##TheStrategyLab Price Action Chat Room Logs

Note: The chat log below represents the free chat room called #FuturesTrades . Also, any trader can use the chat room to post their trades. Simply, you don't need to be a client of TheStrategyLab.com to use the chat room nor do you need to be a price action only trader (no indicators) because some members use indicators while others do not.

Therefore, we welcome traders with their own methods and different perspective of the markets.

Also, our primary job in the free chat room is to moderate the room (keep the peace) because with so many members using different methods along with different opinions about the market...debates or arguments can easily flare up without moderating. In addition, our presence in the chat room is to ensure it's a spam free chat room during trading although these archived chat logs may contain advertisments for guest visitors. More information about #FuturesTrades @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm

Further, to prevent the usual mix-up about our different chat rooms, most of our fee-base clients do not use chat rooms just like most retail traders do not use chat rooms. Yet, the few clients that do use chat rooms, our fee-base clients are discussing market analysis or trade signals via concepts from our strategies in the private chat rooms called #VolatilityTradingTSL or #SwingTradingTSL and they're not allowed to do such in #FuturesTrades.

By the way, our Terms of Use (TOU) Policy is a must read to prevent any misunderstandings along with revealing that #FuturesTrades is a serious professional trading chat room and we expect members to act professional.

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Session Start: Wed Jul 15 08:06:46 2009
Session Ident: #futurestrades
[08:06] * Now talking in #futurestrades
[08:06] <@X> [NihabaAshi] Announcement: The new trade posting script v3.7 (replaces v3.6) is posted at your forum in the "Announcements" thread.
[08:23] <rickf> cpi @ 0830
[08:31] <@NihabaAshi> Reminder: O
[08:31] <@NihabaAshi> I'm back to trading Emini ES
[08:31] <+rickf> welcome back :0
[08:32] <@NihabaAshi> Hopefully the liquidity and activity in ICE Emini TF (formerly ER2) picks up by end of year.
[08:33] <+rickf> i said last week it trended well (to me) but the b/a skipping around was unsettling
[08:33] <+rickf> had a few bad fills
[08:33] <@NihabaAshi> It's a shame that the CME gave the Russell to ICE which has proven itself for increasing interest/liquidity.
[08:33] <@NihabaAshi> meant has NOT proven itself
[08:34] <+rickf> the er2 scared me 3 years ago when i started trading it ... now that i'm able to trade it comfortably (ie, not a full newbie) it's not as good as it was
[08:34] <+rickf> is why i moved to the ES
[08:34] <@NihabaAshi> true
[08:35] <@NihabaAshi> I may still trade TF but only on trading days that I think has a good chance to be a trend day or strong parabolic price actions...increasing volatility.
[08:36] <@NihabaAshi> Anybody here uses "Facebook" and if so...do you like it or use it often
[08:36] <+rickf> nope
[08:36] <+rickf> only linkedin
[08:37] <@NihabaAshi> Is linkedin for commercial/professionals
[08:37] <+rickf> anyone who wants to develop contact lists and stay in touch
[08:38] <+rickf> individuals, professionals, friends, etc
[08:38] <+rickf> i use it so journalists can find me
[08:38] <@NihabaAshi> Ahhh...ok.
[08:38] <+rickf> i dont blog or anything like that, just an online rolodex and "flagpole" to find me aside from my own website
[08:39] <@NihabaAshi> Ok
[08:39] <+rickf> long 6E 1.4092
[08:42] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 912.25 -> small size
[08:42] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[08:43] <@NihabaAshi> By the way, I currently have a bullish bias eventhough I just took a Short position...
[08:43] <@NihabaAshi> don't plan on holding the short too long is it doesn't go my way soon.
[08:47] <+rickf> exit 6E 1.4094 +2
[08:50] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 913.00 --> - 0.75
[09:00] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[09:08] * codehead_afk is now known as codehead
[09:22] <Nesi> hi all
[09:23] <@NihabaAshi> We're going to have a HUGE gap up at the opening bell.
[09:24] <@NihabaAshi> I'm expecting a range day today...
[09:25] <@NihabaAshi> If it trends, I'll be a little surprise.
[09:25] <OICU812> GM
[09:26] <@NihabaAshi> Good morning OICU812 and all
[09:29] <drt>
[09:30] <jbuch> morning all
[09:31] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 913.00 -> small size
[09:31] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[09:31] <@NihabaAshi> intuition in reaction to prior short position
[09:32] <Awash> good morning all
[09:33] <@NihabaAshi> oh oh
[09:34] <luffy>
[09:34] <@NihabaAshi> tighten stop
[09:35] <@NihabaAshi> Covered ES Short @ 913.75 --> - 0.75
[09:35] <@NihabaAshi> Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 913.75
[09:37] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 913.00 --> - 0.75
[09:37] <+drt> l es 12.75
[09:39] <@NihabaAshi> volatility very low
[09:39] <@NihabaAshi> It's gotta spike here soon
[09:40] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 913.5
[09:40] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 914.50 -> medium size
[09:40] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[09:41] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 914.75 --> + 1.25
[09:41] <+drt> cl es 14.75
[09:41] <+jbuch> nice drt
[09:42] <@NihabaAshi> Alert: Be careful of the potential tight trading range....volatility looks odd
[09:43] <@NihabaAshi> If this can reach 916 on high volatility...
[09:43] <@NihabaAshi> I'll feel a lot better about the volatility along with changing my view about the range day.
[09:43] <+luffy> long 915.25
[09:44] <+luffy> if today's gonna trend.. just hold all day
[09:44] <@NihabaAshi> A 917 would start to shake some weak shorts.
[09:44] <@NihabaAshi> That could cause a "short squeeze".
[09:47] <+luffy> hehe yea, lets see if this retrace is small
[09:47] <@NihabaAshi> Like yesterday...Eurex DAX gets lethargic in the first hour of trading.
[09:49] <@NihabaAshi> News - Oil near $61 as traders eye US inventories @ http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-near- ... 2.html?x=0
[09:52] <+luffy> i dont like that lower high
[09:52] <+luffy> looks like 123 setup for short
[09:52] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 915.50 --> + 1
[09:52] <TradeLancer> 10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
[09:54] <+luffy> out -1tick
[09:55] <@NihabaAshi> Oil and Gold ranging for past 10 mins
[09:56] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 916.00 -> small size
[09:56] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[09:57] <@NihabaAshi> that's a lot of volatility over the last 1min of prints
[09:58] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 916.75
[10:00] <@NihabaAshi> Exited 2/3 ES Long @ 917.25 --> + 1.25
[10:01] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 917.25 --> - 0.5
[10:02] <@NihabaAshi> so far...not a range day and it's trying to trend
[10:04] <@NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 916.50 --> + 0.5
[10:04] <@NihabaAshi>
[10:06] <+rickf> long es 917
[10:07] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 916.75
[10:08] <+codehead> short ES 2c 917.25 <paper>
[10:08] <+codehead> 919.25-919.5 is major
[10:08] <+rickf> exit es 917.25 +.25
[10:09] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 917 --> + 0.25
[10:09] <+codehead> potential cci vegas pattern on 3 min
[10:10] <+codehead> need a little dip for it to print
[10:10] <pdays> Shorts ES @ 917.25
[10:10] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 917
[10:12] <+pdays> Covered all ES Short @ 916.75 --> + 0.5
[10:13] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 916.75 --> + 0.25
[10:14] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 916.75
[10:16] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 917 --> + 0.25
[10:17] <+rickf> looking long but dontl ike the chop
[10:17] <+rickf> hence i wait
[10:19] <+rickf> then again... maybe it'll roll over
[10:19] <+rickf> hence i wait still
[10:21] <+codehead> ES still trying for gap fill
[10:22] <Awash> code, you're referring to the July 1st close of 919.50?
[10:23] <+codehead> yes
[10:23] <+Awash> k
[10:23] <+Awash> watching that area too
[10:23] <+codehead> 919.25 is also major .618 retracement
[10:23] <+codehead> the regular session ES high to low 865.25
[10:24] <+codehead> 952.75 high
[10:24] <+Awash> k
[10:24] <+Awash> i see that
[10:25] <+Awash> there's been a lot of volume on this morning as we've traded higher
[10:27] <+codehead> cash almost fill...
[10:27] <+codehead> oil report in 4 mins
[10:32] <+codehead> ES gap fill
[10:33] <+pdays> Shorts ES @ 919..0
[10:34] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 919
[10:34] <+pdays> Covered all ES Short @ 918.5 --> + 919..0 - 918.5
[10:35] <+pdays> wow
[10:35] <+pdays> +.5
[10:37] <@NihabaAshi> Been waiting for a pullback since 1015am est to setup something...
[10:37] <+luffy> does today look like program buying to u guys?
[10:37] <@NihabaAshi> still waiting.
[10:38] <Nesi> creeping up slowly
[10:39] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 919 --> 0
[10:39] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 010.25
[10:40] <+Awash> luffy, i think what you see in the ES is programs trading off black box systems daily
[10:40] <+Awash> everyday, all day
[10:40] <+Awash> even now
[10:42] <+luffy> ok
[10:42] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 918 --> - 907.75
[10:43] <+jbuch> oops entry was 919.25
[10:44] <+luffy> long 18.25
[10:45] <+luffy> see what happens
[10:46] <+rickf> meh ... gym time, back later
[10:48] <+codehead> paper entry i posted earlier was a tick fade trade, but didn't notice one of the criteria was not met, so shouldn't have entered
[10:49] <+codehead> it would have timed out anyway, so exit ES -1.25 <paper> here
[10:49] <+luffy> out +1tick
[10:50] <+codehead> my real trades were short 916.25, twice 919.25, all +.75--the last one was the one to hold for a try, after gap fill, but got weary
[10:50] <+codehead> as long as it doesn't touch 920.25, should see a few points pb
[10:54] <+codehead> cci finally rolling over a bit here
[10:54] <+codehead> first 3 min close under 0
[11:03] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[11:09] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 918.75
[11:15] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 918.75 --> 0
[11:53] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 922.00 -> small size
[11:53] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[11:54] <+luffy> long 922
[11:55] <@NihabaAshi> it rolled over too easily
[11:55] <@NihabaAshi> now it's going to need help from other key markets
[11:55] <+codehead> lunch time
[11:55] <+codehead> remember
[11:56] <+codehead> potential reversal time coming into lunch
[11:56] <+codehead> oil hod
[11:56] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...just came back from an easrly lunch
[11:56] <@NihabaAshi> early
[11:59] <@NihabaAshi> still waiting for help from other key markets
[12:01] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 921.50 --> - 0.5
[12:02] <@NihabaAshi> other markets starting to range to setup a good chance for a volatility spike...
[12:02] <@NihabaAshi> will try to ride that pending soon to be spike
[12:03] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 921.5
[12:06] <@NihabaAshi> weak support formed
[12:06] <@NihabaAshi> should setup the spike
[12:07] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 921 --> + 0.5
[12:09] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 921
[12:10] <+jbuch> never a godd sign filled without going past
[12:10] <@NihabaAshi> so much easier to be patient when not in a trade position
[12:12] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 921.25 --> + 0.25
[12:13] <+jbuch> tick coming down but shoulda kept my stop
[12:13] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 921.50 -> small size
[12:13] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[12:17] <@NihabaAshi> slow developing volatility spike
[12:17] <+jbuch> dropped the ball on that 1
[12:18] <@NihabaAshi> key markets not in sync
[12:18] <@NihabaAshi> If Gold and the DAX can join in...it'll easily test 923.00
[12:19] <@NihabaAshi> If not...it'll be a +0.25 exit for me
[12:21] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 922.00 --> + 0.5
[12:21] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 922.25
[12:21] <@NihabaAshi> lost my patience
[12:24] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 922.5 --> - 0.25
[12:25] <jigglyhippo> no trades for me today
[12:27] <@NihabaAshi> ES is like out their on its own trying to go higher
[12:28] <@NihabaAshi> nobody wants to help it so it's clawing for every higher tick
[12:32] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 922.5
[12:35] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 922.75 --> + 0.25
[12:38] <@NihabaAshi> today should have been a tight trading range day
[12:38] <@NihabaAshi> The current trend day is putting a TON of pressure on the shorts
[12:38] <@NihabaAshi> reference to swing shorts...those holding overnight short positions
[12:48] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 922.5
[12:54] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 922.5 --> 0
[12:54] <MK> Shorts ES @ 922.25 «« paper »»
[13:01] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 922.25
[13:04] <+jbuch> it is like after hours trading
[13:05] <+jbuch> put a trade on ,tight stop, go watch some boob tube maybe it works out maybe not.
[13:06] <+luffy> lol
[13:06] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[13:10] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 922.5 --> + 0.25
[13:10] <+TradeLancer> only way to play it (unless u sit on hands [SOH]), not enuff back & forth to guage anything, just got to hope a pullback & long will work when you roll the dice
[13:13] <+jbuch> could be 3 push top here
[13:22] <+rickf> back
[13:24] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 923.25 -> small size
[13:24] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[13:24] <TraderG> THE EXIT is the most important aspect of trading
[13:24] <+TraderG> just writing 2 myself
[13:33] <+TraderG> every time i write something there is dead silence (because I cannot hear u type:) ) r u guys digesting my PROFOUND idea?
[13:33] <+rickf> The EXIT is merely the ENTRY to the next trade
[13:34] <+rickf> so there
[13:34] <+rickf>
[13:35] <+TraderG> ty ty ty rickf. u r a gentleman
[13:35] <+rickf> glad you think so
[13:36] <+TraderG> anybody here would like to comment whether buying an i7 based MOBO is worth the dough?
[13:37] <+rickf> *shrug*
[13:43] <codehead> i dunno, i got an 8-core Mac Pro (i7) works nice
[13:43] <+TraderG> 8 core?
[13:44] <+TraderG> didn't know they existed
[13:45] <@NihabaAshi> Exited 2/3 ES Long @ 924.50 --> + 1.25
[13:45] <@NihabaAshi> trail @ breakeven on remainder
[13:47] <+codehead> 925.25 is a target
[13:47] <+codehead> fomc mins top of hour
[13:50] <@NihabaAshi> yep
[13:50] <@NihabaAshi> its the only reason why I'm still holding...
[13:50] <+codehead> short 2c ES 924.75 <paper>
[13:50] <+codehead> just testing the 925.25 target, but not guts to try it real ;-)
[13:51] <@NihabaAshi> Already reach my goal for the trade and decided to let it ride on the remainder.
[13:51] <+codehead> nice
[13:51] <+codehead> on 926 touch, i look for exit on this
[13:52] <+codehead> may need a blow-off top to get a shorting op
[13:52] <+codehead> extreme tick
[13:53] <+MK> Shorts ES @ 925.25 -> Add «« paper »»
[14:00] <@NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 924.00 --> + 0.75
[14:01] <+codehead> exit ES half +1.00 <paper>
[14:02] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 923.75
[14:05] <+codehead> exit remainder ES b/e <paper>
[14:06] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 925.50 -> small size
[14:06] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[14:06] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 926 --> + 2.25
[14:06] <@NihabaAshi> intuition due to late entry
[14:08] <OICU812> nice jb
[14:08] <+jbuch> thanks
[14:09] <+jbuch> figured i was bailing to early but looks like the right decision so far
[14:09] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 925.25 --> - 0.25
[14:09] <@NihabaAshi> lucky to escape that with only a 1 tick loss
[14:10] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 924.50 -> medium size
[14:10] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[14:15] <+rickf> interesting repost of a blog entry on trading styles, setups, and pychology
[14:15] <+rickf> http://eminiplayer.blogspot.com/
[14:15] <+rickf> just came across it, but the article is pretty good
[14:17] <+codehead> 11:16 codehead: amazing--$TICK has only hit -500 here at top of the hour and a few mins ago
[14:17] <+codehead> 11:16 codehead: almost entirely positive all day
[14:22] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 924.75 --> - 0.25
[14:22] <@NihabaAshi> volatility contracted and decided that would be a good spot to escape before a spike
[14:25] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 926.00 -> medium size
[14:25] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[14:25] <@NihabaAshi> other key markets trying to hold
[14:28] <Awash> $DJI hit july high, $SPX just barely by 1 or 2 index points
[14:33] <@NihabaAshi> volatility declining slowly
[14:33] <@NihabaAshi> it needs to decline faster and then stall to setup another volatility spike
[14:34] <@NihabaAshi> key markets not in sync right now
[14:35] <@NihabaAshi> Gold is contracting over the last few minutes
[14:38] <@NihabaAshi> As the trading day progresses...this grind upwards begins to look more and more impressive.
[14:38] <@NihabaAshi> hard to see that as it develops
[14:39] <@NihabaAshi> The pullbacks have been "shallow"
[14:39] <+Awash> very shallow, most of them in the morning
[14:39] <@NihabaAshi> Shallow enough to prevent taking big losses on losing Long positions
[14:40] <+Awash> hard to get entries on days like today
[14:40] <@NihabaAshi> slow enough in the grind upwards that losses on Shorts aren't big too
[14:40] <@NihabaAshi> awash...agree
[14:41] <+TradeLancer> everything seems to be slowing & consolidating so be prepared, not many oppyts today
[14:41] <+Awash> around 11CST my charts show multi-hour consolidation followed by creeper up move, no entries here, very difficult
[14:44] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 926.25 --> + 0.25
[14:44] <@NihabaAshi> punks
[14:44] <@NihabaAshi> It couldn't get over the 927 on the volatility spike
[14:44] <@NihabaAshi> had to dump it on the pullback
[14:45] <+TradeLancer> coming back into micro-trendline support, let's see how everything reacts...
[14:46] <@NihabaAshi> going to rest me eyes a little...that last trade was tough on the eyes via staring at the monitors for so long
[14:46] * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
[14:49] <+MK> Shorts ES @ 927.5 -> Add «« paper »»
[14:50] <+Awash> more volume pushing price higher, without a chance of entry
[14:57] <+TradeLancer> alot of volume changing hands, w/little $ movement. is this the footprint of algo-bots ?
[14:57] * NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi
[14:58] <@NihabaAshi>
[14:58] <@NihabaAshi> Not fair...market waited for me to leave to find some visine for the eyes
[14:59] <@NihabaAshi> Hopefully it pullsback a point or so to setup something
[15:00] <+OICU812> think there will be profit taking into the close?
[15:00] <+OICU812> might get crazy there
[15:05] <@NihabaAshi> On trend days...you really need to be in shape to watch the charts "all day" for trade opportunities along with having a ton of patience waiting for those opportunities to appear
[15:06] <@NihabaAshi> All day as in no breaks (away from the chart to rest).
[15:07] <@NihabaAshi> Today's continuation after the bounce off the Monday's intraday lows is still "trend continuation" price action.
[15:08] <@NihabaAshi> Until we see Lower Highs...I'll try to be more aggressive on the Longs with more size.
[15:08] <@NihabaAshi> in comparison to my short positions
[15:11] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 929.25 -> small size
[15:11] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:11] <@NihabaAshi> intuition
[15:11] <@NihabaAshi> didn't get 4 contracts in in time
[15:12] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[15:13] <+rickf> another up almost 30 point day
[15:13] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 929.50 --> + 0.25
[15:14] <@NihabaAshi> rickf...trend days like this is for intraday "position traders" or traders trying to hold a position all day.
[15:14] <@NihabaAshi> They only get a few days like this per month.
[15:15] <@NihabaAshi> To keep things in perspective.
[15:15] <+rickf> yeah no kidding -- i am srsly hinking of going back to a 5m chart, lay a trade on, and go away for the morning
[15:15] <+codehead> 931.5 area is a target
[15:15] <+rickf> too late now, obviously
[15:15] <+codehead> i expect to see it, got close that run
[15:15] <+OICU812> strong retrace this one
[15:15] <+OICU812> might start to get exhausted
[15:15] <@NihabaAshi> The key is that "they only get a few days like this per month".
[15:16] <@NihabaAshi> Simply, they usually get burnt the other trading days of the month
[15:16] <+MK> Shorts ES @ 929 -> Add «« paper »»
[15:16] <+OICU812> if you manage to break even the rest of the days, these days more than make up for profits
[15:16] <@NihabaAshi> Simply, determine what type of trader you are and don't worry about the grass that's greener elsewhere
[15:17] <@NihabaAshi> OCICU812...most don't
[15:17] <+OICU812> thats true
[15:17] <+rickf> is why i sat aside most of today - nothing looked compelling for me and i dont want to go chart-hopping lookign for setups
[15:17] <+OICU812> im moving more into swings, i either end up with a small prifit, BE or a big winner
[15:17] <+OICU812> today i missed it
[15:17] <+OICU812> but
[15:17] <+rickf> i think i need 2 charts; a trend one and a volatility chart
[15:18] <+rickf> looking at 512t and 5m depending on the pa
[15:18] <+OICU812> its been a wierd day for me today
[15:18] <@NihabaAshi> If you're a "day trader" and not a "position trader" on trend days...
[15:18] <@NihabaAshi> Best you can do is capture a few points and not worry about what could have been if you had been a position trader.
[15:19] <+rickf> exactly - a 2 or 3 pt target is nothing on days where you can get 10-15 point runs
[15:19] <+OICU812> what made me lack confidence either side today was the slowness
[15:19] <@NihabaAshi> I went into today to "day trade"...
[15:20] <@NihabaAshi> I'm happy with the points I've gotten so far.
[15:20] <@NihabaAshi> However, I'm not happy with the fact that it's a trend day because I have a "market tendency" that peg today with high probability of being a range day
[15:21] <@NihabaAshi> Market did it's own thing today
[15:22] <@NihabaAshi> There was a journal at EliteTrader.com where a guy was bagging 15 point ES trend days about 3 days per month.
[15:22] <@NihabaAshi> That's +45 points.
[15:23] <@NihabaAshi> However...he was losing 3 - 5 points on all the other trading day's in the month...
[15:23] <@NihabaAshi> Closing out each month in the red (at a loss)
[15:23] <+rickf> i wonder how those position traders do who make an entry in the morning off a large interval chart and just let their limit or stop get hit
[15:24] <+rickf> huge drawdown potential i think
[15:25] <+OICU812> ok back to flat
[15:26] <+rickf> short es 928.25
[15:26] <+OICU812> im waiting for a retrace to short
[15:26] <+TradeLancer> 3 pt es pullback? largest of the day?
[15:27] <+OICU812> retrace with a LH
[15:27] <@NihabaAshi> To be a good position trader or swing trader...you really need to know when trend days are most likely to occur so that you can cherry pick your days to trade in comparison to others that try to put on a position most trading days as if they had a "whack the mole" mentality.
[15:27] <@NihabaAshi> Swing traders with the "whack the mole" attitude usually have deep drawdowns
[15:31] <@NihabaAshi> weak support area
[15:32] <@NihabaAshi> looks like the support is about to fail
[15:32] <+OICU812> and here you have me waiting for a retrace
[15:34] <+rickf> out 927 +1.25
[15:35] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 927.25 -> small size
[15:35] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:35] <@NihabaAshi> intuition
[15:36] <@NihabaAshi> support held by one tick...lets see if it can strengthen
[15:36] <@NihabaAshi> If not...it'll be an easy position reversal on any volatility spike downwards.
[15:37] <+rickf> instinct says another drop
[15:37] <+rickf> but i could be wrong
[15:39] <@NihabaAshi> ES struggling to get that 928
[15:39] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 927.5
[15:42] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 928.50 --> + 1.25
[15:42] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 928.5 --> + 1
[15:43] <+OICU812> shorted 928.25
[15:43] <+rickf> is interesting to see the T&S data get "painted" in one direction before a huge move in the other
[15:43] <+rickf> talk about the head-fake of head fakes
[15:44] <@NihabaAshi> tough area to short right now
[15:45] <@NihabaAshi> if it powers up...there'll be enough pressure on the retail shorts to drive it to 930
[15:45] <luffy> shorted 27.25
[15:45] <+OICU812> doing a first scale 27.75
[15:45] <+rickf> hrmm not sure if that'll happen
[15:45] <+rickf> we'lls ee
[15:46] <@NihabaAshi> I would have liked to short @ 928.50 but missed the opportunity
[15:47] <+OICU812> not much strength to the short side
[15:47] <@NihabaAshi> ES also back within the key price area 928 - 926 where that most recent bounce occurred
[15:47] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 927.75
[15:48] <+OICU812> dont jinx my short jb
[15:48] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 927.25 --> - 0.5
[15:49] <@NihabaAshi> OICU812...want me to call the exchange and say there's a "suspicious package" at the front of the CME
[15:49] <+rickf> lol
[15:49] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 928
[15:50] <+rickf> given the anemic action on the TF I think this room here could corner that contract if we all traded it lol
[15:50] <+rickf> "ok....everybody BUY"
[15:50] <@NihabaAshi>
[15:50] <@NihabaAshi> true
[15:50] <+rickf> "ok....everybody.....SELL!"
[15:51] <@NihabaAshi> Crazy how last year I use to trade ER2 with 6 - 9 contracts easily on volatility.
[15:51] <+OICU812> back to flat
[15:51] <+OICU812> -.25
[15:51] <+OICU812> jb jinxed it
[15:51] <@NihabaAshi> In contrast, with TF...even a 3 contract order gets splitted
[15:51] <+rickf> yep
[15:51] <+rickf> i prefer fills at one time myself
[15:52] <+jbuch> touched my profit target but no fill
[15:52] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 929.00 -> small size
[15:52] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:53] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 929.75 --> + 1.75
[15:54] <@NihabaAshi> come on ES...everybody is going higher...join the club
[15:54] <+rickf> this has gotta be scaring option sellers right now
[15:54] <@NihabaAshi> geeesh
[15:54] <+OICU812> done for the day
[15:55] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 929.25 --> + 0.25
[15:55] <@NihabaAshi> ooouch
[15:56] <+codehead> 931-.75 needs to be touched
[15:56] <+codehead> but we got a lil dbl top now.. see about close
[15:57] <+codehead> MOC orders maybe
[15:57] <+luffy> stopped out
[15:57] <+luffy> i'm out.. cya guys
[15:57] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 929.50 -> small size
[15:58] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:58] <@NihabaAshi> intuition in reaction to prior trade
[15:58] <+rickf> quoth alan farley: "The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been ticking steadily higher since the first 15-minute "whoosh-down" bar and has nearly filled its gap. That's really unusual for a upside trend day. A close up near this level would post a decent-looking reversal bar."
[15:59] <+jbuch> so he is anticipating a down day tomorrow
[15:59] <+rickf> that's my take
[16:00] <+jbuch> hmm blew through the down trend line on the daily.
[16:00] <+jbuch> but a lot of trend days and bars r reversed. so who knows
[16:02] <+jbuch> don't really do chart patterns but this looks like a nice expanding triangle
[16:02] <+jbuch> with the upper trendline at 940
[16:03] <+jbuch> and the lower support line is the 200 day moving avg
[16:05] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 928.25 --> - 1.25
[16:05] <@NihabaAshi> top of that prior level of 928 - 926
[16:05] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 928.00 -> small size
[16:06] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[16:09] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 927.75 --> + 0.25
[16:10] <@NihabaAshi> sometimes I wonder when taking trades between 4 - 415pm est the stops are too easy to pick off when a few ticks away
[16:11] <+rickf> interesting - "woodie" is speaking @ ThinkorSwim today .... will be interesting to hear his style even tho i don't trade the cci anymore (not that i used his particular method)
[16:11] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 927.25 -> small size
[16:11] <@NihabaAshi> please no links to him
[16:11] <@NihabaAshi>
[16:11] <+rickf> lol
[16:12] <+rickf> tis their weekly members only thing
[16:12] <+rickf> i'm more interested in the platform update than hearing him, but why not, 'tis free
[16:16] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 927.00 --> + 0.25
[16:16] <@NihabaAshi> I'm faily sure it was him and two others that got mad when I posted my broker statements over dacharts.com
[16:16] <@NihabaAshi> I use to put on the images "look mom...no cci"
[16:16] <@NihabaAshi>
[16:17] <+rickf>
[16:17] <+rickf> the cult of cci
[16:17] <+rickf> if it works for someone, great
[16:17] <@NihabaAshi> They proceed to delete many or download then edit (remove the cci comment) and repost my statements
[16:17] <+rickf> not my thing now but it was helpfiul in learning along the way
[16:17] <@NihabaAshi> it was bizaare
[16:18] <+rickf> what if you put that quote on your statement image?
[16:18] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...I put it on my statement image.
[16:18] <+rickf> hee
[16:19] <@NihabaAshi> I finally got a "warning email" saying that dacharts.com was for CHARTS ONLY and not statements.
[16:19] <@NihabaAshi> However, others use to post statements there too and none of them were edited.
[16:19] <@NihabaAshi> Just mine
[16:19] <+rickf> take it as a badge of honor
[16:19] <@NihabaAshi> I guess that "look mom...no cci" was insulting
[16:19] <+rickf> hehehehe
[16:22] <+rickf> more on the VIX rising as the market rises today
[16:22] <+rickf> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... A1wNsSs8aQ
[16:24] <+jbuch> just reading your guys commentary on position trading in trending markets.
[16:25] <+jbuch> I always struggle with the what if I had just held that 1 from this morning thing and it always screws me up for a couple of days after
[16:26] <+jbuch> which r usually consolidation days.
[16:26] <@NihabaAshi> As traders...there will ALWAYS be the "what if".
[16:27] <+jbuch> so by the time I am sick of holding a portion at breakeven we get another trend day.
[16:27] <+jbuch> thats a fact wrbtrader
[16:27] <@NihabaAshi> I learned from my days of competing heavily in sports to have a plan prior to the game and stick to it.
[16:28] <@NihabaAshi> Later...after the game is over...if I stuck to the plan...
[16:28] <@NihabaAshi> I don't worry about the "what if".
[16:28] <@NihabaAshi> I went into today's trading session with the plan to do "day trades" and not try to hold positions longer than I normally do.
[16:28] <+jbuch> yup do what ur best at and stick to it.
[16:29] <@NihabaAshi> However, when I realized it was a trend day...
[16:29] <@NihabaAshi> I made some adjustments in my position size on several Long positions.
[16:29] <@NihabaAshi> I also held one Long for decent profits beyond my profit target as another adjustment.
[16:30] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...sure it would have been great to get Long out of the gate and exit the position into the close...
[16:30] <@NihabaAshi> However, I don't trade that way and therefore can't really get into the "what if" scenario.
[16:30] <@NihabaAshi> However...
[16:31] <@NihabaAshi> I will do the "what if" if I had thought today was going to be a trend day and wanted to hold positions all day...
[16:31] <+jbuch> yeah I hav been eyeballing my 913.5 entry all day
[16:31] <@NihabaAshi> If I didn't accomplish that goal..that's when I do the "what if" thinking.
[16:32] <@NihabaAshi> My point is that the "what if" thinking is best suited when we had a trading plan and then follow it and had we followed the trading plan it would have been a big profitable day.
[16:33] <@NihabaAshi> then = didn't follow it
[16:34] <@NihabaAshi> I took 3 trading breaks (rested for awhile away from the computers) today and all three times there was a volatility spike in the direction of a trade I had just exited almost within a few minutes after exiting that position.
[16:34] <@NihabaAshi> that's life...can't do anything about that
[16:36] <+jbuch> yup just have a plan and trade it
[16:37] <@NihabaAshi> I'm sure I'm going to get a few emails tonight by a few or see a few message posts at forums by guys bragging or pretending it was via the plan and they got +25 ES points....
[16:37] <@NihabaAshi> Same guys that are usually in the red by the end of each trading month.
[16:37] <@NihabaAshi> Had I hit a big trade today...
[16:38] <@NihabaAshi> It would have been LUCKY ONLY
[16:38] <@NihabaAshi> To do that...I would had to have deviated from my trading plan.
[16:39] <@NihabaAshi> Odds of that happening was low for me today after struggling with TF yesterday with the data problems.
[16:39] <@NihabaAshi> Here's my daily chart analysis for tomorrow...
[16:40] <@NihabaAshi> We cleared a big resistance area of 919.25
[16:40] <@NihabaAshi> I'll be neutral tomorrow between 928.25 - 907.25
[16:41] <@NihabaAshi> Meant 919.25 - 907.25
[16:41] <@NihabaAshi> Won't be bearish unless we drop below the 907.25 price area.
[16:42] <@NihabaAshi> My biggest trades usually occur when I'm "neutral" in my bias.
[16:42] <@NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow.
[16:42] * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
[16:43] <+rickf> cya
[16:45] <+rickf> ok i'm off too ... seeya tomorrow
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Session Close: Wed Jul 15 17:27:55 2009

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