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 Post subject: May 19th Wednesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +32.20
PostPosted: Sat May 22, 2010 10:31 am 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=526.

Quote:
Today's results are 8 wins : 1 loss. The key trade of the day was my 9th trade (see #FuturesTrades log) and it was a trade signal via the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Tip: Most profitable traders that use technical analysis are not using TA all by itself and nothing else. Thus, don't be fooled into thinking that TA is all you need to know to be a profitable trader.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=109&t=652

Trade Performance for Today: +32.20 points or $3,220 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
Attachment:
051910_wrbtrader_PnL_Blotter_Profit.png
051910_wrbtrader_PnL_Blotter_Profit.png [ 32.68 KiB | Viewed 1467 times ]

1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.
------------------------------

The market summaries below are courtesy of Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance. gm


http://www.youtube.com/v/RgrYQkw4JLE

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : A rally by the euro against the dollar did little to motivate buyers, but stocks still slashed their losses after the S&P 500 dropped more than 1% to breach its 200-day moving average.

Overnight pressure against the euro took the currency down to a fractionally extended four-year low against the dollar. Its weakness remains underpinned by persistent uncertainty surrounding the fiscal health of the various European Union members. However, the euro started to attract some support in the minutes ahead of the opening bell and was eventually squeezed higher to a gain of little more than 1.5% versus the dollar.

Though the euro's move made for its best single-session gain against the greenback in nearly one year, the lack of any new developments in Europe led many to believe that the bounce was little more than a relief rally that squeezed short sellers. In turn, stocks showed little sustained reaction to the euro's climb.

With sellers still in control the S&P 500 gradually descended for the first half of trade. It even broke below its 200-day moving average of 1102 for a brief moment. However, support quickly surfaced as the benchmark index ran into the psychologically significant 1100 line. Stocks were able to cut their losses by more than half during afternoon action.

Financials proved to be a key source of support, even though the sector saw some rather volatile action -- the sector swung from a 1.0% gain to a 2.0% loss, then grinded its way higher to close with 0.2% gain. Still, financials made up the only sector to finish in higher ground.

Industrial stocks saw the most selling. The sector shed 1.3%, despite better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance from Deere & Co. (DE 58.87, +1.71).

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 47.00, +0.21) was also out with better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance. Its shares had little overall influence on the tech sector, which fell to a 0.7% loss.

An upside earnings surprise from Target (TGT 54.03, -0.19) couldn't take the pressure off of retailers. With a 0.5% decline, shares of retailers logged their fourth loss in five sessions, during which time the group has fallen nearly 7%.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acknowledged that there is increased investor anxiety about uncertainty over Europe. Concern over the continent's troubles left many to shrug off an increase in the FOMC's average 2010 GDP estimate to 3.5% from 3.2%, according to minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. As an aside, the FOMC has made no decisions about long term asset sale strategy.

In terms of actual data, the Consumer Price Index for April declined 0.1% month-over-month when a 0.1% monthly increase had been expected. Consumer prices less food and energy were flat for the second straight month, but a 0.1% monthly increase had been expected.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Industrials (-1.3%), Utilities (-1.0%), Energy (-1.0%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%), Tech (-0.7%), Materials (-0.4%), Telecom (-0.2%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%), Health Care (-0.1%) DJ30 -66.58 NASDAQ -18.89 SP500 -5.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 642/2.58 bln/2083 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 660/1.63 bln/2424

3:30 pm : With a 0.9% decline, the CRB Commodity Index fell to its ninth loss in 12 sessions. During that time the CRB has shed more than 9%.

A downtrend in oil prices has played a considerable part in CRB's decline. Oil looked like it would extend its slide in the face of a smaller-than-expected weekly inventory build of 162,000 barrels as prices fell as much as 2.0% in late morning trade. However, bids strengthened in afternoon action, such that prices settled with a 0.7% gain at $69.87 per barrel. Crude prices are currently up another dollar in electronic trade.

In contrast, natural gas prices traded with moderate weakness in the early going, but rolled over midmorning to extend losses and then chop their way into the close. Prices settled pit trade at $4.15 per MMBtu, down 4.4%.

Precious metals were caught up in a selloff of their own. More specifically, renewed pressure took gold prices to a 1.8% loss at $1193.10 per ounce. Just last week the metal set a record high of almost $1250 per ounce.

Silver prices pulled back another 4.0% to close pit trade at $18.12 per ounce. Prices had been at a 52-week high near $19.80 per ounce last week. DJ30 -66.73 NASDAQ -20.28 SP500 -6.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 615/2.17 bln/2097 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 600/1.25 bln/2475

3:05 pm : The stock market has entered into a relatively narrow range as the final hour of trade approaches. The listless action has left the major indices to continue trading with varied losses.

Pressure remains stiffest in the industrials sector, which is down 1.3%. In contrast, financials have managed to muster a fractional gain.

Volume has been strong this session. An hour of trade still remains and more than 1 billion shares have already exchanged hands on the NYSE. DJ30 -73.00 NASDAQ -20.77 SP500 -6.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 695/1.97 bln/2018 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 630/1.13 bln/2419

2:30 pm : The stock market recently came within a couple of points of positive territory, but pressure picked back up to put stocks on the backslide once again.

Volatility remains elevated, though off of its session high. More specifically, the Volatility Index is up just over 5% after it had been up nearly 15% at its sesison high.

Treasuries have had a lackluster session. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note has seen limited movement. It currently trades just a single tick into the red -- its yield remains just below 3.35%. DJ30 -80.94 NASDAQ -20.56 SP500 -6.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 647/1.83 bln/2053 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 580/1.04 bln/2470

2:05 pm : The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting were just released. They indicate that the average GDP estimate for 2010 now stands at close to 3.5%, up from the previous estimate of 3.2%. Additionally, the FOMC's estimate for unemployment in the fourth quarter stands at 9.3% and little above 7.0% by the end of 2010.

The minutes also indicated that no decisions have been made about long term asset sale strategy and that investor anxiety has increased about European uncertainty.

Despite the acknowledgement of such uncertainty, the euro continues to gain ground against the greenback, such that the euro is now up 1.5% to 1.2383. The move makes for the best single-session percentage advance by the euro of 2010.

Meanwhile, stocks have gradually made their way to an afternoon high. DJ30 -45.42 NASDAQ -11.22 SP500 -2.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 757/1.71 bln/1933 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 714/960 mln/2313

1:30 pm : Stocks have extended their midsession bounce so that they are not only at afternoon highs, but also at their best levels since about 10:00 AM ET.

Financials have helped provide leadership to the move. The sector is now up to a 0.1% gain after it had been down as much as 1.8%. However, financials had been up as much as 1.1% in the early going. Shares of Goldman Sachs (GS 139.01, +1.65) have been a key source of support as the sector recovers from a late-moring loss. DJ30 -64.16 NASDAQ -16.01 SP500 -5.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 741/1.56 bln/1940 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 633/871 mln/2400

1:00 pm : Despite renewed support for the euro, stocks are stuck in another round of broad-based selling pressure, which has sent the S&P 500 back to its 200-day moving average.

The euro set a fractionally extended four-year low against the dollar overnight, but it has managed to squeeze sharply higher, such that it is currently up 1.1% to 1.2331 per dollar. Though that is an exceptionally strong move, the euro hasn't even recovered to the levels that it saw at the start of the week. While the euro has attracted support, Europe's major bourses recorded sharp losses as Germany's DAX dropped 2.7%, Britain's FTSE fell 2.8%, and France's CAC closed with a 2.9% loss. Such steep slides have put added pressure on domestic names.

The major U.S. indices managed to push into positive territory during the early going, but the move was entirely short lived as sellers quickly stepped with conviction. Declining issues now outnumber advancers by more than 5-to-1.

Amid such widespread weakness the S&P 500 briefly broke below its 200-day moving average at 1102. That put the stock market almost 10% below its 52-week intraday high from April. However, support surfaced at the psychologically significant 1100 line. Stocks have since reclaimed a few points, but losses remain considerable.

Industrial stocks are under the most pressure, despite better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance from Deere & Co. (DE 58.57, +1.41).

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 47.38, +0.59) also reported an upside earnings surprise and issued upside guidance. Target (TGT 53.77, -0.45) beat earnings expectations, too.

Economic data hasn't done anything to turn positive the tone of trade. Overall consumer prices cooled a bit in April, but core consumer prices were flat for the second straight month. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are coming up at 2:00 PM ET. DJ30 -77.99 NASDAQ -21.50 SP500 -7.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 605/1.42 bln/2067 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 463/790 mln/2558.

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 has extended its bounce off of the 1100 line and is now at its best level more than one hour. Still, weakness remains widespread with declining issues outnumbering advancers by nearly 7-to-1 on the NYSE. Meanwhile, downside volume has accounted for approximately 80% of the total trading volume on the Big Board. DJ30 -105.05 NASDAQ -27.39 SP500 -11.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 495/1.29 bln/2149 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 380/726 mln/2643

12:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently breached its 200-day moving average, which stands at 1102, but the move below that key technical line was modest as support surfaced at the psychologically significant 1100 line. Stocks have since reclaimed a few points.

Volatility has spiked in recent trade. As such, the Volatility Index is up more than 11%. DJ30 -158.55 NASDAQ -43.22 SP500 -17.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 339/1.12 bln/2291 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 289/630 mln/2722

11:30 am : Pressure has intensified in recent trade. In turn, the S&P 500 now sits at a fresh session low, which puts it just above its 200-day moving average of 1102. The technical line will likely make for a key theme for near-term trade.

The latest leg down has left more than 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 to trade with a loss. Massey Energy (MEE 30.58, -2.14), Harman International (HAR 32.42), and Whirlpool (WHR 98.95, -5.09) are among the worst performers by percent lost, but none of them are among the top 20 most actively traded names this session. DJ30 -136.94 NASDAQ -39.49 SP500 -15.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 371/985 mln/2233 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 325/550 mln/2652

11:00 am : The stock market recently dropped to a loss of more than 1%, but it has since recovered. Still, losses are broad based with nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 in the red.

Health care (+0.2%) continues to trade with relative strength, thans to gains by biotech stocks (+1.1%).

Meanwhile, losses are currently most pronounced among industrial plays, which have fallen to a collective loss of 2.1%. Of the 57 members in the industrial sector, only Stericycle (SRCL 58.60, +0.53) and Deere & Co. (DE 57.87, +0.71) are in higher ground -- DE has been a standout due to its better-than-expected earnings and upside forecast. DJ30 -85.62 NASDAQ -21.48 SP500 -8.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 493/805 mln/2033 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 426/462 mln/2501

10:35 am : Collective weakness among commodities had the CRB Commodity Index down roughly 0.8% earlier, but its loss has been halved in recent trade. Most of the move is owed to a bounce by crude oil prices.

Oil prices had retreated to fresh multimonth lows below $68 per barrel earlier this morning, but prices have since recovered and even poked into positive territory in the moments that followed news that weekly oil inventories had a build of 162,000 barrels when a build of a half million barrels had been expected. Contract prices for crude oil were last quoted at $69.50 per barrel, up 0.1%.

Natural gas prices remain under pressure, though. The energy component was last priced at $4.25 per MMBtu, down 2.0%.

Precious metals prices are also under pressure. Gold currently trades at $1198.50 per ounce, down 1.3%. It has been a week since the yellow metal last traded below $1200 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver prices are down a sharp 3.1% to $18.29 per ounce. DJ30 -80.64 NASDAQ -24.25 SP500 -7.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 475/650 mln/2005 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 451/370 mln/2433

10:00 am : Stocks recently shook free from modest losses at the open to push into positive territory, but sellers have since renewed their efforts to knock stocks back into the red. The slide has been broad based.

Financials had been an early source of strength for the broader market. The sector quickly climbed to a gain of more than 1%, but it has since reversed to trade with a 0.2% loss. Now, health care stocks make up the only sector to sport a gain -- they are up 0.2%, collectively.

Just released, mortgage delinquencies for the first quarter increased to nearly 10.1% from roughly 9.5% in the prior quarter. The first quarter delinquency rate marks a 30-year high. DJ30 -63.93 NASDAQ -11.28 SP500 -4.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 738/318 mln/1611 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 802/200 mln/1954

09:45 am : Stocks are stuck in a choppy fit of trade during the first few minutes of action. Losses are modest.

While the major indices currently appear to be mired in negative territory, the Nasdaq recently made an uphill run toward higher ground. However, resistance at the neutral line drove it back down.

Unlike the prior session, finanicals are a source of strength. The sector is already up 0.6%. Investment banks (+1.3%), consumer finance plays (+1.6%), and diversified financial services outfits (+1.6%) have been key sources of support.

Utilities are at the other end of the spectrum. The sector is currently down 0.5%, more than any other sector, as market participants shun defensive-oriented electric utilities plays. DJ30 -36.05 NASDAQ -1.20 SP500 -1.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 953/158 mln/1276 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1165/122 mln/1509

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00. Renewed support for the euro has put pressure on the dollar, such that the Dollar Index has fallen 0.8% to a morning low. That scenario has helped stock futures improve their position, though a negative start to trade still looks to be in order. With market participants focused on the signals, tacit or otherwise, sent by currency movements, quarterly announcements from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Deere (DE), and Target (TGT) have been somewhat dismissed. However, their upbeat results have helped stir support for the individual names. Data hasn't done much for the broader tone of trade, either; total CPI cooled a bit and core consumer prices were flat for the second straight month. Still to come, though, are data on first quarter mortgage delinquencies (10:00 AM ET) and the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting (2:00 PM ET).

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.30. U.S. stock futures continue to work their way higher, but a negative start still looks to be in order. Europe's major bourses have also improved their position, but they still contend with widespread weakness. After being down more than 2%, Germany's DAX is now off by 1.7%. Commerzbank is the only name in the 30-member bourse to sport a gain. Yesterday Germany moved to tighten financial regulations by issuing a temporary ban on short selling certain financial shares. In France, the CAC is down 1.8%. All 40 of its members are in the red, but BNP Paribas is under some of the most pressure. In Britain, the FTSE is off by 1.6%. Experian and Capita Group are the only names in the 102-member index to trade in positive territory. Though weakness remains widespread among Europe's primary indices, losses have been trimmed on the back of an improved euro, which is now up 0.8% against the greenback. Action was also weak in Asia, where Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 1.8% to their lowest close in three months. Denway Motors was particularly weak after Guangzhou Automotive announced a stock swap deal. The privatization bid triggered over a 20% selloff in Denway stock, of which roughly 38% is owned by Guanzhou. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.3%. China Petroleum (SNP) was a leader, but PetroChina (PTR) was a laggard. In Japan, the Nikkei retreated 0.5%. Tech and commodities plays were among the weakest.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.50. Stock futures continue to trail fair value, but they have improved their position as the euro gains ground against the greenback -- the euro is now up 0.3% versus the dollar. Just released, the Consumer Price Index for April declined 0.1% month-over-month, but that is a bit of a surprise since many had expected a 0.1% monthly increase after a 0.1% month-over-month increase in March. Consumer prices less food and energy were flat for the second straight month, but a 0.1% monthly increase had been expected. The immediate reaction to the CPI data has been rather muted.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.80. Better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Deere (DE) have been unable to keep the prior session's slide from extending into premarket trade. Weakness has been perpetuated by stiff selling overseas, where Asia's major market averages already closed with varied losses and Europe's major bourses currently contend with losses of at least 2%. The euro has stabilized after slipping to a fresh four-year low against the dollar overnight. It was last quoted at 1.2210 per dollar, up fractionally against the buck. Meanwhile, gold futures prices continue to pull back. The commodity was last quoted at $1206.40 per ounce, down 0.7%. Oil remains mired in weakness as futures prices for the energy component trade with a 1.7% loss near $68.20 per barrel. The latest batch of weekly oil inventory data is due at 10:30 AM ET. As for economic data, the Consumer Price Index for April is due at the bottom of the hour. First quarter mortgage delinquencies follow at 10:00 AM ET. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 PM ET.

06:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.00.

06:37 am : Nikkei...10186.84...-55.80...-0.50%. Hang Seng...19578.98...-366.00...-1.80%.

06:37 am : FTSE...5187.78...-119.30...-2.20%. DAX...5998.54...-157.40...-2.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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