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 Post subject: May 29th Friday 2009
 Post Posted: Fri May 29, 2009 3:36 pm 
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Trader / Forum Admin

Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2008 1:02 am
Posts: 3326
Location: Canada
Note: The chat log below represents the free chat room called #FuturesTrades that's hosted by TheStrategyLab.com and any one can use the chat room to post their trades. Simply, we do not know what trading methods are being used by some members while others are using methods we ourselves don't use.

Our primary job in the chat room is to moderate the room (keep the peace) and to ensure it's a spam free chat room. More information about #FuturesTrades @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm

In contrast, our fee-base clients are discussing market analysis or trade signals via concepts from our strategies in the private chat rooms called #VolatilityTradingTSL or #SwingTradingTSL.


------------------------

Session Start: Fri May 29 09:26:37 2009
Session Ident: #futurestrades
[09:26] * Now talking in #futurestrades
[09:26] <@X> [NihabaAshi] Announcement: The new trade posting script v3.7 (replaces v3.6) is posted at your forum in the "Announcements" thread.
[09:30] <+jigglyhippo> gm all
[09:30] <Nesi> good luck all
[09:30] <drt> gm
[09:32] <TraderG> gm every 1 and May You Trade With The Trend.
[09:32] <+TraderG> news @ 9:45 & 9:55
[09:32] <kosmipt> Shorts ES @ 908.75 «« simulator »»
[09:33] <+kosmipt> Covered all ES Short @ 907.50 --> + 1.25 «« simulator »»
[09:35] <+kosmipt> Long ES @ 906.50 «« simulator »»
[09:36] <+kosmipt> Exited all ES Long @ 907 --> + 0.5 «« simulator »»
[09:38] <+kosmipt> Long ES @ 908.50 «« simulator »»
[09:38] <werner> gm all
[09:40] <+kosmipt> Exited all ES Long @ 909.50 --> + 1 «« simulator »»
[09:40] <+Nesi> Shorts ES @ 910.00 -> Add «« simulator »»
[09:41] <+kosmipt> got out too early
[09:41] <+kosmipt> original tgt was 911.50
[09:43] <+kosmipt> wow
[09:43] <+kosmipt> nice volatility
[09:43] <@NihabaAshi> Yep...fast moving too
[09:43] <+Nesi> bulls are tired
[09:44] <jbuch> gm all
[09:45] <+kosmipt> Shorts ES @ 905.50 «« simulator »»
[09:45] <+kosmipt> Covered all ES Short @ 904 --> + 1.5 «« simulator »»
[09:45] <+Nesi> May Chicago PMI 34.9 vs 42.0 consensus, prior 40.1
[09:46] <+Nesi> post from another room
[09:46] <+kosmipt> oh, totally forgot about news
[09:46] <+kosmipt> thx
[09:46] <+Nesi> short da world....LOL
[09:46] <+Nesi> on CNBC now..fwiw
[09:46] <+kosmipt> consumer sentiment in 10 mins also
[09:46] <@NihabaAshi> weak support area
[09:47] <Ralph_> what a mess.
[09:47] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 905.75 -> medium size
[09:47] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[09:47] <+Ralph_> we'll be retesting lows shortly
[09:48] <+Ralph_> unless real good cons senti
[09:48] <+TraderG> 09:46ET U.S. MAY CHICAGO PMI 34.9% VS 40.1% IN APRIL [MKW]
[09:48] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 904.75 --> - 1
[09:48] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 904.50 -> large size
[09:48] <+kosmipt> done for the day guys, have a nice day
[09:48] <@NihabaAshi> 6 only
[09:49] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 903.00 --> - 1.5
[09:50] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 903.50 -> large size
[09:50] <@NihabaAshi> 6 only
[09:54] <@NihabaAshi> tightening stops...it's going to move fast...just down know which direction from current levels.
[09:55] <+Nesi> May University of Michigan-prelim 68.7 vs 68.0 consensus, prior 67.9
[09:55] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 904.25 --> + 0.75
[09:56] <+Nesi> numbers out
[09:56] <+Ralph_> ok, non-event mich
[09:56] <+Nesi> *DJ Reuters/Univ Michigan End-May Sentiment 68.7; Apr 65.1
[09:56] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 906.00 -> large size
[09:56] <@NihabaAshi> 6 only
[09:58] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 906.25 --> + 0.25
[09:58] <@NihabaAshi> So far this morning it's been all about the news...volatility should start to level off around 1005am est after everything sinks in.
[10:00] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 906.75 -> medium size
[10:00] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[10:02] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 907.00 --> + 0.25
[10:03] <@NihabaAshi> another stop out :(
[10:04] <fcb98292> Short ES 907
[10:04] <+fcb98292> tgt 906
[10:04] <@NihabaAshi> volatility drying up fast
[10:04] <+jigglyhippo> Shorts ES @ 907.00
[10:04] <+fcb98292> flat
[10:04] <+TraderG> what is your measure for volatility?
[10:05] <+jigglyhippo> Covered all ES Short @ 905.00 --> + 2.00
[10:08] <@NihabaAshi> your asking that question in the wrong room :)
[10:09] <+jbuch> could u post ur answer in the swing trading room as well wrbtrader
[10:11] <+TraderG> sorry
[10:12] <+TraderG> posted in the CORRECT ROOM :)
[10:12] <@NihabaAshi> thanks
[10:13] <LP> almost got one for free ;) heheee
[10:13] <+Ralph_> testing 908, third time's the charm?
[10:13] <+Nesi> bulls are tired..imho
[10:14] <+Ralph_> so far no lower lows.
[10:15] <+Nesi> oil getting nuts again...geez
[10:16] <+Nesi> gold getting closer and closer to 1k
[10:17] <@NihabaAshi> Retesting that opening price again :(
[10:17] <@NihabaAshi> Hopefully it doesn't become a magnet resulting in a tight trading range
[10:23] <+Ralph_> seems to be well supported, damn
[10:23] <+Ralph_> u think we'll reverse after testing hod?
[10:26] <@NihabaAshi> I hope not especially with us not too far above that opening price
[10:26] <@NihabaAshi> Would like to see it go higher before it (if) reverses back down.
[10:26] <+LP> end of the month could still get da chop
[10:27] <@NihabaAshi> Gold making new highs
[10:30] <+Nesi> gold now..new highs
[10:30] <+Nesi> 980.20
[10:30] <+LP> oil up dollar down, inflation going to be fun:(
[10:31] <+Ralph_> dont cry, it was 1.5 two hours ago
[10:33] <+Ralph_> es, might be heading lower here
[10:33] <+Nesi> you guys see the vol on gold comex june?
[10:33] <+Nesi> 180 360
[10:33] <+Nesi> it s growing
[10:34] <+Nesi> come on ES...drilll
[10:37] <+Ralph_> some pushback, eh
[10:37] <+Nesi> :/
[10:37] <+Ralph_> feel like summer trading :/
[10:37] <@NihabaAshi> I have a 909.50 as the opening price of the regular hours trading session
[10:38] <+Nesi> i am very short bias
[10:38] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> No gurus, no head traders. Members use this room to document (trade journal) their trades and thoughts from one trade to the next trade. 2009 chat logs stored @ viewforum.php?f=20 and chat logs prior to 2009 are stored @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ArchivedPastTrades.htm
[10:38] <+Nesi> bit better now...Raplh
[10:38] <+Ralph_> are you short, nesi?
[10:39] <+Nesi> yes
[10:39] <+Nesi> from yesterday
[10:39] <+Ralph_> wow
[10:40] <+Nesi> what a fight in this area
[10:47] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 907.00 -> medium size
[10:47] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[10:51] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 908.00 --> - 1
[10:53] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 908.00 -> medium size
[10:53] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[10:55] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 909.50 --> + 1.5
[10:56] <@NihabaAshi> that was an easy profit target (open price of the day)
[10:57] <@NihabaAshi> volatility drying up again :(
[11:03] <+Ralph_> did so well in the morning, gave it all back in the last two hours :(
[11:03] <+Ralph_> messed up on execution :(
[11:03] <+TraderG> GM shares fall below $1 for first time in 76 yrs
[11:04] <+TraderG> IT'S A BARGAIN :))
[11:04] <+werner> Long NQ @ 1420.75
[11:04] <+Ralph_> lol
[11:08] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 907.00 -> medium size
[11:08] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[11:08] <+Nesi> Shorts ES @ 906.50 -> Add «« simulator »»
[11:08] <+werner> Exited all NQ Long @ 1418.75 --> - 2
[11:09] <@NihabaAshi> :(
[11:09] <@NihabaAshi> volatility didn't last long
[11:11] <@NihabaAshi> surprise surprise :)
[11:11] <@NihabaAshi> she shows her face again
[11:12] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 906.00 --> + 1
[11:12] <+TraderG> i think that VOLATILITY is a transvestite :)
[11:13] <@NihabaAshi> More like a double agent...always conspiring with longs and shorts.
[11:13] <+TraderG> hahahaha
[11:16] <@NihabaAshi> At least we're a few points below that opening price...
[11:16] <@NihabaAshi> If it can stay that way...trading conditions will improve.
[11:18] <@NihabaAshi> Oil and Gold looks a little tired...it's starting to impact the Eminis
[11:21] <@NihabaAshi> At least everybody is currently in sync
[11:21] <@NihabaAshi> That should help prevent the chop
[11:28] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 908.00 -> small size
[11:28] <@NihabaAshi> 1 only
[11:28] <+werner> bbl
[11:29] <@NihabaAshi> geeesh
[11:29] <@NihabaAshi> :(
[11:30] <@NihabaAshi> My biggest trade of the day is on a 1 contract position :(
[11:30] <@NihabaAshi> Covered ES Short @ 904.50 --> + 3.5
[11:31] <+Ralph_> why do you even vary size so much
[11:31] <@NihabaAshi> risk varies :)
[11:31] <+Ralph_> depending on the stop distance?
[11:32] <@NihabaAshi> Simply, to trade the exact same size is to assume that the price action never changes or that risk never changes.
[11:32] <@NihabaAshi> depending on the volatility
[11:33] <@NihabaAshi> Other factors come into play too...personal stuff.
[11:33] <@NihabaAshi> For example, if your the type that likes it to be quiet at home when your trading...
[11:33] <@NihabaAshi> Your most likely not going to load the boat up with contracts if the plumber is at your house banging on the pipes :)
[11:34] <+Ralph_> i calculate the amount based on my historical stats
[11:34] <+Ralph_> and usually trade same size for the day
[11:34] <+Ralph_> readjust next day
[11:35] <+Ralph_> loading up the boat = sure way to blow up.
[11:35] <@NihabaAshi> No
[11:35] <@NihabaAshi> Loading up the boat doesn't imply your over your risk.
[11:35] <@NihabaAshi> It implies your at the max of your risk.
[11:36] <+Ralph_> one spike - and you're done
[11:37] <@NihabaAshi> Depends on your risk max.
[11:37] <+Ralph_> how much of your account total do u risk per trade?
[11:37] <@NihabaAshi> My tolerance today is 6 contracts...my max for today.
[11:37] <@NihabaAshi> I can easily afford to trade 60 contracts.
[11:38] <+Ralph_> how much you can afford - is completely irrelevant
[11:38] <@NihabaAshi> Sure it is because it's my 3%
[11:39] <+Ralph_> it has to do with ur expectancy
[11:39] <+Ralph_> basically, profit factor and win%
[11:39] <@NihabaAshi> It has to do with your "risk tolerance".
[11:39] <+Ralph_> what is "risk tolerance"?
[11:39] <+TraderG> we had a discussion about this topic b4. would someone care 2 add their oppinion as 2 why someone who has a consistant trak record cannot increase his/her size?
[11:40] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...
[11:40] <+Ralph_> traderg: depends on the parameters
[11:40] <+Ralph_> lets say, 60% of ur trades are winners
[11:40] <+Ralph_> and average winner = average loser
[11:40] <+Ralph_> theoretically, given you are very consistent, you can bet 10%+ of your account per trade
[11:41] <+TraderG> 10% will killu
[11:41] <+TraderG> kill you
[11:41] <+Ralph_> probably even higher, but i underplay it, to give some leeway
[11:41] <@NihabaAshi> TraderG...without being too theoretically...lets use your actual profit stats...
[11:41] <+Ralph_> traderg: kelly ratio for those stats is 20%
[11:41] <+TraderG> they r not mine
[11:41] <+TraderG> they r ralph_'s
[11:41] <@NihabaAshi> Your account size or number of contracts is determine by your broker.
[11:42] <+Ralph_> i just took random stats for the ease of calculations
[11:42] <@NihabaAshi> He saids you can trade no more than 3 contracts based upon margins.
[11:42] <@NihabaAshi> In contrast, your money management rules (whatever they may be) saids you can trade no more than 1 contract
[11:42] <silo> wrbtrader you can afford to trade 60 contracts if you want to? surely one can... but that will screw up your consistency i'm sure... i've never seen you go over 9contracts... mostly large size for yo uis 7-9... so saying that you can afford to trade 60 ... -2 es pts would be -6000. your typical win is like 500-2000 bucks a day.. surely a -2 60 contracts trade would greatly skew that consistency
[11:43] <@NihabaAshi> You've been profitable consistently for 5 months and your account has triple over those months.
[11:43] <+Ralph_> you have to compute probability of ruin, and kelly's ratio.
[11:43] <@NihabaAshi> You also know a particular trading environment shows that statistically you WILL lose money if traded.
[11:43] <+Ralph_> going from there, you choose what amount of risk is right for you.
[11:44] <+Ralph_> now, that applies stats are gathered for the same strategy.
[11:44] <@NihabaAshi> Now lets pretend the market environment has enter that type of trading conditons that you statistcally go into a drawdown period.
[11:44] <@NihabaAshi> Are you going to increase your position size ?
[11:44] <+Ralph_> if you trade a few different strategies, stats are going to be muddy, best to separate them
[11:44] <@NihabaAshi> Yes or No ?
[11:45] <+jbuch> Long SPY @ 91.05
[11:45] <+Nesi> not me
[11:45] <@NihabaAshi> I know my answer...
[11:45] <@NihabaAshi> No.
[11:45] <@NihabaAshi> :)
[11:45] <+Ralph_> why then even trade during that period?
[11:45] <@NihabaAshi> Not trading is still taking a position as in ZERO
[11:46] <@NihabaAshi> That's the point...your consistently profitable and you CANNOT ignore your stats about the drawdown conditions.
[11:46] <@NihabaAshi> Well...at least you shouldn't ignore it just because you've been consistent prior to those conditions developing :)
[11:46] <@NihabaAshi> Most do ignore it :(
[11:47] <+Nesi> like football.. know when to play defense and ofense
[11:47] <@NihabaAshi> Bingo
[11:47] <+Ralph_> and how do you KNOW it ?
[11:47] <+Ralph_> you have absolutely no idea how well will you be trading tomorrow.
[11:47] <+Nesi> because i watch football all the time :)
[11:47] <+Nesi> just kidding
[11:47] <+Ralph_> football is not trading
[11:47] <@NihabaAshi> I'm not talking about individual days...
[11:48] <@NihabaAshi> I'm not over an extended period.
[11:48] <+Ralph_> if your stats are gyrating wildly over an extended period - something is seriously wrong.
[11:48] <+Ralph_> time either to fix, or replace strategies.
[11:48] <@NihabaAshi> Your a stats guys...you should EASILY be able to review your historical performance and determine what type of market conditions your strategies perform well in.
[11:49] <+Ralph_> the only problem, I am the strategy :)
[11:49] <@NihabaAshi> For example...trend guys know they don't do well on tight trading range days.
[11:49] <+Ralph_> I scalp, NihabaAshi
[11:49] <@NihabaAshi> Just the same...range traders know they don't do well on trend days.
[11:49] <+Ralph_> there is no set strategy, I scalp like a madman.
[11:49] <+Ralph_> this way, i have a large sample, every day.
[11:49] <+Ralph_> and it does not fluctuate much over larger periods.
[11:49] <@NihabaAshi> Lets pretend your a trend trader and you recognize right now at this very moment the market is RANGING.
[11:50] <@NihabaAshi> Are you going to increase your size, decrease your size or no trades ?
[11:50] <+Ralph_> then you shouldn't be in the market, and wait for a trend signal?
[11:50] <@NihabaAshi> Most likely one of the latter two.
[11:50] <@NihabaAshi> My point is that you can't use CONSISTENCY as the ONLY RULE for determining your position size.
[11:50] <@NihabaAshi> That's a receipt for disaster.
[11:51] <+TraderG> i think the question was - why not increase your size proportionately?
[11:52] <+TraderG> if one trades 1-6 profitably , why not go to 2-12? or 3-18?
[11:52] <@NihabaAshi> I just told you why.
[11:52] <@NihabaAshi> Consistency cannot be your only determining factor.
[11:52] <+Ralph_> TraderG: it depends on your account
[11:52] <@NihabaAshi> There are other factors.
[11:52] <+Ralph_> and consistency means nothing
[11:53] <+Ralph_> if you are consistently making 80% winning trades
[11:53] <+Ralph_> but your losers are 10x your winners
[11:53] <@NihabaAshi> Many variables to determine if its time to increase your size
[11:53] <+Ralph_> you can't increase your size much
[11:53] <@NihabaAshi> Here's a personal example...most retail traders experience...
[11:53] <+TraderG> whay is MUCH?
[11:54] <@NihabaAshi> Lets pretend you got bills to pay...
[11:54] <+Ralph_> TraderG: sizing and money management are the easiest problems to solve in trading
[11:54] <+Ralph_> read up on kelly's ratio
[11:54] <@NihabaAshi> Most of your profits you've been taking out to pay your bills.
[11:54] <+Ralph_> but bear in mind that markets can become catastrophic quick, and make your own adjustments.
[11:54] <@NihabaAshi> However, you've been consistently profitable.
[11:55] <+TraderG> Kelly works very well in theory but no REAL trader will use his formula for real trading. that would e suicide.
[11:55] <+Ralph_> TraderG: kelly works.
[11:55] <+jbuch> Exited all SPY Long @ 90.99 --> - 0.06
[11:55] <@NihabaAshi> Should you increase your position size eventhough your account balance is basically the same after your living expense deductions ?
[11:55] <@NihabaAshi> Most do :(
[11:55] <+Ralph_> as i've said, you obviously take few things into consideration, aside from kelly.
[11:56] <@NihabaAshi> Reason why when I hear someone talk about "compounding"...
[11:56] <+Ralph_> TraderG: why does kelly not work in practise?
[11:56] <@NihabaAshi> That's someone that either has no bills and still living at home with Mom & Dad or someone living off of someone.
[11:56] <+TraderG> Ralph_ - you derive your Kelly from your won stats. Right?
[11:56] <+jbuch> Shorts SPY @ 90.99
[11:56] <+Ralph_> no, entire track record
[11:57] <+Nesi> market pressure coming in
[11:57] <+TraderG> yes . that is what i mean
[11:57] <+Ralph_> losers and winners, relative sizes of each, size of your bankroll, and frequency
[11:57] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 904.00 -> medium size
[11:57] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[11:57] <+Ralph_> also, I keep eyes on how many losers I have in a row, and what are the odds of my ruin
[11:58] <@NihabaAshi> weak support area developing :(
[11:59] <+silo> intuition?
[11:59] <@NihabaAshi> no...it's a real support
[11:59] <+Ralph_> this support could be quite strong actually, we took off here like a rocket
[12:00] <+silo> no i mean the trade
[12:00] <@NihabaAshi> no
[12:00] <+silo> i've been short stocks for a few hours
[12:00] <+jbuch> Covered all SPY Short @ 90.91 --> + 0.08
[12:00] <+Nesi> vn
[12:01] <@NihabaAshi> tighting stop...volatility drying up
[12:01] <@NihabaAshi> I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon
[12:01] <@NihabaAshi> hopefully it takes price down and not up
[12:04] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 905.25 --> - 1.25
[12:05] <@NihabaAshi> volatility spike but it's already losing it's steam
[12:09] <@NihabaAshi> Gold and Oil showed a little life over the last 5 minutes
[12:09] <+Ralph_> btw
[12:09] <+Ralph_> someone told me that this room used to be password protected... why did you decide to take off the password?
[12:10] <@NihabaAshi> Othernet glitch or anti-virus program problem...when it's password protected...some members complained they couldn't get in even when they were using the correct KEY.
[12:10] <@NihabaAshi> Now that password is gone...they don't have problems logging in.
[12:11] <@NihabaAshi> Also...
[12:11] <@NihabaAshi> I haven't had an spam attacks as of lately.
[12:11] <@NihabaAshi> If the spammers return...room gets password protected again.
[12:12] <OICU812> if it gets password protected again, where can we find the password?
[12:13] <@NihabaAshi> Go to this thread...join and then qualify @ viewforum.php?f=5
[12:14] <+jbuch> Long SPY @ 91.14
[12:16] <@NihabaAshi> Usually when the room gets to +30 members...that's when the spammers start to show up.
[12:16] <@NihabaAshi> right on cue :(
[12:18] <@NihabaAshi> creeper up movement
[12:20] <+Ralph_> ur in montreal, nihabashi?
[12:21] <+jbuch> Exited all SPY Long @ 91.19 --> + 0.05
[12:21] <@NihabaAshi> several hours north of Montréal
[12:21] <+Ralph_> oh i see
[12:23] <@NihabaAshi> this may be as good as it gets until after 2pm est
[12:24] <+Ralph_> it's friday.
[12:24] <@NihabaAshi> so far...a range day that has the range slowly getting smaller and smaller
[12:25] <@NihabaAshi> it's also the end of the month
[12:26] <+OICU812> smaller for sure
[12:26] <+OICU812> trades are taking forever
[12:26] <@NihabaAshi> We officially hit the summer trading session next week.
[12:26] <+OICU812> you expect it to be a slow summer?
[12:27] <+Ralph_> with GM going bankrupt?
[12:27] <+Ralph_> hell no
[12:27] <@NihabaAshi> As usual...lots of pin ball machine price action
[12:27] <+silo> well we are at a decision area on the daily chart
[12:27] <+silo> the market is simply trying to come up with a decision right now i think
[12:27] <+silo> on whether we do a retracement of this off teh bottom rally
[12:28] <+silo> so i'm not surprised we see some sideway action here
[12:28] <+silo> considering how many people have money since the bottom rally
[12:28] <@NihabaAshi> If we can get some good volatility in the summer...it'll setup a nice 4th quarter of trading
[12:29] <@NihabaAshi> If that happens...I'll be increasing my overall position size to exploit it like I did last year.
[12:29] <+OICU812> last couple of summers have been fun
[12:30] <@NihabaAshi> last year was great
[12:31] <@NihabaAshi> We may not see that type volatility for many years to come.
[12:32] <@NihabaAshi> If your trade strategy and profit performance shows you statistically perform well in "rising volatility" like last year...
[12:32] <@NihabaAshi> It was not a time to stay on the sidelines :)
[12:32] <@NihabaAshi> However, if your stats show your performance declining during rising volatility...
[12:33] <@NihabaAshi> Last year was a good time to stay on the sidelines or reduce your position size dramatically if you were trying to adapt.
[12:34] <+Ralph_> 09 4Q was easier on the retail guy because lots of funds panicked.
[12:34] <+Ralph_> 08 4Q
[12:34] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...when large amounts of money if flowing OUT or INTO the markets...
[12:34] <@NihabaAshi> It's good trading times :)
[12:35] <+OICU812> yeah, i broke my all time records a couple of times last summer
[12:36] <+OICU812> you could not belive that it got even better than the one you broke
[12:36] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...I had to go back to the dot com boom days to see profit levels like that
[12:36] <@NihabaAshi> Unfortunetly...for investors...last year sucked big time :(
[12:37] <@NihabaAshi> So did pension plans
[12:37] <+OICU812> Nihaba, if you had to describe in as few words as possible your trading style, how would you do so?
[12:37] <@NihabaAshi> Sporadic
[12:37] <+OICU812> ok, thats one i did not expect
[12:38] <@NihabaAshi> That's because of my family schedule situation here at home.
[12:38] <+OICU812> oh? im fairly new here so dont know much about it
[12:39] <@NihabaAshi> Lets put it this way...I don't have consistent trading periods.
[12:39] <+OICU812> I understand
[12:39] <@NihabaAshi> Simple...one day I may trade a total of 3 hours...
[12:39] <@NihabaAshi> another day just 1.5 hours
[12:39] <@NihabaAshi> Another day 5 hours.
[12:40] <@NihabaAshi> My family dictates my trading schedule
[12:40] <+Nesi> some pressure again
[12:40] <+OICU812> i understand
[12:41] <+OICU812> hopefully i'll be able to contribute some to the room
[12:41] <+OICU812> im my case I usually trade reversals. Do great most of the time except when we get big trends
[12:41] <+OICU812> still end up positive but dont like those days much
[12:42] <@NihabaAshi> I trade anything and everything :)
[12:42] <+Ralph_> OICU812: you miss out on long trends, u mean?
[12:42] <+OICU812> not necesarily
[12:43] <+Ralph_> then?
[12:43] <+OICU812> i get chunks of them
[12:43] <+OICU812> not all of them
[12:43] <+Ralph_> i dont know anyone who doesnt have that problem hehehe
[12:43] <+OICU812> :)
[12:44] <+OICU812> i do much better without trends
[12:44] <@NihabaAshi> I think GM news will control this afternoons price action :(
[12:44] <+Ralph_> that's just in your head.
[12:44] <+Ralph_> as long as you are making money - you are doing well.
[12:44] <@NihabaAshi> Too much stuff being said on the networks abot GM
[12:44] <+OICU812> probably right Ralph_
[12:44] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> No gurus, no head traders. Members use this room to document (trade journal) their trades and thoughts from one trade to the next trade. 2009 chat logs stored @ viewforum.php?f=20 and chat logs prior to 2009 are stored @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ArchivedPastTrades.htm
[12:45] <+Ralph_> GM is 0.5% of dow
[12:45] <@NihabaAshi> would like to see more network talk about Oil and Gold
[12:46] <@NihabaAshi> Heck...more talk about the U.S. Dollar or Euro Dollar would be nice
[12:47] <+silo> market is about to do a hardcore move soon
[12:47] <@NihabaAshi> It's definetly been corking up for the past hour
[12:49] <+Ralph_> i'm done for the day.
[12:49] <+Ralph_> good luck everyone.
[12:50] <+Nesi> you too..Ralph.. have a good weekend
[12:52] <@NihabaAshi> If we can get 1 new set of higher lows or lower highs...
[12:52] <@NihabaAshi> We'll pop.
[12:54] <+Nesi> just a wild guess.. imho, probably we close under 900 today
[12:55] <@NihabaAshi> Well...with all the GM stuff and sad homeowner news this week...
[12:55] <@NihabaAshi> If we go higher today in comparison to the open price...
[12:55] <@NihabaAshi> I will be surprise
[12:58] <Guest> Exited all ES Long @ 906.5 --> + 21 «« paper »»
[12:59] <+Guest> out yesterday
[13:00] <@NihabaAshi> Big contrast in the news this week...
[13:01] <@NihabaAshi> Consumers feel more confident that things are getting better even though credit card debt, home deliquencies and foreclosures are rising.
[13:01] <@NihabaAshi> Gas prices is rising too and pension plans are getting hit big time.
[13:01] <@NihabaAshi> Yet...we "FEEL" things are improving.
[13:02] <@NihabaAshi> :)
[13:03] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 908.00 -> small size
[13:03] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[13:03] <@NihabaAshi> intuition
[13:04] <@NihabaAshi> I'm keeping a tight rope on this one
[13:06] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 907.75 --> - 0.25
[13:06] <+OICU812> guys, can someone point me to the script for posting trades? Ive waited to see the link but either i always miss it or its not cycling
[13:07] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...its for members only.
[13:07] <@NihabaAshi> Gotta join the forum and then qualify
[13:07] <@NihabaAshi> Members get access to the trade posting script and the password
[13:08] <@NihabaAshi> I'll repost the link again...
[13:08] <@NihabaAshi> viewforum.php?f=5
[13:09] <@NihabaAshi> Title of that thread is "Registration Instructions for #FuturesTrades Chat Room".
[13:09] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 907.00 -> small size
[13:09] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[13:10] <@NihabaAshi> volatility increasing
[13:11] <@NihabaAshi> tight rope again
[13:11] <@NihabaAshi> When this thing pops...it should produce a good price movement of several points
[13:12] <+Nesi> hopw downwards
[13:13] <@NihabaAshi> Oil showing some strength while Gold showing some weakness
[13:13] <+Nesi> gold comex all time high was 1003 bucks?
[13:17] <+Nesi> come on....drillllll
[13:17] <@NihabaAshi> bad timing for family return from the mall
[13:18] <+Nesi> wrbtrader..you need this http://www.bose.com/controller?event=DT ... &src=k9677
[13:19] <+Nesi> Bose® noise reduction and quality sound for travel, work and home
[13:19] <+Nesi> ;)
[13:21] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 907.00 --> 0
[13:25] <@NihabaAshi> I have something similar...not good for trading...makes me feel like I'm in a "dark cave" all by myself :)
[13:25] <+Nesi> lol
[13:26] <@NihabaAshi> I'm one of those people that sleeps with the window open so that I don't feel like I'm in a stuffy room and the noise outside doesn't bother me.
[13:27] <@NihabaAshi> However, drop a penny in the room and I'll wake up.
[13:27] <+Nesi> to pick it up? :)
[13:27] <@NihabaAshi> :)
[13:28] <@NihabaAshi> we got that new set of higher low in place now
[13:29] <+jbuch> Long SPY @ 91.26
[13:29] <@NihabaAshi> lets see if we can get some price action now
[13:30] <+Nesi> want to see how long does it last
[13:31] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 909.00 -> small size
[13:31] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[13:32] <@NihabaAshi> losing its steam :(
[13:33] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 909.50 --> + 0.5
[13:35] <@NihabaAshi> I'm bullish now but would like for it to pullback now lower than 908.50 to setup a possible re-entry into the Long
[13:36] <+jbuch> Exited all SPY Long @ 91.42 --> + 0.16
[13:37] <+jbuch> done for tha day hav a good one
[13:37] <+LP> take care jb
[13:37] <+Nesi> to me looks like a trap..
[13:37] <+Nesi> like pulling the rug soon.. again..just wild guess on my part
[13:39] <+Nesi> big thunderstorm happening here in sunny isles
[13:42] <+jbuch> broke the wedge came down and tested the upper trendline from the top and rebounded off with high vol
[13:43] <+jbuch> all systems point up in my opinion
[13:44] <+jbuch> plus all the news that u guys were talking about earlier has been digested and the markets are moving up
[13:44] <+jbuch> just a guess who knows
[13:44] <+jbuch> the tape will tell the truth eventually :))
[13:46] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 909.75 -> small size
[13:46] <+jbuch> have a good weekend all
[13:46] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[13:46] <+Nesi> you too...jbuch
[13:46] <@NihabaAshi> intuition
[13:48] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 909.00 --> - 0.75
[13:49] <@NihabaAshi> almost to a weak support area
[13:52] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 908.25 -> small size
[13:52] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[13:57] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 908.50 --> - 0.25
[14:00] <@NihabaAshi> oh oho
[14:01] <+Nesi> 2 pm
[14:01] <+Nesi> show your face...ES!!!
[14:01] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 907.50 -> medium size
[14:02] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[14:02] <@NihabaAshi> I'm on a big interval...requires more patience...not sure if I have patience right now.
[14:04] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 908.50 --> - 1
[14:06] <@NihabaAshi> when I'm unwilling to do my usual position reversal...that means I think its getting choppier
[14:06] <@NihabaAshi> :(
[14:07] <@NihabaAshi> still ranging and another higher low is now in place
[14:08] <@NihabaAshi> got an order in...lets see if it fills it
[14:12] <+jbuch> Long SPY @ 91.36
[14:12] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 909.25 -> medium size
[14:13] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[14:18] <@NihabaAshi> If I was a scalper I would have exited a log time ago
[14:18] <+jbuch> Exited all SPY Long @ 91.39 --> + 0.03
[14:19] <+jbuch> really really leaving this time :)
[14:19] <@NihabaAshi> :)
[14:20] <@NihabaAshi> That 909.50 opening price showing it's magnet appeal again :(
[14:20] <@NihabaAshi> 5 recent trades in that price area...4 losses
[14:21] <@NihabaAshi> meant 3 losses and could get another
[14:23] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 908.50 --> - 0.75
[14:24] <@NihabaAshi> that's the magnet...1 - 3 tick losses
[14:24] <@NihabaAshi> same with profits...1 - 3 tick profits
[14:27] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 907.50 -> small size
[14:27] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[14:27] <drt> l es 07.75
[14:29] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 908.00 --> + 0.5
[14:31] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 908.00 -> small size
[14:32] <+drt> cl es 08
[14:32] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[14:33] <@NihabaAshi> Exited ES Long @ 907.00 --> - 1
[14:33] <@NihabaAshi> Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 907.00
[14:33] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[14:33] <@NihabaAshi> volatility rising
[14:37] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 906.75 --> + 0.25
[14:39] <@NihabaAshi> weak support level
[14:39] <@NihabaAshi> so far not attracting too many Longs
[14:40] <@NihabaAshi> If it breaks...should be good for at least a point
[14:41] <+Guest> Shorts ES @ 906.75 «« paper »»
[14:45] <+Nesi> better now
[14:45] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 906.00 -> medium size
[14:45] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[14:47] <@NihabaAshi> 1 tick late entry may cause someth problems on this trade for me
[14:48] <+Nesi> come on...drriillll
[14:48] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 905.75 --> + 0.25
[14:49] <@NihabaAshi> may get lucky and catch a re-entry on a small bounce upwards
[14:50] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> No gurus, no head traders. Members use this room to document (trade journal) their trades and thoughts from one trade to the next trade. 2009 chat logs stored @ viewforum.php?f=20 and chat logs prior to 2009 are stored @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ArchivedPastTrades.htm
[14:51] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 905.00 -> small size
[14:51] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[14:51] <@NihabaAshi> volatility spike
[14:51] <+Nesi> gooo
[14:51] <@NihabaAshi> If it can hold its steam...it'll go lower
[14:53] <+Nesi> to me still feels closing under 900
[14:53] <+Nesi> developing a little "trend" now..imho
[14:54] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 904.00 --> + 1
[14:56] <@NihabaAshi> volatility drying up again
[14:56] <@NihabaAshi> geeesh :(
[14:57] <+Nesi> 3 pm may do the trick..imo
[14:58] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 905.50 -> small size
[14:59] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[14:59] <@NihabaAshi> If the magnet of 909.50 is going to show it's ugly head again...
[15:00] <@NihabaAshi> Now is the time to do it while I'm Long :)
[15:01] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 905.25 --> - 0.25
[15:03] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 905.25 -> small size
[15:03] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:06] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 906.50 --> + 1.25
[15:07] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 907.00 -> small size
[15:07] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[15:07] <@NihabaAshi> intuition
[15:07] <@NihabaAshi> trying to catch a continuation
[15:09] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 907.00 --> 0
[15:10] <@NihabaAshi> not much trading left in the trading day...need to keep a tight rope on things.
[15:10] <@NihabaAshi> even if it causes a lot of breakeven trades
[15:10] <+codehead> short 1419.75 NQ small <paper>
[15:11] <+codehead> stop over 1423
[15:11] <+codehead> so a little wide here
[15:11] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 907.25 -> small size
[15:11] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[15:11] <+codehead> exit NQ +.25 <paper>
[15:12] <+codehead> taking too long
[15:12] <+codehead> doh
[15:12] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 907.25 --> 0
[15:12] <+codehead> short 2c NQ <paper> 1419.75
[15:13] <@NihabaAshi> two good tries and only the broker made money :(
[15:13] <+codehead> exit half +1 <paper>
[15:13] <+codehead> stop 1420.75 remainder <paper>
[15:14] <+codehead> the broker makes you broker
[15:14] <@NihabaAshi> :)
[15:15] <@NihabaAshi> First time I've heard that saying...that's a good one.
[15:15] <+codehead> lol
[15:15] <+codehead> i made it up :-P
[15:15] <+codehead> lower stop to 1420.25 <paper>
[15:16] <@NihabaAshi> 1 point range over the past 7 mins
[15:17] <+codehead> lower to b/e <paper>
[15:17] <+codehead> exit NQ +.75 <paper>
[15:19] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 907.50 -> small size
[15:19] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[15:20] <@NihabaAshi> market starting to feel sorry for me...
[15:20] <+codehead> hehe
[15:20] <@NihabaAshi> It's going to give me a winner out of that range we just saw :)
[15:20] <+codehead> cuz you try so hard!
[15:20] <@NihabaAshi> :)
[15:21] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 908.00 --> + 0.5
[15:22] <@NihabaAshi> I was careful too...kepted my losing trade to a -0.25 and then had 2 breakevens
[15:22] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 906.75 -> small size
[15:22] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:22] <@NihabaAshi> intuition
[15:22] <@NihabaAshi> tight rope on this one
[15:25] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 907.00 --> - 0.25
[15:27] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 907.25 -> small size
[15:27] <@NihabaAshi> 3 only
[15:27] <@NihabaAshi> volatility rising
[15:29] <@NihabaAshi> tighten the rope again
[15:29] <@NihabaAshi> trail @ profit
[15:30] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 908.50 --> + 1.25
[15:35] <@NihabaAshi> geeeesh...suck back down again like quicksand
[15:37] <@NihabaAshi> higher low in place...
[15:37] <@NihabaAshi> we just need one more to setup a nice volatilty spike...
[15:41] <+TraderG> we could b in 1 right now
[15:41] <+OICU812> maybe this is the break we wanted right into the close
[15:41] <+TraderG> holly cow............
[15:41] <+OICU812> hope you guys got some of it
[15:41] <+TraderG> these last 1.5 hours can make you dizzy
[15:42] <+OICU812> still profits to be made, just needs patience
[15:42] <+OICU812> a lot of it
[15:42] <+TraderG> P&P=$$$$$
[15:47] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...a ton of patience is needed in this type of price action
[15:50] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 911.25 -> small size
[15:50] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:51] <@NihabaAshi> tighten rope on stop
[15:52] <@NihabaAshi> trail @ profit
[15:53] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 912.25 --> + 1
[15:54] <+Nesi> have a great weekend all :)
[15:55] <@NihabaAshi> Where was this volatility earlier today :(
[15:55] <@NihabaAshi> Could have been a great trading day.
[15:56] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 913.25 -> small size
[15:56] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[15:57] <@NihabaAshi> trail @ profit
[15:58] <@NihabaAshi> tighten trail
[15:59] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 917.50 --> + 4.25
[15:59] <@NihabaAshi> wow...still going
[16:00] <+TraderG> Great job Mark
[16:00] <@NihabaAshi> geeesh
[16:00] <+TraderG> when I grow up I want 2 b just like u :)
[16:00] <@NihabaAshi> What the hell is that ?
[16:00] <+TraderG> your recovery
[16:00] <@NihabaAshi> It must be news related.
[16:00] <+TraderG> oh
[16:01] <+TraderG> i c
[16:01] <@NihabaAshi> Haven't seen this type of volatility spike into the close for a very long time.
[16:01] <+TraderG> I am not complaining
[16:01] <@NihabaAshi> :)
[16:01] <@NihabaAshi> I got my profit goal of the day via that last trade.
[16:01] <@NihabaAshi> Perfect timing
[16:02] <+TraderG> Angelina Jolie hospitalized briefly for minor injury
[16:02] <+TraderG> maybe this was it
[16:03] <+TraderG> the market went up when they realized that her injuries are not life threatening
[16:04] <+OICU812> well that was fun
[16:05] <+TraderG> i am sweating here
[16:06] <+OICU812> all done for today i guess.
[16:06] <+OICU812> would not dare keep anything for the weekend
[16:06] <+OICU812> not with these moves
[16:07] <+TraderG> every 1 have a great weekend
[16:07] <+OICU812> have a good weekend everyone
[16:07] <@NihabaAshi> Could have been related to GM and UAW report around 3pm est
[16:07] <+TraderG> maybe short covering
[16:07] <@NihabaAshi> A lot of it :)
[16:08] <+OICU812> yeah
[16:08] <@NihabaAshi> That's a big time short squeeze
[16:08] <+OICU812> it should head back with the same strength
[16:08] <@NihabaAshi> still squeezing too :)
[16:08] <@NihabaAshi> This is setting up for a very interesting Monday trading.
[16:08] <+OICU812> sure is
[16:08] <+OICU812> i'll be attentive on sunday
[16:09] <@NihabaAshi> Everybody will be reviewing the GM, UAW, FIAT stuff...
[16:09] <+TraderG> i have a funny feeling that we will go above the high of May 8 and then when every 1 will sigh a sigh of reliefe the market will tank
[16:09] <@NihabaAshi> I'm going light on Monday out of the gate until I see a big price movement.
[16:09] <+TraderG> there is no real reason 4 optimism
[16:09] <@NihabaAshi> 1 - 2 contracts only
[16:10] <+TraderG> credit card defaults will surface soon
[16:10] <+TraderG> and bond problems as well
[16:11] <+TraderG> not that it will make a difference for day traders but it will 4 long term holdings
[16:11] <+TraderG> AND THAT WAS THE WEEKLY COMENTARY that you should NOT pay attention 2 :)
[16:11] <@NihabaAshi> I'm loading up on GM stock...
[16:11] <@NihabaAshi> Will buy about 500k
[16:11] <+OICU812> i usually dont care about what lies behind moves, just try to grab the moves acoording to my tech. analysis. But just out of curiosity, how the hell can it go up if bad news are still coming out everywhere?
[16:12] <+TraderG> OICU821 the blind r leading the blind
[16:12] <@NihabaAshi> That's a joke and doesn't look like anybody saw the joke :(
[16:12] <+OICU812> :)
[16:13] <@NihabaAshi> Anyways...now that GM is officially a penny stock (cough, cough and more cough)...
[16:13] <+OICU812> lol
[16:13] <+OICU812> you think anohter company may buy it out?
[16:13] <+TraderG> who is going 2 pay the HUGE interest payments for the money that the US government printed
[16:13] <@NihabaAshi> Well...they way it's going downwards in price...
[16:13] <+TraderG> GM will stay under a diff name and diff structure
[16:14] <@NihabaAshi> We may easily become major shareholders with a few grand purchase :)
[16:14] <+TraderG> after bankrupcy
[16:14] <+TraderG> i want a seat on the board
[16:14] <+OICU812> you get one for 500 bucks
[16:14] <+TraderG> hahahaha
[16:16] <+TraderG> should have bought some call options on GM
[16:16] <+TraderG> $0.11
[16:16] <@NihabaAshi> Anybody know anyone that made a killing on shorting these auto stocks ?
[16:17] <+TraderG> my cousine made $ on Ford
[16:17] <+TraderG> going long
[16:18] <@NihabaAshi> I know one guy that shorted GM from 20 down to 12 and only exited because he needed the money for a down payment on a house.
[16:18] <@NihabaAshi> I bet he wished he had stayed short...couldn't bought a much bigger house :)
[16:18] <@NihabaAshi> couldn't = could'uv
[16:19] <@NihabaAshi> I never thought I would see the day the auto makers slowly becoming "penny stocks".
[16:20] <+TraderG> all the best. I am out of here
[16:20] <@NihabaAshi> Me too
[16:20] <+codehead> man, what a close
[16:21] <@NihabaAshi> Take care all...it was a tough trading day until the last hour when hell broke loose
[16:21] <@NihabaAshi> Glad some patience finally showed up for me.
[16:21] <+codehead> i looked over and saw 927 ES!!! was grabbing for the mouse, ended up click short NQ a making a few, but ES blew thru a major at 924.50
[16:22] <+codehead> lol i scrolled back and saw you 500k GM comment
[16:22] <@NihabaAshi> :)
[16:27] <+OICU812> well guys
[16:27] <+OICU812> have a good weekend
[16:31] * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

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