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 Post subject: September 9th Wednesday 2009 - Futures, ETFs and Forex
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:04 pm 
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Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2008 1:02 am
Posts: 3326
Location: Canada


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Session Start: Wed Sep 09 09:27:53 2009
Session Ident: #futurestrades
[09:27] * Now talking in #futurestrades
[09:27] <@X> [NihabaAshi] Announcement: The new trade posting script v3.7 (replaces v3.6) is posted at your forum in the "Announcements" thread.
[09:29] <drt> gm all
[09:30] <jbuch> morningeveryone
[09:30] <pat255> gm all
[09:36] <@wrbtrader> Good morning all
[09:37] <+pat255> gm N
[09:37] <Forex2stay> morning all
[09:41] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1023.75 -> large size
[09:41] <@wrbtrader> 9 only
[09:42] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1023.75
[09:43] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1024 --> + 0.25
[09:43] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1024.00 --> - 0.25
[09:44] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1024.50 -> large size
[09:44] <@wrbtrader> 9 only
[09:44] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1024
[09:45] <@wrbtrader> jbuch...we need to be careful...we're trading within a very small range here that can easily chop.
[09:45] <+pat255> y looks like
[09:46] <@wrbtrader> If we can get above 1026...I won't be as paranoid.
[09:47] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1026.75 --> + 2.75
[09:49] <@wrbtrader> Exited ES Long @ 1027.00 --> + 2.5
[09:49] <@wrbtrader> Holding 2 contract remainders
[09:49] <+pat255> vn start
[09:49] <rickf> gm a
[09:49] <+rickf> gm all
[09:49] * rickf is now known as rickf_editing
[09:50] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1026.5
[09:50] <@wrbtrader> thanks...a lot better than yesterday with the early morning data problems that caused me to reboot my entire network...missing good entries on the only decent price action in that morning.
[09:51] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1028.5 --> + 2
[09:51] <@wrbtrader> Exited ES Long @ 1028.00 --> + 3.5
[09:51] <@wrbtrader> Holding 1 contract remainder
[09:52] <+jbuch> had a target 1030 should have held on
[09:53] <codehead> nice, guys
[09:53] <+jbuch> good to see some volatility
[09:54] <+Forex2stay> yes indeed that's a good run guys
[09:54] <+jbuch> thanks
[09:55] <+jbuch> hey rick how goes the thesis
[09:55] <+rickf_editing> it goes :)
[09:56] <+rickf_editing> editing editing is easier than writing
[09:56] <+rickf_editing> under deadline this month to get draft done --- hard to edit and trade, i only have 2 eyes
[09:56] <+jbuch> sounds like a ton of fun :)
[09:57] <+rickf_editing> except when it's a nice w/e and you are stuck inside on computer
[09:58] <+rickf_editing> by way of trades yesterday and today i have taken a more bearish position on my equity portfolio using long put options; i am getting away from the SDS as a hedge
[09:58] <+rickf_editing> levered ETFs are under the gun these days, unfortunately
[09:58] <+jbuch> yeah I have eliminated most of the etf's as well
[09:58] <+jbuch> I cannot believe that we r back up here after that plunge last
[09:59] <+rickf_editing> indeed
[09:59] <+rickf_editing> vix @ 25 for a while too
[10:04] <+jbuch> don't follow vix is that bullish or bearish
[10:04] <+rickf_editing> below 20 generally is 'bullish'
[10:04] <+rickf_editing> over 30 is supposedly bearish ... so at 80 last year we supposedlyt faced armageddon
[10:04] <+rickf_editing> i dont pay it THAT much credence anymore tho
[10:05] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[10:05] <+Forex2stay> EURJPY volital today...60 pip price swings in the last 5 minutes
[10:06] <+Forex2stay> EURUSD not following though
[10:07] <+Forex2stay> i read this morning where JPY is worried about the Yen becoming too strong and hurting their exports...they are famous for currency manipulation
[10:08] <+jbuch> took a sim trade in eu last friday up 2500 dollars right now
[10:08] <+jbuch> breaking my heart
[10:08] <+Forex2stay> nice
[10:09] <@wrbtrader> I remember many years ago the YEN was a hot currency to trade.
[10:09] <+rickf_editing> vn
[10:09] <+jbuch> thanks rick on ur vic response
[10:09] <+rickf_editing> np
[10:10] <+rickf_editing> might want to check out http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/
[10:10] <+rickf_editing> good stuff there
[10:10] <+jbuch> thanks
[10:10] <+codehead> tick fade went short 1029.25
[10:20] <+jbuch> I have read that as a result of gov. manipulation currencies tend to trend nicely
[10:20] <@wrbtrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1029.75 --> + 5.25
[10:21] <+pat255> vn
[10:21] <+jbuch> beauty n
[10:22] <+rickf_editing> wtg
[10:22] <@wrbtrader> :)
[10:22] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1029.75
[10:23] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1029.75 --> 0
[10:25] <@wrbtrader> Looks like any currency paired with the YEN is getting hit hard this morning.
[10:25] <+jbuch> bummer
[10:26] <@wrbtrader> U.S. dollar has been a stinker since 3:30am est this morning
[10:28] <@wrbtrader> Reminder: The 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report is not today...it's Thursday due to Monday's holiday.
[10:28] <+pat255> thks
[10:29] <@wrbtrader> However, a lot of traders forget and it usually results in a price reaction around 1030am est :)
[10:29] <@wrbtrader> On Wednesday today
[10:38] <pdays> Shorts ES @ 1028.5
[10:38] <+pdays> Covered all ES Short @ 1028.0 --> + 0.5
[10:45] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1029.25 -> small size
[10:45] <@wrbtrader> 3 only
[10:46] <@wrbtrader> Reading "How the Government Dealt With Past Recessions" @ http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009 ... aphic.html
[10:47] <@wrbtrader> Was reading that when I was bored prior to the current Long position
[10:49] <+pat255> l is the way to go but dead
[10:50] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1028.50 --> - 0.75
[11:05] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1030.00 -> medium size
[11:05] <@wrbtrader> 4 only
[11:08] <+pat255> geez n u got guts but right trade
[11:08] <@wrbtrader> tough trade
[11:08] <+pat255> y
[11:08] <@wrbtrader> can't hold the 1030 area
[11:11] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1029.25 --> - 0.75
[11:12] <OICU812> good morning all
[11:15] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1029.75 -> large size
[11:15] <@wrbtrader> 6 only
[11:15] <+OICU812> on what do you base your decision of size?
[11:20] <@wrbtrader> oicu812 - I increased my position size due to "intermarket analysis" of other key markets in that I saw Oil and Gold stabilize at the time of my entry into Emini ES...prior two longs I did not have that support at the time of entry.
[11:21] <@wrbtrader> How ever, what the market does AFTER entry is an entirely different story :(
[11:23] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1031.50 --> + 1.75
[11:23] <+pat255> vn
[11:27] <@wrbtrader> nice volatility spike that pushed it above 1032
[11:27] <+pat255> y
[11:31] <+jbuch> hey oic
[11:38] <@wrbtrader> Looks like I caught the last pullback before it popped to the upside because there has been no entry into it since then
[11:39] <@wrbtrader> just sitting here watching it go higher
[11:41] <+jbuch> es seems to be flying solo gold EU oil have not broken out yet
[11:42] <@wrbtrader> their stable...that's enough to keep this upwards
[11:42] <@wrbtrader> Oil just cracked...losing a little steam
[11:44] <@wrbtrader> ES hanging tough @ 1034.50 after losing support from Oil
[11:44] <@wrbtrader> Gould just spiked back upwards...geeesh.
[11:45] <@wrbtrader> Gould = Oil
[11:45] <+jbuch> dang nice steady move
[11:45] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1034.50 -> small size
[11:45] <@wrbtrader> 2 only
[11:45] <@wrbtrader> intuition
[11:46] <@wrbtrader> looking for a few ticks
[11:47] <@wrbtrader> ES within a key price area...lets see if I caught it's first pullback since that most recent parabolic price rise.
[11:48] <@wrbtrader> I'm getting some help from Oil but not from Gold :(
[11:48] <@wrbtrader> need both on my side
[11:48] <+OICU812> good point to scale on ES
[11:50] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1034.00 --> + 0.5
[12:08] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[12:40] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1033.25
[12:49] <+jbuch> whats happening luffy
[12:49] <+rickf_editing> tech news at 1pm ... apple event
[12:50] <+jbuch> thanks rick
[12:50] <luffy> sup jb
[12:51] <+rickf_editing> np
[12:51] <+luffy> i'm adjusting to this trending market last couple days.. my range fading not working out soo well
[12:51] <+luffy> i shorted 29.75 earlier before the break... i gotta start thinking trending sooner in the day
[12:52] <+codehead> me too
[12:52] <+codehead> on the latter
[12:52] <+luffy> anyone buy the low today?
[12:52] <+luffy> looks obvious now...
[12:52] <+luffy> but... didn't pull the trigger
[12:52] <+jbuch> I came close
[12:52] <+codehead> tho i did short 1033.25 and stop out at exactly hod :-/
[12:52] <+luffy> damn code
[12:53] <+luffy> that sucks i know how u feel
[12:53] <+codehead> got it back 1034.50 but wasn't patient enough, so went to the side
[12:53] <+luffy> ic
[12:53] <+codehead> aapl popping into their media event
[12:54] <+codehead> we have beige book at 2pm
[12:54] <+luffy> whats beige book?
[12:54] <+codehead> fed report
[12:55] <+codehead> economic conditions
[12:55] <+codehead> federal reserve
[12:56] <+luffy> oh ok
[12:56] <+luffy> thnx
[12:58] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1034.25 --> + 1
[12:59] <+jbuch> luffy and code any ideas on ways to try and guess if it is going to trend or not.
[13:00] <+luffy> i try to look at the vol
[13:00] <+luffy> today didn't work probably rollover
[13:00] <+codehead> i've been looking at software that does that, friend tried it recently and recommended--sitl evaluating, not sure about it
[13:00] <+codehead> called trendprophecy (dot com)
[13:00] <+codehead> trial is 30 min delayed
[13:01] <+codehead> just interested because i need to trade more with trend
[13:01] <+jbuch> I look at vol as well
[13:01] <+codehead> may be a help, not sure
[13:01] <+jbuch> me either
[13:01] <+OICU812> my problem with that is that everything works some of the time
[13:01] <+OICU812> so when do you know if it will or if it wont
[13:02] <+jbuch> vol helps in many ways but can be decieving when trying to figure out sentiment
[13:02] <+OICU812> in my personal case, ive never found any edge on volume
[13:02] <+jbuch> that is everyones problem :)
[13:03] <+luffy> hehe oic is right.. nothing works all the time
[13:04] <+luffy> oic, do u have diff strategies for trending and ranging? or its all the same type of entry and just managing the exits
[13:06] <+luffy> oh man i shoulda bot 33s
[13:06] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1033.75
[13:07] <+luffy> nice long jb
[13:07] <+jbuch> I use several vol techniques that work well
[13:08] <+jbuch> but they fail sometimes just like everything
[13:12] <+OICU812> had not noticed the uptrendline holding price
[13:12] <+jbuch> I vacillate between using vol, the tick, trendlines, etc and just money managment.
[13:12] <+OICU812> i use just price
[13:12] <+OICU812> removed all else
[13:14] <+jbuch> probably the only good thing about them is it gives u a (probably false) belief that the market is not random :)
[13:15] <+jbuch> only have 1 would love to scale right now
[13:16] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1035.25 -> small size
[13:17] <@wrbtrader> 2 only
[13:17] <@wrbtrader> a little late...missed 1034.75
[13:20] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1035.50 --> + 0.25
[13:20] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1035.5 --> + 1.75
[13:20] <+jbuch> used vol to remain in that last trade
[13:22] <+codehead> markets aren't random--just chaotic :-)
[13:22] <+codehead> big difference
[13:22] <+codehead> weather isn't random, it's chaotic
[13:22] <+codehead> for example
[13:22] <+jbuch> but maybe the vol and my rule didn't matter and all that mattered is that I gave it a lil room
[13:23] <+jbuch> and all the rule did was to give me the confidence to remain in the trade
[13:28] <+luffy> nice jb
[13:29] <+jbuch> thanks
[13:30] <+jbuch> when systems go beyond the brains ability to organize does it matter if it is chaotic or random
[13:31] <+codehead> hehe
[13:31] <+codehead> well, i think it does, but indeed, in the heat of the moment it sometimes seems that way
[13:32] <+codehead> heard something form a chaos mathematician many years ago that stuck with me
[13:32] <+jbuch> some things work some days other things work other days the only variable that really matters is money managment IMO.
[13:32] <+codehead> he said that people, inherently, try to find simple models to describe a complex world
[13:32] <+codehead> and therefore are always wrong
[13:33] <+jbuch> yeah I have heard or read that as well
[13:33] <+codehead> i mean, easy to see that all the time--everyone says, "jeez, if i were President, i'd do this and that, and bingo, the country would be doing great"
[13:33] <+codehead> etc
[13:34] <+jbuch> not to go to far off but I think that is why we have the concept of god
[13:34] <+jbuch> to expain the things which we don't understand
[13:36] <+codehead> one thing i've got to say about that trendprophecy--it kicks butt on trend days--lol
[13:36] <+codehead> (as it should)
[13:36] <+jbuch> yup
[13:37] <+jbuch> with all the above being said a set of rules with good $ managment is the only way to go IMO
[13:37] <+codehead> yeah
[13:39] <+jbuch> and my rules say if there is a trend go with trend until there has been a significant trendline break and or a break ofa previous swing high
[13:40] <+codehead> i short FAS and FAZ recently--i'm ahead on both
[13:40] <+jbuch> or low
[13:40] <+codehead> noted that they are mirrors (theoretically)
[13:40] <+codehead> note
[13:42] <+jbuch> that is exactly why I am not using ETF's anymore
[13:43] <+codehead> the 3x leveraged funds can bleed pretty well (hence my double short)
[13:43] <+codehead> if you want to use the 3x funds, short the opposite one
[13:44] <+codehead> that is, if you want to go 3x long fund, short the short fund
[13:44] <+codehead> they are inherently biased downwards
[13:44] <+codehead> due to their very nature
[13:44] <+codehead> in keeping a constant leverage, they must average up
[13:45] <+codehead> when going up, and lighten when going down
[13:45] <+codehead> so on bounces they hold less, and on dumps they are holding more
[13:46] <+codehead> if the underlying simply moves up and down in a range, the leveraged funds will drop steadily
[13:46] <+codehead> so avoid holding overnight long--better to short the short fund for long
[13:48] <+jbuch> look at oil. it is back up at around 50 % percent of it's high whereas uso has recovered less than .25 %
[13:48] <+codehead> yep
[13:48] <+jbuch> thats very interesting code head
[13:48] <+jbuch> thanks
[13:48] <+codehead> different reaosn for USo tho
[13:48] <+codehead> cuz it's only 1x
[13:49] <+codehead> but it got killed with the huge cantango on the dump
[13:49] <+codehead> there was like $8 difference between the expiring contract and next one nearing rollover
[13:50] <+codehead> beige book 10 mins
[13:50] <+codehead> sure looking like market ran up into it
[13:51] <+jbuch> is that what is going on with UNG code.
[13:51] <+codehead> i haven't paid attention, don't know
[13:53] <+codehead> http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=fas# ... =undefined
[13:53] <+codehead> FAS vs FAZ intraday
[13:53] <+codehead> mirrored, right?
[13:53] <+codehead> now down below the chart, click "max"
[13:54] <+codehead> both are negative over their lifetimes
[13:55] <+codehead> however, they are not so bad if you look at past 3 months only
[13:55] <+codehead> i think it's because they have been so one-way
[13:55] <+codehead> it's the up & down that causes the decay
[13:55] <+jbuch> wow
[13:56] <+codehead> think about this:
[13:56] <+codehead> say you buy $100 worth of a 3x leveraged fund
[13:56] <+codehead> the fund puts up $200 to buy you $200 of the underlying
[13:56] <+codehead> $300 of the underlying
[13:56] <+jbuch> so if we have formed a top then a short in both would do really well
[13:56] <+codehead> right
[13:57] <+codehead> that's why i did a test drive last week, i'm up a bit in it
[13:57] <+codehead> anyway...
[13:57] <+codehead> say the underlying goes up 10% the first day you own it
[13:57] <+codehead> your $100 stake is worth $130
[13:58] <+codehead> but now you are underleveraged
[13:58] <+codehead> so the fund buys $60 more for you
[13:58] <+codehead> so your $130 (now) is leverageing $390
[13:58] <+codehead> their loan to you is now $260
[13:58] <+codehead> next day the underlying loses its pop, goes back to 100
[13:59] <+codehead> but you've averaged up, and your equity is now $94.55
[13:59] <+codehead> even though the underlying has not changed since you bought
[13:59] <+codehead> a bad deal
[14:00] <+codehead> they all bleed--the most volatile bleed the most
[14:02] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1033.5
[14:02] <+jbuch> chased tha all the way down
[14:11] <@wrbtrader> That's a lot of downside pressure since the top when Gold and Oil rolled over southward
[14:11] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[14:12] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1031.5 --> + 2
[14:12] <@wrbtrader> Gold below support big time while Oil is testing a support area.
[14:13] <+jbuch> just bailed on most of my gold position
[14:13] <+luffy> shorted 32.25 breakout... closed for 1 pt.. sim
[14:13] <+codehead> i sold CDE a few cents from the top yesterday
[14:14] <+luffy> dont like breakout plays much
[14:16] <+codehead> 1029.50 is symmetry, some buyers here
[14:17] <+jbuch> dang what a puss shoulda risked 2 ticks and left my profit target alone
[14:23] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1029.5
[14:26] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1029.25 --> + 0.25
[14:37] <+jbuch> Interesting lil documentary on past recessions thanks wrbtrader
[14:41] <+jbuch> I guess the member banks must be pessimistic
[14:44] <+codehead> potential for inverted ghost on cci if this doesn't break down
[14:47] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1028.75
[14:52] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1028.25 --> + 0.5
[14:52] <MK> Covered all ES Short @ 998 --> - 144.75 «« paper »»
[14:59] <+jbuch> MK let me be the 1 to ask the obvious ? is that right
[15:02] <+codehead> lol
[15:04] <+MK> no because positions were closed in stages and I was not here to post-overall was up
[15:05] <+jbuch> right on
[15:06] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1028.75
[15:07] <+rickf_editing> I can see the top of my desk again. I had no idea it was that nice shade of pale oak. *g*
[15:07] <+rickf_editing> oppps --- wrong window. sorry!
[15:07] <+jbuch> LOL
[15:07] <+rickf_editing> grr tabbed irc :(
[15:09] <+Forex2stay> got to be careful typing in the wrong window...i know people that almost got divorced doing that :)
[15:09] <+rickf_editing> heh true
[15:09] <+rickf_editing> btw if anyone wants depressing financial reading ... compelling as it might be....
[15:10] <+rickf_editing> check out the SEC IG report on the Madoff investigation
[15:10] <+rickf_editing> http://sec.gov/news/studies/2009/oig-509.pdf
[15:10] <+rickf_editing> absolutely incredible the incompetence @ that agency
[15:10] <+Forex2stay> bbl
[15:11] <+jbuch> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1030 --> + 1.25
[15:12] <+rickf_editing> vn
[15:12] <+jbuch> thanks
[15:14] <+jbuch> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1031 --> + 2.25
[15:15] <+MK> Shorts ES @ 1030.75 «« paper »»
[15:18] <+jbuch> man I hope that this volatility is here to stay for a while
[15:26] <+luffy> man i had long from 28.5 earlier.. got stopped almost to the tick
[15:26] <+luffy> no more 1 pt stops...
[15:26] <+luffy> i was gonna use bigger stop and scale in but got pussied out...
[15:26] <+luffy> and opted for 1 pt stop...
[15:33] <+MK> Shorts ES @ 1030.50 -> Add «« paper »»
[15:35] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1030.00 -> medium size
[15:35] <@wrbtrader> 4 only
[15:37] <@wrbtrader> geeesh...I just now see another key price area below my Short :(
[15:38] <@wrbtrader> don't want to get stuck within a small range between two key price areas.
[15:39] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1030.00 --> 0
[15:39] <kosmipt> wrbtrader, did you have red day yesterday, i believe it's first in a long while
[15:40] <@wrbtrader> I think it was the 3rd one of the year.
[15:41] <+kosmipt> volatility was pathetic yesterday, very hard to make money
[15:41] <@wrbtrader> Two others were shown as green on my broker trading screen but that screen doesn't calculate in commissions...with comissions as shown in my final statement that the broker sends out around midnight...I was in the red.
[15:41] <+kosmipt> oil, gold and euro currency were very volatile yesterday
[15:42] <@wrbtrader> Yesterday was red before commission calculations :(
[15:45] <@wrbtrader> This sums up nicely what happen in today's "Beige Book" @ http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2009/09/ ... econo.html
[15:45] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1032.25 -> medium size
[15:46] <@wrbtrader> oh boy :(
[15:48] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1033.25 --> + 1
[15:49] <@wrbtrader> horrible entry (chased it from 1031.25)
[15:49] <+kosmipt> looks like we're going back to test highs
[15:51] <+rickf_editing> short es 1033.75 paper
[15:56] <+rickf_editing> exit es 1032 +1.75 paper
[15:56] <+rickf_editing> good practice
[15:57] <+jbuch> vn rick
[15:57] <+rickf_editing> ty
[16:00] <+jbuch> have a good night all
[16:00] <+rickf_editing> you too
[16:10] <+rickf_editing> ok off for weekly chat .... see you tomorrow
[16:17] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.

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