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 Post subject: July 7th Wednesday 2010 Emini TF points (no trades)
PostPosted: Sun Jul 11, 2010 4:06 pm 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from Youtube Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=562

Quote:
Today's results are No Trades (see above #FuturesTrades log). As stated in yesterday's log...family friends are visiting from New Zealand. Thus, no trading today for me and I'll be back to trading tomorrow (Thursday).

Trading Tip: Price action changes from one trading day to the next trading day. Therefore, you should not be using the exact same position size as if price action is always the same.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about any thing related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=116&t=709

Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.
------------------------------

The market summaries below are courtesy of Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance. gm

U.S. Stocks Rise, Indexes Gain Most in More Than a Month
(Bloomberg Youtube Video)

Bank Stocks Ignite Big Rally
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
July 7, 2010: 5:06 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks surged Wednesday, with the Dow jumping as much as 283 points, as investors came back after the recent bloodletting, spurred on by State Street's improved earnings forecast.

A stronger euro helped propel commodity shares, cooling some worries about the European debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 275 points, or 2.8%, its biggest one-day point and percentage gain since June 10.

The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 32 points, or 3.1% for its biggest one-day point and percentage gain since May 27. The Nasdaq (COMP) composite gained 65 points, or 3.1%, its biggest one-day point and percentage gain since May 10.

"A lot of the optimism today was fueled by State Street's pre-announcement," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. "Although it's not a company that will be affected by the financial reform package, it's still a financial company and that's helping the sector."

State Street gained nearly 10% after it lifted its quarterly earnings forecast. The KBW Bank (BKX) index, which includes State Street, gained 5.6%.

Stocks were also bouncing in the aftermath of a sell-off that sent the major indexes all down by more than 15% since the late April highs. The indexes lost 5% last week alone and closed at 8-month lows.

Worries about the U.S. economy heading toward a double-dip recession, particularly amid the fallout in Europe, were key to the decline that was stemmed Tuesday.

"We got very oversold on a technical level and so you're seeing a bounce," said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams.

"Since there's nothing happening on the economic front and since the volume is pretty light, we could see this bounce continue for a few days," he said.

Whether the bounce becomes a bigger rally will depend on whether the S&P 500 can hang on to some key technical levels it is flirting with, he said.

The market's ability to move higher will also depend on the results of the European bank "stress tests" as well as what kind of profit guidance U.S. companies give as they begin reporting quarterly results in the next few weeks.

"I think investors have been so focused on news with a glass half-empty bent that they have forgotten there are some positive developments out there," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

"I think State Street reminded people that the earnings are coming out soon and maybe things aren't going to be so bad," Luschini said.
Too much confusion for investors

Quarterly results: State Street (STT, Fortune 500) said it will report operating earnings of 92 cents per share on revenue of $2.2 billion in the just-completed quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting it to report a profit of 74 cents per share on revenue of $2.2 billion.

The regional bank also said it was taking a one-time after-tax charge of 50 cents per share to provide cash for trust funds that are run by its money-management unit, State Street Global Advisors.

On the downside, Family Dollar Stores (FDO, Fortune 500) forecast fiscal fourth-quarter earnings in a range that was short of analysts' estimates, due to the mixed economic outlook and the impact of competitor Wal-Mart Stores.

Among other stock movers, truckers and railroads surged, lifting the Dow Jones transportation (TRAN) average by 3.9%.

Gains were broad based, with all 30 Dow components rallying. In addition to financial components such as JPMorgan Chase, other big Dow gainers included Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) and 3M (MMM, Fortune 500).
0:00 /1:57Financial planner: Calm in the storm

Consumer: The number of Americans behind on their credit-card payments fell to an 8-year low in the first quarter, the American Bankers Association reported Wednesday.

A sustained period of high unemployment and worries about the recovery have caused investors to spend less and banks to lend less.

World markets: European markets gained, with Britain's FTSE 100 rising 1%, Germany's DAX advancing 0.9% and France's CAC 40 climbing 1.8%.

Most Asian markets ended lower, with Japan's Nikkei falling 0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng off 1.1% and the Shanghai Composite rising 0.5%.

Commodities: U.S. light crude oil for August delivery rose $2.93 to $74.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery gained $7.90 to $1,203 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 2.98% from 2.93% late Tuesday. Debt prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth: Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by six to one on volume of 1.34 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners almost four to one on volume of 2.18 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Steady buying gave the S&P 500 a gain of more than 3%, its best single-session percentage advance in more than a month, and put the Dow back above 10,000. The climb came without any clear catalyst.

A positive mood permeated trade for the entire session, even though there weren't any major company announcements or economic releases to drive buyers to action. The lack of headlines initially kept a cap on trading volume, but the stock market's upward momentum only made momentary pauses during its ascent, such that stocks finished at session highs.

The advance made for the stock market's second straight gain -- stocks haven't booked back-to-back gains in over two weeks. More than 95% of the names in the S&P 500 finished the latest round of trade in higher ground. Of the stock market's major sectors, financials made the most impressive move with a 4.4% surge.

Airline stocks ascended to a 5.7 gain, as measured by the Amex Airline Index. US Airways (LCC 9.32, +1.24) was a top performer. The company's only announcement was that its load factor for June hit 86.9%, which is in step with the 86.8% June load factor that was reported by AMR Corp (AMR 6.74, +0.34).

The Volatility Index (VIX) fell for its fourth straight session. A 9% drop today has it down approximately 22% over the past four sessions.

Trading volume was underwhelming in the early going, but it picked up as the session wore on. In the end, volume on the NYSE totaled just about 1.34 billion shares, which is between its 50-day moving average of 1.51 billion and its 200-day moving average of 1.24 billion.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+4.4%), Materials (+3.9%), Tech (+3.7%), Industrials (+3.6%), Energy (+3.2%), Utilities (+3.1%), Consumer Discretionary (+2.8%), Consumer Staples (+2.0%), Health Care (+2.0%), Telecom (+0.4%)
Declining Sectors: (None) DJ30 +274.66 NASDAQ +65.59 NQ100 +3.2% R2K +3.7% SP400 +3.5% SP500 +32.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2080/2.16 bln/588 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2650/1.34 bln/431

3:35 pm : Grains, which rallied for 3.6%, led all sectors of the CRB Commodity Index today. Sept wheat futures closed the session higher by 4.5% to $5.30 per bushel. Sept soybeans gained 3.6% to settle at $9.32 per bushel.

The rally in equities lifted Aug crude oil futures today, which closed higher by 2.9% to $74.07 per barrel. Aug natural gas futures fell 1.9% to $4.57 per MMBtu, but remain largely range bound.

Aug gold finished the session higher by 0.7% to $1198.90 per ounce while Sept silver gained 1.3% to settle at $18.00 per ounce. Both metals erased overnight losses to finish the day in positive territory.
DJ30 +231.59 NASDAQ +51.78 SP500 +26.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1996/1.7 bln/655 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2584/854.9 mln/479

3:00 pm : Stocks are sporting very strong gains as they head into the final hour of trade. The underlying tone has been broadly positive since the opening bell. Should strength hold steady, stocks will book their best single-session performance of the past two weeks. DJ30 +178.27 NASDAQ +43.39 SP500 +22.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1934/1.51 bln/702 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2526/765 mln/535

2:30 pm : The broader market is drifting along at session highs with a gain of more than 2%. Meanwhile, airline stocks have ascended to a 4.6% gain, collectively. US Airways (LCC 9.16, +1.08) is a top performer in the group after it announced that its load factor for June hit 86.9%. That was in step with the 86.8% June load factor that was reported by AMR Corp (AMR 6.72, +0.32) reports a June load factor of 86.8%. DJ30 +183.38 NASDAQ +40.87 SP500 +21.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1903/1.37 bln/711 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2517/685 mln/518

2:00 pm : The stock market has steadied its ascent, but it is still at a session high with a 2% gain.

Crude oil prices are also at session highs. The commodity was last quoted at $74.20 per barrel with a 3.1% gain. Natural gas prices have moved in the other direction, though; the commodity is currently priced 1.9% lower at $4.59 per MMBtu. DJ30 +184.90 NASDAQ +39.47 SP500 +21.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1906/1.25 bln/701 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2492/624 mln/533

1:30 pm : The stock market had been relatively range bound for about two hours, but it recently moved another leg higher. It now trades at its best level of the day.

Though the recent climb has been broad based, financial stocks and materials stocks have benefited the most. Both sectors are now up nearly 3%. Between the 111 stocks that make up the two sectors, only E*TRADE (ETFC 11.42, -0.23), NYSE Euronext (NYX 26.94, -0.27), and Vulcan Materials (VMC 43.56, -0.75) are in negative territory. DJ30 +183.23 NASDAQ +36.61 SP500 +20.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1860/1.14 bln/717 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2467/567 mln/532

1:00 pm : Despite a lack of news flow or otherwise apparent trading catalysts, stocks are up sharply this session. Share volume has been unimpressive, though.

Advancing issues outnumber decliners by 10-to-1 in the S&P 500, though there isn't any apparent cause for the overly optimistic tone of trade. In fact, overseas markets had been lower when the U.S. opened for trade.

Action has turned a bit choppy in the past couple of hours, but in contrast to the prior session the broad-based advance has held strong into early afternoon trade. Stocks had actually surrendered a gain of nearly 2% before a late bid helped stocks close the prior session with their first gain in a week.

Financials and materials stocks have been out in front of the broader market for most of this session. The two sectors are up 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Within their respective sectors, regional banks (+3.0%) and consumer finance stocks (+3.0%), steel stocks (+4.7%) and diversified metals and miners plays (+5.0%) are the best performers.

Strength in the broader market continues to keep down the Volatility Index (VIX), which is currently almost 7% lower.

While current gains are impressive, participation has been underwhelming. So far, only a half billion shares has exchanged hands on the NYSE. Whether that is the result of few headlines providing cues to traders or lingering diffidence in the wake of the stock market's recent losing streak, light participation is often associated with a lack of conviction. DJ30 +147.28 NASDAQ +28.65 SP500 +16.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1746/1.02 bln/806 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2365/505 bln/620

12:30 pm : There haven't been any news items to induce any swings in the S&P 500, so the benchmark index has spent the past two hours chopping along in a five-point range. The generally sideways action has kept the stock market's strong gains intact, though. DJ30 +140.93 NASDAQ +27.55 SP500 +15.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/945 mln/816 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2367/465 mln/614

12:00 pm : Trade has become a bit choppy in the past hour. The action has pulled stocks off of session highs to their lowest level of the past hour. Still, broad-based gains remain.

Strength in the broader market continues to keep down volatility, such that the Volatility Index (VIX) is down 7%.

Despite strong gains by equities and a sharp slide by the VIX, Treasuries haven't seen much pressure. Specifically, the benchmark 10-year Note is down just a few ticks, while the 5-year Note is actually up one tick and the 2-year Note is flat. Their yields stand at 2.94%, 1.75%, and 0.60%, respectively. DJ30 +116.56 NASDAQ +23.21 SP500 +12.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1632/844 mln/879 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2245/410 mln/678

11:30 am : The stock market has eased back a bit, but it continues to sport an impressive gain. Whether the dip is the start of a more meaningful downturn remains uncertain, but it was about this same time in the prior session that the stock market began to gradually give up a gain of nearly 2% so that it dipped into negative territory in the final leg of trade. Stocks were able to reclaim some of their gains into the close, though. That gave the stock market its first positive finish in a week. DJ30 +125.60 NASDAQ +25.45 SP500 +14.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/731 mln/764 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2304/355 mln/575

11:00 am : The stock market has worked its way even higher so that it is now above the best levels that were registered in the prior session. The advance remains broadly positive as seven of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 sport gains in excess of 1% (telecom -0.8%, health care +0.6%, and consumer staples +0.9% are relative laggards).

Trading volume is a bit weak this morning. That is often considered a sign that there isn't much participation and, consequently, that there is less conviction to the market's moves. What's more, light volume can also exacerbate those moves since individual trades carry a greater relative weight than they would on days with heavier share volume. So far, fewer than 300 million shares have exchanged on the NYSE. DJ30 +142.25 NASDAQ +31.16 SP500 +16.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1817/605 mln/620 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2415/290 mln/471

10:35 am : A sharp pullback in the US Dollar Index over the last two hours has provided strength in select commodities. The weakness drove crude to new session highs and pushed precious metals back near the unchanged line. However, natural gas has been on a downtrend in recent trade.

August crude oil chopped around the unchanged line overnight before hitting session lows of $71.44 per barrel. From there, crude began trending higher and rallied in recent trade due to the dollar index's pullback. Crude is currently near session highs at $73.48 per barrel, up 2.1%.

August natural gas was trading along with crude this morning and hit session highs of $4.78 per MMBtu. However, natural gas reversed sharply just after 8:00am ET, falling into negative territory and to fresh mornings lows of $4.57 per MMBtu. Currently, natural gas is 2.0% lower at $4.59 per MMBtu.

Precious metals have spent most of today's session in the red. Weakness in the dollar index provided price support, pushing both August gold and September silver back near the unchanged line. However, both precious metals remain in negative territory with gold down $1.00 at $1194.1 per ounce and silver down 0.2% at $17.82 per ounce. DJ30 +72.28 NASDAQ +17.52 SP500 +9.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/440.7 mln/729 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2193/211.9 mln/618

10:00 am : The stock market has extended its early advance to a much more healthy gain. Stocks are sill well short of the highs that were set during the prior session.

Financials continue to sport the best overall gains -- the sector is now up 1.3%. However, materials stocks (+1.2%), energy stocks (+1.1%), and tech stocks (+1.1%) have rallied to strong gains of their own.

The early advance has caused the Volatility Index to fall 3% in its fourth straight decline. DJ30 +55.55 NASDAQ +18.52 SP500 +8.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1681/260 mln/596 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2160/125 mln/577

09:45 am : The stock market is up with a solid gain in the first few minutes of trade. Gains are strongest among financial plays, which are up an enviable 1.1%. Such a gain is more than triple that of the broader market.

In contrast, telecom is under sharp pressure. The sector has already shed 1.4%. DJ30 +13.63 NASDAQ +9.34 SP500 +3.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1518/149 mln/656 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1902/76 mln/695

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. News flow remains slow, so market participants are still without any major trading catalysts. Despite that, stock futures have worked their way up to the flat line and the major bourses of Europe have trimmed their losses. Without any announcements from major firms or any economic data, many may hone in on the euro, which is currently down 0.3% against the dollar amid choppy trade. However, the overall lack of headlines could leave many participants on the sidelines this session. An unwillingness to commit to stocks could also stem from a lack of confidence in the broader market after it struggled to book its first gain in a week during the prior session.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80. Stock futures are flat, but oil prices have found support at the open of pit trade to climb 0.9% to $72.65 per barrel. Ordinarily, weekly oil inventory data would be scheduled for release this morning, but since markets were closed Monday in observance of Independence Day the data will be unveiled tomorrow. As for gold prices, the precious metal is currently priced at $1192.20 per ounce, down 0.2% to trade near new one-month lows.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Futures for the S&P 500 have trimmed their losses, but they remain under moderate pressure and Europe's major bourses continue to give back a chunk of the hefty gains that were registered in the prior session. Coming off of a 2.1% gain on Tuesday, Germany's DAX is down 0.9%. The move lower has been led by the likes of Thyssenkrupp and BASF. BMW and Commerzbank are a couple of strong performers, though. In France, the CAC is down 1.2% after a 2.7% spike in the prior session. The downturn has been broad based, but energy giant Total (TOT) is among the primary sources of weakness. Societe Generale remains strong, however. Britain's FTSE has fallen 1.0% after a 2.9% surge yesterday. HSBC (HBC), Rio Tinto (RTP), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) are at the heart of the slide, but BP Plc (BP) has displayed leadership for the third straight session. Action was more mixed in Asia, where the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.5% to extend the 1.9% advance that was recorded in the prior session. China Shanhua and China Pacific led advancing issues, which outnumbered decliners by nearly 5-to-1. Industrial & Commercial Bank and PetroChina (PTR) were among the more notable laggards. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng gave up 1.1%, or nearly all of the 1.2% gain that had been recorded in Tuesday's trade. Of its 43 members, only Tencent Holdings was able to stage a gain. Energy play CNOOC (CEO) and PetroChina were primary sources of weakness. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a little more than 3-to-1 in Japan's Nikkei, which fell to a 0.6% loss after a 0.8% gain in the previous session. OKI Electronic was the worst performer by percent lost (it fell 5.1%), but Fanuc LTD had the worst overall effect on trade. In contrast, Daikin Industries was not only one of the best performers by percent gained (+2.2%), but it was also a primary source of support for the broader market.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. In the prior session the stock market surrendered a near 2% gain, but a late bid made for a positive finish. However, support has waned overnight and into premarket trade so that stock futures trail fair value by a modest margin. Overseas markets are generally weak, too, although the Shanghai Composite managed to make a gain. There are no major headlines to act as catalysts for morning trade and the economic calendar is empty. Weekly oil inventory data will be reported tomorrow as a result of the shortened week.

06:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30.

06:37 am : Nikkei...9279.65...-58.40...-0.60%. Hang Seng...19857.07...-227.10...-1.10%.

06:37 am : FTSE...4910.87...-54.10...-1.10%. DAX...5873.40...-67.60...-1.10%.

06:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30.

06:37 am : Nikkei...9279.65...-58.40...-0.60%. Hang Seng...19857.07...-227.10...-1.10%.

06:37 am : FTSE...4910.87...-54.10...-1.10%. DAX...5873.40...-67.60...-1.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
questions@thestrategylab.com
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