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 Post subject: May 20th Thursday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +13.40
PostPosted: Sat May 22, 2010 10:37 am 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=527.

Quote:
Today's results are 6 wins : 2 losses. The key trade of the day was my 3rd trade (see #FuturesTrades log) and it was a loser via the trade signal via the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). However, the loss was due to a trade management mistake on my part because I failed to re-adjust my trailing stop to -0.80

Trading Tip: Trade management after entry is as important as the entry signal.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=109&t=652

Trade Performance for Today: +13.40 points or $1,340 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
Attachment:
052010_wrbtrader_PnL_Blotter_Profit.png
052010_wrbtrader_PnL_Blotter_Profit.png [ 33.04 KiB | Viewed 1575 times ]

1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.
------------------------------

The market summaries below are courtesy of Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance. gm


http://www.youtube.com/v/LOUZqvpN5Nk

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The stock market extended its downtrend with another high volume selloff in the face of the second straight rally by they euro.

A negative tone permeated trade for the entire session, such that any attempts to trim losses were checked. In turn, the path of least resistance was downward. That left 99% of the S&P 500 to fall to a loss -- MasterCard (MA 205.50, +3.08) was one of the few names that made it out of the session unscathed.

Such widespread weakness not only left the stock market to close below its 200-day moving average for the first time since July 2009, but it also resulted in the stock market's worst single-session slide in more than one year. The S&P 500 is now down more than 10% from both its 52-week intraday high of nearly 1220 and its 52-week closing high of 1217, both of which were logged in late April. That marks the stock market first official correction since its surge from its multiyear low in March 2009.

Though this session's selloff was the worst in over a year, the S&P 500 is still six points above the lows that were set during the "flash crash" exactly two weeks ago.

With uncertainty wreaking havoc on trade, the Volatility Index spiked nearly 30% to a new 52-week high.

The action also brought in participants from the sidelines. In turn, trading volume on the NYSE surpassed 2 billion shares. Volume on the Big Board has averaged roughly 1.2 billion shares during the course of the past 50 days has averaged almost 1.3 billion shares per session. Part of the above-normal trading volume is owed to an increase in options activity ahead of tomorrow's options-expiration session.

The stock market's high-volume, high-volatility dive this session came without regard for a rally by the euro. Relative to the dollar, the euro had started the session in the red after it recorded a 1.5% gain against the dollar during the prior session. However, the euro swung to a gain of more than 1% amid speculation about an intervention into the currency by the European Central Bank. The euro eased back a bit and was quoted with a 0.6% gain against the greenback after the close.

Other headlines failed to have any positive influence over trade. News that a Wall Street Reform Bill will go to a floor vote was met with some frustration by market pundits and economic data generally disappointed as initial jobless claims for the week ended May 15 climbed 25,000 to 471,000, which was higher than many had expected. Continuing claims came in at 4.63 million to top what had been widely expected.

Leading economic indicators for April showed a 0.1% decline when a 0.2% increase had been expected. Leading indicators for the prior month showed a 1.3% increase.

The Philadelphia Fed Index for May came in at 21.4, which was up slightly from 20.7 in the prior month. Treasuries benefited considerably from this session's action. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note spiked more than one point to cut its yield to levels not seen since last November.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-4.7%), Industrials (-4.6%), Energy (-4.4%), Materials (-4.4%), Consumer Discretionary (-3.8%), Tech (-3.6%), Health Care (-3.4%), Consumer Staples (-3.2%), Utilities (-3.2%), Telecom (-2.7%) DJ30 -376.36 NASDAQ -94.36 NQ100 -3.9% R2K -5.1% SP400 -4.3% SP500 -43.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 221/3.31 bln/2524 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 160/2.12 bln/2983

3:30 pm : Commodities were smacked with another round of stiff selling, such that the CRB Commodity Index fell another 1.0% to log its fifth loss in six sessions. During that time the CRB has surrendered more than 6%.

The CRB has been largely hampered by a steep and steady descent in oil prices. Oil prices have fallen more than 25% from their May high. In the latest round of pit trade, the July contract, which became the official front month contract upon the close of pit trade, quoted oil with a 2.4% loss at $70.75 per barrel.

Natural gas prices fell to a 1.2% loss at $4.11 per MMBtu after they failed to sustain modest gains that followed news of a slightly larger-than-expected weekly inventory build of 76 bcf.

Precious metals continued their pullback. As such, gold prices fell to a 0.3% loss to close pit trade at $1188.60 per ounce, while silver prices settled with a 1.4% loss at $19.23 per ounce. DJ30 -237.00 NASDAQ -61.93 SP500 -26.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 249/2.77 bln/2481 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 190/1.57 bln/2944

3:00 pm : Stocks have worked their way to afternoon highs. The move comes more as a result of softer selling pressure than any concerted buying.

Share volume has been especially strong this session. In fact, more than 1.4 billion shares have already traded hands on the NYSE. Volume on the Big Board has averaged roughly 1.2 billion shares during the course of the past 200 days and almost 1.3 billion shares during the course of the past 50 days. Part of the stronger-than-usual trading volume is owed to an increase in options trading ahead of tomorrow's options expiration session. DJ30 -227.03 NASDAQ -58.89 SP500 -26.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 243/2.54 bln/2478 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 184/1.41 bln/2946

2:30 pm : The euro has extended its recent run against the greenback. The euro is now up 1.0%, which comes on top of its 1.5% gain against the dollar during the prior session. The euro is now on pace for one of its best two-session surges against the dollar in one year.

Meanwhile, the stock market has made its way back to afternoon highs. Still, stocks are stuck with deep losses. DJ30 -247.96 NASDAQ -66.09 SP500 -29.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 201/2.25 bln/2513 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 147/1.27 bln/2975

2:00 pm : The stock market's bounce off of its session low has lost momentum. In turn, the Dow and S&P 500 continue to trade with losses well past 2%, while the Nasdaq is still down more than 3%.

Losses are even sharper among small-cap stocks. As such, the Russell 2000 is down 4.2%. Within the Small-Cap Index, fewer than 3% of the components have managed to put together a gain. New York & Co. (NWY 3.98, -1.32) is atop the list of declining issues; the company posted a quarterly loss that was in-line with Wall Street's consensus, but the stock was subsequently hit by an analyst downgrade. Shares of NWY have lost roughly one quarter of their market cap in this session alone. DJ30 -278.11 NASDAQ -76.28 SP500 -32.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 180/2.05 bln/2533 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 126/1.14 bln/2997

1:30 pm : In the past half hour the Dow has rallied roughly 100 points from its session low. The move comes as the euro spikes to a 0.4% gain against the dollar after the euro had been down markedly in the early going. The euro's climb comes amid news from CNBC that there may be intervention into the euro by the European Central Bank.

Though stocks have improved their position, losses remain steep and broad based. DJ30 -228.16 NASDAQ -67.97 SP500 -27.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 173/1.85 bln/2524 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 124/1.03 bln/2983

1:00 pm : The three major indices have breached their 200-day moving averages as market participants continue to dump stocks.

There hasn't been any headline to account for this session's slide. Rather, market participants have become increasingly risk averse in recent weeks, so their selling has only begotten more selling.

A near complete lack of support for stocks has left 98% of the names in the S&P 500 to trade with losses. Visa (V 74.08, +1.11) and MasterCard (MA 203.71, +1.26) have shown resilience, along with for-profit education provider Apollo Group (APOL 56.35, +0.17) amid the belief that regulations regarding gainful employment may not come to pass.

Such widespread weakness has taken the stock market to its worst level since the "flash crash" exactly two weeks ago. Stocks are also down roughly 11% from their 52-week intraday high.

The selling effort has sent the Volatility Index up 25% to a new 52-week high. Options are likely playing a part in the spike since tomorrow is an options-expiration session.

This session's action has translated into support for Treasuries, such that the benchmark 10-year Note is up more than one full point. That has caused its yield to drop below 3.20% for the first time since last November.

Economic data has done nothing to stem this session's selloff as initial jobless claims for the week ended May 15 climbed 25,000 to 471,000, which was higher than many had expected, and at 4.63 million continuing claims still topped what had been expected.

The Philadelphia Fed Index for May came in at 21.4, which is up from 20.7 in the prior month.

Leading economic indicators for April showed a 0.1% decline when a 0.2% increase had been expected. Leading indicators for the prior month showed a 1.3% increase. DJ30 -307.97 NASDAQ -86.26 SP500 -37.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 161/1.66 bln/2528 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 109/930 mln/2996

12:30 pm : Stocks recently tried to trim a portion of their losses, but failure to gather momentum has turned into another descent. All 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are now down by at least 2%, but half of them are down by at least 3%. DJ30 -291.18 NASDAQ -78.12 SP500 -34.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 177/1.47 bln/2493 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 122/820 mln/2972

12:00 pm : This is the fourth session in six that the stock market has fallen by at least 1%. This session's slide also marks the tenth loss in May's 14 trading sessions. Those losses have left the S&P 500 to trade with a month-to-date loss of more than 8%.

Commodities have fared even more poorly this month. Specifically, the CRB Commodity Index has fallen 10% since April ended. It is presently down 1.1%. Oil has been a considerable drag on the CRB, given that oil prices have fallen approximately $20 from their 52-week high to almost $70 per barrel, based on the July contract, in less than three weeks. DJ30 -250.91 NASDAQ -67.76 SP500 -29.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 188/1.31 bln/2464 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 131/730 mln/2949

11:30 am : Stocks are trying to work their way back to the levels that they saw during the first hour of trade, but resistance at the 1090 line has impeded the S&P 500's move.

With weakness so widespread, stocks remain on track for their third straight loss and their worst single-session slide since the "flash crash" exactly two weeks ago. Amid such persistent and stiff selling stocks are now down nearly 11% from their 52-week intraday high. DJ30 -216.60 NASDAQ -61.88 SP500 -25.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 191/1.14 bln/2441 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 131/632 mln/2933

11:00 am : Stocks recently moved another leg lower to extend the S&P 500's loss to more than 3%. It has since recouped a few points, but it continues to contend with sharp, broad-based losses. In fact, more than 98% of the names in the S&P 500 are now in negative territory.

Such widespread weakness has sent the Volatility Index up 25% to a new 52-week high.

All of this session's action has won considerable support for Treasuries. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is up more than one full point. That has caused its yield do drop below 3.25% for the first time since last November. DJ30 -250.91 NASDAQ -69.48 SP500 -29.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 164/926 mln/2436 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 106/517 mln/2923

10:35 am : The US Dollar Index recently moved back near earlier session highs, adding further pressure to most of the commodity complex.

June natural gas moved into negative territory around 7:30am ET and has trended lower since. The energy component hit new session lows of $4.07 per MMBtu minutes ago and was near those lows just ahead of inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 76 bcf versus consensus of a build of 75 bcf, natural gas moved back toward the flat line and is currently just under that level at $4.15 per MMBtu.

June crude oil moved into the red a few hours before natural gas earlier this morning, hitting its own lows of $67.55 per barrel around the same time. Crude has modestly recovered off those levels and is currently trading 3% lower at $67.73 per barrel.

June gold was trading along with the energy markets earlier this morning. Gold hit lows of $1175.00 per ounce around 8:30am ET, but rallied off of those lows back into positive territory. In recent trade, gold is 0.8% lower at $1184.00 per ounce. July silver is another story. Silver traded with gold earlier, but after hitting morning lows of $17.49 per ounce, it didn't see the rally gold did and is currently trading at $17.58 per ounce, down 3%. DJ30 -292.02 NASDAQ -73.34 SP500 -37.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 177/630.9 mln/2383 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 107/359.0/2855

10:00 am : Stocks have attempted to stabilize their morning slide. Losses remain steep and broad based, though.

Only 10 names in the S&P 500 have found higher ground. Gamestop (GME 21.64, -0.37) is atop that list of advancers; the company bested earnings for its latest quarter, but issued mixed guidance for the coming quarters. For-profit education providers Apollo Group (APOL 58.32, +2.14) and DeVry (DV 64.27, +1.81) have also found support.

The Philadelphia Fed Index for May was just released. It came in at 21.4, which is up from 20.7 in the prior month.

Leading economic indicators for April were also just released. They showed a 0.1% decline when a 0.2% increase had been expected. Leading indicators for the prior month showed a 1.3% increase. DJ30 -207.30 NASDAQ -53.98 SP500 -25.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 216/360 mln/2267 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 107/215 mln/2778

09:45 am : A barrage of selling pressure has sent all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 to losses of more than 1%. Materials and industrial plays are down the most as both sectors contend with a 3.0% drop. Such steep, broad-based losses have put the S&P 500 well below its 200-day moving average, which runs just above the 1100 line. The broad-based measure still remains 25 points above the lows that it set during the flash crash two weeks ago, though.

Meanwhile, the Dow has also fallen below its 200-day moving average, which stands near 10259. All 30 of its components are in the red.

The Nasdaq remains above its 200-day moving average of 2221, but its losses remain worse than those of its counterparts. DJ30 -187.27 NASDAQ -52.62 SP500 -23.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 198/250 mln/2227 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 102/158 mln/2749

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -21.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -37.00. Another wave of selling has positioned stocks for a sharply lower start, such that the S&P 500 is expected to open the session nearly 2% lower and well beneath its 200-day moving average near 1102. Such a gap down would also put the S&P 500 several points below its May 7 low, which followed the flash crash, and would also put the benchmark index down more than 10% from its 52-week high. There aren't any new headlines to account for the latest bout of pressure. Instead, the selling keeps with recent trends, which have stemmed largely out of concern that the tenuous financial conditions in Europe represent systemic risks. Such persistent concern has sent the euro back into the red after it had surged 1.5% against the dollar during the prior session; that move was one of its best of the year, but it was discounted by those that cited short covering as a primary catalyst. Another ugly jobless claims number hasn't helped the tone of trade this morning; initial claims for the week ended May 15 climbed 25,000 to 471,000, which was higher than many had expected, and even though continuing claims fell by 40,000 to 4.63 million they still topped what had been expected.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -24.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -40.50. U.S. stock futures remain under sharp pressure. Europe's bourses are also contending with widespread weakness, which has left the German DAX down 2.2%, France's CAC off by 2.7%, and Britain's FTSE 1.8% in the red. Meanwhile, the euro is down 0.5% against the greenback after it had rallied more than 1.5% during the prior session. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite sank 1.2% and Japan's Nikkei logged a 1.5% loss. Hong Kong's Hang Seng saw much more limited losses as it declined a tepid 0.2%. HSBC (HBC) was a source of considerable support for the Hang Seng.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -26.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -40.80. Stock futures have fallen to fresh morning lows in the minutes that have followed the latest weekly jobless claims count. Initial claims for the week ended May 15 totaled 471,000, which is greater than the 439,000 initial claims that had been expected. The latest initial claims count is up 25,000 from the prior week. As for continuing claims, they fell 40,000 week-over-week to nearly 4.63 million, but that was still greater than the 4.61 million continuing claims that many had come to expect.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -20.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -33.10. The euro's strongest single-session rally against the dollar in nearly one year failed to give stocks a gain during the prior session, but its retreat this morning has brought about renewed weakness among stock futures. In turn, a sharply lower start for the upcoming session looks to be in order. Commodity futures are also under pressure. As such, oil futures prices are down 2.4% to $68.20 per barrel and gold prices were last quoted at $1181.20 per ounce, down 1.0%. Market participants get their hands on a likely catalyst for trade at the bottom of the hour, when the latest tally of weekly jobless claims are released. The latest Philadelphia Fed Index and leading indicators compilation are due at 10:00 AM ET. Earnings continue to be disregarded by the broader market as the latest lot of results featured plenty of upside surprises from a raft of retailers. Separately, last evening's Senate vote to end debate on a Wall Street Reform Bill failed, as many had expected.

06:24 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.00.

06:24 am : Nikkei...10030.31...-156.50...-1.50%. Hang Seng...19545.83...-33.20...-0.20%.

06:24 am : FTSE...5169.51...+11.30...+0.20%. DAX...5971.48...-17.10...-0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
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