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 Post subject: July 2nd Friday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +12.50
PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 3:36 pm 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from Youtube Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=560

Quote:
Today's results are 1 win : 1 loss (see above #FuturesTrades log). I only had about an hour to trade because that's what the spouse gave me while the family is on vacation. Thus, I increased the position size especially after seeing a unique type of gap set up short positions.

Trading Tip: Inexperience traders approach gap trading incorrectly via trying to use statistics to determine the probability of a fill or not. In contrast, they should be using gaps as pivots.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about any thing related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=116&t=709

Trade Performance for Today: +12.50 points or $1,250 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
Attachment:
070210_wrbtrader_PnL_Blotter_Profit.png
070210_wrbtrader_PnL_Blotter_Profit.png [ 31.97 KiB | Viewed 1554 times ]

1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.
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The market summaries below are courtesy of Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance. gm

Stocks End At New 2010 Lows
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
July 2, 2010: 4:22 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended a volatile session lower Friday, with the major indexes ending at new 2010 lows in the aftermath of a weaker-than-expected June jobs report.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 46 points, or 0.5%, after having been on both sides of the unchanged line through the session. The Nasdaq (COMP) composite slipped 9 points, or 0.5% and the S&P 500 (SPX) index dropped 0.5% as well.

The Dow and Nasdaq ended at fresh 8-month lows and the S&P 500 at a 9-month lows.

Stocks slid through most of the day as investors digested the jobs report ahead of a long holiday weekend. All U.S. financial markets are closed Monday in observance of Independence Day.

Stocks have tumbled in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 down more than 15% since the April highs on worries about the European debt crisis and U.S. economy. Stocks lost ground Thursday following worse-than-expected economic readings on manufacturing and housing.

On Friday, the jobs report provided little relief, showing a rise in private sector hiring that was smaller than expected, and a drop in the overall number of jobs.

"The rise in private-sector payrolls shows we are moving in the right direction, but just not fast enough to keep up with all the headwinds in the economy," said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management.

Jobs report: Employers cut 125,000 jobs from their payrolls last month, more than the 100,000 job cuts expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

Most of the decline was a result of the 225,000 temporary Census employees that were let go after the conclusion of the survey.

On the upside, the private sector added 83,000 jobs, the report showed. However, that was shy of the 112,000 economists had been expecting.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, dropped to 9.5% from 9.7% in May. Economists thought it would rise to 9.8%.
Jobs recovery hits a wall

Factory orders: In the day's other economic report, the Commerce Department said factory orders fell 1.4% in May after rising 1% in April. Economists thought orders would drop 0.6%.

On the move: Stock declines were broad based, with 27 of 30 Dow components falling, led by Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) and Verizon Communications (VZ, Fortune 500).

Bank stocks were hit hard, with the KBW bank sector index sliding 2%. Truckers, railroads and airlines were hit by worries about the economic slowdown, sending the Dow Jones transportation average lower.

World markets: European markets were mixed, with Britain's FTSE 100 adding 0.7%, Germany's DAX losing 0.4% and France's CAC 40 gaining 0.3%.

Asian markets were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei rising 0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling 1.1% and the Shanghai Composite rising 0.4%.
0:00 /2:05What's your financial beef?

Commodities: U.S. light crude oil for August delivery fell 81 cents to $72.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose $1 to $1,207.70 an ounce.

Currency: The euro gained versus the dollar but remained above the four-year low of $1.188 hit earlier in the month. The dollar was up slightly versus the yen.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 2.96% from 2.93% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth: Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners two to one on volume of 540 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers two to one on volume of 920 million shares.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : Stocks made a late attempt to snap their recent string of losses in the face of some dour employment data, but a late slide proved that sellers are still in control.

According to official statistics, nonfarm payrolls for June fell by 125,000, which is worse than the 100,000 decline that had been expected, on average, by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com. Private payrolls for June increased by 83,000, which is an improvement from the 33,000 private payrolls that were added last month.

The headline unemployment rate eased back to 9.5% from 9.7%, but that was largely due to a contraction in the labor force.

Factory orders for May were of secondary concern. They fell 1.4%, which is sharper than the 1.0% that had been widely anticipated.

The dour data dampened expectations for relief from the stock market's recent weakness and allowed sellers to stay in control for most of the session. Their efforts took stocks as much as 1% lower, but pressure faded into the close so that stocks actually worked their way into higher ground late in the session. However, the climb failed to hold, and stocks slipped to their ninth loss of the past 10 sessions.

Given that the stock market has dropped nearly 9% during the course of the past 10 sessions, many pundits believe things are oversold in the near term. Though that may be the case, market participants haven't seen adequate data in recent sessions to reassure them that the economic recovery hasn't downshifted.

Cyclical plays saw some of the sharpest selling. As such, consumer discretionary stocks sank 1.2%, financials fell 1.1%, and industrials dropped 1.0%.

The materials sector was able to limit its loss to 0.3% with help from diversified metals and mining plays (+0.5%), thanks to a compromise on the tax treatment of mining profits by Australia's lawmakers. BHP Billiton (BHP 62.71, +0.29) was a primary beneficiary of the news.

Biotech plays spiked 1.8% amid chatter that Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 29.40, -0.98) may be interested in a multibillion dollar acquisition. Though there was no confirmation on the matter, the speculation was enough to help the health care sector steadily outperform through out the session. As a group, health care stocks advanced 0.3%.

Verizon (VZ 26.81, +0.53) completed its $8.6 billion spinoff of its local wireline operations to Frontier Communications (FTR 7.35, -0.34). Shares of VZ showed a positive response, but FTR was dropped for a marked loss.

The Volatility Index dropped 10%, despite the day's gyrations. Trading volume was also respectable in that more than 1 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE ahead of the long, holiday weekend (U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Independence Day).

Advancing Sectors: Health Care (+0.3%), Telecom (+0.2%), Utilities (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (-1.2%), Financials (-1.1%), Industrials (-1.0%), Materials (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%), Energy (-0.2%), Tech (-0.2%) DJ30 -46.05 NASDAQ -9.57 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -1.0% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -4.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 948/1.64 bln/1681 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1209/1.10 bln/1812

3:35 pm : Commodities and equities traded lower again this session, despite continued weakness in the dollar.

Energy commodities were especially weak. They traded 1.6% lower. Natural gas led the decline, reversing yesterday's gain to close 3.5% lower at $4.69 per MMBtu. August crude oil futures lost value for the fifth straight session. They closed 1.1% lower at $72.14 per barrel.

Within the industrial metals, aluminum and nickel futures fell 2.6% and 3.8% respectively. Copper rose 1.4%, though.

Precious metals were largely unchanged this session. August gold rose 0.4% to $1211.50 per ounce. July silver lost 0.3% to $$17.70 per ounce. DJ30 -21.68 NASDAQ -6.56 SP500 -2.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 914/1.32 bln/1683 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1226/762 mln/1771

3:00 pm : Stocks are still stuck in range bound trade with broad-based losses. With one hour remaining in the session, the stock market looks like its on track for its fifth straight loss and its ninth loss in 10 sessions. During those 10 sessions the stock market has dropped nearly 9%.

While volatility is down 5% this session, according to the Volatility Index, pressure in the latest 10 sessions has caused the Volatility Index to surge a cumulative 30%. DJ30 -66.71 NASDAQ -13.86 SP500 -6.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 760/1.20 bln/1844 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 985/690 mln/1999

2:30 pm : Utilities stocks make up the only sector to sport a gain at the moment, though they are up just 0.1%. The sector is currently led by electric utilities like Duke Energy (DUK 16.11, +0.14), American Electric (AEP 32.48, +0.26), and Consolidated Edison (ED 43.14, +0.24).

Consumer discretionary stocks are at the other end of the scope. The sector is down 1.5% this session. Retailers like Macy's (M 17.78, -0.55) and J Crew Group (JCG 36.32, -1.16) are laggards in the space. DJ30 -76.09 NASDAQ -14.72 SP500 -7.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 772/1.11 bln/1817 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1003/640 mln/1974

2:00 pm : The stock market has been stuck in a five-point range for the past hour or so. The sideways and generally lackluster trade precedes the long, holiday weekend (U.S. markets will be closed Monday in observance of Independence Day).

Though participation on midsummer Friday afternoons is typically underwhelming, overall share volume has been on par with average levels of recent weeks. At this point in the session, nearly 600 million shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE. DJ30 -59.07 NASDAQ -12.51 SP500 -5.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 788/1.04 bln/1779 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1050/594 mln/1917

1:30 pm : All three major indices are contending with losses of roughly 1%. The Nasdaq 100 is also down 1.0%, as is the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index. The Russell 2000 is grappling with a slightly steeper loss of 1.3%.

Outside of the aforementioned indices, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 1.4% and the Amex Airline Index is down 3.9%. DJ30 -99.93 NASDAQ -20.42 SP500 -9.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 731/965 mln/1831 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 939/550 mln/2013

1:00 pm : Persistent selling pressure in the wake of a disappointing jobs report has the stock market on track for its ninth loss in 10 sessions.

Early trade was generally choppy as stocks struggled to find direction. The mixed tape came as some anticipated a relief from the stock market's recent streak of losses, but the mood of many others was dampened by news that nonfarm payrolls for June dropped by a sharper-than-expected 125,000. Though the official unemployment rate eased to an 11-month low of 9.5%, that was largely discounted due to a smaller labor force.

The employment report captured the attention of market participants for most of the morning. In turn, the latest factory orders figures were relegated to secondary status. Orders for May fell a sharper-than-expected 1.4%.

Selling pressure has intensified into early afternoon trade. Though the effort has been broad based, financials are under the most pressure. The sector is now down 1.6%.

Health care stocks have managed to hold up relatively well. The sector is currently flat as biotech stocks sport a 1.4% gain amid chatter that Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 29.33, -1.05) may be interested in a multibillion dollar acquisition.

Telecom giant Verizon (VZ 26.75, +0.47) completed its $8.6 billion spinoff of its local wireline operations to Frontier Communications (FTR 7.16, -0.53). Owners of VZ will receive 0.24 shares of FTR for each share of VZ.

Despite this afternoon's slide, the Volatility Index is down a considerable 4%. It is still up 45% year-to-date, though. DJ30 -103.90 NASDAQ -19.81 SP500 -9.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 708/890 mln/1842 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 885/505 mln/2063

12:30 pm : The stock market is stuck near its session low in choppy trade. Despite that the Volatility Index is still down more than 4%.

Commodities remain under pressure, too. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.6% at the moment. Natural gas prices are especially weak after they surged in the prior session. The commodity was last quoted with a 4.3% loss at $4.65 per MMBtu. DJ30 -73.45 NASDAQ -13.38 SP500 -6.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 809/790 mln/1722 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1018/450 mln/1903

12:00 pm : Stocks recently extended their retreat, though the slide steadied before the broader market could breach the nine-month lows that it set during the prior session.

Despite mounting losses this session, Treasuries haven't traded with any real strength. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is currently flat, while the 30-year Bond has dropped 10 ticks. Their yields stand at 2.95% and 3.91%, respectively. DJ30 -84.27 NASDAQ -16.29 SP500 -7.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 740/697 mln/1767 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 938/401 mln/1950

11:30 am : The stock market has chopped its way to a fresh session low. Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, only health care (+0.3%) and utilities (+0.2%) are in positive territory. Other defensive-oriented sectors like telecom (-0.1%) and consumer staples (-0.1%) have managed to limit their losses, though.

Financials remain under the most pressure. The sector is now down 1.3%. Consumer discretionary plays, which outperformed in the prior session, aren't far behind, though; they trade with a 1.2% loss. DJ30 -62.55 NASDAQ -9.60 SP500 -5.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 846/585 mln/1604 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1031/338 mln/1816

11:00 am : A lack of leadership has left the broader market to continue its choppy trade. However, health care stocks have managed to hold on to steady gains -- the sector is up 0.5% at the moment. The sector's strength comes amid market chatter that Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 29.63, -0.75) may be interested in pursuing a multibillion dollar acquisition in the pharmaceutical space.

In contrast, shares of financials have been dropped for a 0.8% loss. The sector's weakness is largely underpinned by losses among specialized finance plays (-1.9%). DJ30 -36.28 NASDAQ -6.50 SP500 -2.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 995/469 mln/1421 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1236/268 mln/1558

10:30 am : The US Dollar Index continues to trade near session lows, but most commodities are still trading in the red this morning.

August crude oil has chopped around near the unchanged line for most of today's session. Crude broke down around 8:30am ET, falling to new session lows of $71.70 per barrel. Crude quickly bounced back and is currently trading modestly lower at $72.59 per barrel, down 0.5%.

August natural gas has been in the red for the majority of today's session. The energy component fell to new session lows of $4.751 per MMBtu in recent trade and has remained near that level recently. In current activity, natural gas is 2.2% lower at $4.75 per MMBtu.

August gold and July silver both began to see weakness around 7:00am ET and ultimately fell into negative territory. Gold and silver hit new session lows of $1198.80 per ounce and silver hit 17.62 per ounce, respectively. Currently, gold is just below the unchanged line at $1205.60 per ounce, while silver is 0.6% lower at $17.66 per ounce. DJ30 -5.03 NASDAQ -0.85 SP500 +1.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1049/357.5 mln/1249 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1427/206.7 mln/1277

10:00 am : Early gains have dissipated amid choppy trade. Materials stocks, which were leaders at the open, have pulled back from a gain of roughly 0.8% to now trade with a gain of 0.3%, while consumer discretionary stocks have gone from a modest gain to a loss of 0.3%. Despite the swings, the Volatility Index is down 7%.

Factory orders for May were just released. They fell 1.4%, which is sharper than the 0.6% decline that had been widely expected. Also, orders for the prior month were revised lower to reflect a 1.0% increase. DJ30 -0.33 NASDAQ -0.66 SP500 +0.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1073/216 mln/1128 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1352/132 mln/1282

09:45 am : Stocks are up solidly in the first few minutes of trade. The advance has been broad based with all 10 major sectors in higher ground.

Of the major sectors, materials stocks are up the most. The sector currently sports a 0.7% gain as diversified metals plays spike to a 2.1% gain. The move mirrors that of major international miners on overseas markets after a compromise on the tax treatment of mining profits was reached by Australia's lawmakers.

Tech stocks look like early laggards. The sector is up just 0.1% at the moment. DJ30 +24.04 NASDAQ +7.52 SP500 +5.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1183/140 mln/975 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1590/80 mln/972

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.30. Stock futures suggest that a relatively mixed start to trade is in order. Such insipidity follows news that nonfarm payrolls for June fell by a sharper-than-expected 125,000, but the unemployment rate retreated more than expected to 9.5%. The report has been the focal point of market participants this morning, primarily due to the signals and implications it carries for the broader economy, but also because there hasn't been much other news of consequence. There is a factory orders report for May coming up at 10:00 AM ET, but other than that news flow will likely be limited ahead of the long, holiday weekend.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. Futures for the S&P 500 continue to gyrate in the wake of the latest monthly payrolls report. Meanwhile, Europe's major bourses are up with varied gains at the moment. Specifically, Germany's DAX sports a 0.6% gain. Industrial plays (+1.0%) and financial issues (+0.9%) are a key source of support, but health care stocks (-1.0%) have been a drag. Health care stocks in France's CAC have fallen to a 1.6% loss, but the French index is still up 0.9%. BNP Paribas is a primary leader, but basic materials (+1.6%) are a source of broader support. In Britain, the FTSE is up 1.0% amid strength in banking issues Barclays (BCS) and Lloyds Banking Group (LYG). Mining plays like BHP Billiton (BHP) are also strong following news that a compromise has been reached by Australia's lawmakers on profits of miners. The euro continues to gain ground against the dollar. In its best single-session percentage gain in one year, the euro surged more than 2% versus the dollar yesterday and it is now up another 0.5% this morning. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite advanced 0.4% in its first gain of the past eight sessions. PetroChina (PTR) was a primary leader. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell 1.1% after participants returned from holiday observance on Thursday. HSBC (HBC) and other banking issues drove the loss. In Japan, the Nikkei closed just 0.1% higher. Strength in Softbank and Fanuc LTD helped give advancers an edge.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00. Stock futures initially whipped upward following the latest payroll figures, but they have since pulled back to trail fair value.

According to official statistics, nonfarm payrolls for June fell by 125,000, which is a little sharper than the 100,000 decline that had been expected, on average, by a sample of economists polled by Briefing.com. Private payrolls for June increased by 83,000, which is an improvement from the downwardly revised increase of 33,000 private payrolls last month.

The official unemployment rate now stands at 9.5%, down from 9.7% and below the 9.8% that many had come to expect.

Average weekly hours worked were trimmed to 34.1 from 34.2 and average hourly earnings slipped 0.1% month-over-month when an increase of 0.1% had been widely expected.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. Stocks have suffered losses in eight of the past nine sessions for a cumulative decline of 8%. While moderate strength in stock futures may suggest that some relief is in order, the stock market will most likely take its cues from the official nonfarm payrolls report for June. The report is due at the bottom of the hour and it is expected to show a net decline of about 100,000 positions.

Factory orders figures for May are of secondary concern - they are due at 10:00 AM ET.

As for overseas action, markets in Europe have benefited from a modest bid. Gains there are led by industrial plays after a compromise on mining taxes in Australia was reached. Trade was mixed in Asia, though.

06:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80.

06:37 am : Nikkei...9203.71...+12.10...+0.10%. Hang Seng...19905.32...-223.70...-1.10%.

06:37 am : FTSE...4833.70...+27.90...+0.60%. DAX...3350.05...+10.20...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
questions@thestrategylab.com
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