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 Post subject: April 12th Monday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +2.80
PostPosted: Tue Apr 13, 2010 9:25 am 
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Dow: 11,000 At The Finish Line
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
April 12, 2010: 6:58 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks managed gains Monday, with the Dow industrials closing above 11,000 for the first time in 18 months, after European leaders made loans available to Greece, tempering fears that the nation might have to default on its debt.

But lingering concerns ahead of the start of the quarterly reporting period limited the gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 8 points or 0.1%, finishing at 11,005.97, the highest close since Sept. 26, 2008, when it ended at 11,143.13.

"11,000 is a nice number but it's more psychological than anything," said Jim Dunigan, chief investment officer at PNC Wealth Management. "The S&P is getting close to 1,200 and that's another big round number."

The S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 2 points, or 0.2%, ending at 1196.48, an 18-month high. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) edged up 4 points, or 0.2%, to the highest finish since June 19, 2008.

After the close, Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) ignited the quarterly reporting period. The aluminum maker posted earnings of 10 cents per share versus a loss of 59 cents a year earlier, meeting the expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Alcoa reported revenue of $4.89 billion versus $4.147 billion a year ago. Analysts expected revenue of $5.238 billion.

"Alcoa was a pretty good start, but expectations for this earnings period are high and there's the potential for disappointment," Dunigan said.

First-quarter earnings are expected to have risen 37% versus the prior year, while revenue is expected to have risen 10%, according to Thomson Reuters.

Gains are expected to be driven by financials, materials and consumer discretionary -- the sector that includes autos and retailers.

Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) reports results on Tuesday, while Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) are due later in the week.

Stocks closed higher Friday at the end of another up week for stocks. The market has risen in seven of the last eight weeks as economic confidence has replaced jitters about a global slowdown that felled markets in January.

Both the Dow and S&P 500 stand at roughly 18-month highs, while the Nasdaq stands at the highest point in nearly two years.
Here come the profit reports

Greece: Investors got another bout of good news on the global front over the weekend, when European leaders agreed to make loans available to debt-burdened Greece.

The 16 countries that use the euro agreed to provide a collective $40 billion, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to kick in $13.5 billion.

The loans, should Greece choose to access them, would have interest rates that are lower than what lenders had been requiring in recent days to hold Greek debt. Last Thursday, Greece's borrowing costs hit an all-time high as investors worried the country might default.

Greece is seen as something of the tip of the iceberg, with investors worrying that a default would exacerbate problems in other debt-burdened nations. Greece is one of the so-called PIIGS, along with Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain.

Recession questions: Although most economists think that the recession is over, the panel of economists who are responsible for specifying changes in the business cycle aren't sure yet.

The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that it is premature to say whether the recession that began in December 2007 has ended. The group is apparently wary to call an end when there is still the threat of a so-called double dip recession.
0:00 /3:09Tax time: Are you ready?

World markets: In overseas trading, European markets were mixed, with London's FTSE up 0.1%, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX both little changed. Asian markets were mixed, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng down 0.3% and the Japanese Nikkei up 0.4%.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.85% from 3.89% late Friday. The 10-year had risen as high as 4% Monday, an 18-month high. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The dollar and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $3 to settle at $1,162.20 per ounce.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery fell 58 cents to settle at $84.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers eight to seven on volume of 976 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners seven to six on volume of 2.06 billion shares.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : An agreement by ministers of the European Union to provide financial aid to Greece drove down the dollar and helped stocks hit new 52-week highs, but overall gains remained modest as market participants exercised caution ahead of earnings season.

During the weekend European Union ministers agreed to offer to Greece 30 billion euros at below market rates in order to help the country get its financial house in order. Though the offer brings to an end speculation over the type and size of aid that would be offered, it does not explicitly address continued concern about the health of Portugal, Spain, and Italy -- the rest of the PIGS contingent.

Still, with the most immediate of concerns regarding systemic risk in the EU addressed the euro was able to stage a strong gain against the dollar. Although strength in the euro helped send a basket of foreign currencies to a 0.4% gain against the greenback, the buck managed to pare its losses as the initial response to the headline faded -- overnight the Dollar Index had been down as much as 1.0%.

Nonetheless, news of aid for Greece and a dip by the dollar helped the broader equity market continue its upward trend, such that it even set a slightly improved 52-week high as it advanced for its sixth time in seven sessions.

Volatility fell as a result the persistently positive tone in the stock market. In fact, the Volatility Index, often euphemistically dubbed the Fear Index, closed 3.9% lower. It had been down as much as 5.6% to a new 30-month low during the session.

Despite the dollar's downturn and a positive tone in the broader market, materials stocks lagged for virtually the entire session. The sector settled with a 0.5% loss, which may have been worse if not for leadership by Alcoa (AA 14.57, +0.18). The Dow component came into focus ahead of its latest quarterly results, which mark the unofficial start to earnings season. Market participants look to the company for a cue regarding whether profits are driven by demand or continued cost cuts.

Amid uncertainty regarding the health of corporate profits, market participants kept a cap on gains. Technical resistance also played a hand as the S&P 500 bumps up against 1200. Those factors also weighed on share volume as many traders opted to sit on the sidelines.

Deal making was in full speed, however. Specifically, Haliburton (HAL 31.50, -0.07) will purchase Boots & Coots (WEL 2.95, +0.60), Cerberus will take private Dyncorp International (DCP 17.41, +5.41), and Reliant Energy (RRI 4.53, +0.58) and Mirant (MIR 12.68, +1.95) will engage in an all stock merger. Meanwhile, California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI 20.95, +0.21) announced that it is seeking strategic alternatives that may include a sale or merger.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+0.5%), Utilities (+0.4%), Tech (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.3%), Energy (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-0.5%), Telecom (-0.2%), Health Care (-0.2%)
Unchanged: Consumer Discretionary DJ30 +8.62 NASDAQ +3.82 NQ100 +0.1% R2K +0.3% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +2.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1473/2.06 bln/1211 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1737/973 mln/1304

3:30 pm : Major averages are trading near an afternoon low.

Meanwhile, commodities finished largely unchanged for the session. Modest weakness in precious metals and energy was offset by strength in industrial metals and soft commodities, such as cocoa, coffee, sugar and orange juice.

Natural gas was the primary laggard in the energy space this session. June natural gas closed 1.5% lower at $4.01 per MMBtu.

Crude oil straddled the $85 level for most of the session. It sold off heading into the close to finish 0.7% lower at $84.34 per barrel.

Gold and silver futures both finished marginally higher after a quiet session. June gold closed up a fraction at $1162.20 per ounce and May silver closed up 0.3% at $18.41 per ounce. Both metals sold off ~1% after the close of the pit trade, however. DJ30 +8.92 NASDAQ +3.48 SP500 +2.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1432/1.67 bln/1267 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1653/677 mln/1353

3:00 pm : Just one hour remains this session. Action has been rather quiet and trading volume has been moderate up to this point. The lack of interest among investors comes amid the primary question of whether stocks can continue their upward trend into earnings season, especially if results prove upbeat and profit takers decide to step in. DJ30 +19.65 NASDAQ +7.89 SP500 +3.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1499/1.52 bln/1179 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1769/604 mln/1218

2:30 pm : Stocks recently gave back a few points, but they continue to sport modest gains. Those gains have generally been broad based, though materials stocks (-0.3%), health care stocks (-0.2%), and now telecom stocks (-0.1%) are in the red. Still, broad-based support has helped the S&P 500 make its way as high as 1199 this session. That's its best level since September 2008.

The stock market's ascent to a new 18-month high has come in the face of ongoing questions about the overall health of the economy, persistently high unemployment, sovereign debt concerns, and the health of corporate earnings. Market participants will look to Alcoa (AA 14.71, +0.32) for a glimpse of how corporate profits are shaping up; a key consideration is whether profits grow as a result of a stronger top line or continued cost cuts. DJ30 +19.42 NASDAQ +6.51 SP500 +3.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1497/1.40 bln/1164 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1743/552 mln/1239

2:00 pm : Health care stocks and materials stocks continue to lag the broader market. The two sectors currently trade with losses of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively; they are the only two sectors to trade with losses at the moment.

The health care sector has been bogged down by weakness in shares of biotech players, like Celgene (CELG 60.57, -1.32) and Life Technologies (51.08, -1.27), while the materials sector has been undermined by losses in shares of forest products and paper players, like International Paper (IP 26.95, -0.52) and Weyerhaeuser (WY 46.05, -1.14). Shares of WY were recently downgraded by analysts at UBS.

Separately, the Treasury Budget for March was just released. It showed a deficit of $65.4 billion, which is deeper than the $62.0 billion deficit that many had forecast. DJ30 +13.15 NASDAQ +6.49 SP500 +2.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1544/1.29 bln/1103 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1787/505 mln/1181

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 continues to push up against the 1200 line as it attempts to set a fresh new 52-week high. Though modest, gains this session come as market participants follow the mantra "the trend is your friend" and refuse to fight the tape. Such a trend has carried the stock market to six gains in seven sessions. DJ30 +24.94 NASDAQ +7.44 SP500 +4.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1553/1.18 bln/1081 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1842/465 mln/1106

1:05 pm : The European Union agreed during the weekend to offer 30 billion euros of financial aid to Greece. The announcement failed to push stocks in Europe to sustainable gains, but it has helped the euro lead a basket of foreign currencies higher against the dollar.

The Dollar Index is down 0.4% at the moment. Its weakness has provided modest price support for stocks, which have mustered fractionally improved 52-week highs. The S&P 500 faces resistance at 1200, though.

Persistence of a positive bias in the stock market has pushed volatility markedly lower. As such, the Volatility Index is down 3.4% at the moment. It hit a new 30-month low earlier this session.

Merger and acquisition activity dominated corporate headlines this morning. Haliburton (HAL 31.90, +0.33) will purchase Boots & Coots (WEL 2.93, +0.58) for $3.00 per share of common stock. The price reflects a 28% premium over WEL's closing price last week.

Cerberus will take private Dyncorp International (DCP 17.41, +5.41) for $17.55 per share, a 49% premium over DCP's closing price last week.

Reliant Energy (RRI 4.50, +0.55) and Mirant (MIR 12.82, +2.09) will engage in an all stock merger.

Meanwhile, California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI 20.95, +0.21) is seeking strategic alternatives that may include a sale or merger.

Continuing with the M&A theme, The Wall Street Journal reported that merger talks between UAL Corp. (UAUA 21.53, +1.03) and US Airways (LCC 7.56, +0.24) have deepened. That has helped keep aloft shares of airline stocks and the Amex Airline Index ascend to a 1.9% gain.

There weren't any earnings reports of consequence this morning, but that changes this evening with the latest quarterly results from Alcoa (AA 14.68, +0.29). Earnings season won't pick up in earnest until next week, though. DJ30 +28.57 NASDAQ +7.28 SP500 +4.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1558/1.10 bln/1078 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1835/435 mln/1110

12:30 pm : Stock futures have started to trade in a tight range. Though lackluster, the action has preserved the stock market's modest gain, which has been enough to put it at a new 52-week high. The stock market is now up more than 7% year-to-date.

Treasuries have also traded with modest, but steady gains this session. At the moment, the benchmark 10-year Note is up nine ticks. That's enough to bring its yield down to 3.85%. Just one week ago the yield on the Note was slightly above 4.00%. DJ30 +18.74 NASDAQ +4.01 SP500 +2.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1466/1.00 bln/1151 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1709/390 mln/1215

12:00 pm : Energy stocks have climbed to a 0.7% gain, which is better than that of any other major sector. Coal play Peabody Energy (BTU 48.20, +1.85) is a primary leader at the individual level, but broader strength is shared among oil and gas explorers (+0.7%) and oil and gas transportation companies (+0.6%).

Refiners are under pressure, however. Specifically, weakness in shares of Valero (VAL 19.76, -0.25) and Sunoco (SUN 30.23, -1.4) has taken refiners to a cllective 1.2% loss. DJ30 +20.23 NASDAQ +3.12 SP500 +2.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1431/904 mln/1157 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1673/355 mln/1224

11:30 am : Volatility has fallen a sharp 3.8% this session, according to the Volatility Index. That slide has been helped by news that the European Union has agreed to offer 30 billion euros of financial aid to Greece. The agreement comes after weeks of speculation regarding what type of aid and how much of it would be offered to Greece. Though the proposed plan to offer the country support has eased concern about systemic risk in the European continent, many remain pessimistic about the financial prospects of Portugal, Spain, and Italy, which make up the other members of the PIGS contingent. DJ30 +22.07 NASDAQ +3.49 SP500 +3.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1393/810 mln/1182 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1669/317 mln/1200

11:00 am : Trade has been a bit choppy in the early going, but all the while the S&P 500 has remained in positive territory. The benchmark index is currently near its session high with a modest gain.

Airline stocks continue to climb in the wake of outsized gains late last week. At the moment, the Amex Airline Index is up 1.9%, which adds to last week's 4.0% gain. Last week's advance was largely helped by news that UAL Corp (UAUA 21.55, +1.05) and US Airways (LCC 7.58, +0.26) are in merger talks.

In the latest dose of M&A news, Haliburton (HAL31.90, +0.33) will purchase Boots & Coots (WEL 2.93, +0.58), Reliant Energy (RRI 4.45, +0.50) and Mirant (MIR 12.59, +1.86) will merge, Dyncorp International (DCP 17.48, +5.73) will be taken private by Cerberus, and California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI 21.07, +0.33) is seeking strategic alternatives that may include a sale or merger. DJ30 +25.47 NASDAQ +3.89 SP500 +3.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1363/680 mln/1167 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1696/268 mln/1159

10:30 am : Stocks are holding on to marginal gains after the first hour of trading. Strength is coming from the energy sector, it is currently up 0.7%.

Commodities in general have moved higher this morning as the dollar index recoups overnight losses stemming from strength in the euro amid a resolution on a Greek bailout.

May natural gas was recently bid up to a session high at $4.18 per MMBtu. It is currently up 2.2% at $4.16 per MMBtu.

May crude oil is near the flat line. After trading as low as $84.08 per barrel, it is currently straddling the $85 level, up fractionally at $84.98 per barrel.

Gold and Silver are essentially flat after trading modestly higher overnight as the weak dollar provided support. June gold is currently down 0.2% at $1159.60 per ounce while May silver is up 0.2% at $18.40 per ounce.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shed a modest 0.1% overnight, but that still marked its seventeenth loss in 18 sessions -- a stretch of weakness that has lost the BDI nearly 19% of its value. Prior to the weakness the BDI advanced for 19 out of 20 sessions, during which time it surged almost 40%. DJ30 +19.05 NASDAQ +2.73 SP500 +2.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1283/489 mln/11974 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1602/204 mln/1172

10:00 am : Early strength has softened, such that the major indices have started to retreat from their opening advance. The pullback has actually put the Nasdaq Composite into negative territory.

Materials stocks have come under a considerable bout of pressure. The sector was up modestly in the first few minutes of trade, but it is now down 0.3%, which is a steeper loss than that of any other major sector. Weakness in the materials sector comes even though the Dollar Index has drifted to a 0.4% loss, which puts it at a morning low.

Early movers: Trading up -- JAV +60.5%, DCP +47.9%, RPC +44.2%, WEL +24.7%, RNN +20.8%, MIR +17.3%, EDAP +16.4%, SBCF +14.1%, ATHX +12.8%, RRI +12.7%, DBTK +12.5%; Trading down -- HSM -7.5%, CLNE -6.7%, SMI -5.9%, GRT -5.5%, THD -5%

Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+0.5%), Telecom (+0.5%), Energy (+0.2%), Financials (+0.2%), Industrials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.1%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%), Health Care (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Tech DJ30 +8.39 NASDAQ -1.83 SP500 +1.19 NASDAQ Vol na NYSE Vol na

09:40 am : Despite a muted tone to premarket trade, stocks have started the session with modest, but broad-based gains. That has put the stock market at a fractionally improved 52-week high.

Financials are particularly strong, especially shares of diversified financial service players (+0.9%) and consumer finance stocks (+0.8%). Their gains have helped send the overall financial sector to an early gain of 0.5%. DJ30 +70.28 NASDAQ +3.95 SP500 +7.93 NASDAQ Vol - NYSE Vol -

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. Stock futures remain flat as premarket participants show little surprise to news that ministers of the European Union have agreed to provide Greece with up to 30 billion euros in financial aid and word that the International Monetary Fund aims to come up with a plan of its own for Greece. Those news items have helped the euro lead a basket of foreign currencies higher against the greenback. The collective indifference among market participants this morning has persisted in the face of several merger and acquisition items, including word that Haliburton (HAL) will purchase Boots & Coots (WEL) for a 28% premium, Reliant Energy (RRI) and Mirant (MIR) will merge, Dyncorp International (DCP) will be acquired by Cerberus, and California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) is seeking strategic alternatives that may include a sale or merger. There are no earnings results of consequence out this morning, but earnings season gets its unofficial start with the latest quarterly results from Alcoa (AA) after the close.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. Oil prices are under pressure in the first few moments of pit trade. Specifically, crude oil was recently quoted at $84.10 per barrel, down 1.0%. Precious metals have held up better -- gold prices were last quoted 0.1% lower at $1160 per ounce, while silver prices are unchanged at $18.35 per ounce. The lackluster trade comes in the face of a weaker dollar, which is still down 0.4% against a basket of foreign currencies.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80. U.S. stock futures remain flat, though they had traded with relative strength over night. Europe's major bourses have also given up earlier gains to now trade flat. As such, Germany's DAX is unchanged as strength in leader Allianz (AZ) is offset by laggard BASF. Meanwhile, France's CAC is also unchanged. ArcelorMittal (MT) is a primary source of weakness that leadership from financial issues BNP Paribas, AXA (AXA), and Societe Generale. Barclays (BCS) and HSBC (HBC), a pair of Britain's biggest financial players, have provided a boon to Britain's FTSE, which is stuck at the flat line amis weakness in natural resource plays BP PLC (BP), Xstrata, and Anglo American. The primary headline out of Europe is the agreement by European Union ministers to provide Greece up to 30 billion euros in financing at below-market rates. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund will meet today to discuss a financing plan to Greece of its own. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei put together a 0.4% gain amid strength in NTT Data and Dentsu. Their strength helped advancing issues finish with an advantage of more than 2-to-1 over decliners. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.3% as China Construction Bank and Industrial & Commercial Bank came under sharp pressure amid steps by officials to tighten policy on real estate. HSBC was able to put together a strong gain, though. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.5%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. News that ministers of the European Union have agreed to provide Greece up to 30 billion euros in financing at below-market rates and that the International Monetary Fund will meet today to discuss financing for Greece through a multiyear stand-by arrangement has helped to decrease the cost to insure Greece's bonds against default, according to reports. The planned offering of aid to Greece, at least from the EU, has also helped send the euro higher and the Dollar Index down 0.3% this morning. As for equities, action is generally lackluster in Europe and stock futures for the major U.S. indices are flat. There haven't been any economic items or corporate announcements of wide interest this morning, but Alcoa (AA) unofficially starts earnings season with its latest quarterly results after the close.

06:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80.

06:30 am : Nikkei...11251.90...+47.60...+0.40%. Hang Seng...22138.17...-70.30...-0.30%.

06:30 am : FTSE...5768.58...-2.40...0.00. DAX...6244.53...-5.20...-0.10%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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