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 Post subject: April 29th Thursday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +11.60
PostPosted: Thu Apr 29, 2010 3:23 pm 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=73&t=509.

Quote:
Today's results are 8 wins : 3 losses. Had some mid-day family distractions that prevented me from trading within a nice directional price movement upwards (see #FuturesTrades log above). Upon returning in the late trading session...had a string of consecutive winners that gave me my profit goal of the trading day.

Trading Tip: Trading without a plan (I'm not talking about an entry/exit strategy) is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +11.60 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
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Dow In Triple-Digit Rally
By Julianne Pepitone, staff reporter
April 29, 2010: 4:25 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks jumped Thursday, with the blue-chip Dow index ending more than 120 points higher, as investors reacted to a rise in Exxon Mobil earnings and brushed off concerns about European debt problems.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 122 points, or 1.1%, to end at 11,167.32. The S&P 500 index (SPX) added 15 points, or 1.3%, to settle at 1,206.77. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 40 points, or 1.6%, to end at 2,511.92.

Gains were broad based, with 27 of the 30 Dow components ending higher. Financial shares led the advance, and the tech sector got a boost after Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) said late Wednesday it will buy struggling smart phone maker Palm (PALM) for $1.2 billion, although HP's stock ended 0.8% lower.

"The market is enjoying one of the best earnings seasons in recent history," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. "It's more than enough to shift focus from Europe and shed concerns about their debt."

On Wednesday, the Dow rose back above 11,000 after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and said the economy is improving. The central bank's pledge to keep interest rates low helped investors turn their focus away from the debt issues in Europe.

European concerns easing: On Tuesday, rating agency Standard and Poor's downgraded the sovereign debt ratings of Greece to junk status and lowered Portugal's investment grade status. On Wednesday, S&P also downgraded its investment grade rating of Spain's long-term debt.

Worries about Greece have abated recently as European officials seem to be nearing agreement on a rescue package for the debt-laden nation.

"We already knew part of this story months ago," Hogan said. "Maybe the ratings agencies took time actually to downgrade, but we've known these countries are in trouble."

Greece's economy is one of the smaller ones in the euro zone, Hogan noted, so its debt rating is not as much of a concern as that of a larger country like Spain or Italy. Even though Spain was downgraded Wednesday, the move was not major because it remains investment grade, Hogan said.

As long as a country's debt is investment grade -- which means it can still be used as collateral -- any downgrades are considered merely "warning shots," Hogan said. Unless a major economy's debt is downgraded to junk status, euro zone concern should remain contained, he added.
Fed: Economy improving

Earnings: Several big corporations reported their quarterly results before the opening bell Thursday.

"Four times a year we forget about everything but earnings," Hogan said. "This is the biggest day of the busiest week for earnings, and luckily the stream has been good."

Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) reported a surge in earnings but still missed Wall Street expectations. The oil giant said it earned $1.33 per share in the first quarter, which fell short of the $1.41 per share forecast by a consensus of analyst opinions from Thomson Reuters. The stock closed 0.9% lower.

Aetna (AET, Fortune 500) managed to beat expectations when it reported operating earnings of 98 cents per share for the first quarter, compared to 96 cents in the prior year. Excluding certain charges, EPS was 77 cents, the insurer said. Analysts had forecast EPS of 68 cents.

Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) reported a profit for its third quarter that managed to edge above expectations. The company reported earnings of 83 cents per share, which was slightly lower than its year-earlier EPS of 84 cents. Analysts expected EPS of 82 cents.

Viacom (VIA) reported a surge in profit for the quarter, with diluted earnings of 40 cents per share. That was a 38% jump from 29 cents per share in the year-earlier quarter.

Economy: The Senate officially started debate of Wall Street reform late Wednesday, after three days of standoff and three failed votes to move forward. Republicans waived their right to block the bill, after it became clear Democrats had clinched the 60 votes needed to end the filibuster.

The government released its weekly report on initial claims for unemployment benefits before the opening bell Thursday. The number of first-time filers fell 11,000 to 448,000 in the week ended April 24. Analysts expected a drop to 445,000 new claims.

Also on Thursday morning, the House Financial Services committee held a hearing on potential implications of the Greece crisis.

Outlook: "Earnings never happen in a vacuum," said Hogan, the analyst at Jefferies. "This is a very busy reporting day, but by next week it will begin tapering off."

But Hogan noted economic data "generally have been positive lately," with good news outweighing the lingering bad.

He added: "What should we should think about when buying stocks is: What's this company's ability to earn money?"
0:00 /2:53Bears call out stock market surge

World markets: European shares, including Britain's FTSE 100, the CAC 40 in France and Germany's DAX, ended higher.

But Asian markets continued to struggle. The Shanghai Composite tumbled 1.1% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.8%. Japan was closed for a holiday.

The dollar and commodities: The dollar declined 0.2% against the euro and 0.8% against the British pound, but rose 0.1% against the Japanese yen.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose $1.95 to settle at $85.17 a barrel.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $3 to end at $1,168.80 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices inched up, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note falling to 3.74%. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers almost four to one on volume of 1.4 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners three to one, on volume of 3 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:35 pm : High-volume buying gave the stock market its best single-session percentage gain in more than one month. The S&P 500 is now just 1% below its 52-week high, which was set earlier this week. Strength was steady and broad based for the entire session.

The positive tone came after Greece, Portugal, and Spain saw their bond yields contract. Such a development is suggestive of calmed concern about the fiscal health of those countries, at least for the time being. The news also drove down the dollar, which closed with a 0.4% loss against competing currencies.

Gold, a traditional safe haven, also fell out of favor. The yellow metal closed pit trade priced at $1158.80 per ounce, down 0.3%.

Oil prices gained 2.3% to close trade at $85.18 per barrel. Natural gas was pressured by bearish inventory data; prices settled 8.5% lower at $3.98 per MMBtu.

The divergence in energy prices did nothing for the energy sector, which finished the session with a gain of just 0.1%. The sector's relative weakness was largely the result of a drop by shares of BP Plc (BP 52.56, -4.78) to a multimonth low amid word that costs to clean up its recent oil spill will be more than initially expected.

Concern about BP translated into a gain for Chevron (CVX 82.29, +1.67). The Dow component helped its case with a near 6% increase in its quarterly dividend. Fellow Dow component and integrated energy giant Exxon Mobil (XOM 68.66, -0.53) slipped, though; it came short of the consensus earnings estimate.

Consumer staples giant and Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG 62.20, -0.97) was pressured even though it posted an upside earnings surprise. The company's guidance was a bit tepid, however, and many market participants have come to expect bottom line beats and upside forecasts.

With a 2.5% spike, financials were the best overall performers this session. Gains within the sector were broad, but REITs were especially strong.

There was also a bit of merger and acquisition news to keep the mood of market participants propped up as Palm (PALM 5.84, +1.21) announced it will be acquired for $1.2 billion by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 52.88, -0.40). The announcement brings to an end speculation about a takeover of the handset maker.

Trading volume was strong for the fourth straight session as 1.4 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE. The pickup in volume is often suggestive of increased conviction among market participants.

The economic calendar was sparse ahead of the first quarter GDP reading. The only items were initial jobless claims and continuing claims. Initial claims for the week ended April 24 totaled 448,000, which is slightly above the consensus estimate of 445,000 initial claims, while continuing claims came in at 4.65 million, which was higher than the 4.62 million continuing claims that had been widely forecast.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+2.5%), Industrials (+2.1%), Consumer Discretionary (+2.1%), Health Care (+1.3%), Tech (+1.0%), Telecom (+0.8%), Materials (+0.8%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Energy (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: (None)
Unchanged: Utilities DJ30 +122.05 NASDAQ +40.19 NQ100 +1.8% R2K +2.1% SP400 +1.5% SP500 +15.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2010/2.99 bln/696 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2305/1.41 bln/744

3:35 pm : Commodities were slightly higher as the dollar sold off this session following its recent gains.

May silver rallied this session. It closed 2.4% higher at $18.55 per ounce. June gold was unable to take advantage of the weak dollar; it traded marginally lower for most of the session and closed down $3.00 at $1158.80 per ounce.

Energy commodities traded 0.9% lower this session. This is misleading, though. Gasoline, crude and heating oil all finished noticeably higher. However, natural gas was obliterated this session following a greater-than-expected inventory build reported this morning. Natural gas closed 8.5% lower at $3.98 per MMBtu. On the other hand, crude oil is now up over 5% in less than two sessions. The June contract closed 2.3% higher at $85.18 per barrel. DJ30 +130.44 NASDAQ +38.76 SP500 +15.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1873/2.43 bln/822 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2240/1.03 bln/776

3:00 pm : Stocks have started to ease off of their session highs. While gains remain broad based, energy stocks and utilities stocks have both slipped into the red so that each sector now trades with a 0.1% loss.

Treasuries have ticked higher amid the slip. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is now up eight ticks to a session high. DJ30 +117.59 NASDAQ +35.55 SP500 +14.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1889/2.21 bln/792 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2277/935 mln/741

2:30 pm : The stock market has stretched its gain so that it now trades at a fractionally improved session high. The general direction of movement this afternoon remains sideways, however.

Volume remains strong. That suggests high participation and considerable conviction among market participants. Heightened trading volume has become increasingly common in recent sessions. It had lagged for several consecutive months. DJ30 +142.00 NASDAQ +39.11 SP500 +17.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1926/2.07 bln/756 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2333/860 mln/688

2:00 pm : The stock market has entered into a rather tight trading range, which has made for little excitement. Still, stocks continue to sport impressive gains. In fact, the stock market is on its way to its best single-session percentage gain in more than one month.

Financials continue to provide the most leadership. The sector is now up 2.6%. Consumer discretionary plays are close behind with a 2.3% gain, but consumer discretionary stocks make up little more than 10% of the S&P 500 market cap and financials make up nearly 17% of it. DJ30 +144.95 NASDAQ +37.92 SP500 +17.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1865/1.90 bln/798 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2287/785 mln/720

1:30 pm : The at-record $32 billion auction of 7-year Notes drew a yield of 3.21% with a bid-to-cover of nearly 3-to-1 and a 59.5% take rate by foreign central banks. Treasuries responded positively to the news, but action in the space remains muted amid the stock market's strength. The benchmark 10-year Note is now up four ticks so that its yield stands at 3.75%. DJ30 +132.63 NASDAQ +34.33 SP500 +15.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1839/1.77 bln/814 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2248/726 mln/746

1:05 pm : Stocks have spent the entire session sporting strong, broad-based gains on above-average volume.

Buying interest began ahead of the opening bell as Europe's major bourses staged solid gains amid a contraction in the yields of Greece, Portugal, and Spain, each of which recently had its credit rating downgraded by credit analysts at Standard & Poor's. The contraction of yields also won support for the euro and, as a consequence, drove down the dollar, which remains 0.5% for the worse.

Though the economic calendar was sparse, it didn't contain any truly negative surprises. More specifically, initial jobless claims for the week ended April 24 totaled 448,000, which is slightly above the consensus estimate of 445,000 initial claims, while continuing claims came in at 4.65 million, which was higher than the 4.62 million continuing claims that had been widely forecast.

Earnings reports generally remain upbeat, but the market continues to reward the companies that both beat the consensus and issue strong forecasts. As such, First Solar (FSLR 148.94, +20.81) is atop the list of this session's strongest performers by percent gained.

Meanwhile, Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG 61.99, -1.19) is under pressure after it posted an upside earnings surprise and issued tepid guidance. Peer Colgate-Palmolive (CL 84.98, -0.02) has been lackluster, despite a bottom line beat of its own.

Chevron (CVX 82.77, +2.15), also a Dow component, is a leader among blue chips after it announced a near 6% increase in its quarterly dividend. Fellow Dow component and integrated energy giant Exxon Mobil (XOM 68.82, -0.37) has been mixed after it came short of the consensus earnings estimate. Both have been helped by a 2.2% gain in oil prices, which are now back above the mark of $85 per barrel, and potential reputational risk for BP Plc (BP 52.31, -5.03) amid concerns regarding its recent oil spill.

Financials are the best performers overall this session. The sector is up 2.3% to lead the S&P 500 at the moment. Strength within the sector is broad with 73 of its 79 sector members in higher ground.

Support for Palm (PALM 5.80, +1.17) has helped push the Nasdaq out in front of the other major equity averages. The stock is up 25% after it announced that it will be acquired for $1.2 billion by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 52.81, -0.48). DJ30 +141.50 NASDAQ +37.23 SP500 +15.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1844/1.64 bln/785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2253/682 mln/736

12:30 pm : A positive bias continues to govern trade this session. That has helped hike up all three major indices by more than 1%.

Amid such strength, Treasuries have been relegated to the sideline. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is relatively unchanged at the moment. Treasuries will come into closer focus at the top of the hour, when results from an auction of 7-year Notes are released. DJ30 +124.32 NASDAQ +28.41 SP500 +14.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1686/1.49 bln/914 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2174/595 mln/781

12:00 pm : Of the 30 stocks in the Dow, only four have failed to put together a gain. The short list of laggards includes Procter & Gamble (PG 61.40, -1.77), which actually reported this morning an upside earnings surprise, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 52.85, -0.44), which will acquire Palm (PALM 5.77, +1.14) for $1.2 billion, Travelers (TRV 50.90, -0.22), and Microsoft (MSFT 30.88, -0.03).

Chevron (CVX 82.41, +1.79) is presently a primary leader among blue chips. The company announced a near 6% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.72 per share. DJ30 +127.94 NASDAQ +28.01 SP500 +15.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1679/1.35 bln/912 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2161/541 mln/772

11:30 am : Financials (+1.9%) and consumer discretionary plays (+1.9%) continue to sport some of the best overall gains.

Within the finance sector, REITs are outperforming. More specifically, diversified REIT's are up 3.9%, retail REITs are up 4.1%, and residential REITs are up 5.1%. Thrifts and mortgage companies make up the only weak industry group within the financial sector -- they are down fractionally at the moment.

As for consumer discretionary stocks, auto retailers are up 5.4% amid an upside earnings surprise and forecast from O'Reilly Auto (ORLY 49.98, +3.64) and hotels are up 3.8% amid better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance from Starwood Hotels (HOT 55.87, +2.60). DJ30 +123.33 NASDAQ +24.41 SP500 +14.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1636/1.20 bln/931 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2138/482 mln/762

11:00 am : Buyers have stepped up their efforts in recent action. In turn, the S&P 500 has ascended to a fresh session high well above 1200.

This session's advance remains broad based as advancing issues outnumber decliners by more than 4-to-1 in the broader market. First Solar (FSLR 148.70, +20.57) and Akamai (AKAM 38.18, +5.00) are two of the strongest performers in the S&P 500 and are also among the top 20 most actively traded names by volume this session. Both beat Wall Street's earnings expectations for the latest quarter and were subsequently upgraded. DJ30 +115.55 NASDAQ +25.02 SP500 +14.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1671/999 mln/821 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2194/389 mln/656

10:30 am : Oil prices have pushed up to $85.25 per barrel, which makes for a 2.4% gain. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have surrendered early gains so that they now stand at $4.12 per MMBtu, down 5.5%. The move comes after weekly inventory data showed a larger-than-expected build of 83 bcf.

Precious metals are mixed at the moment. More specifically, gold prices are down 0.3% to $1168.30 per ounce, while silver prices are up 0.7% to $18.23 per ounce. DJ30 +87.97 NASDAQ +19.19 SP500 +12.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1548/788 mln/896 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2063/300 mln/739

10:00 am : The S&P 500 made its way back above the 1200 line in recent trade, but it has started to drift back below the mark. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has made a much more pronounced push lower, though it still trades with a solid gain.

The dollar has pared some of its losses as the euro gives up its gain. The euro is now flat against the dollar and the Dollar Index is now down 0.3%. DJ30 +61.51 NASDAQ +13.56 SP500 +8.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1448/541 mln/886 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1961/205 mln/748

09:45 am : Stocks are up with broad-based gains. Financials are especially strong for the second straight session; they are currently up 1.2%.

Retailers, which lagged in the prior session, have also garnered support. The group has spiked to a 1.4% gain, which has helped drive the consumer discretionary sector 1.3% higher. Consumer discretionary plays currently make up the best performing sector.

Tech is a bit of a laggard, however. The sector is up 0.4%, but that's not even half of the broader market's present gain. DJ30 +75.19 NASDAQ +15.99 SP500 +10.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1533/394 mln/727 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2088/146 mln/573

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.30. Stock futures continue to point to a higher start for the session as buyers welcome a weaker dollar, strong gains among Europe's major bourses, and another raft of better-than-expected earnings reports. Both the dollar's dip and the gains in Europe come primarily in response to some contraction in the bond yields of Greece, Portugal, and Spain, each of which recently had its credit rating downgraded by credit analysts at Standard & Poor's. Meanwhile, many market participants continue to read over another round of earnings reports. The reports have featured plenty of bottom-line beats that send a signal of an improved operating environment, so much that the market has come to expect above-consensus results and strong forecasts. For that reason, premarket participants have been uninspired by the latest from Procter & Gamble (PG), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), and Visa (V). However, it has made an earnings miss from energy giant Exxon Mobil (XOM) quite glaring.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.30. Europe's major bourses are up solidly amid better-than-expected consumer confidence data and German unemployment. Germany's DAX is up 0.7% at the moment. It is currently led by Daimler (DAI) and E.On, while Muenchener Rue acts as a drag. In France, the CAC is up 1.1%. Energy giant Total (TOT) is a primary source of strength in the French index. In contrast, oil and gas plays BP PLC (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) have undercut Britain's FTSE. Still, the FTSE has held on to a 0.8% gain amid support from HSBC (HBC). Meanwhile, the euro has gained ground against the greenback so that it is now at 1.3253 per dollar. Its advance has been helped by a slight contraction in Greek bond yields, as well as those of Portugal and Spain. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite fell 1.1%. PetroChina (PTR) and China Petroleum (SNP) were primary sources of weakness, which offset gains by banking issues Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial & Commercial Bank. However, Industrial & Commercial Bank was weak in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which shed 0.8%. China Mobile (CHL) was a primary source of weakness, though. Japan's Nikkei was closed for holiday observance.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.30. Stock futures remain near their morning highs in the wake of the latest jobless claims count. Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 24 totaled 448,000, which is slightly above the consensus estimate of 445,000 initial claims. The latest tally is down from the prior week's initial claims count of 459,000, which was revised moderately higher. Continuing claims came in at 4.65 million, but that was higher than the 4.62 million continuing claims that had been widely forecast. It was down from the prior week's upwardly revised continuing claims count of 4.66 million, though.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.50. Stock futures are up firmly as the dollar dips to a 0.5% loss against competing currencies. Results remain strong on the earnings front with Visa (V), Procter & Gamble (PG), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Baidu.com (BIDU) each beating on the bottom line. Baidu.com also announced a 10-for-1 stock split. Meanwhile, Palm (PALM) will be acquired by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) for $5.70 per share in cash. The price marks a 23% premium over PALM's closing price in the prior session. Weekly jobless claims data are due at the bottom of the hour. Results from an auction of 7-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET. Treasury Secretary Geithner will speak at 2:30 PM ET.

06:53 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50.

06:52 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...20778.92...-170.50...-0.80%.

06:52 am : FTSE...5625.13...+38.50...+0.70%. DAX...6113.70...+29.40...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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