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 Post subject: April 7th Wednesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +12.30
PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2010 7:54 am 
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4:30 pm : Moderate weakness mired stocks for most of the session, but a failed attempt to push into positive prompted sellers to intensify their efforts and hand the stock market its worst loss in more than one month.

A lack of positive catalysts in the early going left market participants without reason to chase stocks to new highs, which have become increasingly difficult register in recent sessions.

A stronger dollar also stymied buying. In the early going the Dollar Index climbed to a gain of 0.4% before it pulled back to settle with a gain of 0.2%. Most of the dollar's strength was owed to the euro, which weakened in the wake of news that eurozone economic activity stagnated in the fourth quarter.

Precious metals were unfazed by the dollar, though. Gold prices climbed 1.5% to $1137 per ounce, while silver prices settled 1.5% higher at $18.20 per ounce. Such strength won favor for Barrick Gold (ABX 40.70, +1.28), Goldcorp (GG 39.87, +1.59), and IAMGOLD (IAG 15.60, +0.71).

Strength among precious metals plays helped offset the weakness of Monsanto (MON 68.09, -1.45) within the materials sector, which fell 0.7%. Monsanto posted an earnings miss and confirmed a tepid forecast.

All 10 major sectors fell, but losses were worst among telecom stocks. The sector tumbled 2.3%.

Financials fell 0.5% despite early attempts to provide leadership to the broader market. The sector was sacked by a late flurry of selling that came about after stocks failed to find their way into higher ground. The S&P 500 actually flirted with a gain after a $21 billion auction of 10-year Treasuries drew a lower-than-expected yield of 3.90% and a record bid-to-cover ratio of 3.7, but the stock market's failure to overcome resistance at the neutral line set the stage for a more concerted selling effort.

Sellers intensified their efforts after it was learned that consumer credit in February fell by $11.5 billion. It was expected to contract by just $0.7 billion. Consumer credit for the prior month was revised upward to a $10.6 billion increase from a $5.0 billion increase.

While a bounce up from session lows in the final hour of trade helped moderate the extent of this session's slide, it still wasn't enough to prevent the stock market's worst loss since February.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-2.3%), Energy (-1.0%), Utilities (-0.9%), Materials (-0.7%), Industrials (-0.6%), Financials (-0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.5%), Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Health Care (-0.4%), Tech (-0.2%) DJ30 -72.47 NASDAQ -5.65 NQ100 -0.2% R2K -0.3% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -6.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1230/2.87 bln/1469 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1109/1.15 bln/1924

3:30 pm : Equities have seen a slight bounce off session lows reached about 15 minutes ago.

In the commodity space, gold and silver futures traded higher this session as the dollar pared its early gains stemming primarily from weakness in the euro. May silver closed 1.5% higher at $18.20 per ounce. June gold also closed 1.5% higher, it closed at $1137 per ounce. Gold stocks were especially strong this session. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 48.16 +1.35) staged an impressive rally this session. Large cap gold miners Goldcorp (GG 39.82 +1.54) and Barrick Gold (ABX 40.69 +1.27) led the charge higher.

Crude oil retreated from its 18 month highs this session. It was trading lower heading into the inventory report which showed a slightly greater-than expected build. The May contract closed just below the $86 level which provided some support this session. It fell 1.1% to $85.88 per barrel.

Natural gas continued its recent volatile trade and extended the prior session losses. May natural gas closed 2.0% lower at $4.02 per MMBtu. DJ30 -95.37 NASDAQ -12.19 SP500 -9.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1087/2.44 bln/1600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 960/823 mln/1063

3:00 pm : Stocks recently steadied their descent at the lows that were set this morning, but sellers have suddenly redoubled their efforts so that stocks have fallen another leg lower to trade at their worst levels of the session.

Pressure against stocks comes despite dwindling strength in the dollar. More specifically, the dollar is now up less than 0.1% against competing currencies. That marks a session low for the greenback.

Treasuries have attracted more support amid the stock market's slide. The benchmark 10-year Note is now up more than 20 ticks. DJ30 -85.77 NASDAQ -6.83 SP500 -7.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1224/2.17 bln/1438 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1073/717 mln/1900

2:30 pm : Selling pressure has picked up to drop the S&P 500 to a fresh afternoon low. The slide comes after the broad market measure failed to push into positive territory.

Despite the broader market's weakness, gold stocks are trading exceptionally well this session, thanks to higher prices for gold bullion. Gold stocks are up 2.2%, but IAMGOLD (IAG 15.49, +0.60) and Goldcorp (GG 39.84, +1.56) are both up by 4%. DJ30 -66.80 NASDAQ -3.82 SP500 -5.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1241/1.99 bln/1394 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1153/640 mln/1838

2:00 pm : Sellers recently rejected an attempt by the S&P 500 to push into positive territory. The benchmark index is back to a modest loss as a result.

In an afternoon speech to a Dallas Chamber, Fed Chairman Bernanke stated that there is not yet evidence of a sustained recovery in the housing market. Homebuilding stocks didn't show much of a response to the statement, but they remain stuck with a 1.5% loss, near session lows.

At a separate event, New York Fed President Dudley stated that the U.S. is still not seeing enough job gains and that the Fed Funds Rate needs to stay low for an extended period. The latter point is in line with the Fed's stance that economic conditions continue to warrant exceptionally low levels of interest for an extended period of time. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting indicated that such a view doesn't preclude the Fed from changing policy, though. DJ30 -29.62 NASDAQ +1.01 SP500 -2.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1330/1.80 bln/1290 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1286/580 mln/1690

1:30 pm : Results from the latest Treasury auction have given stocks a boost, such that the broader market is at a session high and attempting to turn positive.

A $21 billion auction of 10-year Treasuries drew a yield of 3.90% with a record bid-to-cover ratio of 3.7. The yield was lower than many had expected, while the ratio was above that of the prior auction and the average of recent auctions. The benchmark 10-year Note started to garner suupport ahead of the announcement, but the results have helped it to a session high -- it is currently up 13 ticks, which has trimmed its yield down to 3.90% after it was just above 4.00% on Monday. DJ30 -14.66 NASDAQ +4.42 SP500 -0.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1328/1.64 bln/1270 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1352/530 mln/1610

1:00 pm : The stock market has been stuck in negative territory with a modest loss for the entire session as participants find little reason to drive stocks higher.

Continued strength in the dollar provided market participants with reason to pressure stocks in the early going. The Dollar Index made its way to a 0.4% gain as the euro weakened in the wake of news that eurozone economic activity stagnated in the fourth quarter. The dollar has since drifted downward so that now sports a 0.2% gain.

While diminished gains by the dollar have helped lift stocks up from their morning lows, pressure in the broader market hasn't completely subsided and losses remain broad based.

Financials had offered some support in the early going, but they have since faltered to trade with a slight loss. Shares of investment banks and brokerages remain strong, though; they're up 2.2%.

Tech has managed attract moderate interest, which has kept the sector just above the neutral line. Its relative strength has helped keep the Nasdaq near the unchanged mark while its counterparts remain in the red.

Better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance from Family Dollar (FDO 39.48, +1.69) has helped shares of retailers this session. The group is up just 0.1% at the moment, but this is the second straight session that the group has outperformed the broader market.

In other corporate news, Monsanto (MON 68.51, -1.03) reported bottom-line results that were short of the consensus estimate and also issued a tepid forecast. Its weakness has been a drag on the materials sector, but metals plays have helped to offset the weakness as gold and silver prices climb higher -- gold is up 1.5% to $1153 per ounce and silver is up 1.4% to $18.20 per ounce. The overall materials sector is down 0.2%.

Telecom has been exceptionally weak this session. The sector is down 2.2%.

The appetite for Treasuries has picked up in the few minutes leading up to the 1:00 PM ET release of results from an auction of 10-year Treasury Notes. The benchmark Note is currently up roughly eight ticks. DJ30 -25.16 NASDAQ +2.29 SP500 -1.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1247/1.48 bln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1229/480 mln/1704

12:30 pm : After some momentary strength in the early going materials stocks have been dragged down to a 0.3% loss. Monsanto (MON 68.22, -1.32) has been a primary source of weakness in recent action. The company reported earnings for its second fiscal quarter that fell short of the consensus estimate and issued a tepid forecast. Despite those shortcomings the stock actually rallied to a gain from an opening loss, but sellers have since redoubled their efforts. DJ30 -40.81 NASDAQ -2.00 SP500 -3.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1146/1.31 bln/1433 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1138/441 mln/1794

12:00 pm : Unable to push into positive territory, the Nasdaq has stalled at the neutral line. Nonetheless, the index has been helped by tech issues; large-cap tech issues have the Nasdaq 100 up to a fractional gain, while the broader S&P 500 Technology Sector is up 0.1%.

The dollar has drifted to its lowest point since this session's opening bell. It now trades with a gain of less than 0.2%.

The greenback's weakness has been particularly helpful for precious metals. As such, gold prices are up 1.1% to $1148 per ounce, while silver is up 1.4% to $18.19 per ounce. Those gains have propped up the likes of Newmont Mining (NEM 54.44, +1.17) and Yamana Gold (AUY 10.63, +0.31). DJ30 -24.18 NASDAQ +0.04 SP500 -2.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1158/1.17 bln/1371 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1169/400 mln/1718

11:30 am : Stocks have bounced back from their recent drop. While the Dow and S&P 500 remain in the red, the Nasdaq is flirting with positive territory.

Financials continue to display leadership, though the sector is off of its session high. As a group, financials had been up 0.5% at their session high, but they are now trade with just a 0.1% gain. Investment banks and brokerages are the strongest plays in the sector; they are up 2.1%, collectively.

Retailers are also solid for the second straight session. Though the group is up just 0.1%, that has been enough to outperform the broader market. Discount retailer Family Dollar (FDO 39.40, +1.61) is especially strong, thanks to better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance. The stock was actually given a positive review ahead of its report by analysts at Wells Fargo. DJ30 -32.42 NASDAQ -0.20 SP500 -2.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1142/990 mln/1377 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1140/352 mln/1721

11:00 am : Selling pressure recently picked up to drop the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fresh session lows. The Nasdaq Composite steadied its slide upon coming in contact with its opening low. There haven't been any direct or immediate news items to account for the drop in stocks.

Commodities are back under pressure, too. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index has fallen from a recent loss of 0.1% to its current loss of 0.7%. DJ30 -66.43 NASDAQ -6.55 SP500 -6.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/822 mln/1465 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 933/298 mln/1911

10:30 am : A downward drift by the dollar has helped give a lift to commodities. Specifically, the Dollar Index was up 0.4% at its morning high and the CRB Commodity Index was down 0.6% at its morning low, but the buck is now up a more moderate 0.2% and the CRB is down just 0.1%.

Within the commodity complex, precious metals have been a primary source of support. Gold was last quoted at $1145 per ounce, up 0.8%. Meanwhile, silver prices are up 1.4% to $18.18 per ounce.

Oil has had a relatively volatile morning. Prices had been down roughly 1% in morning electronic trade, but the loss was almost entirely reversed before news of a larger-than-expected inventory build of 1.98 million barrels was released. Oil prices are down 0.5% to $86.40 per barrel in the wake of the data.

Natural gas prices are also weak. Contracts last quoted the commodity 0.4% lower at $4.08 per MMBtu. DJ30 -33.10 NASDAQ +0.80 SP500 -2.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1130/589 mln/1275 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/220 mln/1630

10:00 am : The dollar has drifted off of its morning high so that it now trades with a modest 0.2% gain. That dip has helped draw some bids for materials stocks, which have made their way into positive territory to trade with a 0.1% gain.

Despite the pullback in the greenback, the stock market hasn't been able to extend its move from opening lows. As for the Nasdaq Composite, it came in contact with the unchanged mark, but it was quickly rebuffed.

Early movers: Trading up -- PURE +72.9%, ZLC +12.3%, BPW +11.6%, WNC +11.3%, JASO +9.9%, ENCO +9.1%, CECE +8.6%, SATC +8.6%, STE +8.4%, ZIXI +8.1%; Trading down -- ZANE -18.7%, HNSN -8.8%, ENTR -5.7%, SMI -5.1%, PARL -4.8%

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+0.3%), Materials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-1.9%), Energy (-0.6%), Utilities (-0.5%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.2%), Tech (-0.2%), Industrials (-0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.1%) DJ30 -27.20 NASDAQ -2.01 SP500 -2.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1053/335 mln/1276 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1046/145 mln/1659

09:45 am : For the second straight session the financial sector is offering leadership to the broader market. Financials are up 0.5% and are the only major sector in positive territory. The sector's strength has helped to lift the rest of the market up from its opening low to within close range of the neutral line.

Though financials have provided an early source of support to the broader market, telecom is down with an outsized loss for the second straight session. The sector shed 0.4% in the prior session, but it is now down 1.6% this morning. Verizon (VZ 30.40, -0.32) is a primary laggard among telecom plays; its weakness has created a drag on the Dow. DJ30 -17.91 NASDAQ -1.17 SP500 -1.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1014/215 mln/1199 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1069/105 mln/1565

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00. Stock futures are up from their worst levels of the morning, but a lower start to the session still looks to be in order. A stronger dollar is the primary culprit of the relatively dour mood among premarket participants -- the greenback is currently up 0.4% against a basket of foreign currencies. That gain has come largely as a result of weakness in the euro, which lost ground after news that eurozone economic activity stalled in the fourth quarter.

An additional pall has been cast over early trade by market analysts who have posited that the stock market is near-term overbought. Some point to the decreasing degree of new highs as proof.

Results from an auction of 10-year Treasury Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET. Any disappointment over the auction could drive the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back above 4.00%, which could create an additional headwind for the stock market.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. The dollar continues to sport a solid gain this morning. Its strength has put pressure on both stock futures and commodity futures, but both groups have managed to make a modest bounce up from morning lows. Still, stock futures currently suggest that the cash market will open with a 0.3% loss, while the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.3%. Oil is a primary source of weakness within the CRB. Crude oil futures currently price oil at $86.20 per barrel, down 0.8%. A potential catalyst for oil comes at 10:30 AM ET, when weekly oil and gasoline inventory data are released.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.30. A negative start for the U.S. equity averages still looks to be in order as stock futures drift to new morning lows. Action in Europe is generally weak as well -- the continent's major bourses are down with varied losses following news that the eurozone economy stopped growing in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to final statistics on the matter. The data has also put pressure on the euro.

Germany's DAX is down 0.4% at the moment. Siemens (SI) is a primary source of weakness. According to reports, German factory orders were flat month-over-month in February - it was expected to decline by 0.5%. January's figure was revised up to show a 5.1% increase from a 4.3% increase.

In France, the CAC is down 0.6%. BNP Paribas is a primary source of weakness at the moment.

As for Britain's FTSE, it is down 0.2% at the moment. BHP Billiton (BHP) is leading the list of decliners, which outnumber advancers by nearly 2-to-1. The latest PMI Services Index for the United Kingdom came in at 56.5, which was below the expected reading of 58.0.

In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6%, but Japan's Nikkei settled just 0.1% to the upside. Japan's banking stocks were strong, though. That favored Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group (MFG), and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MTU). Sony (SNE) had a slight loss; its shares were recently downgraded by analysts at Citigroup. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.1% and said the recovery remains intact, but deflation remains a critical challenge.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng spiked 1.8% as trade resumed after an extended holiday weekend. Banks were strong, but one of the most impressive advances was made by CNOOC (CEO) as oil prices made their way toward 18-month high.

Mainland China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3%. Its banking stocks were a source of weakness.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. Stock futures are under a moderate dose of pressure as the dollar extends its advance from the prior session to sport a 0.4% gain against a basket of competing currencies ahead of the opening bell. A stronger dollar also pressured stocks in the prior session's early trade, but the broader market was able to book a gain by the close.

Overall news flow is rather slow so far, but Monsanto (MON) is expected to announce its latest quarterly results soon.

The only item on the economic calendar is Consumer Credit Report for February (3:00 PM ET).

06:40 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.80.

06:40 am : Nikkei...11292.83...+10.50...+0.10%. Hang Seng...21928.77...+391.80...+1.80%.

06:40 am : FTSE...5775.89...-4.40...-0.10%. DAX...6245.81...-6.30...-0.10%.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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