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 Post subject: April 6th Tuesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.20
PostPosted: Thu Apr 08, 2010 6:51 am 
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4:30 pm : A pullback by the buck and strength among financials combined to help the broader market make its way up to a new 52-week high after stocks had traded with a modest loss in the early going. Gains faded a bit into the close, but overall price action remained positive.

Participants pressured stocks in the early going as the greenback gained ground against competing currencies. It was up nearly 0.7% at its session high, but that gain was cut shortly after the midafternoon release of minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. According to those minutes, the Fed's language regarding low interest rates for an extended period of time does not preclude the Fed from promptly tightening policy. Still, the Fed added that the extended period language could last longer if economy worsens or inflation declines. To the latter point, the FOMC members indicated that consumer spending in the first quarter still seemed constrained and that data has shown a greater-than-expected decline in inflation. Given those observations the Dollar Index dipped to close with a gain of 0.3%.

The dollar's moderation helped the broader market break free from an afternoon of range-bound trade, which was largely the result of resistance at the neutral line.

Leadership from the financial sector had helped to initially lift the broader market up from its opening low. Buyers sought bank stocks, so the KBW Bank Index tacked on 2.4%. That sent the broader financial sector 1.1% higher.

Retailers were also strong on a relative basis. The group gained 0.6%. Discount retailer Dollar General (DG 27.01) was especially strong after it was upgraded by analysts at Wells Fargo. The analysts initiated Family Dollar (FDO 37.79, +0.30) with a strong ranking ahead of the retailers earnings report tomorrow morning.

Also on the earnings calendar, Schnitzer Steel (SCHN 54.66, -0.56) is scheduled to announce its latest quarterly results Wednesday evening. Its shares failed to sustain the gains that were sported by larger competitors AK Steel (AKS 25.00, +0.80) and US Steel (X 69.71, +0.75).

Though the stock market failed to finish the session at its high and its overall move was modest, it still booked its third straight gain or its sixth advance in seven sessions (including a couple of fractional gains).

Treasuries made a modest bounce after pressure in the prior session drove the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note above 4.00%. Gains in the 10-year Note remained steady after a $40 billion auction of 3-year Notes drew a higher-than-expected yield of nearly 1.78%. The auction's bid-to-cover ratio came in at 3.10, which was in step with that of the prior auction, but up from the 10-auction average of 2.94. Indirect bidders accounted for 52.2%, up from 51.8% in the prior auction, but below the 10-auction average of 53.4%.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+1.1%), Utilities (+0.9%), Materials (+0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%), Health Care (-0.2%)
Unchanged: Tech, Energy, Industrials DJ30 -3.56 NASDAQ +7.28 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +0.6% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +2.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1498/2.12 bln/1151 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1705/933 mln/1306

3:35 pm : Natural gas fell 4.2% this session after rising 12% since last Thursday's 6 month low. The May contract hit a session low at $4.07 per MMBtu in the afternoon; it closed at $1.40 per MMBtu.

The front month crude oil futures hit a new 18 month high at $87.09 per barrel this session. May crude oil finished 0.3% higher at $86.84 per barrel.

Gold futures pared early losses to finish with a very modest gain. June gold futures closed 0.2% higher at $1136.50 per ounce.

Sellers were in control of silver futures, though. May silver closed 0.9% lower at $17.96 per ounce after trading in negative territory for the entire session.

Wheat futures were notably higher this session. July wheat futures closed with a 2.2% gain at $4.70 per bushel on a covering of short positions. DJ30 -4.46 NASDAQ +7.96 SP500 +1.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1453/1.76 bln/1192 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1672/681 mln/1323

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 continues to trend higher, but it has paused at 1191, a new 52-week high. The benchmark index is now up nearly 7% year-to-date.

That advance hasn't come with much of an expansion in its multiple, though. Specifically, the S&P 500 was trading at 14.8x forward four quarter earnings in the first week of January and then at 14.9x forward four quarter earnings just ahead of this session. DJ30 +9.67 NASDAQ +11.85 SP500 +3.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1514/1.61 bln/1110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1767/608 mln/1214

2:30 pm : Stocks made no immediate reaction to the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, but it didn't take long for them to respond to a dip by the dollar -- the Dollar Index has moderated to a 0.3% gain and stocks have broken free from their recent trading range to reside at fresh session highs.

The bounce by stocks has been broad based, such that eight of the 10 major sectors are in higher ground. Only telecom stocks (-0.3%) and consumer staples stocks (-0.2%) are still in negative territory. DJ30 +9.59 NASDAQ +12.74 SP500 +3.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1506/1.45 bln/1113 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1787/560 mln/1204

2:05 pm : The stock market continues to drift sideways in lackluster fashion. There has been now immediate response to the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting.

According to those minutes, the Fed's extended period language does not limit ability to tighten policy promptly, but the "extended period" could last longer if economy worsens or inflation declines. To the latter point, the FOMC members stated that consumer spending in the first quarter still seemed constrained and that inflation data has shown a greater-than-expected decline. DJ30 -17.01 NASDAQ +2.98 SP500 +0.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1339/1.34 bln/1279 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1600/511 mln/1369

1:30 pm : Results from a $40 billion auction of 3-year Notes drew a yield of nearly 1.78%, which is roughly 11 basis points higher than many analysts had expected. The auction's bid-to-cover ratio came in at 3.10, which was in step with that of the prior auction, but up from the 10-auction average of 2.94. Indirect bidders accounted for 52.2%, up from 51.8% in the prior auction, but below the 10-auction average of 53.4%.

As for stocks, the S&P 500 continues to oscillate between positive and negative territory. The broad market measure has been bound to a range of roughly two points for the past two hours. DJ30 -8.32 NASDAQ +3.54 SP500 +0.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1343/1.23 bln/1254 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1582/465 mln/1372

1:00 pm : The financial sector has led the broader market on a gradual climb up from modest losses in the early going, but the stock market has struggled to extend its move beyond the neutral zone.

Stocks started this session with broad-based, but moderate losses as the dollar gained ground against a basket of foreign currencies. The buck remains up 0.6%, but the stock market has managed to attract some support in the face of its strength.

Financials have been of particular interest. The financial sector set a new 17-month high and is currently up 0.6%. Within the sector, regional bank shares are up 2.0%, led by Regions Financial (RF 8.49, +0.51), which had its estimates raised by analysts at Credit Suisse.

Despite leadership from the financial sector, the broader market hasn't been able to make much of move past the prior session's closing level, which was in-line with 52-week highs.

Technology, the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight, has lagged this session. At the moment, the sector is down 0.2%. Semiconductor stocks are down 0.8%, according to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, as profit takers capitalize on the group's 3% gain in the prior session.

Treasuries have found some support after selling in the prior session sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note past 4.00% for the first time since June 2009. The gains precede results from a $40 billion auction of 3-year Treasuries that are due at 1:00 PM ET.

Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting are due at 2:00 PM ET. Focus will be on whether there were any suggested changes to language in the Fed's policy statement regarding exceptionally low levels of interest rates for an extended period of time. DJ30 -16.25 NASDAQ +0.95 SP500 -0.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1294/1.14 bln/1299 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1537/435 mln/1404

12:30 pm : The stock market continues to oscillate along the neutral line. Financials, which are currently up 0.7%, continue to trade with strength, but the rest of the market hasn't really followed.

Telecom is in the worst shape, though its loss in and of itself isn't necessarily severe. The sector is currently down 0.4% as communications giant Verizon (VZ 31.21, -0.25) comes under pressure.

Energy stocks have quieted down after making a solid start, such that the sector is now flat for the session. Last quoted at $86.65 per barrel, crude oil prices are also unchanged. DJ30 -9.60 NASDAQ +1.96 SP500 +0.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1309/1.04 bln/1262 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1559/399 mln/1365

12:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently managed to poke into positive territory, but it failed to extend the move to more than a fractional gain. Pressure has since resumed and now the broad market index is back below the neutral line. The Nasdaq Composite has also eased back, but so far it has managed to resist a retreat into the red. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has all the while remained mired in negative territory with a slight loss.

Within the Dow, declining issues currently hold a narrow advantage over advancers. Among blue chips, IBM (IBM 128.60, -0.75) is one of the weakest performers. The stock is also a laggard on a year-to-date basis; since the start of the year shares of IBM have fallen nearly 2% while the Dow has made its way to a 5% gain during the same time. DJ30 -15.87 NASDAQ +1.22 SP500 -0.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1288/938 mln/1271 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/363 mln/1358

11:30 am : The dollar continues to trade with strength, but stocks have managed to make their way to a fresh session high, just shy of positive territory. Though stocks are at their best levels of the session, the bounce could have trouble extending as minor resistance stands at the unchanged line.

Despite the threat of broader market resistance, financials have managed to extend their gains. The sector is now up an enviable 0.8%, which is twice the gain of the next best performing sector (materials, +0.4%). DJ30 -10.58 NASDAQ +0.22 SP500 -0.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1250/791 mln/1263 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1509/311 mln/1328

11:00 am : The financial sector has rallied in recent action with help from shares of regional banks, but the broader market has yet to find its way into higher ground.

Regional bank shares are up 2.4%, collectively. Regions Financial (RF 8.70, +0.51) has been a primary leader within the group, thanks partly to news that estimates for the firm were recently raised by analysts at Credit Suisse. Within the financial sector, shares of RF currently sport the largest percentage gain and are among the most actively traded names by volume.

As regional banks ascend the financial sector has found itself with a 0.5% gain. That gain has put the S&P 500 Financial Index at its best level since November 5, 2008, or a new 17-month high. DJ30 -17.39 NASDAQ -3.14 SP500 -0.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1163/650 mln/1320 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1384/262 mln/1427

10:30 am : The US Dollar Index continues to trade near session highs, but this isn't keeping crude prices down.

Overnight, May crude oil spent most of its time trading in the red. Crude pushed into positive territory earlier this morning and hit highs of $87.09 per barrel around 9:45ET, but pulled back off of those highs as the dollar index strengthened. However, crude bounced back and is trading near session highs, currently at $86.87 per barrel, up 0.2%.

May natural gas traded in positive territory during the first half of the overnight session. Since then, strength in the dollar index has kept the energy component in the red for most of the morning. Natural gas popped into the black to highs of $4.33 per MMBtu an hour before pit trading began, but quickly reversed back into negative territory. Currently natural gas is 0.9% lower at $4.24 per MMBtu.

June gold began climbing higher this morning, and its momentum has pushed it into positive territory, partially helped by a modest pullback in the dollar index in recent trade. Currently gold is 0.3% higher at $1137.40 per ounce. Silver has displayed the morning momentum that gold did this morning, but silver has been, and remains, trading in negative territory. Silver is currently 0.4% lower at $18.05 per ounce. DJ30 -24.94 NASDAQ -5.33 SP500 -1.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1082/452.8 mln/1334 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1251/195.2 mln/1497

10:00 am : The stock market has chopped its way up from its opening low, but it still trades with a modest loss. The lift comes as the greenback pares a small portion of its morning gain so that it is now up 0.5% against competing currencies.

With the dollar drifting off of its morning high and oil prices holding on to the gains that they put together in the prior session -- oil is currently flat at $86.65 per barrel -- energy stocks have attracted some mild interest from market participants. In turn, the energy sector is now up 0.1%; it is the only major sector in positive territory at the moment.

Early Movers: Trading up -- ZANE +60.9%, CPBY +30.6%, BEAT +9.5%, ROG +8.7%, WATG +8.3%, RBS-M +8.2%, VIRL +8.1%, AVNR +6.9%; Trading down -- MEE -9.7%, UNIS -8.7%, TNK -6.8%, FUN -5.6%, WHI -5.4%, GASS -5.4%, STRI -5.3%, SFI -5.3%

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.7%), Tech (-0.6%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%), Utilities (-0.3%), Industrials (-0.2%), Health Care (-0.2%), Financial (-0.2%), Materials (-0.2%)
Unchanged: Consumer Discretionary DJ30 -26.91 NASDAQ -6.88 SP500 -2.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 904/244 mln/1419 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 999/128 mln/1654

09:45 am : The three major equity averages have started the session in negative territory, but their losses remain relatively modest in scope.

Tech stocks are down markedly, though. The sector has already shed 0.6% as semiconductor stocks falter after a strong performance in the prior session, when the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) climbed 3%. The SOX is down 0.8% this morning.

There is a pocket of slight strength within the consumer discretionary sector. Though the consumer discretionary sector is down 0.1%, shares of retailers are up 0.2%. DJ30 -31.07 NASDAQ -8.50 SP500 -3.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 764/145 mln/1489 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 844/91 mln/1758

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.00. Stock futures have eased up from their morning lows as the dollar drifts from its morning high against a basket of competing currencies. Still, the Dollar Index is up 0.6% and the cash market looks like it will start trade with a 0.4% loss. The dollar's bounce comes as the euro falls under pressure following conflicting reports regarding whether Greece wants to renegotiate terms of joint financial support from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The British pound is also considerably weaker, despite news of a stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Index for March. There hasn't been any domestic data this morning, but market participants get the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET. Most attention will be paid to whether there are any hinted changes in the Fed's language regarding low levels of interest rates for an extended period of time. With interest rates in focus, many have taken note that Australia's central bank has hiked its target lending rate by 25 basis points to a 14-month high of 4.25%. As for the bond market, it has found some support after selling in the prior session sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note past 4.00% for the first time since June 2009. Results from a $40 billion auction of 3-year Treasuries are due at 1:00 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50. The Dollar Index is now up nearly 0.7%. That has kept pressure on both stock futures and commodity futures. As such, the major equity averages look like they are headed for a lower start, while the CRB Commodity Index is already down 0.2%. Among commodities, precious metals are particularly weak -- gold is down 0.4% to $1128.10 per ounce, while silver is down 0.8% to $17.97 per ounce. As for oil, it is currently unchanged at $86.60 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00. U.S. stock futures have retreated to morning lows as the dollar climbs to a morning high against a basket of foreign currencies. Meanwhile, Europe's bourses have pulled back in recent trade so that they are now mixed. Britain's FTSE remains in positive territory; it now trades with a 0.3% gain. Favor for natural resource plays has helped BP PLC (BP), Rio Tinto (RTP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and BHP Billiton (BHP) provide leadership. Helping keep the positive mood intact is news that the country's latest PMI Manufacturing Index proved better than expected. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will postpone its policy decision to May 10 from May 6 on account of the country's general election. In Germany, the DAX is down 0.2%. Bayer is a primary source of weakness. France's CAC is flat. Total (TOT) has been a solid source of support, but Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) has been a bit of a drag after it settled with additional drugmakers a patent lawsuit over cancer drug Eloxatin. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.4%, while Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.5%. Shares of Japanese exporters retreated as the yen regained ground. As such, Canon (CAJ), Sony (SNE), and Panasonic (PC) fell. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed unchanged. Hong Kong's Hang Seng remained closed. In other overseas action, Australia's S&P/ASX advanced 0.9%. The country's central bank increased its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a 14-month high of 4.25%, as expected. The central bank indicated that there will be further increases this year.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. Stock futures are down modestly as the dollar advances against a basket of foreign currencies -- the Dollar Index is up 0.5% at the moment. Overall news flow is currently relatively light. Results from an auction of 3-year Treasuries are due at 1:00 PM ET. Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting follow at 2:00 PM ET. Market participants will likely focus on the Fed's "extended period" language as many question the interest rate outlook. On that note, Australia's central bank hiked its key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. In other overseas news, there are conflicting headlines regarding whether Greece aims to renegotiate an agreement that has offered to provide the country with financial aid from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

06:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.30.

06:38 am : Nikkei...11282.32...-57.00...-0.50%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:38 am : FTSE...5777.75...+32.90...+0.60%. DAX...6248.27...+12.50...+0.20%.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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