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 Post subject: July 12th Monday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +6.10
PostPosted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:02 pm 
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Stocks Advance as Technology Shares Rise Before Earnings:
July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Courtney Donohoe reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. Stocks rose, adding to gains from the biggest weekly rally in a year for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as analyst upgrades of technology companies boosted optimism before the start of the earnings season. Bloomberg's Pimm Fox also speaks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vv4_5g5qQXo

4:30 pm : Stocks spent the final few hours of the session stuck in choppy trade to essentially finish flat for the day. The lackluster action came despite strength in the tech sector.

The major averages showed little clear direction on Monday. Large-cap tech issues provided early leadership and traded with steady strength throughout the session. In turn, the tech sector, which accounts for almost one-fifth of the total weight of the S&P 500, settled 0.7% higher. The broader market failed to follow, though. Instead, it remained range bound into the close and finished only fractionally higher.

Materials were mired in weakness for almost all of the session. The sector sank to a 1.1% loss as steel stocks (-3.7%) and diversified metals and miners plays (-4.1%) were dropped ahead of the latest quarterly report from Dow component Alcoa (AA 10.87, -0.07). Though Alcoa's announcement marks an unofficial start to earnings season, reporting doesn't get going in earnest until next week. As has been the case in recent quarters, most participants will place plenty of significance on corporate forecasts since such outlooks help diminish the uncertainty of coming quarters.

Such uncertainty seemed to keep many on the sidelines. In turn, this session's trading volume was paltry in that hardly 850 million shares were traded on the NYSE. That's the lowest total this year.

Those that did trade didn't have any real cues ahead of Alcoa's announcement. The only item of wide interest was news that Aon (AON 35.62, -2.72) will pay a mix of cash and stock to acquire Hewitt Associates (HEW 46.79, +11.39) for $50.00 per share, which marks a premium of roughly 40% over HEW's closing price last week. The news sent shares of HEW to a fresh 52-week high, but dropped shares of AON to a new 52-week low.

The latest Treasury auction had no real impact on stocks. However, Treasuries gradually gave up their gains after the release of the auction's results. The $35 billion auction of 3-year Notes drew a yield of 1.06% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.2, which is above the 12-auction average of 3.0. Indirect bidders accounted for about 41%, but that is below averages of recent auctions.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-1.1%), Industrials (-0.5%), Health Care (-0.2%), Energy (-0.1%), Telecom (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Financials DJ30 +18.24 NASDAQ +1.91 NQ100 +0.3% R2K -1.2% SP400 -0.5% SP500 +0.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 808/1.78 bln/1865 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1072/854 mln/1896

3:30 pm : Commodities had a generally weak session. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index fell to a 0.9% loss.

Oil suffered some one of the most pronounced losses. The commodity dropped to a 1.5% loss at $74.95 per barrel after it had opened pit trade with a modest gain.

Natural gas was weak early on, but failed to sustain some intraday gains. It closed at $4.39 per MMBtu, down just 0.2% for the session.

As for precious metals, both gold and silver prices were sent 0.9% lower. In turn, gold closed pit trade at $1198.70 per ounce and silver settled at $17.92 per ounce. DJ30 +12.07 NASDAQ +3.06 SP500 +0.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 916/1.48 bln/1740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1084/630 mln/1877

3:00 pm : Stocks are little changed from earlier levels, so the broader market continues to balance the neutral line. It has spent the past few hours trading in a range of just a few points.

The lackluster action comes even though the tech sector has been a steady source of support. Specifically, tech stocks have spent virtually the entire session in higher ground and they are currently up 0.6%.

Participation has been paltry this session. Only an hour remains before the closing bell sounds and only a little more than a half billion shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE so far. DJ30 +5.37 NASDAQ +1.22 SP500 -0.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 863/1.33 bln/1761 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1056/555 mln/1905

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 is back in negative territory with a slight loss. Though the move lower has been by a moderate degree, weakness is rather widespread with seven of the 10 major sectors showing losses.

Materials stocks continue to trade with the worst losses. The sector is down 1.3%. That's almost twice the loss of the industrials sector, which is the next worst performing sector. DJ30 -2.88 NASDAQ -0.88 SP500 -1.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 794/1.22 bln/1822 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 922/505 mln/2015

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 has poked into positive territory. It had spent close to three hours in the red.

Small-caps and mid-cap stocks remain in the red, though. Specifically, the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is down 0.8% and the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is off by 0.3%. DJ30 +15.89 NASDAQ +4.63 SP500 +0.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 901/1.13 bln/1708 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1088/465 mln/1822

1:30 pm : The stock market continues to flirt with the neutral line, but has so far struggled to get back into higher ground.

Tech remains its primary source of strength. The sector is now up 0.7%.

Of the other 10 sectors, utilities and consumer staples are the only others to trade with gains. Both sectors are up 0.2%. DJ30 +4.65 NASDAQ +0.37 SP500 -0.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 829/1.05 bln/1757 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1005/427 mln/1903

1:05 pm : Despite strength among tech stocks, which collectively make up the largest sector by market weight, the broader market has struggled to find its direction today.

An early gain was quickly reversed by a broad-based selling effort. Even the Nasdaq, which had been up roughly 0.8% at its session high, was sent to a loss. Several large-cap tech plays like Google (GOOG 475.42, +7.93) and Intel (INTC 20.53, +0.29) have continued to outperform, but Apple (AAPL 257.44, -2.18) has been weak. CNBC gave word that Consumer Report cannot recommend the iPhone 4 due to the handset's problem with reception. Overall, tech stocks are up 0.4% at the moment.

Materials stocks remain under stiff pressure. The sector is down 1.2% as steel stocks (-3.7%) and diversified metals and miners (-4.6%) retreat ahead of the latest figures from Dow component Alcoa (AA 10.84, -0.10), which is scheduled to report after the close. Most market participants will take their cues from the company's outlook.

Energy stocks are also under pressure, no thanks to lower oil prices, which are presently down 1.5% to $74.90 per barrel. While the energy sector is down 0.6% at the moment, embattled energy giant BP Plc (BP 36.71, +2.66) is up for the fifth straight session as the company progresses in its efforts to stem the flow of oil from its leaking rig in the Gulf of Mexico. There has also been some renewed speculation about a takeover.

In some official merger news, Aon (AON 35.50, -2.84) announced that it will acquire Hewitt Associates (HEW 46.77, +11.37) for $50.00 per share in cash and stock. The purchase price marks a premium of roughly 40% over HEW's closing price last week.

Following a modest gain in the early going and a midmorning retreat, the stock market is back at the neutral line and looking for direction.

Both stocks and Treasuries have shown little response to results from a $35 billion auction of 3-year Notes. The auction drew a yield of 1.06% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.2, which is above the 12-auction average of 3.0. Indirect bidders accounted for about 41%, but that is below recent averages. DJ30 -6.66 NASDAQ -2.12 SP500 -2.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 739/984 mln/1828 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 860/395 mln/2068

12:30 pm : Oil prices continue to come under pressure. In fact, the commodity had recently been as low as $74.52 per barrel, but it has since improved its position so that it now trades at $75 per barrel with a 1.4% loss.

Lower oil prices have adversely affected energy stocks, which are currently down a collective 0.5% to represent one of the weaker sectors of the session. However, shares of embattled energy giant BP Plc (BP 36.83, +2.78) are up sharply for their fifth straight gain. The latest leg higher comes amid renewed speculation about takeover attempts and progress in stemming the flow of oil from the company's leaking rig in the Gulf of Mexico. DJ30 -7.12 NASDAQ -3.37 SP500 -2.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 729/898 mln/1830 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 869/355 mln/2036

12:00 pm : Though many large-cap tech plays have traded with relative strength this session, Apple (AAPL 256.00, -3.62) is down more than 1% to a fresh session low. According to CNBC, Consumer Report cannot recommend the iPhone 4 due to the handset's problem with reception. Despite its weakness this session, shares of AAPL are still up more than 20% year-to-date. That puts the stock among this year's best performers by percent gained. DJ30 -22.82 NASDAQ -8.97 SP500 -4.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 642/781 mln/1896 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 717/314 mln/2174

11:30 am : Stocks have rebounded a bit from their recent retreat, but weakness remains widespread as declining issues outnumber advancers by more than 4-to-1 in the S&P 500.

The turn from a positive tone in the opening minutes of trade to something more negative has sent Treasuries higher. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now just above 3.0%.

The dollar has held firm to its gain. It is currently up 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies. The dollar is up more than 8% year-to-date. Most of that move has come against the euro, which is actually down more than 12% against the greenback in 2010. DJ30 -19.53 NASDAQ -8.24 SP500 -4.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 659/695 mln/1857 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 672/281 mln/2181

11:00 am : The stock market has retreated into the red. It now trades with a modest loss.

Materials stocks are under sharp pressure, though. The sector is now down 1.3% as steel plays like U.S. Steel (X 41.16, -1.72) and AK Steel (AKS 12.70, -0.68) drop precipitously.

Tech plays now make up the only sector to trade in positive territory. They are up just 0.2%, collectively. DJ30 -28.69 NASDAQ -6.21 SP500 -4.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 716/556 mln/1760 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 737/225 mln/2058

10:30 am : Strength in the US Dollar Index this morning is providing mixed results in commodities. Precious metals are only slightly lower, while the energy complex is mixed.

August crude oil has spent most of today's session in negative territory. Around the open of pit trading, crude moved near overnight highs of $76.43 per barrel, but is currently trading down 0.5% at $75.68 per barrel.

August natural gas chopped around the unchanged line overnight before falling to new session lows of $4.35 per MMBtu at the open of pit trading. After rallying back out of the red, natural gas has since pulled back to the flat line and is now trading just above that level at $4.41 per MMBtu.

Strength in the dollar index has kept precious metals lower today. Currently, August gold is trading 0.5% lower at $1204.00 per ounce, while September silver is 0.4% lower at $18.00 per ounce. DJ30 -8.56 NASDAQ +2.98 SP500 -1.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 919/402.6 mln/1488 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 892/164.6 mln/1803

10:00 am : The broader market is in higher ground, but its movement in the early going has been a bit choppy. Tech stocks, which are up 1.0% as a group, have been a key source of support, though. At 19% market weight, tech represents the largest sector in the S&P 500.

Health care stocks, which have a market weight of roughly 11% in the S&P 500, make up the worst performing sector in the broader market. The sector has fallen to a 0.4% loss as managed care stocks (-0.7%) and life science tools plays (-0.7) come under pressure. DJ30 +7.14 NASDAQ +12.46 SP500 +1.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1204/295 mln/1130 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1202/125 mln/1443

09:45 am : Large-cap tech plays like Google (GOOG 476.25, +8.76), Intel (INTC 20.58, +0.34), and Cisco (CSCO 22.92, +0.22) are up markedly in the first few minutes of trade. Their strength has swung the Nasdaq up to a strong gain, such that it currently sports an impressive lead over its counterparts.

As for commodities, oil prices are in the red after opening pit trade with a modest gain. The energy component was last quoted with a 0.3% loss at $75.85 per barrel. DJ30 +7.11 NASDAQ +14.60 SP500 +0.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1166/151 mln/976 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1287/71 mln/1276

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. A tepid start to trade looks to be in order as a lack of headlines keeps participants on the sidelines protecting last week's gains. There is also an element of caution to premarket trade as market participants prepare for another round of quarterly earnings results and forecasts - earnings season gets its unofficial start with the latest numbers from Dow component Alcoa (AA) after the close. Bigger names are due later this week, but the bulk of reports won't begin to be released until next week. For now, though, support has been shown for the dollar, which is currently up 0.4% against a basket of competing currencies. Commodities, as a group, are trading with little direction. Longer term Treasuries are up just a few ticks ahead of the opening bell and results from an auction of 3-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.00. Stock futures continue to work their way closer to the neutral line. Meanwhile, the commodities complex is trading with little direction this morning, such that the CRB Commodity Index is currently down just 0.1%. As for individual plays, oil prices are up a tepid 0.3% to $76.35 per barrel in its first few minutes of pit trade. Gold prices are currently down 0.3% to $1205.80 per ounce.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50. The euro continues to trail the dollar, but all three of Europe's major bourses are up a modest 0.3% gain at the moment. In France, the CAC is currently led by Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). France Telecom is a laggard, though. In a similar vein, Deutsche Telekom is a source of weakness to Germany's DAX, but the German bourse has been propped up by Merck KGAA and Volkswagen. BP Plc (BP) is once more a leader in Britain's FTSE. The embattled energy giant has benefited from renewed takeover speculation.

In Asia, the Shanghai Composite finished its first session of the week with a 0.8% gain. It was led by banking issues. Several insurers showed weakness, though. Such was also the case in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng mustered a 0.4% gain. In Japan, the Nikkei fell to a 0.4% loss. Fast Retailing was a primary source of weakness, which more than offset strength in exporters like Honda Motor (HMC) and Sony (SNE).

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. Stock futures are under a mild fit of pressure as overseas markets move in lackluster fashion and the euro slides to a 0.5% loss against the greenback. News this morning is quite slow, though Aon (AON) announced that it will acquire Hewitt Associates (HEW) for $50.00 per share in cash and stock. Shares of HEW closed last week at $35.40 per share. In other corporate news, Weyerhaeuser (WY) announced a special dividend of either stock or cash in addition to its regular quarterly dividend. Total cash payments will be limited to $560 million of the total distribution. Shares of WY were also upgraded by analysts at UBS. Dow component Alcoa (AA) unofficially sets earnings season in motion with its latest quarterly report after the close. Reports won't pick up in earnest until next week, though. There are no economic items of broad significance due today, but results from an auction of 3-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET.

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00.

06:18 am : Nikkei...9548.11...-37.20...-0.40%. Hang Seng...20467.43...+88.80...+0.40%.

06:18 am : FTSE...5144.57...+11.60...+0.20%. DAX...6074.26...+9.00...+0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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