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 Post subject: June 21st Monday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +17.10
PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 10:38 pm 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from Youtube Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=75&t=549

Quote:
Today's results are 5 wins : 2 losses (see above #FuturesTrades log). I got back on the bike after Friday's losing effort. However, as stated in the log, the volatility in the morning trading session has become very difficult to interpret. Yet, I do expect things to get back to normal after a few key changes in supply/demand in reaction to key market events or global economic news. With that said and getting back to my trading...the failed counter-thrust around 2:20pm est involved several key markets along with help from VXX. Thus, it was an easy short because the intermarket analysis had most key markets in sync during that price drop after 2:20pm est.

Trading Tip: Understanding price reactions and changes in supply/demand as they react to global economic events/news will spice up any trade signal strategy.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about any thing related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=115&t=681

Trade Performance for Today: +17.10 points or $1,710 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
Attachment:
062110_wrbtrader_PnL_Blotter_Profit.png
062110_wrbtrader_PnL_Blotter_Profit.png [ 32.37 KiB | Viewed 1614 times ]

1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.
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The market summaries below are courtesy of Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance. gm


http://www.youtube.com/v/9-uLs2JSzQ8

Stocks End Lower
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
June 21, 2010: 6:26 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks finished lower Monday, with the Dow industrials erasing a gain of as much as 143 points, as investors chose to be cautious after a recent advance and discounted China's move to strengthen its currency.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 8 points, or 0.1%; the S&P 500 index (SPX) fell 4 points, or 0.4%; and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gave up 21 points, or 0.9%.

Stocks rallied in the morning, trimmed some gains in the early afternoon, and then slipped through the close.

"We were up over 100 this morning [on the Dow] on the China news, but again we're seeing the pattern that the trend reverses in the last hour or so," said Scott Armiger, portfolio manager at Christiana Bank & Trust Company. "The rallies don't hold, and the declines manage to recover."

He said this trend reflects the increased volatility that's been in markets lately but also the fact that stocks are pretty fairly valued at this point, relative to earnings expectations.

Stocks had risen for two weeks straight, with the major indexes all up more than 6%, as buyers returned following the May selloff. That selloff followed a roughly 80% rally on the S&P 500 off its March 2009 lows.

Worries that Europe's debt problems will slow down the global economic recovery dragged on stocks last month. Weaker-than-expected reports on housing, jobs and manufacturing added to the wariness.

But those worries have been set aside lately as investors scooped up shares beaten down in the recent rally. Market gains have also been driven by some supportive technical factors.

Investors got good news over the weekend when China said it will allow its currency, the yuan, to rise against the dollar, after it was pegged to the dollar over the last two years.

Freeing up the currency could be a boon to U.S. manufacturers and exporters, who suffered as the artificially low yuan made imports to China expensive.

However, China cautioned that the yuan's rise would happen only gradually.

On Monday, the dollar was barely changed versus the yuan and was 0.5% higher versus the yen. The euro barely budged versus the U.S. currency. The weak euro has been something of a proxy for investor worries about the economy over the last few months.
China grants Geithner's wish

On the move: A variety of stocks declined, with big tech issues leading the way, including Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) and Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500).

Amazon shares fell after the company cut the price of its Kindle electronic reader, the latest salvo in a pricing war that saw Barnes & Noble (BKS, Fortune 500) cut the price of its Nook earlier in the day.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners four to three on volume of 1.07 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers two to one on volume of 1.91 billion shares.
0:00 /1:30Yuan peg to dollar loosened

World markets: European markets rallied. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.9%, Germany's DAX rose 1.2% and France's CAC 40 climbed 1.3%.

Asian markets climbed. Japan's Nikkei advanced 2.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 3.1%, and China's Shanghai Composite added 2.9%.

Commodities: U.S. light crude oil for July delivery rose 64 cents to settle at $77.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $6.20 to $1,233.70 an ounce after closing at a record $1,258.30 on Friday.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.24% from 3.22% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : News that China will let its yuan move more freely triggered a strong buying effort that sent the stock market sharply higher in the early going, but a gradual loss of support left stocks to surrender all of their gains and settle with losses.

Major market averages in Asia surged during the first session of the week; European bourses followed suit. Their advances were spurred by a decision from The People's Bank of China to allow the yuan to move more freely, though no more than 0.5% in either direction per day, for now. Some interpret the decision as a sign that China is confident in its economy, given that a stronger yuan would make the country's exports pricier to foreign buyers. However, a stronger yuan should boost China's purchasing power, such that goods and raw materials would seem cheaper to China's consumers and businesses.

Market participants reacted to the news and the strong overseas gains by sending the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 each up by more than 1% in the early going.

Given China's voracious appetite for raw materials, natural resource plays saw some of the strongest gains. In turn, materials stocks collectively made their way more than 2% higher. However, early buying lost momentum and the sector finished with a much more modest gain of 0.4%.

The sector's downturn followed that of the broader market, which was unable to produce any kind of follow through after its initial gap higher in the opening minutes of trade. In turn, it descended steadily for the rest of the session.

Retailers were hit with some of the hardest selling pressure. As a group, retailers dropped to a 1.7% loss, which undercut the consumer discretionary sector so that it fell 0.9% to log the worst loss of any major sector.

Tech stocks weren't far behind, though. The sector, which is the largest by market weight, booked a 0.8% loss. Its weakness imbued the Nasdaq, which underperformed the other headline indices for almost the entire session. Amazon.com (AMZN 122.55, -3.28) was one of the weaker performers in the index after reports indicated the company has cut prices on Kindle, the company's electronic reader.

While the stock market's slide was broad based, both Mastercard ( MA 223.34, +9.08) and Visa (V 80.90, +3.86) were able to book strong gains amid increased clarity regarding the Durbin bill's limit on interchange fees related to debit card transactions. A removal of marginal cost language and clarification on how interchange rates are defined were cited by media.

Commodities also succumbed to selling. In fact, August gold had been up to a new record high of $1266.50 per ounce overnight, but it closed pit trade with a 1.9% to $1240.70 per ounce. July silver settled lower by 2.3% to $18.81 per ounce.

The energy patch saw a 2.4% decline in July natural gas futures, which closed at $4.88 per MMBtu. July crude oil managed to make a 0.8% gain to close pit trade at $77.82 per barrel, but only after it bounced off the flat line in afternoon trade.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+0.4%), Industrials (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (-0.9%), Tech (-0.8%), Utilities (-0.8%), Health Care (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%), Financials (-0.3%), Energy (-0.2%), Telecom (-0.1%) DJ30 -8.23 NASDAQ -20.71 NQ100 -0.9% R2K -1.0% SP400 -0.8% SP500 -4.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 865/1.91 bln/1807 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1262/1.07 bln/1782

3:30 pm : A rally in the dollar index caused a sell off in commodities this afternoon. The CRB Index's largest decliner was the precious metals sector, which shed 2.1%. August gold closed lower by 1.9% to $1240.70 per ounce. In overnight trade, gold did put in a new all-time high at $1266.50. July silver settled lower by 2.3% to $18.81 per ounce. While silver futures were able to bounce off of their session lows, gold futures sold off throughout the afternoon to close near lows.

The energy sector shed 0.4%, led by a 2.4% decline in July natural gas futures, which closed at $4.88 per MMBtu. It was the first commodity to sell off this afternoon as it dropped roughly 20 cents over a span of 20 minutes and continued to move lower throughout the session. July crude oil settled higher by 0.8% to $77.82. It bounced off the flat line in afternoon trade to recoup some of its gains. DJ30 -21.46 NASDAQ -20.68 SP500 -5.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 840/1.5 bln/1808 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1198/789.4 mln/1812

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 is within a point of the neutral line. The move to fresh session lows has been broad based, such that half of the major sectors in the S&P 500 are either already in negative territory or flirting with a loss.

Meanwhile, the dollar has attracted support. It is now up 0.3% to a session high. DJ30 +31.98 NASDAQ -7.38 SP500 +0.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1128/1.28 bln/1496 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1645/680 mln/1354

2:30 pm : The broader market continues to move along with a modest gain, but materials stocks continue to sport gains of more than 1%. The sector's strength comes in response to news that Beijing will allow its yuan to move more freely.

Still, Beijing has yet to make any formal announcements related to actually un-pegging its yuan. Already the government there has restricted any substantial immediate movement in the currency by allowing only a 0.5% move in either direction per day.

Nonetheless, some analysts contend that a stronger yuan will benefit the Chinese economy as it shifts to a service-based economy. Moreover, a stronger yuan will boost consumption by increasing purchasing power, while also fighting inflation. A move to a stronger yuan also benefits U.S. companies that export to China since they will receive more dollars when profits are repatriated. Conversely, Chinese exporters are hurt by a stronger yuan as the relative cost of their goods becomes more expensive for U.S. consumers and the dollar buys fewer goods that are denominated in yuan.

Another important implication of stronger yuan is a reduced ability for China to purchase foreign reserves, including U.S. Treasuries. China has long been a ready buyer of U.S. debt, which has helped finance the government's deficits in recent years. DJ30 +62.35 NASDAQ +0.75 SP500 +4.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1283/1.88 bln/1348 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1894/628 mln/1103

2:00 pm : Stocks recently dipped to fresh session lows. The move actually took the Nasdaq into negative territory for a moment.

However, both Mastercard (MA 229.33, +15.07) and Visa (V 82.90, +5.86) have spiked to fresh session highs, where each sports a gain of at least 7%. Their strength stems from headlines that have said the House has agreed on its version of interchange fee caps. DJ30 +50.49 NASDAQ +0.90 SP500 +3.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1275/1.09 bln/1338 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1815/569 mln/1173

1:30 pm : Commodities have come under a wave of stiff selling pressure that has taken the CRB Commodity Index back to the neutral line after it had been up a bit more than 1.5% at its session high.

Natural gas prices have made one of the sharpest swings. The commodity had been priced as high as $5.18 per MMBtu, but now it is down to $4.87 per MMBtu with a 2.5% loss.

Meanwhile, oil prices are now at $77.40 per barrel with a 0.3% gain after they had been as high as $78.92 per barrel.

Gold prices are now down 1.4% at $1240 per ounce. They had actually set a new record high overnight at $1266.50 per ounce.

Silver prices have also fallen sharply. They were last quoted at $18.81 per ounce, down 2.0%. DJ30 +57.74 NASDAQ +5.41 SP500 +4.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1354/996 mln/1255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1933/525 mln/1039

1:00 pm : News that China's currency will be allowed to move more freely triggered a wave of buying, but enthusiasm has gradually faded so that stocks now trade with modest gains.

The People's Bank of China had been accused in the past of intentionally devaluing its currency, the yuan, but over the weekend it announced that market demand will have more of an influence over the currency. For now, a 0.5% move in either direction per day will be allowed.

Exports, a primary contributor to China's economic activity, could be adversely affected by the decision of the country's central bank, so many regard the decision as a sign that China is comfortable with its overall economic health. That, along with the implications of a stronger yuan against competing currencies, triggered buying among natural resource stocks in both Europe and in the U.S.

Support for metals and mining plays made ArcelorMittal (MT 32.09, +1.64) a leader in the Euro Stoxx 50 and sent diversified metals and mining stocks in the S&P 500 up more than 5%, collectively. Metals stocks have handed back some of their gains, but the group is still up more than 4%.

The broader market has made a much more pronounced pullback, though. It had been up more than 1% at its session high, but that gain has been more than halved as the initial excitement from China's announcement wears off and participants reconsider macro prospects and headwinds facing the stock market.

The stock market's pullback has been broad based, but retailers have fallen under some of the most pressure. As a group, retailers are down with a 0.6% loss as department stores and merchandisers succumb to selling.

Sellers have also tried their efforts against tech plays, which are up a tepid 0.3% at the moment. Pressure against tech stocks had actually taken the Nasdaq all the way down to the neutral line. It has since reclaimed a portion of its gains, though. DJ30 +73.31 NASDAQ +7.42 SP500 +6.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1374/936 mln/1237 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1971/490 mln/989

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to give up their gains. In turn, the S&P 500 has now handed back more than half of the gain that it had sported in the early going and the Nasdaq has surrendered everything.

The market's descent has caused the Volatility Index to increase 1.5% after it had been down markedly this morning.

Meanwhile, Treasuries have trimmed their losses. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is now only slightly lower for the session.

Gold prices still haven't recovered, though. The precious metal is at a session low of $1251.70 per ounce, where it trades with a 0.4%. DJ30 +58.80 NASDAQ +0.81 SP500 +4.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1277/835 mln/1309 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1918/440 mln/1036

12:00 pm : The Nasdaq continues to drift downward so that it now trades with only a modest gain. It had been up in excess of 1% in the early going.

The Nasdaq's loss of strength comes as large-cap tech stocks come under pressure. For example, Microsoft (MSFT 26.29, -0.16) and Google (GOOG 493.93, -6.10) are near session lows.

Semiconductor stocks have provided some support to the tech-rich Nasdaq, though. As a group, semiconductor and semiconductor equipment stocks are up 0.9%. DJ30 +90.62 NASDAQ +10.02 SP500 +8.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1501/750 mln/1079 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2096/398 mln/827

11:30 am : Shares of retailers have retreated to a 0.3% loss. Their pullback has been led by merchandisers like Nordstrom (JWN 37.91, -0.75), Macy's (M 21.26, -0.20), and Target (TGT 53.06, -0.61).

Despite the weakness of retailers, the consumer discretionary sector is still up a solid 0.6%. Most of its strength stems from hotel and casino plays like Wynn Resorts (WYNN 88.45, +3.42) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS 27.79, +1.03). DJ30 +105.81 NASDAQ +15.76 SP500 +9.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1629/662 mln/917 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2204/355 mln/718

11:00 am : The broader equity market has handed back a chunk of its gains. Stocks are still up comfortably for the session, though.

Materials stocks continue to outperform. The sector is up 2.0% at the moment. Of its 32 members, only Newmont Mining (NEM 60.66, -0.59), Airgas (ARG 63.54, -0.22), and Pactiv (PTV 29.50, -0.06) are in negative territory. DJ30 +85.18 NASDAQ +12.81 SP500 +7.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1601/548 mln/888 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2192/300 mln/678

10:30 am : Broad support for commodities has helped drive the CRB Commodity Index to a 1.5% gain.

At an individual level, oil prices are up a sharp 1.9% to $78.65 per barrel. Natural gas prices are up an even sharper 3.2% to $5.16 per MMBtu.

Gold prices set a new record high overnight, when August futures prices for the yellow metal hit $1266.50 per ounce. The precious metal has since pulled back to trade with a fractional loss at $1255.50 per ounce, though; its retreat comes in response to considerable support for stocks instead of safety plays.

Silver prices had managed to hold on to gains a bit longer. The metal had been in positive territory for most of the morning, but it has since pulled back to $19.20 per ounce to trade flat for the session.

Copper prices are strong, though. The metal is currently priced at $301 per pound, up 3.9%. Its strength stems largely from news that China will let its currency move more freely -- a move that could benefit exporters of natural resources to the country. DJ30 +103.62 NASDAQ +17.29 SP500 +9.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1723/440 mln/764 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2305/240 mln/565

10:00 am : Traditionally defensive-oriented stocks are lagging in the early going. More specifically, consumer staples stocks are up just 0.4%, telecom and utilities stocks are up 0.5%, and health care stocks are up 0.6%, while the S&P 500 is up more than 1%.

Materials stocks continue to sport the strongest gains -- they're now up 2.3%. Energy and industrial stocks are up 1.9% to complement the materials sector's strength.

Such strength among stocks has put pressure on Treasuries. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is down more than 20 ticks so that its yield is back at 3.30%. DJ30 +135.66 NASDAQ +28.58 SP500 +13.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1833/264 mln/558 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2358/160 mln/402

09:45 am : The major equity averages are up sharply in the first few minutes of trade. Their strength is broad based, but materials stocks are out in front with a 2.1% gain.

The materials sector's advance is led by diversified metals stocks and steel stocks, which are up 5.2% and 3.7%, respectively. Favor for their shares is underpinned by the belief that a more freely moving Chinese yuan will benefit exporters that feed China's voracious appetite for natural resources. DJ30 +105.66 NASDAQ +22.52 SP500 +10.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1828/141 mln/456 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2336/102 mln/314

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.30. Stock futures point to a sharply higher start to the first session of the week. The supportive bid comes in response to a decision by The People's Bank of China to let its currency move more freely. In the past China has been accused of deliberately undervaluing its currency to boost exports, but its decision to let its currency move more freely reflects a confidence in the country's underlying economic health. Companies that export to China are expected to benefit from the decision. Given China's voracious appetite for natural resources, many metals and energy plays have caught a strong bid. However, BP Plc (BP) has fallen under renewed selling as it grapples with headline risk related to ongoing woes at its leaking oil well in the Gulf.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.60. A strong, morning bid for commodities has sent the CRB Commodity Index up 0.8%. Oil prices have provided the strongest support; crude oil was last quoted 1.9% higher at $78.65 per barrel. Natural prices are also up sharply; the commodity was last priced 2.8% higher at $5.14 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, silver prices are up 0.7% to $19.30 per ounce, but gold prices have pulled back to trade with a fractional loss at $1256.30 per ounce. Gold prices had hit a new record high of $1266.50 per ounce overnight.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.80. Index futures for the major U.S. markets are off of their morning highs, but they continue to trade with strength. Europe's major bourses continue to sport strong gains of their own, such that the Euro Stoxx 50 sports a 1.5% gain. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is up 1.2%. The German bourse is currently led by BMW, though all but two of its 30 members are in the red - Merck KGAA and Fresenius SE. France's CAC has climbed to a 1.4% gain. It is currently led by natural resource plays Total (TOT) and ArcelorMittal (MT). France Telecom has failed to participate in the rally, though. Britain's FTSE is up 0.9%, but BP Plc (BP) is back under pressure. Metals plays have provided the most support as Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Anglo American show leadership. The strength among metals stocks comes as a result of China's decision to allow its currency to move more with market demand. The decision signals that China is comfortable enough with its recovery prospects to make a move that will negatively affect exports, but one that will help companies that supply China with natural resources, like oil, copper, steel, coal, etc. While The People's Bank of China did not officially change the yuan peg, the currency will be able to move 0.5% per day. In Mainland China, the Shanghai Composite climbed to a 2.9% gain. PetroChina (PTR) was a primary leader. Financial issues were also strong. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng spiked 3.1%. It was also led by PetroChina and financial plays, specifically China Construction Bank and HSBC (HBC). In Japan, the Nikkei made its way to a 2.4%. Of its 225 components, only seven fell to a loss. Softbank and Japan Tobacco were among the laggards, while Fanuc was a primary leader.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.60. There are no economic reports scheduled for release today and corporate news flow is slow. However, a decision by the People's Bank of China to allow the market to have more of an influence over its currency triggered a strong rally among Asian markets. Europe's major bourses have followed and now index futures for the S&P 500 point to a sharply higher start for the week. Conversely, Treasuries are under pressure. As such, the yield on the 10-year Note is up to 3.29% after it finished Friday at 3.22%. The spread between the yield of the 2-year Note and that of 10-year Note is just shy of 255 basis points. Results from an auction of 2-year Treasury Notes will be released tomorrow.

07:13 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.60.

07:13 am : Nikkei...10238.01...+243.00...+2.40%. Hang Seng...20912.18...+625.50...+3.10%.

07:13 am : FTSE...5306.80...+55.90...+1.10%. DAX...6305.91...+88.80...+1.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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