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 Post subject: May 5th Wednesday 2010 Emini TF points - NO TRADES TODAY
PostPosted: Thu May 06, 2010 11:50 pm 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=513.

Quote:
Today's results are NO TRADES. I decided to use today to get personal stuff done involving the house, shed and landscaping because the weather report saids Thurs, Fri and Sat will have rain and thunderstorm. Today was the only good day for outdoor work (no rain or storm forecast).

Trading Tip: Volatility has been increasing in 2010. That's when it's appropriate to increase position size and time duration in profitable trades.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: 0.00 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures due to personal day off to do some work on the house (shed).

------------------------------

Stocks mired in sell-off
By Julianne Pepitone, staff reporter
May 5, 2010: 4:38 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks extended losses to end sharply lower Wednesday, amid more signs of a deepening crisis in Europe.

Moody's said it was considering a downgrade of Portugal's debt, while three people were reported dead due to riots in Greece.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 60 points, or 0.6%, to end at 10,866.83. The blue-chip index had fallen more than 100 points earlier in the trading day.

The S&P 500 index (SPX) fell 8 points, or 0.7%, to close at 1,165.87. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) was down 22 points, or 0.9%, to settle at 2,402.29.

Moody's rating agency released a statement early Wednesday that it had placed Portugal's investment-grade bonds "on review for possible downgrade ... by one, or at most two, notches."

Also Wednesday morning, Greek authorities said three people had died in central Athens in a fire during street riots protesting severe new government austerity measures that are attached to its $146 billion bailout.

These and other overseas worries have slammed U.S. stocks this week. Global markets also felt the blow Tuesday, amid rumors that Spain was negotiating a bailout from the International Monetary Fund. Although both Spanish officials and the IMF denied the rumors, the S&P fell 2.4% and the blue-chip Dow tumbled 2% Tuesday.

Europe and volatility: On Tuesday, Wall Street's key index of volatility hit its highest level in more than two months. The VIX (VIX), which gauges fear in the market, surged more than 18% to close at 23.84 Tuesday. On Wednesday, the VIX ended 5.4% higher at 25.12.
Fear index hits 3-month highs

Volatility will likely continue, as investors will be forced to weigh chaotic foreign events with domestic improvements, said Dave Hinnenkamp, chief executive at KDV Wealth Management.

"This morning's steep drop was probably more of an overreaction to the uncertainty," Hinnenkamp said. "We might be in for more downward pressure, but if you look past all of the noise that's out there now the U.S. is well-positioned."

Upbeat U.S. earnings and improving economic data bode well for the domestic market long term, Hinnenkamp said.

Economy: The latest readings on jobs, though not enough to distract investors from the debt woes in Europe, showed some turnaround in the domestic job market.

Outplacement firm Challenger said planned job cuts in April dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years. A separate report showed private-sector employers added jobs for the third consecutive month.

Earnings: Before the opening bell, Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500) reported its highest quarterly profit in company history, easily beating Wall Street's forecasts. But Time Warner shares ended 2.4% lower.
0:00 /2:34Investing for long-term profits

The New York-based parent company of CNNMoney.com said its net income rose to $725 million, or 62 cents per share, up 10% from a year earlier. Analysts expected earnings of 48 cents per share.

Companies: Shares of biotech firm InterMune (ITMN) plunged to end 75% lower Wednesday after the Food and Drug Administration rejected the firm's application for a lung drug.

Outlook: Analyst Hinnenkamp said he is bullish on U.S. equities, and he "[doesn't] think European debt concerns will create the next Armageddon."

Greece and Portugal are two of the smaller economies in the euro zone, Hinnenkamp noted, so downgrades to their ratings are not of major concern.

"Independently, these aren't huge issues," Hinnenkamp said. "The worry lies in whether the rest of the European Union has to pick up the tab, and if that draws larger countries into debt problems as well."

World markets: Stocks in Europe ended lower, extending the previous session's sharp losses.

Asian markets also declined. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shed 2.1% and Taiwan's TSEC 50 index plunged nearly 3%. Markets in Japan were closed.

Other markets: The dollar rose 1.3% versus the euro, with the shared currency near a 12-month low. The U.S. currency also was up versus the British pound, but it fell 0.8% against the yen.

Oil prices plummeted $2.77 to settle at $79.77 a barrel, while COMEX gold for June delivery was rose $5.80 to settle at $1,169.20 an ounce.

Bond prices rallied, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down to 3.55%. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners four to one on volume of 1.5 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners bear advancers ten to three, on volume of 3 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Another round of highly volatile trade brought broad-based losses, but this session's slide wasn't as bad as the prior session's selloff. Still, many market participants seem to have grown increasingly skittish.

The prior session's 2.4% slide was the worst single-session percentage loss since February, but stocks failed to quickly snap back as they had so many other times. Instead, sellers stepped right back in to drop the S&P 500 another 1% in the early going. The pressure pushed the benchmark index well below its 50-day moving average, which hadn't been broken for two months.

Early weakness was partly owed to persistent concerns about the fiscal health of Greece and the rest of the PIIGS contingent, which includes Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain. Moody's reminded investors of their risk with news that Portugal's debt has been placed on review for possible downgrade.

Lost support for the euro and an interest in safety drove the U.S. dollar sharply higher once again. The greenback set a new 11-month high against a collection of competing currencies before it eased back. Still, it closed with a 1.0% gain and is now up 8.0% year-to-date.

With many global participants turning away from riskier assets and riskier markets the Dow Jones World Index fell 1.3%. The World Index dropped 1.7% when excluding the U.S., given that U.S. stocks were able to trim losses.

The S&P 500 had been down as much as 1.3% at its session low, but support from a technical trend line through 1158 triggered a rebound that took stocks all the way to positive territory. The gain proved unsustainable and stocks drifted lower into the close, though.

Of the major sectors, consumer staples (+0.3%) and health care (+0.2%) were the only two that managed to stage gains. Telecom limited its loss to just 0.1%.

Some of the worst losses were found in the energy sector, which was weighed down by broader market weakness and another sharp drop in oil prices. Crude oil prices had dropped 4% in the prior session and then surrendered 3.3% this session. Oil prices now stand at $79.97 per barrel, below the $80 per barrel mark for the first time in more than one month. The latest bout of selling was exacerbated by a larger-than-expected build in weekly oil inventories.

Financials had offered some midsession support to the broader market by making a swing from a near 2% loss to a near 1% gain. However, the sector succumbed to pressure as sellers redoubled their efforts; it finished with a 0.5% loss.

Volatility spiked once again. Amid early selling the Volatility Index spiked roughly 14% to a new three-month high, but it pulled back to settle nearly 5% higher.

Treasuries garnered support amid the highly volatile action. In fact, strong gains in the benchmark 10-year Note dropped its yield below 3.50% for the first time this year. The gain moderated so that the Note's yield climbed to 3.55% into the close.

Heightened participation helped trading volume on the NYSE hit 1.5 billion shares for the second straight session. That's the first time this year that volume has hit 1.5 billion shares on back-to-back sessions.

Economic data has done little for trade for the second straight session, but that's mostly due to a lack of surprise as the April ISM Service Index came in at 55.4, which was just below the 56.0 that had been widely forecast. The ADP Employment Report for April showed a slightly greater-than-expected 32,000 private payroll additions.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-1.5%), Industrials (-1.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.4%), Materials (-0.8%), Utilities (-0.7%), Tech (-0.6%), Financials (-0.5%), Telecom (-0.1%) DJ30 -59.94 NASDAQ -21.96 NQ100 -0.5% R2K -1.6% SP400 -1.1% SP500 -7.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 675/2.94 bln/2039 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 625/1.50 bln/2461

3:30 pm : The CRB Commodity Index gave up 1.3% this session. That leaves it down 3.5% week-to-date.

Oil has been one of the weakest components for the CRB. Crude oil prices dropped 4% in the prior session and surrendered another 3.3% this time around. Oil prices now stand at $79.97 per barrel, below the $80 per barrel mark for the first time in more than one month. Their weakness this session was exacerbated by a larger-than-expected build in weekly oil inventories.

Natural gas prices surrendered a more modest 0.7% this session. Contracts closed at $3.98 per MMBtu.

Precious metals were mixed. Gold prices oscillated for most of the session, but were able to close with a 0.5% gain at $1175 per ounce. Silver settled a sharp 1.7% lower at $17.53 per ounce. DJ30 -67.64 NASDAQ -23.88 SP500 -8.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 648/2.51 bln/2049 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 614/1.18 bln/2471

3:00 pm : Stocks have extended their afternoon slide so that the S&P 500 is at a fresh afternoon low and back beneath its 50-day moving average. The 50-day moving average often marks a point of considerable resistance or support, but stocks have moved across it with relative ease this session.

Volatility has picked up with the stock market's recent slide. More specifically, the Volatility Index is now up 10%.

Trading volume has been strong all session long. An hour still remains in today's trade, but already more than 1 billion shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE. DJ30 -78.07 NASDAQ -23.49 SP500 -8.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 642/2.29 bln/2042 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 601/1.07 bln/2453

2:30 pm : Stocks have slowly drifted downward from their recent trading range to trade at a new afternoon low. The steady slide comes as weakness intensified against energy stocks and industrial stocks -- both sectors are down 1.6% at the moment.

Pressure has also intensified against the materials sector, such that it is now down 1.0% after it had traded with a modest midsession gain. DJ30 -75.28 NASDAQ -20.10 SP500 -7.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 689/2.07 bln/1980 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 662/968 mln/2380

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade in a relatively tight range with a modest loss. The lack of movement comes in stark contrast to the whipsaw trade that governed action in the early going, when stocks gapped down to a loss of more than 1% only to rebound to a slight gain.

Though the tone of trade remains improved from earlier levels, overseas markets were less fortunate. In turn, the Dow Jones World Index is down 1.1% at the moment. Excluding the U.S., the World Index is down 1.6%. DJ30 -35.45 NASDAQ -14.07 SP500 -3.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 815/1.92 bln/1838 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 844/891 mln/2196

1:30 pm : Unable to reclaim a gain, the stock market has been chopping along with a modest loss for the past hour.

Volatility has picked back up in recent trade, though. In turn, the Volatility Index is up 4% at the moment. It had been up 14% to a new three-month high earlier this session.

Meanwhile, Treasuries continue to drift downward. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is now up a relatively tame seven ticks after it had been up some 20 ticks earlier this session. DJ30 -24.04 NASDAQ -13.24 SP500 -2.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 765/1.79 bln/1886 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 812/835 mln/2224

1:00 pm : Sellers dropped the S&P 500 for an early loss of more 1%, which put the benchmark index below its 50-day moving average for the first time in two months, but support at a technical trend line has brought buyers back to action.

Weakness from the prior session's selloff carried over into this morning's trade amid persistent concerns about the fiscal health of Greece, which has seen the yields on its debt climb amid increased risk aversion. Yields also increased on Portugal's debt, which has been placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody's.

While losses were steep and broad in the early going, the broader market was able to rebound when the S&P 500 came in contact with the 1158 line. The bounce struggled a bit when the stock market came back in touch with its 50-day average, but a pullback by the greenback and renewed strength in the financial sector provided an additional boost.

An interest in safety has driven many to the dollar, which is up for its third straight session against competing currencies. The buck had been up more than 1% to a near one-year high, but it has since pared that advance to now trade with a 0.6% gain.

The financial sector had been down nearly 2% at its session low, but it has since rallied to a gain. The sector has eased off of its high, but is still up 0.4% for the session. Better-than-expected earnings have made XL Capital (XL 18.26, +1.09) a primary leader among financial plays.

Momentum from the broader market's rebound took both the Dow and the S&P 500 into positive ground, but the gain proved momentary as stocks are now back in the red. Still, the stock market's current loss is quite modest when compared with the 1.3% loss it saw at its session low.

With stocks up from their lows Treasuries have trimmed their gains. Sharp gains in the benchmark 10-year Note had dropped its yield below 3.50% for the first time this year, but moderated gains now have the yield at 3.55%.

Economic data has done little for trade for the second straight session, but that's mostly due to a lack of surprise. More specifically, the April ISM Service Index came in at 55.4, which was just below the 56.0 that had been widely forecast. Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Report for April showed a slightly greater-than-expected 32,000 private payroll additions. DJ30 -30.31 NASDAQ -16.63 SP500 -3.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 739/1.67 bln/1893 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 775/785 mln/2234

12:30 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 recently poked into positive territory, but the pair has since returned to the red. However, their losses remain modest, especially compared with the steep losses that stocks had traded with earlier this session.

Treasuries have trimmed their gains. The benchmark 10-year Note had been up sharply this morning, such that its yield fell all the way back below 3.50% for the first time this year. Its yield is now at 3.55% as the Note holds on to a 10-tick gain. DJ30 -16.71 NASDAQ -16.83 SP500 -2.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 805/1.55 bln/1839 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 870/730 mln/2132

12:00 pm : The euro has rallied against the greenback, such that the Dollar Index has seen its advance this session halved to a 0.6% gain.

The greenback's pullback has made it easier for the stock market to overcome resistance. In fact, the stock market now trades with a slight gain after it had been down more than 1%.

Renewed strength in the financial sector has also provided a boost to the broader market. After wavering in recent activity, the financial sector has spiked to a 0.9% gain. Financials had been down as much as 1.9% at their session low. XL Capital (XL 18.35, +1.18) is a primary leader among financial plays. The company posted after the prior session strong quarterly earnings results. DJ30 +13.30 NASDAQ -4.06 SP500 +1.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 935/1.38 bln/1684 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1075/668 mln/1917

11:30 am : Action has become rather choppy as technical resistance challenges the stock market's recent run and leadership from the financial sector starts to fade -- financials had swung from a sharp loss to a modest gain, but the sector is now back in the red to trade with a fractional loss.

Meanwhile, gold has made its way back into positive ground. The yellow metal is now up 0.4% to $1173.20 per ounce. Despite its strength, gold stocks have been unable to shake free from broader market weakness. Even Yamana Gold (AUY 10.49, -0.08), which announced a 50% hike to its annual dividend, continues to contend with a marked loss. DJ30 -22.53 NASDAQ -13.74 SP500 -3.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 760/1.21 bln/1844 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 701/595 mln/2260

11:00 am : Early strength was limited to telecom stocks (+0.2%) and consumer staples stocks (+0.5%), but financials have been a primary leader in the stock market's move from its morning low. Financials had been down as much as 1.9% in the early going, but the sector has since rallied to a 0.2% gain.

Though financials have helped lead the broader market up considerably from its morning low, resistance has kept the Dow from turning positive and the S&P 500 from making a sustainable push past its 50-day moving average, which was breached this morning for the first time in two months. DJ30 -28.29 NASDAQ -16.50 SP500 -4.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 708/1.06 bln/1867 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 596/533 mln/2340

10:30 am : Though the stock market has recovered some from its opening gap down, commodity prices are still under stiff pressure, such that the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.7% to trade below its 200-day moving average for the first time in roughly three months.

Oil prices have been exceptionally weak in recent trade. Crude oil prices closed the prior session of pit trade with a 4% loss and recently extended their slide another 3.4% to $79.90 per barrel with the release of the latest weekly inventory data, which showed a build of 2.76 million barrels when a build of 1 million barrels had been widely expected.

Natural gas prices are a moderate 0.3% lower at $4.00 per MMBtu at the moment.

As for precious metals, gold gave up an early gain so that it now trades with a 0.4% loss at $1164.90 per ounce. Silver has been slapped for a 3.0% loss that has left it to trade at $17.30 per ounce. DJ30 -43.23 NASDAQ -23.22 SP500 -6.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 599/804 mln/1933 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 507/421 mln/2385

10:00 am : At its worst point this morning, the S&P 500 breached the 1160 line, which was last touched more than one month ago, but the broad market measure has since rebounded to cut its morning loss in half.

However, the move has slowed with the release of the April ISM Service Index, which came in at 55.4. The April reading was just below the 56.0 that had been widely forecast after a 55.4 had been posted in March. DJ30 -43.01 NASDAQ -22.31 SP500 -7.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 552/528 mln/1928 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 501/298 mln/2348

09:45 am : Stiff selling pressure ahead of the opening bell caused stocks to start the session with a sizable loss that put the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average for the first time in two months. Though stocks have started to pull up from their opening gap down, the broader market will now likely face resistance at the 50-day moving average, which is just below the 1170 line.

The greenback has given up a modest portion of its early gain. However, it still sports a robust 1.0% gain against competing currencies.

Defensive-oriented consumer staples stocks (+0.3%) and telecom stocks (+0.3%) make up the only two major sectors that currently trade in positive territory. Weakness is widespread throughout the rest of the market. DJ30 -75.43 NASDAQ -33.95 SP500 -12.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 380/375 mln/2050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 309/214 mln/2472

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.80. Premarket pressure has intensified to take stock futures sharply lower. In turn, the broader market looks like it will start the session with a sizable loss and below its 50-day moving average for the first time in two months. The selling this morning comes amid continued concerns about the fiscal health of Greece, which now contends with protesting countrymen in response to announced austerity measures. Meanwhile, credit analysts at Moody's have placed Portugal's debt on review for possible downgrade. Those themes have given support to the greenback, which now trades just shy of a one-year high as it boasts a 1.2% gain against a basket of foreign currencies. The themes have also made economic data an afterthought for the second straight session. As such, an ADP Employment Report that showed a slightly greater-than-expected 32,000 private payroll additions for April has done nothing to improve the mood this morning. Market participants get the April ISM Service Index at 10:00 AM ET and weekly oil inventory data at 10:30 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.30. U.S. equity futures remain relatively weak, but markets in Europe aren't in much better shape as Germany's DAX drops to a 0.7% loss amid widespread weakness. Deutsche Bank (DB) is the heaviest drag on the broader bourse at the moment. Shares of DB are down nearly 3% to trade below their 200-day average on the DAX. In France, the CAC is off by 1.3%. GDF Suez has led declining issues to a near 6-to-1 edge over advancers. Britain's FTSE has fallen to a 1.0% loss. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is currently one of the weakest names, but BP Plc (BP) has shown strength. However, credit analysts at Moody's recently revised their outlook on BP's ratings to negative. Credit analysts at Moody's also put Portugal's Aa2 ratings on review for possible downgrade. Yields on Portugal's debt had already climbed ahead of the announcement as global participants remain concerned about the fiscal health of many European countries. Such concerns have also taken the euro below the 1.3 level against the U.S. dollar for the first time in one year. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei remains closed, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng sank 2.1% as 41 of its 43 components retreated into the red. HSBC (HBC) was among the heaviest drags, due to the stock's weight in the market and its near 2% loss. Hong Kong Electric and CLP Holdings were the only two names to stage gains. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite staged a 0.8% gain as Air China led advancing issues to a near 8-to-1 advantage over decliners.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.80. Stock futures have drifted to morning lows as the greenback garners additional support. The Dollar Index is now up nearly 0.7% and less than one point shy of its one-year high. Market participants have been uninspired by the latest ADP Employment Report, which was released at 8:15 AM ET and indicated that 32,000 jobs were added to private payrolls during April. That's slightly more than the 30,000 additions that had been widely expected. As for the prior month's payroll data, it was revised upward to reflect an increase of 19,000 jobs from the 23,000 decline that had been initially reported.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.30. Weakness from the prior session's selloff continues to linger. That has overseas markets in the red and U.S. stock futures trailing fair value by a modest margin. As a result, many market participants continue to pursue the dollar, which has extended its climb this week with another 0.5% gain this morning. The Dollar Index now stands near a one-year high. Earnings haven't had much of a sway since the number of widely-held companies making reports has dwindled, but at 8:15 AM ET the April ADP Employment Report will give some insight into the government's official nonfarm payrolls tally for April (due Friday). The ISM Service Index for April follows at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly oil inventory data are due at 10:30 AM ET.

07:24 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50.

07:24 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...20327.54...-435.50...-2.10%.

07:24 am : FTSE...5376.49...-34.80...-0.60%. DAX...5972.97...-33.80...-0.60%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
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questions@thestrategylab.com
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