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 Post subject: September 1st Tuesday 2009 - Futures, ETFs and Forex
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2009 10:09 am 
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Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2008 1:02 am
Posts: 3326
Location: Canada


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Session Start: Tue Sep 01 00:00:00 2009
[09:00] * codehead_afk is now known as codehead
[09:01] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[09:29] <drt> gm all
[09:29] <werner> gm all
[09:33] <@wrbtrader> Good morning all...a lot of news today around 10am est
[09:34] <jbuch> Long ES @ 1016.5
[09:34] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1017.75 --> + 1.25
[09:37] <+jbuch> only had 1 would have kept 1 in the hopes for 20
[09:37] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1017.75 -> large size
[09:37] <@wrbtrader> 9 only
[09:37] <JimL14> nq leading, w/oil & tf; went right to gap fill w/o stop
[09:38] <@wrbtrader> will be a tough trade
[09:39] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1018.00 --> + 0.25
[09:40] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1018.50 -> large size
[09:40] <@wrbtrader> 9 only
[09:41] <@wrbtrader> intuition in reaction to early out of prior trade
[09:41] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1019.00 --> + 0.5
[09:42] <JimL28> Long TF @ 571.9
[09:42] <pat255> gm all
[09:42] <+pat255> @office :(
[09:43] <@wrbtrader> sidelined...had my two chances and didn't make the best of them.
[09:43] <@wrbtrader> It's also nearing a key resistance area.
[09:43] <+JimL28> Exited all TF Long @ 572.5 --> + 0.6
[09:43] <+JimL14> miscued trlng stop ;<
[09:44] <+JimL14> too late now to fix reentry
[09:47] <+JimL14> thry're not waiting on any news, buying everyhting offered
[09:47] <@wrbtrader> 2 points deep into that resistance zone now of 1023 - 1020
[09:49] <+JimL14> zerohedge: "As expected ISM was leaked at 9:40"
[09:50] <@wrbtrader> I'm always sursprised that the SEC doesn't investigate what goes on involving the ISM.
[09:50] <@wrbtrader> It's notorious for LEAKING early.
[09:52] <@wrbtrader> I've seen 5 - 10 point ES moves within 10mins prior to the ISM report and then see the market volatility dry up fast around 10am est.
[09:52] <@wrbtrader> :(
[09:52] <+jbuch> dang cut an 8 point move off at 1 point
[09:53] <@wrbtrader> The Eurex DAX has had one a few big price moves today.
[09:54] <@wrbtrader> The biggest soon after 4am est
[09:54] <@wrbtrader> Huge drop
[09:56] <@wrbtrader> ES has now retraced it's own big price drop after 4am est.
[09:56] <@wrbtrader> I still can't find the source for that price drop :(
[09:56] <+pat255> Pending Home Sales: Consensus is 1.5%
[09:57] <@wrbtrader> Only thing I see is the 3:55am est German Unemployment Report
[09:57] <kosmipt> DAX have made a huge move this morning indeed
[09:58] <@wrbtrader> I thought the German numbers were normal or "as expected".
[10:00] <@wrbtrader> Anyways...I had a "suspicion" the big price drop after 4am est may be "retraced" prior to the 10am est economic reports.
[10:00] <@wrbtrader> Reason why I went Long on 9 contracts...twice :)
[10:00] <@wrbtrader> Good pennies only :(
[10:01] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1023.75 -> large size
[10:01] <@wrbtrader> 9 only
[10:01] <@wrbtrader> 3rd try at this
[10:02] <+jbuch> dang that was fast
[10:02] <+pat255> y nice catch N
[10:02] <@wrbtrader> Yes...gotta be careful...it can spike down just as fast.
[10:03] <+jbuch> chased it from 23 on up
[10:03] <+jbuch> couldn't even catch the ask
[10:03] <+jbuch> good ol 27
[10:04] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1025.25 --> + 1.5
[10:05] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1025.25
[10:05] <@wrbtrader> FYI - I was expecting a range trading day Tuesday or Wednesday.
[10:05] <@wrbtrader> Obviously Tuesday isn't going to be that day after the "surprising" market drop soon after 4am est.
[10:06] <@wrbtrader> sidelined again
[10:06] <@wrbtrader> 1030 isn't out of the question now...it's the next key resistance area
[10:06] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1027 --> + 1.75
[10:08] <@wrbtrader> correction...meant 1033 and not 1030
[10:08] <+pat255> too strong ...geez
[10:08] <@wrbtrader> Yeah...not decent retracement
[10:09] <@wrbtrader> It's the type of price action you rely heavily on your "market experience" with news events.
[10:10] <+werner> Shorts NQ @ 1647.50
[10:10] <+jbuch> pretty good numbers
[10:12] <+werner> Covered all NQ Short @ 1646.00 --> + 1.5
[10:14] <+werner> grrr
[10:20] <@wrbtrader> Big price swings today since 4am est
[10:21] <@wrbtrader> Volatility now showing signs of declining
[10:25] <+werner> Long NQ @ 1639.25
[10:26] <+werner> Exited all NQ Long @ 1641.25 --> + 2
[10:37] <+werner> mm don't see any entry's ...bbl
[10:47] <TraderG> jb, good news but no one seems to believe in them
[10:52] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1019.25 -> medium size
[10:52] <@wrbtrader> 4 only
[10:52] <@wrbtrader> poor entry
[10:54] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1019.00 --> + 0.25
[10:55] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1018.75 -> medium size
[10:55] <@wrbtrader> 4 only
[10:55] <@wrbtrader> intuition in reaction to prior early out due to impatience
[10:56] <@wrbtrader> There's some "very fast" trades occurring within a 1 tick range...
[10:57] <@wrbtrader> I can only see it via the prints and price sputtering around particular price levels.
[10:57] <@wrbtrader> Like some sort'uv automation systems just trying to capter 1 - 2 ticks
[11:00] <@wrbtrader> I saw this in the parabolic price rise going up...they usually were follow by a volatility spike.
[11:00] <@wrbtrader> That volatility spike was usually traders "jumping on the band wagon" at the same time.
[11:01] <@wrbtrader> ES has almost retrace the gains after 0930am est
[11:03] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1017.50 --> + 1.25
[11:07] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[11:09] <+TraderG> a few weeks ago I posted a link about HFT (high frequency trading). this is a good example of that.
[11:10] <@wrbtrader> Agree
[11:10] <+TraderG> in that article, it was mentioned that 60-75% of the trades are of that kind
[11:10] <+TraderG> there are some videos on YouTube about this.
[11:11] <+pat255> traderG cud pl post the link again ty
[11:11] <+TraderG> looking now...................... :)
[11:11] <+pat255> thks
[11:12] <+pat255> 8 pts up 8 down what a mkt
[11:12] <+TraderG> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOmt-zFaBE8
[11:13] <+TraderG> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124908601669298293.html
[11:13] <+TraderG> just do a search on HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING
[11:13] <+TraderG> lots of material about it
[11:13] <+jbuch> just got back wow
[11:14] <+TraderG> you missed all the fun
[11:15] <+TraderG> I have some good trading music if someone is interested
[11:15] <+TraderG> at least i think it is good 4 trading
[11:15] <@wrbtrader> they've all now given back their earlier big gains.
[11:15] <@wrbtrader> crazy
[11:16] <+jbuch> figured we were going to slip into the sideways catatonic state that we have been getting after a strong move
[11:16] <@wrbtrader> big swing day
[11:16] <+TraderG> or they doubled them
[11:16] <@wrbtrader> great for high volatility range traders
[11:16] <+TraderG> they are licking their chops :)
[11:17] <@wrbtrader> jbuch...I think rickf was thinking the same thing in that he mentioned he may take most of the week off.
[11:17] <+kosmipt> great volatility today, very unusual
[11:18] <@wrbtrader> I hate taking the day off because I thought not much was going to happen to only return to find out it was a big trend day or a high volatility range day :(
[11:18] <@wrbtrader> Good example of the market telling us "it's in charge".
[11:18] <@wrbtrader> :)
[11:18] <+TraderG> this is an old issue: how do you stay in a trade when it is in your favour. I made peenuts 2day. only a fraction of the moves
[11:18] <+TraderG> kicking myself in the u know where
[11:19] <+JimL14> B teams still on trading desks working the big range from 980-1040, work it up & down around the news events & churn some money
[11:19] <@wrbtrader> TraderG...if following your trading plan...nothing more you can do.
[11:19] <@wrbtrader> That's where your "market experience" needs to kick in or get involved.
[11:19] <@wrbtrader> It will tell you when to milk it.
[11:19] <+TraderG> it drives me nuts. cannot seems to overcome the urge to take a profit
[11:20] <+TraderG> while on vacation I had a trade on but I left. by the time I came back my target was hit and had I stayed I am sure I would have cut my profit short
[11:21] <+TraderG> making little profits is not sustainable
[11:21] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1010.75
[11:21] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1009.50 -> large size
[11:22] <@wrbtrader> 6 only
[11:22] <@wrbtrader> intuition
[11:22] <@wrbtrader> volatility still rising on this big price drop
[11:22] <@wrbtrader> crazy
[11:23] <@wrbtrader> tightning trailing stop to breakeven
[11:24] <@wrbtrader> Oil and Gold trying hard to stabilize.
[11:24] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1008.25 --> + 2.5
[11:25] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1009.00 --> + 0.5
[11:25] <@wrbtrader> If they don't...ES will drop another 2 points easy with this type of volatility
[11:26] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1008.75 -> large size
[11:26] <@wrbtrader> 6 only
[11:26] <@wrbtrader> intuition again
[11:27] <@wrbtrader> Oil and Gold weakening a little more
[11:30] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1005.25 --> + 3.5
[11:30] <@wrbtrader> was only looking for a few ticks on that trade...
[11:30] <@wrbtrader> Got much more and I think I did an early out due to all the downside pressure
[11:31] <@wrbtrader> The only way the prints on my screen can move that fast by the tick is if some HEAVY COMPUTER trades are occuring.
[11:31] <@wrbtrader> not enough retail folks to do that
[11:32] <@wrbtrader> That's big boys (institutional) letting their machines run wild :)
[11:32] <+jbuch> jeeez luise look at this plummet
[11:33] <+jbuch> just complete freefall
[11:38] <@wrbtrader> I don't get this feeling too often...a few times per year...
[11:38] <@wrbtrader> Feels like there's PIRANAHs in the water.
[11:44] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1004.5
[11:46] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1003.25 --> + 1.25
[11:46] <+JimL14> algo computers out of control now
[11:48] <+jbuch> had my exit at 2.25 touchedit but no fill
[11:53] <@wrbtrader> EuroFX, EurUsd getting crushed today
[11:53] <@wrbtrader> In contrast, US Dollar and Canadian Dollar are strongly higher today.
[11:54] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1003.5
[11:56] <@wrbtrader> This has to be more than just "investors opting to take profits" via the news of "U.S. Stocks Drop Sharply..." @ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-sto ... 2009-09-01
[11:56] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1003.25 --> + 0.25
[11:57] <+jbuch> can't take the heat get out of the kitchen
[11:57] <@wrbtrader> :)
[12:03] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1003.50 -> small size
[12:03] <@wrbtrader> 2 only
[12:04] <@wrbtrader> Fight has started now as the market attempts to stabilize and find some feet to stand up on.
[12:04] <+JimL14> u thinking 2x bottom maybe here?
[12:04] <@wrbtrader> Exited ES Long @ 1002.50 --> - 1
[12:04] <@wrbtrader> Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1002.50
[12:05] <@wrbtrader> JimL14...yest but it could be a 2x bottom with a range of 2 - 3 points as it tries to stabalize
[12:06] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1003.25 --> - 0.75
[12:06] <+jbuch> we were caught in a sideways channel in this area for 5 hours onthe 20 th
[12:07] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1002.25 -> medium size
[12:07] <@wrbtrader> 4 only
[12:07] <+JimL14> i think if we break 1000 all hell breaks loose then next ajor support 980ish
[12:08] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1003.00 --> - 0.75
[12:09] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1003.75 -> large size
[12:09] <@wrbtrader> 6 only
[12:09] <@wrbtrader> gotta have patience now
[12:14] <@wrbtrader> range tightning up as this potential 2x bottom tries to take shape
[12:14] <@wrbtrader> volatilty declining fast
[12:14] <@wrbtrader> won't risk another trade of size if volatility continues declining
[12:16] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1002.50 --> - 1.25
[12:16] <@wrbtrader> Just saw that "fast print" price action again.
[12:17] <@wrbtrader> It's about to move fast as in another BIG SPIKE
[12:19] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1002.00 -> large size
[12:19] <@wrbtrader> 6 only
[12:22] <@wrbtrader> September 2008 - The month that shook the World is being hyped all over the financial networks along with restating multiple times that September is one of the worst performing months of each year.
[12:22] <@wrbtrader> Almost like they're trying to talk this market downwards.
[12:23] <@wrbtrader> Back to the 1000 infamous level.
[12:23] <@wrbtrader> Expecting a good fight here.
[12:23] <+pat255> y
[12:25] <+werner> Long NQ @ 1600.50
[12:30] <@wrbtrader> There's that "fast trade" sputter again in the prints
[12:31] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1000.00 --> + 2
[12:32] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1001.5
[12:32] <+werner> Exited all NQ Long @ 1603.00 --> + 2.5
[12:32] <+jbuch> oops
[12:32] <OICU812> Hello to all
[12:33] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1000.5
[12:35] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1000 --> - 0.5
[12:36] <+jbuch> hey OIC
[12:37] <+OICU812> :)
[12:37] <+OICU812> hope you guys made a killing today
[12:37] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1000.5
[12:37] <+OICU812> we havent seen this market in a while
[12:37] <@wrbtrader> going to lunch...volatility is low enough where trading becomes too tricky for me
[12:37] * wrbtrader is now known as wrbtrader_away
[12:40] <+werner> bbl
[12:44] <+JimL14> TF drying up now, need to take a break, walk & prepare head, 2 live trades this am for minor profits & used good sense to go to sim when missed the entry of up move, need to think about mental plan for today's conditions - not mentally prepared for these conditions
[12:45] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1000.75 --> + 0.25
[12:48] <+jbuch> pretty good day here over my profit target so that is the main thing. How r u doing OIC
[12:48] <+OICU812> so far so good
[12:49] <+OICU812> 3 trades total today
[12:49] <+OICU812> swinging it
[12:52] <+jbuch> good day for swinging.
[12:57] <+jbuch> I was just telling my wife if everyday was like this it would be so easy to make a living at this game
[13:00] <+jbuch> oops I exited that last 1 at 1001.75 not 1000.75
[13:09] <+werner> Long NQ @ 1592.00
[13:13] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[13:14] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 998.25
[13:17] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 998.25 --> 0
[13:17] <+werner> Exited all NQ Long @ 1592.00 --> 0
[13:23] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 998.25
[13:24] <+werner> Long NQ @ 1593.00
[13:26] <+werner> Exited all NQ Long @ 1595.75 --> + 2.75
[13:27] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 999.75 --> + 1.5
[13:27] <+werner> :)
[13:30] <+jbuch> synchronized entries and exits :)
[13:30] <+jbuch> gonna take a breather BBL
[14:35] <+jbuch> Thanks for keeping it right were I left it :)
[14:36] <+werner> lol
[14:51] <+werner> Long NQ @ 1599.00
[14:57] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1000
[15:01] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1000.25 --> + 0.25
[15:05] * wrbtrader_away is now known as wrbtrader
[15:07] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1001
[15:07] <+werner> Exited all NQ Long @ 1600.00 --> + 1
[15:08] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1001 --> 0
[15:09] <+jbuch> chop fest
[15:09] <+werner> djeez
[15:13] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1001.25 -> small size
[15:13] <@wrbtrader> 3 only
[15:16] <+JimL14> these choppy uptrend on hard to get on & I sweat the whole time moving up my stops waiting for the bottom of the trend to fail, too fast to even post in sim
[15:16] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[15:17] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1001.5
[15:20] <+jbuch> it is holding that trendline
[15:21] <+werner> Shorts NQ @ 1600.50
[15:21] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1000.25 --> - 1
[15:22] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1000.25 --> + 1.25
[15:22] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 999.75 -> small size
[15:22] <+jbuch> shoot broke it
[15:22] <@wrbtrader> 1 only
[15:22] <@wrbtrader> don't trust the 1000 price area
[15:23] <@wrbtrader> its a prior key line in the sand that was hyped awhile ago (several weaks ago)
[15:25] <+werner> Covered all NQ Short @ 199.00 --> + 1401.5
[15:25] <+werner> oeps
[15:26] <+werner> Covered all NQ Short @ 1599.00 --> + 1.5
[15:26] <+jbuch> nice werner
[15:26] <+werner> tx :)
[15:28] <+JimL28> Shorts TF @ 558.6
[15:28] <+JimL28> Covered 1/2 TF Short @ 558 --> + 0.6
[15:29] <+werner> Shorts NQ @ 1598.00
[15:31] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 998.25
[15:31] <+JimL28> Covered Remainder TF Short @ 557 --> + 1.6
[15:33] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 998.75 --> - 0.5
[15:34] <+werner> Covered all NQ Short @ 1598.00 --> 0
[15:35] <@wrbtrader> Covered ES Short @ 998.50 --> + 1.25
[15:36] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 998.25
[15:37] <+JimL28> Long TF @ 557.3
[15:38] <+JimL28> Exited all TF Long @ 557.4 --> + 0.1
[15:38] <+werner> Shorts NQ @ 1597.75
[15:38] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 998.5 --> + 0.25
[15:38] <@wrbtrader> I see that "fast trades" again in the prints
[15:38] <+jbuch> oops sorry forgot to hit enter on the post
[15:39] <+jbuch> yeah it is going crazy
[15:40] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 998.00 -> small size
[15:40] <+werner> go go tf
[15:40] <@wrbtrader> 3 only
[15:41] <+JimL28> Shorts TF @ 556.8
[15:41] <+JimL28> Covered all TF Short @ 556.7 --> + 0.1
[15:41] <@wrbtrader> those prints are getting faster now...
[15:41] <@wrbtrader> something is going to pop
[15:41] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 997.75
[15:41] <@wrbtrader> hopefully down and not up
[15:42] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 998 --> + 0.25
[15:43] <+werner> pfffff
[15:44] <@wrbtrader> :(
[15:44] <@wrbtrader> getting nowhere here
[15:44] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 997.75
[15:44] <@wrbtrader> just lost my patience
[15:44] <+werner> go go es
[15:45] <+werner> djeez
[15:46] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 995.75 --> + 2.25
[15:46] <+werner> Covered all NQ Short @ 1594.75 --> + 3
[15:47] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 996.25 --> + 1.5
[15:48] <+werner> done here guys
[15:48] <@wrbtrader> another minute at 997.75 and I would have dumped it there :)
[15:49] <+jbuch> well done werner
[15:49] <jigglyhippo> nice trades guys
[15:49] <+jbuch> have a good night
[15:49] <+werner> you too :)
[15:52] <+jbuch> bloody day
[15:52] <@wrbtrader> Mark Hulbert over at MarketWatch calls September "The Cruelest Month" but also saids it's possible its just a "statistical pattern fluke" @ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/septem ... 2009-09-01
[15:54] <@wrbtrader> Here's my theory via a conversation I remember having with a few floor traders that were working buddies of my step-father back in 1980...
[15:55] <+jbuch> bamn look at that
[15:55] <+TraderG> if all these pundits would have a clue what they are talking about, they would be trading and not writing :))
[15:56] <@wrbtrader> Their theory was that it's the month where traders and investors pulls money out of the market to pay those education bills for their kids (private schools, college et cetera)...
[15:56] <@wrbtrader> It's also a month to pay off the credit cards after to big summer vacations...
[15:56] <+TraderG> so what about January and all the Christmas expenses?
[15:57] <+TraderG> February should be even worse
[15:57] <@wrbtrader> College payments is much higher than XMAS shopping.
[15:57] <@wrbtrader> At least if was for my parents :)
[15:57] <+TraderG> you r right about that
[15:58] <+TraderG> forgot how expensive it was 4 me and now it is even more so
[15:58] <@wrbtrader> Anyways...that was a theory floating around the floor traders about why September was a losing month because traders and investors had big bills to pay :)
[15:59] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 997.50 -> small size
[15:59] <@wrbtrader> 3 only
[16:00] <@wrbtrader> support broken
[16:00] <@wrbtrader> gotta survive that "fast trades" computer entries :)
[16:02] <+jigglyhippo> have a good night all
[16:07] <+jbuch> dang the last 10 minutes was a mini version of the day
[16:08] <+jbuch> have a good night all
[16:14] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 996.25 --> + 1.25
[16:27] <@wrbtrader> Take care and see all tomorrow.
[16:27] * wrbtrader is now known as wrbtrader_away

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