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 Post subject: April 5th Monday 2010 Emini TF points - NO TRADES TODAY
PostPosted: Mon Apr 05, 2010 4:09 pm 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @

No Trades Today. Family and I on an extended Easter Holiday. Will return to trading tomorrow on April 6th Tuesday.

Trading Tip: Don't make the newbie mistake of assuming your real trading results will be similar to backtesting results because backtesting does not transcribe market psychology, trader psychology, discipline problems, computer & broker platform issues et cetera...anyone by itself can have an impact on trading results.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @

My Trading Performance: No Trades Today in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures due to family on extended Easter Holiday


Dow Flirts With 11,000
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
April 5, 2010: 4:19 PM ET

NEW YORK ( -- Stocks rallied Monday, with the Dow edging closer to 11,000, as investors returning from a long weekend welcomed last week's jobs report, the morning's strong housing market report and the launch of Apple's iPad device.

The market also kept an eye on the 10-year Treasury note yield, which surged to 4% as investors dumped treasuries in favor of riskier assets. Oil prices surged to nearly 18-month highs. The dollar was mixed versus other major currencies.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 46 points, or 0.4%, to close at 10,973.55. Earlier, the Dow rose to within 11 points of 11,000, a key psychological level. The Dow last crossed 11,000 during the session on Sept. 29, 2008, when it touched 11,139.94. It last closed above 11,000 on Sept. 26, 2008, ending at 11,143.13.

The S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 9 points, or 0.8%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 27 points, or 1.1%.

All three indexes ended at new 18-month highs.

Stocks gained last week, rising for the sixth of seven weeks. But markets were closed for Good Friday, making Monday the first time investors were able to react to Friday's big jobs report from the Department of Labor.

Monday also was the first chance for investors to react to the strong sales for Apple's iPad tablet computer, which launched Saturday amid much enthusiasm.

There were also positive reports on housing and on the services sector.

"The pending home sales report shows a stable housing environment and the services sector report was a consistent follow-through to last week's manufacturing report," said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Wells Fargo.

"Following the jobs report, growth looks pretty solid," he said. "It suggests we can avoid a double-dip recession."
10 highest-paid CEOs

Jobs: Employers added 162,000 jobs to their payrolls in March, more than in any month in the last three years, the government said Friday.

Economists surveyed by were expecting an even bigger gain, of 184,000 jobs. However, the report was not considered disappointing as it showed growth even when accounting for temporary employment and the impact of 48,000 once-in-a-decade census jobs.

Employers cut 14,000 jobs in February.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, held steady at 9.7% as expected.

Apple: The tech leader said it sold 300,000 of its iPad tablet computers on Saturday and that users downloaded over one million apps from the company's App store and over 250,000 ebooks from its iBookstore. Shares of Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) gained 1% Monday.
0:00 /1:48Job growth ... now what?

Economy: The pending home sales index posted a surprise jump in February, rising 8.2% to 97.6 from a revised 90.2 in January. Economists expected the report from the National Association of Realtors to have declined by 1%, according to forecasts.

A separate report showed growth in the services sector of the economy. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services sector index rose to 55.4 in March from 50 in February, versus forecasts for a rise to 53.6. Any reading over 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 4% from 3.86% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

In the afternoon, the government saw a strong response to its auction of $8 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), with bidders offering to buy 3.43 times the amount of debt sold, up from the recent average. Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, bought 37.5% of the sale.

A January offering of $10 billion in 10-year TIPS saw bidders offering to buy 2.65 times the amount of debt sold with a 40.7% indirect bidder rate.

Treasury is auctioning $82 billion in debt this week.

The dollar and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.

COMEX gold for June delivery rose $4.30 to $1,129.10 per ounce.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery rose $1.75 to $86.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close for crude since October 2008.

World markets: In overseas trading, European markets rallied. Asian markets ended higher as well.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by almost three to one on volume of 500 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners two to one on volume of 1.36 billion shares.


Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Broad-based buying on the back of upbeat data boosted the major indices to fresh 52-week highs, but the widely watched Dow couldn't quite make its way to the psychologically significant 11,000 mark.

The stock market was closed in observance of Good Friday when the latest nonfarm payrolls report was released last week, so many market participants treated the jobs numbers like new. Though the numbers were mixed, including a smaller-than-expected increase of 162,000 in total jobs during March and a steady unemployment rate of 9.7%, a deeper dig into the data revealed that there was a larger-than-expected increase in private sector payrolls.

A generally positive reaction to the jobs numbers helped give the major equity averages a positive start to the session. Stocks added to their gains shortly after it was learned that the ISM Service Index for March exceeded expectations to hit a multiyear high of 55.4 and that pending home sales for February made a surprise 8.2% month-over-month increase.

Though strong data spurred a solid buying effort, there wasn't much volume behind the move. Stocks spent the entire afternoon in a tight range, unable to further build on their gains. For the S&P 500 that meant that it would spend the afternoon bumping up against the 1187 to 1188 zone, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average couldn't quite close the gap on 11,000 -- both levels were last seen in September 2008.

Buyers favored energy stocks the most this session. That helped the sector ascend to a 1.6% gain. Higher oil prices helped. Contract prices for crude oil hit an 18-month high just shy of $87 per barrel before it settled with a 2.1% gain at $86.62 per barrel.

The reflation trade also helped materials stocks, which tacked on 1.2% this session. Steel plays (+3.8%) provided the most support to the sector, but metal and mining giant Alcoa (AA 14.73, +0.03) lagged after it was downgraded by analysts at JPMorgan. The downgrade precedes Alcoa's quarterly earnings announcement next week.

Tech stocks (+1.1%) were also strong this session. Apple (AAPL 238.49, +2.52), one of the sector's frequent leaders, lagged a bit in the early going amid suggestions that initial sales of its latest gadget, the iPad, have been underwhelming. Analysts at JPMorgan increased their target on the stock, however.

Health care stocks (-0.3%) and consumer staples stocks (-0.1%), often considered defensive plays, trailed the broader market for the entire session. Their decline suggested that broader market participants remain more interested in riskier plays.

On that note, small-caps and mid-caps outperformed with ease. Specifically, the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index climbed 2.0%, while the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index added 1.6%.

Meanwhile, Treasuries fell out of favor. As a result, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note eked past 4.00% for the first time since this past summer. Results from a reopened auction of $8 billion in 10-year TIPS did little to alleviate pressure. The auction drew a yield of 1.71% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.4. The indirect bid came in at 37.5%.

The dollar had a quiet session and closed with a 0.1% loss against a basket of competing currencies. Over the weekend the U.S. Treasury decided to delay a report to Congress on the currency policies of China, among other major trading partners.

Many major foreign markets were closed Monday for holiday observance.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+1.6%), Materials (+1.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.2%), Tech (+1.1%), Financial (+1.0%), Industrials (+0.8%), Telecom (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.6%)
Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%) DJ30 +46.48 NASDAQ +26.95 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +2.0% SP400 +1.6% SP500 +9.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2028/2.04 bln/688 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2298/900 mln/765

3:35 pm : Energy led the commodities space and equity markets higher this session. The move higher has been attributed to better-than-expected economic data (this morning and Friday's Nonfarm payrolls).

Also of note, the energy space saw some M&A activity prior to today's session. News broke last night that SandRidge Energy (SD 7.59 -0.26) would purchase Arena Resources (ARD 36.59 +2.33) for ~$40 in cash and stock. The deal represented ~17% premium at the time of the announcement. Crude oil futures reached a new 18 month high this session. May crude oil closed 2.1% higher at $86.62 per barrel. Natural gas futures also saw significant buying interest this session. May natural gas closed 4.4% higher at $4.27 per MMBtu. The May contract is now up over 12% off Thursday's session low.

Precious metals saw less pronounced gains this session. June gold closed 0.7% higher at $1130.80 per ounce and May silver closed 1.3Z% higher at $18.12 per ounce. DJ30 +39.98 NASDAQ +22.34 SP500 +8.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1875/1.68 bln/826 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2186/627 mln/859

3:00 pm : Stocks recently surrendered a few points, but they have since reclaimed their gains to resume trade near session highs, which also coincide with new 52-week highs.

The positive tone among market participants this session has also helped commodities. Though pit trade recently closed for various commodities, the complex continues to garner support in electronic trade. Such support has the CRB Commodity Index up 1.1% at the moment. The advance would make for back-to-back gains in excess of 1%. DJ30 +39.83 NASDAQ +23.99 SP500 +8.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1902/1.52 bln/777 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2214/562 mln/824

2:30 pm : The stock market continues to drift sideways in what has become a rather lackluster afternoon of trade.

Despite the inaction among market participants, gains remain strong and the broader market's prevailing positive bias remains intact. In turn, the stock market is on track for its fifth gain in six sessions, though one of those advances was a fractional increase.

The Dollar Index has also traded in a narrow range this session. At the moment it is down just 0.1%. Market pundits continue to point to the dollar as a primary source of support for or resistance against the stock market, depending on which way the buck moves. DJ30 +41.26 NASDAQ +23.69 SP500 +8.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1901/1.39 bln/777 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2214/512 mln/804

2:00 pm : The stock market shed a few points during the course of the last few minutes. Despite its slip, the stock market continues to sport broad-based gains as its advancing issues outnumber its decliners by 4-to-1.

Semiconductor-related stocks are especially strong this session. In turn, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 2.5%. Strength among semiconductor and semiconductor equipment plays has also helped the Nasdaq Composite outperform its counterparts. DJ30 +30.68 NASDAQ +21.89 SP500 +7.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1873/1.30 bln/788 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2199/473 mln/816

1:30 pm : Treasuries remain under pressure. Results from a reopened auction of $8 billion in 10-year TIPS haven't helped. According to headlines, the auction drew a yield of 1.71% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.4. The indirect bid came in at 37.5%. The offering of $10 billion 10-year TIPS in January attracted a yield of 1.43% with a bid-to-cover ratio of almost 2.65. The indirect bid at that auction was 40.7%.

Meanwhile, stocks continue to move sideways along session highs. The S&P 500 has struggled to move above the 1188 line, which was last seen in late September 2008. That was also the last time that the Dow traded above 11,000. The Dow was been within just 12 points of that psychologically significant line earlier this morning. DJ30 +43.76 NASDAQ +23.96 SP500 +8.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1895/1.20 bln/768 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2243/435 mln/766

1:00 pm : Market participants have pushed the stock market to a fresh 52-week high as a positive bias continues to permeate trade.

Traders returned from a long, holiday weekend focused on the official nonfarm payrolls report, which was released this past Friday, when the stock market was closed in observance of Good Friday. The report was essentially mixed, but one of the positive points was a stronger-than-expected increase in private sector payrolls.

The report's silver lining helped keep intact the interest of buyers, such that stocks opened trade this morning with solid gains. Gains were extended shortly after the release of the latest ISM Service Index and pending home sales figures, though the initial reaction to the reports was relatively muted. At a multiyear high of 55.4, the March ISM Service Index exceeded expectations, while pending home sales for February made a surprise 8.2% month-over-month increase.

Natural resource plays are among the strongest plays this session, thanks largely to the reflation trade. In turn, energy stocks are up a collective 1.5% and materials stocks are up 1.2%.

Of the 40 names in the energy sector, 39 are higher. Oil and gas equipment plays (+2.0%) and oil and gas drillers (+1.9%) are leaders in the bunch -- new 18-month highs for oil prices have helped. Crude oil prices were last quoted at $86.70 per barrel, up 2.1% this session.

Meanwhile, materials stocks are led by steel plays (+3.5%). Metal and mining giant Alcoa (AA 14.69, -0.01) is a laggard in the group, though. The company's earnings announcement next week will unofficially kick off the first quarter reporting season.

Though cyclical stocks have helped lead the broader market to its best level in more than one year, the stock market has become range bound in early afternoon trade.

Defensive plays have been out of favor this session. As such, health care stocks are down 0.2%, while consumer staples stocks remain mired at the neutral line. Utilities stocks are up just 0.3%.

Treasuries, a traditional safe haven, are down markedly. Specifically, the benchmark 10-year Note is down 12 ticks at the moment. That has its yield just below 4.00%, which was actually breached earlier this session. Such a yield hadn't been seen since last summer. Coming up at 1:00 PM ET are results from an $8 billion auction of 10-year TIPS. DJ30 +42.02 NASDAQ +23.71 SP500 +8.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1903/1.11 bln/744 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2243/399 mln/738

12:30 pm : Materials stocks are up an enviable 1.2% at the moment. The sector is currently led by AK Steel (AKS 24.18, +1.11), US Steel (X 68.31, +2.61), and Nucor (NUE 47.52, +1.57). However, Alcoa (AA 14.74, +0.04) is a relative laggard in the group; the company unofficially kicks off the first quarter reporting season next week with its quarterly earnings announcement. DJ30 +46.40 NASDAQ +23.37 SP500 +8.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1901/1.02 bln/734 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2255/365 mln/719

12:00 pm : Unable to extend its gain, the stock market has spent the past hour stuck near session highs. Still, gains remains strong and broad based.

Health care stocks remain weak, however. The sector recently surrendered a modest gain so that it now trades with a fractional loss.

Treasuries have fallen out of favor amid gains in the stock market this session. Specifically, the benchmark 10-year Note is down 13 ticks at the moment. That has its yield up to 4.00%, which is its highest level since last summer. DJ30 +51.46 NASDAQ +23.65 SP500 +9.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1892/915 mln/725 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2243/330 mln/711

11:30 am : Stocks continue to trade with strong gains as they pause near session highs. At the moment, more than 85% of the listings in the S&P 500 are in higher ground.

The list of laggards holds quite a few pharmaceutical plays, including Pfizer (PFE 16.96, -0.12), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 26.78, -0.17), and Merck (MRK 37.68, -0.03). Weakness among such widely held names has hampered the overall health care sector, which is presently up just 0.1% at the moment -- that's just a fraction of the gain that is currently sported by the broader market. DJ30 +53.81 NASDAQ +24.48 SP500 +8.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1913/800 mln/693 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2270/290 mln/656

11:00 am : The stock market has extended its gain to a fresh 52-week high. Of the components in the S&P 500, 74 have hit new annual highs of their own.

Natural resource plays are currently among the best performers as participants continue to play the reflation trade. More specifically, the energy sector is up 1.4% and the materials sector is up 1.1%.

Not to be outdone, tech is up 1.1%. However, frequent standout Apple (AAPL 237.20) has lagged a bit. Broader market support and news that analysts at JPMorgan increased their target on the stock have helped it this morning, but a headwind has come from those that have suggested that initial sales of its latest gadget, the iPad, have been underwhelming. DJ30 +57.13 NASDAQ +26.24 SP500 +9.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1901/648 mln/657 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2249/245 mln/631

10:30 am : Commodities pushed to fresh highs or back near earlier session highs as the US Dollar Index extended this morning's losses and fell to new session lows less than an hour ago.

May crude oil has traded in positive territory all session so far. In current activity, crude popped to new session highs of $86.28 per barrel, a level not seen since the middle of October 2008, and is now at $86.09, up 1.4%.

May natural gas rallied into positive territory around an hour ago on weakness in the dollar index, hitting fresh session highs of $4.21 per MMBtu. Currently, natural gas is just under those highs at $4.19 per MMBtu, up 2.4%.

Precious metals also hit new session highs in recent trade. June gold and May silver hit fresh morning highs of $1132.10 per ounce and $18.04 per ounce, respectively, around 9:45am ET. Gold is currently 0.2% higher at $1128.70 per ounce, while silver is at $17.96 per ounce, up 0.4%. DJ30 +51.01 NASDAQ +20.24 SP500 +7.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1876/463.6 mln/632 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2176/179.2 mln/664

10:00 am : The ISM Service Index for March came in at 55.4, which is better than the expected reading of 54.0 and marks the highest level for the ISM Service Index since mid-2006.

Pending home sales for February were also just released. They increased 8.2% month-over-month, which is a surprise since the consensus called for monthly sales to go unchanged. The numbers for January were revised lower to reflect a 7.8% monthly decrease.

Stocks haven't shown much of a response to the latest dose of data, but they remain at session highs, which also make for fractionally improved 52-week highs.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%), Industrials (+0.6%), Tech (+0.6%), Materials (+0.5%), Financial (+0.5%), Telecom (+0.4%), Utilities (+0.2%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%), Health Care (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: (None) DJ30 +29.40 NASDAQ +15.93 SP500 +5.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1809/330 mln/627 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2074/130 mln/690

09:45 am : Trading opened with stocks sporting modest gains, but a mild fit of selling pressure caused a minor pullback during the first few minutes of action. Stocks have since rebounded to trade near their opening levels.

Energy stocks are a primary source of support at the moment; the sector is up 0.6% after oil prices hit new 18-month highs earlier this morning. Oil prices are currently off of those highs, but they still sport a 0.9% gain at $85.70 per barrel.

Among energy plays, oil and gas equipment stocks are up 1.1% and oil and gas drillers are up 1.2%. DJ30 +13.75 NASDAQ +9.74 SP500 +3.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1580/195 mln/737 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1899/88 mln/771

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. News flow remains slow, so premarket participants have kept most of their focus on the official nonfarm payrolls report, which was released this past Friday, when the stock market was closed in observance of Good Friday. Though the report was rather mixed, the generally positive bias among market participants has placed more attention on the report's silver lining than its shortcomings. In turn, a higher start to the first trading session of the new week looks to be in order. Oil prices have already climbed sharply. The price of crude oil is up 1.2% to $85.90 per barrel, which marks a new 52-week high. Coming up are a couple of nuggets of data. Specifically, the ISM Service Index for March is due at 10:00 AM ET, along with pending home sales figures for February. Results from an $8 billion 10-year TIPS auction will follow at 1:00 PM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50. Stock futures continue to suggest that a solid start is in order for the session. Oil prices are already up with impressive gains. In the first few moments of pit trade, the price for crude oil is $85.85 per barrel, up 1.2%. Such strength has helped give the CRB Commodity Index a 0.5% gain. As for the dollar, it is currently flat against a basket of competing currencies.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30. Most major overseas markets remained closed for holiday observance on Monday. Japan's Nikkei was an exception. Though it finished off of its session highs, it was still able to book a 0.5% gain, which was enough to put it at a fresh 52-week high. Gains were broad based as its advancing issues outnumbered its decliners by more than 4-to-1. Fanuc LTD was a primary leader in the action. Kyocera (KYO) was also especially strong. China's Shanghai Composite was closed Monday, but over the weekend the U.S. Treasury decided to delay a report to Congress on the currency policies of China, among other major trading partners. On a related note, Reuters reported that China's central bank expects the dollar to strengthen this year if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates earlier than other major economies and sovereign debt problems in the euro zone persist. To the latter point, Reuters reported that Greek Deputy Prime Minister Pangalos stated that the sort of debt problems seen in Greece are likely to spread further in the eurozone and Portugal could be the next victim. One factor that could impede gains by the greenback, though, is the huge U.S. fiscal and trade deficits, according to China's central bank in a Reuters report. Officials from the central bank also stated that huge, hidden bank bad loans in the West could pose a threat to the global economy.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.30. Participants have returned from the long, holiday weekend with what currently appears to be a positive bias. In turn, stock futures suggest a higher start to the first session of this week. News flow this morning has been relatively slow, but fresh on the minds of many is the official jobs report that was released this past Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls Report indicated that 162,000 positions were added to payrolls in March. Though that was the biggest gain in three years, it still wasn't as much as the increase of 184,000 positions that had been expected. Also of note, the unemployment rate remained at 9.7%, as expected. Outside of the headline figures, the number of long-term unemployed increased to 6.5 million from 6.1 million in February in an indication that some 44% of all workers officially counted as unemployed have been out of work 27 weeks or longer. That is up sharply from the near 25% rate one year ago. Meanwhile, the count for total unemployed, all marginally attached workers, and those employed part-time for economic reasons increased to 16.9% from 16.8% in a move that indicates roughly one out of every six workers over age 16 is either unemployed or underemployed.

06:24 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00.

06:24 am : Nikkei...11339.30...+53.20...+0.50%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:24 am : FTSE...Holiday......... DAX...Holiday.........

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
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