more dramatic by the relative impact of fewer trades. DJ30 +148.71 NASDAQ +33.68 SP500 +15.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2136/1.56 bln/503 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2577/634 mln/404

2:00 pm : Stocks have gradually drifted off of their session highs, but gains remain very strong. In turn, stocks are still on track for their sixth straight gain. That stretch fomes after stocks had fallen in nine out of 10 sessions.

Despite a broadly positive tone to trade, utilities stocks have succumbed to a recent fit of selling. As such, the sector is now down 0.2%. It is the only major sector in the S&P 500 not in the red.

Just released, the Treasury's budget statement for June showed a $68.4 billion deficit, which is not quite as steep as the $70.0 billion deficit that had been expected, on average, by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com. The deficit for June is also considerably more narrow than the $94.3 billion deficit that had been booked in the prior month. DJ30 +139.78 NASDAQ +30.33 SP500 +13.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2131/1.45 bln/487 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2550/580 mln/435

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 10-year Treasuries were released at 1:00 PM ET.

The auction was met with fairly weak dollar demand. The bid-to-cover came in at 3.1 with dollar demand of $64.9 billion and an indirect bidder participation rate of 42%. The prior auction produced a bid-to-cover of 3.2 and dollar demand of $68.0 billion, while indirect bidders came in at 40%. During the past six auctions, the average bid-to-cover was 3.2 and dollar demand was $69.9 billion with indirect bidder participation of 37%.

Stocks didn't show much reaction to the numbers, but Treasuries ticked lower. DJ30 +147.20 NASDAQ +31.59 SP500 +14.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2128/1.35 bln/478 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2554/532 mln/413

1:00 pm : Broad-based buying on the back of some upbeat corporate news has sent the stock market sharply higher, but participants are a bit slow to push stocks past a key technical hurdle.

The S&P 500 has been up in excess of 1% for almost the entire session and even poked above its 50-day moving average of 1096. Though that was the first time since early May that the broad market measure moved above its 50-day moving average, stocks haven't been able to hold their ground above that key line.

The tone to trade is still broadly positive. With a 2.4% gain, materials stocks are up the most. Their strength comes on the heels of an upbeat report from Dow component Alcoa (AA 11.05, +0.18), which unofficially started earnings season last evening with better-than-expected earnings and revenue.

Fellow Dow component Chevron (CVX 73.18, +1.33) also announced that it expects to see sequential earnings growth, which is tantamount to upside guidance given what analysts had already forecast.

Tech stocks were laggards in the early going, but the sector has since swung to a 1.2% gain with help from Intel (INTC 20.96, +0.39), which is scheduled to report its latest quarterly results after the close. In contrast, Apple (AAPL 250.01, -7.28) continues to grapple with sellers amid concerns about the company's latest iPhone.

A rally by the euro has helped support this session's positive tone. The currency is now up 0.9% against the greenback. That puts it at a fractionally improved two-month high.

The euro's climb has been gradual. It had actually trailed the dollar overnight, but began to improve its position in the wake of Greece's successful debt auction, which overshadowed a not-so-surprising downgrade of Portugal's debt by Moody's.

Results from an auction of 10-year Treasury Notes are due imminently. The yield on the benchmark Note is currently at 3.1% ahead of the announcement. DJ30 +155.22 NASDAQ +34.60 SP500 +15.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2135/1.23 bln/460 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2607/480 mln/352

12:30 pm : The materials sector has surged ahead to trade with a 2.7% gain. Each one of the sector's 32 members is in higher ground. Weyerhaeuser (WY 41.12, +2.26) is a primary leader a day after it issued a special dividend, while Airgas (ARG 64.92, +0.07) is a laggard.

Financials are in a close second, in terms of strongest sector gains. They are currently up a collective 2.5% amid leadership from diversified financial services stocks (+3.1%). DJ30 +163.40 NASDAQ +37.86 SP500 +17.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2125/1.12 bln/439 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2619/439 mln/335

12:00 pm : Stocks recently pushed to fresh session highs, but the move proved momentary as the major equity averages have since eased back. Still, gains remain robust.

Strength among stocks has put pressure on Treasuries. More specifically, the benchmark 10-year Note is down 10 ticks so that its yield is now at 3.1%. Just last week the yield had been below 3.0% for the first time in many months. Fixed income traders will pay close attention to results from a $21 billion auction of 10-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET for indications of demand. DJ30 +155.07 NASDAQ +35.14 SP500 +16.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2100/1.01 bln/438 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2604/385 mln/330

11:30 am : The euro has rallied to a 0.8% gain against the greenback. That move puts the euro at $1.269, which puts the currency back near its best levels of the past two months. Still, the euro is down more than 11% against the dollar year to date.

As for stocks, the major averages remain near session highs. Gains are even more robust among small-caps and mid-caps, which are up with collective gains of 2.0% and 1.7%, respectively. DJ30 +140.92 NASDAQ +29.40 SP500 +14.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2037/866 mln/469 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2549/323 mln/338

11:00 am : Broad-based strength continues to keep the stock market up with a gain of more than 1%. Financials are among the strongest sources of support as they extend their advance so that the sector is now up 2.0%. That makes for the financial sector's sixth straight advance -- it is up more than 7% month-to-date.

With a 0.7% gain, tech stocks are still relative laggards. Despite that, a few large-cap tech names have taken the Nasdaq up more than 1%. Intel (INTC 20.96, +0.39) and Google (GOOG 485.58, +9.75) are high-volume leaders in the tech-rich index. DJ30 +128.88 NASDAQ +24.07 SP500 +12.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1984/733 mln/486 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2505/268 mln/364

10:30 am : Weakness in the US Dollar Index, which is trading near today's session lows, along with broad market strength is giving a boost to commodities this morning, most of which are trading near session highs.

August crude oil was trading modestly lower heading into the morning session. Crude hit morning lows of $74.25 per barrel, gathered strength and rose out of negative territory. The dollar index then began pulling back off of overnight highs of 84.557, which pushed crude higher. The energy component hit session highs of $77.13 per barrel in recent trade and is currently 2.5% higher at $76.82 per barrel.

August natural gas trended just above the unchanged line overnight, but dipped into the red for a brief moment just before 8:30am ET, touching session lows of $4.38 per MMBtu. From there, natural gas rallied sharply into positive territory until hitting new session highs of $4.49 per MMBtu. Natural gas has since pulled back slightly and is trading 1% higher at $4.43 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are also showing notable strength this morning on the dollar index's weakness. August gold and September silver moved into positive territory during the overnight session and both have remained there since. Gold is now 1.4% higher at $1215.40 per ounce, while silver is 2% higher at $18.28 per ounce. DJ30 +137.36 NASDAQ +24.85 SP500 +13.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1975/568.1 mln/415 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2532/202.2 mln/282

10:00 am : Stocks are still up with strong gains, but the morning move has lost momentum. The slowdown comes as the S&P 500 starts to eye its 50-day moving average of 1095. The S&P 500 hasn't been above the key technical line since early May.

Nonetheless, the early gains have caused volatility to cool. Specifically, the Volatility Index is down almost 4% in its eighth straight decline.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+1.8%), Industrials (+1.8%), Financials (+1.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.6%), Energy (+1.0%), Telecom (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.9%), Consumer Staples (+0.8%), Utilities (+0.7%), Tech (+0.6%)
Declining Sectors: (None) DJ30 +127.60 NASDAQ +22.77 SP500 +12.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1925/373 mln/370 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2490/138 mln/262

09:45 am : The stock market has jumped out to a strong start amid broad-based support. Of the 10 major sectors, four of them are up in excess of 1%.

Early gains are strongest among materials stocks, which are currently up 1.6% after Dow component Alcoa (AA 11.09, +0.22) posted last evening strong quarterly results. Tech stocks are lagging, though. They are up just 0.3% as Apple (AAPL 250.18, -7.11) continues to grapple with selling pressure that started in the prior session. DJ30 +98.31 NASDAQ +16.19 SP500 +9.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1846/250 mln/400 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2402/99 mln/306

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.50. Buying remains strong ahead of the open, so much that the stock market looks like it is poised for an opening gain of roughly 1%. A bounce by the euro to a morning high has helped keep the positive tone intact - the euro is now up 0.3% versus the dollar. The euro's strength comes in the wake of a successful debt auction by Greece and Moody's not-so-surprising downgrade of Portugal's debt. Strong and steady gains among Europe's major bourses have also helped perpetuate a positive tone to premarket trade. Corporate news has lent support, too. Specifically, Dow component Alcoa (AA) unofficially started earnings season last evening with better-than-expected earnings and revenue on improved demand. Fellow Dow component Chevron (CVX) also announced that it expects to see sequential improvement in its earnings. The announcements set the stage for Intel (INTC), also a Dow component, which will report its latest quarterly results after the close.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.80. Domestic equity averages remain on track for a strong start. Meanwhile, Europe's major bourses continue to sport strong gains. Their advance comes after Greece held a successful debt auction that brought about a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.6. News of a downgrade on Portugal's sovereign debt rating by Moody's hasn't hampered gains, but that's mostly because there was little surprise to the decision since Moody's had the highest rating of the three major agencies on Portugal's debt. The EuroStoxx 50 is up 1.8% at the moment. Germany's DAX is up 1.8% and led by consumer goods stocks (+4.0%) and industrial plays (+2.7%). In France, the CAC has climbed to a 1.9% as all 40 of its components stage gains. Total (TOT) is a primary source of leadership. In Britain, the FTSE is up 2.0%. Of its 102 members, only British Sky Broadcasting is in the red, while BP Plc (BP) is a leader once again. As for economic data, the United Kingdom's CPI for June made a slightly higher-than-expected monthly climb of 0.1% and the Retail Price Index came in modestly better-than-expected at 224.1. In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite dropped 1.6%. There was news that the China Banking Regulatory Commission refuted reports that it would relax credit controls. There was also news of reaffirmed efforts to slow property investment and steel production. Basic materials stocks dropped 2.3% to log the worst losses. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.2%. Consumer goods were weakest with a 1.9% loss, but tech showed strength by advancing 0.6%. As for Japan's Nikkei, it fell 0.1%. Fanuc LTD was a primary source of weakness, but telecom stocks showed strength and staged a 1.9% gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.00. Stock futures remain near their morning highs, generally unfazed by news that the Trade Balance for May came in with a $42.3 billion deficit. A $39.4 billion deficit had been expected, on average, by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com following the $40.3 billion deficit that had been posted in the prior month. The U.S. dollar has also shown little response to the data. It is currently flat against a basket of foreign currencies. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has made its way to a morning high of 3.08%. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.00. Futures for the S&P 500 have a strong lead over fair value. Their climb coincided with a move by the euro that erased its loss against the dollar. The euro is now down just 0.1% against the greenback. Meanwhile, Europe's major bourses are up sharply after a debt auction from Greece. News that analysts at Moody's downgraded the debt of Portugal seems to have had little impact. As for Asia, its major market averages logged losses in their latest round of trade. Some reports attribute those losses to China's reaffirmed efforts to control real estate investment and slow steel production. Dow component Alcoa (AA) announced last evening that stronger end-market demand helped it bring in earnings of $0.13 per share on $5.2 billion in revenue. Both lines bested what Wall Street had expected. Once again, there isn't much on the economic calendar - the Trade Balance for May is due at the bottom of the hour and the Treasury's monthly budget statement for June is due at 2:00 PM ET.

06:25 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.50.

06:25 am : Nikkei...9537.23...-10.90...-0.10%. Hang Seng...20431.06...-36.40...-0.20%.

06:25 am : FTSE...5242.00...+75.00...+1.50%. DAX...6161.79...+84.50...+1.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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